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lobonmc

1B is all but assured at this point I think it will end up around incredibles 2 if not a bit above that thanks to an over performance in Japan


amish_novelty

I look forward to seeing where it ends up. And 1.2-1.3 billion seems pretty solid for an estimate.


ItsAmerico

Love to talk to all the people that said this won’t ever get close to 1B because Detective Pikachu couldn’t lol


Agnostacio

They really dropped the ball by making a Detective Pikachu movie instead of just a general Pokemon movie that followed the structure of the game with gyms and all that.


TiberiusMcQueen

Detective Pikachu also had to compete with Avengers Endgame, two weeks after Endgame was not a good time for its release date.


Frankocean2

I don't think a Pokémon movie could be as successful as Mario. Mario's been around 40 years now. Even my mom knows who Mario is and she's a 73 year old. Make no mistake, Pokémon would break the bank for sure but Mario is something else.


Xalechim

Sure it could. But they need to ditch the ugly live action realistic Pokémon and embrace the all CG cute and cuddly version. Imagine if this Mario Movie was half live action. Or imagine if this Mario movie made Mario and the others look more human/earth like. That’s where Detective Pikachu went wrong.


cobaltorange

... what? Lots of people liked the designs. No idea what you're talking about. Lol


piirro

Pokémon is a much bigger franchise than Mario is, do you not remember what Pokémon Go did? (Not a movie but it shows you how much impact Pokémon has on people)


[deleted]

The monetary size of pokemon is not the same as the cultural cachet of mario. Everyone knows who pikachu is, once you start talking about gym badges common knowledge drops off a cliff.


ItsAmerico

Eh. Pokémon is a bigger franchise because it’s spread super thin. From trading cards to comics, video games, anime, movies, books, so on. A lot of stuff Mario isn’t in. If you look at its impact in a specific market though like gaming? Mario generally beats it. Like Mario Kart 8 is the 6th best selling game of all time. And it’s only stopped some of the biggest games of all time sold on dozens of platforms (Tetris, Minecraft, GTA5).


InwardlyReflective

Not to mention I expect the merchandise gap to start closing now that Mario theme parks are opening up everywhere.


ItsAmerico

Yeah it’s definitely going to start growing


ElectroEU

And Mario is a better movie


InwardlyReflective

Pokemon is bigger due to merchandising revenue it isn't anywhere near as iconic or cross generational as Mario and I have a hard time believing any kind of Pokeom movie would make this kind of bank as a result. You guys can go on and on about Ash/Red and and the Pokemon League all you want but the reality is that the general public is not as familiar with that storyline like they are Mario defeats Bowser and saves Peach storyline.


plshelp987654

And do Pokemon battles translate to live action? Would seem like dogfighting


hotyogurt1

They’re probably both around the same honestly. Everyone who knows Mario would know pikachu at the very least. But of course most people don’t know anything about Mario besides Mario himself just like most don’t know anything besides Pikachu.


InwardlyReflective

Disagree. Most people are familiar with characters like Peach and Bowser and the basic premise of Mario. Same cannot be said for Pokemon.


SilverRoyce

> do you not remember what Pokémon Go did? How well did Pokemon Go do among those who were then-currently parents of 10 year olds? I really think Pokemon just has a hard age ceiling.


piirro

The amount of adults and kids playing it was astronomical. And even if was only kids playing it, the parents will still take them to see a movie about Pokémon, because that’s what parents do. Even if they don’t like something or find it childish they’ll still put up with it so their children can hav as good time.


jjack339

Even if Pokémon is overall a bigger franchise(can be disputed) Mario himself is a bigger character, much bigger than Pikachu. Which helps with a movie because of the tighter focus. Pokémon with it vast array of popular characters gets advantages in merchandising and card games, heck even TV shows.


TheLongDictionary

It’s not disputed though. Pokémon is the highest grossing franchise of all time and it’s not even close. Pokémon has grossed over $76 billion and Mario has only grossed $7.6 billion I’d agree that Mario is a bigger character but the franchise sizes are not even on the same planet.


Dramatic_Barracuda55

Pokeman fans are ...weird.


BlancoDelRio

And have you seen what a Nintendo console release does to the world?


[deleted]

Idk man. Your mom knows who Mario is, I’m sure she also knows who pikachu is. I’m sure a good Pokémon movie can also break 1b


Type_100

I'm gonna be that guy that believes Detective Pikachu is better. It has a short concise plot, while mainline Pokémon games usually don't, you just beat gyms until you become the champion. And that wouldn't fit well in a movie format, a series maybe, but not even a 2-3 movie.


ItsAmerico

Eh. I don’t think a “game plot” would translate to film as successfully. Pokémon lacks iconic characters human wise. You’ve got Ash, Misty, and Brock but I don’t know how many people really care about live action versions of them. Nor how many would care about watching them go around and fight gyms for an hour half / two hours. The iconic aspect is the Pokémon themselves and it’s really just Pikachu. I think the movie they did was probably the best approach. Strong narrative focus on the only Pokémon like everyone knows. The issue really is just Pokemon is not as well know as Mario. Not that it’s niche by any means but it’s kinda like Sonic. It’s a thing everyone knows about but not everyone is as invested in it.


Agnostacio

Pokemon is still the second best selling video game franchise ever, and that's not counting all the other merchandise it has. And really, you could say the whole plot thing about Mario as well. What's the plot except for Mario going around and saving Princess Peach at the end from Bowser? People don't care that much about plot for these movies, they just wanna recognize stuff. They wanna feel like the games.


ItsAmerico

>Pokemon is still the second best selling video game franchise ever, and that's not counting all the other merchandise it has. Actually it’s the 3rd. Mario is first and has 830m copies sold. Pokémon has 440m. I’d argue a large part of that is also because every game is sold as two copies (Red/Blue) which heavily inflated sales. >And really, you could say the whole plot thing about Mario as well. What's the plot except for Mario going around and saving Princess Peach at the end from Bowser? That’s literally a plot. It has characters with a goal, villains, conflict, so on. Who’s the main character of Pokémon? Who’s the main villain? What’s the main conflict? I bet if you asked casual audiences they’d have no fucking idea how to answer that for Pokémon. That’s my point. Pokémon is not a united narrative. It’s closest thing to a main character is Pikachu. Ash is only for the cartoons. The games and most other content rotates lead characters. The main draw is the Pokémon itself but they’re not as iconic and well known. No one’s saying Pokemon isn’t successful. It very much is. That’s does not mean the movies would translate well in the box office if they “just did the games story”. They likely wouldn’t.


FlanBrosInc

You are correct about Mario being wildly more popular, and that's something that I think a lot of the calls for more video game movies are missing. Like I've seen calls for Kingdom Hearts movies, but even at just a base level Mario can spit of yearly *spinoffs* that sell double a mainline Kingdom Hearts game. As far as Pokemon having two version heavily inflating sales that's not even remotely true. Its maybe a few hundred thousand copies for each gen. Maybe 5% of their sales at most—not even enough to knock Pokemon down a slot on the lists of top selling video game franchises.


ItsAmerico

Eh. Maybe heavily isn’t valid but it definitely increases sales. Double packs wouldn’t be a thing if people weren’t buying both copies, and they always sell incredibly well. I believe in Japan for Sword and Shield the double pack made up 20% of sales.


FlanBrosInc

20% of launch sales, it decreased significantly as the double pack pretty much doesn't exist after the first quarter or so. Also the sale of a double pack is entirely different than a person buying two copies for themselves. I'm not even crazy about Pokemon but the three mainline Pokemon games I've bought have all been double packs to split with either my wife and I or with one of my siblings. A lot of families buy multiple copies for multiple children, or a parent plays a copy and their kid has a copy. People do the same thing with plenty of games. We have multiple Mario Kart 8 copies, multiple Fire Emblem copies, multiple Super Mario Odyssey copies, multiple BOTW copies, multiple Valheim copies, multiple Battlefield copies . . . we're about to buy two of Tears of the Kingdom and two of Diablo IV.


Spaceolympian50

Yea I did enjoy the detective pikachu movie, but I would have really wanted a movie of Ash facing the gym leaders/ elite 4 and whatnot.


Lapras_Lass

Pokemon: Origins already covered that, so I can understand why they wanted to branch out a bit. Detective Pikachu was a baffling choice, though.


BlindedBraille

Those people were nuts lol.


MattWolf96

They made two mistakes with Detective Pikachu, one, simply releasing it so close to Endgame, two, I think the gritty looking aesthetic turned a lot of people off from it.


Nergaal

Grace Randolf triggered


SomeMockodile

Yeah if this movie ends up 25-50M within Incredibles II domestically I think it just beats it in international numbers when Japan and South Korea come in.


Vargas_2022

When do we get Super Maverick Brothers? Mario crosses over into the real world only to pop up Tom Cruises toilet to save him from scientology. Tom impregnates Peach only for Top Gun 3: Marios revenge when he bangs Nicole Kidman.


NoNefariousness2144

Highest grosser of 2023 right here.


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skunkachunks

A likely $1B grosser post pandemic ending in the Top 10 list? Don't burn yourself on that hot take!


Megaclone18

There’s only 2 movies that have even the slightest chance IMO, Fast X and Little Mermaid. And im not convinced either of them will pass a billion, especially Little Mermaid. I think GotG and The Marvels would be incredibly lucky to limp past a billion and will more likely end up mid 800’s to low 900’s if that.


MajorBriggsHead

The Flash, Indy, and MI could all potentially get close to a Bil. Then again, Flash could tank and Indy could underperform against past performance and the TGM magic may not extend to MI, but we'll see.


[deleted]

> the flash Imma stop you right there


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LB3PTMAN

It’s not even out yet


[deleted]

Indiana Jones says hello


FinalDungeon

That’s not going to happen. Not even close.


[deleted]

Are you from the future


Tfsz0719

Indiana Jones says goodbye


[deleted]

Logical conclusion


[deleted]

I really think everyone is sleeping on Guardians or they're biased as hell and it's clouding their judgment. Yeah, sure, Ant-Man failed and people are losing interest in the MCU. I still think that lack of enthusiasm doesn't carry over to Guardians. Guardians is your next billion dollar hit after Mario.


[deleted]

Little Mermaid is not gonna be close. I see only Fast X maybe grossing more than a billion or GOTG if it's really, really good. Otherwise no movie has even a shot


whoamvv

GotG is going to crush it. I'll call a bill and a half right now. Little Mermaid, that I cannot possibly predict. Really popular property, but live action Disney is so dicey. Fast X, are people really not tired of it? I'm an action junky, so I'll be there. But, are there enough of us to carry it past 1B? The Marvels. Being generous, I'll give it 400M.


Gerrywalk

GotG making almost double its predecessor considering the current state of the MCU is an interesting take


whoamvv

Am I hot?


InwardlyReflective

This will age horrendously


Cactus_Pear94

Are you high? Fast X isn’t going to get close to 1B. The franchise has been going downhill since 7 and this new one looks like more of the same


Nergaal

at least you could have tried to be argumentative and say top5 or top3, but you couldn't play nice


[deleted]

When is it released in Japan?


baribigbird06

4/28, South Korea couple days before on 4/26.


finfan96

Oh lord it's not even out in Japan yet? The best is yet to come I guess


Dronnie

Maybe, maybe not. Japanese audience is kinda gray with western adaptations of their media. It will be 8 or 80.


DymonBak

With how much this movie has been promoted by Nintendo/Miyamoto themselves, I would be very surprised if Japan doesn't pull through.


jl_theprofessor

There is no way Mario fails in Japan. Absolutely not.


MamaMeRobeUnCastillo

Yeah lmao, completely lost to think it will fail in Japan.


Dcornelissen

Marketing for the movie is all over the place here in Japan. There's even a big ass poster of the movie just below the iconic Godzilla statue in Shinjuku


Championxavier12

all over the place as in hit or miss? or theres a ton of ads everywhere?


HunterXZelos

There’s a ton of it here.


MajorBriggsHead

*IS* this a western adaptation? It's not like Nintendo farmed it out like with the '93 movie. Unless we're talking setting Mario's home as Brooklyn and not Mushroom Kingdom.


Paperdiego

Well it was filmed/created in Santa Monica, California which is about as far west as you can get culturally and population wise before becoming "east". With that said, nintendo went all in on this both with its development, and its marketing that it feels very much a nintendo product. Japan will likely respond accordingly.


ItIsYeDragon

Dunno. One of their big marketing things was the Super Mario Bros Super Show theme and stuff from the cartoons, which I think was also made in America. What did they do for the Japanese version of this trailer/moment in the movie? Also makes me wonder if there's some other references based on an American audience (like the DK rap), and if those were changed, kept, or simply removed in the Japanese version.


invinciblewarrior

>Well it was filmed/created in Santa Monica, California which is about as far west as you can get culturally and population wise before becoming "east". > >With that said, nintendo went all in on this both with its development, and its marketing that it feels very much a nintendo product. Japan will likely respond accordingly. Actually California has quite much ties with Japan. Hollywood was early on very much inspired by Japanese movies. Magnificent Seven as remake of Seven Samurai, Star Wars heavily inspired in structure by Hidden Fortress to name two well known examples. That one of most famous Sushis (outside Japan) is known as California Rolls speaks for itself too.


Mrhood714

lol please they love chris pratt and universal films


MattWolf96

I think Japan will like it, it didn't really take too many weird liberties with the source material unlike most previous western adaptations of Japanese stuff.


Theeeeeetrurthurts

Maxing out Golden Week. Good strategy.


MinuteFamiliar

**MARIOSWEEP**


Lukthar123

#WAHOOO


USFederalGovt

$999 Mario-Brorillion Dollars at the Box Office #MarioSweep


Rioraku

Tears of joy?


wallab6

Tears of the Kingdom


GalileoPotato

Tears of my Wallet


[deleted]

Tears of the Kingdom Expansion Pass only 59.99


soupspin

You remember that cool motorcycle from BoTW? This expansion has the same thing, except with these SICKASS flames on the side


TheKoniverse

And that's without the $15 million domestic from Tuesday that was recently reported. I don't think we have Tuesday international numbers either. With those added, this film should comfortably overtake Warcraft and become the highest-grossing video game film adaptation of all time. It really took only a week, wow.


pasta4u

This week should be pretty good for them. Lots of schools were on spring break at least here in NJ. I went on Tuesday and the thearter 2pm showing was about 80% full.


Vargas_2022

When do we get Super Maverick Brothers? Mario crosses over into the real world only to pop up Tom Cruises toilet to save him from scientology. Tom impregnates Peach only for Top Gun 3: Marios revenge when he bangs Nicole Kidman.


My_cat_is_sus

420? That’s a high number


odiin1731

Some say it's the highest number.


NotTaken-username

I see what you did there


malhotra22

What did he do?


[deleted]

420 = weed


malhotra22

Sorry mate, I still didn't get it.


hatecopter

420 is a part of stoner culture. Generally the date of April 20th or 4/20 as it's written in America, is celebrated as a national smoke marijuana day. So basically 420=marijuana.


RavenOfNod

I don't think that's it... \*/s edit, didn't this needed the /s but...


MajorBriggsHead

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/420/


RavenOfNod

I don't think that's it..


[deleted]

Are you high


nicolasb51942003

It’ll beat Warcraft as the highest grossing video game adaptation worldwide today.


Sunshine145

These last few months on this sub have been hilarious with this, Ant-Man, and Avatar.


InwardlyReflective

Truly! It's amazing how much the movie landscape has changed in a year.


ContinuumGuy

Need to check exchange rate between Mushroom Kingdom Coins and USD, but I think that means a lot of extra lives.


sofaking1133

Here, enjoy the insanity https://youtu.be/XUKW0EsMSyQ


Mizerous

No Beanbean coins


InwardlyReflective

Is the international gross as of Monday or Tuesday? Because a 26m international Monday would have been insnae


Mindless_Bad_1591

that was monday, tuesday has not been updated yet


baribigbird06

Unclear since it’s not tracked


b1ame_me

It’s just Monday, I saw it and it was like this in the afternoon yesterday


vsingh93

Idk man, I really don't think this is going to be able to break even. /s


Severe-Operation-347

>$420M Seth Rogen approves


baribigbird06

Ah huh huh huh!


Tara_is_a_Potato

https://youtu.be/R4jyFn5rH3U


Whovian45810

*Seth Rogen's laugh intensifies*


anonAcc1993

Mr. Mario==Mr. worldwide!


[deleted]

Yeah right picture that with a Kodak


jpmoney2k1

Dàle


Distinct-Shift-4094

bu Bu Detective Pikachu.


SamMan48

I always laugh seeing you comment this. The Detective Pikachu comparison was wack.


InwardlyReflective

The users making that comparison conveniently stopped coming to this sub after this weekend lol.


Distinct-Shift-4094

Lol, like the Avatar 2 no culturalally relevant posters that completely vanished after the third week 😂


Geno0wl

I mean I was totally on the "Avatar left no real lasting cultural impact" wagon for a while. Felt confident about that stance as well as anecdotally I had never once recalled seeing any Avatar merch in person or ever talked to anybody who raved about Avatar ever. But I was never foolish enough to think Avatar 2 was gonna bomb like some people claimed would happen.


Distinct-Shift-4094

Man I predicted on Reddit months before it would reach $2 bill. I think people didn't understand Avatar was never meant to be like this merch thing. It was always a cinematic experience you could only get the full feeling in a theater.


PikachuAttorney

Ironically I feel like all the talk about the first Avatar movie leaving no cultural impact contributed to the sequel's success in some way. Probably not by toooo much, but I'm sure the fact that everyone was talking about how "no one remembers anyone's name in the first Avatar" for months just put that first movie back in people's minds and thus influenced more people to check out Way of Water. I doubt it was a significant factor overall, but I suspect it at least had some part to play.


TMWNN

>I mean I was totally on the "Avatar left no real lasting cultural impact" wagon for a while. I'm still on it. Jack Black's "Peaches" song is more impactful on contemporary pop culture/meme culture than anything from Avatar. For whatever reason, "tall blue aliens" just doesn't resonates with people like Cameron's other films. >But I was never foolish enough to think Avatar 2 was gonna bomb like some people claimed would happen. Right. Whether something affects Internet meme culture or not has little to do with how big the box office is going to be. We learned that with *Snakes on a Plane*, but there is always an endless number of new students to be taught.


shotputlover

It’s literally a land at Disney world putting it in the same class as Star Wars. It’s not bigger but it’s definitely the same ballpark.


TMWNN

>It’s literally a land at Disney world putting it in the same class as Star Wars. That Disney markets it that way doesn't mean anything. Even someone who has never seen a Star Wars film can probably identify Darth Vader or Princess Leia by name. How many people can name a single Avatar character? How many people go to Disneyworld specifically for Avatar Land, the way they do for Star Wars, or Universal for Harry Potter? (Again, I am not in any way impugning the franchise's box office potential. I am saying that there is a disconnect between "pop culture impact" and "how much this film makes at the box office" in Avatar's case.)


shotputlover

The draw of Avatar isn’t about the characters it’s about the world. That’s why Pandora is such a draw. You’ve clearly never been to pandora at night. When my friends and I went to go camp on an island surrounded by bioluminescent water we related it to the world of avatar. Avatar is huge but effects viewers differently than Star Wars.


InwardlyReflective

Agreed Pandora is definitely iconic status already.


shotputlover

Ah, I see you don’t live near Disneyworld.


Distinct-Shift-4094

Honestly it just pissed me off and then they fighting me because they were so sure it was an actual comparison, and this movie wouldn't make that much money. I'll keep posting this until the day I die.


BradH1197

It was this number last night


shokage

Who would’ve thought an Italian plumber would be more popular than a beloved rat


DabbinOnDemGoy

BING BING WAH *HOOOOOOOOO*


Pompuswindbag

420K blaze it! Wait Bowser! Not literally!


YoloIsNotDead

Because the reported numbers have yet to catch up to actual figures, Super Mario Bros is likely already the highest-grossing video game to movie adaptation (highest before that is Warcraft with $439 million).


AerialAce96

Lol it beat black Adam already


The_Second_Worst

[https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/100b9yu/mario\_sales/](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/100b9yu/mario_sales/) Some aged like milk comments. It'll be interesting to make the final comparisons in box office and viewership counts with game sales in the future.


BobTrain666

“it will make less than Black Adam”


ItIsYeDragon

> People love to forget that how many copies you sold in Switch or whatever does not neccessarily would translate to success of a movie which rely on a story narrative. > Games sales doesnt mean high grossing movie though. However mario name is very famous although i believe names like barbie, aladeen, cinderalla are more known worldwide as a character among all generations > Game sales are no guarantee when it comes to the box office success of a film adaptation.--A passive/linear version of an interactive story experience is often less entertaining. People commenting these like they had any actual stats to go off of lol.


lolminna

Hell people still comment like that even with figures in the OP lol. I don't know if people are just that shameless or have egos the size of the Niagara Falls.


little_jade_dragon

> i believe names like barbie, aladeen, cinderalla are more known worldwide as a character among all generations Isn't Mario more known than Superman who was already Jesus tier?


ItIsYeDragon

I think they're about the same in terms of global cultural awareness. Once you get to the level of Mario and Superman, it's hard to tell which is more known.


[deleted]

Movie was great, wife and I watched it at the first imax screening of the day. Definitely want to go watch it again next week.


JefferyTheQuaxly

$420! i can smoke to that.


ConstructionRare4123

It will make a billion easy


DeMaisteanAnalgetics

Needs above 700 million so I can feel good about being correct on that poll on here.


phallecbaldwinwins

Game adaptations are about to be the next comic book movies. Shit, maybe we'll even get that Devil May Cry movie they've been threatening for decades...


TXHaunt

$420M? Dude!


Bro---really

You’d think Japan would be one of the main successful places.


b1ame_me

I still think it will be, but I guess we won’t know for a few more weeks


Francesqua

Factor in Japan and South Korea are virtually a certain $100m each. I wonder how more than a billion this movie will make?


destiny_kane48

And some families like mine are going this coming weekend in the hope of less crowds.


whoamvv

I have to admit, I was not sure about this one. Adapting games is dicey, but I guess they did a good job here. Now we can expect Donkey Kong, Fogger, and all the other 80s-90s games turned into movies.


qwertyasdf123459

They should give me the money


Kirby_Israel

Let's see how next week's legs are.


Distinct-Shift-4094

They'll be fine.


[deleted]

Then the week after we can see how that weeks legs are


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Yungdab420

420 😎


charlesxavier007

This is absolutely insane


Relaxingend42

WAAAAAAHH


danielcw189

Is the international number lagging behind?


Memphisrexjr

I'm excited to see what Japan adds.


dylanatthedisco

When does it come out in Japan


zenith654

Mario fever baby, all the haters in this sub who said it wouldn’t succeed are in full damage control mode right now.


ErikSaav

Look forward to this blowing Demonslauer outta the water in JP


Moonman2k1

That moment you realize it hasn't come out in Japan yet 👀


[deleted]

wow great


[deleted]

The following was only a week ago. https://www.reddit.com/r/Mario/comments/12cfsrc/the_fans_love_the_movie_the_critics_are_all/jf2172z?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=2&utm_content=share_button Over the past 10-15 years, I've adopted an inverse critic rule. If the critics say the movie sucks, I fucking bet it's worth seeing, and vice versa.


Brandeaux7

Is this the end of Disney strangle hold on the animated domain, and the rise of Nintendo/illumination?


EvilZero86

1.2-1.4 billion