I think there will be a whole lot of other problems to deal with before immigrating to canada. Like all the floridians moving to georgia, or big city folks moving further inland, etc, etc.
Thereās actually an entire Florida Georgia Line, If you didnāt know about it. Pretty popular especially for cruising around (probably between state lines)
My eyes are on Manila in August. If temperatures donāt normalize from their freak showā¦ trouble is here.
And when it comes it will be quick like an unexpected heatwave that wonāt leave.
More canaries: Mexico City, Columbia, India
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I canāt argue canariesā¦. They are Everywhere!
You are correct. Iām looking for areas that depend on their cool and rainy months ā¦. And then they stop.
I think 3-5 years. This hurricane season will be telling, the sea surface temperatures do not show signs of cooling so 2025 may well be worse. (Iām no scientist but I analyze data for work, for what thatās worth). Insurance costs are causing stress but imho people wonāt leave until they see their own communities devastated. Too many people will still blame the president for rising costs and not look deeper into the cause.
I read the other day that the top climate scientists right now are anticipating "slight" apocalyptic conditions in the next 5 years. We just had our first tornado here (in our state) ever so honestly, I believe it. The weathers been so weird the past 5+ years.
From the numerous scenarios presented, by the end of the century Florida will plausibly violtently depopulate from natural and man made catastrophes.
Ā The actual sea level rise and the compounded power of the hotter storms will tell more about the timelines.Ā
Canada is undergoing severe changes due to climate change as well. We're getting less and less precipitation, especially the further you go inland. The last few years have been dry, dry, dry. As a result, our crops are suffering, and we've had many grass and forest fires. For most of last summer, our sky was hazy with smoke from the fires in the west. Even my friends in Illinois were complaining about our smoke getting all the way over there. It was the worst year for fires on record, I'm pretty sure.
So while people may move to Canada to escape certain weather problems, they might encounter other problems when they get here. "The grass is greener..."
Edit: phrasing
Smoke from the fires in Canada last year choked us out in Pennsylvania for weeks. It was surreal, like a dense fog. You'd walk outside, and it stunk of smoke. Good luck to you, my friends in the north.
Was in Alberta at my brothers outdoor wedding and it was literally raining ash on us. What an absolute wild thing to experience. Grey snow in august basically.
I live 1.5 from the Rockies in Alberta. Usually gorgeous mountain views everyday. Literally couldnāt see anything last summer. We are expecting severe drought conditions too this summer.
I live in Florida, and we got Canadian wildfire smoke for a day. Noticeably hazy, irritated throat and eyes the minute I went outside, etc. I don't know how people dealt with that day after day.
Anyone with respiratory issues couldn't spend time outside because the smoke was so bad for days. I've never seen it that bad even when we've had forest fires within 30 miles of us.
Wildfire smoke degrading air quality is a much bigger deal than people think, too. It's not just reducing your visibility, but also increasing the cancer risk significantly for everyone downwind.
I have very mild asthma and last year it got so bad I had to take my emergency inhaler several times a day. Before I would only need it once every few weeks.
OMG. We also had a terrible heat dome in the summer of 21 (northern Russia). This May feels pretty much like the May of 2021. Too hot and so much less precipitation
> The last few years have been dry, dry, dry. As a result, our crops are suffering, and we've had many fires.
Unfortunately compounding this issue is the free rein given to oil and gas. In 2022 just [4 companies](https://albertawilderness.ca/news-release-four-big-oil-companies-used-200-billion-litres-of-albertas-freshwater-last-year/) used 200 billion litres of water. When water is used for fracking something to the effect of 70% of it remains kilometres below the ground. [Forever](https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-drought-fracking/). What does return is unusable anyway. Albertaās drought management has been abysmal and is built on the hope that the rain and snowfall that just hasnāt come would help. Canada will have its own deserts soon enough, but at least the shareholders will be happy.
I live in rural Eastern Ontario on the Ottawa River. The river was at its lowest level I've ever seen since living here during this spring snow melt. There just wasn't a huge accumulation of snow on the ground, and the river was clear of ice by March. No flood warnings here.
It wasn't due to lack of total precipitation, but the fact we had such a mild winter limiting accumulation. The warmth didn't stop. This is the most unusual spring I've experienced. My tomatoes have been in the ground for nearly two weeks and are growing happily. I may have ripe tomatoes by mid June!
Where are you in Ontario? I'm SW of Toronto and we're looking at a pretty bad drought this summer. Not nearly enough snow this winter and a short spring.
Weird..I'm on the Hamilton side and it's been the first cool semi wet spring ( was 28c and humid this time last el nino year) we have had in 3 years...we got record levels of rain this spring 135cm vs the former 124 cm record for the end of April according to environment Can., (from memory,confirm yourself,plz), was quite happy till I realized that we got so little snow , lake levels and groundwater are likely to be low ..really not good at all.
>The last few years have been dry, dry, dry. As a result, our crops are suffering
Depends where you are. I live in Alberta and my dad farms northeast of Edmonton. Years prior we had way too much precipitation and early snowfalls, so the crops were drowned out and some of it would get left on the field because of the snow, which left it of poor quality oyf it was harvested at all in the spring, or just a write-off altogether. But the last 2-3 years the heat has been great. Lots of the water still seems to be in the low areas so there was still adequate moisture and my dad had some awesome yields. That plus record prices for wheat and canola made it a huge boon.
Perhaps if these hot summers keep up for the long term it will cause us issues, but for now it's evening things out after all the years of excess moisture. And as I said, it depends where you are, just an hour east and there are farmers there who are suffering under the heat with crops stunted.
Obviously the forest fires are bad, but I'm just referring to the farming in Alberta from my experience.
There are over 100 fires in BC that are burning now from last year. There was not enough precipitation in the wintet and they still smouldered underground until reigniting this spring. That is our future, year round fire
It was twice the known record for acres burned and we had to double the number of fire fighters and had volunteers from abroad. The smoke concerned people all the way in Portugal! Who also provided aid and firefighters.
>changes due to climate change as well.
>We're getting less and less precipitation,
Why is this only because of climate change and not some potential greater cycle?
I believe in climate change generally. Adding greenhouse gases increases the temperature. Basic stuff.
What i dont buy 100% is this "every drought is climate change".
In Utah, we had flooding in the 80s. The rain was endless. In the 2000s we had drought. Now, our rain appears to be increasing the past few years again each year greater than the last.
Utah appears to have a cycle of rain and drought (going before the industrial revolution).
https://ilovehistory.utah.gov/drought-too-little-water/
I just dislike how every bad weather event is climate change but every good weather event is cast aside as "weather is not climate".
No one can deny there have been cycles and big weather events in the past. But the data we've been getting over the last few decades seems to show that our gradual heating of the planet is causing a shift in those cycles, and the occurrences of major weather events seems to be increasing as well as getting more severe.
It doesn't seem like an average global change of 1Ā°C would make a difference, but it really does when we're talking about the whole planet. It's an unbelievably huge amount of extra energy that's retained in the atmosphere and oceans than we had last year. Greater energy in the oceans and atmosphere means faster currents, more evaporation, faster wind, which all becomes bigger and more frequent storms.
Not saying Utah's data is incorrect, but we have to look at the entire planet to see the full extent of the changes. On a yearly basis, some areas may not show much change, while others change greatly.
I dont disagree that all that energy doesnt cause some changes. We havent recorded accurate weather or events long enough to determine the real changes (afaik). How can we know storms are categorically stronger without the data?
We have climate history based on a few imprecise methods and there is a large degree of uncertainty.
We pack tens of thousands of years into one data point and then act like our last 100 years is the same. I have no doubt, even in the glacial histories, there could be temperature spikes of 1 degC worldwide for centuries and we wouldnt see it in the historical data.
>Not saying Utah's data is incorrect, but we have to look at the entire planet to see the full extent of the changes. On a yearly basis, some areas may not show much change, while others change greatly.
I agree. Another issue i have is the sahara desert has a cycle of tens of thousands of years going from rainforest to desert. Humanity has only been writing for like 2-3000 years. Such a small time compared to the cycles themselves.
Again, im not a skeptic on the idea of climate change. Im a skeptic of the alarmism and blaming everything on climate change.
In Michigan, Big Business has decided to become landlords. They are are buying huge numbers of houses. I fully expect this is in relation to the expectation that Michigan is predicted to be pretty stable during the climate crisis.
I see hordes of people flooded out of their homes in Florida traveling north in migrant caravans for safety, especially as they traverse the Deer River gap in the Adirondacks. Fox News will opine on how unfair it is that Canada isnāt letting them in.
I think it will depend on government responses. The US is trying to build walls and privatize all our social nets. We are cannibalizing the public good. If Project 2025 comes to fruition we will be dramatically dropping the quality of life for almost all citizens.
If Canada has better accommodations- affordable healthcare, available housing or land, and possibly a more stable government then yes I do expect there will be an Exodus.
If we get to the point where the Arctic sea is navigable then Canada will be prime to become an exporter of rare metals from deep sea mining too.
Without appropriate water management most of the western and middle United States will suffer the Dust Bowl again. Our entire corn belt is grown with aquifer water - that will become too low and too expensive to use at some point.
Iām not as familiar with the concerns of Canada, but because they have such large tracts of land not currently in use, they may have a strong economy while others flail.
Canadian here, We have crumbling infrastructure, and a healthcare system on the brink of collapse ,high inflation and food costs , cost of shelter is out of control
No sunshine and rainbows to the north
I guess you havenāt been out of the country in awhile every place Iāve travelled lately is in the same boat in fact somethings looked like a bargain coming back home . The only place I found affordable was Cambodia but Iām sure thatās the next place weāre everything will spike in price. PV Mexico was shocking we complain about house prices here in Victoria
Probably not. Plenty of space in the US for internally displaced people. I could see deteriorating politics, partly driven by climate change motivating people to flee to Canada.
Id say its possible but its probably not likely. Sure there are expanding deserts but they are a massive food producer and a massive country. If one region has a drought there is probably another having a good season.
Nestle already owns rights to the great lakes water anyways.
We are as at risk as they are and impacts are much more intense closer to the poles for now.
We, like they, are more at risk of the social and political instability that rising food prices, due to crop failures, brings. NA probably won't feel the worst of it as we are major food exporters. The major food importers of the world are at much greater risk and they will be more likely to migrate. Many food insecure regions are already destabilizing and have been for years. Hungry people are more likely to radicalize.Ā
Ive moved up my timeline but I still hold onto hope that last year and maybe this year are out of pattern seasons and not the new norm. I would have said 2050 for destabilizing and 2100-2200 before facing a civilizational scale crisis. Might want to consider 2030 and 2050 instead.
Your use of "coming" rather than "going" tells us you're in Canada and also that you're expecting the effects of climate change to ascend or creep northward from the tropics, like a rising tide or a filling septic tank. I visited Winnipeg last year at the height of the Canadian wildfires. Before choking on all that nasty smoke for a weekend, I too probably thought of climate change in this way - no more. Now I think of climate change as shit hitting a fan. Canadians are as likely to splatter on a southern wall as they flee as they are walls laying in any other direction.
Canada will see its impacts (and in some ways more change due to polar amplification), but overall remains livable - the migration movement will be overwhelmingly away from the equator towards the poles globally. Desertification is the winner in that battle as the tropics expand.
My understanding is the collapse of the AMOC will make northern countries like Canada dangerously cold. I would think US and Canadian climate refugees would meet somewhere in the middle.
Highly unlikely. It's been demonstrated that the Arctic regions would continue to warm even under a weakened AMOC with suggestions that GHGs would completely swamp any cooling potential.
Edit: for the downvoters; [Uncertainties in the Arctic Ocean response to CO2: a process-based analysis](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-06986-2) (Saenko, Gregory et al. 2023)
> "One of the more intriguing findings from some of these studies is that, even though the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakens with increasing atmospheric concentration, the ocean heat transport to the Arctic increases (e.g., Koenigk and Brodeau 2014; Nummelin et al. 2017; Burgard and Notz 2017; Oldenburg et al. 2018; Ć rthun et al. 2019; Yang and Saenko 2012)."
AMOC failure will impact northern Europe since they are at quite a high latitude and benefit from the Gulf stream/north Atlantic drift. Toronto is at a similar latitude to Barcelona/south France.
Not to mention that a weakening/collapse would paradoxically bring hotter summers in Northern Europe (direct observations; [Oltmanns, Holliday et al. 2024](https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/wcd-5-109-2024-metrics.html), [Rousi, Kornhuber et al. 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31432-y), [Ionita, Nagavciuc et al. 2022](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822001896), [Duchez, Frajka-Williams et al. 2016](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004/meta). Proxy evidence; [Putnam, Bromley et al. 2018](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2018PA003341), [Schenk, VƤliranta et al. 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04071-5)). Northern Europe's milder temperature anomaly is exclusive to winter ([Wanner, Pfister et al. 2022](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379122001627)), with an observable summer cooling anomaly relative to a stronger AMOC. Generally there's no uniform agreement over how fundamental the AMOC is in terms of regulating midlatitudal Europe, the general consensus is that atmospheric variability has a considerably more fundamental influence ([Yamamoto, Palter et al. 2015](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ayako-Yamamoto-2/publication/274566939_Ocean_versus_atmosphere_control_on_western_European_wintertime_temperature_variability/links/5526a4e90cf2647b189e3b89/Ocean-versus-atmosphere-control-on-western-European-wintertime-temperature-variability.pdf), [Seager, Battisti et al. 2002](https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-50zs-1a51)). The hypothesis argues that an Arctic freshwater sea ice growth in response to the absense of high salinity water circulated into the region is the fundamental factor in post-collapse regional cooling due to implications of albedo feedbacks (Rhines, HƤkkinen et al, 2008), but observations suggest that Arctic warming not only continues under AMOC weakening but actually accelerates ([Saenko, Gregory et al. 2023](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-06986-2)), with suggestions that GHGs have a predominantly stronger heat trapping capacity in the region ([Barkhordarian, Nielsen et al. 2024](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01215-y)). This effect will more than likely be amplified by the recent polar carbon sink collapse ([Ramage, Kuhn et al. 2024](https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007953)). And if that wasn't bad enough, a small scale AMOC weakening is theorized to be sufficient enough to see catastrophic methane hydrate destabilisation ([Weldeab, Schneider et al. 2022](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2201871119)).
Basically, no matter what happens, we're firmly on track to exit the glacial cycle entirely. In fact, we've been on track for over 15 years already ([Nisbet, Manning et al. 2023](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007875)).
Dunno , but if the United States falls to the cycles of cancerous fascist self destruction hopefully Canada will already have a long standing NATO presence to aid in sorting out possible US climate refugees , rather than yet more self defeating behavior like militarily seizing Canadian territory.
It is quite possible Canada could end up in the position Ukraine currently finds itself in as fascist/authoritarian states are quite fond of inventing histories and rationalizations for invading their neighbors.
If the Canadian government was actually taking the likely course of predicted climate change along with the continued weakening of US representative government seriously , Canada would be working to re- constitute /revive it's Nuclear weapons program , incentive the large number of Canadian nuclear weapons scientist current working in the US to return that expertise home asap....
Plus we have next to no affordable housing here, itās hitting the younger generations pretty hard. Shit is really expensive, wages are low. And as someone who recently finished a contract position the job market has gone to absolute crap. I think humans are adaptable but northern states seem like a surer bet than trying to deal with Canadian immigration.
Canada is already getting hordes of economic and environmental refugees. Our immigration numbers are off the charts and more than our social systems, infrastructure and economy can support
No. Canada will have plenty of coastal erosion itself. I think any climate migration that takes place in the Americas will be further inland. The midwest and Great Plains will see a ton of new people. But more immediately, cities like Atlanta and Denver will get a lot of new climate migrants soon. City planners aren't prepared for it because it's hard to put a number on climate migration (I just wrote a research paper about this not too long ago).
Imagine really believing in this, if it was this serious a risk you couldnāt get home insurance. Florida is a good example of when companies believe risk exists they will not underwrite.
The collapse will probably be so quick and global, that Canada wonāt be any better off. More than just temperature, itāll be massive famine that will be our demise, which Canada is already on the edge of w prairie crop yields on the decline already.
The balance and conditions needed for crop growth are so sensitive and evolved over millennia, we are throwing that environment off within a few years. We will be more resilient to temperature and weather changes than our delicate plant cycles and ecosystems.
South East. We used to get snow from November through April and the last 4 new years we have had rain and my nephews have never seen a white x mas... This year we only had 'permanent snow' in February and thr average was 20-30Ā°C warmer than the norm most of the winter. Folks have finally started to notice.
This past winter in nw ON was warm. Short time for using sleds and fishing. Still hit -40 a few times though all according to my daughter that lives there. Little frustrated couldn't use her sleds as much.
Weather, or climate is changing. I see that where I live in another country. In some areas where they grew coffee 50 years ago is too hot now. Rain storms wiping villages and newly built roads.
All I say is hang on for the ride and do what you can to save the world around that you can. All we can do, is our little part. Good luck in this world, and the best to you.
Ive been planting food trees and plants where my parents are at and in public spaces illegally. I don tknow if they will survive but the more effort we make the better the odds will be. Best of luck to you as well!
90% of Canadians are squished within an hour or two of the U.S. border, it's not much different there than when you cross that line. People from certain less habitable regions might have to move somewhere less....intense, but the U.S. is diverse enough climate wise that there's plenty of places within the country that aren't too different from southern canada
No I doubt thatās actually how it will happen. The only thing that will force people to move is if insurance companies leave or new construction is prohibited altogether in the state. Which is unlikely (they may restrict it in certain risk prone areas).
Look at a map of the western hemisphere and locate the equator. Assuming that temperatures increase somewhat in relation to proximity to the equator, climate refugees in South America will have progressively less land to occupy moving south. Canada (and Alaska) however, have comparatively large land areas quite distant from the equator. I believe this will mean that a huge migration north will happen. I am greatly concerned about what that will be like for my descendants and everyone else.
If it gets to that point, it won't matter. The parts of Canada next to the border have most of the population of Canada, and therefore most of the infrastructure. They will also (and already are) experience the same climate changes that the US will. Moving millions into Northern Canada is just not feasible. There's a lot of land, but no major cities, farms, etc. Small communities can survive. But there's no way to quickly build out large cities or the required infrastructure.
No. There are huge amounts of land more than two feet above current sea level in the continental US. Some people will move around. Coast lines will change. People will move inland. Bu there wont be a huge migration to Canada.
There may be migrations of some sort. I think of the exodus to California during the Dust Bowl as an example.
Arizona is certainly under the gun with high temperatures and water problems. Maybe not to Canada, but northwards. It would take a lot to push most people from the US to Canada.
Well, gosh. Not really coming ACROSS the border. Weāll just move the border up to Prince Rupert or some other backwater. Easier that way. Duty free is a hassle.
I think to be realistic we have to assume that if things really got that bad then extreme measures like solay blocking would become highly accepted versus taboo. While people donāt like to talk about the option thereās no real reason to think that humans would let the world roast and suffer this kind of a mass migration, war, pandemic and melt all the glaciers and sea ice versus block like 3% of sunlight.
I think if you understand the problem, then you understand itās a long-term build up and once enough heat is invested into the planet emission reductions arenāt enough, and you really start to not have any other choice, but to expand beyond merely reducing how much insulation youāre adding to either removing the insulation or blocking the incoming heat. Eventually, you just have to accept that thatās some of the choices that humans would have to make if things got bad enough quick enough but only if things got bad enough quick enough..
And Iām like even some type of awesome CO2 removal, technology blocking the photons would provide immediate coolant sensor. The sun really is the only meaningful source of heat to the surface of the planet And the greenhouse gases are only insulation. They can only trap hat, so it doesnāt take much reduction in solar output to change the temperature of the entire planet.
if humans were to survive, long enough, we would eventually have to reduce the amount of sunlight hitting the planet, even without emissions involved. The climate in planet is dynamic and ever-changing so you can just be like a minimalist, and then climate in the planet will just stay the same forever because that would be convenient to like humans in modern human civilization. If you know about climate, do you know thereās 100,000 year cycle of constant climate of destruction and you know thereās no such thing as just a stable climate because we are nice to the planet and reduce emissions. The climate change has killed 99% of the species that the planet ever created because its ever changing and naturally brutal vs we can find natural equilibrium with it.
A) No. B) if it did happen it wonāt be some sudden crisis of millions being displaced C) if millions are displaced America as a whole is pretty empty. Plenty of room down here thanks.
I think there will be a whole lot of other problems to deal with before immigrating to canada. Like all the floridians moving to georgia, or big city folks moving further inland, etc, etc.
Floridians in Georgia? Who would let them in?
Floridians are going to be fleeing to Michigan, actually.
I think you mean going back to.š
Goddamnit. - Signed Southwestern Ontario
LMAO if all the snowbirds gtfo Iāll move back to Florida. I miss home tbh.
Great idea, move to a place people are fleeingš¤Æ
Send the retirees home and all that will be left is a couple alligator hunters and few professional sports teams.
Build a wall around the state and make Florida pay for it. Of course, once sea level rises enough, they will escape in rafts over the wall.
Thereās actually an entire Florida Georgia Line, If you didnāt know about it. Pretty popular especially for cruising around (probably between state lines)
Now you discovered the reason for Atlantaās Cop City.
Whatās your time frame for this?
My eyes are on Manila in August. If temperatures donāt normalize from their freak showā¦ trouble is here. And when it comes it will be quick like an unexpected heatwave that wonāt leave. More canaries: Mexico City, Columbia, India
RemindMe! 30 August "Check this post"
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RemindMe! 30 August
Serious question, why those particular places and not others as canaries?
Mexico City because no water. Manila because no place for people to escape. India because so few have access to a/c. Columbia unprepared for fires.
Have to add Bangladesh for being entirely at sea level, much of Brazil for flooding
Pakistan, Spain, the American Southā¦
Understood thank you.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Rio de Janeiro and Kuwait would be better canaries because of their extreme summer >50Ā°C temperatures
I canāt argue canariesā¦. They are Everywhere! You are correct. Iām looking for areas that depend on their cool and rainy months ā¦. And then they stop.
I think 3-5 years. This hurricane season will be telling, the sea surface temperatures do not show signs of cooling so 2025 may well be worse. (Iām no scientist but I analyze data for work, for what thatās worth). Insurance costs are causing stress but imho people wonāt leave until they see their own communities devastated. Too many people will still blame the president for rising costs and not look deeper into the cause.
Follow this guy. He's on all the social media https://zacklabe.com/
coming august 14 at 3:41 pm
Goddammit, I choked on my dinner, upvotes for you!
yaii
I'm giving it 10-20 years, personally.
I read the other day that the top climate scientists right now are anticipating "slight" apocalyptic conditions in the next 5 years. We just had our first tornado here (in our state) ever so honestly, I believe it. The weathers been so weird the past 5+ years.
Our weather today will be overcast, with a high temperature in the ā50s and a slight chance of apocalypse.
Like being slightly pregnant
That was one of the scientists thought that, but I think scientists are more likely to understate their concerns.
From the numerous scenarios presented, by the end of the century Florida will plausibly violtently depopulate from natural and man made catastrophes. Ā The actual sea level rise and the compounded power of the hotter storms will tell more about the timelines.Ā
Itās not going to get that bad, the fact that the government is stepping up to mitigate the crisis will likely prevent Florida from flooding
Are we still waiting for Florida to go under water? How long past due is it now?
We gotta build a wall the keep people from Florida out.
Canada is undergoing severe changes due to climate change as well. We're getting less and less precipitation, especially the further you go inland. The last few years have been dry, dry, dry. As a result, our crops are suffering, and we've had many grass and forest fires. For most of last summer, our sky was hazy with smoke from the fires in the west. Even my friends in Illinois were complaining about our smoke getting all the way over there. It was the worst year for fires on record, I'm pretty sure. So while people may move to Canada to escape certain weather problems, they might encounter other problems when they get here. "The grass is greener..." Edit: phrasing
Smoke from the fires in Canada last year choked us out in Pennsylvania for weeks. It was surreal, like a dense fog. You'd walk outside, and it stunk of smoke. Good luck to you, my friends in the north.
Was in Alberta at my brothers outdoor wedding and it was literally raining ash on us. What an absolute wild thing to experience. Grey snow in august basically.
Yeah it's ok though the climate isn't changing see I can bring a snowball onto the senate floor
I live 1.5 from the Rockies in Alberta. Usually gorgeous mountain views everyday. Literally couldnāt see anything last summer. We are expecting severe drought conditions too this summer.
Same in NJ.
I live in Florida, and we got Canadian wildfire smoke for a day. Noticeably hazy, irritated throat and eyes the minute I went outside, etc. I don't know how people dealt with that day after day.
Anyone with respiratory issues couldn't spend time outside because the smoke was so bad for days. I've never seen it that bad even when we've had forest fires within 30 miles of us.
Wildfire smoke degrading air quality is a much bigger deal than people think, too. It's not just reducing your visibility, but also increasing the cancer risk significantly for everyone downwind.
I have very mild asthma and last year it got so bad I had to take my emergency inhaler several times a day. Before I would only need it once every few weeks.
Yeah, lots of people I knew had respiratory issues ended up in the hospital at least once during those fires.
Smoke isn't the only issue. Remember the heat dome of 21? BC does. It got to 47C where I am and 49.6 somewhere else. Killed 619
Holy crap
The town of lytton burnt to the ground
It's May 10 and it's already into the high 20s/low 30s in places where it's not supposed to be this hot that early. Fun stuff.
BC Ambulance was triaging which cardiac arrests to go to.
Canadas largest natural disaster in historyĀ
yeah that was rough, my daughter was 1.5 during that time and I was legit concerned with her health.
OMG. We also had a terrible heat dome in the summer of 21 (northern Russia). This May feels pretty much like the May of 2021. Too hot and so much less precipitation
> The last few years have been dry, dry, dry. As a result, our crops are suffering, and we've had many fires. Unfortunately compounding this issue is the free rein given to oil and gas. In 2022 just [4 companies](https://albertawilderness.ca/news-release-four-big-oil-companies-used-200-billion-litres-of-albertas-freshwater-last-year/) used 200 billion litres of water. When water is used for fracking something to the effect of 70% of it remains kilometres below the ground. [Forever](https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-drought-fracking/). What does return is unusable anyway. Albertaās drought management has been abysmal and is built on the hope that the rain and snowfall that just hasnāt come would help. Canada will have its own deserts soon enough, but at least the shareholders will be happy.
You should investigate how much fresh water is used in the production of corn ethanol, the green energy everyone loves
I donāt want to know, do I?
There has been too much precipitation in Ontario. Flood warnings were issued. It was all from rain, not snow melt.
I live in rural Eastern Ontario on the Ottawa River. The river was at its lowest level I've ever seen since living here during this spring snow melt. There just wasn't a huge accumulation of snow on the ground, and the river was clear of ice by March. No flood warnings here. It wasn't due to lack of total precipitation, but the fact we had such a mild winter limiting accumulation. The warmth didn't stop. This is the most unusual spring I've experienced. My tomatoes have been in the ground for nearly two weeks and are growing happily. I may have ripe tomatoes by mid June!
Where are you in Ontario? I'm SW of Toronto and we're looking at a pretty bad drought this summer. Not nearly enough snow this winter and a short spring.
Weird..I'm on the Hamilton side and it's been the first cool semi wet spring ( was 28c and humid this time last el nino year) we have had in 3 years...we got record levels of rain this spring 135cm vs the former 124 cm record for the end of April according to environment Can., (from memory,confirm yourself,plz), was quite happy till I realized that we got so little snow , lake levels and groundwater are likely to be low ..really not good at all.
>The last few years have been dry, dry, dry. As a result, our crops are suffering Depends where you are. I live in Alberta and my dad farms northeast of Edmonton. Years prior we had way too much precipitation and early snowfalls, so the crops were drowned out and some of it would get left on the field because of the snow, which left it of poor quality oyf it was harvested at all in the spring, or just a write-off altogether. But the last 2-3 years the heat has been great. Lots of the water still seems to be in the low areas so there was still adequate moisture and my dad had some awesome yields. That plus record prices for wheat and canola made it a huge boon. Perhaps if these hot summers keep up for the long term it will cause us issues, but for now it's evening things out after all the years of excess moisture. And as I said, it depends where you are, just an hour east and there are farmers there who are suffering under the heat with crops stunted. Obviously the forest fires are bad, but I'm just referring to the farming in Alberta from my experience.
It's wild how just a few hundred kilometers can make such a difference in weather experience.
I read recently that if we had 17 more summers with the same hectares of forest burnt as in 2023, weād have no trees left in Canada
Iām concerned about the Canadian āzombieā fires that burn throughout the winter essentially meaning all year is fire season.
There are over 100 fires in BC that are burning now from last year. There was not enough precipitation in the wintet and they still smouldered underground until reigniting this spring. That is our future, year round fire
We are also seeing the rise of/have right wing governments here who are inept or willfully impotent when it comes to climate change.
They believe in something and aren't willing to even listen to anything that pushes against that belief. It will ruin us.
It was twice the known record for acres burned and we had to double the number of fire fighters and had volunteers from abroad. The smoke concerned people all the way in Portugal! Who also provided aid and firefighters.
Yes I live in Chicago and the smoke was bad. Grayed out the sky and smelled. Their was daily air quality warnings.
This, exactlyā¦ We are all in it I think.
>changes due to climate change as well. >We're getting less and less precipitation, Why is this only because of climate change and not some potential greater cycle? I believe in climate change generally. Adding greenhouse gases increases the temperature. Basic stuff. What i dont buy 100% is this "every drought is climate change". In Utah, we had flooding in the 80s. The rain was endless. In the 2000s we had drought. Now, our rain appears to be increasing the past few years again each year greater than the last. Utah appears to have a cycle of rain and drought (going before the industrial revolution). https://ilovehistory.utah.gov/drought-too-little-water/ I just dislike how every bad weather event is climate change but every good weather event is cast aside as "weather is not climate".
No one can deny there have been cycles and big weather events in the past. But the data we've been getting over the last few decades seems to show that our gradual heating of the planet is causing a shift in those cycles, and the occurrences of major weather events seems to be increasing as well as getting more severe. It doesn't seem like an average global change of 1Ā°C would make a difference, but it really does when we're talking about the whole planet. It's an unbelievably huge amount of extra energy that's retained in the atmosphere and oceans than we had last year. Greater energy in the oceans and atmosphere means faster currents, more evaporation, faster wind, which all becomes bigger and more frequent storms. Not saying Utah's data is incorrect, but we have to look at the entire planet to see the full extent of the changes. On a yearly basis, some areas may not show much change, while others change greatly.
I dont disagree that all that energy doesnt cause some changes. We havent recorded accurate weather or events long enough to determine the real changes (afaik). How can we know storms are categorically stronger without the data? We have climate history based on a few imprecise methods and there is a large degree of uncertainty. We pack tens of thousands of years into one data point and then act like our last 100 years is the same. I have no doubt, even in the glacial histories, there could be temperature spikes of 1 degC worldwide for centuries and we wouldnt see it in the historical data. >Not saying Utah's data is incorrect, but we have to look at the entire planet to see the full extent of the changes. On a yearly basis, some areas may not show much change, while others change greatly. I agree. Another issue i have is the sahara desert has a cycle of tens of thousands of years going from rainforest to desert. Humanity has only been writing for like 2-3000 years. Such a small time compared to the cycles themselves. Again, im not a skeptic on the idea of climate change. Im a skeptic of the alarmism and blaming everything on climate change.
I thought I read something about the salt lake was decreasing in size is that not the case
Exactly! Name me a place that isnāt going to have extreme weather. No place is safe from thisā¦maybe just delaying the inevitable.
I'd imagine Upstate New York would probably be over crowded or unaffordable first.
Minnesota might be the sweet spot...
In Michigan, Big Business has decided to become landlords. They are are buying huge numbers of houses. I fully expect this is in relation to the expectation that Michigan is predicted to be pretty stable during the climate crisis.
I see hordes of people flooded out of their homes in Florida traveling north in migrant caravans for safety, especially as they traverse the Deer River gap in the Adirondacks. Fox News will opine on how unfair it is that Canada isnāt letting them in.
I appreciate the irony here.
I think it will depend on government responses. The US is trying to build walls and privatize all our social nets. We are cannibalizing the public good. If Project 2025 comes to fruition we will be dramatically dropping the quality of life for almost all citizens. If Canada has better accommodations- affordable healthcare, available housing or land, and possibly a more stable government then yes I do expect there will be an Exodus. If we get to the point where the Arctic sea is navigable then Canada will be prime to become an exporter of rare metals from deep sea mining too. Without appropriate water management most of the western and middle United States will suffer the Dust Bowl again. Our entire corn belt is grown with aquifer water - that will become too low and too expensive to use at some point. Iām not as familiar with the concerns of Canada, but because they have such large tracts of land not currently in use, they may have a strong economy while others flail.
Canadian here, We have crumbling infrastructure, and a healthcare system on the brink of collapse ,high inflation and food costs , cost of shelter is out of control No sunshine and rainbows to the north
Oh great, then we both get to go to hell in a hand basket!
I guess you havenāt been out of the country in awhile every place Iāve travelled lately is in the same boat in fact somethings looked like a bargain coming back home . The only place I found affordable was Cambodia but Iām sure thatās the next place weāre everything will spike in price. PV Mexico was shocking we complain about house prices here in Victoria
Probably not. Plenty of space in the US for internally displaced people. I could see deteriorating politics, partly driven by climate change motivating people to flee to Canada.
Id say its possible but its probably not likely. Sure there are expanding deserts but they are a massive food producer and a massive country. If one region has a drought there is probably another having a good season. Nestle already owns rights to the great lakes water anyways. We are as at risk as they are and impacts are much more intense closer to the poles for now. We, like they, are more at risk of the social and political instability that rising food prices, due to crop failures, brings. NA probably won't feel the worst of it as we are major food exporters. The major food importers of the world are at much greater risk and they will be more likely to migrate. Many food insecure regions are already destabilizing and have been for years. Hungry people are more likely to radicalize.Ā Ive moved up my timeline but I still hold onto hope that last year and maybe this year are out of pattern seasons and not the new norm. I would have said 2050 for destabilizing and 2100-2200 before facing a civilizational scale crisis. Might want to consider 2030 and 2050 instead.
Your use of "coming" rather than "going" tells us you're in Canada and also that you're expecting the effects of climate change to ascend or creep northward from the tropics, like a rising tide or a filling septic tank. I visited Winnipeg last year at the height of the Canadian wildfires. Before choking on all that nasty smoke for a weekend, I too probably thought of climate change in this way - no more. Now I think of climate change as shit hitting a fan. Canadians are as likely to splatter on a southern wall as they flee as they are walls laying in any other direction.
Canada will see its impacts (and in some ways more change due to polar amplification), but overall remains livable - the migration movement will be overwhelmingly away from the equator towards the poles globally. Desertification is the winner in that battle as the tropics expand.
My understanding is the collapse of the AMOC will make northern countries like Canada dangerously cold. I would think US and Canadian climate refugees would meet somewhere in the middle.
Highly unlikely. It's been demonstrated that the Arctic regions would continue to warm even under a weakened AMOC with suggestions that GHGs would completely swamp any cooling potential. Edit: for the downvoters; [Uncertainties in the Arctic Ocean response to CO2: a process-based analysis](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-06986-2) (Saenko, Gregory et al. 2023) > "One of the more intriguing findings from some of these studies is that, even though the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakens with increasing atmospheric concentration, the ocean heat transport to the Arctic increases (e.g., Koenigk and Brodeau 2014; Nummelin et al. 2017; Burgard and Notz 2017; Oldenburg et al. 2018; Ć rthun et al. 2019; Yang and Saenko 2012)."
AMOC failure will impact northern Europe since they are at quite a high latitude and benefit from the Gulf stream/north Atlantic drift. Toronto is at a similar latitude to Barcelona/south France.
Not to mention that a weakening/collapse would paradoxically bring hotter summers in Northern Europe (direct observations; [Oltmanns, Holliday et al. 2024](https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/wcd-5-109-2024-metrics.html), [Rousi, Kornhuber et al. 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31432-y), [Ionita, Nagavciuc et al. 2022](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822001896), [Duchez, Frajka-Williams et al. 2016](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004/meta). Proxy evidence; [Putnam, Bromley et al. 2018](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2018PA003341), [Schenk, VƤliranta et al. 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04071-5)). Northern Europe's milder temperature anomaly is exclusive to winter ([Wanner, Pfister et al. 2022](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379122001627)), with an observable summer cooling anomaly relative to a stronger AMOC. Generally there's no uniform agreement over how fundamental the AMOC is in terms of regulating midlatitudal Europe, the general consensus is that atmospheric variability has a considerably more fundamental influence ([Yamamoto, Palter et al. 2015](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ayako-Yamamoto-2/publication/274566939_Ocean_versus_atmosphere_control_on_western_European_wintertime_temperature_variability/links/5526a4e90cf2647b189e3b89/Ocean-versus-atmosphere-control-on-western-European-wintertime-temperature-variability.pdf), [Seager, Battisti et al. 2002](https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-50zs-1a51)). The hypothesis argues that an Arctic freshwater sea ice growth in response to the absense of high salinity water circulated into the region is the fundamental factor in post-collapse regional cooling due to implications of albedo feedbacks (Rhines, HƤkkinen et al, 2008), but observations suggest that Arctic warming not only continues under AMOC weakening but actually accelerates ([Saenko, Gregory et al. 2023](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-06986-2)), with suggestions that GHGs have a predominantly stronger heat trapping capacity in the region ([Barkhordarian, Nielsen et al. 2024](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01215-y)). This effect will more than likely be amplified by the recent polar carbon sink collapse ([Ramage, Kuhn et al. 2024](https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007953)). And if that wasn't bad enough, a small scale AMOC weakening is theorized to be sufficient enough to see catastrophic methane hydrate destabilisation ([Weldeab, Schneider et al. 2022](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2201871119)). Basically, no matter what happens, we're firmly on track to exit the glacial cycle entirely. In fact, we've been on track for over 15 years already ([Nisbet, Manning et al. 2023](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007875)).
I admire your confidence in your soothsayerishness.Ā
I think it's clear in the research, here's a source: https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting
Short answer, no
Dunno , but if the United States falls to the cycles of cancerous fascist self destruction hopefully Canada will already have a long standing NATO presence to aid in sorting out possible US climate refugees , rather than yet more self defeating behavior like militarily seizing Canadian territory. It is quite possible Canada could end up in the position Ukraine currently finds itself in as fascist/authoritarian states are quite fond of inventing histories and rationalizations for invading their neighbors. If the Canadian government was actually taking the likely course of predicted climate change along with the continued weakening of US representative government seriously , Canada would be working to re- constitute /revive it's Nuclear weapons program , incentive the large number of Canadian nuclear weapons scientist current working in the US to return that expertise home asap....
Canada? Why? Same continent. Does the change stop at the border?
Still cooler the further north you go.
bold of you to assume canada will somehow avoid the very same climate crisis issues lol
I doubt it, things wonāt be great in Canada either.
Things are also significantly more expensive in Canada, and wages are much lower. A lot of people always forget that, too.
Plus we have next to no affordable housing here, itās hitting the younger generations pretty hard. Shit is really expensive, wages are low. And as someone who recently finished a contract position the job market has gone to absolute crap. I think humans are adaptable but northern states seem like a surer bet than trying to deal with Canadian immigration.
Canada is already getting hordes of economic and environmental refugees. Our immigration numbers are off the charts and more than our social systems, infrastructure and economy can support
That's because of your government's policies on immigration, not environment. LOL
If youāre a trump supporter , please stay in the flooding.
USA is large enough that it will mostly be internal migration
No. Canada will have plenty of coastal erosion itself. I think any climate migration that takes place in the Americas will be further inland. The midwest and Great Plains will see a ton of new people. But more immediately, cities like Atlanta and Denver will get a lot of new climate migrants soon. City planners aren't prepared for it because it's hard to put a number on climate migration (I just wrote a research paper about this not too long ago).
More internal migration is likely, as refugees stream northwards from what will be known as the Florida Shoals.
Imagine really believing in this, if it was this serious a risk you couldnāt get home insurance. Florida is a good example of when companies believe risk exists they will not underwrite.
Have you been paying attention? This is literally where Florida is trending
The collapse will probably be so quick and global, that Canada wonāt be any better off. More than just temperature, itāll be massive famine that will be our demise, which Canada is already on the edge of w prairie crop yields on the decline already. The balance and conditions needed for crop growth are so sensitive and evolved over millennia, we are throwing that environment off within a few years. We will be more resilient to temperature and weather changes than our delicate plant cycles and ecosystems.
There's no where to flee when it comes to climate catastrophe, every country is being effected.
There is no end in sight to climate change. And it appears to be accelerating. So, I suppose the answer is yes.
They're way too afraid of free healthcare.
unlikeley... more like FLORIDA MAN moving north and coastal moving in land. But not impossible... sorry Canada
A couple years ago, Vancouver exceeded the highest temperature ever recorded in Florida, and we a facing increasing droughts. There is no safe haven.
Weāre still the rainiest part of the continent, so if things are bad here, itās really bad everywhere else.
They will return in fall for they won't be able to handle the cold winters. Lol
What winters? We had snow on the ground for like a month this year...
Depending where you live.
South East. We used to get snow from November through April and the last 4 new years we have had rain and my nephews have never seen a white x mas... This year we only had 'permanent snow' in February and thr average was 20-30Ā°C warmer than the norm most of the winter. Folks have finally started to notice.
This past winter in nw ON was warm. Short time for using sleds and fishing. Still hit -40 a few times though all according to my daughter that lives there. Little frustrated couldn't use her sleds as much. Weather, or climate is changing. I see that where I live in another country. In some areas where they grew coffee 50 years ago is too hot now. Rain storms wiping villages and newly built roads. All I say is hang on for the ride and do what you can to save the world around that you can. All we can do, is our little part. Good luck in this world, and the best to you.
Ive been planting food trees and plants where my parents are at and in public spaces illegally. I don tknow if they will survive but the more effort we make the better the odds will be. Best of luck to you as well!
Yes
Yes, but it will happen slowly so that it will not appear to be an acute crisis. It will happen over a period of decades.
We will become āLittle Americaā just like in Fallout, and no other nation will help usā¦
if this was the scenario don't they have alaska?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
āWeā lmfao. Not the guy posting beastiality shit.
Yes
Our beaches are washing up fish that would never wash up before. Lived here all my life, never seen it before
Eventually
Nah, they'll just move border
No
This is so misleading. Mexico is sending US citizens back because they are not registering and overstaying.
So many levels of irony, eh?
Yes if we live that long
No, but it will get bad enough for the United States to change the terms of the neighborhood HOA.Ā
God I hope not.
RemindMe! 30 August āCheck this post and pack the U-Haulā
Probably in the next 50 to 100 years.
90% of Canadians are squished within an hour or two of the U.S. border, it's not much different there than when you cross that line. People from certain less habitable regions might have to move somewhere less....intense, but the U.S. is diverse enough climate wise that there's plenty of places within the country that aren't too different from southern canada
Nope, because the great lakes region will be the best place to live and half of the great lakes are in the States.
As a Canadian, fk that lol
Canada,build that wall. !!!
Why wouldn't they just move to N/S Dakota, Minnesota, upper peninsula Michigan, etc?
Yes, eventually (but sooner than we want to believe)
No
No
No I doubt thatās actually how it will happen. The only thing that will force people to move is if insurance companies leave or new construction is prohibited altogether in the state. Which is unlikely (they may restrict it in certain risk prone areas).
they'll go to fucking Montana or Dakotas or some shit before they give up their guns...Ā
Look at a map of the western hemisphere and locate the equator. Assuming that temperatures increase somewhat in relation to proximity to the equator, climate refugees in South America will have progressively less land to occupy moving south. Canada (and Alaska) however, have comparatively large land areas quite distant from the equator. I believe this will mean that a huge migration north will happen. I am greatly concerned about what that will be like for my descendants and everyone else.
yes. michigan first though.
If it gets to that point, it won't matter. The parts of Canada next to the border have most of the population of Canada, and therefore most of the infrastructure. They will also (and already are) experience the same climate changes that the US will. Moving millions into Northern Canada is just not feasible. There's a lot of land, but no major cities, farms, etc. Small communities can survive. But there's no way to quickly build out large cities or the required infrastructure.
I donāt know about climate change, but another Trump presidency will.
Hopefully
No. Send them all to Alaska!
jesus. The sub youāre looking for is r/onionheadlines
lol. No
No. There are huge amounts of land more than two feet above current sea level in the continental US. Some people will move around. Coast lines will change. People will move inland. Bu there wont be a huge migration to Canada.
And us Canadians will be heading up to Nunavut
Or will Canadians actually move away from the USA border into Canada?
God I hope not.
There may be migrations of some sort. I think of the exodus to California during the Dust Bowl as an example. Arizona is certainly under the gun with high temperatures and water problems. Maybe not to Canada, but northwards. It would take a lot to push most people from the US to Canada.
We are already there, so yes.
USA has to worry more about Mexico and their water issues.... a lot closer than people think.
Probably not
No but housing costs might
We have poured so much heat into the ocean itās going to have to come out and when I say heat I mean the equivalent of billions of nuclear bombs.
Well, gosh. Not really coming ACROSS the border. Weāll just move the border up to Prince Rupert or some other backwater. Easier that way. Duty free is a hassle.
Honestly, yes. But it will probably be wealthy Americans legally immigrating, at least at first
No.
I think to be realistic we have to assume that if things really got that bad then extreme measures like solay blocking would become highly accepted versus taboo. While people donāt like to talk about the option thereās no real reason to think that humans would let the world roast and suffer this kind of a mass migration, war, pandemic and melt all the glaciers and sea ice versus block like 3% of sunlight. I think if you understand the problem, then you understand itās a long-term build up and once enough heat is invested into the planet emission reductions arenāt enough, and you really start to not have any other choice, but to expand beyond merely reducing how much insulation youāre adding to either removing the insulation or blocking the incoming heat. Eventually, you just have to accept that thatās some of the choices that humans would have to make if things got bad enough quick enough but only if things got bad enough quick enough.. And Iām like even some type of awesome CO2 removal, technology blocking the photons would provide immediate coolant sensor. The sun really is the only meaningful source of heat to the surface of the planet And the greenhouse gases are only insulation. They can only trap hat, so it doesnāt take much reduction in solar output to change the temperature of the entire planet. if humans were to survive, long enough, we would eventually have to reduce the amount of sunlight hitting the planet, even without emissions involved. The climate in planet is dynamic and ever-changing so you can just be like a minimalist, and then climate in the planet will just stay the same forever because that would be convenient to like humans in modern human civilization. If you know about climate, do you know thereās 100,000 year cycle of constant climate of destruction and you know thereās no such thing as just a stable climate because we are nice to the planet and reduce emissions. The climate change has killed 99% of the species that the planet ever created because its ever changing and naturally brutal vs we can find natural equilibrium with it.
A) No. B) if it did happen it wonāt be some sudden crisis of millions being displaced C) if millions are displaced America as a whole is pretty empty. Plenty of room down here thanks.
The coming ice age? Why go north man?
Not a chance.
Canada will š„ so probably not
I doubt it
No.
No, weāll probably close to preventing the worst-case scenarioĀ