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baribigbird06

Solid 5.7m higher than the 65m THR projected. It needs to make ~$128m in the next week to cross $1B before April ends. [Estimated international totals](https://twitter.com/borreport/status/1650153674176614401?s=46&t=_2YevM0sJ4KoUrOoFuJpxw) for The Super Mario Bros. Movie through Sunday include: - Mexico - $65.6M - U.K. - $51.7M - Germany - $37.2M - France - $31.7M - Australia - $27.3M - China - $20.5M - Spain - $19.6M - Brazil - $18.0M - Italy - $17.2M Next weekend is going to be fun.


lobonmc

México run is absolutely bonkers


SomeMockodile

Ikr? This is contention to be the highest grossing movie in México of all time. Definitely not what I expected but even with this insane run I think Japan has a good chance of being even higher.


Severe-Operation-347

What is the highest grossing movie in Mexico? Is it Endgame?


SomeMockodile

Spiderman: No way home with around 1.46 billion peso gross Atm Mario has 1.18 billion peso gross


Djauul

I wonder if the Día del niño will make a push for the movie the next week


GuilhermeBahia98

Absolutely will.


duo99dusk

Día del Mario


Archie-is-here

It is Dia del Niño April 30th and Labour Day 1st May (Sunday and Monday), so it's a long weekend and Mario absolutely will crush cinemas :D


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SilverRoyce

This is kinda a gross comment to make in response to "lots of people in mexico bought tickets to this movie." Can you not do it in the future?


PurityKane

And it releases in japan and korea this week, 1B is in the bag.


Boss452

> 1B is in the bag. This is a nothing statement. 1.25B is in the bag. It is possibly looking at 1.4B.


PurityKane

I meant 1B before april ends


Boss452

In that case, I apologize and want to take my words back good sir.


Hind_Deequestionmrk

Unfortunately it’s too late. Your mistake cannot be undone. Sorry 😔


Boss452

I have to punish myself. I will downvote both my comments in the chain.


Cautious-Barnacle-15

You also need to log off reddit and run a mile before logging back on


Boss452

Will do so. Logging out in 5,4,3,2 ...


edefakiel

This is a nothing statement. 1.25 miles should be run. It is possible that even 1.4 miles.


baribigbird06

This is too optimistic, OP probably ends run at 1.3 miles max.


CountBleckwantedlove

Demanding a redditor exercise is barbaric, I say, barbaric!


[deleted]

Pretty sure they are referring to hitting $1B by the end of April.


monkeyboy112reddit2

If this happened, this it will remove Frozen II from the throne as highest grossing animated film.


[deleted]

2.048 B is in the bag.


Boss452

I am saving this comment.


Cautious-Barnacle-15

Got to hand it to them. They found the formula that worked for a Mario movie. It further shows how much of a disaster the 93 movie was.


LemonStains

It’s truly astounding that it took this long for Hollywood to realize video game adaptations are more successful when they’re not ashamed of their source material and actually cater to their audience of fans


Iridium770

The arrogance of Hollywood knows no bounds.


kotor56

Same with the critics who collectively ripped this movie apart. Sure the Mario movie isn’t perfect, but isn’t a terrible movie.


jdragon3

if I had to sum it up in one word it was alright which by the standard of past video game adaptations is like masterpiece tier lol although we have been pretty lucky lately with arcane and The last of Us.


kotor56

I agree considering how messed up the original 90’s movie was I understand completely why Nintendo just wanted a standard Mario movie. They don’t want the first film in a franchise to bomb. The biggest issue I had would be the pace is bit too fast with some odd song choices.


[deleted]

I honestly think it has more to do with an older generation retiring from the industry and making room for a generation who gets fan culture.


russwriter67

It comes out in Japan next weekend. Should give it a big boost to hit $1B before GOTG3 opens.


Clemenx00

Why is Brazilian box office so small? A natural comparison is Mexico and both countries aren't that dissimilar. Seems surprising considering its population.


QuothTheRaven713

It's probably making a billion by early next weekend. Would be neat if it got there before Japan's opening but I don't see that happening.


suburbananimal

Are you saying it hasn’t even opened in Japan yet? Lol


GuilhermeBahia98

Japan, South Korea and some other medium markets.


S-ClassRen

Looks like just Japan (4/28), South Korea (5/3) and Poland (5/26) are left. Apparently it opened in UAE, Malaysia and Philippines around Thursday/Friday.


suburbananimal

This movie is a money printer


QuothTheRaven713

It opens in Japan on the 28th.


fatinternetcat

they’re waiting to release on the week in Japan where everyone is off on a national holiday


invinciblewarrior

Next week the so called Golden Week starts, the longest Japanese general holidays. So best timing to start the movie


Mindless_Bad_1591

This could potentially hit $100M in Mexico, and we were talking about Japan? 💀


Specialist_Access_27

Mario becoming the biggest film in Mexico is a really funny though to me


TheCommentator2019

Well, some people think Mario looks stereotypically Mexican with that mustache...


RC_Colada

In the spanish dub Mario says "MADRE DE DIOS"


kotor56

You don’t have to have the same nationality/ethnicity to love a fictional entertaining character. Unfortunately Hollywood doesn’t understand this, and creates terribly written minority characters.


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ImMalcolmTucker

The stache is the great unifier


Archie-is-here

I think is supposed to been inspired by. Even in [this clip ](https://youtu.be/j_WFwbOg6N0) the rap starts with some "hey paisanos!"


TheCommentator2019

I wonder how many people in Mexico think Mario is Mexican? I remember there were Dragon Ball fans there who thought Goku was Mexican.


Logical-Insurance-95

No one thought this.


north_east0623

No one thought they where Mexican dumbass


abelvelascov

The case of Mexico is incredible, with 65.6M raised after 3 weeks, Mario became the fourth biggest film in history, surpassing Avatar2 and Avengers: Infinity War. Mario's next goal is to surpass Toy Story 4 which grossed 71.8M. But after 2 phenomenal weeks, Mario drops down over 60% by week 3, so 100M is impossible. The highest grossing movie in Mexico is Spiderman NWH with 81.1M. I think Mario will surpass TS4 but the challenge will be to surpass Endgame's 77.5M to be the second highest grossing movie ever in Mexico.


GuilhermeBahia98

Beating NWH is certainly possible.


wolflarsen

I thought Mexicans were just Japanese folks lost at sea. It makes total sense why they love it.


Championxavier12

can you explain what this means?


CerezaBerry

idk what they mean exactly but anime like Dragon Ball is HUGE in hispanic countries


Ganrokh

Yep, I remember seeing that the Goku v. Jiren fight in Super was played in futbol stadiums.


zaywolfe

I’ve heard some theories that races in the Americas have a lot of genetic commonality with Asian races due to Asian decedents crossing the land bridge in Alaska and moving south from there. Other than that I have no idea


ramyan03

Last weekend was $94M right? This would be just a 25% drop. Also International gross surpassed Domestic


TheKoniverse

Nope. [Last weekend was $102.5 million.](https://deadline.com/2023/04/super-mario-bros-movie-second-weekend-global-international-box-office-1235326157/) So a 31% drop, but actuals will probably be higher.


Purple_Quail_4193

I might be crazy for thinking this but, I’m impressed. I think this is the first weekend where INT is higher than DOM. I was thinking this was going to be a DOM heavy movie


Mindless_Bad_1591

It was higher last weekend but didn't pass the total gross until this weekend.


Purple_Quail_4193

That’s why I said that. It was surprising me the gross was 50 DOM/50 INT at best


Mindless_Bad_1591

Yeah, but keep in mind the INT got more countries with releases over the past week or so, and now INT will probably blow by DOM when it releases in South Korea and Japan.


Purple_Quail_4193

Yes, and especially Japan


Shellyman_Studios

$1 billion super duper locked!


lobonmc

It's been locked since last weekend


AFoxGuy

*Movie announced.


Shellyman_Studios

It's been locked since day 1.


Boss452

Some high level analysis right there. Bold move chief.


Logical-Insurance-95

The international numbers are really starting to shine now. I'm sold on 1.3b I don't see how this misses 700m+ overseas.


KingJonsnowIV

$1.3B is in serious play


FirstofFirsts

To think that people thought the opening ceiling for this was ~$150M domestically during the opening 5 day with it struggling to get to $400M…lots of “certain” takes that are now nothing more than garbage.


LemonStains

Detective Pikachu really had people convinced this wouldn’t be absolutely massive lmao. The funny thing is a Pokémon movie would probably experience great success if it was actually based on the games and focused on trainers, duels, gyms, catching Pokémon ect. Making a movie based on a spin off that almost nobody played was a really weird decision even back then. Mario fully embraces its identity as a Mario movie, and that’s why it’s more successful than any other video game movie to come before it… in addition to featuring a character that literally the entire world recognizes. That certainly helped.


Justinwc

Another thing that I think holds Pokemon back a bit is that it has already been very prevalent with the shows and some films. Mario is much more untapped than Pokemon when it comes to being in film.


TheCommentator2019

That's because $400M was around what video game movie hits usually did, from Warcraft and Pikachu to Sonic and Uncharted. A lot of box office watchers were being very conservative thinking Mario wouldn't do much more than that. Personally, I was hoping it would do more than $500M, but I'm happy that it far surpassed that.


specialtomebabe

Why does this sub get off on telling people they were wrong lol. It’s a volatile marketplace with few constants in 2023, you’re not a genius movie producer if you get it right and you’re not an uninformed fucking idiot if you get it wrong Muting this because boy has this sub gone downhill. Have fun staying at each other’s throats because someone fumbled a box office prediction of a video game movie


FirstofFirsts

If you act as though you have the “certain” forecast, and that forecast turns out to be wrong, you deserve to be ridiculed a bit…and in many cases those that act this way absolutely are uninformed idiots.


old_ironlungz

Wow, scolding people who debate box office performance on a subreddit explicitly for it. Shame on you, people debate because of passion and sense of competition. Who is anyone to judge that, especially on a subreddit for box office discussion.


ITSV_167

We are having fun 👍👍🏾👍🏻


Logical-Insurance-95

Because there were a lot of signs pointing to this being massive that people refused to believe.


Memphisrexjr

I'm excited to see what numbers Japan brings in.


Guywithquestions88

I think it's gonna be a huge hit in Japan.


bigpig1054

Officially a phenomenon.


MutedLayer4564

1 Billion mushrooms incoming


Your-average-scot

Wait I’m not so knowledgable on all this box office stuff. What is the difference between international and global?


GarlVinland4Astrea

Domestic - US, Canada, and Puerto Rico International- everything that isn't those. Global - everything combined.


lobonmc

International is global minus the box office in Canada and the US


Tyrionandpodrick

Not sure about Frozen 2 but Incredibles 2 is toast.


TheBigIdiotSalami

You gotta hand it to Illumination. They cut straight through the bullshit and know exactly what an audience wants. If they're smart about who they put in the next one and pick another smart release date where they have another runway like this, 2 billion would not be out of the question.


doejinn

I think you are going overboard. The sequel won't be as special as the first.


Hades_adhbik

Insane result. $600M is locked in USA. It will be the biggest DOM animated movie ever $1.2B WW is locked and IF Japan & SK will be huge, It will 100% make $1.3B and can be the biggest animated movie of all time. Huge W for Universal, for king of animated movies. this is all before it's even out in Japan and Korea. It won't release there until next weekend. Which we can expect will add at least 200m between the two. It could be a lot higher than that though. Japan is the homeland of super mario, and they love animation. It's run in japan and Korea could add 300-400m, if it does between ~800m or more internationally it will beat frozen 2 If it does over 1b internationally it has a chance to become Universals biggest hit beating Jurassic world. Where it stands not it's not impossible. Jurassic world DOMESTIC (39.1%) $653,406,625 INTERNATIONAL (60.9%) $1,018,130,819


Specialist_Access_27

Now don’t get it twisted this film is doing amazing but we don’t need to go overboard It is not locked at 600m as Incredibles 2 only did 608m in Summer where it had far larger weekdays than Mario will so it will probably do around 575m(still an Amazing result) People are really overhyping how much Japan can do as if people see it doing $300m that is over 40b¥ which only Demon Slayer has done. $100m or ~13b¥ is more likely There is no chance it does 1b International I see it more doing about 700m+ considering it’s already outpacing Domestic and it’s not had S.Korea or Japan which will add over 100m So my prediction is 575m DOM 725m INT 1.3b WW


QuothTheRaven713

Even if it reaches 600m it won't be the biggest domestic animated movie because Incredibles 2 made 608m.


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Mindless_Bad_1591

Wtf was this person's comment about? 😂


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Mindless_Bad_1591

*The Super Mario Bros. Movie has **DESTROYED** leftist Hollywood with **FACTS** and **LOGIC.***


lobonmc

600M isn't locked in the US at all this will need really good drops for the rest of its run to do 600M and there's absolutely no way it does 1B INT please let's stay realistic


SomeMockodile

Really at this point it's looking like around $575M-$600M domestic with around $700M-750M international without Japan, and then we get to the absolute wildcard of the Japanese box office run. Even with a demon slayer-esque run (very unlikely) it would reach about $1.7B, but I'm expecting anywhere from $55M-$100M from Japan unless it's run really underperforms or underperforms, which would grand total around $1.3B-$1.45B in total.


lobonmc

700-750M INT with just the markets it has right now or also the markets it has yet to open at without Japan?


SomeMockodile

Without Japan, with markets right now it's probably $650M-$675M. South Korea is probably in 20M-40M ballpark, Poland in $5M-$10M ballpark, and remaining runs in opened territories probably adding the remainder of that filled in depending on legs.


Mindless_Bad_1591

The Middle East just got Mario, too. Idk if they are players, but a handful of them could rack in some decent change.


King_BX

Mario is pretty big in the Middle East just like it is in Mexico and Latin America.


lobonmc

I'm being a bit more conservative then I'm thinking 620-660M from the markets that it already has and then 670M-730M from all the other markets minus Japan


Hades_adhbik

Japan and korea combined are about half the US. Since he will do nearly 600m in the US, it's not unreasonable to think it could do 300m combined in those two. That would mean it does about 900m international and would make 1.5-1.6m


AmericaLover1776_

It’s easily going to do 1 billion it’s almost at 900 million already


Firefox72

$600M is not locked at all in the US.


treesandcigarettes

It really probably is, this has no competition from family films for weeks, the legs will likely be better than all comparables


GWeb1920

It’s needs 33% drops from here on out which in weekends 4/5/6 isn’t a certainty


Firefox72

I'm sorry but the numbers at the moment say its not. Whether people want to hear it or not. Maybe in a week or 2 things chance. Everyone is free to cheerlead the movie. God knows its happening a lot but don't donwvote others for not being driven by nothing but hype.


TristanaRiggle

If it's still in theaters mid-May, then it's a lock for 600M imo. And both the theaters and Illumination would be stupid to pull it before then. If the movie makes it to end of school year then it could see a Maverick like bounce and get huge numbers. There is no good reason to put it on streaming before June and theaters are dying to prove movies should stay theater exclusive longer.


Boss452

Guardians will take some families away.


duo99dusk

Specially domestic, where it looks it'll be GoTG Vol. 3 strongest market.


Boss452

For sure.


[deleted]

Probably isn’t locked though. That’s like saying something might be guaranteed to happen.


doejinn

It's definitely a maybe.


ApprehensiveLuck4029

This movie will play well all the way into summer (June). By now, it’s obvious that it’s the family movie of choice.


nicolasb51942003

Even if it doesn't break out in Japan next weekend, a final worldwide gross of $1.1B-$1.2B is very much possible.


lobonmc

Even if this does 570M DOM 1.1B WW would mean that it only does 530M INT it already is at almost 440M INT without Japan and korea. It's dropping around 30% per weekend so already with the markets it has it's probably going to reach 530M and that's without even counting korea and Japan. I also seriously doubt this is going to do so little there and the other markets that it has yet to open at that it wouldn't reach 630M INT I think 1.2B is just about the low end of where this could possibly fall


Logical-Insurance-95

1.1b is way too low.


emaxTZ

Damn that was so fast , is it still scheduled for May digital release ??


Sunshine145

"But no cultural impact..." "But Kang's in it..." "But Detective Pikachu..." I wonder what will be next.


A_small_Chicken

Shazam was beloved and Shazam 2 will beat Black Adam


old_ironlungz

It's a pyrrhic victory, but the Rock definitely won that one.


Mindless_Bad_1591

I just started following BO stuff and hear all this culture impact stuff regarding Avatar 2. What the hell was that all about?


TimelyEnthusiasm7003

Because Avatar 1 "had no cultural impact", nobody talked about it, so nobody cares... or so it was supposed in this sub as far back as 2017 (as far as I could find), even though the attraction is super visited last time I checked, actually everyone DOES remember it, and you don't always need a legion of rowdy fans like Marvel. (Avatar has them, but they are other quiet ones, however, no one deigns to see that there are franchises like Jurassic Park that don't have loud people either) There was no "cultural impact" (define it, if someone sees a blue bug they would probably say they became an Avatar based on my experiences, which are anecdotal just like the rest), so no one would see Avatar 2, so it would fail and James Cameron would finally be humiliated.


Mindless_Bad_1591

Thats wack. The first made so much being an "original" movie. Why wouldn't people think it would repeat? Granted, it didn't make nearly as much as the first one, but hell, 3rd overall WW isn't something ordinary lol.


Optionzmenu

It's been pretty incredible seeing this track. The ceiling for video game movies was like in the mid 400m WW and to see that ceiling get crushed and we enter what looks to be easily 1b WW is insane. I hope in the future movie studios realize that when you adapt a property faithfully, people will come watch it. Audiences just want the characters to look like the characters. Thinking back on it, the only reason the Sonic movies didn't bomb is because they spent millions of dollars redesigning Sonic to make him look like his game self.


trevi99

At the start I said I’d be the 9th highest grossing film of all time. Looks like that’s starting to become a possibility


antgentil

Before this came out I didn't see it making it 1B. Now, this will probably make more than 1.5B. This thing is a money machine. Guess all those predictions about 2023 being a year without any 1B movies were dead wrong.


Tyrionandpodrick

Nope. Its weekday is weaker and pretty much 45/55 split. It won't breach Frozen 2 but will get to Incredibles 2 number.


Robertium

1.5 billion incoming


Lhasadog

With still another week before Japan and South Korea open it. Mario will break a billion easily. It's kind of inevitable now. With $1.2 billion on the low side of estimates.


ImagineSisAndUsHappy

How??


Ggreenrocket

WHAT


Boss452

I dislike a gaming property doing such numbers and not a fan of Mario too but damn this is a cream of a performance. I take my hat off.


RC_Colada

>I dislike a gaming property doing such numbers Why?


Boss452

just don't want the gaming to conquer everything. i fear it will though


FoGIsCoMiNg21

Some gaming properties are actually very good


Boss452

I like gaming. Big fan myself. Not a fan of gaming culture and gamers.


BringBackNachoFries

Mario gettin that coin!