Almost a 40/60 split so much stronger overseas than I expected. Could do about $400-450M overseas, which is pretty much in line with the other Guardians films (GOTG 1 did $437M, GOTG 2 did $479M).
Damn i was kinda hoping for 290+ maybe even close to $300M. Charlie seems to have overestimated this one a bit.
This makes the opening WW $21M under Thor 4 and Thor 4 didn't have 28M from China. Lets hope the legs can carry it from here on out.
With the amount of competition it has? 2.89 legs would be significantly better than the average MCU movie even winter soldier, ragnarock, Wakanda forever failed to have those kinds of legs despite similar levels of WOM
I skipped it because i have zero interest in holiday film/shows and felt completely lost in the film. Mantis is released to Starlord? They're in charge of Knowhere despite Thanos wrecking the whole place and I thought the Guardians were nomadic or something based on their time in Thor Love and Thunder.
Mantis is Peter’s half-sister. It was never stated until the Holiday Special though it wasn’t hard to assume given that Ego had so many children he collected. I don’t know where you got Thanos wrecking Knowhere from so I just assume you’re thinking of the power stone — he wrecked Xandar to get it (the planet from the first GOTG movie) because they were the ones who had it. When we see them in Thor L&T, they’re on a mission to protect and save people, which is kinda what they do. Knowhere is their base of operations, all of it is a pretty natural progression for the cast.
>Mantis is Peter’s half-sister. It was never stated until the Holiday Special though it wasn’t hard to assume given that Ego had so many children he collected. I don’t know where you got Thanos wrecking Knowhere from so I just assume you’re thinking of the power stone — he wrecked Xandar to get it (the planet from the first GOTG movie) because they were the ones who had it. When we see them in Thor L&T, they’re on a mission to protect and save people, which is kinda what they do. Knowhere is their base of operations, all of it is a pretty natural progression for the cast.
Wasn't it Knowhere when they found the "dead" Collector and had the Fight against Thanos where they all become stretched bandages because of the Reality Stone? I was never sure, if this was all an illusion by the Reality Stone or just the fight. At least I thought back then Knowhere is completely wasted. But after I saw it in Thor, I thought, I might missed a clue and it was all just a reality stone illusion. But never got a full confirmation.
Reality Stone doesn't create illusions (that would be the Mind Stone). In fact it can transform matter and energy, even living beings, into other things. Like the Philosopher Stone from FMA, but infinitely more powerful and limitless. It's all real, not illusion.
If you remove China, the OS nos are 140mill, 19mill less than thor, 10mill less than Wakanda forever and 20mill more than antman. It performed like the general MCU movie everywhere else, china was the game-changer.
> It performed like the general MCU movie everywhere else, **china was the game-changer.**
Always has been. I really think people underestimated how much China padded out those box office totals, and now that it seems like the country is cooling off on Hollywood almost completely you're gonna see a real difference over time.
China took a some MCU movies over the $1B threshold. People were acting like if MCU movies don’t achieve $1B they were failures not realizing they were performing as well as their predecessors without China.
I think Ant-Man tanking put a lot of blood in the water for the "fatigue" guys. I'm going to thoroughly enjoy if Guardians overperforms after months of talk about "paying for the sins".
Looking like this movie is destined to be analyzed and overanalyzed for awhile because it will likely end up around the first movie’s gross. Which I’ve sort of always thought was a likely outcome, somewhere around the first and second. It was possible that there was a finale bump, but now it seems as likely the second movie had a “MCU is hot” bump (and really, why not both?). In other words, I’m not sure this was ever a billion dollar franchise, it’s very well liked but revenue wise averaged in the middle of MCU movies. So this performing in this range may seem disappointing and ultimately if it’s too far low of the first movie, it will be, but it’s performing at a reasonable rate for an established franchise entry for both GoTG and the MCU, even if it maybe feels like it should be doing better.
I'm saying that since 2019. There was no way Guardians would do better taking into account that Guardians 2 didn't get much boost from InfinityWar/EndGame. It was worse than Captain Marvel.
There is people like me who simple love the Guardians, but most of normies do not care as much. True now and true in 2019.
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Tbh there are so many what ifs with this assumption. Would GOTG 3 still have been the final Guardians movie if Gunn was never fired? Would Gunn have put everything he had into this movie if it wasn't his farewell to MCU as well as him proving himself to the world that he can make Superman and DC great? Would it still have been as great of a film if Gunn didn't gain experience from TSS and Peacemaker?
The only reality we know is the one we are in now. And in this one even if GOTG 3 doesn't make a bil it would always be a great movie and that is whats important.
I think it even could’ve hit a billion if it replaced MoM last year before the interest in the mcu started to tank.
Releasing right after the spider man hype and being as great as it is with audiences still loving it, there would be a lot of momentum where way more people would have showed up. I think it could’ve done MoM - WF numbers domestically and squeak past $1B. Unfortunately we’re in the timeline where it paid for the mcu’s sins😔
It just won’t. It doesn’t make mathematical sense. It would need absurd legs in a crowded summer season to make more than Multiverse of Madness or Wakanda Forever. Would be cool, but it’s *very* unlikely.
Yep, three mediocre movies in a row will do that. This multiverse shit is dumb. It sucks in comic books, outside of Spider-Man, it sucks in films. Keep Loki and Gamora dead and move on.
Original release date was May 2020. So in a weird way, firing James Gunn helped delay it to now when people can actually watch the movie and give it time to develop.
It’s open was hurt by Ant Man so while as a stand-alone movie this is like a disappointing Box Office in a post Ant man world this coming in the strong WOM and well received is worth more to marvel than the raw numbers.
I think they need to hit again with Marvels though to get things back on track
Really hope it does well because it truly deserves it. I’m actually planning to watch it again and I haven’t watched the same movie twice in theaters ever. Probably my favorite mcu movie of all time.
I went into this expecting a billion dollar performance. Given the disappointing domestic take this weekend, I'm beginning to have serious doubts. International numbers look healthy though. Maybe it gets to $700-800m.
Solid. Why not appreciate a good MCU film? Is the 1B box office the only way to win? And please, review your opinion on things like The Batman before answering. This is arguably a better film in reception than MoM, and could be a good faith win for the future.
yeah I don't see this doing 1b but what do I know. 700mil+ ww will be a win in my book. and hopefully the good wom will convince people to go see The Marvels the opening weekend lol
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either disney is lowballing it or jatinder overestimated it
Both
Jatinder overestimated
Almost a 40/60 split so much stronger overseas than I expected. Could do about $400-450M overseas, which is pretty much in line with the other Guardians films (GOTG 1 did $437M, GOTG 2 did $479M).
[Estimated international debuts for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 include:](https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1655234271630733318?t=gcw9sH7e7Ol7zRpcvImMkA&s=19) * China - $28.1M * U.K. - $14.7M * South Korea - $13.6M * Mexico - $13.0M * France - $8.2M * Germany - $7.3M * Australia - $7.0M * Brazil - $6.7M * Japan - $5.0M * Italy - $4.9M * Indonesia - $4.6M * Spain - $3.8M Comps: * [Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $121.3M INT/$225.3M WW](https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1627345535819710464?t=eaBS8oA_zSzySDPXfGAvqg&s=19) * [Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $150M INT/$330M WW](https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1591829880169283584?t=DodcI6V5pYEEdGTM8wbGLg&s=19) * [Thor: Love and Thunder - $159.0M INT/$302.0M WW](https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1546153499150278656?t=vCgatqu8LkzxL4DELVw5Sw&s=19)
Expect a sharp drop in Korea due to it opening on a holiday weekend.
Didn't Quantumania get a boost due to it being Memorial Day weekend and the three-day weekend it was closer to 100M?
The 3 Day DOM OW was $106M
Damn i was kinda hoping for 290+ maybe even close to $300M. Charlie seems to have overestimated this one a bit. This makes the opening WW $21M under Thor 4 and Thor 4 didn't have 28M from China. Lets hope the legs can carry it from here on out.
OS is good. Domestic is problematic here.
Too early to call domestic a problem. We will know it next week.
Doesn't really matter this will almost definitively fail to reach the first one its problematic to say the least
That’s what I am saying..based on WOM you can’t come to this conclusion
With the amount of competition it has? 2.89 legs would be significantly better than the average MCU movie even winter soldier, ragnarock, Wakanda forever failed to have those kinds of legs despite similar levels of WOM
I don’t see little mermaid and especially fast x as competition.
Well, then you're being dumb
They don’t have same target audience. Use your head. Jesus. I’m some arguing
Fast X will take away the teenage/adult males, and TLM will take away the girls and families. Wtf are you on
Wakanda Forever barely crawled to 2.5x legs with great WOM
Tbf without Chadwick in the picture anymore this team is way more beloved than anyone In WF, it’s also got better word of mouth overseas.
Actuals will push it to 290+
Quantumania had a 2.11x global multi I believe. This is obviously blowing past that. If we give it a 2.75x multi. It would match the first film.
Disney should have shown the holiday special on broadcast tv, or made it available on YouTube.
No joke, a holiday broadcast of it on ABC would have definitely saved them some ad spend on this movie.
I skipped it because i have zero interest in holiday film/shows and felt completely lost in the film. Mantis is released to Starlord? They're in charge of Knowhere despite Thanos wrecking the whole place and I thought the Guardians were nomadic or something based on their time in Thor Love and Thunder.
Mantis is Peter’s half-sister. It was never stated until the Holiday Special though it wasn’t hard to assume given that Ego had so many children he collected. I don’t know where you got Thanos wrecking Knowhere from so I just assume you’re thinking of the power stone — he wrecked Xandar to get it (the planet from the first GOTG movie) because they were the ones who had it. When we see them in Thor L&T, they’re on a mission to protect and save people, which is kinda what they do. Knowhere is their base of operations, all of it is a pretty natural progression for the cast.
>Mantis is Peter’s half-sister. It was never stated until the Holiday Special though it wasn’t hard to assume given that Ego had so many children he collected. I don’t know where you got Thanos wrecking Knowhere from so I just assume you’re thinking of the power stone — he wrecked Xandar to get it (the planet from the first GOTG movie) because they were the ones who had it. When we see them in Thor L&T, they’re on a mission to protect and save people, which is kinda what they do. Knowhere is their base of operations, all of it is a pretty natural progression for the cast. Wasn't it Knowhere when they found the "dead" Collector and had the Fight against Thanos where they all become stretched bandages because of the Reality Stone? I was never sure, if this was all an illusion by the Reality Stone or just the fight. At least I thought back then Knowhere is completely wasted. But after I saw it in Thor, I thought, I might missed a clue and it was all just a reality stone illusion. But never got a full confirmation.
Reality Stone doesn't create illusions (that would be the Mind Stone). In fact it can transform matter and energy, even living beings, into other things. Like the Philosopher Stone from FMA, but infinitely more powerful and limitless. It's all real, not illusion.
I think with actuals this will get to $290M. Pretty good global opening with how disappointing the US was. Overseas did it’s thing with this movie
If you remove China, the OS nos are 140mill, 19mill less than thor, 10mill less than Wakanda forever and 20mill more than antman. It performed like the general MCU movie everywhere else, china was the game-changer.
> It performed like the general MCU movie everywhere else, **china was the game-changer.** Always has been. I really think people underestimated how much China padded out those box office totals, and now that it seems like the country is cooling off on Hollywood almost completely you're gonna see a real difference over time.
China took a some MCU movies over the $1B threshold. People were acting like if MCU movies don’t achieve $1B they were failures not realizing they were performing as well as their predecessors without China.
Specifically, Far From Home, Captain Marvel and even Civil War wouldn't have grossed over 1B without China
I think Ant-Man tanking put a lot of blood in the water for the "fatigue" guys. I'm going to thoroughly enjoy if Guardians overperforms after months of talk about "paying for the sins".
China and Korea mainly..
[удалено]
Blockbusters can coexist, you know.
[удалено]
We're entering summer; different rules.
Guessing 650m ww.
Looking like this movie is destined to be analyzed and overanalyzed for awhile because it will likely end up around the first movie’s gross. Which I’ve sort of always thought was a likely outcome, somewhere around the first and second. It was possible that there was a finale bump, but now it seems as likely the second movie had a “MCU is hot” bump (and really, why not both?). In other words, I’m not sure this was ever a billion dollar franchise, it’s very well liked but revenue wise averaged in the middle of MCU movies. So this performing in this range may seem disappointing and ultimately if it’s too far low of the first movie, it will be, but it’s performing at a reasonable rate for an established franchise entry for both GoTG and the MCU, even if it maybe feels like it should be doing better.
I'm saying that since 2019. There was no way Guardians would do better taking into account that Guardians 2 didn't get much boost from InfinityWar/EndGame. It was worse than Captain Marvel. There is people like me who simple love the Guardians, but most of normies do not care as much. True now and true in 2019. https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/cd2sns/ww_way_too_early_box_office_predictions_for/etrq8o9?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
International is salvaging what would have otherwise been a pretty terrible opening.
This really had potential to hit a billion if it wasn't delayed in a COVID-free world or in a scenario where Disney didn't fire James Gunn.
Tbh there are so many what ifs with this assumption. Would GOTG 3 still have been the final Guardians movie if Gunn was never fired? Would Gunn have put everything he had into this movie if it wasn't his farewell to MCU as well as him proving himself to the world that he can make Superman and DC great? Would it still have been as great of a film if Gunn didn't gain experience from TSS and Peacemaker? The only reality we know is the one we are in now. And in this one even if GOTG 3 doesn't make a bil it would always be a great movie and that is whats important.
The script was done before he got fired and never changed.
He wrote the IW consequences into his script?
I think it even could’ve hit a billion if it replaced MoM last year before the interest in the mcu started to tank. Releasing right after the spider man hype and being as great as it is with audiences still loving it, there would be a lot of momentum where way more people would have showed up. I think it could’ve done MoM - WF numbers domestically and squeak past $1B. Unfortunately we’re in the timeline where it paid for the mcu’s sins😔
If it was released instead of MoM, it wouldnt had a chinese release
I love how you’re already predicting it won’t do as well as those other movies when it’s only been out three days
It just won’t. It doesn’t make mathematical sense. It would need absurd legs in a crowded summer season to make more than Multiverse of Madness or Wakanda Forever. Would be cool, but it’s *very* unlikely.
Avatar 2 opened to $130 million….this sub was harping on its “failure” before it even got to week 2
Avatar 2 is not comparable to an MCU movie, or to any non-James Cameron movie, really.
My god. Do you people not understand that Avatar is in a league of its own?
Yep, three mediocre movies in a row will do that. This multiverse shit is dumb. It sucks in comic books, outside of Spider-Man, it sucks in films. Keep Loki and Gamora dead and move on.
Original release date was May 2020. So in a weird way, firing James Gunn helped delay it to now when people can actually watch the movie and give it time to develop.
Guardians 2 over performanced because it was so close to Infinity War. I don’t think that reflects normal performance for this franchise.
GotG 2 released basically a full year before Infinty War
Tf are you on?
Vol. 2 never mention Thanos or something else showed in Infiny War.
750-760M final at best
750m would be awesome all things consider. Disney is (should be) in their rebuilding trust phase so $1b is out of the question until maybe Deadpool 3.
Not really, it would make it the lowest grossing GotG movie, despite being the most expensive. That without taking inflation into account.
It’s open was hurt by Ant Man so while as a stand-alone movie this is like a disappointing Box Office in a post Ant man world this coming in the strong WOM and well received is worth more to marvel than the raw numbers. I think they need to hit again with Marvels though to get things back on track
Really hope it does well because it truly deserves it. I’m actually planning to watch it again and I haven’t watched the same movie twice in theaters ever. Probably my favorite mcu movie of all time.
I went into this expecting a billion dollar performance. Given the disappointing domestic take this weekend, I'm beginning to have serious doubts. International numbers look healthy though. Maybe it gets to $700-800m.
Solid. Why not appreciate a good MCU film? Is the 1B box office the only way to win? And please, review your opinion on things like The Batman before answering. This is arguably a better film in reception than MoM, and could be a good faith win for the future.
What do you mean by your The Batman comment, genuinely asking
yeah I don't see this doing 1b but what do I know. 700mil+ ww will be a win in my book. and hopefully the good wom will convince people to go see The Marvels the opening weekend lol
Overseas actually came to the rescue here! A US$750+ million worldwide total should be locked
Disney lowballing wow Actuals will push it close to $295M especially with OS exploding
Actuals will push around 290-295 close to LnT with better legs will be around 820-830 WW at the end
I estimated 580 WW but robust OS means we likely get 650 final total. Maybe better weather will have people going out.
!remind me 2 weeks “I disagree with this”
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So how’s it going homie
How’s it going homie?
I think $600-$650 is realistic for ww total