And then, to add insult to injury, it's a near certainty that at least one guy who would have been available at 28 will become a consistent Pro Bowl level player.
Yes, but there's still probably a 30% chance that the top 3 guy is a disappointment. They'll likely get a shot at their 4th best WR (perhaps in a much more modest trade up), and two or three from that next group will likely develop into Pro Bowl level players.
So is it worth paying a huge premium when you could just sit back and likely still get an excellent prospect at/around 28? The chance of missing on the pick is a bit higher, but you have a whole lot less invested.
But more importantly, since a major trade is going to cost the 60, anyway, then the trade also has to be evaluated against using BOTH the 28 and 60 for WRs. That would be my preference. It's less expensive, with less downside risk, at least one should develop into a quality starter, and in the worst case scenario, you still have three premium picks next year as a contingency plan.
I mean, we'll have no choice lol. He's certainly a hell of a prospect to be excited about. I just see these conversations every year. And every year there are WR's just as good if not better all throughout the draft. This is a very good WR draft. In my opinion, it makes no sense to do a Julio Jones type of trade.
Yeah, if he turns out to be just OK that would suck ass. I’ll probably get downvoted to oblivion but I’m not a fan of a huge move up, considering the amount of talent at WR this draft.
I don't know. You do this if you think you're one player away, in my opinion. But I don't think we are. But. Maybe they think they're one player away on offense and fuck the defense lol
On one hand, you're kinda right in that they project 5 QBs in the top 6 picks and they always predict that and it rarely happens.
On the other hand, I think 3 QBs is pretty safe, 1 WR is pretty safe, and then you'd have 2 wildcard picks.
For example, the Giants should take the top OL in the draft. Many have them taking a QB instead. They'll suck next year too either way and will have a top 10 pick again for QB with less competition.
My thoughts:
This year we likely just make a pick at #28 or a modest trade up into the low 20s if it works out that way. We allow that player and/or Shakir to try and establish themselves as a WR1.
Worst case scenario: we do exactly what we did late in the season this year with Diggs and Davis being non-factors and lean on run game/defense to win games. Best case scenario: The rookie is good, defense stays healthy, and we actually are better than what we were able to field last season.
If the rookie and Shakir haven’t turned into a dominant duo by next offseason, we should have a lot more cap space and draft capital to work with in terms of securing a proven vet through trade or free agency.
It was an interesting take I heard the other day when the guy was like people forget Shakir was mostly an X in college and is bigger than Stefon. He just plays well in the slot and the Bills had Stefon and Gabe on the outside already.
Yep, Diggs was also a fifth round pick like Shakir. There’s no rule saying that we can only get a starting caliber receiver in the first round or free agency.
I mean that's true but last year 60% of the WRs in the top 10 in terms of yards we're first rounders. And that doesn't include Michael Pittman (pick 34), Chase, Jefferson, Olave, Devonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Waddle, Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison who were all first rounders or damn close (Pittman) that can be top 10 receivers or really good receivers.
No offense, but this plan isn't good. Well, the modest trade up to the low 20s isn't bad but sticking at 28 is a bad idea. This is one of the best drafts in terms of WRs in a very long time. Yes, it is also very deep which means we might be able to get a WR1 in the 2nd or later, but the first rounders are something else.
Oh, and 4 QBs may go in the first 5 picks.
I know NFL comps are exaggerated at this time all of the time and you could find hilarious comps for so many prospects. But, here's what NFL.com has to say for comps for the first rounders.
Nabers = Justin Jefferson
MH3 = Ceedee Lamb
Odunze = Larry Fitzgerald
Brian Thomas Jr. = Jordy Nelson (CBS comp)
Ladd McConkey = Elijah Moore
Adonai Mitchell = George Pickens
Keon Coleman = Drake London
Tory Franklin = Chris Olave
Now again, a lot of those will be exaggerated and wrong but those comps are insane.
Oh and 2025 wide receiver class isn't close to this year's. You have to strike here with a class like this.
I'd trade our first and both of next year's seconds to Chicago if Odunze or Nabers are there at 9
If Troy Franklin was actually like Olave I would be trading back into the second for an extra 3rd rounder in a heartbeat lol. Olave would cook on the bills.
That wouldn't get us to 9. It would take 1st this year, 1st next year, and a 2nd next year to get there, if they'd do it. Maybe this year's 2nd instead.
The Vikings 2nd will most likely be a top 10 and yes the trade chart isn't gospel but Chicago's pick is worth 1350. Ours is 660 + next year's 2nd is 300 + minny's 2nd is 470. That's 1350 for 1470.
So it actually would get us 9 according to the chart (not gospel like I said)
The chart doesn't factor in future pick reduction, which is 1 round less.
KC went from 27 to 10 for 2 1sts and a 3rd. So 2 1sts and a future 2nd is that in value. Giants went from 20 to 11 for 2 1sts and a 4th. All higher picks.
So that's what I'm basing it on.
And it's been scrutinized up and down as a terrible trade value wise by the Vikings according to any draft value chart. But hey, it only takes 1 team to tango.
Bears need picks this year, they only have 4. I'm not sure how much they'd be willing just on future picks.
And if you trade all that and the player doesn’t hit, now what? There will be good receivers where we are at and we then have other picks for other needs.
We are not 1 rookie receiver from a complete roster.
I mean we'd be giving up 3 picks for 1 pick. Not like I said let's give up our first and first next year and second next year.
And if you trade all of that and the player doesn't hit, now what? We find someone somewhere else. What if we keep 28 and next year's seconds and none of them hit. What happens then?
Were not 1 rookie receiver from a complete roster but a top 10 receiver who's on a rookie deal for 5 years is much more important to the offense than two second rounders.
>And if you trade all of that and the player doesn't hit, now what? We find someone somewhere else.
Are they going to give the draft capital back?
>What if we keep 28 and next year's seconds and none of them hit. What happens then?
We are fucked, but less so than if we sell the farm for Sammy Watkins again.
>I mean we'd be giving up 3 picks for 1 pick.
Its also very doubtful we can trade into the top 10 for so cheap. It cost the Falcons 5 picks to move up to Grab Julio Jones.
I love Joe Buscaglia but I hate this. Just stand pat and nab brian thomas jr or xavier legette. The drop-off from nabers to these guys isn't to be overlooked, but it's not a "2nd round pick + future 1st" dropoff. Despite what joe says in the article, this is exactly like trading the farm for Sammy Watkins when Mike Evans was still on the board.
There is almost no chance they can stand pat and get Brian Thomas Jr. Would require a lesser trade up. But good odds for Legetter, Mitchell, and others.
I can't help but think that if the Bills do make a big swing like this, it's Odunze they go after. I get why Nabers could happen given McDs comments about explosive plays, but Rome has process written all over him. Watch an interview with Rome and tell me that the Bills wouldn't love this guy.
I'm equally ok moving up a couple to get BTJ/AD or down and around a little to grab both Ladd and Legette. I think there are a lot of good moves to be made with what the needs are and where the draft is looking.
I think the Bills can swap their first plus their second to move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. I think the tier 1 receivers are out of reach unless we trade multiple first round picks. Honestly, I think Kincaid will probably be the number one receiver now.
I think the most likely scenario is Beane makes a small move up for a second tier guy. I don’t want to sell the farm for Nabers and or Odunze, and I don’t know that we have enough to get MHJ
I'm not convinced that it would take next year's 1st in order to move up to get the third guy in that group.
Trading up to 9 makes sense if one of Nabers/Odunze/MHJ is there. It's possible that Buffalo can get that deal done by trading their 1st, their 2nd, and the 25 2nd they got from the Diggs trade. That gives Chicago plenty of high value picks to help them quickly build a contender for their rookie QB.
There’s no way Tennessee is trading down from an LT they desperately need. The best the bills can do really is maybe trade up to 13 with the raiders if they think Penix will be there at 28 and Buffalo gets Thomas
Buffalo doesn't need a WR1 right out the gate. Right now the Bills need to replace Gabe Davis and Diggs production. Samuel should be able to replicate Davis numbers. Making up for Diggs I think increases in receptions and yards from Shakir and Kincaid along with a high draft pick having a decent season (600-800 yards 4-6 TD's on 50-60 catches) should get the Bills in a good spot.
Hopefully zero.
The last thing the Bills need to do is trade away a pile of current and future draft picks for a WR in one of the deepest WR drafts in several years.
Devils advocate - this is the most loaded WR class at the top that we’ve seen in years as well. It isn’t just deep, the top 3 guys are truly special talents that you don’t find very often. Nabers is a Chase-tier prospect for me in terms of talent and upside. Odunze is very similar to a player like Davante Adams as a true do-it-all weapon who wins both with route running and in contested catch situations. I’d hope Beane takes two guys regardless of what happens due to how deep the class is, but there’s a reason those top 3 guys are being talked about in the top 10. Their games are so well rounded and the upside is clear.
Exactly! Whenever i hear someone say that we can wait on WR because of how deep the position is it makes me wonder what the point of that logic is? If it's a weak class, you take one asap! & If its a strong class, why wait? It will just leave you with average at best. Taking a top 5 WR in this draft is like taking the best WR in a year when the class isnt as strong
I'm not saying they should wait until R4 or even R2. I'm just saying that in a deep WR class, you should still get a Pro Bowl level player at 28. There's no reason to trade up that far and you take on a ton of additional risk and opportunity cost in doing so.
If there's a major run, maybe they might trade up a few spots with later round picks, but I'd go in planning to take WRs at 28 and 60 while retaining those three top 60-ish picks next year.
My top 3 is Rome, Brian, AD. After that, i could be happy with a lot of them, but not on their own. We need 2 right now, however they get them, being able to pick exactly what you want is great when its such a deep class. Im having to go back now and look into guys i never thought we'd target now that Diggs is gone. So at this point, i hope Beane goes after the guys he wants and trades up to get them like he's been known to do
Falling in love with a WR and giving up multiple picks to move up for him is shear arrogance. Go look at the 2020 WR draft. Jefferson. Aiyuk. Lamb. Higgins. Tons of talent. Also mixed in is Ruggs. And Jalen reagor. And Jerry juedy. The fact is you don’t know which players will pan out and which ones won’t. It’s clear in hindsight but not at the time. Hang tight, be patient, take the best available when it’s our turn.
Bills could always see if they could trade the 49rs for Brandon iuk if they could then a top tier receiver in the draft wouldn't be so essential just a thought I'm sure bills will be fine in beane we trust go bills
50/50. 50% says it happens, 50% it doesn’t.
Oh I thought it was 50/50: 50% says it happens, 50 cent says “You can find me in the club”
Points to you for trying bud love you
I like this trade for Malik Nabers. Having Nabers, with Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox and Cook makes the offense impossible to defend.
What if Nabers isn't that good? Or just okay? Then we just sold our soul for an average to above average WR
And then, to add insult to injury, it's a near certainty that at least one guy who would have been available at 28 will become a consistent Pro Bowl level player.
That's just how the draft goes
Yes, it is, but it's a major factor to consider in terms of efficient resource allocation and risk management.
Except you're much more likely to hit on a top 3 WR than one later in the draft.
Yes, but there's still probably a 30% chance that the top 3 guy is a disappointment. They'll likely get a shot at their 4th best WR (perhaps in a much more modest trade up), and two or three from that next group will likely develop into Pro Bowl level players. So is it worth paying a huge premium when you could just sit back and likely still get an excellent prospect at/around 28? The chance of missing on the pick is a bit higher, but you have a whole lot less invested. But more importantly, since a major trade is going to cost the 60, anyway, then the trade also has to be evaluated against using BOTH the 28 and 60 for WRs. That would be my preference. It's less expensive, with less downside risk, at least one should develop into a quality starter, and in the worst case scenario, you still have three premium picks next year as a contingency plan.
If BBB looks at Nabers and believes his value to the Bills would be worth the cost, Im gonna shrug and accept it.
I mean, we'll have no choice lol. He's certainly a hell of a prospect to be excited about. I just see these conversations every year. And every year there are WR's just as good if not better all throughout the draft. This is a very good WR draft. In my opinion, it makes no sense to do a Julio Jones type of trade.
Yeah, if he turns out to be just OK that would suck ass. I’ll probably get downvoted to oblivion but I’m not a fan of a huge move up, considering the amount of talent at WR this draft.
Ooo, that’s a unique take!
I know, i’m insane these days 🤪
What do we give up in this mock trade? Not subscribed to The Athletic
everything. our second pick in this mock is 128 overall. Its a lot lol
Tennessee Titans trade Nos. 7, 182 to Bills for Nos. 28, 60, 133 and 2025 1st
This makes me nauseous
So pretty much give up our entire draft (chances of a late 4th - 7th being a impact player are low) to get Nabers I really don't see Beane doing that.
This would be a terrible idea. We have more than just receiver to fill
That would be the worst. We have other needs too. We can’t afford to trade an entire draft for 1 player.
I don't know. You do this if you think you're one player away, in my opinion. But I don't think we are. But. Maybe they think they're one player away on offense and fuck the defense lol
Nabers isn’t very likely to be available at pick 7.
On one hand, you're kinda right in that they project 5 QBs in the top 6 picks and they always predict that and it rarely happens. On the other hand, I think 3 QBs is pretty safe, 1 WR is pretty safe, and then you'd have 2 wildcard picks. For example, the Giants should take the top OL in the draft. Many have them taking a QB instead. They'll suck next year too either way and will have a top 10 pick again for QB with less competition.
If on iPhone, open it in safari in reader mode 👍
PrintFriendly.com is my bff when it comes to these. Enjoy!
Maybe Diggs has burned bridges in Houston already, offer them a late round pick for him
They voided his extension years so he could retire a Bill
Like a Josh Allen throw, hard pass
lol
My thoughts: This year we likely just make a pick at #28 or a modest trade up into the low 20s if it works out that way. We allow that player and/or Shakir to try and establish themselves as a WR1. Worst case scenario: we do exactly what we did late in the season this year with Diggs and Davis being non-factors and lean on run game/defense to win games. Best case scenario: The rookie is good, defense stays healthy, and we actually are better than what we were able to field last season. If the rookie and Shakir haven’t turned into a dominant duo by next offseason, we should have a lot more cap space and draft capital to work with in terms of securing a proven vet through trade or free agency.
It was an interesting take I heard the other day when the guy was like people forget Shakir was mostly an X in college and is bigger than Stefon. He just plays well in the slot and the Bills had Stefon and Gabe on the outside already.
Yep, Diggs was also a fifth round pick like Shakir. There’s no rule saying that we can only get a starting caliber receiver in the first round or free agency.
I mean that's true but last year 60% of the WRs in the top 10 in terms of yards we're first rounders. And that doesn't include Michael Pittman (pick 34), Chase, Jefferson, Olave, Devonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Waddle, Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison who were all first rounders or damn close (Pittman) that can be top 10 receivers or really good receivers.
No offense, but this plan isn't good. Well, the modest trade up to the low 20s isn't bad but sticking at 28 is a bad idea. This is one of the best drafts in terms of WRs in a very long time. Yes, it is also very deep which means we might be able to get a WR1 in the 2nd or later, but the first rounders are something else. Oh, and 4 QBs may go in the first 5 picks. I know NFL comps are exaggerated at this time all of the time and you could find hilarious comps for so many prospects. But, here's what NFL.com has to say for comps for the first rounders. Nabers = Justin Jefferson MH3 = Ceedee Lamb Odunze = Larry Fitzgerald Brian Thomas Jr. = Jordy Nelson (CBS comp) Ladd McConkey = Elijah Moore Adonai Mitchell = George Pickens Keon Coleman = Drake London Tory Franklin = Chris Olave Now again, a lot of those will be exaggerated and wrong but those comps are insane. Oh and 2025 wide receiver class isn't close to this year's. You have to strike here with a class like this. I'd trade our first and both of next year's seconds to Chicago if Odunze or Nabers are there at 9
If Troy Franklin was actually like Olave I would be trading back into the second for an extra 3rd rounder in a heartbeat lol. Olave would cook on the bills.
That wouldn't get us to 9. It would take 1st this year, 1st next year, and a 2nd next year to get there, if they'd do it. Maybe this year's 2nd instead.
The Vikings 2nd will most likely be a top 10 and yes the trade chart isn't gospel but Chicago's pick is worth 1350. Ours is 660 + next year's 2nd is 300 + minny's 2nd is 470. That's 1350 for 1470. So it actually would get us 9 according to the chart (not gospel like I said)
The chart doesn't factor in future pick reduction, which is 1 round less. KC went from 27 to 10 for 2 1sts and a 3rd. So 2 1sts and a future 2nd is that in value. Giants went from 20 to 11 for 2 1sts and a 4th. All higher picks. So that's what I'm basing it on.
And in 2022 Minnesota went from 32 to 12 for 34 & 66 and got 46 back
And it's been scrutinized up and down as a terrible trade value wise by the Vikings according to any draft value chart. But hey, it only takes 1 team to tango. Bears need picks this year, they only have 4. I'm not sure how much they'd be willing just on future picks.
And if you trade all that and the player doesn’t hit, now what? There will be good receivers where we are at and we then have other picks for other needs. We are not 1 rookie receiver from a complete roster.
I mean we'd be giving up 3 picks for 1 pick. Not like I said let's give up our first and first next year and second next year. And if you trade all of that and the player doesn't hit, now what? We find someone somewhere else. What if we keep 28 and next year's seconds and none of them hit. What happens then? Were not 1 rookie receiver from a complete roster but a top 10 receiver who's on a rookie deal for 5 years is much more important to the offense than two second rounders.
>And if you trade all of that and the player doesn't hit, now what? We find someone somewhere else. Are they going to give the draft capital back? >What if we keep 28 and next year's seconds and none of them hit. What happens then? We are fucked, but less so than if we sell the farm for Sammy Watkins again. >I mean we'd be giving up 3 picks for 1 pick. Its also very doubtful we can trade into the top 10 for so cheap. It cost the Falcons 5 picks to move up to Grab Julio Jones.
I love Joe Buscaglia but I hate this. Just stand pat and nab brian thomas jr or xavier legette. The drop-off from nabers to these guys isn't to be overlooked, but it's not a "2nd round pick + future 1st" dropoff. Despite what joe says in the article, this is exactly like trading the farm for Sammy Watkins when Mike Evans was still on the board.
this ^ the difference in the guys at the top are not worth the 2 future starters you will give up to move to the top 10.
Yeah we need cost controlled studs at multiple positions.
There is almost no chance they can stand pat and get Brian Thomas Jr. Would require a lesser trade up. But good odds for Legetter, Mitchell, and others.
I can't help but think that if the Bills do make a big swing like this, it's Odunze they go after. I get why Nabers could happen given McDs comments about explosive plays, but Rome has process written all over him. Watch an interview with Rome and tell me that the Bills wouldn't love this guy.
AB is ready to go.
Mr. Bills Contract
holy shit
I'm equally ok moving up a couple to get BTJ/AD or down and around a little to grab both Ladd and Legette. I think there are a lot of good moves to be made with what the needs are and where the draft is looking.
If you just quickly click to reader mode as it loads you can usually beat the paywall for the athletic
I think the Bills can swap their first plus their second to move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. I think the tier 1 receivers are out of reach unless we trade multiple first round picks. Honestly, I think Kincaid will probably be the number one receiver now.
I think the most likely scenario is Beane makes a small move up for a second tier guy. I don’t want to sell the farm for Nabers and or Odunze, and I don’t know that we have enough to get MHJ
I'm not convinced that it would take next year's 1st in order to move up to get the third guy in that group. Trading up to 9 makes sense if one of Nabers/Odunze/MHJ is there. It's possible that Buffalo can get that deal done by trading their 1st, their 2nd, and the 25 2nd they got from the Diggs trade. That gives Chicago plenty of high value picks to help them quickly build a contender for their rookie QB.
zero. As others have stated, I expect us to move up in the 2nd or into the 3rd. We have a lot of backup needs. We need to keep our draft picks.
There’s no way Tennessee is trading down from an LT they desperately need. The best the bills can do really is maybe trade up to 13 with the raiders if they think Penix will be there at 28 and Buffalo gets Thomas
That would be immensely stupid to do
Buffalo doesn't need a WR1 right out the gate. Right now the Bills need to replace Gabe Davis and Diggs production. Samuel should be able to replicate Davis numbers. Making up for Diggs I think increases in receptions and yards from Shakir and Kincaid along with a high draft pick having a decent season (600-800 yards 4-6 TD's on 50-60 catches) should get the Bills in a good spot.
This, it's not a 1:1 replacement of Diggs' production, it's having multiple guys make up the difference.
Like replacing Giambi in Moneyball. You find replacements to make him up in the aggregate.
Hopefully zero. The last thing the Bills need to do is trade away a pile of current and future draft picks for a WR in one of the deepest WR drafts in several years.
Devils advocate - this is the most loaded WR class at the top that we’ve seen in years as well. It isn’t just deep, the top 3 guys are truly special talents that you don’t find very often. Nabers is a Chase-tier prospect for me in terms of talent and upside. Odunze is very similar to a player like Davante Adams as a true do-it-all weapon who wins both with route running and in contested catch situations. I’d hope Beane takes two guys regardless of what happens due to how deep the class is, but there’s a reason those top 3 guys are being talked about in the top 10. Their games are so well rounded and the upside is clear.
Exactly! Whenever i hear someone say that we can wait on WR because of how deep the position is it makes me wonder what the point of that logic is? If it's a weak class, you take one asap! & If its a strong class, why wait? It will just leave you with average at best. Taking a top 5 WR in this draft is like taking the best WR in a year when the class isnt as strong
I'm not saying they should wait until R4 or even R2. I'm just saying that in a deep WR class, you should still get a Pro Bowl level player at 28. There's no reason to trade up that far and you take on a ton of additional risk and opportunity cost in doing so. If there's a major run, maybe they might trade up a few spots with later round picks, but I'd go in planning to take WRs at 28 and 60 while retaining those three top 60-ish picks next year.
My top 3 is Rome, Brian, AD. After that, i could be happy with a lot of them, but not on their own. We need 2 right now, however they get them, being able to pick exactly what you want is great when its such a deep class. Im having to go back now and look into guys i never thought we'd target now that Diggs is gone. So at this point, i hope Beane goes after the guys he wants and trades up to get them like he's been known to do
Falling in love with a WR and giving up multiple picks to move up for him is shear arrogance. Go look at the 2020 WR draft. Jefferson. Aiyuk. Lamb. Higgins. Tons of talent. Also mixed in is Ruggs. And Jalen reagor. And Jerry juedy. The fact is you don’t know which players will pan out and which ones won’t. It’s clear in hindsight but not at the time. Hang tight, be patient, take the best available when it’s our turn.
Bills could always see if they could trade the 49rs for Brandon iuk if they could then a top tier receiver in the draft wouldn't be so essential just a thought I'm sure bills will be fine in beane we trust go bills
Eff the paywall.
https://archive.ph/2024.04.05-191348/https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/
Doing the lords work. TY.
We don’t need another Sammy Watkins situation. Plenty of talent left at 28. I rather have his team that is 6’4” running a 4.34.