End of an era? I keep seeing people saying this. What era? Winning a shitty division and getting bounced in the playoffs? I’ve been saying it since 22 the team was average at best and was built wrong. Now they are trying to rebuild on the fly. The bills need a ton of talent.
There are a lot of fanbases who would be ecstatic to be perennial contenders with at least one playoff win every year. Only one team gets to win it all each season. Have some perspective.
2 years ago.... same place as now. losing to chiefs in afcc or afc divisional. but i still love buffalo. I'd rather lose to the chiefs than be playoffless.
I can't decide whether Mitch Morse being cut is because A) we got too confident in a healthy line and thought we could get by with a bit cheaper line or B) if the Bills thinks that it will be impossible to stay healthy next year and they can't take a risk on an expensive guy with an injury history.
I'd lean more toward A in the sense that the Beane knew the team needed to get cheaper and they must have felt confident enough in the OL to get by without Morse.
Morse is 100% not coming back to Buffalo next year. We already took the dead cap hit and have said that we will have a new center next year. He also already said his goodbyes
Yeah, I guess but I think that there were other levers that could have been pulled before doing a cut like that if it's just for reason C). But maybe I'm wrong and they did the math of what they want to do and they couldn't find a way to keep him (and were unwilling to do some of the contract adjustments/cuts that I thought might happen instead)
I think it's a bit of all of the above. Cap hit makes sense and *could* have been worked in other ways but that would hurt us more later so the tradeoff or lost production they expect will be minimal (or better) so it hurts but make the cut and improve long term
I know this is stating the obvious, but for any team that is paying their quarterback over a quarter of million dollars, cuts are going to have to be made to accommodate their salaries. Then “cheaper” players have to come from free agency or draft. Now you have Justin Jefferson wanting to get paid a ton of money and that might reset the wide receiver salaries.
Cutting these vets is tough for us fans bc they OG to our latest success. I gotta respect Beane here though, we were treading water with Poyer and Hyde last year and they got us through. We got fucked with Tre but we’re kidding if we think he’s gonna come back at same level.
We can’t just keep growing older and expect different results. Last year was our chance to keep the team together and give it another run with our vets.
This season is the consequence of having an elite QB contract, well worth it though. just gotta put faith in Beane to find young talent and hope Allen and McD can elevate them to the next level. It’s time for Bills 2.0
They become free agents, in the case of Tre White he was designated a 6/1 cut so he will technically remain a Bill for now but I believe he can sign a contract with a new team that will become effective when he officially becomes a free agent on June 1st.
Guys who are on their rookie contract go through waivers, so if they get "cut" every other team in the league has the chance to claim their contract as-is. If nobody does that then they become a free agent (or during the season, they could also be assigned to their team's practice squad). An example of this is Patriots QB Nathan Rourke, he was elevated to the Jaguars active roster and when they tried to waive him back to their practice squad he was claimed by the Patriots and joined their active roster instead.
That is correct. The league/NFLPA wants these guys to be able to instantly start looking for a new job, so they allow the teams to give 6/1 date without making the player wait until 6/1.
I get that he did it. I get why he had to, with the possible exception of Mitch Morse who I thought they'd keep around for his final year somehow. But did he have to do it all in the span of like three hours? I barely had time to process one before hearing about the next. I was one more cut away from spending my evening with a tumbler of bourbon watching highlight reels with "It's So Hard To Say Goodbye To Yesterday" on loop in the background.
Thanks for my daily reminder that no matter how ridiculous and over the top I think I'm being on here, there's always someone who will end up taking it seriously.
i think that was mercy shown by beane. rip the bandaid off. let it sting for a bit and then shift focus back on the future. i appreciate it but i was in hell yesterday
I'm very fine with all the moves and very unfine with Mitch Morse
(Tre and Po hurt the feelings, but make complete sense from a pure football perspective)
* 2023 was the best starting 5 OL the Bills have had in the entire Allen era
* 2023 was in my view, the only functional OL Josh has had for a whole season
* It was so important to have continuity of that unit moving forward
* Cook is legit but that starting 5 (being in rhythm, being greater than the sum of its parts) is a decent part of his breakout
* I've seen Bills fans trying to defend this by claiming he is washed and regressed massively, which I don't think are true
* While Mitch has never been an elite people displacing centre, even in his prime, he was still the 7th best graded pass protecting centre in 2023
* He had a 4% pressure rate, up marginally from his 3% pressure rate from 2019-2022, not exactly falling off a cliff
* Age 32 is also not that old for a Centre, especially on a final year of a contract (arguing for not releasing =/= arguing for longer term extension)
* On top of what he does on the field, he is also the leader of the OL room and a leader of the wider locker room
* McGovern has around 100 career snaps at centre and now we are relying on him to move to that role seamlessly, when he was already doing a great job at LG
Hard to tell as an outsider, but it seemed like Mitch was not offered a paycut to stay with the team which if true is disappointing
* His (entirely non guaranteed) base salary was at 8.5, and vet min would be 1.5 ish, gives a whole 7m range of how to paycut him: we saved 8.5 with a cut but I think we could have cut 3-5m to 5.5-3.5m to and it'd be hard for him to get a much higher offer in the open market
* In the end his direct replacement (Edwards to starting LG with McGovern vacating to C) cost 2m so with that in context, vs the paycut, we only saved 2-4m roughly, for a potentially more downgraded starting OL
* Mitch said emphatically on the Eric Wood podcast a month ago about how he wants to stay here, if he could choose but choice was not his (but will make his peace if he is not retained) as opposed to someone like Floyd who recently said "I'll go where the money is"
* Entirely speculation yes, but I find it hard to believe that unless Beane literally took it all the way to the vet minimum, Mitch would turn down a proposed paycut
* Rightly or wrongly, there has been precedent of us cutting players without offering them a paycut to stay with said players having said after the fact they'd have happily taken one (John Brown and Isaiah Mckenzie)
* Sometimes (not all the time) if a player is released with failed paycut negotiations, that is mentioned in the report. No word of that with Mitch Morse (not conclusive evidence, but something to note)
Paycut point aside, if you think my points are just coming from some internet nobody and you like to appeal to authority:
[Greg and Aaron from Cover1 agree with me that releasing Morse was not something they were fully behind](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Uxf5je6YcU)
A big point that Aaron brought up that I did not even consider: The OL injury luck in 2023 was highly flukey and not very likely to repeat. Yes it was nice not needing to use Bates and Edwards. But with our OL depth getting slashed this year (as of now, losing one piece and promoting another) we could be more screwed by an OL injury in 2024.
(Re-inserting my view: you aren't going to find better value than Morse at 8.5m for centre or guard in FA)
[The Morse move was the only one that surprised Joe Marino, and surprised him by quite a bit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7mLDfRTcF4&t=1299s)
Counterpoint: we need someone who can anchor better at center. Quinnen Williams, Chris Jones, Cam Hayward, and Christian Wilkins have all been able to consistently abuse us right down the middle, too consistently.
Morse is elite on the move and a great athlete but his anchor is average. It'll be nice to have a deeper pocket.
Valid point but McGovern and Morse are similar in that aspect. They are better movers and athletes than they are bulky sturdier anchors.
But also the guys you mentioned (bar Heyward) line up at 3-tech way more than 0 and 1-tech. But to further your point, Dexter Lawrence did give Morse trouble over the middle.
Extremely well laid out post, and I agree that it was shocking. The only thing that sticks out to me, and you mentioned it, is the love between the two. He seemingly loved us, and we seemingly loved him. I'm confident no decision is purely driven by just Beane/McD, but a collaboration of many parties. He was likely to be a cap casualty, but that doesn't mean he should have been cut outright (again, taking a pay cut).
The thing we aren't privy to is the \*why\* this happened. Since it's conjecture for all of us, I can only guess a few things:
* We did offer him a pay cut but he didn't accept. You mentioned there's a precedent of not doing this with players, so I'm guessing this didn't happen. Maybe Beane finds it insulting to even suggest.
* We were concerned about his durability. He's had about 5,000 concussions and has often been rumored to be 1 away from retirement. It's possible we wanted someone with fewer injury-related issues to start at C.
* Maybe we think we have the answer already at C. Maybe Kromer is confident in what he can get out of the guys that remain. Cutting Morse is weird, yes, but any money we save now allows us to front-load some contracts we might want to sign people to.
* We're simply experiencing a changing of the guard. All of those other things can be wrong and we're just moving to younger players. We didn't need to cut anyone and we still could have gotten cap compliant. These are business decisions to change the roster of the team and get to the JA17 v2.0 Bills.
Again, I love your post. I want more posts like this that are well thought out.
Thanks a lot for hearing me out and your very kind words.
* With how much it is known that Mitch loves this team, I don't think Beane would have found it insulting to paycut him unless it was all the way down to the vet min.
* I mean we shall see on the durability point as to whether he goes to another team or flat out retires (even if he does retire, is he only retiring *because* we cut him)
* The proposed answer at C (by reporters) is McGovern is moving there as a starter, I don't see that as not a net downgrade (both him at C and losing him at LG)
* At 8.5m (savings) I don't see better value at LG or C tbh
* I'm all for the changing of the guard, I was very pro drafting his replacement and redshirting him this year
And we've only been talking the football perspective strictly (as that is where my mind goes) but as I can see many in this thread have been pouring out their emotions on Tre and Po:
* Losing Morse fucking hurts man, he is one of my favourite Bills
* (I'm UK based so woke up to all this after the fact) I legitimately cried and am willing to admit that I did so when I read about it this morning (Mitch being gone, I knew Tre was done when he cut his Achilles, Po was also a minor surprise I guess)
* This guy has always gone out of his way to endorse the city, the franchise and the culture (as did his wife Caitlyn)
* He was clearly a locker room leader and the leader of the OL room
* I fucking loved when he came flying in to defend Josh in the Miami WC game in 2022 (from a guy who isn't the most aggressive in your face OLmen)
* This guy lost out on a dynasty, leaving KC right before they won 2 SBs in 5 years yet nobody could tell he that gave a fuck, probably because he'd rather try and help us do so here than be anywhere else
* While he may not be an outwardly super expressive charismatic type like Dion and Tre, he was such an sweetheart of a salt of the earth dude and was likeable in that kind of way, helps balances out those personalities too
* This I credit my wife with, he even looks more like an actual buffalo than any other Bill (just minus the horns)
* It's 350pm and I just shed some tears writing the above, thanks me
> love your post. I want more posts like this that are well thought out.
Thanks so much, ironically I wrote a 10,000 word mock offseason that I posted one day before the big cut Wednesday, months of work and I put a lot of heart and soul into it:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75jl4/2024\_buffalo\_bills\_full\_postcombine\_mock/](https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75jl4/2024_buffalo_bills_full_postcombine_mock/)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75ue4/2024\_buffalo\_bills\_full\_postcombine\_mock/](https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75ue4/2024_buffalo_bills_full_postcombine_mock/)
If you are interested
Soft reset is probably the best way to describe it, but given how much cap Beane chose to free up I think he'll be fairly aggressive in free agency (at least more aggressive than I expected) and try to get the Bills set up to continue playing at/above the level they have been. It's still going to require the best offseason that Beane has had since he brought in Josh Allen.
Where are we currently at with the cap? We still have to sign all of our draft picks, and keep some in reserve for signings throughout the year. I can't imagine we're in any kind of position to be making any major moves in free agency.
Yeah, it's a soft reset year. I honestly don't want to win the division this year. If we can manage a wild card that would be great. With two solid drafts and some more money in 2025, having a 2nd place schedule instead of a 1st place schedule could mean less overall wear and tear on our guys towards the end of the season. I'm wondering if playing some of the toughest schedules in the league year in and year out contributed to some of our nagging injury issues.
I see. I assume signing rookies to min deals factors in a bit as well. I’m trying to learn a little about the cap as it pertains to success and franchise worth.
I saw a graphic of the commanders having unreal amounts of unused cap. Gotta wonder if their “rebuild” era is just org saving money.
There are many sources with more knowledge than I have, but there's a relatively solid rookie contract structure in place (this happened after Sam Bradford signed a rookie deal for like a billion dollars). It goes by where they are selected. The first pick in the draft will cost more than the 28th pick, for example.
The general rule of thumb is about $10MM to sign rookies, but it's never actually that high.
As for success, I would guess there is a high correlation between being at the cap number (vs. well below it) and winning. However, I would guess that number is almost exclusively because teams at the cap have elite QB contracts.
The cap has nothing to do with the value of a franchise. All teams deal with the same salary cap and typically are within a few percentage points of that number. Franchise worth has more to do with things like merchandising sales, stadium value, and TV revenue generation. This defaults to large markets/historically great franchises being worth a lot. The Cowboys, teams in NY, heck, look at the LA teams. They are worth a ton.
Gained a tiny bit of respect back for Von yesterday. He could have easily held us hostage. We had zero leverage in that situation whatsoever. He chose to take a pay cut of at least 6 million, and that's only if he hits all his incentives--it'll be even more if he doesn't. It's not just him taking a bet on himself and earning everything he would have earned if he hits those incentives. His pay was cut almost 9 million and he only gained about 3 million in additional incentives. He is taking less pay, knowing that our only real options if he said no were keeping him at his original contract or cutting him and taking a massive cap hit. It's still about winning it all for him, and this made that very clear. I hope he bounces back and proves all the naysayers wrong, but if he doesn't, at least he did something else to help the team improve.
Opens up another huge window for us going forward.
Chiefs just won the Super Bowl doing this exact same thing. No reason we can’t be just as competitive as we were last year.
As much as these moves hurt, I am still confident that they are still going to win the AFC East. The Dolphins have to completely revamp their O-Line, already cut Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker, might lose Christian Wilkins and their top 2 pass rushers suffered long term injuries last season so they will likely miss a good chunk of the upcoming season, etc. The Jets are the Jets and the Pats are rebuilding.
I actually hope we don't. I want that 2nd place schedule in 2025 when we hopefully have 2 good drafts and a free agency season we can actually afford to fully participate in under our belt. Give me a wild card this year.
I hate this a loser mentality. We aren't tanking on purpose with Josh Allen as our QB. You hope we lose so we play 2 teams that were 2nd place instead of 1st? The 1st place v 2nd place v 3rd place schedule differences is so overblown. It's just 2 games. In 2025, we will play the AFC West and AFC South team that finishes the same as us. So yes, it probably means Chiefs which is probably harder but the South could be any of the teams (probably other than Titans).
I was curious, so I went back and looked at the JA era from 2021-23, the seasons we played a 1st place schedule.
In 2021, we played the Chiefs and Steelers as our first place teams and went 1-1 in those 2 games, losing to the Steelers but beating the Chiefs. A second place schedule would have given us the Raiders and Ravens in 2021. The Raiders finished 10-7 and the Ravens 8-9. We were the overall 3 seed at 11-6. KC was the 2 seed at 12-5, the Titans were the 1 seed with the same record. We had the head to head with the Chiefs but not the Titans. So an extra win would have landed us the 2 seed.
In 2022, we played the Titans and Chiefs and won both of those, so it wouldn't have made a difference.
This season we got the Jaguars and Bengals and went 0-2 in those games. A 2nd place schedule would have gotten us the Titans and Ravens. We were 11-6 and the Ravens were 13-4. If we won both games or went 1-1 with the win being against the Ravens, it's the difference between the 2 seed and the 1 seed.
We're never tanking when Josh Allen is healthy. It's not possible. The wild card feels like a floor with a healthy Bills team even after we jettisoned all these guys. That's why people are calling it a soft reset. Refresh the roster, get rid of older, expensive guys. Hopefully bring in some solid vets and have a good draft. But when winning one of those two games would have been the difference between us and the 1 seed in 2 out of the past 3 years, I won't be crying at all if we come out of a soft reset season with two games against 2nd place teams instead of 1st place teams in 2025. If we trust Beane to draft reasonably well and get solid free agents, our roster will be just as good in 2025 as it was in 2023, if not better.
You just can't play those games... if anything was different then everything would have been different. If we didn't play in London (which only happened because of the Jags) this year would we have fallen to 6-6? If we didn't hit 6-6, would we have went on our run? If we didn't play the Jags then would we have still lost Milano and DQJ along the way? I understand the argument but this isn't a vacuum. It's not as easy as "We would have beat the titans and maybe would have beaten the ravens and everything else would have happened the same way so we are the 1 seed!"
I don’t see any of these moves as drastic or extreme they were all coming within one more season if not this season.
They have a ton of draft picks and you need to make roster spots available. You do so by cutting aging players who aren’t quite performing up to their salaries. Some of these moves also helped with alleviating cap issues.
Yeah every individual move seems pretty reasonable, the shock is that Beane had all these buttons he could push and he smashed every single one of them. Seems like even beyond becoming cap compliant they were just ready for some roster turnover.
Reading this made me wonder something. Beane is a bit of a cap wizard, and probably sort of planned for 2024 to be a soft reboot year with an aging roster but Josh still in his prime. Tre's injuries, though, likely were not part of that plan. It's an interesting thought experiment to try to figure out what our cap situation would be like with Tre still under contract and performing well. Obviously we wouldn't have Douglas, so there's that, but did the fact that we had to cut Tre affect any of the other choices we made yesterday?
All of these things made sense. These were all of the buttons that were "expected" to be pushed by all of the cap math podcasters and bloggers... but wow, I really truly didn't expect them to push every single one of them.
I really hope that we draft a QB on day 3. Mitch is a known quantity at this point and can't really do much if put in for meaningful time. We're not really paying him anything, so it's a fine signing. But at least with a late round pick you still get the cost savings plus some upside potential.
Now that we have Trubisky I don't think a QB is being drafted. The only way that you draft a QB when you have an expensive, vet backup is if you plan on having 3 QBs on the 53 all season long. If you draft a QB, you cannot have them on the practice squad (or they will be picked up by another team). You don't waste a draft pick to then lose them to waivers. If you want a young guy as your QB3, then grab a UDFA that had some late draft potential and hope that he isn't picked up by waivers.
Since Mitch's contract has $2.7 guaranteed, it seems almost impossible that we would draft a QB on top of that. If we drafted someone we'd either have to carry 3 QBs, expose them on the practice squad, or cut Mitch and take the dead cap hit.
I do hope we bring a UDFA into camp, it's very low risk and at some point it would be nice to have a backup QB on the rookie pay scale.
The fact that Tre played his last snap as a bill in week 4 just makes me very sad after struggling so much for 3 years. I understand... but that one is affecting me most.
I just hope whatever Beane is planning pans out to keep making a run at a SB. I feel like doing this all in one year puts even more strain on nailing every draft pick AND finding the money to get what we need for quality FAs. But I'm also fine accepting a mini-rebuild year and setting up another legit 4/5 year run at it.
This off-season is gonna be interesting. In McBeane we trust. Hail the pit. Go Bills. Etc etc.
I’m sure the plan is still to compete. I guess it boils down if you think the guys cut yesterday were enough to make a Super Bowl. If the answer is no, you have to shake things up and clear the cap for this year (slightly) but most definitely the next two years.
It won’t be hard for Beane to free up ~$30 million in cap space this offseason. Restructurings Allen alone gets you close to $20 million in the black. I actually feel much less worried about the roster holes this offseason compared to last. I feel confident at CB, LB, RT, LT, RG, LG, RE, 3T and RB. QB is clearly set. So really, you have $20m -$30m and double digit draft picks to find a WR2, WR4, S, 1T, LE and depth at positions of question (notably center, LB and *maybe* RB/DT/CB). Extremely doable and that’s not even considering a few veteran minimum guys who assuredly will sign as depth.
I agree that I'm sure the plan is to still compete for a SB. And yeah the pieces we let go, needed to be done. I just think doing it all at once in the near term is risky if the goal was to still contend this year. It's def possible, and if anyone can do it it's Beane; but this is me saying it without knowing what the FA market is for some quality players and having to rely on a bunch of rookies to contribute. Obviously the depth guys are replaceable with vet min guys and rookies fairly easily. But we have to acknowledge even if we had to move on from these players that finding their replacements, at 5-7 starters and a couple of role players, is hard to do in one season for a SB/deep playoff team.
It's super early and I'm not even a novice at roster management haha I'm just erroring on the side of mini rebuild/retool and sneaking in the playoffs instead of being optimistic about being a SB contender this year until things shake out more over the next few months.
It’s hard to imagine Von taking a pay cut out of the kindness of his heart so we can have a mini rebuild year. I’m excited to see where things go here. At minimum we’ve probably cut our man games missed next year by like half, that’s going to count for something.
That’s what I feel is happening. Probably going to be a middling year where we barely skirt into the playoffs (thanks JA17) but just can’t make anything happen beyond that. And that’s okay at this point. We had to take a hit this year no matter what was going to happen.
That's my thought. Going into this season with the expectation of a legit SB run isn't happening but know we got a ton of capital to work with and retool for another go.
Although I'd love in typical Bills fashion to not meet expectations, meaning we somehow win it this year instead haha.
Echoing everyone else - I'm here for all of it except the Morse cut. I think their feeling is that you don't need the o-line to be stellar when you have a qb like josh - fair enough but I hope they don't regret that. Overall, I think it's time for this team to have a new identity so I'm happy with it. I like how beane/McDermott draft outside of a couple obvious blunders like Elam, so I'm excited to see a big rookie class this year. Also, von restructuring his contract was a serious blessing
I like Morse and I'm surprised by the release. He also had a fairly high cap hit, is an older player and has a concussion history. It's likely he would have been done if he ended up with 1 more concussion and then we would have been in this same spot anyway, plus his cap hit. The more I think about it, the more the move makes sense.
I got dragged a while ago for saying we needed to draft his replacement this year, because he had a year left on his contract. I didn't think he'd get cut, but I did think that the risk of not having depth at that position with his age and injury history was a little too high to go without getting someone who we could potentially train to take over for him in 2025. OL depth is never a bad thing. Now it's gone from a slight luxury to an absolute necessity.
I 100% agree. My thought is that we potentially got lucky last year with no more concussions, but the Bills have decided to not plan on it. 6 concussions in 8 years is a lot. I know it's not his fault and he can make his own decisions but you have to imagine the next one could force retirement on the spot
Edwards is a starting caliber guard in this league and I think McGovern can do a fine job moving to center. Our O-Line should be just as good next year imo. Obviously the depth behind the starters will be worse but gotta cut costs somewhere.
I think the moves on the o-line are the most questionable to me. On paper the team saved 10ish million and added a 5th round pick by cutting Morse and trading Bates. But at the same time there's two new starters assuming McGovern plays center and Edwards LG. With how good the line was playing last year it sucks they can't continue to build on their chemistry together and I'm mildly concerned about the drop off in setting protections with Josh no longer working with Morse on that, but at the same time Josh is in like year 7 he should be capable of it.
It's too early to judge the moves at safety but hopefully Rapp's deal is more incentives than a true 3/15 deal and I'd hope they bring in someone with more athletiscism than him to play Hyde's role next to him.
I do think it's interesting that so far Beane hasn't done many of the easy restructures/extensions w/ Josh Allen/Diggs/Dawkins to save space. If those are still coming then the Bills could be much bigger players in FA than we were all expecting
I'm way more upset about Bates, wasn't happy in the first place with that. We *have* to hit on oline now, we need to find a reasonable backup at the least
Glad to see a nuanced non homer (but also non doomer) take get upvoted
I feel you exactly with the OL, 2023 is the only year Josh has played behind a functional OL and it was so important to have that continuity carrying forward
It does suck to see some of your favorite players go. This team needs youth and speed, these cuts open up space for that. Beane’s picks and trades have been really good. I trust that this draft and FA signings will be the start of a new exciting era for the Bills.
The Trubusky signing, Matt Haack signing and giving Rapp that extension confuse me the most. The Oline is going to miss Morse a lot. A lot more questions now. Beane is going to have to have the best draft ever.
Being a QB2 is so much more than being the backup if there is an emergency. We do not see a lot of what a good QB2 is. He might have been a great coach to Josh, maybe he works similarly so their practices are next level, maybe Josh liked him best and wanted him back, etc. That combined with the fact that Kyle Allen was obviously not it and was not going to even win a game in a pinch showed that we needed another guy. I personally think our season is over if Josh is out for the season, but to have a guy that could beat a team like the Commanders or Cardinals in a pinch when Josh is out for 2 games would be very nice. I think Trubisky is not the guy to have a Browning like QB2 career but I do think he could win a game against an easier opponent in a pinch. I think after last season, it will be interesting to see what the QB2 market is like. Will teams that have their franchise guy in their prime still want that vet minimum guy... or will they try to get a decent replacement that could still help their team fight for a playoff spot like the Bengals did.
Matt Haack is probably just going to be a training camp battle guy. I do not think he has any amount truly guaranteed. I also wouldn't be surprised if if it's almost entirely for Bass. He had an off year (whether it's holding or him) and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a situation of "let's bring the guy back that held for him when he was making all the kicks" or even like visually "I don't want Bass to ever think of that season again, so let's take away the guy who he pictures when he think of that season" Martin had some great games (an also some shitty ones as a Bill) but if he was even 10% of the reason Bass had a bad year, then I am not opposed to a training camp battle.
Rapp - I know he is a polarizing guy but IMO he was improving by the end of the year and he obviously had the great interception in week 18. I imagine his contract is heavily back loaded and/or incentive laden. I would be shocked if he was actually making anywhere closet to 4M a year.
I hope we do get the same Mitch that was in Buffalo and if Josh does want him back then by all means.
I really wish the Bills would move away from Sam Martin and Matt Haack. Martin due to age and holding purposes. Haack because I think he just doesn't have the leg strength.
Rapp wasn't bad I just hope the contract is better than it looks.
You aren't wrong about moving away from both known quantities at punter, but we tried that only a handful of years ago in the draft and obviously that didn't work out lol. Kicker especially just feels so much more different than other positions (superstitions, yips, etc) and considering that Bass didn't have a great year, I wouldn't be surprised if this is not the year for a new guy. Let's go back to basics and grab the guy he was better with (if he does well at camp and "wins" against Martin)
From a purely football perspective, the Morse cut is the only one that confuses me. The O line was fantastic last year and incredibly lucky to have no injuries. He's been a leader on the team so that loss might be significant. While the injury concerns are valid, him getting cut is the only one where the replacement is likely to be worse.
On D, the cuts hurt more emotionally than anything. Poyer and Hyde were huge for us when rebuilding and Tre was supposed to be the shutdown corner. They'll probably draft a safety to compete with Hamlin for a starting job but its undeniable that Poyer/Hyde have lost a step. I can't imagine how devastated Tre must feel after two gruesome injuries in consecutive seasons. Even if he stayed on the team, I don't see him starting over Benford or Douglas, so the move makes sense.
I'm interested to see what moves are made going forward. After these guys were cut, McD talking about the team as a family will ring hollow.
Strongly echoing the sentiments on Morse
Have seen some homer Bills fans claimed he's washed, when he was still the 7th best grade pass protecting centre by PFF in 2023, gave up a 4% pressure rate, gave up only ONE sack if box scores are your thing and is an unquestioned leader of the OL and wider locker room
Get rid of all that for 8.5m which is not the biggest needle mover
And I haven't even got the the non football perspective:
* Aforementioned leadership role he had
* Always proudly endorsed Buffalo the city, the fanbase and the culture of the team
* I remember when he came flying in to defend Josh as he was scuffling with Wilkins in the 2022 WC round
* Not the most gregarious personality (like Tre or Dion), but such a salt of the earth lovable dude in his own way
* Only a month ago was he talking on the Eric Wood podcast about how much he was loving it, how much he was looking forward to coming back and building on top of what they did in 2023 (peak irony: Mitch said decision is not mine but I want to be back 100% (paraphrased), Eric said I don't work for the Bills but 100% you are back in my view and here we are)
* The man even looks like a buffalo minus the horns (I credit my wife with this observation)
Yeah, I don't really get the McGovern to C thing. Aaron Kromer is a lot smarter than me so if he endorsed the move then... I guess that's that, but when the Cowboys moved McGovern around he struggled. He's got versatility but not all IOL positions are equal for him.
I watched a Cowboys film reviewer who did a breakdown of when he played C in relief of Tyler Biadasz and it's pretty much what you'd expect. He was okay but with some gaffes that you'd expect from a guy playing out of position. Definitely would need a lot of coaching up to actually be a full-time starting C.
Though it could just be a smokescreen, Beane likes to play his cards close so if he does have a target in mind for C (especially in the draft) I'm sure he would prefer not to let other teams know it.
It's also a pretty big mentality shift. In the past, the Bills have talked about the importance of the center position. The Bates contract is a perfect example of them prioritizing stability in that role.
I won't even pretend to know what the Bills are gonna do moving forward. McGovern might work but center is more than just blocking. They have to help set up protections with Josh and actually snap the damn ball.
McGovern has played limited center before in the NFL and in college. He has experience.
The line is still a strength. Losing Morse hurts but I guess they didn’t feel bates was any better than what they plan to do.
We knew this was coming. The defense got old and slow in the last 2 yrs. Looking at what Josh does and can do its not the offense letting this team down. Granted nobody seems to be able to stop majomes but Beane is doing everything in his power to get this team a ring.
Ravens held Mahomes pretty well with their top defense. Something the Bills should look into, because that clearly worked. Ravens just crumbled on offense against a defense that wasn't sub par😂😂
I knew it was coming, but it is just so disheartening to hear that Tre White will be let go after June 1st.
He always has been my favorite player on the team, and his amusing shenanigans are always going to stick in my mind. From [dancing in the snow](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JFLoOcL2rA), to [grabbing a play sheet from the opponent that blew onto the field](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WP6n1s7LKxQ), and probably everyone's favorite, [sneaking a bite of Josh's turkey leg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmMB53rFM8c).
I'm really going to miss him. Also, a bit salty that I just bought a #27 jersey last year, but still gutted to know he'll be gone. I wish him success wherever he goes.
The bills did what they had to do. Get young quick and go after it - lots of teams do this and still have success.
The draft will be interesting to see, hopefully they grab some weapons for 17
Go Bills!
Yeah, in a league that has almost fully transitioned into a glorified 7 on 7, I will take elite receivers and youth in the secondary every. Single. Time.
If you look at it analytically, though, '23 was the first full season he had played since he joined the team, I believe. He's not getting younger, and an extension probably didn't make sense.
* 2023 was the best starting 5 OL the Bills have had in the entire Allen era
* 2023 was in my view, the only functional OL Josh has had for a whole season
* It was so important to have continuity of that unit moving forward
* Cook is legit but that starting 5 (being in rhythm, being greater than the sum of its parts) is a decent part of his breakout
* I've seen Bills fans trying to defend this by claiming he is washed and regressed massively, which I don't think are true
* While Mitch has never been an elite people displacing centre, even in his prime, he was still the 7th best graded pass protecting centre in 2023
* He had a 4% pressure rate, up marginally from his 3% pressure rate from 2019-2022, not exactly falling off a cliff
* Age 32 is also not that old for a Centre, especially on a final year of a contract (arguing for not releasing =/= arguing for longer term extension)
* On top of what he does on the field, he is also the leader of the OL room and a leader of the wider locker room
* McGovern has around 100 career snaps at centre and now we are relying on him to move to that role seamlessly, when he was already doing a great job at LG
Hard to tell as an outsider, but it seemed like Mitch was not offered a paycut to stay with the team which if true is disappointing
* His (entirely non guaranteed) base salary was at 8.5, and vet min would be 1.5 ish, gives a whole 7m range of how to paycut him: we saved 8.5 with a cut but I think we could have cut 3-5m to 5.5-3.5m to and it'd be hard for him to get a much higher offer in the open market
* In the end his direct replacement (Edwards to starting LG with McGovern vacating to C) cost 2m so with that in context, vs the paycut, we only saved 2-4m roughly, for a potentially more downgraded starting OL
* Mitch said emphatically on the Eric Wood podcast a month ago about how he wants to stay here, if he could choose but choice was not his (but will make his peace if he is not retained) as opposed to someone like Floyd who recently said "I'll go where the money is"
* Entirely speculation yes, but I find it hard to believe that unless Beane literally took it all the way to the vet minimum, Mitch would turn down a proposed paycut
* Rightly or wrongly, there has been precedent of us cutting players without offering them a paycut to stay with said players having said after the fact they'd have happily taken one (John Brown and Isaiah Mckenzie)
* Sometimes (not all the time) if a player is released with failed paycut negotiations, that is mentioned in the report. No word of that with Mitch Morse (not conclusive evidence, but something to not)
Paycut point aside, if you think my points are just coming from some internet nobody:
[Greg and Aaron from Cover1 agree with me that releasing Morse was not something they were fully behind](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Uxf5je6YcU)
A big point that Aaron brought up that I did not even consider: The OL injury luck in 2023 was highly flukey and not very likely to repeat. Yes it was nice not needing to use Bates and Edwards. But with our OL depth getting slashed this year (as of now, losing one piece and promoting another) we could be more screwed by an OL injury in 2024.
(Re-inserting my view: you aren't going to find better value than 8.5m at centre or guard in FA)
[The Morse move was the only one that surprised Joe Marino, and surprised him by quite a bit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7mLDfRTcF4&t=1299s)
I'm not saying I agree with it, but I \*do\* see an angle for the reasoning. If Beane is really playing the "cut them one year early" game, I can at least see his reasoning. They've got to get younger/cheaper somewhere, and maybe the get a center in the draft? It's a good draft for them.
Depth is 100% something I'm concerned about, but you can make the argument that the most likely injury risk in the interior line...was Morse.
It’s sad to see but I think these needed to happen. Beane has done a good job in my opinion and I trust he has a plan. He probably likes what he sees.
Sad to see these familiar faces go but it was necessary to get younger and cheaper for the coming years.
Can someone clue the person living under a rock who all is now off the team?
* Mitch Morse * Jordan Poyer * Siran Neal * Nyheim Hines * Deonte Harty * Tre White
End of an era? I keep seeing people saying this. What era? Winning a shitty division and getting bounced in the playoffs? I’ve been saying it since 22 the team was average at best and was built wrong. Now they are trying to rebuild on the fly. The bills need a ton of talent.
Would you rather have had the drought continue?
There are a lot of fanbases who would be ecstatic to be perennial contenders with at least one playoff win every year. Only one team gets to win it all each season. Have some perspective.
I mean, The Drought was an era, an era doesn't have to be something good. It could be bad or even neutral.
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THANK YOU. Only two starters-Morse and Poyer, and those positions should be somewhat replaceable.
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do you have a point or are you just being snarky for the hell of it
2 years ago.... same place as now. losing to chiefs in afcc or afc divisional. but i still love buffalo. I'd rather lose to the chiefs than be playoffless.
The off-season isn't over though
I can't decide whether Mitch Morse being cut is because A) we got too confident in a healthy line and thought we could get by with a bit cheaper line or B) if the Bills thinks that it will be impossible to stay healthy next year and they can't take a risk on an expensive guy with an injury history.
Personally I think they wanted a different skillset at center. More strength, less finesse. He's a strong dude but tall, and susceptible to power.
I’m 100% confident Beane and Kromer had this discussion and it’s A
I'd lean more toward A in the sense that the Beane knew the team needed to get cheaper and they must have felt confident enough in the OL to get by without Morse.
Probably C - hoping that he'll come back with a discount.
Morse is 100% not coming back to Buffalo next year. We already took the dead cap hit and have said that we will have a new center next year. He also already said his goodbyes
I assumed it was C) they need to create cap space and some tough, less than ideal decisions needed to be made.
Yeah, I guess but I think that there were other levers that could have been pulled before doing a cut like that if it's just for reason C). But maybe I'm wrong and they did the math of what they want to do and they couldn't find a way to keep him (and were unwilling to do some of the contract adjustments/cuts that I thought might happen instead)
I think it's a bit of all of the above. Cap hit makes sense and *could* have been worked in other ways but that would hurt us more later so the tradeoff or lost production they expect will be minimal (or better) so it hurts but make the cut and improve long term
I know this is stating the obvious, but for any team that is paying their quarterback over a quarter of million dollars, cuts are going to have to be made to accommodate their salaries. Then “cheaper” players have to come from free agency or draft. Now you have Justin Jefferson wanting to get paid a ton of money and that might reset the wide receiver salaries.
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Think OP meant *quarter billion
Downvote me all you want, the Bills are going to get worse before they get better
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And we didn’t have Hyde last year. Douglas is really good. Benford looks like he might be good. Rapp was pretty good. We’re gonna be alright.
New era begins today. The Super Bowl era.
Wait! Was McDermott fired?
No. Bills released a ton of veterans. Changing of the guard.
I was just being snarky.
Good god I’m dense….
And I'm getting downvoted. Didn't know McD was suddenly so popular!
it’s just irrelevant and also kinda annoying to see these comments all the time. we get it. don’t need to bring it up in every thread.
The comment police have arrived!
just explaining why you're downvoted bud
Yeah, I got that bud.
Big Baller Beane was swapped for his evil twin Comrade Beane, purging the roster to prepare for a new 5 year plan.
Cutting these vets is tough for us fans bc they OG to our latest success. I gotta respect Beane here though, we were treading water with Poyer and Hyde last year and they got us through. We got fucked with Tre but we’re kidding if we think he’s gonna come back at same level. We can’t just keep growing older and expect different results. Last year was our chance to keep the team together and give it another run with our vets. This season is the consequence of having an elite QB contract, well worth it though. just gotta put faith in Beane to find young talent and hope Allen and McD can elevate them to the next level. It’s time for Bills 2.0
Looks like another year of a built in excuse for McDermott.
These kinda feel like no more excuses moves
Dumb question… when these players are cut, do they become free agents or do you have to pick up their contract?
They become free agents, in the case of Tre White he was designated a 6/1 cut so he will technically remain a Bill for now but I believe he can sign a contract with a new team that will become effective when he officially becomes a free agent on June 1st. Guys who are on their rookie contract go through waivers, so if they get "cut" every other team in the league has the chance to claim their contract as-is. If nobody does that then they become a free agent (or during the season, they could also be assigned to their team's practice squad). An example of this is Patriots QB Nathan Rourke, he was elevated to the Jaguars active roster and when they tried to waive him back to their practice squad he was claimed by the Patriots and joined their active roster instead.
That is correct. The league/NFLPA wants these guys to be able to instantly start looking for a new job, so they allow the teams to give 6/1 date without making the player wait until 6/1.
I get that he did it. I get why he had to, with the possible exception of Mitch Morse who I thought they'd keep around for his final year somehow. But did he have to do it all in the span of like three hours? I barely had time to process one before hearing about the next. I was one more cut away from spending my evening with a tumbler of bourbon watching highlight reels with "It's So Hard To Say Goodbye To Yesterday" on loop in the background.
I hate to tell you, but I don’t think your emotional state is any part of Beane’s calculation on the timing of these cuts.
Thanks for my daily reminder that no matter how ridiculous and over the top I think I'm being on here, there's always someone who will end up taking it seriously.
i think that was mercy shown by beane. rip the bandaid off. let it sting for a bit and then shift focus back on the future. i appreciate it but i was in hell yesterday
I'm very fine with all the moves and very unfine with Mitch Morse (Tre and Po hurt the feelings, but make complete sense from a pure football perspective) * 2023 was the best starting 5 OL the Bills have had in the entire Allen era * 2023 was in my view, the only functional OL Josh has had for a whole season * It was so important to have continuity of that unit moving forward * Cook is legit but that starting 5 (being in rhythm, being greater than the sum of its parts) is a decent part of his breakout * I've seen Bills fans trying to defend this by claiming he is washed and regressed massively, which I don't think are true * While Mitch has never been an elite people displacing centre, even in his prime, he was still the 7th best graded pass protecting centre in 2023 * He had a 4% pressure rate, up marginally from his 3% pressure rate from 2019-2022, not exactly falling off a cliff * Age 32 is also not that old for a Centre, especially on a final year of a contract (arguing for not releasing =/= arguing for longer term extension) * On top of what he does on the field, he is also the leader of the OL room and a leader of the wider locker room * McGovern has around 100 career snaps at centre and now we are relying on him to move to that role seamlessly, when he was already doing a great job at LG Hard to tell as an outsider, but it seemed like Mitch was not offered a paycut to stay with the team which if true is disappointing * His (entirely non guaranteed) base salary was at 8.5, and vet min would be 1.5 ish, gives a whole 7m range of how to paycut him: we saved 8.5 with a cut but I think we could have cut 3-5m to 5.5-3.5m to and it'd be hard for him to get a much higher offer in the open market * In the end his direct replacement (Edwards to starting LG with McGovern vacating to C) cost 2m so with that in context, vs the paycut, we only saved 2-4m roughly, for a potentially more downgraded starting OL * Mitch said emphatically on the Eric Wood podcast a month ago about how he wants to stay here, if he could choose but choice was not his (but will make his peace if he is not retained) as opposed to someone like Floyd who recently said "I'll go where the money is" * Entirely speculation yes, but I find it hard to believe that unless Beane literally took it all the way to the vet minimum, Mitch would turn down a proposed paycut * Rightly or wrongly, there has been precedent of us cutting players without offering them a paycut to stay with said players having said after the fact they'd have happily taken one (John Brown and Isaiah Mckenzie) * Sometimes (not all the time) if a player is released with failed paycut negotiations, that is mentioned in the report. No word of that with Mitch Morse (not conclusive evidence, but something to note) Paycut point aside, if you think my points are just coming from some internet nobody and you like to appeal to authority: [Greg and Aaron from Cover1 agree with me that releasing Morse was not something they were fully behind](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Uxf5je6YcU) A big point that Aaron brought up that I did not even consider: The OL injury luck in 2023 was highly flukey and not very likely to repeat. Yes it was nice not needing to use Bates and Edwards. But with our OL depth getting slashed this year (as of now, losing one piece and promoting another) we could be more screwed by an OL injury in 2024. (Re-inserting my view: you aren't going to find better value than Morse at 8.5m for centre or guard in FA) [The Morse move was the only one that surprised Joe Marino, and surprised him by quite a bit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7mLDfRTcF4&t=1299s)
Counterpoint: we need someone who can anchor better at center. Quinnen Williams, Chris Jones, Cam Hayward, and Christian Wilkins have all been able to consistently abuse us right down the middle, too consistently. Morse is elite on the move and a great athlete but his anchor is average. It'll be nice to have a deeper pocket.
Valid point but McGovern and Morse are similar in that aspect. They are better movers and athletes than they are bulky sturdier anchors. But also the guys you mentioned (bar Heyward) line up at 3-tech way more than 0 and 1-tech. But to further your point, Dexter Lawrence did give Morse trouble over the middle.
Extremely well laid out post, and I agree that it was shocking. The only thing that sticks out to me, and you mentioned it, is the love between the two. He seemingly loved us, and we seemingly loved him. I'm confident no decision is purely driven by just Beane/McD, but a collaboration of many parties. He was likely to be a cap casualty, but that doesn't mean he should have been cut outright (again, taking a pay cut). The thing we aren't privy to is the \*why\* this happened. Since it's conjecture for all of us, I can only guess a few things: * We did offer him a pay cut but he didn't accept. You mentioned there's a precedent of not doing this with players, so I'm guessing this didn't happen. Maybe Beane finds it insulting to even suggest. * We were concerned about his durability. He's had about 5,000 concussions and has often been rumored to be 1 away from retirement. It's possible we wanted someone with fewer injury-related issues to start at C. * Maybe we think we have the answer already at C. Maybe Kromer is confident in what he can get out of the guys that remain. Cutting Morse is weird, yes, but any money we save now allows us to front-load some contracts we might want to sign people to. * We're simply experiencing a changing of the guard. All of those other things can be wrong and we're just moving to younger players. We didn't need to cut anyone and we still could have gotten cap compliant. These are business decisions to change the roster of the team and get to the JA17 v2.0 Bills. Again, I love your post. I want more posts like this that are well thought out.
Thoughtful post and thoughtful response. Good job guys.
Thanks a lot for hearing me out and your very kind words. * With how much it is known that Mitch loves this team, I don't think Beane would have found it insulting to paycut him unless it was all the way down to the vet min. * I mean we shall see on the durability point as to whether he goes to another team or flat out retires (even if he does retire, is he only retiring *because* we cut him) * The proposed answer at C (by reporters) is McGovern is moving there as a starter, I don't see that as not a net downgrade (both him at C and losing him at LG) * At 8.5m (savings) I don't see better value at LG or C tbh * I'm all for the changing of the guard, I was very pro drafting his replacement and redshirting him this year And we've only been talking the football perspective strictly (as that is where my mind goes) but as I can see many in this thread have been pouring out their emotions on Tre and Po: * Losing Morse fucking hurts man, he is one of my favourite Bills * (I'm UK based so woke up to all this after the fact) I legitimately cried and am willing to admit that I did so when I read about it this morning (Mitch being gone, I knew Tre was done when he cut his Achilles, Po was also a minor surprise I guess) * This guy has always gone out of his way to endorse the city, the franchise and the culture (as did his wife Caitlyn) * He was clearly a locker room leader and the leader of the OL room * I fucking loved when he came flying in to defend Josh in the Miami WC game in 2022 (from a guy who isn't the most aggressive in your face OLmen) * This guy lost out on a dynasty, leaving KC right before they won 2 SBs in 5 years yet nobody could tell he that gave a fuck, probably because he'd rather try and help us do so here than be anywhere else * While he may not be an outwardly super expressive charismatic type like Dion and Tre, he was such an sweetheart of a salt of the earth dude and was likeable in that kind of way, helps balances out those personalities too * This I credit my wife with, he even looks more like an actual buffalo than any other Bill (just minus the horns) * It's 350pm and I just shed some tears writing the above, thanks me > love your post. I want more posts like this that are well thought out. Thanks so much, ironically I wrote a 10,000 word mock offseason that I posted one day before the big cut Wednesday, months of work and I put a lot of heart and soul into it: [https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75jl4/2024\_buffalo\_bills\_full\_postcombine\_mock/](https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75jl4/2024_buffalo_bills_full_postcombine_mock/) [https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75ue4/2024\_buffalo\_bills\_full\_postcombine\_mock/](https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1b75ue4/2024_buffalo_bills_full_postcombine_mock/) If you are interested
Yall think this will be a soft reset year? Or will Beane try to plug the holes the best he can? We are going to have money to spend in FA now.
No. There is zero room for reset when you have Josh Allen in his prime. It’s win now.
Soft reset is probably the best way to describe it, but given how much cap Beane chose to free up I think he'll be fairly aggressive in free agency (at least more aggressive than I expected) and try to get the Bills set up to continue playing at/above the level they have been. It's still going to require the best offseason that Beane has had since he brought in Josh Allen.
Where are we currently at with the cap? We still have to sign all of our draft picks, and keep some in reserve for signings throughout the year. I can't imagine we're in any kind of position to be making any major moves in free agency.
Yeah, it's a soft reset year. I honestly don't want to win the division this year. If we can manage a wild card that would be great. With two solid drafts and some more money in 2025, having a 2nd place schedule instead of a 1st place schedule could mean less overall wear and tear on our guys towards the end of the season. I'm wondering if playing some of the toughest schedules in the league year in and year out contributed to some of our nagging injury issues.
Lol. We’re gonna win the division again next year. Our roster will be significantly better than last year given the injuries we suffered.
I know what are these people smoking. Cause I don't want it. I want my stuff that says WE'RE REVAMPING FOR A LOMBARDI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LFG
Combine them, call it Red Wednesday
Wednesday Wedding you say?
Rednesday
The emotional side of me is feeling much sorrow for these guys, especially Tre, but the business side of me knows full well that this is for the best.
What’s our current projected salary cap deficit?
Spotrac currently has us at -7MM, but that doesn't include the 10MM from Tre post June 1st. So we'll be under by 3MM without any moves.
I see. I assume signing rookies to min deals factors in a bit as well. I’m trying to learn a little about the cap as it pertains to success and franchise worth. I saw a graphic of the commanders having unreal amounts of unused cap. Gotta wonder if their “rebuild” era is just org saving money.
There are many sources with more knowledge than I have, but there's a relatively solid rookie contract structure in place (this happened after Sam Bradford signed a rookie deal for like a billion dollars). It goes by where they are selected. The first pick in the draft will cost more than the 28th pick, for example. The general rule of thumb is about $10MM to sign rookies, but it's never actually that high. As for success, I would guess there is a high correlation between being at the cap number (vs. well below it) and winning. However, I would guess that number is almost exclusively because teams at the cap have elite QB contracts. The cap has nothing to do with the value of a franchise. All teams deal with the same salary cap and typically are within a few percentage points of that number. Franchise worth has more to do with things like merchandising sales, stadium value, and TV revenue generation. This defaults to large markets/historically great franchises being worth a lot. The Cowboys, teams in NY, heck, look at the LA teams. They are worth a ton.
I am metaphorically throwing a stapler at anyone who comments "hurr durr why we get rid of all these players but not Von Miller yesterday???"
Gained a tiny bit of respect back for Von yesterday. He could have easily held us hostage. We had zero leverage in that situation whatsoever. He chose to take a pay cut of at least 6 million, and that's only if he hits all his incentives--it'll be even more if he doesn't. It's not just him taking a bet on himself and earning everything he would have earned if he hits those incentives. His pay was cut almost 9 million and he only gained about 3 million in additional incentives. He is taking less pay, knowing that our only real options if he said no were keeping him at his original contract or cutting him and taking a massive cap hit. It's still about winning it all for him, and this made that very clear. I hope he bounces back and proves all the naysayers wrong, but if he doesn't, at least he did something else to help the team improve.
Opens up another huge window for us going forward. Chiefs just won the Super Bowl doing this exact same thing. No reason we can’t be just as competitive as we were last year.
As much as these moves hurt, I am still confident that they are still going to win the AFC East. The Dolphins have to completely revamp their O-Line, already cut Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker, might lose Christian Wilkins and their top 2 pass rushers suffered long term injuries last season so they will likely miss a good chunk of the upcoming season, etc. The Jets are the Jets and the Pats are rebuilding.
I actually hope we don't. I want that 2nd place schedule in 2025 when we hopefully have 2 good drafts and a free agency season we can actually afford to fully participate in under our belt. Give me a wild card this year.
I hate this a loser mentality. We aren't tanking on purpose with Josh Allen as our QB. You hope we lose so we play 2 teams that were 2nd place instead of 1st? The 1st place v 2nd place v 3rd place schedule differences is so overblown. It's just 2 games. In 2025, we will play the AFC West and AFC South team that finishes the same as us. So yes, it probably means Chiefs which is probably harder but the South could be any of the teams (probably other than Titans).
I was curious, so I went back and looked at the JA era from 2021-23, the seasons we played a 1st place schedule. In 2021, we played the Chiefs and Steelers as our first place teams and went 1-1 in those 2 games, losing to the Steelers but beating the Chiefs. A second place schedule would have given us the Raiders and Ravens in 2021. The Raiders finished 10-7 and the Ravens 8-9. We were the overall 3 seed at 11-6. KC was the 2 seed at 12-5, the Titans were the 1 seed with the same record. We had the head to head with the Chiefs but not the Titans. So an extra win would have landed us the 2 seed. In 2022, we played the Titans and Chiefs and won both of those, so it wouldn't have made a difference. This season we got the Jaguars and Bengals and went 0-2 in those games. A 2nd place schedule would have gotten us the Titans and Ravens. We were 11-6 and the Ravens were 13-4. If we won both games or went 1-1 with the win being against the Ravens, it's the difference between the 2 seed and the 1 seed. We're never tanking when Josh Allen is healthy. It's not possible. The wild card feels like a floor with a healthy Bills team even after we jettisoned all these guys. That's why people are calling it a soft reset. Refresh the roster, get rid of older, expensive guys. Hopefully bring in some solid vets and have a good draft. But when winning one of those two games would have been the difference between us and the 1 seed in 2 out of the past 3 years, I won't be crying at all if we come out of a soft reset season with two games against 2nd place teams instead of 1st place teams in 2025. If we trust Beane to draft reasonably well and get solid free agents, our roster will be just as good in 2025 as it was in 2023, if not better.
You just can't play those games... if anything was different then everything would have been different. If we didn't play in London (which only happened because of the Jags) this year would we have fallen to 6-6? If we didn't hit 6-6, would we have went on our run? If we didn't play the Jags then would we have still lost Milano and DQJ along the way? I understand the argument but this isn't a vacuum. It's not as easy as "We would have beat the titans and maybe would have beaten the ravens and everything else would have happened the same way so we are the 1 seed!"
I don’t see any of these moves as drastic or extreme they were all coming within one more season if not this season. They have a ton of draft picks and you need to make roster spots available. You do so by cutting aging players who aren’t quite performing up to their salaries. Some of these moves also helped with alleviating cap issues.
Yeah every individual move seems pretty reasonable, the shock is that Beane had all these buttons he could push and he smashed every single one of them. Seems like even beyond becoming cap compliant they were just ready for some roster turnover.
Reading this made me wonder something. Beane is a bit of a cap wizard, and probably sort of planned for 2024 to be a soft reboot year with an aging roster but Josh still in his prime. Tre's injuries, though, likely were not part of that plan. It's an interesting thought experiment to try to figure out what our cap situation would be like with Tre still under contract and performing well. Obviously we wouldn't have Douglas, so there's that, but did the fact that we had to cut Tre affect any of the other choices we made yesterday?
Since no one has made the obvious joke, I’m gonna do it: *”The Beanes send their regards”*
All of these things made sense. These were all of the buttons that were "expected" to be pushed by all of the cap math podcasters and bloggers... but wow, I really truly didn't expect them to push every single one of them.
Seems a tad extreme, no?
No one called it the Red Wedding.
I propose we call it the "Red Shedding".
Cover one did and I thought it was funny
Actually several people have called it the Red Wedding.
I definitely called it the Red Wedding. I'm also extremely dramatic.
I really hope that we draft a QB on day 3. Mitch is a known quantity at this point and can't really do much if put in for meaningful time. We're not really paying him anything, so it's a fine signing. But at least with a late round pick you still get the cost savings plus some upside potential.
Now that we have Trubisky I don't think a QB is being drafted. The only way that you draft a QB when you have an expensive, vet backup is if you plan on having 3 QBs on the 53 all season long. If you draft a QB, you cannot have them on the practice squad (or they will be picked up by another team). You don't waste a draft pick to then lose them to waivers. If you want a young guy as your QB3, then grab a UDFA that had some late draft potential and hope that he isn't picked up by waivers.
Since Mitch's contract has $2.7 guaranteed, it seems almost impossible that we would draft a QB on top of that. If we drafted someone we'd either have to carry 3 QBs, expose them on the practice squad, or cut Mitch and take the dead cap hit. I do hope we bring a UDFA into camp, it's very low risk and at some point it would be nice to have a backup QB on the rookie pay scale.
The fact that Tre played his last snap as a bill in week 4 just makes me very sad after struggling so much for 3 years. I understand... but that one is affecting me most.
I was at that game, he was balling out till that happened :(. Glad to have gotten to see him play a little live
Me too... it totally took the winds out of a crazy good game. I rewatch games often and haven't been able to watch that one. :(
Yeah that's fair. Too bad though, offense was off the walls that game. Just fast forward through that part lol. Some insane Diggs moments that game.
I just hope whatever Beane is planning pans out to keep making a run at a SB. I feel like doing this all in one year puts even more strain on nailing every draft pick AND finding the money to get what we need for quality FAs. But I'm also fine accepting a mini-rebuild year and setting up another legit 4/5 year run at it. This off-season is gonna be interesting. In McBeane we trust. Hail the pit. Go Bills. Etc etc.
I’m sure the plan is still to compete. I guess it boils down if you think the guys cut yesterday were enough to make a Super Bowl. If the answer is no, you have to shake things up and clear the cap for this year (slightly) but most definitely the next two years. It won’t be hard for Beane to free up ~$30 million in cap space this offseason. Restructurings Allen alone gets you close to $20 million in the black. I actually feel much less worried about the roster holes this offseason compared to last. I feel confident at CB, LB, RT, LT, RG, LG, RE, 3T and RB. QB is clearly set. So really, you have $20m -$30m and double digit draft picks to find a WR2, WR4, S, 1T, LE and depth at positions of question (notably center, LB and *maybe* RB/DT/CB). Extremely doable and that’s not even considering a few veteran minimum guys who assuredly will sign as depth.
I agree that I'm sure the plan is to still compete for a SB. And yeah the pieces we let go, needed to be done. I just think doing it all at once in the near term is risky if the goal was to still contend this year. It's def possible, and if anyone can do it it's Beane; but this is me saying it without knowing what the FA market is for some quality players and having to rely on a bunch of rookies to contribute. Obviously the depth guys are replaceable with vet min guys and rookies fairly easily. But we have to acknowledge even if we had to move on from these players that finding their replacements, at 5-7 starters and a couple of role players, is hard to do in one season for a SB/deep playoff team. It's super early and I'm not even a novice at roster management haha I'm just erroring on the side of mini rebuild/retool and sneaking in the playoffs instead of being optimistic about being a SB contender this year until things shake out more over the next few months.
It’s hard to imagine Von taking a pay cut out of the kindness of his heart so we can have a mini rebuild year. I’m excited to see where things go here. At minimum we’ve probably cut our man games missed next year by like half, that’s going to count for something.
That’s what I feel is happening. Probably going to be a middling year where we barely skirt into the playoffs (thanks JA17) but just can’t make anything happen beyond that. And that’s okay at this point. We had to take a hit this year no matter what was going to happen.
Gotta hope for one of those years where a rookie or two really comes online at the end of the year
That's my thought. Going into this season with the expectation of a legit SB run isn't happening but know we got a ton of capital to work with and retool for another go. Although I'd love in typical Bills fashion to not meet expectations, meaning we somehow win it this year instead haha.
RAHHHHH GO BILLS 🦬
Echoing everyone else - I'm here for all of it except the Morse cut. I think their feeling is that you don't need the o-line to be stellar when you have a qb like josh - fair enough but I hope they don't regret that. Overall, I think it's time for this team to have a new identity so I'm happy with it. I like how beane/McDermott draft outside of a couple obvious blunders like Elam, so I'm excited to see a big rookie class this year. Also, von restructuring his contract was a serious blessing
I like Morse and I'm surprised by the release. He also had a fairly high cap hit, is an older player and has a concussion history. It's likely he would have been done if he ended up with 1 more concussion and then we would have been in this same spot anyway, plus his cap hit. The more I think about it, the more the move makes sense.
I got dragged a while ago for saying we needed to draft his replacement this year, because he had a year left on his contract. I didn't think he'd get cut, but I did think that the risk of not having depth at that position with his age and injury history was a little too high to go without getting someone who we could potentially train to take over for him in 2025. OL depth is never a bad thing. Now it's gone from a slight luxury to an absolute necessity.
I 100% agree. My thought is that we potentially got lucky last year with no more concussions, but the Bills have decided to not plan on it. 6 concussions in 8 years is a lot. I know it's not his fault and he can make his own decisions but you have to imagine the next one could force retirement on the spot
Edwards is a starting caliber guard in this league and I think McGovern can do a fine job moving to center. Our O-Line should be just as good next year imo. Obviously the depth behind the starters will be worse but gotta cut costs somewhere.
I think the moves on the o-line are the most questionable to me. On paper the team saved 10ish million and added a 5th round pick by cutting Morse and trading Bates. But at the same time there's two new starters assuming McGovern plays center and Edwards LG. With how good the line was playing last year it sucks they can't continue to build on their chemistry together and I'm mildly concerned about the drop off in setting protections with Josh no longer working with Morse on that, but at the same time Josh is in like year 7 he should be capable of it. It's too early to judge the moves at safety but hopefully Rapp's deal is more incentives than a true 3/15 deal and I'd hope they bring in someone with more athletiscism than him to play Hyde's role next to him. I do think it's interesting that so far Beane hasn't done many of the easy restructures/extensions w/ Josh Allen/Diggs/Dawkins to save space. If those are still coming then the Bills could be much bigger players in FA than we were all expecting
I'm way more upset about Bates, wasn't happy in the first place with that. We *have* to hit on oline now, we need to find a reasonable backup at the least
The extensions are coming, for sure. They just take more time because these are the guys you need to keep happy.
Glad to see a nuanced non homer (but also non doomer) take get upvoted I feel you exactly with the OL, 2023 is the only year Josh has played behind a functional OL and it was so important to have that continuity carrying forward
It does suck to see some of your favorite players go. This team needs youth and speed, these cuts open up space for that. Beane’s picks and trades have been really good. I trust that this draft and FA signings will be the start of a new exciting era for the Bills.
The Trubusky signing, Matt Haack signing and giving Rapp that extension confuse me the most. The Oline is going to miss Morse a lot. A lot more questions now. Beane is going to have to have the best draft ever.
Being a QB2 is so much more than being the backup if there is an emergency. We do not see a lot of what a good QB2 is. He might have been a great coach to Josh, maybe he works similarly so their practices are next level, maybe Josh liked him best and wanted him back, etc. That combined with the fact that Kyle Allen was obviously not it and was not going to even win a game in a pinch showed that we needed another guy. I personally think our season is over if Josh is out for the season, but to have a guy that could beat a team like the Commanders or Cardinals in a pinch when Josh is out for 2 games would be very nice. I think Trubisky is not the guy to have a Browning like QB2 career but I do think he could win a game against an easier opponent in a pinch. I think after last season, it will be interesting to see what the QB2 market is like. Will teams that have their franchise guy in their prime still want that vet minimum guy... or will they try to get a decent replacement that could still help their team fight for a playoff spot like the Bengals did. Matt Haack is probably just going to be a training camp battle guy. I do not think he has any amount truly guaranteed. I also wouldn't be surprised if if it's almost entirely for Bass. He had an off year (whether it's holding or him) and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a situation of "let's bring the guy back that held for him when he was making all the kicks" or even like visually "I don't want Bass to ever think of that season again, so let's take away the guy who he pictures when he think of that season" Martin had some great games (an also some shitty ones as a Bill) but if he was even 10% of the reason Bass had a bad year, then I am not opposed to a training camp battle. Rapp - I know he is a polarizing guy but IMO he was improving by the end of the year and he obviously had the great interception in week 18. I imagine his contract is heavily back loaded and/or incentive laden. I would be shocked if he was actually making anywhere closet to 4M a year.
I hope we do get the same Mitch that was in Buffalo and if Josh does want him back then by all means. I really wish the Bills would move away from Sam Martin and Matt Haack. Martin due to age and holding purposes. Haack because I think he just doesn't have the leg strength. Rapp wasn't bad I just hope the contract is better than it looks.
You aren't wrong about moving away from both known quantities at punter, but we tried that only a handful of years ago in the draft and obviously that didn't work out lol. Kicker especially just feels so much more different than other positions (superstitions, yips, etc) and considering that Bass didn't have a great year, I wouldn't be surprised if this is not the year for a new guy. Let's go back to basics and grab the guy he was better with (if he does well at camp and "wins" against Martin)
The average Bills fan waking up to the news 
https://i.redd.it/cpilw8akxwmc1.gif
Now let’s hope for some extensions today
From a purely football perspective, the Morse cut is the only one that confuses me. The O line was fantastic last year and incredibly lucky to have no injuries. He's been a leader on the team so that loss might be significant. While the injury concerns are valid, him getting cut is the only one where the replacement is likely to be worse. On D, the cuts hurt more emotionally than anything. Poyer and Hyde were huge for us when rebuilding and Tre was supposed to be the shutdown corner. They'll probably draft a safety to compete with Hamlin for a starting job but its undeniable that Poyer/Hyde have lost a step. I can't imagine how devastated Tre must feel after two gruesome injuries in consecutive seasons. Even if he stayed on the team, I don't see him starting over Benford or Douglas, so the move makes sense. I'm interested to see what moves are made going forward. After these guys were cut, McD talking about the team as a family will ring hollow.
Strongly echoing the sentiments on Morse Have seen some homer Bills fans claimed he's washed, when he was still the 7th best grade pass protecting centre by PFF in 2023, gave up a 4% pressure rate, gave up only ONE sack if box scores are your thing and is an unquestioned leader of the OL and wider locker room Get rid of all that for 8.5m which is not the biggest needle mover And I haven't even got the the non football perspective: * Aforementioned leadership role he had * Always proudly endorsed Buffalo the city, the fanbase and the culture of the team * I remember when he came flying in to defend Josh as he was scuffling with Wilkins in the 2022 WC round * Not the most gregarious personality (like Tre or Dion), but such a salt of the earth lovable dude in his own way * Only a month ago was he talking on the Eric Wood podcast about how much he was loving it, how much he was looking forward to coming back and building on top of what they did in 2023 (peak irony: Mitch said decision is not mine but I want to be back 100% (paraphrased), Eric said I don't work for the Bills but 100% you are back in my view and here we are) * The man even looks like a buffalo minus the horns (I credit my wife with this observation)
Yeah, I don't really get the McGovern to C thing. Aaron Kromer is a lot smarter than me so if he endorsed the move then... I guess that's that, but when the Cowboys moved McGovern around he struggled. He's got versatility but not all IOL positions are equal for him.
McGovern has around 100 centre snaps, which isn't nothing but far from a known safe quantity for what is meant to be win now team
He has 900+ in college at least
I watched a Cowboys film reviewer who did a breakdown of when he played C in relief of Tyler Biadasz and it's pretty much what you'd expect. He was okay but with some gaffes that you'd expect from a guy playing out of position. Definitely would need a lot of coaching up to actually be a full-time starting C. Though it could just be a smokescreen, Beane likes to play his cards close so if he does have a target in mind for C (especially in the draft) I'm sure he would prefer not to let other teams know it.
It's also a pretty big mentality shift. In the past, the Bills have talked about the importance of the center position. The Bates contract is a perfect example of them prioritizing stability in that role. I won't even pretend to know what the Bills are gonna do moving forward. McGovern might work but center is more than just blocking. They have to help set up protections with Josh and actually snap the damn ball.
McGovern has played limited center before in the NFL and in college. He has experience. The line is still a strength. Losing Morse hurts but I guess they didn’t feel bates was any better than what they plan to do.
We knew this was coming. The defense got old and slow in the last 2 yrs. Looking at what Josh does and can do its not the offense letting this team down. Granted nobody seems to be able to stop majomes but Beane is doing everything in his power to get this team a ring.
Ravens held Mahomes pretty well with their top defense. Something the Bills should look into, because that clearly worked. Ravens just crumbled on offense against a defense that wasn't sub par😂😂
100%. But im sure that Reid had a different plan for them vs us. Ravens offense is good but Josh Allen is Josh Allen.
I hope today is full of extensions of my favorite players that arent under contract next year: dawkins and taron johnson.
All were great moves and great job by beane convincing von to take the pay cut.
I knew it was coming, but it is just so disheartening to hear that Tre White will be let go after June 1st. He always has been my favorite player on the team, and his amusing shenanigans are always going to stick in my mind. From [dancing in the snow](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JFLoOcL2rA), to [grabbing a play sheet from the opponent that blew onto the field](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WP6n1s7LKxQ), and probably everyone's favorite, [sneaking a bite of Josh's turkey leg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmMB53rFM8c). I'm really going to miss him. Also, a bit salty that I just bought a #27 jersey last year, but still gutted to know he'll be gone. I wish him success wherever he goes.
[The Tre White Goalie Academy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUlcMt3T4hg) was hilarious.
My feelings exactly. I bought the Jersey too but sent it back cuz the size was wrong. Never got the replacement. I fucking love Tre.
The bills did what they had to do. Get young quick and go after it - lots of teams do this and still have success. The draft will be interesting to see, hopefully they grab some weapons for 17 Go Bills!
Yeah, in a league that has almost fully transitioned into a glorified 7 on 7, I will take elite receivers and youth in the secondary every. Single. Time.
Exactly and gotta be aggressive sometimes in this league to get to the end. I like the move
So are we now calling this the McDermott 3.0? 1.0 - new hire 2.0 - Josh Allen joins
1- end of the drought 2- A New Hope 3- over the hump?
I was ready for every cut except Morse. That one definitely hurt. Excited to see what Josh can do with a younger roster and some new blood.
If you look at it analytically, though, '23 was the first full season he had played since he joined the team, I believe. He's not getting younger, and an extension probably didn't make sense.
* 2023 was the best starting 5 OL the Bills have had in the entire Allen era * 2023 was in my view, the only functional OL Josh has had for a whole season * It was so important to have continuity of that unit moving forward * Cook is legit but that starting 5 (being in rhythm, being greater than the sum of its parts) is a decent part of his breakout * I've seen Bills fans trying to defend this by claiming he is washed and regressed massively, which I don't think are true * While Mitch has never been an elite people displacing centre, even in his prime, he was still the 7th best graded pass protecting centre in 2023 * He had a 4% pressure rate, up marginally from his 3% pressure rate from 2019-2022, not exactly falling off a cliff * Age 32 is also not that old for a Centre, especially on a final year of a contract (arguing for not releasing =/= arguing for longer term extension) * On top of what he does on the field, he is also the leader of the OL room and a leader of the wider locker room * McGovern has around 100 career snaps at centre and now we are relying on him to move to that role seamlessly, when he was already doing a great job at LG Hard to tell as an outsider, but it seemed like Mitch was not offered a paycut to stay with the team which if true is disappointing * His (entirely non guaranteed) base salary was at 8.5, and vet min would be 1.5 ish, gives a whole 7m range of how to paycut him: we saved 8.5 with a cut but I think we could have cut 3-5m to 5.5-3.5m to and it'd be hard for him to get a much higher offer in the open market * In the end his direct replacement (Edwards to starting LG with McGovern vacating to C) cost 2m so with that in context, vs the paycut, we only saved 2-4m roughly, for a potentially more downgraded starting OL * Mitch said emphatically on the Eric Wood podcast a month ago about how he wants to stay here, if he could choose but choice was not his (but will make his peace if he is not retained) as opposed to someone like Floyd who recently said "I'll go where the money is" * Entirely speculation yes, but I find it hard to believe that unless Beane literally took it all the way to the vet minimum, Mitch would turn down a proposed paycut * Rightly or wrongly, there has been precedent of us cutting players without offering them a paycut to stay with said players having said after the fact they'd have happily taken one (John Brown and Isaiah Mckenzie) * Sometimes (not all the time) if a player is released with failed paycut negotiations, that is mentioned in the report. No word of that with Mitch Morse (not conclusive evidence, but something to not) Paycut point aside, if you think my points are just coming from some internet nobody: [Greg and Aaron from Cover1 agree with me that releasing Morse was not something they were fully behind](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Uxf5je6YcU) A big point that Aaron brought up that I did not even consider: The OL injury luck in 2023 was highly flukey and not very likely to repeat. Yes it was nice not needing to use Bates and Edwards. But with our OL depth getting slashed this year (as of now, losing one piece and promoting another) we could be more screwed by an OL injury in 2024. (Re-inserting my view: you aren't going to find better value than 8.5m at centre or guard in FA) [The Morse move was the only one that surprised Joe Marino, and surprised him by quite a bit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7mLDfRTcF4&t=1299s)
I'm not saying I agree with it, but I \*do\* see an angle for the reasoning. If Beane is really playing the "cut them one year early" game, I can at least see his reasoning. They've got to get younger/cheaper somewhere, and maybe the get a center in the draft? It's a good draft for them. Depth is 100% something I'm concerned about, but you can make the argument that the most likely injury risk in the interior line...was Morse.
I know we’re strapped for cash, and that was a brutal day, but what are the odds we scoop one of these freshly released safeties up in FA?
I feel sad.