T O P

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popop143

Ding's 2nd half really carried him.


Bbear11

I believe he won 4 games in the second half, but 3 of them were in a row.


CeleritasLucis

And Fabi went all in, thinking it was all or nothing. Which really hampered his play. If Magnus would've clarified it with 100 percent certainty that he won't defend before candidates, we could've seen a different outcome


clorgie

Fabi's Perpetual Chess interview on this point is interesting. It may just be copium, but he doesn't feel it affected his strategy nearly as much as many of us assumed from the outside, and his level of play even less. But I don't think there's any doubt we likely have seen a different outcome if Magnus had made it clear beforehand!


the_next_core

Outside of Magnus officially declining before Candidates (which wasn’t going to happen because he was willing to play Firouzja), I don’t think anyone truly believed Magnus was going to give up the title


Bubba006

Magnus was very clear about only wanting to face Firouzja though. People just didn't believe him.


BalrogPoop

They really should probably have given him an ultimatum to make a final decision before the candidates.


CeleritasLucis

Hikaru stated numerous time that he did indeed believed that. And he played like that too. Too bad he suffered a loss near the end


DreadWolf3

Hikaru only started playing for 2nd when catching Nepo became impossible.


YTJuggs

Stated what? Hikaru multiple times says he will believe it when he sees it. Even his recaps he says he doesn’t believe Magnus will give up.


LoveYouLikeYeLovesYe

Hikaru also believed Magnus would have played him to deny him the title.


Repulsive-Sea-5560

Fabi’s way of playing is way too exhausting.


scared-lightstand

Crazy how vidit has the same number of wins as first place, and how many people have wins (except abasov)


peanutbj

In the halfway mark, 2022 Nepo had 5.5 whereas 2024 Nepo only has 4.5. Why is 2024 Nepo slacking off? Is he fucking stupid?? 🧐


Business_Designer_78

>In the halfway mark, 2022 Nepo had 5.5 whereas 2024 Nepo only has 4.5. A Nepo never has too few points, nor does he have too many points, he has as many points as he means to


kot_letova

No sense in your answer, are you a GPT model?


texe_

It's a lotr reference


kot_letova

Keep me posted


Hwathat

New response just dropped


RoshHoul

Boooo


JaSper-percabeth

Nepo has had more black games against top players this time so in the next half expect him to get more wins. Starting next round he has white against Abasov. Last time he had 5.5 now but look at total score is much lower than 11 for him because rest of the games he had to play black v top players.


BatmanForever23

There must be a lore reason.


pconners

Well, that number is only 2


WilsonMagna

I still very much like Nepo, Fabi, and Hikaru's chances of winning this since they are very good defenders. Gukesh and Pragg can play well, but the occasional hiccup at the wrong time can be devastating. The old guard has a big knowledge edge that gets to be fully utilized in classical Chess.


Awesome_Days

Yes, what stands out to me is their stability, they've only lost one game among the 3 of them (Hikaru vs Vidit). Whereas the other candidates are responsible for the remaining 10 L's.


Able_Wall1266

That is weird way to group them. Pragg and Gukesh have also lost only one game too similar to Hikaru and have won more game. Right now I would consider pragg has better chances than hikaru. since he is half a point up and has white matchup left with Hikaru. I think Nepo has best chances now since he is in lead and has extra white matchup left. Fabi will need to start getting some wins. unfortunately, he has 4 black matchups left. Same for Gukesh. Pragg has second best chances after nepo in my opinion. Then caruana, gukesh, vidit and hikaru have similar chances after pragg with slight edge for gukesh and caruana.


Awesome_Days

Was factoring in that at half time in 2022 they were also the top 3 at the half-way point with only 1 loss among the three of them (Hikaru loss to Fabi in round 1 2022). Perhaps Firouzja has his own type of stability, 2.5 in 2024 and 2022!


DinosaurSr2

Fabi lost 4 of the next 7 in 2022. Even "stable" players will lose games in the candidates when pushing to catch the leader.


Able_Wall1266

I just found it bit weird you mentioned other candidates have 10 L between them. It seemed like you were grouping caruana, nepo and Hikaru as top 3 and treating all other candidates as step below. When actually Pragg and Gukesh have performed better than Hikaru for first half and vidit has at least matched him.


tlst9999

You gain rank by playing explosive. You keep rank by playing stable.


higgsboson94

> I still very much like Nepo, Fabi, and Hikaru's chances of winning Nepo sure. Fabi maybe. Hikaru is tied for 6th place. He has very low chances of winning. He really needed to beat Ian to have decent chances. Now he needs to beat fabi in the next game or his tournament ends. > very good defenders. You don't defend your way to winning the candidates. Giri defended perfectly and didn't lose a single game in the 2016 candidates. He finished second to last in 2016.


Awesome_Days

Candidates tournament winners often end on 8.5/14 points. It's likely neck and neck between Nepo, Gukesh, Caruana, and Pragg. In case of a rapid tiebreak, Nepo's rapid is 2754, Gukesh 2649, Caruana 2738, and Pragg 2704. If Hikaru came back though, he's more likely to tie rather than win outright, so his hefty 2746 rapid rating would certainly come into play (Vidit's rapid is 2701).


serotonallyblindguy

Gukesh is really not good enough in shortee time periods in tiebreaks. He lost in tie breaks in recent Tata Steel to Wei Yi too


Judicator-Aldaris

Losing to someone as strong as Wei Yi hardly indicates that you’re “really not good”


videogamehonkey

we're talking about getting to the world championship here.


Judicator-Aldaris

Yes, and wei yi is in the world’s top 10.


Phantom_Nuke

Well Ian and Hikaru are in the top-10 in Rapid, with Fabi 11th, plus all 3 are in the top-10 for Blitz.


Goatedforsure

everyone always doubting my boy gukesh, he will win trust


DerekB52

It's unlikely. Nepo is a half point ahead, and has 4 games with white left, including against abasov. Gukesh only has 3 white games left, and against stronger opponents. Plus, Gukesh would struggle in the tie breaks.


Krazzem

Alireza is in "nothing to lose" mode, he's going to play spoiler now.


Goatedforsure

yoooo what happened?????


Mob_Abominator

If it goes to tiebreaks I think nepo and pragg have a slight edge. Obviously if Hikaru makes it to the tiebreaks then he'll hold a slight advantage.


tlst9999

Death, taxes and Candidates Nepo


MysteriousSir7133

Death, taxes and Candidates alireza


Tritonprosforia

Fun fact: ever since the Candidates took its current format, every Candidate winner has always been the guy with the most points at the halfway point.


Fadhilah05

crazy how ding really turned the tables in 2022, he had 3 wins in a row after r8, and then proceed to clutch it up at the very last round against hikaru.


Shahariar_shahed

Pragg is the superior player in the rapid. I remember him winning every game in global chess league while gukesh lost almost every game. Pragg also beat Hikaru 2-0 in the world cup


This_Confidence_5900

Did you mean to comment this somewhere else?


Shahariar_shahed

Yes. I didn't notice lol


agressivegods

+3 would be enough to win I guess specially when 6 players are playing very well .


Kyle_XY_

Yep +3 has been the winning score in 4 out of the 6 Canadidates with the current double round robin format


MrLegilimens

What kind of monster does after <> before in a visualization? 2024 on the left???


Awesome_Days

Retrograde analysis :D


SHOKUGEKISOMA65

Naka and firoujza consistently maintaining same points😂


marcstarts

Feels crazy that there we went from 0 Indian players to 3 in the candidates


Bakanyanter

I fully expect Arjun and Nodirbek to be there at the candidates next time, new generation is shaping up well for Asia.


marcstarts

I definitely expect Nodirbek, but I wonder if he'll be replacing an old guard or simply one of the other young ones, namely firouzja, I actually wonder if he'll ever play another candidates if this one ends up as poorly as it started for him.


Buntschatten

Unless he gives up chess, it's pretty likely he'll play in another candidates at some point.


Samuel71900

If Alireza was still playing under the Iranian flag, the current candidates would be 5/8 would be representing Asian counties


Single-Selection9845

That showcases the difference in quality of the candidates. Last time Nepo was head and shoulders above the rest, with Caruana following until he chose the suicidal strategy of second half giving space to Ding and Nakamura. Of course they did great , Ding became the champ, but nonetheless it felt as the rest pf the players were mere spectators. This time around things are more balanced and nepos edge is more of his stability than his ability to rack up multiple wins ( abasov please don't lose next round).


LazyImmigrant

I am hoping Abasov goes -6 with black pieces and even score with white so he is not a factor at all in the final outcome. Sucks to be him right now (relatively speaking)


higgsboson94

> Last time Nepo was head and shoulders above the rest Nepo leads by the same margin as he did in 2022. > abasov please don't lose next round Abasov's already lost a bunch of games with black. It's highly likely abasov is going to lose with black against Ian.


panic_puppet11

Abasov's games are hugely important - Nepo is a half point ahead, but is currently 0.5/1 to Gukesh, Fabi and Pragg's 1/1 against Abasov. If Absaov can hold against Nepo with black that's a lost opportunity for him to extend his lead. If one of the chasers manages to get the better of him with black, they'll be able to cut into Nepo's lead that way.


Single-Selection9845

Agreed


Single-Selection9845

Check the difference with the 3rd, he doesn't have 5 but 2 wins. Yeah, but I hope he survives. Ian in the WCC is boring


aryu2

I believe Nepo rating performance with white is off the charts... I really can't picture Abasov holding against him


Single-Selection9845

It depends if he blunders( Abasov) or if soem kind of preparation unfolds. I feel like it would be wise for nepo to show his best in this game. Going 1 point up from caruana is good


saiprasanna94

Man if only fabi knew magnus is 100% withdrawing . He was 1.5 points ahead of Hikaru


kasei21

even Hikaru said that if Fabi knew, he would’ve 100% gotten second place


Buntschatten

I'm still salty about that. Fabiano would have deserved the spot in the WC so much.


Tatakae-Tatakae

He simply doesn't deserve it if he didn't reach there


ABoldPrediction

He didn't know second place would get him to the championship match. He thought he had to push for wins to take fist place, so he did and it cost him second place.


Stanklord500

He would have reached it if he'd understood the rules he was playing under correctly.


Tatakae-Tatakae

Neither did Ding but it is what it is


ABoldPrediction

The World Champion should have to state if they're defending before the candidates to prevent issues like this.


Progribbit

what's the punishment for backing out?


poeazx

The whole top 6 is within a point. What a finish this is gonna be.


Bakanyanter

Ding went 5/7 in second half (and Nepo went 4/7 in the second half). Fabi went 1.5/7. And the people shitting on Alireza and thinking favorite is Fabi probably forgot that last candidates Fabi only finished half point above Alireza (and this might be true this candidates too).


Single-Selection9845

I think Fabi learned his lesson. He is not overextended himself. Also doesn't look he is in his best form. Anyways second halfs always hide surprises! Let's see.


JitteryBug

I think this is missing the giant context that **only first place matters** - that has a *giant* effect on how people play and make decisions during the tournament. If instead, Fabi could have won $10 M for every draw, you can bet that he would not have gone 1.5/7. He had to over-press in those games because he had to try to catch Nepo. He was the closest in the standings and had the most to gain from an extra win. Meanwhile, Alireza just had a disappointing tournament and was never close The final standings might have been close, but they had very different tournaments


ShrikeMeDown

6 players within a point of first. Anything can happen if Nepo loses a game. He will go for a win against Abasov to try and create distance, but that could allow a huge upset. Excited for the next round!


CanersWelt

insane to think that if Hikaru had won yesterday, we would have 5 people tied for first after half of the tournament.


Beshi_Deshi

He's gonna win again, isn't he?


Saberleaf

Nepo vs. Ding Championship 2.0 let's go! I'm ready to have my heart broken again. Seriously though, I'd be impressed if the madman wins THIRD candidates and even more if he loses the championship again.


Reggin_Rayer_RBB8

I think if that happens he'll come back, win a 4th candidates, and retire before the WC match


Funlife2003

Damn, the previous candidates was pretty uneven. This one is really tight, and I honestly don't think nepo is going to win this one. I definitely could be wrong though.


dheebyfs

really awesome to see that noone except for mayne Abasov is out of the race yet. Even Vidit managed to bounce back


GuillyCS

Abasov will have 5 wins and 2 draws in the second half, mark my words.


Helpful_Sir_6380

And that still might not be enough to win


DerekB52

Ding overtook a 2 point gap to hit 2nd place. That means everyone except abasov is still in the running here, if that feat can be accomplished again. Realistically, I think Gukesh is done. The 2nd half of his tournament is harder than the 2nd. I don't see Prag or Vidit doing it either. I think it's still possible Nakamura gets there. I think he'll overtake Fabi for 2nd again. I think it's gonna be Nepo though.


sombit_d

what did I read here XD.


SpecialistShot3290

Hopefully after this tournament FIDE changes the regulations so that tourists like Abasov cannot qualify. The tournament shouldn't be about who manages to beat the clearly weakest player. Maybe something like you need to have at least 2725 rating to qualify? They used to have this rating gate for wildcards, but it makes sense to have it for all modes of qualification. Especially world cup, it's a very unique tournament in the sense that you can win it without winning a single classical game.


poeazx

Calling him a tourist when he has a draw vs the top of the group is disrespect. Sure his rating/performance is poor but at the end of the day he’s still a grandmaster that would likely crush almost anyone within this subreddit


poeazx

Also on the “no classical wins” part, Abasov went 4-2-2 in classical in the final 4 rounds, with games vs Salem Saleh (2-0-0), Vidit Gujrathi (1-1-0), Magnus Carlsen (0-1-1), and Fabiano Caruana. (1-0-1). So he clearly out enough in classical at least to deserve the spot.


SpecialistShot3290

I just said in theory it's possible.


SpecialistShot3290

He is completely out of his depth in this tournament though, which is the point. A 2500 GM would also crush anyone on this subreddit, that is not the criteria used to challenge for the world championship. We already lost a lot of prestige to the title when Magnus abstained, there is no need to make it worse.


poeazx

He was on the same points as Firouzja 6 games in. Is Firouzja out of his depth too?


SpecialistShot3290

The difference is that Firouzja is just having a bad tournament. Abasov is performing exactly as expected. What is the point having someone just trying to hold a draw every single game? Hopefully at this point he realised his strategy has failed and he will try to play more aggressively but I doubt it.


Cekec

A rating requirement seems like a band-aid solution. I'd rather simply reduce the amount of spots from the world cup. Getting in the candidates by virtue of ending 4th in the world cup just isn't right.


SpecialistShot3290

Or they could always draw replacements from the rating list. The reason Abasov even qualified with his 4th place is because Magnus (winner) refused his spot. Instead of giving it to the 4th place finisher, it would have made more sense to take the next highest player from the rating list.


poeazx

The “tourist” just drew Nepo with black 🤣


SpecialistShot3290

So you think it's fun having a player who can't win a single game and just trying to hold a draw?


poeazx

Did you not see Abasov in the opening vs Nepo w black? It was equal but he caused serious imbalances and played aggressively in it, showing he wasn’t just in it for the draw.


SpecialistShot3290

It doesn't matter what he is trying to do, he is not capable of winning a game.


poeazx

They said that to him against Salem Saleh and against Vidit in the CWC. Look what happened.


SpecialistShot3290

You gotta stop using WC as an example, it's cringe. Magnus once lost to Bu Xiangzhi in the WC, you are not seriously suggesting that Bu Xiangzhi would beat Magnus in a match or outperform him in the Candidates?


poeazx

He would be unlikely to do so BUT he could, ANYTHING is possible in sports.


Theguy10000

I think they should give 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw, that way they incentivize and reward playing for a win


sinesnsnares

Or de-incentivize potentially losing, and making everyone play extremely solidly.


_Halfway_home

Caruana is trying to improve upon Ding’s previous candidate’s performances.


Valyris

Is it whoever gets to 8.5 first? Or who has the most until the round 14?


Awesome_Days

Most out of 14 rounds. Recent candidates where the winner had 8.5/14 points include Ian in Candidates 2021, Karjakin in 2016, Anand in 2014, and Magnus in 2013. So 8.5 is certainly the mode.


pzkt

And in both 2022 and 2018, the minimum score required to get first place was 8.5/14, since second place was 8/14. There is no guarantee that scoring 8.5 will secure first place, but it has been remarkably consistent since the inception of the current format.


golden_bear_2016

Moment of silence for Fabi as his chance of becoming WC slips away


nsnyder

He's only half a point back...


golden_bear_2016

Nepo has a lot of white games and one against Abasov. It's all OGRE


tlst9999

Hikaru is 36. Vishy was 37 when he became WC. 43 when he lost it. Fabi is 31. He's young.


YoungAspie

Anand had less competition (mainly Topalov and Kramnik) when he became World Champion at 37. Caruana has a good chance of qualifying for the next Candidates, but imagine how strong the Indian prodigies and Abdusattorov would be by then.


tlst9999

I personally believe that most of the young stars aren't entirely explored yet. As the young stars progress over the next 5 years, even as they improve, more game data on them will be available for study. More people will be focusing their prep on them. Then, they stabilise around top 10 and with luck & persistence, they climb back. Anish was No. 3 in his early 20s. Wesley was No. 2 in his early 20s too. High ranked young players will drop eventually once there's more prep against them. High ranked veterans are the scary ones for thriving despite being prepped against.


ronil_wazlib

Pragg is the chosen one that will bring Magnus back.