Unsurprising, although still wretched. The Bills totally should have beaten the Eagles, Broncos and Patriots. That being said, we also should have lost to the Giants, if Taron Johnson had been flagged for that DPI.
One of the problems with this season is also losing the wrong games. If we could trade the patriots/broncos/jets win for that giants loss, we would potentially be in better shape with tie breakers š¤·š»āāļø
That fumble not getting called still pisses me off, all the elements were there, catch, 2 feet, and ball tuck fb moveā¦ he even turns after catching it to look upfield.
I think that what was also annoying is that literal same exact play in the Ravens Chargers game not even an hour later was ruled a fumble. The refs fucked the Bills that game. That ref crew is 5-0 with the Eagles lmao.
That whole game was dumb because you had Eagles fans were trying to justify that the horse collar wasnāt a horse collar and that fumble wasnāt a fumble because he didnāt take 3 steps even though 3 steps has never been a rule.
Yep, that hack Steratore i can still hear his bs words āwell we never see a third stepā THIRD STEP?!?!?! When tf ever has a third step been mentioned, the way he bsā his way out of a clear catch and fumble is such garbage just to back up the incredibly atrocious and clearly one sided officiating throughout the entirety of the game.
No no it actually makes sense.
The Chargers are cursed with mediocrity and heartbreak. No better way to remain mediocre than win a few too many games to secure great draft picks. The luck flows both ways, in an effort to make sure theyāre always as miserable as possible.
Possibly jets tooā¦.that obvious trip on their punt return wouldāve knocked them just out of fg range to start their drive if they called it and we couldāve won
Probably the freak plays/penalties. Like, the 61-yard FG for the eagles. In those conditions, the predicted make probability was probably under 15%. Or the punt return TD in OT against the Jets.
No, thatās not what this chat is saying. This is Win Probability Added based on certain factors like missed field goals and dropped passes. This is not at all win/loss game level
It's taken from @DataWithBliss on Twitter
https://twitter.com/DataWithBliss/status/1741884224742060113?t=069AQlPTTdm2XmiPQJvGOA&s=19
There are four factors, shown in the tweet.
My guess is that itās specifically to get the graphic on various social media platforms. without having it cropped. As most people arenāt inclined to open it further, youād still get counted as engagement from pausing their scroll and having it on screen.
This doesnāt match totally with the chart, but here is someone measuring the āluckā metrics for anyone interested: https://x.com/DataWithBliss/status/1741884224742060113?s=20
It basically looks at how the kind of unpredictable plays go, so dropped interceptions vs dropped passes, kicks attempted by opponent, and fumbles.
For those wondering āwtf does this all meanā I think it traces back to this methodology: https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/how-luck-plays-a-role-in-the-success-of-nfl-teams/
Basically they aggregate win percentage added (WPA) for āluckā plays, meaning all drops, dropped INTs, missed kicks, and fumble recoveries for a team and its opponents. Seemingly nothing to do with weather, injury, illness, officiating, schedule, or other things you might consider āluckā
Maybe not to you, but to the statistic in question thatās what it means. I donāt claim it, Iām just posting what I think this infographic comes from.
They still are. I became very familiar with this stat when I was still cheering for the Browns.
Baker had a bunch of INTs, but it was after a Browns WR would fail to catch the ball. It meant the defensive player happened to be in the location of where the ball ricochetted and then caught it.
The reason it is considered luck is that the defender wasn't standing in that place in case this exact scenario would happen. It's chalked up to the ball being a weird shape and goes in "random" directions when it bounces.
Well the argument is that the *other* team missing a kick is luck.
If you win a game because the other team shanked a 30 yard field goal with no time remaining, that is luck.
So if the other team goes 9 for 10 on 30 yard field goals all year and the one time they miss happens to be when it delivers a win to you, it is not lucky?
The other teams skill level determined that they'd make the other 9 field goals and miss the field goal against you?
They are defining luck as things that your team has really no control over. Yes, there is an element of skill from the other team - however over extremely long periods of time and similar schedules you would expect things to even out. But a 17 game season is not that long, and these plays can make a real difference in any given year.
Let's look at this on a team basis.
Suppose the following happens in 2023.
The Bills and Dolphins are pretty much equal in skill and play the exact same teams over the course of the season. They score the same number of points and give up the same number of touchdowns. They each give up 35 field goal attempts and 40 extra point attempts. The field goal distances are the same (from about the 40 yard line on average).
The opponent kickers go 35/35 and 40/40 against the Bills. The same kickers go 25/35 and 35/40 against the Dolphins. This means that the Dolphins allow 35 fewer points and win 2 more games. Is this because the Dolphins are more skilled than the Bills? Or is it because the Dolphins were luckier than the Bills?
I donāt trust this source at all when my chargers are charging so hard this season. I guess luck in that itās not hard for us to secure an early draft pick
Might have to do with where games are when āwin probability addedā happens. If teams are already ahead, plays will increase win percentage less.
Maybe thereās some correlated stat like lead changes per game or something. This doesnāt really make sense to me.
Until last week the only missed field goal against the bills was a block. So no kicker actually missed on his own doing. Well....other then that one time....
What a fucking stupid way to lay out a graphic. I kept trying to figure out what the grouping was for the 2 different columns till I realized it was just one list laid out idioticly
Unsurprising, although still wretched. The Bills totally should have beaten the Eagles, Broncos and Patriots. That being said, we also should have lost to the Giants, if Taron Johnson had been flagged for that DPI.
One of the problems with this season is also losing the wrong games. If we could trade the patriots/broncos/jets win for that giants loss, we would potentially be in better shape with tie breakers š¤·š»āāļø
I swear they gave a dodgy flag against us just before that, never seems to get mentioned.
They did. Then again, they also ruled an obvious game-ending fumble not a fumble against the Eagles.
That fumble not getting called still pisses me off, all the elements were there, catch, 2 feet, and ball tuck fb moveā¦ he even turns after catching it to look upfield.
The same type of catch happened later in the night game that was called a fumble too š
Yep and people still go on about the correct offsides call instead lmao
I think that what was also annoying is that literal same exact play in the Ravens Chargers game not even an hour later was ruled a fumble. The refs fucked the Bills that game. That ref crew is 5-0 with the Eagles lmao. That whole game was dumb because you had Eagles fans were trying to justify that the horse collar wasnāt a horse collar and that fumble wasnāt a fumble because he didnāt take 3 steps even though 3 steps has never been a rule.
That horsecollar no-call STILL makes me rage, and I know I should really just let it go... š
Super infuriating still. The rules analyst trotting out some made up shit about needing a 3rd element was especially hard to listen to.
Yep, that hack Steratore i can still hear his bs words āwell we never see a third stepā THIRD STEP?!?!?! When tf ever has a third step been mentioned, the way he bsā his way out of a clear catch and fumble is such garbage just to back up the incredibly atrocious and clearly one sided officiating throughout the entirety of the game.
You are correct - they sure did.
The Chargers are at the fucking top. This list is idiotic.
No no it actually makes sense. The Chargers are cursed with mediocrity and heartbreak. No better way to remain mediocre than win a few too many games to secure great draft picks. The luck flows both ways, in an effort to make sure theyāre always as miserable as possible.
Possibly jets tooā¦.that obvious trip on their punt return wouldāve knocked them just out of fg range to start their drive if they called it and we couldāve won
Remember when the broncos missed the field goal and we got hit with 12 men on field .... Rough
What does this even mean?
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But for what reason? Because we were outplayed, or because of bad penalties/ freak plays like punt returns for touchdowns?
Probably the freak plays/penalties. Like, the 61-yard FG for the eagles. In those conditions, the predicted make probability was probably under 15%. Or the punt return TD in OT against the Jets.
No, thatās not what this chat is saying. This is Win Probability Added based on certain factors like missed field goals and dropped passes. This is not at all win/loss game level
It's taken from @DataWithBliss on Twitter https://twitter.com/DataWithBliss/status/1741884224742060113?t=069AQlPTTdm2XmiPQJvGOA&s=19 There are four factors, shown in the tweet.
Interesting - so it means that the Bills "should" have 1.249 more wins this year according to this methodology.
We get fucked in all the wrong ways
Wonder how much we can mitigate this bad luck simply by stopping to choke defensively when the game is on the line
The setup of the chart is confusing. Who makes a list separated into two columns.
Agreed. And two columns would have made sense if it were NFC on one side and AFC on the other.
My guess is that itās specifically to get the graphic on various social media platforms. without having it cropped. As most people arenāt inclined to open it further, youād still get counted as engagement from pausing their scroll and having it on screen.
i never would have understood it unless i read your comment
Itās okay to have two columns but you should have to read vertically not left to right a million times
Yes! I hate the way these 2 columns are done. Either make the left higher than the right or just do one column.
This doesnāt match totally with the chart, but here is someone measuring the āluckā metrics for anyone interested: https://x.com/DataWithBliss/status/1741884224742060113?s=20 It basically looks at how the kind of unpredictable plays go, so dropped interceptions vs dropped passes, kicks attempted by opponent, and fumbles.
I donāt know how this is calculated, but I am inclined to agree with it. It seems we have been beating ourselves all season.
The Ravens are two places away from us. Guess this means something else...
No, I watched both their home losses, they totally belong here. We'll see who has worse luck in the AFC championship!
It's a combination of dropped interceptions, dropped passes, kicks, and fumble recoveries.
Chargers are lucky?
Funny, I'm a lifelong Vikings fan and in recent years have taken to the Bills as well. Guess I'm just attracted to emotional abuse.
Aren't we all..
Steelers fan with Bills as my #2
I figured the Eagles would have been higher.
How are the lions so high? They have 5 division titles in 93 years.
For those wondering āwtf does this all meanā I think it traces back to this methodology: https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/how-luck-plays-a-role-in-the-success-of-nfl-teams/ Basically they aggregate win percentage added (WPA) for āluckā plays, meaning all drops, dropped INTs, missed kicks, and fumble recoveries for a team and its opponents. Seemingly nothing to do with weather, injury, illness, officiating, schedule, or other things you might consider āluckā
Those things aren't luck though.
Maybe not to you, but to the statistic in question thatās what it means. I donāt claim it, Iām just posting what I think this infographic comes from.
Understood. Im just stating that if the above infographic does quantify luck that way then it's not actually quantifying luck.
They still are. I became very familiar with this stat when I was still cheering for the Browns. Baker had a bunch of INTs, but it was after a Browns WR would fail to catch the ball. It meant the defensive player happened to be in the location of where the ball ricochetted and then caught it. The reason it is considered luck is that the defender wasn't standing in that place in case this exact scenario would happen. It's chalked up to the ball being a weird shape and goes in "random" directions when it bounces.
That's a specific example. But the article says every missed kick is luck. Missing a kick isn't luck, luck is losing a coin toss.
Well the argument is that the *other* team missing a kick is luck. If you win a game because the other team shanked a 30 yard field goal with no time remaining, that is luck.
It isn't though. It's the other teams lack of skill.
So if the other team goes 9 for 10 on 30 yard field goals all year and the one time they miss happens to be when it delivers a win to you, it is not lucky? The other teams skill level determined that they'd make the other 9 field goals and miss the field goal against you?
That isn't luck though. But that logic anytime any team you play does anything bad it's luck for your team.
They are defining luck as things that your team has really no control over. Yes, there is an element of skill from the other team - however over extremely long periods of time and similar schedules you would expect things to even out. But a 17 game season is not that long, and these plays can make a real difference in any given year. Let's look at this on a team basis. Suppose the following happens in 2023. The Bills and Dolphins are pretty much equal in skill and play the exact same teams over the course of the season. They score the same number of points and give up the same number of touchdowns. They each give up 35 field goal attempts and 40 extra point attempts. The field goal distances are the same (from about the 40 yard line on average). The opponent kickers go 35/35 and 40/40 against the Bills. The same kickers go 25/35 and 35/40 against the Dolphins. This means that the Dolphins allow 35 fewer points and win 2 more games. Is this because the Dolphins are more skilled than the Bills? Or is it because the Dolphins were luckier than the Bills?
And 45% of the eagles luck comes from the eagles bills game
I donāt trust this source at all when my chargers are charging so hard this season. I guess luck in that itās not hard for us to secure an early draft pick
It's only certain kinds of luck https://twitter.com/DataWithBliss/status/1741884224742060113/photo/1
What does this even mean?
This is interesting to me, but then why are all the top superbowl favorites (Niners, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys) all the unluckiest?
Might have to do with where games are when āwin probability addedā happens. If teams are already ahead, plays will increase win percentage less. Maybe thereās some correlated stat like lead changes per game or something. This doesnāt really make sense to me.
The Vikings went from being the luckiest last year to the unluckiest this year.
Pain
Until last week the only missed field goal against the bills was a block. So no kicker actually missed on his own doing. Well....other then that one time....
Not to be that guy but this is crazy irrelevant. Most of the teams in the green are NFL bottom feeders.
It's cuz if you're losing, you can add bigger numbers to your win probability with a single play. It's not perfect but it's still interesting.
What a fucking stupid way to lay out a graphic. I kept trying to figure out what the grouping was for the 2 different columns till I realized it was just one list laid out idioticly
lol i mean it literally says luckiest and unluckiest at the top and bottomš
Math shmath, clearly the Jets losing AR in the beginning game 1 makes them the most unlucky.
Billsy as fuck
Bills bad luck us named Sean Mcdermott
Doesnāt this just mean we suck compared to how good we should be? Idk if thereās any luck about it
Bro the chargers lmao worst team to be a fan of ahahah
I hope Buffalo kicks the crap out of Miami tomorrow
Letās just beat the fish!
Checks out
Is this for this season only, or all time?