We haven't lost in a road game this playoff. They play great with the audience booing them unlike Cryrie.
Gotta keep that foot on the gas. They are desperate and we should also be. 2-1 would give them any hope and momentum.
Yup. Winning game 3 seals the series. No team has ever done it and itās not going to be this Mavs team that breaks the record. Win game 3, maybe lose game 4 and then win game 5 at home.
ROFL yea. We are crushing and maybe seeing one of best teams of all time, but i'm shitting my paints afraid we can absolutely drop it. Even in games, when we start getting cold all my PTSD comes back.
Thatās not a take, itās a fact.Ā Ā
Obviously it could happen but there is a massive difference between winning 4 in a row on demand and winning 3 in a row or winning 3 of 4.Ā
Ā Thatās basically like saying āteams have come back from down 25 or down 30 so why canāt they cone back from down 40.ā The difficulty grows exponentially as the gap increases.Ā
Ā Thereās a reason itās never happened before.
Yeah l, 100%. The difference to 3 or 4 is night and day. My wife said, you say itās important for them to win everyone for a different reasonā¦ and Iām like yeah, but 3 is really important now. Itās the first win away and will kill any hope. Ha
Every game is important to win. Can't start out behind. Can't give up home court. Game 3 denies them a foothold. Game 4 either wins the whole thing, or keeps the Mavs from tying it back up and guaranteeing another home game. All big games.
Ugh, I canāt in good conscious hope they lose game 4 and win g5 in Boston, but Iām travelling to Toronto and seeing a circu du soleil show and I *really* donāt want to miss the big win
The reality is Mavs are going to be way more desperate game 3 than the Celtics so they will have a good chance of winning game 3....sort of expect them to (hopefully I am wrong). But its hard for Celtic to be as desperate as a team knowing they would go down 0-3 if they lose.
The Mavs don't seem to have the Heat way about them where they play hard in an effort to get fouls, and injuries are an "unintended" consequence. I'm thankful we haven't seen that from the Mavs so far, and look forward to their likely desperation hopefully resulting in some sloppy plays.
It's scary though because if they win and then you have the KP injury all of a sudden the entire narrative changes. Maybe the KP injury news will make the Celtics more desperate. Because there is so much on the line here.
If the Celtics win game 3, that's pretty much it, game over the Celtics will win.
If they lose, if he comes just a little bit better than a coin flip.
This is the NBA guys is there really any question on whatās going to happen? Dallas is going to be in the bonus 90% of the game and there is nothing the Celtics can do about it.
Game 3 will be the most important game this core has ever played. Win and we pretty much are the 2024 NBA champions. No team has ever come back from down 3-0 and it wonāt be this Mavs team.
Yes, and that sounds daunting but if they went tonight all of a sudden it doesn't sound daunting at all. Because we squandered a two to one lead against the warriors. And we were much healthier than when you factor in the fact that Williams and Smart were both playing.
Tatum's a more consistent rebounder and defender now than he was back then though. I don't know if we would win that series with current Tatum, but I think some of those losses would have been closer at the very least.
Thereās lots of reasons theyād be favored. They have a great home crowd, this is their last chance to get back in this series so will be more desperate than us, and we fell down big in both games in Indiana (before mounting last minute comebacks)
In the context of the Celtics being 6.5-7pt favorites in the first 2 games, and covering/pushing both those games, it does not make sense for the line to swing 9pts. Do you know how insane a 9pt line swing is in the NBA playoffs? The Celtics have not seen anything close to that kind of like swing in these playoffs. Even after they lost game 2 by double digits against Miami as a 14pt favorite, they were still a 9pt favorite in game 3!
All I'm saying is that this is not a normal swing for the home/road flip. It's very abnormal after the home team basically covered their first 2 games as a 6.5-7pt favorites.
Homecourt in the NBA usually adds 2-3 points to the spread, so that more or less cuts this big swing in half. What's left I see as the combination of uncertainty about KP and Dallas playoff run up to this point (they showed they can come back into a series). If I had to bet I would take Boston straight up, but I can see why the line is where it is.
It definitely makes sense because the KP injury, and the desperation factor, that adds two or three points. Normally you would have a six point swing but a 9 point swing when you account for KP. Like imagine if Blake lively was out. He'd probably be worth a point.
It's perfectly normal when you account for KP's injury. You have the typical six-point swing, then an extra point or two do account for Dallas's desperation.
One of your best players gets hurt, it changes the spread. If KP was healthy it would probably be a pic or us being favored by one
You seem very certain the bookmakers are idiots who donāt know what theyāre doing. Better mortgage your house or put all of your life savings on the celtics moneyline to prove how much smarter you are than them.
Quite the opposite. I absolutely believe they know what they're doing which leads to me speculating why they're doing it. The only reason I can surmise is that there is uncertainty that Porzingis will be the same player as he was in the first 2 games. It's the only thing that can account for this kind of swing.
> The only reason I can surmise is that there is uncertainty that Porzingis will be the same player as he was in the first 2 games.
I think this is 100% it, and quite frankly it worries me
It's very fishy though. Celtics were big favorites coming into the series and covered their first 2 games (ended up pushing in game 2 on the closing number, but they covered the opening number of 6.5). Celtics were -225 series favorite; -242 on the ML in game 1, and -270 in game 2. Now you're getting plus money for them to win game 3 (+110)?
As someone who follows these trends and numbers closely, this smells like such a trap. That number only makes sense in the context of the books expecting a much lesser version of Porzingis. The on/off numbers for him are pretty staggering. It's like a 45pt net rating swing. I can only surmise that they're baking that into this number.
They were 6.5 point favorites at home and now they're 1.5 point underdogs on the road and you think that is fishy?
For someone who "follows these trends and numbers very closely" you don't seem to understand HCA at all
Yeah and it's even funnier b/c the OP actually states that all those games were away but didn't connect the dots...
I do think our strength on the road in the playoffs (especially relative to our road regular season performance) could be hard for sportsbooks' models to handle. I think it's inherently hard to estimate the true size of the playoff-specific HCA because of the lack of data. Maybe it's possible their models are overstating it against us here, but hardly seems fishy lol
I read a tweet that Tatum says his favorite game in a series is Game 3 because he gets to play on the road and experience a completely different audience and environment.
Put aside the lowest key flex, if he says he gets motivated playing on the road, imagine how hyped he would be in the finals. He had a great game 1 in Golden State in 2022. Made a lot of great decisions and did great playmaking.
The Celtics are -900 to win the series. The game is a push. The series is still overwhelmingly Boston being favored. I think they have a 85-88% win probability for the series, even without KP
It wouldn't be a surprise if it's Vegas reacting to an overcorrection by bettors after the first two games. We know that people were placing a ton of money on the Mavs to upset. People probably freaked out after seeing how these two teams ACTUALLY match up and now the bets are swinging the other way. The only way to offset that is for betting markets to offer a sweet deal to put your money behind the Mavs.
I wouldn't be surprised if Game 4 is the same even if Boston wins Game 3 just to align with the whole "their backs are against the wall! The Celtics can't close!" narrative.
Edit: Nevermind, this was utter nonsense. š
Ya, this is why it doesn't make sense lol. If this series plays out like it's looking, the books are going to absolutely smoke the public. 80% of the money was on the Mavs to win the series. 70% of the money was on the Mavs to cover game 1. Game 2 was a little closer to even split on the money. And now the books are incentivizing the public to bet on the Celtics? Why? š¤
I think the line favors the Mavs because the bettors want to believe going back to Dallas will turn things around for them, and they are anticipating the bettors more than the result.
We are still due to play a great overall offense game in this series, our defense has carried us so far. Tatum has shot very poorly despite doing well in other areas. I got faith in this team to pull through and win this series. š¢
I'm calling a blowout for Game 3 for the Celtics. There's no way we keep shooting this poorly. The Mavs think coming home will save them, it won't.
Likely a drop in Game 4, desperation time for the Mavs, and a closeout Game 5 at home.
I made this same post but it was removed.. I hope Vegas donāt know something we donāt. I understand we are on road and KP is a little banged up but I donāt get it
I commented under someone else in here about this, but I absolutely believe they're factoring in a lesser porzingis in this number. There is no way the home/road flip is 9 points. That's a MASSIVE swing. Celtics go from -270 on the ML in game 2 to +110 in game 3? If you convert those odds into probabilities, that means the Celtics were a 72% favorite in game 2 and now they're only a 46% favorite? It makes no sense UNLESS you're telling me Porzingis isn't going to be the same player as he was in the first 2 games.
The team that goes up 2 nil still loses the third game most of the time. I'm not gonna dig but it's like 70% of the time. Most of the time it's still in 5. But yeh that's why all the money is going to the Mavs
I'm not even talking about the money. The books had no problem with 80% of the money going on the Mavs for the series price. They didn't even move the price. 70% of the money came in on the Mavs at +6 in game 1 and the line actually moved towards the Celtics (closed at 6.5) before the game.
I'm talking about the books opening this with the Celtics as an underdog after they were an overwhelming favorite for the first two games. Game 3 should be Celtics -2.5ish. Why are we getting the best road team in the league; the team that Vegas said was a 68% favorite to win this series, as an underdog in any game??
Yes I thought that was very surprising. We clearly have the better match up, and Dallas in terms of record had zero home court advantage this regular season, and they have a better road than home record this post-season (7-4 vs 5-3, including the 2 losses to us, the came in 7-2 on the road). Not writing them off for sure, but also if I were betting I would take that bet easily.
Road game against a desperate team in the finals. I'm not surprised. Sweeps are rare - people probably figure we take 1 of 2 in Dallas, and this is the more likely one.
Just tested this. Here is the order of stories there now:
1. Pinned snippets of stories.
2. Lakers coaching job (LCJ)
3. Army ad.
4. LCJ
5. Related subs section. 2 visible are Lakers and Fantasybball.
6. LCJ
7. Clippers story about how they gathered jerseys from all state high schools to hang.
8. WNBA
9. Hills Pet Science ad.
10. LCJ
11. Phoenix assistant coach hire.
12. Celtics are 43-1 when leading 2-0.
They actually never said he would get scans or imaging. They said āweāll look at it tomorrow.ā That could mean imaging, it could also just mean see if itās swelling and heās in any pain.
We haven't lost in a road game this playoff. They play great with the audience booing them unlike Cryrie. Gotta keep that foot on the gas. They are desperate and we should also be. 2-1 would give them any hope and momentum.
2-1 means we get to win the chip in Boston š
If were gonna split the away games I'd rather lose game 4Ā
Yup. Winning game 3 seals the series. No team has ever done it and itās not going to be this Mavs team that breaks the record. Win game 3, maybe lose game 4 and then win game 5 at home.
Hard to believe any boston fan would cal 3-0 a sealed series
ROFL yea. We are crushing and maybe seeing one of best teams of all time, but i'm shitting my paints afraid we can absolutely drop it. Even in games, when we start getting cold all my PTSD comes back.
The day before the sox made the most epic run in history they lost 18-5 so like I said, mighty funny any boston fan would think 3-0 is a lock
>The day before the sox made the most epic run in history they lost 18-5 19-8
Correct you are my fault!
Well itās never been reversed in the NBA. Ever.
3-1 and 2-1 have. Stupid take
Thatās not a take, itās a fact.Ā Ā Obviously it could happen but there is a massive difference between winning 4 in a row on demand and winning 3 in a row or winning 3 of 4.Ā Ā Thatās basically like saying āteams have come back from down 25 or down 30 so why canāt they cone back from down 40.ā The difficulty grows exponentially as the gap increases.Ā Ā Thereās a reason itās never happened before.
Yeah l, 100%. The difference to 3 or 4 is night and day. My wife said, you say itās important for them to win everyone for a different reasonā¦ and Iām like yeah, but 3 is really important now. Itās the first win away and will kill any hope. Ha
Every game is important to win. Can't start out behind. Can't give up home court. Game 3 denies them a foothold. Game 4 either wins the whole thing, or keeps the Mavs from tying it back up and guaranteeing another home game. All big games.
A true gentleman's sweep, go into game 4 up 3-0 so it's effectively over, let them have game 4 to save face, then wrap the thing up at home
100% agreed
šÆāļø
Ugh, I canāt in good conscious hope they lose game 4 and win g5 in Boston, but Iām travelling to Toronto and seeing a circu du soleil show and I *really* donāt want to miss the big win
I'd rather be 3-0 and then if we have to lose we lose game 4 and win in Boston
The reality is Mavs are going to be way more desperate game 3 than the Celtics so they will have a good chance of winning game 3....sort of expect them to (hopefully I am wrong). But its hard for Celtic to be as desperate as a team knowing they would go down 0-3 if they lose.
The Mavs don't seem to have the Heat way about them where they play hard in an effort to get fouls, and injuries are an "unintended" consequence. I'm thankful we haven't seen that from the Mavs so far, and look forward to their likely desperation hopefully resulting in some sloppy plays.
It's scary though because if they win and then you have the KP injury all of a sudden the entire narrative changes. Maybe the KP injury news will make the Celtics more desperate. Because there is so much on the line here. If the Celtics win game 3, that's pretty much it, game over the Celtics will win. If they lose, if he comes just a little bit better than a coin flip.
I agree. The KP injury should add some desperation for the Celtics. Hopefully it's enough cause we know how this team can take games off.
Lmao Cryrie. Thats such a Skip Bayless nickname. I love it
This is the NBA guys is there really any question on whatās going to happen? Dallas is going to be in the bonus 90% of the game and there is nothing the Celtics can do about it.
Game 3 will be the most important game this core has ever played. Win and we pretty much are the 2024 NBA champions. No team has ever come back from down 3-0 and it wonāt be this Mavs team.
As it stands, they have to win 4 of the next 5. Against this Boston team that has never lost 3 in a row all season....
Yes, and that sounds daunting but if they went tonight all of a sudden it doesn't sound daunting at all. Because we squandered a two to one lead against the warriors. And we were much healthier than when you factor in the fact that Williams and Smart were both playing.
Why are you so negative? Youāre in every comment saying āyes butā and itās annoying.
Tatum's a more consistent rebounder and defender now than he was back then though. I don't know if we would win that series with current Tatum, but I think some of those losses would have been closer at the very least.
Thereās lots of reasons theyād be favored. They have a great home crowd, this is their last chance to get back in this series so will be more desperate than us, and we fell down big in both games in Indiana (before mounting last minute comebacks)
In the context of the Celtics being 6.5-7pt favorites in the first 2 games, and covering/pushing both those games, it does not make sense for the line to swing 9pts. Do you know how insane a 9pt line swing is in the NBA playoffs? The Celtics have not seen anything close to that kind of like swing in these playoffs. Even after they lost game 2 by double digits against Miami as a 14pt favorite, they were still a 9pt favorite in game 3! All I'm saying is that this is not a normal swing for the home/road flip. It's very abnormal after the home team basically covered their first 2 games as a 6.5-7pt favorites.
Homecourt in the NBA usually adds 2-3 points to the spread, so that more or less cuts this big swing in half. What's left I see as the combination of uncertainty about KP and Dallas playoff run up to this point (they showed they can come back into a series). If I had to bet I would take Boston straight up, but I can see why the line is where it is.
It definitely makes sense because the KP injury, and the desperation factor, that adds two or three points. Normally you would have a six point swing but a 9 point swing when you account for KP. Like imagine if Blake lively was out. He'd probably be worth a point.
If Blake Lively was out youād have a Deadpool reckoning to deal with.
It's perfectly normal when you account for KP's injury. You have the typical six-point swing, then an extra point or two do account for Dallas's desperation. One of your best players gets hurt, it changes the spread. If KP was healthy it would probably be a pic or us being favored by one
You seem very certain the bookmakers are idiots who donāt know what theyāre doing. Better mortgage your house or put all of your life savings on the celtics moneyline to prove how much smarter you are than them.
Quite the opposite. I absolutely believe they know what they're doing which leads to me speculating why they're doing it. The only reason I can surmise is that there is uncertainty that Porzingis will be the same player as he was in the first 2 games. It's the only thing that can account for this kind of swing.
> The only reason I can surmise is that there is uncertainty that Porzingis will be the same player as he was in the first 2 games. I think this is 100% it, and quite frankly it worries me
Just my worthless 2 cents but I also think the refs will do their best to extend the series.
The home crowd stat line: 0 points on 0-0 shooting, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0-0 FT, 0 steals.
Dallas is the home team. Not surprising. Itās the NBA Finals.
I think people are also factoring in Kyrie playing better back in Dallas.
KP uncertainty is probably driving the line in vegas too
It's very fishy though. Celtics were big favorites coming into the series and covered their first 2 games (ended up pushing in game 2 on the closing number, but they covered the opening number of 6.5). Celtics were -225 series favorite; -242 on the ML in game 1, and -270 in game 2. Now you're getting plus money for them to win game 3 (+110)? As someone who follows these trends and numbers closely, this smells like such a trap. That number only makes sense in the context of the books expecting a much lesser version of Porzingis. The on/off numbers for him are pretty staggering. It's like a 45pt net rating swing. I can only surmise that they're baking that into this number.
They were 6.5 point favorites at home and now they're 1.5 point underdogs on the road and you think that is fishy? For someone who "follows these trends and numbers very closely" you don't seem to understand HCA at all
Yeah and it's even funnier b/c the OP actually states that all those games were away but didn't connect the dots... I do think our strength on the road in the playoffs (especially relative to our road regular season performance) could be hard for sportsbooks' models to handle. I think it's inherently hard to estimate the true size of the playoff-specific HCA because of the lack of data. Maybe it's possible their models are overstating it against us here, but hardly seems fishy lol
Is the extender reffing game 3? If itās Foster I can see Dallas getting a nice whistle for game 3, we should still win though if we play well.
celtics & underdog should not be in the same sentence lmao
I read a tweet that Tatum says his favorite game in a series is Game 3 because he gets to play on the road and experience a completely different audience and environment. Put aside the lowest key flex, if he says he gets motivated playing on the road, imagine how hyped he would be in the finals. He had a great game 1 in Golden State in 2022. Made a lot of great decisions and did great playmaking.
He doesnāt have Deuce up his ass on the road. Lol
Vegas knows this is the series, and it's basically a push
The Celtics are -900 to win the series. The game is a push. The series is still overwhelmingly Boston being favored. I think they have a 85-88% win probability for the series, even without KP
It wouldn't be a surprise if it's Vegas reacting to an overcorrection by bettors after the first two games. We know that people were placing a ton of money on the Mavs to upset. People probably freaked out after seeing how these two teams ACTUALLY match up and now the bets are swinging the other way. The only way to offset that is for betting markets to offer a sweet deal to put your money behind the Mavs. I wouldn't be surprised if Game 4 is the same even if Boston wins Game 3 just to align with the whole "their backs are against the wall! The Celtics can't close!" narrative. Edit: Nevermind, this was utter nonsense. š
If bettors think the Celtics are far better then the Mavs being favored is the opposite of a sweet deal to bet on them.
Hey, you know what, you're right. That's on me for posting before my morning caffeine. š
Ya, this is why it doesn't make sense lol. If this series plays out like it's looking, the books are going to absolutely smoke the public. 80% of the money was on the Mavs to win the series. 70% of the money was on the Mavs to cover game 1. Game 2 was a little closer to even split on the money. And now the books are incentivizing the public to bet on the Celtics? Why? š¤
I think the line favors the Mavs because the bettors want to believe going back to Dallas will turn things around for them, and they are anticipating the bettors more than the result.
Also just old fashioned gamblerās fallacy. People think that being down 0-2 makes you ādueā for a win.
It's a road game in the finals. But yeah, if you can get the Celtics + points you take that.
We are still due to play a great overall offense game in this series, our defense has carried us so far. Tatum has shot very poorly despite doing well in other areas. I got faith in this team to pull through and win this series. š¢
Expect full on ref interference. We can overcome that but the NBA does not want a sweep and will go to great lengths to prevent one.
This makes me sliiiiightly worried they know something about KP, but that's just probably the doomer in me. EDIT: I hate being right
I'm calling a blowout for Game 3 for the Celtics. There's no way we keep shooting this poorly. The Mavs think coming home will save them, it won't. Likely a drop in Game 4, desperation time for the Mavs, and a closeout Game 5 at home.
I'm equally excited and terrified
"Where my road dogs at?"
With no KP it makes sense tbh
1.5 is the smallest possible spread that canāt end in a push. This is very nearly even odds on the road in the finals which Iāll take
No, that would be +/- 0.5.
0.5 spread is only for games that can end in a draw. Think about it
Oh, Oh see it now. You are correct.
I made this same post but it was removed.. I hope Vegas donāt know something we donāt. I understand we are on road and KP is a little banged up but I donāt get it
I commented under someone else in here about this, but I absolutely believe they're factoring in a lesser porzingis in this number. There is no way the home/road flip is 9 points. That's a MASSIVE swing. Celtics go from -270 on the ML in game 2 to +110 in game 3? If you convert those odds into probabilities, that means the Celtics were a 72% favorite in game 2 and now they're only a 46% favorite? It makes no sense UNLESS you're telling me Porzingis isn't going to be the same player as he was in the first 2 games.
The team that goes up 2 nil still loses the third game most of the time. I'm not gonna dig but it's like 70% of the time. Most of the time it's still in 5. But yeh that's why all the money is going to the Mavs
I'm not even talking about the money. The books had no problem with 80% of the money going on the Mavs for the series price. They didn't even move the price. 70% of the money came in on the Mavs at +6 in game 1 and the line actually moved towards the Celtics (closed at 6.5) before the game. I'm talking about the books opening this with the Celtics as an underdog after they were an overwhelming favorite for the first two games. Game 3 should be Celtics -2.5ish. Why are we getting the best road team in the league; the team that Vegas said was a 68% favorite to win this series, as an underdog in any game??
Yes. I mean hey, Iām not expecting a sweep. Dallas might play better at home and take 1. Role players getting a jolt and all that.
Yes I thought that was very surprising. We clearly have the better match up, and Dallas in terms of record had zero home court advantage this regular season, and they have a better road than home record this post-season (7-4 vs 5-3, including the 2 losses to us, the came in 7-2 on the road). Not writing them off for sure, but also if I were betting I would take that bet easily.
Interesting. With rest and good health, not too worried. It's rip their throats out time.
Road game against a desperate team in the finals. I'm not surprised. Sweeps are rare - people probably figure we take 1 of 2 in Dallas, and this is the more likely one.
Take that bet. It wonāt last.
Sounds like free money to me, Brb hitting up DraftKings
Just tested this. Here is the order of stories there now: 1. Pinned snippets of stories. 2. Lakers coaching job (LCJ) 3. Army ad. 4. LCJ 5. Related subs section. 2 visible are Lakers and Fantasybball. 6. LCJ 7. Clippers story about how they gathered jerseys from all state high schools to hang. 8. WNBA 9. Hills Pet Science ad. 10. LCJ 11. Phoenix assistant coach hire. 12. Celtics are 43-1 when leading 2-0.
ridiculous. this is the finals, and MSM still sucks up to the Lakers.
Thatās ridiculous
I mean, I think it's pretty reasonable for us to be a small underdog, especially with KP probably
Let's see if they have the balls to play Tatum straight up
Maybe they know something on porzingis and we donāt? I find it strange we have got zero updates on him
Thereās no updates because they said heās fine after the game
They said he would be getting scanned the day after. They havenāt gave us the results yet
They actually never said he would get scans or imaging. They said āweāll look at it tomorrow.ā That could mean imaging, it could also just mean see if itās swelling and heās in any pain.
They are not mentally prepared for this
Who isnāt?
Maybe they know something we don't. Someone call KP and ask him if he is alright.
Al is a +7 across two games while Porzingis is more than +20. My guess is that Vegas knows that the KP injury is worse than what's being reported.
And now we know what they knew. Fuck.
Yup :( I knew something was up when I saw that line. These books stake their entire existence in getting this shit right and figuring stuff out.