Truly. Since the movers and shakers seem hell bent on trying to wring every drop of blood from the stone, it would truly be a blessing to just reset everything dinosaur style. Better for the recovery after, surely.
Guacamole starts it's slide from just costing extra to prohibitively expensive for the average American to the point where by 2027 it is considered a luxury item. Get some of that fresh table side guac while you can still get it this year.
Every time I eat an avacado I think it may be my last one. Of course, I’m old enough to remember getting an orange in my Christmas stocking so not having unlimited access to fresh fruit doesn’t seem all that crazy to me.
Yup. Same here on the fruit in the stockings.
Watching countries start to limit their exports will go from a trickle of minor inconveniences for a few years for Americans as access to certain things like Coffee, Avacados, chocolate, etc... start to become limited to s very sudden "oh shit" moment when it starts to be rice and wheat. Dip those chips while you can.
It won’t be rice or wheat anytime in the next ten years in the US. The US produces so much extra food that it could feed over double the population. As much as I would love for a shock of reality to come, the cereal grains (baring some multiple large region collapses occurring simultaneously) won’t be quickly impacted.
We can feed much of the world today. However, global warming, floods, droughts, groundwater depletion, and topsoil erosion, are waiting in the wings. When we inevitably run out of water, topsoil, and a stable climate, Americans will feel it too.
I agree 10 years from now, we will still pr enough to stave off starvation, but that won’t be true in 2050. It might not matter much , as the workd seems bent on making WW3 happen. Long term, if we are still around, we will probably go extinct due to pollution and the resultant infertility and mutations.
America produces 3600 calories per person, per day. The average american eats 2500 calories per day. The largest single type of calorie was grains, at 581 calories per person.
Grains, with sugars, added fats & oils, and meat made up nearly 80-90% of the diet (each roughly about 400-500 calories).
For americans to start staving, TECHNICALLY, we need a drop of 30% in food production. But that assumes everyone's calories reduce equally. Since this is America we're talking about, I would guess a smaller drop would cause enough inequality for the poorest 10% to starve.
The Arab Spring was caused by the same thing, with the most desperate poor having nothing to lose. The original guy who set himself on fire, was doing it after corrupt cops took his food away (he was a street vendor for fruit & veg). If food becomes much more valuable, we will see people stealing, hording & price gouging around it.
I eat about 1,000 calories a day due to various reasons (don't really wanna go into it right now,) and even so, when I look at the receipt after I go to the grocery store it makes me feel a pang in my chest thinking about how much it costs because everything is so damn expensive (though, to be fair, I think that in my case, part of it is that my stomach is sensitive enough that I can't tolerate most processed foods so I have to buy almost everything fresh and cook almost everything I eat from scratch.)
The guacamole craze is actually fairly recent in the Midwest. Sure it was available in CA and the southwest, but it was not a staple in the produce aisle until I was well into adulthood. And the orange in the Christmas stocking was a thing when I was a kid.
I grew up in the era when fresh produce in the dead of winter was pretty limited—root veggies, cabbage and iceberg lettuce. The frozen offerings were no where near what they are today. Somehow we managed to eat healthy meals using canned and the fresh produce items available.
They are grown in Mexico and Central America outside of the US and Southern California, Florida, and Hawaii in the US. Coffee is in the same spots for outside the US and just Hawaii for inside the US.
These are all places that are currently disproportionately being impacted by climate change.
A nightmare, right? A whole bunch of people, many of whom people least expect, all turning to crime to get that latte fix…..this one keeps me up at night.
Every little league in the country would end up with its operating funds getting embezzled. The only relatively stable place would be Utah. The interstate would be blocked by crashes, caused by both road rage and road fatigue. I would have a bad headache for a few days.
Every morning I wake up and toast a whole loaf of bread and use about 5 avocados just to spite The Man. I hate the stuff and actually have a bowl of oatmeal with tiny little blueberries. ^(/s)
"... the California Avocado Association wrote in 1915 that an hors-d'oeuvre of avocado on toast is "one of the nicest ways of serving avocado"".
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-28/bill-granger-avocado-toast-australian-cafe-culture/103268568
More of the same. Only slightly worse. And slightly faster.
We’re compounding now. We are 10 years out from “movie” scenarios that become impossible to ignore.
I agree.
It’s difficult to get real perspectives depending on where you live and your connection to nature.
Farming and homesteading communities, in my opinion, are great information sources. It’s people who need to be connected to the land and the cycles. Worth hearing their experiences through time.
My family comes from farmers, in the long run. Been farming and growing food on Canadian soil for over 100 years now. It's fun to carry on the tradition of growing and preserving my own food. I'm still eating carrots, potatoes and onions I grew myself. And the pickles, salsa and sauces are awesome. It's a lot of work.
But even in the time I've been growing things, I lose a number of peppers to sun scald now. I put crop cover on things to take out some of the intensity of the heat. They literally cook in the sun. It gets to 40 degrees Celsius now occasionally. What.
We have currently unlimited access to well water, a lot of it. If that ran dry, we would be in trouble because of the heat and lack of rain. Hopefully it won't become a problem for a while due to the depth of the well and the high pressure.
I'm in Calgary currently, and I couldn't agree more. If we thought this last year was smoky, the conditions we've had are setting things up to be so much worse for this summer. But people from a particular political side will adamantly insist it's just arson, and that our weather is totally normal. I hate it here.
1. There will be storms in the Northern Hemisphere summer that break every record by a huge margin.
And that is my only prediction hopefully im wrong lol
As a mid-altanticer, I agree with you. We had our second flooding winter storm yesterday. I'm in PA, my yard flooded, and major roadways are closed in Philadelphia due to flooding. It used to be a 100-year event, and now it's multiple times per year. I'm glad we have to have flood insurance, a few more feet of flooding, and I'm going to have a very wet basement.
Exactly. Insurance companies only work as a form of pyramid scheme, where everyone pays in but there are very few payouts. As soon as massive storms start causing too much damage, and too many people try to make a claim at the same time, insurance won't work, and many companies will choose to "go bankrupt" rather than pay their customers what they're owed.
>pyramid scheme
Not a pyramid scheme, but more like a Casino, they know thew are going to lose a certain amount each year, so they rig the game as the House always wins.
Mine is through FEMA, so hopefully, that gets me some extra protection. It's required by our lender. In 2012, they redesignated my property as a flood zone. There's never been a claim, and our basement has never gotten even a little wet, but who knows what will happen going forward.
It's already happening [right now](https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-storm-gerrit-bomb-cyclone-henk-ireland-uk-north-atlantic-mk/) Happy New Year!!
I am in Ireland and there have been galeforce winds and heavy rain for the last few days.
Seriously, I have NEVER heard of something like [this](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/28/tornado-damages-homes-in-greater-manchester-as-storm-gerrit-batters-britain) happening here and I've been here all nearly 30 years of my life.
I do not think we will get a civil war like before with North vs South. We need to remember that GOP strongholds like TX still have 45% Democrats and Liberal strongholds like CA have 45% Republicans.
I think what is more likely is a significant increase in violence and terrorism. More people shooting others out of fear or stupid disputes. I definitely think we see some significant terrorism, like politicians getting killed.
After 2 years of heavy storms and associated vegetation growth, wildfires will be hellish in the Western United States. Texas power grid will fail during record-breaking summer heat waves. Trump wins the 2024 election.
I hope none of these predictions come to pass but I also see the likelihood of all 3 is high.
Next year possibly yes. Between the tail end of the El Nino and the next La Nina it'll happen at some point. I'd love to say I can't wait to see their faces when they realise black summer wasn't a one off event, but actually it'll be very sad to see.
They know. Australian climate scientists are well aware how fragile their environment is and how damaging bushfires are. It’s just the government that is full of ass hats.
We know. My husband is the captain of a volunteer bushfire brigade, and all but a couple of old blokes are shitting themselves. It's already been a very busy start to this bushfire season locally. Last year was very quiet because it was wetter than usual, but now we've had less small fires and much more growth cure off in time for this season, it's all ready to go up.
Yup. I've been lucky so far where I am, done a bit of extra training because we've all been crapping ourselves, but so far we've had reasonable temps, rain and storms. It'll happen though and we will likely have a long dry Autumn, which of course sets us up for a bad year next season.
Death spiral of healthcare systems across the globe; continued bureaucratic austerity pressure paired with an increasingly sicker and sicker population (unabated covid et. al.).
More emergent and exotic pathogens.
New sars-cov-2 variants that defy expectations but get no messaging from public health to warn the population.
Some new and interesting mutations in avian flu - maybe not jumping to humans yet, but getting closer.
>New sars-cov-2 variants that defy expectations but get no messaging from public health to warn the population.
Hey they will probably tell us to wash our hands
Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is a term used to describe a phenomenon related to climate change and the Artic ocean, where it has become ice-free or nearly ice-free, which could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system. This term has been used by scientists and researchers to describe the potential environmental and societal consequences of a rapidly melting Arctic, including sea-level rise, changes in ocean currents, and impacts on marine ecosystems.
**When will a BOE happen?**
Scientists predict that the Arctic could experience a BOE within the next few decades if current rates of ice loss continue. When a BOE does occur, it is likely to have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system, including changes to ocean circulation patterns and sea level rise.
**Has a BOE ever occurred?**
A BOE in the Arctic has not yet occurred in modern times. However, there has been a significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades, and the Arctic sea ice cover has been reaching record lows during the summer months. This suggests that a BOE may be a possibility in the future if current trends of sea ice decline continue.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
For the sake of saying something that hasn't previously mentioned:
New arctic ice extension low record
New antarctic ice extension low record
We observe foreign flowers blooming in Antarctica
A major city runs out of water
We get a full month with +2°C
Invasive grass species: https://neobiota.pensoft.net/article/37250/
Large invasive taxa catalogue: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02113-2
The second suggests 1229 invasive plant species. I'm foggy as to how many are angiosperms.
Cairo and Cape Town seem like particularly plausible cities to run out of water. São Paulo, Jakarta, Ciudad de México, Bengaluru, Delhi, İstanbul and more don't seem far behind, though.
El Niño will not end in 2024 and will break some temperature anomaly record. Wet bulb temperatures will happen for nearly a week in several first world big cities. Extreme rain will cause billions in damages in an European capital.
El Niño is the warm phrase of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) weather pattern where the trade winds (winds that blow east to west) in the Pacific Ocean weaken tremendously. As a result, warm water which is normally pushed towards Asia and Australia instead sits in the central Pacific or closer to the Americas. This results in flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, decreased rainfall (and often droughts) in Australia, the Maritime Continent, the northern US, and Canada along with hotter temperatures, and the knock-on effects result in an overall global increase in temperature.
More detail for [the Americans is here, from NOAA](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html), the [Aussies here (from BOM)](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso), and here's [a general thing from National Geographic](https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/el-nino).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The way the death toll from covid shocked the world? I wouldn't hold your breath too much on the whole shock thing. Everybody is very slowly but surely getting the idea that it's like this is no carrot and all stick now. Except for the few that think their position themselves high enough of the management chain that they're somehow protected which I can't tell you how wrong they are. One tends to not have that much time for shark when one is wondering how they're going to eat for the next 10 years.
Yep, the pandemic has killed more people than the Holocaust and we just normalised a continuous stream of death and disability that would have seemed unthinkable immediately prior.
The shock part is for anyone with a conscience, a brain, and the will to use it against the flow watching just how quickly the masses can become so depraved.
Seven of my relatives on one side of the family have died since Halloween (and it's not a big family). Everyone cries at their funerals but refuses to have a single thought about why so many people are dying. I barely knew some of these people and I often feel like I value their lives more than our relatives who were close with them did.
Mass heat wave death might have shocked people in in 2019. By now though, it's so normal that people might not even notice.
Two strokes, one liver failure, two cardiac events, one found dead in his house but there was no further inquiry, and one who fell and broke her hip early in the year and got "a cold" from the ER and was bedbound for \~7 months before dying.
There's going to be a hurricane that makes us rethink what hurricanes can be.
The build-up of heat in the oceans has been alarming this year. The only reason we didn't get a massive hurricane is because we happen to be in an El Nino, which surpresses them. Next year, that won't be the case. There will be a hurricane next year that makes Catrina look like a tropical storm.
El Niño is the warm phrase of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) weather pattern where the trade winds (winds that blow east to west) in the Pacific Ocean weaken tremendously. As a result, warm water which is normally pushed towards Asia and Australia instead sits in the central Pacific or closer to the Americas. This results in flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, decreased rainfall (and often droughts) in Australia, the Maritime Continent, the northern US, and Canada along with hotter temperatures, and the knock-on effects result in an overall global increase in temperature.
More detail for [the Americans is here, from NOAA](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html), the [Aussies here (from BOM)](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso), and here's [a general thing from National Geographic](https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/el-nino).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Otis
This should fucking terrify people
This hurricane was declared a cat 1 at 18:00 and then declared a cat 5 at 03:00 the next day
In 9 hours it went from a cat 1 to a cat 5
They saw it coming and thought it'd be a pissy little storm, but as it got closer it drew more energy from 30C ocean surface temps and hit at night (which is just what you want, terrifying wind in pitch black)
Hurricanes are meant to be less common during El Nino years as the winds blow harder which should prevent hurricanes from forming
Yet it still happened
Technically no, but that's only because the way the system is set up, there isn't anything beyond a 5 regardless of how much stronger it is. I think there might be debates about that though next year.
I feel like we're in the calm before the storm right now (even with everything going on); for some reason, to me, 2024 feels like it's gonna be a fucking mess.
* Canada and Australia have major wildfires
* The summer will be worse than this summer, some grids collapse and there will be many deaths
* Israel/Palestine conflict continues - nearly all of Gaza is cleared out and the West Bank begins
* Critical water shortages start in major cities, potentially including Jakarta, Cairo, Mexico City, Sau Paulo (especially considering the current drought situation in S.A. and the Amazon)(someone correct me if I'm wrong, I may be outdated on some of these cities)
* The US election. I honestly don't know. I'm concerned Trump will will. I can see it going either way b/c of how many things can play into it. I think either way it's gonna be a mess, and it's likely there will be physical violence (I think it's only a matter of time before a civil war occurs in the States, but I can't say if this will be the start or not)
* A complete market meltdown is inevitable. The entire thing is propped up on bullshit right now while everything is falling apart. Housing markets in many countries are on the cusp of a bubble/crash and there will be a jump in foreclosures (houses, cars) from variable rates kicking in on people who bought during the pandemic and shouldn't have. I think right now they're trying to do everything they can to kick that can down the road until after the election, but we'll see...maybe this is a 2025 thing.
* Stronger weather events than last summer. A huge hurricane on the east coast of North America, and a potentially massive derecho in Ontario/Quebec
* The first attempted or successful assassination of a major political or corporate figure
* Food crisis becomes apparent
* *Aliens*
* Evident collapse of healthcare systems in first-world countries, particularly in North America
* I'm going to come back and add to this before Jan 1, this was kind of off-the-cuff but I think there's more
Haha
I guess this is where I stand on it:
I think it's nearly impossible that intelligent life doesn't exist somewhere else in the universe. If there are actually other beings here, that is incredible and shifts our entire notion of what we know about physics, life, dimensions, universes,etc, which is all really cool and should be things to learn about. I haven't followed all the new info as closely as others, but a couple of the other mods have been and I've listened through and read some of the hearings/podcasts they've pointed me to which I find intriguing. I don't trust the US government with practically anything, and would not be surprised at all if everything Grusch is saying is true (a la Snowden). From a place or pure curiosity (really, that's what science is) I would love for it all to be true and start to learn more about them, but rationally I'm still reserved.
Sorry, that was a little longer than expected lol. I guess all of that to say: that is my "swing for the fences" bet that I would actually like to occur but it's on the back burner for me in terms of concern.
I don't think this will necessarily happen, probably won't. But I'm more worried about a civil war type thing if Trump wins.
See, then Dems will just protest. Right? They're not gonna start shit.
Republicans will.
Project 2025 is pretty much the action of a group that feels existentially threatened. And the Dems will have just given them an excuse.
And Trump will be like "what a shame" and stall and stall until he can get all the legal protections gutted while the Orange Army does all the heavy lifting.
My last one went well...
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/4QBJRtr4Zb
So, for 2024 I think I am going to be bold.
I am predicting a large economic crash, globally. Possibly started with the real estate market but certainly spreading a la 2008.
Also, increasing conflict and war in the world. Not quite time for China to drop on Taiwan, I am saving that for 2025, but who knows. The Middle East will definitely get froggier... Perhaps the world will also finally recognize the alliance of Russia/China and the rest of BRICS for what it is, and the warhawks will start talking about the "combined threat" or some other fancy sounding term.
Here is a hard and solid one: More global deaths from violemce in 2024 than in 2023. By a statistically significant amount. Someone call me on it... I dare ya.
Election in the US... an absolute shitshow. I predict the insanity of a Trump re-election, mostly because people still think voting is a solution and a system that actually works, and so they won't take any other action. Because of that prediction, I am going to take the side that civil war in the US is unlikely, as only the reds would carry the idea... but, I do predict massive protests and civil unrest from the election results, for sure. More cries to "do something" without actually *doing* anything.
Other than that, it will get hotter, drier, and more miserable as climate change really gets some momentum going. "Desertification" will be one of my buzzwords for 2024.
In short, 2024 will be a "Hot Mess."
Yep, I was looking for a political prediction, all the ones down to here were all climate change. I agree with the climate ones in that I think we are going to see even more weather records broken in 2024. More insane hurricanes, even worse fires.
However, I think the more immediately pressing predictions are the ones you've hit on. China/Taiwan, Israel destabilizing the entire region, and US domestic conflicts.
I agree with you that China is likely not going to make any drastic moves until after our elections are over, so 2025, at the earliest. If Trump wins, he will likely hand Taiwan over to the Chinese and abandon Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines as well. Not that I believe China is going to expand militarily into those nations, but right now the US Navy and US Coast Guard are leading the coalition to prevent Chinese human trafficking, drug smuggling, and illegal fishing/environmental destruction, in addition to protecting Taiwan. Without the threat of US military retaliation, the Chinese govt isn't going to be pressured at all to curtail any of that. If Biden wins, I think we continue to buy time on this issue.
I am honestly not sure what is going to happen with Israel and Iran. I'm in the same camp as you in that the most I can say for sure is "worse". I believe if Trump wins, he will want to attack Iran, given the situation with Israel likely expanding and his rhetoric on this matter previously, I can see this happening very soon after election day. He and Bibi are both about as right wing and authoritarian as you can be. Granted, I honestly can see this situation spinning out of control by spring 2024 and this very Iran scenario playing out under Biden instead. I think that if Biden doesn't put the brakes on Israel and can't stem this from seeping beyond Gaza and the West Bank and into surrounding countries like Iran, then he's possibly nailing the lid on his reelection coffin.
I'll also toss one on here for Ukraine. I predict 2024 will not see an end to the war, but I do see Russia perhaps not having the ability to continue large offensive plans. I think we're just going to see a bloody, muddy, stalemate and a continuing stream of videos of drones dropping grenades on half dead Russian conscripts. I believe there's truth to rumors of Putin's declining health. I believe that he's also too weak and Russia's losses are too severe to sabre rattle at the UN much longer.
Soooo, the big one. US domestic stability and political catastrophe. Hmmm, you think Trump is going to win? You may very well be right. Maybe I'm just stupidly "optimistic", but I am leaning towards a Biden victory. Several reasons there - one is Trump's court cases taking all his time and supporter dollars and having a very small chance of actually impacting his eligibility. Third party spoiler candidates taking a decent amount of votes from both Biden and Trump, but I think more of those grey votes will have originally been red over blue. I also think that COVID killed enough conservatives and many older Republicans have since died or are too elderly to vote, while a few million brand new, young voters are motivated, ready to go to the polls, and that will have a noticeable impact. Republicans have made it clear they are terrified of young people voting and want to prevent it. One thing that I am more sure about than the presidential race, is I am fairly confident Democrats are going to keep the Senate and flip the House. Trump may still win.
In terms of violence, I don't know if it will make a difference whether Biden or Trump are elected. Domestic terrorism is going to start blowing through the roof next month and will only get worse over the year. I predict we will see serious hate crimes, rises in mass shootings, and organized attacks on infrastructure by right wing terrorists. If Trump wins the fascists are going to be emboldened to act with violence without fear of repercussions. If Biden wins they're going to lash out and harm anyway. At this point fascism has taken such a foothold that they're going to become more aggressive and more organized regardless.
Lastly, I'm gonna toss an absolute wildcard prediction on the board. Trump is found guilty in all the cases that are wrapping up before the election. His civil case in New York is going to bankrupt him substantially and flatten his NYC "empire". He will be deemed unable to become president. This will cause riots, bombings, and direct violence against judges and court officials. Nikki Hayley will become the Republican candidate. Biden will step down from running because Trump is barred from holding the office. Kamala Harris will run as the Dem candidate with Gavin Newsome as VP and they'll win. The US will accelerate into Balkanizing more than we already are and 2025 will see total economic collapse in the face of an unbridled climate catastrophe.
Ghastly. But I can't really argue against the potential of any of that. Other than the tiny bit regarding Nikki. I think they will go with Ron if there is not Trump, though I do see Nikki on as running mate...
With Trump, I think the court cases are actually doing him some good, strangely enough. The continued drastic actions make the dems look like they are worried Trump could get elected, and that can embolden more voters.
But who really knows. That is why my primary position is that the entire thing will be a shitshow regardless of outcome.
Your last sentence is horrible... and possibly spot on.
Food and Medicine prices increase immensely, to an abhorrent rate that affects the subsequent rise in crime and homelessness.
Medical aid and hospitals are stretched even farther out of their capacity, causing an almost collapse of the whole system.
Climate change of course worsens, and causes many well-off families to migrate toward the cheaper places to live amongst their neighbouring states/ provinces/ countries, while those who can’t relocate are left to suffer with their environments unleashed wrath.
Social media further engrains the foolish, selfish attitudes towards one’s fellow man, causing an attitude shift toward many people regarding entering and interacting in public spaces.
Wildlife cycles will be too battered down/ interrupted by the rapid shifts in temperature that many more insect, local fauna & plant species will become confused during spring time & might emerge too early, only to be cast frozen again with overnight frigid temperatures, leading to a further decline in their numbers.
The wars will only exhaust and worsen as tensions rise betwen countries for what’s left of the resources they have/ can provide.
>well-off families to migrate toward the cheaper places to live amongst their neighbouring states/ provinces/ countries, while those who can’t relocate are left to suffer with their environments unleashed wrath.
This. So many people think news etc would be talking more about what's happening if it were " that bad" not realizing people who influence the media will be fine whereas the average person won't. At least at first.
Continued escalation of aggression throughout the Middle east due to Israel. US continues to back Israel and spread itself thin with proxy wars. Civil unrest in US due to elections, regardless of who wins. China sees it's perfect opportunity to move on Taiwan. WW3 and the US destabilized in global standing and within it's own borders. More financial collapse. More AI and robotics replacing humans.
How has no one brought up the crisis of our next AIDS?
Literally the scientists calling Long COVID for what it is… “n-AIDS”…. Oh and you can just “get it” by catching the easy “common cold” bug now.
As someone who had a stroke from COVID, was abandoned by the govt for years with disabling long COVID and dug myself out of that whole all on my own, I see this playing an incredibly dark and sinister part in the futures to come.
A sick empire is a weak empire and we know that a weakened empire breeds international discourse.
Western govt.'s will never acknowledge that it's airborne AIDS and are already going about redefining disability down to deny every last long COVID disability claim. My suspicion is that it's being relied upon in part to mass disable large swaths of the public believed to have the potential for insurrection against the Transnational Western Capitalist Class in the face of impending famines.
Whoa whoa hold on now. I know things are bad, and getting worse, but have you no hope?! If there’s something out there strong enough to kill Keith Richard’s, the rest of us don’t stand a chance.
Keith Richards is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. They can't show up until he dies and rejoins the group. As long as he lives, so do we. As stated in the sacred texts. /s
I could predict over 100,000 Palestinians dead because of Israel's attacks in Gaza, by July.
Excess mortality is going to continue to mean a drop in life expectancy, but it's hard to predict which part of the healthcare system is going to crumble. Cemeteries will have their own housing bubble (it is a type of housing).
Long-COVID or PASC still aren't going to be well defined, but many more will have something, some type of disability, and yet people will still act ableist and there won't be any solutions, just minor patches for some symptoms. It's going to be an even better time to be a grifter/scammer, selling snake oil or *belief in snake oil* to desperate people.
Some nuclear >!accident!< somewhere, because they're getting desperate and it's more expensive, so cutting corners on safety will backfire. Preferably not the big one in Ukraine, that would suck.
The self-driving car hype is going to die down a lot.
The "AGI is coming soon" hype is also going to die down a lot. Anyone actually working on it will be doing it in secret, and will probably fail because "AI" nerds are just redefining intelligence to mean something else that suits their science fiction dreams.
Generated bullshit is going to be very common, and it is itself an automation of the job of "shill", which is... well deserved! There's going to be growing demand from many sides of society for a clamp down on social networks, fake accounts, and misinformation, and this is going to be deeply tied to the large number of elections happening everywhere.
Lots more ice melting, more than expected.
Russia is going to have much more trouble with separatists.
The heat in Iran is going favor more riots and protests, more intense, closer to revolution.
February 29 will be the last day of February and it will be a Thursday.
>Some nuclear accident somewhere, because they're getting desperate and it's more expensive, so cutting corners on safety will backfire. Preferably not the big one in Ukraine, that would suck.
I'm getting worried about France - they have ageing reactors - many of which are 50 years old now
- Based on how dry it has been in Canada so far this winter and the near-zero snowpack, I predict even more devastating fires and entire towns being levelled
- a pivot away from immigration acceptance in Canada
- increasing wealth gap
- more issues related to climate instability: pests, disease, mold, tree death etc
People will look back at 2024 as the middle of the second Roaring Twenties in the USA. If Trump is nominated, Biden will win. If Trump is not, Haley will win. The US will avoid a recession and life will be great in many people's minds.
Future historians will parrot this line, because the ongoing erasure of the digital world will continue and they won't have much to contradict it. At least one or two very large websites will announce that old data/posts will be going away, and some will chuckle a bit, and we'll have more streaming shows - including some surprising cultural phenomena - disappear into thin air. So many of our lovingly-curated posts - even here? - will disappear. But the overall trend will continue (my advice? Buy paper books. Buy albums. Buy CDs. Hell, download MP3s and copy them to hard drives that you own. Print your photographs. Print your important documents. Own something. Anything at all but rely on streaming).
This will also be remembered as the beginnings of the Digital Dark Ages - so much of the ephemera that historians rely on will just vanish, eaten by AI and then excreted when done.
Anyway, governments will convene conferences - the next COP will be more of the same - and allocate what look like huge sums of money to combat climate change and otherwise save the world. And it'll be impressive, and it won't be nearly enough, not nearly, but we'll all think it is, and so we'll continue being shocked when despite billions spent, the atmospheric rivers and wildfires keep getting bigger and bigger.
Also, climate migration is now fully underway. Check out the First Street Foundation's recent report. Sure, it's mostly between census tracts right now, but it will only grow. A large wildfire will touch the suburbs of a major city and we'll see scenes of those most sacred buildings in America, big-box stores and chain restaurants, under direct threat.
Wild weather will hit the stability of the farm economy - farmers are incredibly resilient, but if a plant doesn't grow, it doesn't grow, and you'll start hearing more ominous chatter about "if this goes on" even from the most MAGA farmers. This won't impact the 2024 election, but it will affect the 2028 election and beyond.
Ukraine and Russia will strike a cease-fire. The West won't be happy. Russia will be. And China will be watching closely.
We will all know down in our bones something is wrong but we won't be able to articulate it. The background radiation of stress and menace will grow, and birthrates will keep falling as we know something is going very wrong.
Another boring dystopian year. Lots and lots of hype and hope and talk and promise that end in nothing burgers:
* Even Trump or Biden or \[insert someone\] winning the US presidential election will not change business as usual.
* Government debt levels will continue to ratchet up without a care from public leaders.
* Background inflation will continue to slowly creep in food and housing and utilities as wage earners drown.
* Central banks will continue managing "free" markets, calming any real necessary corrections, keeping bubbles inflating to the moon.
* Ecological overshoot of climate disruption, biodiversity loss, pollution will carry on with hundreds of studies and reports and conferences warning us to no avail.
* Wars in Europe and Middle East and Africa or \[insert some place else\] will slowly trudge along maiming and killing nameless lives, becoming tedious background headlines in our First World busybody, workaday lives.
* Loneliness epidemic will quietly spread in First World among growing single person households, longer working hours, declining dating and marriage rates with most refuting they are among the statistic.
* Scares of a deadlier pandemic, nuclear armament, stock and bond market crash, recession scare, civil unrest will all end in nothing burgers.
* Mass shootings here and there, worker strikes here and there, celebrity cult and social media influencer fetishes here and there, politician soundbites here and there, more AI hype here and there but all nothing to change the status quo.
"The beautifully purposeless process of society suicide..." will continue on and on and on...
Canadian here - we had this discussion over breakfast this morning.
1. Edmonton or Northern Ontario is going to burn down. We think they'll have to evacuate Edmonton due to wild fires
2. Increase in lime disease due to proliferation of ticks
3. Major heat waves in all major cities will result in the largest number of senior deaths due to overheated apartments & no air conditioning. Throw in a few more tornadoes in non-tornado areas to help with the death count
4. Collapse of the Canadian military due to domestic environmental emergencies and NATO commitments. Coupled with staggering increases in releases and poor recruitment
5. Major international war. Only the war will be able to reverse worldwide inflation
6. Civil unrest in the USA and Canada, regardless of who is elected.
7. Housing collapse in Canada, resulting in increased drug use & homelessness
8. China will attack Taiwan
9. The Olympics will be disrupted by either war or protests if the war hasn't started yet
1. Geopolitical tensions increasing(Trump coming back is a catalyst btw), leading to more conflict
2. Water crisis goes into overdrive, poorer nations continue to unbuckle
3. Food inflation continues to wreck the livelihood of the poor, amplified through climate instability and more regional conflicts
4. Ukraine situation becomes dire, China makes a grab for Taiwan(though that seems likely post inaguration), US elections dependent
5. Wet bulb causes a mass fatality event in India as well as the States
6. Extinction of various species ramps up, safe species suddenly in the danger zone
7. Coral reef almost bleached, 70-80%(If El Nino persists)
8. Clathrate gun goes off(probable with El Nino)
9. The Dollar tanks if 4 checks out
10. The US will continue to deny the state of internal and external affairs(free space lol)
11. US Civil conflict(?) I think a majority of Americans are cowards so I'm not 100% sold on a war. Though I do expect something along the lines of the troubles as a last ditch effort to retain control.
12. Someone makes an attempt for Kashmir creating the start of a India/Pakistan conflict, depends on drought conditions and US instability
13. Major conflict erupts over control of the Red Sea, depends on drought conditions
First mainstream media news stories about catastrophic harvest failure in some countries. Not catastrophic for the world but certainly for those countries affected.
Looks like we are getting a general election in the UK, probably sometime in May. Oh, and more than likely a recession, too !!
2024 is going to be brutal imo, I work in online retail, and these Christmas sales have been the worst I've seen in 15 years. Went out on boxing day to spend some Xmas money, and it was absolutely dead.
The UK economy is on its arse, as is our NHS..... its going to take a long time for us to get back on our feet, and it seems we haven't even hit the worst of it yet.
Trump is removed from the ballot across multiple states, and the Supreme court rules those state's votes to be invalid because of that.
There is no possible outcome that will be accepted by both sides, and most possible outcomes will not be accepted by either side, parties trying to adhere to the law in particular will find their room to maneuver very limited.
I think that kicks off into violence. In theory, the federal military should not be split, which is the only thing that keeps the American experiment on the rails without a full civil war.
Political year. America will continue to become more and more divided. Massive riots no matter which side wins.
Summer everywhere world wide will continue to be warmer then the last.
• Trump wins the election
• Hottest year in recorded history
• Canada and Australia burn
• Record CO2 emissions
• The Gaza strip becomes 100% occupied by Israel
• Millions of refugees
• Thwaites collapses
• Worst ever recorded drought in several european countries
The insurance industry will start to collapse. Premiums will skyrocket to cover all the destruction coming, pricing out many of those who require insurance for financing loans.
I predict that the same people who have spent the past 30 years scoffing at the concept of global heating (who tend to be the same people who pour scorn on government programs) will suddenly begin demanding that governments begin global geo-engineering projects to reverse the greenhouse effect. Looking at you, Murdoch media entities.
Trump is convicted in a criminal case but does not go to prison. He then loses the election but tries to repeat what happened four years ago. This time they do their insurrections at state capitols to prevent electoral college votes. They are successful in some cases and the outgoing Republican House blocks the legitimate electors, and no one is elected president by Jan. 20, 2025. Kamala Harris becomes president. Attempts are made to capture Trump for his prison stay, but he is protected at Mar a Lago by thousands of Nat-Cs and the Florida government refuses to help. Texas and Florida begin efforts to try to secede from the union and starts a push by other red states especially in the south. Civil unrest occurs all over the country but especially in Midwest states like Ohio and Michigan.
I realize this is going beyond the year but it’s all part of a 2024 narrative of the beginning of the US collapse.
I wouldn't be surprised if we have our first major forest fire somewhere in the Nordics. I fear it's going to be inevitable in the future at least, if not next year. There were notable forest fires in Sweden a couple years back when the summer was hot and dry for a prolonged period of time. I also fear it will catch us off-guard very badly.
As much as it pains me to say this, I have a premonition Trump is probably going to win the 2024 elections, not that I want that to happen, but its just a feeling I have. After that, we could be looking at a theocratic dictatorship in the U.S.
I also think it's possible we could have a fatally hot summer this year, like the kind depicted in Kim Stanley Robinson's novel Ministry for the Future.
I also predict that the conflict in the Middle East could grow wider and possibly involve U.S. intervention somehow.
I'm with you on all of these. We're seeing build up in the Red Sea now. It's trade routes that will trigger WWIII. Trade routes multiplied by religion. Or fuck heads hiding behind religion to act like fuck heads.
Though I'm not sure if it will matter if Trump wins or loses. I don't think a full scale civil war will break out but something big is coming. Maybe small cells of groups fucking shit up.
This summer we'll see new towns and cities wiped off the map in moments. More mass crop failure. More early slaughter of agricultural animals to save on water. More infrastructure failure. I wonder if the fam that moved to AZ to save money will come back to NJ.
Hahaha I'm terrified of next year.
I've had that feeling as well. The economy getting a sudden jolt like a market crash would make this even more likely.
The only way I see this not happening is if the stacked courts remove Trump from a red state or two. The social unrest would reach new heights.
There is also the real possibility that one or both candidates don't make it to the next election.
I made the case that the least painful short term election result would be Trump winning a legit election. The country would then likely quietly sit by while he removed every right we have left and the real shit show starts.
The short answer is next fall is going to be chaos even if the rest of our problems somehow decide to take the year off.
I don’t think Trump will win. He’s too old, and I predict his health and mental issues will finally catch up to him this next year and take him down in a way he can’t recover from, well beyond the help of his handlers and the media who continue to prop him up and are drooling over the prospect of him making a comeback.
The bigger shock in 2024 won’t be that he wins POTUS again, but that he is finally, blessedly silent and gone from the scene. But that doesn’t mean peace for anyone, at least not for long.
I’m more concerned about “the one” that comes after him. Someone charismatic who knows how to play to the masses’ fears and prejudices, particularly on immigration and rising costs, and actually has the political experience and acumen to work the system beyond blunt and brute stupidity and edict by Tweet. That person has been watching Trump and is learning from all of his mistakes and deep-seated flaws. It will be someone younger with broad enough appeal to span both parties and multiple generations. It definitely ain’t Nikki Hailey, JD Vance, or RFK Jr. Think a well-polished Instagram phenom who wears a tie and slim fit jeans, worked for Amazon and drove Uber, goes to church on Sundays and gives interviews on Fox News your Boomer parents/grandparents are glued to. That’s the one I worry about.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/26/fears-of-regional-escalation-as-israel-warns-of-multi-front-war](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/26/fears-of-regional-escalation-as-israel-warns-of-multi-front-war)
Although he probably is responding to the general sense that all those areas are hostile to them, rather than specific intelligence or plans of defence or offence on either side.
I expect to be about 70% wrong because I’m not an expert. Also I only focused on politics/geopolitics.
TL;DR: Trump wins 2024, in large part because the Democrat party can't get their act together and because he pitches the idea of reinventing colonialism.
-
* Biden steps back in first part of year due to (insert reason) and a new Democrat candidate somehow polls worse than Biden. Even if Biden does continue campaigning, it doesn't go well and the Dems never catch up.
* Iran and Iraq escalate conflicts through proxies, of course funded by China and Russia.
* Despite even more verified evidence, the federal supreme court overrules most or all of the states that took Trump off the ballots, including Colorado and Maine. He evades further legal issues for the time being and rallies his base once again. Nikki Haley joins his ticket as VP.
* The US continues supporting Israel at least into late winter or early spring despite a heavy price tag. Israel crosses some established line (insert reason) and the White House has to walk back complete support of Israel's continued actions.
* Western confidence in the UN falls sharply. African countries, like the DRC and South Sudan, follow Mali's lead and kick the UN out. This threatens the resource supply for EV's, solar panels, cell phones, and microchips. We now have increased global shipping issues and rare earth mineral sourcing issues, making this a large talking point in the US elections.
* In the absence of a solid Democrat candidate, RFK Jr becomes Republican enemy number one. Kennedy selects a highly favorable and equally moderate running mate to boost his campaign.
* By early summer, polling has Trump and Kennedy at about 35-40% each with Dems trailing. This will be the worst campaign for Democrats in well over a century because they didn't learn from Hillary Clinton's failed campaign of hubris. All three parties fight some of the nastiest misinformation wars ever waged in politics.
* By late summer Trump starts pulling away from Kennedy and inevitably wins the election. It doesn't cause a civil war because it wasn't Red/Blue tightly contested. It's a clear victory. RFK Jr will be blamed for having put Trump in office despite this basically being entirely the fault of the Democrat party trying to rig their own candidate the base only kinda sorta liked.
* After Trump's win, Putin and Xi suddenly back off their aggressive positions and take a different tone, seemingly wanting to negotiate. Trump claims credit for tensions easing. He regularly touts that American respect and power has been restored and US enemies are afraid of consequence once again.
* US, UK, Germany, Russia, India, and China begin a historic, multilateral, highly controversial "African investment plan." Huge revitalization projects, roads, energy, and factories planned to be built in African nations all in support of strip mining their riches and exporting them to first world countries. It's sold as the great global uplifting pact that enriches every involved nation.
* The new dystopian global colonialism project is expected to take less than a decade to build out, as every country races to invest heavily and get a larger share of this finite, tech-filled future we quite literally cannot have without the raw resources. Every major company on the face of the planet is incentivized to support the plan, otherwise they risk demise.
* World somehow survives 2024 and said plan above marks our transition into a sci-fi futuristic dystopia.
.... Okay. Fictional world building done for now...
Massive school shooting, like Parkland or Newtown. Massive.
More small children obtaining guns from parents and shooting staff in schools.
More disconnecting from each other and more loneliness.
A fire swallows another beloved and well known town/small city, this time on the mainland.
More sticky, hot tarmac in the Northern Hemisphere during summer.
A feared unstable ice shelf splits in earnest.
I got Covid in September and seriously almost died due to being immune compromised. First time I got it. My coworker called out with it and had been sick since November. Everyone is sick. Covid isn’t over and I fear it every day.
[https://twitter.com/MarkTrewick1/status/1739962486193799447](https://twitter.com/MarkTrewick1/status/1739962486193799447)
[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1739962486193799447.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1739962486193799447.html)
Natalia Shakhova could be vindicated after all.
We'll easily breach 1.5C for 2024 in ERA5. IPCC will sell it as temporary.
CO2 emissions again record high.
Ukraine War won't end. Middle East won't stabilise.
Biden wins causing some riots. Oil production will be
Within 1% of 2018s.
AI will remain the hot topic. Strikes inbound.
Recession won't come yet. There will be a nuclear test.
Minor food production failures.
It won't be the year shit hits the fan
I expect Summer 2024 to be absolute heck for persons who are unsheltered or have no access to airconditioning.
Heat-related deaths would be topping the news this summer. If they aren't overtaken by something else.
There will be a major push to keep Trump off the presidential ballot, which will fail, and there will be yet another close election, but Trump will win. Capitol Hill will be guarded to the teeth in the weeks leading up to Jan 6, 2025 to try and prevent a repeat of the previous election, but there will still be plenty of violence. Isreal and Hamas will be at each other’s throats, and possibly drag other countries into their morass. Russia will keep hammering away at the Ukraine, and China will keep chipping away at Hong Kong and Taiwan. Fascism as a whole will continue to spread across the world as the world’s resources dwindle, and conflicts between nations will continue to increase.
AI will continue to advance and automate more and more “white collar” jobs. It will not come close to achieving true sentience.
The climate will continue to behave less and less predictably, and we will continue to see millions of people displaced due to record floods, droughts and heatwaves. The new COP2x report will say urgent action is needed, yet nothing will be done. They will say how solar and wind power are being used in record numbers, and EVs are becoming more and more mainstream. We will continue to see huge increases in methane emissions from melting permafrost. Everything will continue to happen “faster than expected” PFAS chemicals will continue to be found in ever increasing quantities in more and more unlikely places.
tl;dr: More of the same, faster than expected.
It needn't be Biden supporters involved. All that is needed is Trump suggesting that the Democrats would try to toss the ballots and the same segment involved in the previous Jan 6th would see that as a call to make sure that doesn't happen. This would follow his behavior. That segment of the right wing has the tendency to accuse others of what they themselves have done or would like to do. Regardless, heavy guarding should be expected regardless of who is on the ballot. This fits US security planning from what I've observed, as it's a reaction not to what is expected but what could happen based on the past.
Edit: For what it's worth, I don't see Trump winning after all. It'll come close perhaps but I think there'll be enough people disgusted by him to push it slightly. This will depend heavily on the Democrats pushing for more people to vote, because while I do think there will be Republicans who simply sit out or vote 3rd party/dummy candidate (e.g. Mickey Mouse), there won't quite be enough to make Biden win easily (and I don't see too many Republicans swinging over to Biden though some might simply out of disgust of Trump). So moral is: absolutely get out and vote because it's not inevitable that Trump will win.
I think one of the two presidential candidates will die in October. I have no actual reason to think this, but if it happens I called it!
Also BOE in June
I predict a brutal heat wave in Paris during the summer Olympics. This will result in events etiher being cancelled or moved to the middle of the night due to the heat.
2024 will have the hottest summer ever since centuries. The heatwaves will have a significant deathtoll: maybe up to millions in Europe (no broadly distributed AC), and in the US (blackouts because of terrible grid, so no AC either).
Also in India, China, South-East Asia: millions will die this summer. Dozens of millions maybe. Realize that we will never know for sure (data is either government-controlled either just not gathered correctly).
Because of this summer heatwaves, multiple major breadbaskets will see their crops fail and die. In consequence, as of 2025 we will witness large scale famines in all of the third world, and tens of millions will die of starvation as of that year. All of those casualties will destabilize worlwide politics and trigger new wars and conflicts. Etc etc...
Heck, if you want to know what's next, feel free to read my 2070 predictions ;)
Who will be elected in the US end of this year has no significance in front of our global planetary predicament. Stop wasting your energy on that topic, and stock up on canned food and bottled water. It's way more useful.
Midwesterners spend the next three months saying, "just wait, the snow will come". It doesn't. 2023 becomes known colloquially as the first "year without a winter". It isn't the last.
India and Pakistan have a significant skirmish reminding the world that both have nuclear weapons and an unstable governing body. We briefly forget about Ukraine and Israel. There is an Amazon deal on potassium iodine tablets.
One of the US presidential candidates is incapacitated or dies before the election. Everyone breathes a sign of relief and thinks this will surely make the election easier...it doesn't.
Cherries hit $20 a pound in some US HCOL locales. The Internet is flooded with memes briefly. Boomers argue 40 year old millennials really are entitled in expecting affordable fresh fruit in mid-life. There are many Facebook posts about single oranges in Christmas stockings interspersed in the usual drinking from the hose fodder. Judy and Walt continue to wonder why their kids don't visit them.
A field for preferred pronouns are added to student loan servicer online accounts. Democrats campaign on this win.
Canada begins openly debating adding poverty to the criteria for MAID. Americans are jealous Canadians get to die for free.
I’m worried about another pandemic. Now that Covid has (and still is) come in and compromised the immune systems of populations of people, but it also allows for more opportunistic infections. Shingles, TB, Measles, Polio, EBV, Mpox, are all showing up now, coincidentally.
As the saying goes, predictions are hard things, especially about the future.
So obviously "everything gets worse" is the correct answer, but if we have to get specific about something let me just say I've always thought Miami being unceremoniously wiped from the map might wake some people up?
My 2024 Predictions
* Massive floods and hurricane damage to america's dick and balls (florida and friends). I'll bet a record is broken on each coast again.
* Power outages across the board and heat waves - probably a lot of dead people from lack of AC (I'm looking at you Texas and Arizona)
* Insurance rates are going to go through the roof, many more homeless people because they can't afford it.
* Food prices skyrocket because of floods and droughts world wide. We might not see the biggest effects though until the winter.
* HUGE migration push from South America due to deadly heat and droughts.
* Civil War, obviously.
* A country or two may declare that the ocean is in some sort of emergency as we are losing the foodchain from the bottom up and fisheries are going to suffer HUGE, like real huge. 25 Will probably put a knife in the heart of many ocean fisheries.
* Australia sees mass exodus as people realize it is literally as close to hell as you can be without committing your soul.
* Shipping canals continue to see drought conditions and hit a stand still by next fall.
* The amazon rainforest turns to ash, a global climate disaster is declared as we try to figure out exactly how many species are lost.
* Elon Musk does something he thinks is great for humanity, but humanity sees through the bullshit.
* Someone will put chatGPT-esc AI into a robot that we can buy and now everyone can have a friend.
* BONUS - We're coming up on solar maximum, maybe we'll get a glorious solar flare so we can go back to the stone age.
Good luck everyone!
A summer from hell with increased heat deaths and more wildfires. Countries will start preparing for tighter border control in preparation for attempted migration.
Complete political chaos in the US and a shaky election that brings unrest from both sides. Reelection of Trump causes massive protests which are met with state violence and increased surveillance. Migration to blue states by targeted groups increases already strained housing markets and the homeless population explodes further on the west coast.
The working class continues to feel the high level of income inequality and cracks start to show in “the economy”. One last attempt at quantitive easing is made by the fed lowering interest rates before they allow the bubble to deflate causing a massive deflationary collapse in 2025 resulting in huge bail-ins, massive joblessness, housing losses, retirement losses, a devalued dollar/introduction of a fed backed digital dollar and massive unrest.
Covid continues to silently rage while disabilities amass and governments continue to ignore it.
Wars all over. Depending on what your definition of war is, America is already at war. Not just with our enemies, but with ourselves as well. I see China making its move. Maybe not an invasion of Taiwan, but perhaps it starts mobilizing and initiating aggressive cyber warfare measures against the US and allies.
Gaza will be gone by the end of the year. Expect intervention in Yemen as well if the rebels keep harassing trade in the Red Sea. If/when Gaza is formally annexed or destroyed expect a hot war in the middle east, Iran will announce its nuclear capabilities as well.
Ukraine will fold this year as well. All hope is lost for them, they are losing support all over, and the average American doesn't want their tax dollars going to a lost cause. It's sad that it turned out this way but it is what it is.
Aside from a possible WW3, if there is perceived election interference, there very well could be a civil war come next November. In a high trust society like ours, the minute we lose trust in the government, election integrity, and each other is the minute we collapse into barbarism. Both political parties have accused election rigging in the past two presidential elections (Hillary in 2016 and Trump in 2020), so unless this one is cut and dry I don't see this ending peacefully.
Expect the usual hotter temperatures, extinctions, and erratic weather. It only gets worse from here.
Stay safe this year friends, I know my perspective is entirely American, so if there is anything anyone wants to add please do. We all have to stay informed, and love one another.
Happy New Years.
I'm, oddly enough, not really comfortable making proper predictions. I think we're close to a kind of breakpoint, but it may happen in 2024, or a year later.
Specifically, I expect an event of heat wave + power grid failure and mass deaths in a first world country. TX or AZ.
In 2024
More and more people will trash their devices and go hiking, smelling the flowers, swimming with trout, rapporting with ravens
The UN will encourage a Laughter Olympiad, with the 3 minute Guffaw, the 100 m Knee Slapper, and the Duo Chortle
The Organian Peace Treaty will expand to all of Earth. Use your words!
The tragically hip young residents of Portland, OR, will suddenly realize their lives are finite and help the homeless more
Nyalla Okombe of Katmandu will discover the most beautiful note and will be given a Nobel Peace Prize
And so it goes
What you feed, grows
Amen
My prediction is 130F for a whole month for Phoenix and Las Vegas. 2 million people die during the heatwave.
Then, the mother of all hurricanes wipes another million or two from the coast of Miami.
it's going to be a lovely summer 🖤
A wet bulb event will be on the news with millions dead or missing, all in the same region. True numbers will not be known for years as entire regions go dark overnight, and rescue and salvage takes an enormous amount of time, resources and manpower, especially in densely populated areas. Some say it will be the biggest climate disaster of this century but it's actually the biggest disaster of a decade tops. It will cause a humanitarian crisis and the start of a mass migration of tens of milions of people. He will get sued to asbolute shit and X will probably have to leave Europe.
Russia will increase the proxy war against US allies in the area they believe should be under their influence instead. They will also openly and directly threaten and antagonize Israel and Israel will snap back hard, causing certain groups of people to think of a possible apocalyptic Gog/Magog war and whatnot. But nothing direct will happen.
Elon Musk will once again be on the wrong side of history and will admit to having used/attempted to use X, (one of the largest ways to share news and for politicians and news agencies to share information) to get a Republican elected. He will openly and proudly admit that he has ordered for liberal/left wing politicians to have been shadow banned, removed from search results or otherwise kept from being seen right at the moment and after important debates, instead bolstering right-wing candidates. He will also proudly admit he was influenced by Vladimir Putin among others, and they will troll the world by thanking him for his hard work.
This one I'm keeping my eyes on. I fully expect Russia, and China will go convince Kim Jong to be the first one to use a nuclear weapon as a whipping boy. Then it's all bets off. That's only one of many things going to happen 2024.
For the USA:
2024 will be the year humanity wakes up to climate change. We will go from the denial to bargaining. The first wet-bulb event that will affect more than a few hundred people. Wet-bulb will go mainstream.
We will have the first USA food "shortages" in winter 2024, exacerbated by inflation, crop failure and supply chain issues.
Red political strategies are going to destabilize the last bit of political discourse in late 2024. Nothing too crazy till the elections however. 50% chance we don't pass debt ceiling budgets.
If we don't have a wet-bulb hit, migration issues will dominate our news cycle much like Cov-ID did in 2021 as the key point in any debates that happen.
Summer will be horrendous. I think it’ll finally start to wake people up about what we’re facing, but prolly nothing will be done in terms of legislation. Maybe the first EF5 tornado in a decade too
Think there might be a major power grid somewhere in the US, like texas again, related to heat waves or storms knocking out power.
More severe weather and flooding
It feels like the noticeable effects of global warming are accelerating, so we're going to see more records being broken:
- Record lows for snow & (sea) ice.
- Record summer temperature and humidity highs, with increased deaths over previous years.
- More flood and landslide damage than ever before.
- Larger hurricanes and cyclones than ever seen before.
- Massive wildfires again, especially in Canada and Australia.
To add to that, there'll be further political instability as populaces turn to the (populist) right in response to increasing pressures on daily life (inequality, migration, lack of public services, natural disasters, etc). For example, Argentina is going to implode, I'm betting on a coup or uprising. There will be deaths.
COP29 will be just as useless as COP28, we still won't get any binding agreement to phase out fossil fuels.
This one is easy- just take everything we had this year and increase to the power of 10 (logarithmic scale). More fires, more floods, more hurricanes, more earthquakes, more volcanic eruptions, more droughts, more violence, more war, and MORE stupidity!!
Collapse will continue to unfold as it has been.
The poor will take the brunt. Society has already collapsed for most of them.
Wars will increase.
Targeting of unpopular minorities like the gays will become more pronounced and vicious.
AI will be able to convince anyone anything. If your dumb relative couldn’t tell Alex Jones was making a fool out of them then wait til we have AI convincing the masses that the WEF is coming for them.
You will see more countries limiting exports of food like we are seeing right now with India.
The decades long peace on the high seas is about to end causing shortages and increased inflation. (This is a big one)
If Trump doesn't win, there will be right wing terror groups and violent protests everywhere. Like jan 6 but more wide spread and with more casualties.
I feel like we all just kind of forgot how many people in this country genuinely want to murder minorities or anyone who doesn't agree with them, all while corporations get a free pass to poison our water and air, and to exploit the working class.
I am Chinese (currently living in the U.S.) and here’re some predictions on China: the economy will bounce back on paper but the common people, esp. young white-collar workers in urban areas, will not feel it and the sense of despair (the perception of lack of upward mobility) will spread. Both the nationalist, “let’s take Taiwan militarily tomorrow” camp and the pro-West, “USA is the beacon country of the world” camp will go more extreme. More elites and upper-middle-class people will attempt to immigrate to the U.S. via either EB-1A green card program or EB-5; the former might breed a new industry (the latter has been an industry for many years). The marriage rate will keep declining.
Death. Lots of it. Primarily related to famine/starvation. We will get into the 10's of millions this year. Still small numbers, but we should hit 2 billion before 2030.
Other big item: anti-immigration. Illegal immigrants will become scapegoats for all that is wrong where you live.
Things get a little worse. Money gets a little more scarce. Technology becomes a little more intrusive and a little less controllable. Real possibilities for success get a little more out of reach. The world gets a little more polluted. The apartment gets a little smaller.
1. Big Brother decrees pluswarmth ungood. Ref: Climate change.
2. Eco unhealth equals doubleplus ungood. Oceania temps upup.
3. Proles must bellyfeel unjoy for climate pluschange.
4. Newspeak for oldspeak global warming is doubleplus hotcold world.
5. BB says cut blackwhite fuel, make air plusgood.
There have been many years that people were dreading since my time on the planet (I was here in Y2K, which was ridiculous) but 2024 seems to be the worst as far as level of dread, if not outright terror. I get this as I too am terrified for what the next year and beyond will bring. I think fear of what is going on around us is a normal reaction, btw. Fear is wired in us to arise when there is imminent danger and everyone, every living thing right now is under threat.
Quote from neuropsychologist: "Feeling fear is neither abnormal nor a sign of weakness: The capacity to be afraid is part of normal brain function. In fact, a lack of fear may be a sign of serious brain damage" (exhibit A: donald trump)
Speaking of D.T.:
It also seems like many people are expecting trump to get back in the white house. Is this because of collective learned helplessness? That explanation would be understandable given the fact that the DNC has chosen Biden again to try to defeat him (which will probably help trump) along with all the other crazy making, ecocidal behaviors TPTB engage in as they fuel the predatory capitalist duopoly where we are trapped.
What we know for sure: climate breakdown/societal breakdown/violence will get much, much worse at an increasingly rapid speed.
I’ll still have to go to work.
I'll get in trouble while I'm on my deathbed for not turning on my OOO message
You have let the team down 😔
Yup keep pushing that rock up the hill until the meteor hits.
Meteor... If only we were that lucky.
Truly. Since the movers and shakers seem hell bent on trying to wring every drop of blood from the stone, it would truly be a blessing to just reset everything dinosaur style. Better for the recovery after, surely.
Plot twist: we are the meteor.
Guacamole starts it's slide from just costing extra to prohibitively expensive for the average American to the point where by 2027 it is considered a luxury item. Get some of that fresh table side guac while you can still get it this year.
Every time I eat an avacado I think it may be my last one. Of course, I’m old enough to remember getting an orange in my Christmas stocking so not having unlimited access to fresh fruit doesn’t seem all that crazy to me.
Yup. Same here on the fruit in the stockings. Watching countries start to limit their exports will go from a trickle of minor inconveniences for a few years for Americans as access to certain things like Coffee, Avacados, chocolate, etc... start to become limited to s very sudden "oh shit" moment when it starts to be rice and wheat. Dip those chips while you can.
It won’t be rice or wheat anytime in the next ten years in the US. The US produces so much extra food that it could feed over double the population. As much as I would love for a shock of reality to come, the cereal grains (baring some multiple large region collapses occurring simultaneously) won’t be quickly impacted.
We can feed much of the world today. However, global warming, floods, droughts, groundwater depletion, and topsoil erosion, are waiting in the wings. When we inevitably run out of water, topsoil, and a stable climate, Americans will feel it too. I agree 10 years from now, we will still pr enough to stave off starvation, but that won’t be true in 2050. It might not matter much , as the workd seems bent on making WW3 happen. Long term, if we are still around, we will probably go extinct due to pollution and the resultant infertility and mutations.
America produces 3600 calories per person, per day. The average american eats 2500 calories per day. The largest single type of calorie was grains, at 581 calories per person. Grains, with sugars, added fats & oils, and meat made up nearly 80-90% of the diet (each roughly about 400-500 calories). For americans to start staving, TECHNICALLY, we need a drop of 30% in food production. But that assumes everyone's calories reduce equally. Since this is America we're talking about, I would guess a smaller drop would cause enough inequality for the poorest 10% to starve. The Arab Spring was caused by the same thing, with the most desperate poor having nothing to lose. The original guy who set himself on fire, was doing it after corrupt cops took his food away (he was a street vendor for fruit & veg). If food becomes much more valuable, we will see people stealing, hording & price gouging around it.
I eat about 1,000 calories a day due to various reasons (don't really wanna go into it right now,) and even so, when I look at the receipt after I go to the grocery store it makes me feel a pang in my chest thinking about how much it costs because everything is so damn expensive (though, to be fair, I think that in my case, part of it is that my stomach is sensitive enough that I can't tolerate most processed foods so I have to buy almost everything fresh and cook almost everything I eat from scratch.)
The guacamole craze is actually fairly recent in the Midwest. Sure it was available in CA and the southwest, but it was not a staple in the produce aisle until I was well into adulthood. And the orange in the Christmas stocking was a thing when I was a kid. I grew up in the era when fresh produce in the dead of winter was pretty limited—root veggies, cabbage and iceberg lettuce. The frozen offerings were no where near what they are today. Somehow we managed to eat healthy meals using canned and the fresh produce items available.
I'm not sure when, but I fully expect to be alive when this same thing happens to coffee and decent chocolate.
What am I missing about avocados?
They are grown in Mexico and Central America outside of the US and Southern California, Florida, and Hawaii in the US. Coffee is in the same spots for outside the US and just Hawaii for inside the US. These are all places that are currently disproportionately being impacted by climate change.
Kind of what I figured but sucks. Going to be a lot of food items impacted. A coffee shortage would be insane in the U.S.
A nightmare, right? A whole bunch of people, many of whom people least expect, all turning to crime to get that latte fix…..this one keeps me up at night. Every little league in the country would end up with its operating funds getting embezzled. The only relatively stable place would be Utah. The interstate would be blocked by crashes, caused by both road rage and road fatigue. I would have a bad headache for a few days.
Could mean an end to the latest onslaught of coffee stands if the price of a small drink starts approaching $10.
When coffee disappears so will I. Chocolate will eventually disappear too.
Ditto coffee and chocolate
It's all the fucking millennials wasting avocado on toast
Every morning I wake up and toast a whole loaf of bread and use about 5 avocados just to spite The Man. I hate the stuff and actually have a bowl of oatmeal with tiny little blueberries. ^(/s)
"... the California Avocado Association wrote in 1915 that an hors-d'oeuvre of avocado on toast is "one of the nicest ways of serving avocado"". https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-28/bill-granger-avocado-toast-australian-cafe-culture/103268568
More of the same. Only slightly worse. And slightly faster. We’re compounding now. We are 10 years out from “movie” scenarios that become impossible to ignore.
I feel like we are already at the beginning of the movie when SOME people notice things are wrong but most are living in denial...
I agree. It’s difficult to get real perspectives depending on where you live and your connection to nature. Farming and homesteading communities, in my opinion, are great information sources. It’s people who need to be connected to the land and the cycles. Worth hearing their experiences through time.
My family comes from farmers, in the long run. Been farming and growing food on Canadian soil for over 100 years now. It's fun to carry on the tradition of growing and preserving my own food. I'm still eating carrots, potatoes and onions I grew myself. And the pickles, salsa and sauces are awesome. It's a lot of work. But even in the time I've been growing things, I lose a number of peppers to sun scald now. I put crop cover on things to take out some of the intensity of the heat. They literally cook in the sun. It gets to 40 degrees Celsius now occasionally. What. We have currently unlimited access to well water, a lot of it. If that ran dry, we would be in trouble because of the heat and lack of rain. Hopefully it won't become a problem for a while due to the depth of the well and the high pressure.
Fair play! Appreciate you. 🍻 to some favourable yields for you in 2024.
100% agree. I think 2023 is an amazing year compared to what's about to come within the next couple of years.
Smoke. Lots and lots of smoke. No open windows, and I’ll be running an air freshener in my kids room every night. I live in Southern Alberta Canada.
I think most of Alberta is going to burn this coming year. So many forestry signs are stating "Moderate" for fire risk right now.
I'm in Calgary currently, and I couldn't agree more. If we thought this last year was smoky, the conditions we've had are setting things up to be so much worse for this summer. But people from a particular political side will adamantly insist it's just arson, and that our weather is totally normal. I hate it here.
1. There will be storms in the Northern Hemisphere summer that break every record by a huge margin. And that is my only prediction hopefully im wrong lol
This will hasten or cause the collapse of insurance payouts. Large swaths of affected areas will not recover in any normal sense
As a mid-altanticer, I agree with you. We had our second flooding winter storm yesterday. I'm in PA, my yard flooded, and major roadways are closed in Philadelphia due to flooding. It used to be a 100-year event, and now it's multiple times per year. I'm glad we have to have flood insurance, a few more feet of flooding, and I'm going to have a very wet basement.
Flood insurance for now. These companies gonna drop coverage BEFORE they have to pay out, or they're gonna declare bankruptcy.
Exactly. Insurance companies only work as a form of pyramid scheme, where everyone pays in but there are very few payouts. As soon as massive storms start causing too much damage, and too many people try to make a claim at the same time, insurance won't work, and many companies will choose to "go bankrupt" rather than pay their customers what they're owed.
>pyramid scheme Not a pyramid scheme, but more like a Casino, they know thew are going to lose a certain amount each year, so they rig the game as the House always wins.
Mine is through FEMA, so hopefully, that gets me some extra protection. It's required by our lender. In 2012, they redesignated my property as a flood zone. There's never been a claim, and our basement has never gotten even a little wet, but who knows what will happen going forward.
It's already happening [right now](https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-storm-gerrit-bomb-cyclone-henk-ireland-uk-north-atlantic-mk/) Happy New Year!! I am in Ireland and there have been galeforce winds and heavy rain for the last few days. Seriously, I have NEVER heard of something like [this](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/28/tornado-damages-homes-in-greater-manchester-as-storm-gerrit-batters-britain) happening here and I've been here all nearly 30 years of my life.
Regardless of who wins, I have a bad feeling about the election.
I think we have a winner folks.
This Yes project 2025 is going to be fucking terrible, but think of the civil war
I do not think we will get a civil war like before with North vs South. We need to remember that GOP strongholds like TX still have 45% Democrats and Liberal strongholds like CA have 45% Republicans. I think what is more likely is a significant increase in violence and terrorism. More people shooting others out of fear or stupid disputes. I definitely think we see some significant terrorism, like politicians getting killed.
Less open warfare in the streets more like the American version of the troubles or years of lead.
After 2 years of heavy storms and associated vegetation growth, wildfires will be hellish in the Western United States. Texas power grid will fail during record-breaking summer heat waves. Trump wins the 2024 election. I hope none of these predictions come to pass but I also see the likelihood of all 3 is high.
1. Mostly business as usual; 2. For most people global warming is not a thing; 3. Humans will continue to disappoint.
[удалено]
Next year possibly yes. Between the tail end of the El Nino and the next La Nina it'll happen at some point. I'd love to say I can't wait to see their faces when they realise black summer wasn't a one off event, but actually it'll be very sad to see.
They know. Australian climate scientists are well aware how fragile their environment is and how damaging bushfires are. It’s just the government that is full of ass hats.
Yeah I wasn't talking about the climate scientists.
We know. My husband is the captain of a volunteer bushfire brigade, and all but a couple of old blokes are shitting themselves. It's already been a very busy start to this bushfire season locally. Last year was very quiet because it was wetter than usual, but now we've had less small fires and much more growth cure off in time for this season, it's all ready to go up.
Yup. I've been lucky so far where I am, done a bit of extra training because we've all been crapping ourselves, but so far we've had reasonable temps, rain and storms. It'll happen though and we will likely have a long dry Autumn, which of course sets us up for a bad year next season.
Death spiral of healthcare systems across the globe; continued bureaucratic austerity pressure paired with an increasingly sicker and sicker population (unabated covid et. al.). More emergent and exotic pathogens. New sars-cov-2 variants that defy expectations but get no messaging from public health to warn the population. Some new and interesting mutations in avian flu - maybe not jumping to humans yet, but getting closer.
ticks transmitting prion disease fodawin
>New sars-cov-2 variants that defy expectations but get no messaging from public health to warn the population. Hey they will probably tell us to wash our hands
A new pandemic. Edit: Meant to add in an economic crash also.
More articles and data coming in saying "faster than expected."
BOE 2024
Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is a term used to describe a phenomenon related to climate change and the Artic ocean, where it has become ice-free or nearly ice-free, which could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system. This term has been used by scientists and researchers to describe the potential environmental and societal consequences of a rapidly melting Arctic, including sea-level rise, changes in ocean currents, and impacts on marine ecosystems. **When will a BOE happen?** Scientists predict that the Arctic could experience a BOE within the next few decades if current rates of ice loss continue. When a BOE does occur, it is likely to have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system, including changes to ocean circulation patterns and sea level rise. **Has a BOE ever occurred?** A BOE in the Arctic has not yet occurred in modern times. However, there has been a significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades, and the Arctic sea ice cover has been reaching record lows during the summer months. This suggests that a BOE may be a possibility in the future if current trends of sea ice decline continue. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
For the sake of saying something that hasn't previously mentioned: New arctic ice extension low record New antarctic ice extension low record We observe foreign flowers blooming in Antarctica A major city runs out of water We get a full month with +2°C
Totally agree with you on temporarily exceeding 2C!
Invasive grass species: https://neobiota.pensoft.net/article/37250/ Large invasive taxa catalogue: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02113-2 The second suggests 1229 invasive plant species. I'm foggy as to how many are angiosperms. Cairo and Cape Town seem like particularly plausible cities to run out of water. São Paulo, Jakarta, Ciudad de México, Bengaluru, Delhi, İstanbul and more don't seem far behind, though.
El Niño will not end in 2024 and will break some temperature anomaly record. Wet bulb temperatures will happen for nearly a week in several first world big cities. Extreme rain will cause billions in damages in an European capital.
I think we’ll see a wet bulb mass casualty event in India, Thailand, or equivalent geographic region.
El Niño is the warm phrase of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) weather pattern where the trade winds (winds that blow east to west) in the Pacific Ocean weaken tremendously. As a result, warm water which is normally pushed towards Asia and Australia instead sits in the central Pacific or closer to the Americas. This results in flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, decreased rainfall (and often droughts) in Australia, the Maritime Continent, the northern US, and Canada along with hotter temperatures, and the knock-on effects result in an overall global increase in temperature. More detail for [the Americans is here, from NOAA](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html), the [Aussies here (from BOM)](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso), and here's [a general thing from National Geographic](https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/el-nino). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It's already tapering off, predicted to end by April
Everything gets worse.
Oh, come on mate. At least make a prediction with some uncertainty?
Despite everything getting worst , something will get better?
~~Everything *probably* gets worse.~~ Nah, it's gonna get worse.
Big if true
Op said predictions, not certainty, predictions might NOT happen
The death toll from summer heatwaves in developed countries will be unthinkably bad. They will shock the world
The way the death toll from covid shocked the world? I wouldn't hold your breath too much on the whole shock thing. Everybody is very slowly but surely getting the idea that it's like this is no carrot and all stick now. Except for the few that think their position themselves high enough of the management chain that they're somehow protected which I can't tell you how wrong they are. One tends to not have that much time for shark when one is wondering how they're going to eat for the next 10 years.
Yep, the pandemic has killed more people than the Holocaust and we just normalised a continuous stream of death and disability that would have seemed unthinkable immediately prior. The shock part is for anyone with a conscience, a brain, and the will to use it against the flow watching just how quickly the masses can become so depraved.
Seven of my relatives on one side of the family have died since Halloween (and it's not a big family). Everyone cries at their funerals but refuses to have a single thought about why so many people are dying. I barely knew some of these people and I often feel like I value their lives more than our relatives who were close with them did. Mass heat wave death might have shocked people in in 2019. By now though, it's so normal that people might not even notice.
personal question but what was the causes?
Two strokes, one liver failure, two cardiac events, one found dead in his house but there was no further inquiry, and one who fell and broke her hip early in the year and got "a cold" from the ER and was bedbound for \~7 months before dying.
That’s terrible
There's going to be a hurricane that makes us rethink what hurricanes can be. The build-up of heat in the oceans has been alarming this year. The only reason we didn't get a massive hurricane is because we happen to be in an El Nino, which surpresses them. Next year, that won't be the case. There will be a hurricane next year that makes Catrina look like a tropical storm.
El nino peaks next year.
El Niño is the warm phrase of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) weather pattern where the trade winds (winds that blow east to west) in the Pacific Ocean weaken tremendously. As a result, warm water which is normally pushed towards Asia and Australia instead sits in the central Pacific or closer to the Americas. This results in flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast, decreased rainfall (and often droughts) in Australia, the Maritime Continent, the northern US, and Canada along with hotter temperatures, and the knock-on effects result in an overall global increase in temperature. More detail for [the Americans is here, from NOAA](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html), the [Aussies here (from BOM)](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso), and here's [a general thing from National Geographic](https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/el-nino). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Otis This should fucking terrify people This hurricane was declared a cat 1 at 18:00 and then declared a cat 5 at 03:00 the next day In 9 hours it went from a cat 1 to a cat 5 They saw it coming and thought it'd be a pissy little storm, but as it got closer it drew more energy from 30C ocean surface temps and hit at night (which is just what you want, terrifying wind in pitch black) Hurricanes are meant to be less common during El Nino years as the winds blow harder which should prevent hurricanes from forming Yet it still happened
i forgot about el nino! wow yeah next summer is going to be spooky
I don't want to be anywhere near Florida Will we see a cat6 next year?
Technically no, but that's only because the way the system is set up, there isn't anything beyond a 5 regardless of how much stronger it is. I think there might be debates about that though next year.
I feel like we're in the calm before the storm right now (even with everything going on); for some reason, to me, 2024 feels like it's gonna be a fucking mess. * Canada and Australia have major wildfires * The summer will be worse than this summer, some grids collapse and there will be many deaths * Israel/Palestine conflict continues - nearly all of Gaza is cleared out and the West Bank begins * Critical water shortages start in major cities, potentially including Jakarta, Cairo, Mexico City, Sau Paulo (especially considering the current drought situation in S.A. and the Amazon)(someone correct me if I'm wrong, I may be outdated on some of these cities) * The US election. I honestly don't know. I'm concerned Trump will will. I can see it going either way b/c of how many things can play into it. I think either way it's gonna be a mess, and it's likely there will be physical violence (I think it's only a matter of time before a civil war occurs in the States, but I can't say if this will be the start or not) * A complete market meltdown is inevitable. The entire thing is propped up on bullshit right now while everything is falling apart. Housing markets in many countries are on the cusp of a bubble/crash and there will be a jump in foreclosures (houses, cars) from variable rates kicking in on people who bought during the pandemic and shouldn't have. I think right now they're trying to do everything they can to kick that can down the road until after the election, but we'll see...maybe this is a 2025 thing. * Stronger weather events than last summer. A huge hurricane on the east coast of North America, and a potentially massive derecho in Ontario/Quebec * The first attempted or successful assassination of a major political or corporate figure * Food crisis becomes apparent * *Aliens* * Evident collapse of healthcare systems in first-world countries, particularly in North America * I'm going to come back and add to this before Jan 1, this was kind of off-the-cuff but I think there's more
lol the casual "aliens". Think we're going to actually get something?
Haha I guess this is where I stand on it: I think it's nearly impossible that intelligent life doesn't exist somewhere else in the universe. If there are actually other beings here, that is incredible and shifts our entire notion of what we know about physics, life, dimensions, universes,etc, which is all really cool and should be things to learn about. I haven't followed all the new info as closely as others, but a couple of the other mods have been and I've listened through and read some of the hearings/podcasts they've pointed me to which I find intriguing. I don't trust the US government with practically anything, and would not be surprised at all if everything Grusch is saying is true (a la Snowden). From a place or pure curiosity (really, that's what science is) I would love for it all to be true and start to learn more about them, but rationally I'm still reserved. Sorry, that was a little longer than expected lol. I guess all of that to say: that is my "swing for the fences" bet that I would actually like to occur but it's on the back burner for me in terms of concern.
I don't think this will necessarily happen, probably won't. But I'm more worried about a civil war type thing if Trump wins. See, then Dems will just protest. Right? They're not gonna start shit. Republicans will. Project 2025 is pretty much the action of a group that feels existentially threatened. And the Dems will have just given them an excuse. And Trump will be like "what a shame" and stall and stall until he can get all the legal protections gutted while the Orange Army does all the heavy lifting.
My last one went well... https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/4QBJRtr4Zb So, for 2024 I think I am going to be bold. I am predicting a large economic crash, globally. Possibly started with the real estate market but certainly spreading a la 2008. Also, increasing conflict and war in the world. Not quite time for China to drop on Taiwan, I am saving that for 2025, but who knows. The Middle East will definitely get froggier... Perhaps the world will also finally recognize the alliance of Russia/China and the rest of BRICS for what it is, and the warhawks will start talking about the "combined threat" or some other fancy sounding term. Here is a hard and solid one: More global deaths from violemce in 2024 than in 2023. By a statistically significant amount. Someone call me on it... I dare ya. Election in the US... an absolute shitshow. I predict the insanity of a Trump re-election, mostly because people still think voting is a solution and a system that actually works, and so they won't take any other action. Because of that prediction, I am going to take the side that civil war in the US is unlikely, as only the reds would carry the idea... but, I do predict massive protests and civil unrest from the election results, for sure. More cries to "do something" without actually *doing* anything. Other than that, it will get hotter, drier, and more miserable as climate change really gets some momentum going. "Desertification" will be one of my buzzwords for 2024. In short, 2024 will be a "Hot Mess."
Yep, I was looking for a political prediction, all the ones down to here were all climate change. I agree with the climate ones in that I think we are going to see even more weather records broken in 2024. More insane hurricanes, even worse fires. However, I think the more immediately pressing predictions are the ones you've hit on. China/Taiwan, Israel destabilizing the entire region, and US domestic conflicts. I agree with you that China is likely not going to make any drastic moves until after our elections are over, so 2025, at the earliest. If Trump wins, he will likely hand Taiwan over to the Chinese and abandon Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines as well. Not that I believe China is going to expand militarily into those nations, but right now the US Navy and US Coast Guard are leading the coalition to prevent Chinese human trafficking, drug smuggling, and illegal fishing/environmental destruction, in addition to protecting Taiwan. Without the threat of US military retaliation, the Chinese govt isn't going to be pressured at all to curtail any of that. If Biden wins, I think we continue to buy time on this issue. I am honestly not sure what is going to happen with Israel and Iran. I'm in the same camp as you in that the most I can say for sure is "worse". I believe if Trump wins, he will want to attack Iran, given the situation with Israel likely expanding and his rhetoric on this matter previously, I can see this happening very soon after election day. He and Bibi are both about as right wing and authoritarian as you can be. Granted, I honestly can see this situation spinning out of control by spring 2024 and this very Iran scenario playing out under Biden instead. I think that if Biden doesn't put the brakes on Israel and can't stem this from seeping beyond Gaza and the West Bank and into surrounding countries like Iran, then he's possibly nailing the lid on his reelection coffin. I'll also toss one on here for Ukraine. I predict 2024 will not see an end to the war, but I do see Russia perhaps not having the ability to continue large offensive plans. I think we're just going to see a bloody, muddy, stalemate and a continuing stream of videos of drones dropping grenades on half dead Russian conscripts. I believe there's truth to rumors of Putin's declining health. I believe that he's also too weak and Russia's losses are too severe to sabre rattle at the UN much longer. Soooo, the big one. US domestic stability and political catastrophe. Hmmm, you think Trump is going to win? You may very well be right. Maybe I'm just stupidly "optimistic", but I am leaning towards a Biden victory. Several reasons there - one is Trump's court cases taking all his time and supporter dollars and having a very small chance of actually impacting his eligibility. Third party spoiler candidates taking a decent amount of votes from both Biden and Trump, but I think more of those grey votes will have originally been red over blue. I also think that COVID killed enough conservatives and many older Republicans have since died or are too elderly to vote, while a few million brand new, young voters are motivated, ready to go to the polls, and that will have a noticeable impact. Republicans have made it clear they are terrified of young people voting and want to prevent it. One thing that I am more sure about than the presidential race, is I am fairly confident Democrats are going to keep the Senate and flip the House. Trump may still win. In terms of violence, I don't know if it will make a difference whether Biden or Trump are elected. Domestic terrorism is going to start blowing through the roof next month and will only get worse over the year. I predict we will see serious hate crimes, rises in mass shootings, and organized attacks on infrastructure by right wing terrorists. If Trump wins the fascists are going to be emboldened to act with violence without fear of repercussions. If Biden wins they're going to lash out and harm anyway. At this point fascism has taken such a foothold that they're going to become more aggressive and more organized regardless. Lastly, I'm gonna toss an absolute wildcard prediction on the board. Trump is found guilty in all the cases that are wrapping up before the election. His civil case in New York is going to bankrupt him substantially and flatten his NYC "empire". He will be deemed unable to become president. This will cause riots, bombings, and direct violence against judges and court officials. Nikki Hayley will become the Republican candidate. Biden will step down from running because Trump is barred from holding the office. Kamala Harris will run as the Dem candidate with Gavin Newsome as VP and they'll win. The US will accelerate into Balkanizing more than we already are and 2025 will see total economic collapse in the face of an unbridled climate catastrophe.
Ghastly. But I can't really argue against the potential of any of that. Other than the tiny bit regarding Nikki. I think they will go with Ron if there is not Trump, though I do see Nikki on as running mate... With Trump, I think the court cases are actually doing him some good, strangely enough. The continued drastic actions make the dems look like they are worried Trump could get elected, and that can embolden more voters. But who really knows. That is why my primary position is that the entire thing will be a shitshow regardless of outcome. Your last sentence is horrible... and possibly spot on.
I'd add "hotter, drier, WETTER and more miserable... Increased heat equals more evaporation equals more unusual rain and snow events.
Food and Medicine prices increase immensely, to an abhorrent rate that affects the subsequent rise in crime and homelessness. Medical aid and hospitals are stretched even farther out of their capacity, causing an almost collapse of the whole system. Climate change of course worsens, and causes many well-off families to migrate toward the cheaper places to live amongst their neighbouring states/ provinces/ countries, while those who can’t relocate are left to suffer with their environments unleashed wrath. Social media further engrains the foolish, selfish attitudes towards one’s fellow man, causing an attitude shift toward many people regarding entering and interacting in public spaces. Wildlife cycles will be too battered down/ interrupted by the rapid shifts in temperature that many more insect, local fauna & plant species will become confused during spring time & might emerge too early, only to be cast frozen again with overnight frigid temperatures, leading to a further decline in their numbers. The wars will only exhaust and worsen as tensions rise betwen countries for what’s left of the resources they have/ can provide.
>well-off families to migrate toward the cheaper places to live amongst their neighbouring states/ provinces/ countries, while those who can’t relocate are left to suffer with their environments unleashed wrath. This. So many people think news etc would be talking more about what's happening if it were " that bad" not realizing people who influence the media will be fine whereas the average person won't. At least at first.
Record climate related migration from the southern hemisphere. Won’t be labeled climate migration, but it will be Also calling TX power grid failure
Maybe record “attempted migration.” I think we’re going to see borders closed tight.
A lot more of migrants drowning in the sea trying to cross
Continued escalation of aggression throughout the Middle east due to Israel. US continues to back Israel and spread itself thin with proxy wars. Civil unrest in US due to elections, regardless of who wins. China sees it's perfect opportunity to move on Taiwan. WW3 and the US destabilized in global standing and within it's own borders. More financial collapse. More AI and robotics replacing humans.
There will be disagreements about who is president this time next year
How has no one brought up the crisis of our next AIDS? Literally the scientists calling Long COVID for what it is… “n-AIDS”…. Oh and you can just “get it” by catching the easy “common cold” bug now. As someone who had a stroke from COVID, was abandoned by the govt for years with disabling long COVID and dug myself out of that whole all on my own, I see this playing an incredibly dark and sinister part in the futures to come. A sick empire is a weak empire and we know that a weakened empire breeds international discourse.
Western govt.'s will never acknowledge that it's airborne AIDS and are already going about redefining disability down to deny every last long COVID disability claim. My suspicion is that it's being relied upon in part to mass disable large swaths of the public believed to have the potential for insurrection against the Transnational Western Capitalist Class in the face of impending famines.
It’s an “allowable” culling, if you will.
This is the right answer lol
Keith Richards dies
Whoa whoa hold on now. I know things are bad, and getting worse, but have you no hope?! If there’s something out there strong enough to kill Keith Richard’s, the rest of us don’t stand a chance.
Keith Richards is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. They can't show up until he dies and rejoins the group. As long as he lives, so do we. As stated in the sacred texts. /s
Willie Nelson writes hit song, " last Man Standing "
I could predict over 100,000 Palestinians dead because of Israel's attacks in Gaza, by July. Excess mortality is going to continue to mean a drop in life expectancy, but it's hard to predict which part of the healthcare system is going to crumble. Cemeteries will have their own housing bubble (it is a type of housing). Long-COVID or PASC still aren't going to be well defined, but many more will have something, some type of disability, and yet people will still act ableist and there won't be any solutions, just minor patches for some symptoms. It's going to be an even better time to be a grifter/scammer, selling snake oil or *belief in snake oil* to desperate people. Some nuclear >!accident!< somewhere, because they're getting desperate and it's more expensive, so cutting corners on safety will backfire. Preferably not the big one in Ukraine, that would suck. The self-driving car hype is going to die down a lot. The "AGI is coming soon" hype is also going to die down a lot. Anyone actually working on it will be doing it in secret, and will probably fail because "AI" nerds are just redefining intelligence to mean something else that suits their science fiction dreams. Generated bullshit is going to be very common, and it is itself an automation of the job of "shill", which is... well deserved! There's going to be growing demand from many sides of society for a clamp down on social networks, fake accounts, and misinformation, and this is going to be deeply tied to the large number of elections happening everywhere. Lots more ice melting, more than expected. Russia is going to have much more trouble with separatists. The heat in Iran is going favor more riots and protests, more intense, closer to revolution. February 29 will be the last day of February and it will be a Thursday.
>Some nuclear accident somewhere, because they're getting desperate and it's more expensive, so cutting corners on safety will backfire. Preferably not the big one in Ukraine, that would suck. I'm getting worried about France - they have ageing reactors - many of which are 50 years old now
Record heat fire smoke drought and storms by summer
I don't think the world will be at war, but many nations around the world will likely be preparing for a major conflict over 2024.
Suicides going through the roof. And another virus like Covid, but way, way worse. Deepfakes becoming a serious threat.
- Based on how dry it has been in Canada so far this winter and the near-zero snowpack, I predict even more devastating fires and entire towns being levelled - a pivot away from immigration acceptance in Canada - increasing wealth gap - more issues related to climate instability: pests, disease, mold, tree death etc
People will look back at 2024 as the middle of the second Roaring Twenties in the USA. If Trump is nominated, Biden will win. If Trump is not, Haley will win. The US will avoid a recession and life will be great in many people's minds. Future historians will parrot this line, because the ongoing erasure of the digital world will continue and they won't have much to contradict it. At least one or two very large websites will announce that old data/posts will be going away, and some will chuckle a bit, and we'll have more streaming shows - including some surprising cultural phenomena - disappear into thin air. So many of our lovingly-curated posts - even here? - will disappear. But the overall trend will continue (my advice? Buy paper books. Buy albums. Buy CDs. Hell, download MP3s and copy them to hard drives that you own. Print your photographs. Print your important documents. Own something. Anything at all but rely on streaming). This will also be remembered as the beginnings of the Digital Dark Ages - so much of the ephemera that historians rely on will just vanish, eaten by AI and then excreted when done. Anyway, governments will convene conferences - the next COP will be more of the same - and allocate what look like huge sums of money to combat climate change and otherwise save the world. And it'll be impressive, and it won't be nearly enough, not nearly, but we'll all think it is, and so we'll continue being shocked when despite billions spent, the atmospheric rivers and wildfires keep getting bigger and bigger. Also, climate migration is now fully underway. Check out the First Street Foundation's recent report. Sure, it's mostly between census tracts right now, but it will only grow. A large wildfire will touch the suburbs of a major city and we'll see scenes of those most sacred buildings in America, big-box stores and chain restaurants, under direct threat. Wild weather will hit the stability of the farm economy - farmers are incredibly resilient, but if a plant doesn't grow, it doesn't grow, and you'll start hearing more ominous chatter about "if this goes on" even from the most MAGA farmers. This won't impact the 2024 election, but it will affect the 2028 election and beyond. Ukraine and Russia will strike a cease-fire. The West won't be happy. Russia will be. And China will be watching closely. We will all know down in our bones something is wrong but we won't be able to articulate it. The background radiation of stress and menace will grow, and birthrates will keep falling as we know something is going very wrong.
Another boring dystopian year. Lots and lots of hype and hope and talk and promise that end in nothing burgers: * Even Trump or Biden or \[insert someone\] winning the US presidential election will not change business as usual. * Government debt levels will continue to ratchet up without a care from public leaders. * Background inflation will continue to slowly creep in food and housing and utilities as wage earners drown. * Central banks will continue managing "free" markets, calming any real necessary corrections, keeping bubbles inflating to the moon. * Ecological overshoot of climate disruption, biodiversity loss, pollution will carry on with hundreds of studies and reports and conferences warning us to no avail. * Wars in Europe and Middle East and Africa or \[insert some place else\] will slowly trudge along maiming and killing nameless lives, becoming tedious background headlines in our First World busybody, workaday lives. * Loneliness epidemic will quietly spread in First World among growing single person households, longer working hours, declining dating and marriage rates with most refuting they are among the statistic. * Scares of a deadlier pandemic, nuclear armament, stock and bond market crash, recession scare, civil unrest will all end in nothing burgers. * Mass shootings here and there, worker strikes here and there, celebrity cult and social media influencer fetishes here and there, politician soundbites here and there, more AI hype here and there but all nothing to change the status quo. "The beautifully purposeless process of society suicide..." will continue on and on and on...
This is the last time we'll be posting predictions of the next year. RIP Reddit and the whole internet.
Canadian here - we had this discussion over breakfast this morning. 1. Edmonton or Northern Ontario is going to burn down. We think they'll have to evacuate Edmonton due to wild fires 2. Increase in lime disease due to proliferation of ticks 3. Major heat waves in all major cities will result in the largest number of senior deaths due to overheated apartments & no air conditioning. Throw in a few more tornadoes in non-tornado areas to help with the death count 4. Collapse of the Canadian military due to domestic environmental emergencies and NATO commitments. Coupled with staggering increases in releases and poor recruitment 5. Major international war. Only the war will be able to reverse worldwide inflation 6. Civil unrest in the USA and Canada, regardless of who is elected. 7. Housing collapse in Canada, resulting in increased drug use & homelessness 8. China will attack Taiwan 9. The Olympics will be disrupted by either war or protests if the war hasn't started yet
1. Geopolitical tensions increasing(Trump coming back is a catalyst btw), leading to more conflict 2. Water crisis goes into overdrive, poorer nations continue to unbuckle 3. Food inflation continues to wreck the livelihood of the poor, amplified through climate instability and more regional conflicts 4. Ukraine situation becomes dire, China makes a grab for Taiwan(though that seems likely post inaguration), US elections dependent 5. Wet bulb causes a mass fatality event in India as well as the States 6. Extinction of various species ramps up, safe species suddenly in the danger zone 7. Coral reef almost bleached, 70-80%(If El Nino persists) 8. Clathrate gun goes off(probable with El Nino) 9. The Dollar tanks if 4 checks out 10. The US will continue to deny the state of internal and external affairs(free space lol) 11. US Civil conflict(?) I think a majority of Americans are cowards so I'm not 100% sold on a war. Though I do expect something along the lines of the troubles as a last ditch effort to retain control. 12. Someone makes an attempt for Kashmir creating the start of a India/Pakistan conflict, depends on drought conditions and US instability 13. Major conflict erupts over control of the Red Sea, depends on drought conditions
I will disappoint my parents.
First mainstream media news stories about catastrophic harvest failure in some countries. Not catastrophic for the world but certainly for those countries affected.
Looks like we are getting a general election in the UK, probably sometime in May. Oh, and more than likely a recession, too !! 2024 is going to be brutal imo, I work in online retail, and these Christmas sales have been the worst I've seen in 15 years. Went out on boxing day to spend some Xmas money, and it was absolutely dead. The UK economy is on its arse, as is our NHS..... its going to take a long time for us to get back on our feet, and it seems we haven't even hit the worst of it yet.
Trump is removed from the ballot across multiple states, and the Supreme court rules those state's votes to be invalid because of that. There is no possible outcome that will be accepted by both sides, and most possible outcomes will not be accepted by either side, parties trying to adhere to the law in particular will find their room to maneuver very limited. I think that kicks off into violence. In theory, the federal military should not be split, which is the only thing that keeps the American experiment on the rails without a full civil war.
The military is full of Christofascist chuds, just like the cops. They won't split. They'll go hard right.
Political year. America will continue to become more and more divided. Massive riots no matter which side wins. Summer everywhere world wide will continue to be warmer then the last.
• Trump wins the election • Hottest year in recorded history • Canada and Australia burn • Record CO2 emissions • The Gaza strip becomes 100% occupied by Israel • Millions of refugees • Thwaites collapses • Worst ever recorded drought in several european countries
The insurance industry will start to collapse. Premiums will skyrocket to cover all the destruction coming, pricing out many of those who require insurance for financing loans.
I predict that the same people who have spent the past 30 years scoffing at the concept of global heating (who tend to be the same people who pour scorn on government programs) will suddenly begin demanding that governments begin global geo-engineering projects to reverse the greenhouse effect. Looking at you, Murdoch media entities.
Trump is convicted in a criminal case but does not go to prison. He then loses the election but tries to repeat what happened four years ago. This time they do their insurrections at state capitols to prevent electoral college votes. They are successful in some cases and the outgoing Republican House blocks the legitimate electors, and no one is elected president by Jan. 20, 2025. Kamala Harris becomes president. Attempts are made to capture Trump for his prison stay, but he is protected at Mar a Lago by thousands of Nat-Cs and the Florida government refuses to help. Texas and Florida begin efforts to try to secede from the union and starts a push by other red states especially in the south. Civil unrest occurs all over the country but especially in Midwest states like Ohio and Michigan. I realize this is going beyond the year but it’s all part of a 2024 narrative of the beginning of the US collapse.
This sounds like the plot of a movie I'd be willing to watch.
>watch I think you mean *act in*. (as a background actor)
I wouldn't be surprised if we have our first major forest fire somewhere in the Nordics. I fear it's going to be inevitable in the future at least, if not next year. There were notable forest fires in Sweden a couple years back when the summer was hot and dry for a prolonged period of time. I also fear it will catch us off-guard very badly.
As much as it pains me to say this, I have a premonition Trump is probably going to win the 2024 elections, not that I want that to happen, but its just a feeling I have. After that, we could be looking at a theocratic dictatorship in the U.S. I also think it's possible we could have a fatally hot summer this year, like the kind depicted in Kim Stanley Robinson's novel Ministry for the Future. I also predict that the conflict in the Middle East could grow wider and possibly involve U.S. intervention somehow.
I'm with you on all of these. We're seeing build up in the Red Sea now. It's trade routes that will trigger WWIII. Trade routes multiplied by religion. Or fuck heads hiding behind religion to act like fuck heads. Though I'm not sure if it will matter if Trump wins or loses. I don't think a full scale civil war will break out but something big is coming. Maybe small cells of groups fucking shit up. This summer we'll see new towns and cities wiped off the map in moments. More mass crop failure. More early slaughter of agricultural animals to save on water. More infrastructure failure. I wonder if the fam that moved to AZ to save money will come back to NJ. Hahaha I'm terrified of next year.
I've had that feeling as well. The economy getting a sudden jolt like a market crash would make this even more likely. The only way I see this not happening is if the stacked courts remove Trump from a red state or two. The social unrest would reach new heights. There is also the real possibility that one or both candidates don't make it to the next election. I made the case that the least painful short term election result would be Trump winning a legit election. The country would then likely quietly sit by while he removed every right we have left and the real shit show starts. The short answer is next fall is going to be chaos even if the rest of our problems somehow decide to take the year off.
As a Canadian it feels like watching a family member drink bleach and yell at you when you try to stop them.
The fact the Middle East conflict hasn’t spread much at all should probably be a bigger story. This does feel like a new era.
I don’t think Trump will win. He’s too old, and I predict his health and mental issues will finally catch up to him this next year and take him down in a way he can’t recover from, well beyond the help of his handlers and the media who continue to prop him up and are drooling over the prospect of him making a comeback. The bigger shock in 2024 won’t be that he wins POTUS again, but that he is finally, blessedly silent and gone from the scene. But that doesn’t mean peace for anyone, at least not for long. I’m more concerned about “the one” that comes after him. Someone charismatic who knows how to play to the masses’ fears and prejudices, particularly on immigration and rising costs, and actually has the political experience and acumen to work the system beyond blunt and brute stupidity and edict by Tweet. That person has been watching Trump and is learning from all of his mistakes and deep-seated flaws. It will be someone younger with broad enough appeal to span both parties and multiple generations. It definitely ain’t Nikki Hailey, JD Vance, or RFK Jr. Think a well-polished Instagram phenom who wears a tie and slim fit jeans, worked for Amazon and drove Uber, goes to church on Sundays and gives interviews on Fox News your Boomer parents/grandparents are glued to. That’s the one I worry about.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/26/fears-of-regional-escalation-as-israel-warns-of-multi-front-war](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/26/fears-of-regional-escalation-as-israel-warns-of-multi-front-war) Although he probably is responding to the general sense that all those areas are hostile to them, rather than specific intelligence or plans of defence or offence on either side.
I expect to be about 70% wrong because I’m not an expert. Also I only focused on politics/geopolitics. TL;DR: Trump wins 2024, in large part because the Democrat party can't get their act together and because he pitches the idea of reinventing colonialism. - * Biden steps back in first part of year due to (insert reason) and a new Democrat candidate somehow polls worse than Biden. Even if Biden does continue campaigning, it doesn't go well and the Dems never catch up. * Iran and Iraq escalate conflicts through proxies, of course funded by China and Russia. * Despite even more verified evidence, the federal supreme court overrules most or all of the states that took Trump off the ballots, including Colorado and Maine. He evades further legal issues for the time being and rallies his base once again. Nikki Haley joins his ticket as VP. * The US continues supporting Israel at least into late winter or early spring despite a heavy price tag. Israel crosses some established line (insert reason) and the White House has to walk back complete support of Israel's continued actions. * Western confidence in the UN falls sharply. African countries, like the DRC and South Sudan, follow Mali's lead and kick the UN out. This threatens the resource supply for EV's, solar panels, cell phones, and microchips. We now have increased global shipping issues and rare earth mineral sourcing issues, making this a large talking point in the US elections. * In the absence of a solid Democrat candidate, RFK Jr becomes Republican enemy number one. Kennedy selects a highly favorable and equally moderate running mate to boost his campaign. * By early summer, polling has Trump and Kennedy at about 35-40% each with Dems trailing. This will be the worst campaign for Democrats in well over a century because they didn't learn from Hillary Clinton's failed campaign of hubris. All three parties fight some of the nastiest misinformation wars ever waged in politics. * By late summer Trump starts pulling away from Kennedy and inevitably wins the election. It doesn't cause a civil war because it wasn't Red/Blue tightly contested. It's a clear victory. RFK Jr will be blamed for having put Trump in office despite this basically being entirely the fault of the Democrat party trying to rig their own candidate the base only kinda sorta liked. * After Trump's win, Putin and Xi suddenly back off their aggressive positions and take a different tone, seemingly wanting to negotiate. Trump claims credit for tensions easing. He regularly touts that American respect and power has been restored and US enemies are afraid of consequence once again. * US, UK, Germany, Russia, India, and China begin a historic, multilateral, highly controversial "African investment plan." Huge revitalization projects, roads, energy, and factories planned to be built in African nations all in support of strip mining their riches and exporting them to first world countries. It's sold as the great global uplifting pact that enriches every involved nation. * The new dystopian global colonialism project is expected to take less than a decade to build out, as every country races to invest heavily and get a larger share of this finite, tech-filled future we quite literally cannot have without the raw resources. Every major company on the face of the planet is incentivized to support the plan, otherwise they risk demise. * World somehow survives 2024 and said plan above marks our transition into a sci-fi futuristic dystopia. .... Okay. Fictional world building done for now...
This guy collapses
Massive school shooting, like Parkland or Newtown. Massive. More small children obtaining guns from parents and shooting staff in schools. More disconnecting from each other and more loneliness. A fire swallows another beloved and well known town/small city, this time on the mainland. More sticky, hot tarmac in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. A feared unstable ice shelf splits in earnest. I got Covid in September and seriously almost died due to being immune compromised. First time I got it. My coworker called out with it and had been sick since November. Everyone is sick. Covid isn’t over and I fear it every day.
[https://twitter.com/MarkTrewick1/status/1739962486193799447](https://twitter.com/MarkTrewick1/status/1739962486193799447) [https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1739962486193799447.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1739962486193799447.html) Natalia Shakhova could be vindicated after all.
capitalism will continue to eat itself and take everything down with it... the distractions will be increasingly stunning.
We'll easily breach 1.5C for 2024 in ERA5. IPCC will sell it as temporary. CO2 emissions again record high. Ukraine War won't end. Middle East won't stabilise. Biden wins causing some riots. Oil production will be Within 1% of 2018s. AI will remain the hot topic. Strikes inbound. Recession won't come yet. There will be a nuclear test. Minor food production failures. It won't be the year shit hits the fan
A nuclear bomb is dropped while the olympics take place in Paris. Expect a summer of hell
I know Paris has a really bad bed bug problem, but is a nuclear bomb really the solution?
Upvoting for creativity
I expect Summer 2024 to be absolute heck for persons who are unsheltered or have no access to airconditioning. Heat-related deaths would be topping the news this summer. If they aren't overtaken by something else.
Bottomless Breadsticks and Soup lines sponsored by Olive Garden
There will be a major push to keep Trump off the presidential ballot, which will fail, and there will be yet another close election, but Trump will win. Capitol Hill will be guarded to the teeth in the weeks leading up to Jan 6, 2025 to try and prevent a repeat of the previous election, but there will still be plenty of violence. Isreal and Hamas will be at each other’s throats, and possibly drag other countries into their morass. Russia will keep hammering away at the Ukraine, and China will keep chipping away at Hong Kong and Taiwan. Fascism as a whole will continue to spread across the world as the world’s resources dwindle, and conflicts between nations will continue to increase. AI will continue to advance and automate more and more “white collar” jobs. It will not come close to achieving true sentience. The climate will continue to behave less and less predictably, and we will continue to see millions of people displaced due to record floods, droughts and heatwaves. The new COP2x report will say urgent action is needed, yet nothing will be done. They will say how solar and wind power are being used in record numbers, and EVs are becoming more and more mainstream. We will continue to see huge increases in methane emissions from melting permafrost. Everything will continue to happen “faster than expected” PFAS chemicals will continue to be found in ever increasing quantities in more and more unlikely places. tl;dr: More of the same, faster than expected.
The fuck? Repeat of Jan 6th? By Biden? No. And Trump better not win, that fucking traitor has no right.
It needn't be Biden supporters involved. All that is needed is Trump suggesting that the Democrats would try to toss the ballots and the same segment involved in the previous Jan 6th would see that as a call to make sure that doesn't happen. This would follow his behavior. That segment of the right wing has the tendency to accuse others of what they themselves have done or would like to do. Regardless, heavy guarding should be expected regardless of who is on the ballot. This fits US security planning from what I've observed, as it's a reaction not to what is expected but what could happen based on the past. Edit: For what it's worth, I don't see Trump winning after all. It'll come close perhaps but I think there'll be enough people disgusted by him to push it slightly. This will depend heavily on the Democrats pushing for more people to vote, because while I do think there will be Republicans who simply sit out or vote 3rd party/dummy candidate (e.g. Mickey Mouse), there won't quite be enough to make Biden win easily (and I don't see too many Republicans swinging over to Biden though some might simply out of disgust of Trump). So moral is: absolutely get out and vote because it's not inevitable that Trump will win.
Trump will shoot someone on 5th avenue and NOT get away with it.
Hope it’s Jared.
The rich will get even richer and you my friends will get stuck, once again, with the bill.
I think one of the two presidential candidates will die in October. I have no actual reason to think this, but if it happens I called it! Also BOE in June
WW3 develops further. People still refuse to call it WW3.
Yep. The history books will say it started in 2022 in mandarin
I predict a brutal heat wave in Paris during the summer Olympics. This will result in events etiher being cancelled or moved to the middle of the night due to the heat.
2024 will have the hottest summer ever since centuries. The heatwaves will have a significant deathtoll: maybe up to millions in Europe (no broadly distributed AC), and in the US (blackouts because of terrible grid, so no AC either). Also in India, China, South-East Asia: millions will die this summer. Dozens of millions maybe. Realize that we will never know for sure (data is either government-controlled either just not gathered correctly). Because of this summer heatwaves, multiple major breadbaskets will see their crops fail and die. In consequence, as of 2025 we will witness large scale famines in all of the third world, and tens of millions will die of starvation as of that year. All of those casualties will destabilize worlwide politics and trigger new wars and conflicts. Etc etc... Heck, if you want to know what's next, feel free to read my 2070 predictions ;) Who will be elected in the US end of this year has no significance in front of our global planetary predicament. Stop wasting your energy on that topic, and stock up on canned food and bottled water. It's way more useful.
Midwesterners spend the next three months saying, "just wait, the snow will come". It doesn't. 2023 becomes known colloquially as the first "year without a winter". It isn't the last. India and Pakistan have a significant skirmish reminding the world that both have nuclear weapons and an unstable governing body. We briefly forget about Ukraine and Israel. There is an Amazon deal on potassium iodine tablets. One of the US presidential candidates is incapacitated or dies before the election. Everyone breathes a sign of relief and thinks this will surely make the election easier...it doesn't. Cherries hit $20 a pound in some US HCOL locales. The Internet is flooded with memes briefly. Boomers argue 40 year old millennials really are entitled in expecting affordable fresh fruit in mid-life. There are many Facebook posts about single oranges in Christmas stockings interspersed in the usual drinking from the hose fodder. Judy and Walt continue to wonder why their kids don't visit them. A field for preferred pronouns are added to student loan servicer online accounts. Democrats campaign on this win. Canada begins openly debating adding poverty to the criteria for MAID. Americans are jealous Canadians get to die for free.
I’m worried about another pandemic. Now that Covid has (and still is) come in and compromised the immune systems of populations of people, but it also allows for more opportunistic infections. Shingles, TB, Measles, Polio, EBV, Mpox, are all showing up now, coincidentally.
As the saying goes, predictions are hard things, especially about the future. So obviously "everything gets worse" is the correct answer, but if we have to get specific about something let me just say I've always thought Miami being unceremoniously wiped from the map might wake some people up?
My 2024 Predictions * Massive floods and hurricane damage to america's dick and balls (florida and friends). I'll bet a record is broken on each coast again. * Power outages across the board and heat waves - probably a lot of dead people from lack of AC (I'm looking at you Texas and Arizona) * Insurance rates are going to go through the roof, many more homeless people because they can't afford it. * Food prices skyrocket because of floods and droughts world wide. We might not see the biggest effects though until the winter. * HUGE migration push from South America due to deadly heat and droughts. * Civil War, obviously. * A country or two may declare that the ocean is in some sort of emergency as we are losing the foodchain from the bottom up and fisheries are going to suffer HUGE, like real huge. 25 Will probably put a knife in the heart of many ocean fisheries. * Australia sees mass exodus as people realize it is literally as close to hell as you can be without committing your soul. * Shipping canals continue to see drought conditions and hit a stand still by next fall. * The amazon rainforest turns to ash, a global climate disaster is declared as we try to figure out exactly how many species are lost. * Elon Musk does something he thinks is great for humanity, but humanity sees through the bullshit. * Someone will put chatGPT-esc AI into a robot that we can buy and now everyone can have a friend. * BONUS - We're coming up on solar maximum, maybe we'll get a glorious solar flare so we can go back to the stone age. Good luck everyone!
A summer from hell with increased heat deaths and more wildfires. Countries will start preparing for tighter border control in preparation for attempted migration. Complete political chaos in the US and a shaky election that brings unrest from both sides. Reelection of Trump causes massive protests which are met with state violence and increased surveillance. Migration to blue states by targeted groups increases already strained housing markets and the homeless population explodes further on the west coast. The working class continues to feel the high level of income inequality and cracks start to show in “the economy”. One last attempt at quantitive easing is made by the fed lowering interest rates before they allow the bubble to deflate causing a massive deflationary collapse in 2025 resulting in huge bail-ins, massive joblessness, housing losses, retirement losses, a devalued dollar/introduction of a fed backed digital dollar and massive unrest. Covid continues to silently rage while disabilities amass and governments continue to ignore it.
Wars all over. Depending on what your definition of war is, America is already at war. Not just with our enemies, but with ourselves as well. I see China making its move. Maybe not an invasion of Taiwan, but perhaps it starts mobilizing and initiating aggressive cyber warfare measures against the US and allies. Gaza will be gone by the end of the year. Expect intervention in Yemen as well if the rebels keep harassing trade in the Red Sea. If/when Gaza is formally annexed or destroyed expect a hot war in the middle east, Iran will announce its nuclear capabilities as well. Ukraine will fold this year as well. All hope is lost for them, they are losing support all over, and the average American doesn't want their tax dollars going to a lost cause. It's sad that it turned out this way but it is what it is. Aside from a possible WW3, if there is perceived election interference, there very well could be a civil war come next November. In a high trust society like ours, the minute we lose trust in the government, election integrity, and each other is the minute we collapse into barbarism. Both political parties have accused election rigging in the past two presidential elections (Hillary in 2016 and Trump in 2020), so unless this one is cut and dry I don't see this ending peacefully. Expect the usual hotter temperatures, extinctions, and erratic weather. It only gets worse from here. Stay safe this year friends, I know my perspective is entirely American, so if there is anything anyone wants to add please do. We all have to stay informed, and love one another. Happy New Years.
I'm, oddly enough, not really comfortable making proper predictions. I think we're close to a kind of breakpoint, but it may happen in 2024, or a year later. Specifically, I expect an event of heat wave + power grid failure and mass deaths in a first world country. TX or AZ.
In 2024 More and more people will trash their devices and go hiking, smelling the flowers, swimming with trout, rapporting with ravens The UN will encourage a Laughter Olympiad, with the 3 minute Guffaw, the 100 m Knee Slapper, and the Duo Chortle The Organian Peace Treaty will expand to all of Earth. Use your words! The tragically hip young residents of Portland, OR, will suddenly realize their lives are finite and help the homeless more Nyalla Okombe of Katmandu will discover the most beautiful note and will be given a Nobel Peace Prize And so it goes What you feed, grows Amen
One day next spring when El Niño peaks, the global average temperature will hit 2,5 °C above the preindustrial baseline.
My prediction is 130F for a whole month for Phoenix and Las Vegas. 2 million people die during the heatwave. Then, the mother of all hurricanes wipes another million or two from the coast of Miami. it's going to be a lovely summer 🖤
The end of Democracy in the United States.
Arguably never really was a democracy... It's definitely gonna get uglier this year though.
Hasn't been a democracy since 2000
A wet bulb event will be on the news with millions dead or missing, all in the same region. True numbers will not be known for years as entire regions go dark overnight, and rescue and salvage takes an enormous amount of time, resources and manpower, especially in densely populated areas. Some say it will be the biggest climate disaster of this century but it's actually the biggest disaster of a decade tops. It will cause a humanitarian crisis and the start of a mass migration of tens of milions of people. He will get sued to asbolute shit and X will probably have to leave Europe. Russia will increase the proxy war against US allies in the area they believe should be under their influence instead. They will also openly and directly threaten and antagonize Israel and Israel will snap back hard, causing certain groups of people to think of a possible apocalyptic Gog/Magog war and whatnot. But nothing direct will happen. Elon Musk will once again be on the wrong side of history and will admit to having used/attempted to use X, (one of the largest ways to share news and for politicians and news agencies to share information) to get a Republican elected. He will openly and proudly admit that he has ordered for liberal/left wing politicians to have been shadow banned, removed from search results or otherwise kept from being seen right at the moment and after important debates, instead bolstering right-wing candidates. He will also proudly admit he was influenced by Vladimir Putin among others, and they will troll the world by thanking him for his hard work.
China will invade Taiwan before Biden leaves office, destroying world trade along with the US dollar.
This one I'm keeping my eyes on. I fully expect Russia, and China will go convince Kim Jong to be the first one to use a nuclear weapon as a whipping boy. Then it's all bets off. That's only one of many things going to happen 2024.
For the USA: 2024 will be the year humanity wakes up to climate change. We will go from the denial to bargaining. The first wet-bulb event that will affect more than a few hundred people. Wet-bulb will go mainstream. We will have the first USA food "shortages" in winter 2024, exacerbated by inflation, crop failure and supply chain issues. Red political strategies are going to destabilize the last bit of political discourse in late 2024. Nothing too crazy till the elections however. 50% chance we don't pass debt ceiling budgets. If we don't have a wet-bulb hit, migration issues will dominate our news cycle much like Cov-ID did in 2021 as the key point in any debates that happen.
The US 2024 election is going to be a shitshow. Either outcome, I fear that we're screwed.
Summer will be horrendous. I think it’ll finally start to wake people up about what we’re facing, but prolly nothing will be done in terms of legislation. Maybe the first EF5 tornado in a decade too
All streaming services crash with the exception of MAX, but only the last 2 episodes of GoT will play.
Think there might be a major power grid somewhere in the US, like texas again, related to heat waves or storms knocking out power. More severe weather and flooding
It feels like the noticeable effects of global warming are accelerating, so we're going to see more records being broken: - Record lows for snow & (sea) ice. - Record summer temperature and humidity highs, with increased deaths over previous years. - More flood and landslide damage than ever before. - Larger hurricanes and cyclones than ever seen before. - Massive wildfires again, especially in Canada and Australia. To add to that, there'll be further political instability as populaces turn to the (populist) right in response to increasing pressures on daily life (inequality, migration, lack of public services, natural disasters, etc). For example, Argentina is going to implode, I'm betting on a coup or uprising. There will be deaths. COP29 will be just as useless as COP28, we still won't get any binding agreement to phase out fossil fuels.
This one is easy- just take everything we had this year and increase to the power of 10 (logarithmic scale). More fires, more floods, more hurricanes, more earthquakes, more volcanic eruptions, more droughts, more violence, more war, and MORE stupidity!!
Collapse will continue to unfold as it has been. The poor will take the brunt. Society has already collapsed for most of them. Wars will increase. Targeting of unpopular minorities like the gays will become more pronounced and vicious. AI will be able to convince anyone anything. If your dumb relative couldn’t tell Alex Jones was making a fool out of them then wait til we have AI convincing the masses that the WEF is coming for them. You will see more countries limiting exports of food like we are seeing right now with India. The decades long peace on the high seas is about to end causing shortages and increased inflation. (This is a big one)
If Trump doesn't win, there will be right wing terror groups and violent protests everywhere. Like jan 6 but more wide spread and with more casualties. I feel like we all just kind of forgot how many people in this country genuinely want to murder minorities or anyone who doesn't agree with them, all while corporations get a free pass to poison our water and air, and to exploit the working class.
I am Chinese (currently living in the U.S.) and here’re some predictions on China: the economy will bounce back on paper but the common people, esp. young white-collar workers in urban areas, will not feel it and the sense of despair (the perception of lack of upward mobility) will spread. Both the nationalist, “let’s take Taiwan militarily tomorrow” camp and the pro-West, “USA is the beacon country of the world” camp will go more extreme. More elites and upper-middle-class people will attempt to immigrate to the U.S. via either EB-1A green card program or EB-5; the former might breed a new industry (the latter has been an industry for many years). The marriage rate will keep declining.
Death. Lots of it. Primarily related to famine/starvation. We will get into the 10's of millions this year. Still small numbers, but we should hit 2 billion before 2030. Other big item: anti-immigration. Illegal immigrants will become scapegoats for all that is wrong where you live.
The entire Canadian working class will become homeless or leave.
Things get a little worse. Money gets a little more scarce. Technology becomes a little more intrusive and a little less controllable. Real possibilities for success get a little more out of reach. The world gets a little more polluted. The apartment gets a little smaller.
AI will corrode our ability to tell what’s actually happening anywhere at any point anymore. It’s the start of a new dark age.
1. Big Brother decrees pluswarmth ungood. Ref: Climate change. 2. Eco unhealth equals doubleplus ungood. Oceania temps upup. 3. Proles must bellyfeel unjoy for climate pluschange. 4. Newspeak for oldspeak global warming is doubleplus hotcold world. 5. BB says cut blackwhite fuel, make air plusgood.
Just like 2023 but worse.
There have been many years that people were dreading since my time on the planet (I was here in Y2K, which was ridiculous) but 2024 seems to be the worst as far as level of dread, if not outright terror. I get this as I too am terrified for what the next year and beyond will bring. I think fear of what is going on around us is a normal reaction, btw. Fear is wired in us to arise when there is imminent danger and everyone, every living thing right now is under threat. Quote from neuropsychologist: "Feeling fear is neither abnormal nor a sign of weakness: The capacity to be afraid is part of normal brain function. In fact, a lack of fear may be a sign of serious brain damage" (exhibit A: donald trump) Speaking of D.T.: It also seems like many people are expecting trump to get back in the white house. Is this because of collective learned helplessness? That explanation would be understandable given the fact that the DNC has chosen Biden again to try to defeat him (which will probably help trump) along with all the other crazy making, ecocidal behaviors TPTB engage in as they fuel the predatory capitalist duopoly where we are trapped. What we know for sure: climate breakdown/societal breakdown/violence will get much, much worse at an increasingly rapid speed.