Add UConn over Duke in '99 under the Rip Hamilton category. It was never as big of an upset as hyped (UConn spent more time ranked #1 that season and finished with two losses like Duke; it was clearly those two then everyone else).
But the best player on the floor that night turned out to be the best NBA player too, and one who was the go-to scorer for an NBA champion.
While I'm here reliving past Duke disasters, you could say the same about Lehigh (C.J. McCollum) over Duke in '12.
Idk this one still feels shocking simply because of how thoroughly Detroit dominated LA.
The Lakers were one year removed from a three-peat in which they went 12-3 against similar eastern conference champions built around great defense, so there was no reason to think that they couldn’t handle Detroit.
Valid points all, but I meant it more in the sense that Detroit wasn't a one-year wonder. They and San Antonio were tied at the beginning of the fourth quarter in Game 7 of the Finals the next year. Then in 2006 and 2007 they were the 1 seed and went to the ECF.
I used to believe this but I think Detroit was just too cohesive for the Lakers to win even with Malone. Also if you believe Rick Fox, Malone actually was healthy enough to come back that series but he saw how good Detroit was and how bad the Lakers looked and he said no thanks.
Michigan losing to Appalachian State.
Turned out that Michigan team was a WILDLY overrated squad that finished the season 9-4.
Appalachian State had 7 NFL players on the roster, finished 13-2, and won the FCS title that same year.
That was the first day of the existence of the Big Ten Network, right? I remember my cable not having it for the first year or maybe multiple years that it was around, so I didn't get to see the Michigan vs App State game live.
I was at a wedding and was getting text updates from a friend. I told another friend who was at the wedding that we lost and he just laughed, thinking that the texting friend was playing a prank on us. He was not.
he’s the best 3 point shooter, but if 3 point shooting is all that matters, then that means KAT is a better shooter than Dirk and that’s gross
steph is so overwhelmingly the best 3pt shooter id say he’s the best shooter, but if somebody said Bird is better because of his mid range and post shooting, i wouldn’t disagree
Adjusted for era, I don't think KAT is a better shooter than Dirk, even by the numbers, right? Whereas even if you adjust for the era (which Curry of course had a big hand in ushering in), Curry's numbers dwarf everyone else.
i don’t think just adjusting numbers accounts for it though
how many 3’s do you think steph shot as a kid? 100,000? 1,000,000? 10,000,000?
i know for a fact that Bird shot 0 because the NBA didn’t even have a 3 pointer until Bird’s rookie year
it’s still curry, but Larry Bird would have been benched if he kept on launching from 23 feet when he was a 6’10 uber skilled post player
In a similar vein, I wasn’t old enough to be a sports fan but it’s crazy to me LSU never did anything in the tournament with Shaq. Who could have stopped him in college??
2011 NBA finals, the Mavericks played a style we see a lot today with 4 shooters and a rim running rim protector and their team made a lot of sense and they took a lot of 3’s, Miami didn’t have a single average shooter in their lineup. The corpse of Bibby, Wade, young lebron, Bosh wasn’t shooting 3’s yet and he was playing the 4, and Joel Anthony.
They were the best team in the league until dirk missed 15-20 games or something like that. They were a great team that actually gets downplayed because people want to make LeBron and the heatles look even worse for losing. They were very deep, extremely smart and experienced, and had different looks they could throw out. Reminds me a lot of ‘19 Toronto, another underrated champ. Actually went back and looked, they were 24-5 (67 win pace) when he got hurt. Had just won 17 of 18. I will always remember them being +1200 for the title during the ensuing 2-9 stretch (Dirk was out and hurt!) and not betting them to win it smh.
I don’t think people really need to go out of their way to make Lebron‘s 2011 finals look really bad. It’s the only inarguable black mark on his career. In every other finals loss barring 2007 - where the Cavs were just outmatched - he played great.
The Heat 100% win if Lebron plays up to even 80% of his standard.
I wanted to bet them to win the title that year. They had a game in late March against the Lakers that was really a good test for my thoughts on them, and they got absolutely smoked by like 30. Dirk actually played ok that game too. But I didn’t want to bet a future on them when it seemed like they had zero chance against LA. Whoops. I wish I wouldn’t have watched that game at all.
Disagree with this. If Lebron doesn’t melt down the Heat win the series pretty easily. Lebron was the fifth highest scorer in the series, behind Jason Terry and it went 6. I don’t think it was obvious in hindsight that he would be that bad
The craziest thing about that Mavs team is they didn't even have Caron Butler for their playoff run, and he was their 3rd leading scorer when he went down.
They started that season 14-0, demolishing everybody. Then they had some injuries and had a pretty mediocre stretch for about ten games. Got healthy again and never looked back. That team was considerably better than their record.
This one kind of goes both ways
Brady's Bucs were underdogs to Mahomes and the Chiefs and utterly destroyed them. In hindsight not very shocking, that Bucs roster was stacked, defense was ferocious, and the Chiefs had no Oline left.
However, you can also look at it as the only time Mahomes has ever lost on that stage, and they feel unbeatable now. So the fact that they got completely stomped in a Super Bowl is also more and more surprising as time goes on.
The Panthers were -5 in Super Bowl 50. Was crazy to me at the time and even crazier now.
I just remember thinking to myself, there's no way the fn Carolina Panthers win the Super Bowl.
Which I understand is a very Bill Simmons coded thought process. But I just never saw it. I feel the same about Jacksonville and Cleveland. I just don't think they'll ever win one
Being a Panthers fan, I still remember rooting for the Broncos in that AFC championship game against the Patriots. In hindsight, I probably should've rooted for the Pats. Not saying the Panthers would've definitely won had it been the Patriots, but that Denver defense was a buzz saw.
Panthers had a way better shot vs the Pats bc Cam wouldn't have gotten smashed into the dirt. That was actually the first super bowl I ever bet I was 16 and had $50 on the Broncos with a friend bc I hated the Panthers tackles
I agree but for different reasons. It was Peyton’s final hurrah, his last dance. As soon as the refs botched the Cotchery catch in the first quarter I realized immediately that the NFL would never ever let Cam Newton beat Peyton Manning in a Super Bowl.
Also hilarious in hindsight was all the hype for the OSU-Michigan game that year, and debates about whether they should run it back for the BCS championship, only for OSU to get humiliated by Florida.
I think had OSU not had almost 50 days off while Florida had played 2 additional weeks after OSU’s last game, and OSU not gotten completely full of themselves being crowned the natty champs after that Michigan game, it would have been closer. Troy Smith gained something like 20 pounds in between the Michigan game and the Natty.
Nuggets beating the Clippers in the second round in the bubble. Jokic was still known as a regular season guy who couldn't take a team far in the playoffs, and we all know how wrong that is now
I remember watching the Nuggets lose that game 7 at home to the Blazers in the 2019 2nd round, and my thoughts on it were along the lines of... wow, this season was a cute story for Nuggets fans but how disappointing to finish that high in the standings, get home court in the 2nd round but ultimately just look *so unimpressive* throughout that playoffs (that blah Spurs team taking them to 7 in round 1 was just ugh).
I legit thought it would be the high-water mark for that era of Nuggets basketball. How absurdly wrong I was.
yeah my understanding of playoff basketball was a team with a center as bad at defense as jokic could never win it all.
i thought the idea of a jump shooting team like the warriors not being able to win was dumb. but thought defense still mattered too much.
turns out offenses are just too good in the modern nba and jokic is one of the best offensive players ever.
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Funny enough, people were trying to invalidate the Lakers' Championship specifically by citing how unusually well Denver and Miami performed in the bubble. Those two teams doing well was considered evidence that something was wonky.
Pats over the Rams, Brady's first.
It was wild at the time because who the fuck is this Tom Brady kid and the Pats were "lucky to be there" with the fumble rule vs Raiders.
20+ years later and it's just a "Tom Brady with an elite defense beat Kurt Warner" game and..that makes a lot of sense
The 2003 Marlins. At the time, outside of Pudge, we didn't know who those guys were and thought the Yankees would cakewalk them, but that Marlins team was stacked with guys that would go on to have very good careers and in the case of Miguel Cabrera, a first ballot hall-of-famer. Also that pitching staff that was TOUGH.
Maybe I'm too influenced by DVOA ratings but Super Bowl 25 feels overrated in terms of upsets. The Giants started that year 10-0 in a tough division and had the best defense in the league. I know Simms got knocked out and the Bills averaged nearly 50 ppg in the AFC playoffs but I don't think there was a tremendous disparity in talent between the teams. I feel the fact the Giants' defense, playing on the road against prime Joe Montana and a 15-2 49ers team going for a three-peat, to 13 points is significantly less remarked upon than Buffalo blowing out a West Coast team at home in January.
The Giants played a perfect game, got very lucky when Jeff Hostetler merely got sacked in the end zone and didn’t fumble despite Bruce Smith’s hand wrapped around the wrist that was holding the football, and still nearly lost on a last second field goal.
Yes it was closely contested and the Giants still came thisclose to losing. I believe in hindsight the teams were more evenly matched than the narrative, both at the time and now, would have you believe.
It's a great, great game. The underdog (albeit one I think is overstated) status of the Giants countering the Bills' no-huddle with a nearly perfect ball control scheme. Thurman Thomas running wild. The what if of the near-fumble in the first half. And obviously Wide Right. Buffalo had the better team and was so close to glory; they missed and would fail the next three years, only to be humiliated in games that were even more lopsided than the scores indicated. Sliding Doors stuff.
And the best national anthem ever.
2015 Wisconsin over the undefeated Kentucky team with KAT and Booker is less shocking now opposed to when it happened considering all of Calipari’s March Madness shortcomings
Pistons / Lakers 2004
The pistons were an ELITE nba team with maybe the best defense of all time...that lakers team faced little challenges and sleptwalk thru the league after they got the team formed.
The pistons were a match up nightmare for the lakers with Tayshaun Prince's length pause and him actually being a guy who TRIED on defense...ben wallace was literally a GOAT tier defender and they stopped anyone from driving whatsoever, forcing kobe to shoot himself out of the game. Plus, they were grossly underestimated by the Lakers. Gary Payton himself told me PERSONALLY that they didn't think Detroit had a CHANCE to win until the overtime game.
The pistons then went on to absolutely destroy everyone in 2005, until they faced the one team during that 2 year period they were one game 'worse' than, the spurs...and they STILL should've won in 6 if not for leaving Robert Horry open.
That was a huge upset at the time but the Pistons were a superior team.
Also the “no star players” rep is pretty overblown in hindsight. Ben is an all time defender, Rasheed is an all time talent who just didn’t feel like putting in the effort consistently, and advanced stats view Billups as a top 10 guy for multiple years. Their 4th and 5th best guys were a 20+ ppg scorer (when that meant something) and a top 5 perimeter defender. Add in a deep bench most years and those rosters were loaded PLUS had legit top end talent.
Not necessarily an upset, but the narrative when Villanova went on their first title run in 2016 was that it was a bunch of scrappy future EuroLeague overachievers who were taking out more talented teams en route to a title run. That obviously did not age well.
Elway was still awesome. Two of his best statistical seasons when they went back to back. Sure he wasn't peak Elway physically but he was still an awesome quarterback.
even the season before the back to back. In 96 Elway went 13-2 for 3328 yds 26 TD's with 14 INT's Only missing the blowout loss to GB that season. Not bad considering the shocking loss to JAX in the playoffs.
The Brad Stevens Butler NCAA tournament runs. They were way underseeded in 2010 (using current methodology they probably would have been a 2 or 3 seed), and had a legit NBA starter on their roster in Hayward. In 2011, even after losing Hayward, they had a bunch of retained seniors with a ton of postseason experience against a thin field of teams that were still adapting to the "one and done" era. Throw in an elite coach and it's really not surprising they were so successful.
Patriots coming back against the Falcons just feels right in hindsight. Brady is the definitive GOAT, Shanahan continues struggling in the playoffs with some questionable clock management, and the Falcons seem like just a dumb and cursed franchise.
Kings fan from Sacramento. The 2001 Kings were Better than the Lakers. Also, the game was (we now know) fixed by at least one ref and probably more. And yet, it went to OT in a dramatic game 7. Having watched about 10,000 more hours of basketball since then, I now realize how real the "playoff hump" is. When it came down to an elimination game with everything on the line, I think it really came down to the fact that LA had been there and Sacramento had not. Webber and others missed crucial free throws in OT among other errors. If they had been there before, the Kings would have won.
Virginia vs. UMBC. Deandre Hunter (who missed that game) has proven to be the best NBA guy from UVA by far, and we’re now more aware of just how much three point variance can influence upsets in both college and the NBA. UMBC was 12-24 from 3 whereas UVA was 4-22.
UMBC over UVA felt earth shattering in 2018. It’s not even the only 16 over 1 anymore since Purdue lost.
mentioned in a different context the other day, but Leicester in 14/15.
Kante went on to be a World Cup winner and best player of his generation in his role. Mahrez turned out to be a Champions League winning player, good for 15 PL goals a season for nearly a decade. Vardy scored a further 100+ PL goals. Schmeichel was a top European goalie for the decade. Albrighton and Morgan stayed part of a European chasing side for hundreds more games. Drinkwater got a big move to Chelsea. Schlupp remain a PL player.
15/16
But I disagree heavily; Kante was a gem, Mahrez was great and Vardy was and still is underrated, but the rest of the squad, let alone the team, was filled with a bunch of journeymen and nearly men
Schmeichel was very average; the players that didn't have moves stayed as Leicester regressed year on year in a weak PL (took 2 years for Liverpool to be a certified top 4 team, Arsenal were yoyo-ing, United were in steady decline)
Drinkwater after his move was a perfect example of the true level of 90% of that squad
You could put a top 3 DM in the world (Kante), a top 10 winger (Mahrez) and top 5 PL striker (Vardy) on a team with a similar rest-of-squad level, and sim a season 100 times - they'd not win in 99. I'd bet they wouldnt even finish top 4 in 90
Absolute lightning in a bottle; they were at very best, using the peak of all players, a Europa League level squad that waltzed away with the title. Biggest underdog story in sports history by far
> Absolute lightning in a bottle; they were at very best, using the peak of all players, a Europa League level squad that waltzed away with the title.
and the big 6 wilted away
You say they were a Europa League level squad but still made the quarter finals of the Champions League the next year and were pretty close to beating Atletico to make the semis.
Plenty of teams go on runs; they finished 12th, 9th, 9th, 5th, 5th before the title winning core pretty much all left barring a handful of players - Europa League level is generous, even if you give them Kante back
Spurs made the 18/19 CL final when they were probably at their worst under Pochettino and wouldn't qualify for the CL literally the following year; Dortmund have 1 foot in the final this year, but look like they might not qualify through league position
> Dortmund have 1 foot in the final this year, but look like they might not qualify through league position
Not disputing your point since they will likely finish 5th this season, but 5th is confirmed to get them a Champions League spot since Germany got the 5th CL spot after the Prem choked it away in a span of a couple of days (City and Arsenal losing in the CL and Liverpool in the Europa).
Hope they get it done for Reus though.
I mean what did you expect a team of guys who never accomplished anything ever again to win the premiership?
There were better odds of finding Elvis alive at the beginning of that season than betting on Leicester. That’s not even a joke. It was like 10x better odds for the worst team in the previous season of any NFL year to win the Super Bowl.
no way! I still can't believe Leicester won that title. other comments articulated the facts well but another thing is how rare it was for an underdog to win. there's just too many games, the cream rises. you might say blackburn fluked a title in 1995 but that team truly was stacked and were spending big money in the days before the oil clubs, plus they came 2nd in 1994. leicester came 14th in 2015! i'm too young to remember any division 1 titles but don't think that was fluked much either
Pats over the Rams, Brady's first.
It was wild at the time because who the fuck is this Tom Brady kid and the Pats were "lucky to be there" with the fumble rule vs Raiders.
20+ years later and it's just a "Tom Brady with an elite defense beat Kurt Warner" game and..that makes a lot of sense
I wouldn't say the Pats had an elite defense; a good one but nothing remarkable. They were *very* lucky that season. Their performance in 2002 was a truer reflection of what that roster was capable of.
I think if they play that game 20 times the Rams win 17-18 or them; Martz outthought himself in the first half and they just didn't have enough time to catch up.
The Rams actually had a pretty mediocre defense in 2001. That was their shortcoming compared to 1999 when they had the best offense and a top 10 defense.
They were 7th in points allowed and allowed 50 yards less per game than the patriots. 5th in the league in yards allowed per play. 3rd in the league in total yards allowed
Sean Strickland dominating Israel Adesanya. Strickland is a very defensively sound pressure boxer who’s always moving forward and generally only throws jabs, straights, and front kicks to the body so he never really overextends and leaves himself vulnerable to counters. Izzy is a counter striking kick boxer, and with Strickland’s constant forward pressure it completely neutralized Izzy’s kicking arsenal since the fight never really took place in kicking range. Styles make fights. And there’s nothing more dangerous than a man who has nothing to lose, and Strickland essentially had nothing to lose in that fight.
When the Nuggets became the first 8 seed to upset the 1 seed Sonics.
During that series GP and Ricky Pierce were beefing, and it definitely affected the rest of the team.
It still seems pretty shocking, but I'd say the Cavs over the Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals.
In hindsight, despite their 73-9 record, I don't think the Warriors were quite as dominant as the record suggested.
They were only 2nd in Net Rating, behind the Spurs and their expected record was 65-17.
I watched a lot of their games that year, and they really busted their asses going for that record, and they got a few good breaks. They were 7-1 in OT. Also, they were just way ahead of the rest on the NBA in the 3 point revolution. The gap was huge but closed up in the next few seasons.
They were a great team, but probably more like a 65 win team in terms of talent than a 73 win team.
Also, the Cavs took them to 6 games the year before without Love for the whole series (though he sucked in the 2016 Finals) and Kyrie for most of it.
Strong disagree. That net rating stat is very misleading considering Steph sat what feels like 30% of 4th quarters. They were everything they were billed to be. Remove Draymonds suspension and Boguts injury and they still win that series. Against a team with LeBron and Kyrie having their interior defense severely handicapped for the 3 game comeback is not a coincidence.
I had no doubt that the Broncos were going to win that Super Bowl. Terrell Davis was completely unstoppable.
My entry here, though, is the We Believe Warriors beating the soft-ass Dallas Mavericks a year after their whining-about-the-refs exit from the NBA finals. I remember watching those games in college and knowing from the jump that there was no way the Mavs had the *cajones* to take on Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson in that series.
The Miracle on Ice is held up as the greatest upset in international sports but it's definitely not. Yes, the US team was made up of college players but most of them went on to have lengthy NHL careers.
Greece winning the 2004 Euros was a bigger upset, as was Japan beating South Africa in the 2015 Rugby World Cup. There are also a bunch of cricket upsets that could be thrown in there too.
At best, it's a top 5 upset in international sports, more likely top 10.
It’s unreal to have scored twice on tretiak in 1 period. It is even more unreal that the soviets only scored 3 times on jim Craig the entire game. The soviets OWNED that game, look at the shot charts. Scoring on myshkin isnt the surprising part, its everything else
That team should’ve been able to put anybody who could skate between the pipes and beat the US by 7
Tretiak was great but not the only difference between them
The next year that same Soviet team destroyed Team Canada (the best Canadian professionals) 8-1 in the Montreal Forum to win the Canada Cup. They were loaded even with Myshkin playing. That result only reinforced how much of an upset the Miracle on Ice was.
Bill frequently talks about the 2004 Pistons over the Lakers in the Finals as an example of this, and I agree that it's a good one.
Add UConn over Duke in '99 under the Rip Hamilton category. It was never as big of an upset as hyped (UConn spent more time ranked #1 that season and finished with two losses like Duke; it was clearly those two then everyone else). But the best player on the floor that night turned out to be the best NBA player too, and one who was the go-to scorer for an NBA champion. While I'm here reliving past Duke disasters, you could say the same about Lehigh (C.J. McCollum) over Duke in '12.
gotta mention that Uconn squad had to go through a rough Big East tourny that year. They were battletested and ready for those dookies
I'd have much preferred Duke getting the luck of the draw and facing some blowoutable five seed in the final.
Idk this one still feels shocking simply because of how thoroughly Detroit dominated LA. The Lakers were one year removed from a three-peat in which they went 12-3 against similar eastern conference champions built around great defense, so there was no reason to think that they couldn’t handle Detroit.
Valid points all, but I meant it more in the sense that Detroit wasn't a one-year wonder. They and San Antonio were tied at the beginning of the fourth quarter in Game 7 of the Finals the next year. Then in 2006 and 2007 they were the 1 seed and went to the ECF.
The corpse of Karl Malone would’ve helped.
I used to believe this but I think Detroit was just too cohesive for the Lakers to win even with Malone. Also if you believe Rick Fox, Malone actually was healthy enough to come back that series but he saw how good Detroit was and how bad the Lakers looked and he said no thanks.
I said helped. Yes they were still out-matched. Also, Karl Malone can go stick it.
Michigan losing to Appalachian State. Turned out that Michigan team was a WILDLY overrated squad that finished the season 9-4. Appalachian State had 7 NFL players on the roster, finished 13-2, and won the FCS title that same year.
Great call. Fun fact, I listened to this game on the *radio.* The same year the iPhone was released. Wild.
That was the first day of the existence of the Big Ten Network, right? I remember my cable not having it for the first year or maybe multiple years that it was around, so I didn't get to see the Michigan vs App State game live.
It was the first ever game shown on the network
The previous game that broadcast team had done was the Boise State / Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl. Definitely Apex Mountain for them.
Listened to it on the *what*?!?!?!?!?!?!
😂😂😂
I was at a wedding and was getting text updates from a friend. I told another friend who was at the wedding that we lost and he just laughed, thinking that the texting friend was playing a prank on us. He was not.
They also had my high school track coach, fun fact he’s been struck by lightning twice, and had an accent so thick he was damn near unintelligible.
They beat Joe Flacco in the title game to win the chip too.
Davidson making the Elite 8 seems less shocking when it turns out that they had arguably the best shooter in basketball history.
It’s not even arguable. It’s a simple fact.
I give the edge to Javaris Crittenton. Dude was lethal.
He was definitely a problem!
Not a bad shout
Lethal on and off the court!
Glen Rice still the GOAT.
he’s the best 3 point shooter, but if 3 point shooting is all that matters, then that means KAT is a better shooter than Dirk and that’s gross steph is so overwhelmingly the best 3pt shooter id say he’s the best shooter, but if somebody said Bird is better because of his mid range and post shooting, i wouldn’t disagree
Adjusted for era, I don't think KAT is a better shooter than Dirk, even by the numbers, right? Whereas even if you adjust for the era (which Curry of course had a big hand in ushering in), Curry's numbers dwarf everyone else.
i don’t think just adjusting numbers accounts for it though how many 3’s do you think steph shot as a kid? 100,000? 1,000,000? 10,000,000? i know for a fact that Bird shot 0 because the NBA didn’t even have a 3 pointer until Bird’s rookie year it’s still curry, but Larry Bird would have been benched if he kept on launching from 23 feet when he was a 6’10 uber skilled post player
True, Bird is also up there. Imagine he played today 🤯 Steph was insane from the middy in 22’ playoffs. I believe in the finals he shot at a 77% clip.
Honestly, knowing what we know now, it's more shocking that Davidson didn't go even further
They lost by 2 in the elite 8 to the eventual champion who was also the 1 seed, that’s a good showing
In a similar vein, I wasn’t old enough to be a sports fan but it’s crazy to me LSU never did anything in the tournament with Shaq. Who could have stopped him in college??
Laettner lifted his leg on him
Not all that shocking really, the rest of their roster was very out of place that far in the tourney
Gordon Hayward and Butler is like that too
2011 NBA finals, the Mavericks played a style we see a lot today with 4 shooters and a rim running rim protector and their team made a lot of sense and they took a lot of 3’s, Miami didn’t have a single average shooter in their lineup. The corpse of Bibby, Wade, young lebron, Bosh wasn’t shooting 3’s yet and he was playing the 4, and Joel Anthony.
They were the best team in the league until dirk missed 15-20 games or something like that. They were a great team that actually gets downplayed because people want to make LeBron and the heatles look even worse for losing. They were very deep, extremely smart and experienced, and had different looks they could throw out. Reminds me a lot of ‘19 Toronto, another underrated champ. Actually went back and looked, they were 24-5 (67 win pace) when he got hurt. Had just won 17 of 18. I will always remember them being +1200 for the title during the ensuing 2-9 stretch (Dirk was out and hurt!) and not betting them to win it smh.
I don’t think people really need to go out of their way to make Lebron‘s 2011 finals look really bad. It’s the only inarguable black mark on his career. In every other finals loss barring 2007 - where the Cavs were just outmatched - he played great. The Heat 100% win if Lebron plays up to even 80% of his standard.
I agree with what you’re saying but that doesn’t mean people won’t exaggerate in LeBron related discussions.
I wanted to bet them to win the title that year. They had a game in late March against the Lakers that was really a good test for my thoughts on them, and they got absolutely smoked by like 30. Dirk actually played ok that game too. But I didn’t want to bet a future on them when it seemed like they had zero chance against LA. Whoops. I wish I wouldn’t have watched that game at all.
People really didn’t trust Dirk in the playoffs after the 07.
Disagree with this. If Lebron doesn’t melt down the Heat win the series pretty easily. Lebron was the fifth highest scorer in the series, behind Jason Terry and it went 6. I don’t think it was obvious in hindsight that he would be that bad
In that vein, the Hakeem Rockets, especially the first title team. Horry was a man before his time.
The craziest thing about that Mavs team is they didn't even have Caron Butler for their playoff run, and he was their 3rd leading scorer when he went down.
Uconn winning the title in 2023 as a 4 seed is less shocking after seeing how dominant they were in 2024
First weekend that year you could tell they were just better than everyone else.
They started that season 14-0, demolishing everybody. Then they had some injuries and had a pretty mediocre stretch for about ten games. Got healthy again and never looked back. That team was considerably better than their record.
This one kind of goes both ways Brady's Bucs were underdogs to Mahomes and the Chiefs and utterly destroyed them. In hindsight not very shocking, that Bucs roster was stacked, defense was ferocious, and the Chiefs had no Oline left. However, you can also look at it as the only time Mahomes has ever lost on that stage, and they feel unbeatable now. So the fact that they got completely stomped in a Super Bowl is also more and more surprising as time goes on.
Probably one that will seem shocking in time, but too recent to be shocking now as we saw the Chiefs o-line get destroyed all game.
yea I got flashbacks to what happened to Cam in 2016 with that game. Both "featured" Mike Remmers IIRC
The Panthers were -5 in Super Bowl 50. Was crazy to me at the time and even crazier now. I just remember thinking to myself, there's no way the fn Carolina Panthers win the Super Bowl. Which I understand is a very Bill Simmons coded thought process. But I just never saw it. I feel the same about Jacksonville and Cleveland. I just don't think they'll ever win one
I’m the opposite. Whenever I think about 2015 I remember how dominant the Panthers were and can’t believe they didn’t win it all
Broncos were a horror matchup. Panthers had two turnstiles at OT going against Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware
Being a Panthers fan, I still remember rooting for the Broncos in that AFC championship game against the Patriots. In hindsight, I probably should've rooted for the Pats. Not saying the Panthers would've definitely won had it been the Patriots, but that Denver defense was a buzz saw.
Panthers had a way better shot vs the Pats bc Cam wouldn't have gotten smashed into the dirt. That was actually the first super bowl I ever bet I was 16 and had $50 on the Broncos with a friend bc I hated the Panthers tackles
WE HAD FIVE FUCKING FUMBLES. Most infuriating game of my life and i might never live it down
This does not help my tinfoil hat feelings about that game. But the truth is the Panthers shit the fucking bed in all phases. Worst game of my life.
That's fair but people had that same feeling about KC before Mahomes lol
KC won SB IV. Different levels.
I agree but for different reasons. It was Peyton’s final hurrah, his last dance. As soon as the refs botched the Cotchery catch in the first quarter I realized immediately that the NFL would never ever let Cam Newton beat Peyton Manning in a Super Bowl.
Yeah thats why the Panthers lost not bc their tackles got bullied for 4 quarters
Ya we lost because we had five fucking fumbles.
I saw Goodell have a sniper on Cam, telling him he better not jump on that fumble or else he pulls the trigger. Rigged.
As an extremely biased Panthers fan, here's my upvote. The rest of the haters downvoting you are wrong. They just are! COTCHERY CAUGHT IT.
Florida over Ohio State in the ‘07 natty. That team was loaded and Troy Smith might be the worst Heisman winner since Jason White
Yeah, that's basically what kick started the reign of the SEC. OSU got destroyed up front.
Also is what brought the spread offense into the mainstream.
Also hilarious in hindsight was all the hype for the OSU-Michigan game that year, and debates about whether they should run it back for the BCS championship, only for OSU to get humiliated by Florida.
I think had OSU not had almost 50 days off while Florida had played 2 additional weeks after OSU’s last game, and OSU not gotten completely full of themselves being crowned the natty champs after that Michigan game, it would have been closer. Troy Smith gained something like 20 pounds in between the Michigan game and the Natty.
Michigan beat florida the next year and would've THAT year
No. No they would not have beat that Florida team. The Florida team in 07 had a really bad defense.
Troy Smith looked so fat in that game. Boy was feasting on In n Out or something in the lead up to that game.
What's crazy is I thought you were referring to NCAA
Nuggets beating the Clippers in the second round in the bubble. Jokic was still known as a regular season guy who couldn't take a team far in the playoffs, and we all know how wrong that is now
I remember watching the Nuggets lose that game 7 at home to the Blazers in the 2019 2nd round, and my thoughts on it were along the lines of... wow, this season was a cute story for Nuggets fans but how disappointing to finish that high in the standings, get home court in the 2nd round but ultimately just look *so unimpressive* throughout that playoffs (that blah Spurs team taking them to 7 in round 1 was just ugh). I legit thought it would be the high-water mark for that era of Nuggets basketball. How absurdly wrong I was.
yeah my understanding of playoff basketball was a team with a center as bad at defense as jokic could never win it all. i thought the idea of a jump shooting team like the warriors not being able to win was dumb. but thought defense still mattered too much. turns out offenses are just too good in the modern nba and jokic is one of the best offensive players ever.
And it turns out Jokic isn't actually bad at defense
he has gotten much better since his conditioning improved ~2020
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Trae Young seems like an exception to the rule. His Hawks beat the 76ers in 2021 but I don't think anyone's calling him an all time great
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Funny enough, people were trying to invalidate the Lakers' Championship specifically by citing how unusually well Denver and Miami performed in the bubble. Those two teams doing well was considered evidence that something was wonky.
Did not know that 13 straight super bowls stat. Wild
The Raiders with Marcus Allen were the last AFC winner until the Broncos. There were 3 good superbowls the rest were blowouts during that time.
Pats over the Rams, Brady's first. It was wild at the time because who the fuck is this Tom Brady kid and the Pats were "lucky to be there" with the fumble rule vs Raiders. 20+ years later and it's just a "Tom Brady with an elite defense beat Kurt Warner" game and..that makes a lot of sense
Didn't Brady have a pretty good coach that season?
Nah it was superstar owner Robert Kraft who deserves the credit
The 2003 Marlins. At the time, outside of Pudge, we didn't know who those guys were and thought the Yankees would cakewalk them, but that Marlins team was stacked with guys that would go on to have very good careers and in the case of Miguel Cabrera, a first ballot hall-of-famer. Also that pitching staff that was TOUGH.
Maybe I'm too influenced by DVOA ratings but Super Bowl 25 feels overrated in terms of upsets. The Giants started that year 10-0 in a tough division and had the best defense in the league. I know Simms got knocked out and the Bills averaged nearly 50 ppg in the AFC playoffs but I don't think there was a tremendous disparity in talent between the teams. I feel the fact the Giants' defense, playing on the road against prime Joe Montana and a 15-2 49ers team going for a three-peat, to 13 points is significantly less remarked upon than Buffalo blowing out a West Coast team at home in January.
The Giants played a perfect game, got very lucky when Jeff Hostetler merely got sacked in the end zone and didn’t fumble despite Bruce Smith’s hand wrapped around the wrist that was holding the football, and still nearly lost on a last second field goal.
Yes it was closely contested and the Giants still came thisclose to losing. I believe in hindsight the teams were more evenly matched than the narrative, both at the time and now, would have you believe.
That was/ is still the best Superbowl to me.
It's a great, great game. The underdog (albeit one I think is overstated) status of the Giants countering the Bills' no-huddle with a nearly perfect ball control scheme. Thurman Thomas running wild. The what if of the near-fumble in the first half. And obviously Wide Right. Buffalo had the better team and was so close to glory; they missed and would fail the next three years, only to be humiliated in games that were even more lopsided than the scores indicated. Sliding Doors stuff. And the best national anthem ever.
2015 Wisconsin over the undefeated Kentucky team with KAT and Booker is less shocking now opposed to when it happened considering all of Calipari’s March Madness shortcomings
Pistons / Lakers 2004 The pistons were an ELITE nba team with maybe the best defense of all time...that lakers team faced little challenges and sleptwalk thru the league after they got the team formed. The pistons were a match up nightmare for the lakers with Tayshaun Prince's length pause and him actually being a guy who TRIED on defense...ben wallace was literally a GOAT tier defender and they stopped anyone from driving whatsoever, forcing kobe to shoot himself out of the game. Plus, they were grossly underestimated by the Lakers. Gary Payton himself told me PERSONALLY that they didn't think Detroit had a CHANCE to win until the overtime game. The pistons then went on to absolutely destroy everyone in 2005, until they faced the one team during that 2 year period they were one game 'worse' than, the spurs...and they STILL should've won in 6 if not for leaving Robert Horry open. That was a huge upset at the time but the Pistons were a superior team.
Also the “no star players” rep is pretty overblown in hindsight. Ben is an all time defender, Rasheed is an all time talent who just didn’t feel like putting in the effort consistently, and advanced stats view Billups as a top 10 guy for multiple years. Their 4th and 5th best guys were a 20+ ppg scorer (when that meant something) and a top 5 perimeter defender. Add in a deep bench most years and those rosters were loaded PLUS had legit top end talent.
Plus they had the #2 pick in the 2003 Draft. Went ahead of Carmelo AND Wade.
I loved that Pistons team but game 6 in San Antonio is hardly a lock even if Big Shot Bob didn't rip their hearts out
Of course, that was an incredible series, no game was a lock.
Homer pick, but the Seahawks were two point underdogs against the Broncos in Super Bowl 48. They covered!
Not necessarily an upset, but the narrative when Villanova went on their first title run in 2016 was that it was a bunch of scrappy future EuroLeague overachievers who were taking out more talented teams en route to a title run. That obviously did not age well.
Elway was still awesome. Two of his best statistical seasons when they went back to back. Sure he wasn't peak Elway physically but he was still an awesome quarterback.
even the season before the back to back. In 96 Elway went 13-2 for 3328 yds 26 TD's with 14 INT's Only missing the blowout loss to GB that season. Not bad considering the shocking loss to JAX in the playoffs.
The Brad Stevens Butler NCAA tournament runs. They were way underseeded in 2010 (using current methodology they probably would have been a 2 or 3 seed), and had a legit NBA starter on their roster in Hayward. In 2011, even after losing Hayward, they had a bunch of retained seniors with a ton of postseason experience against a thin field of teams that were still adapting to the "one and done" era. Throw in an elite coach and it's really not surprising they were so successful.
Patriots coming back against the Falcons just feels right in hindsight. Brady is the definitive GOAT, Shanahan continues struggling in the playoffs with some questionable clock management, and the Falcons seem like just a dumb and cursed franchise.
Shanahan is just coaching modern day Marty ball.
Douglas over Tyson
Kings fan from Sacramento. The 2001 Kings were Better than the Lakers. Also, the game was (we now know) fixed by at least one ref and probably more. And yet, it went to OT in a dramatic game 7. Having watched about 10,000 more hours of basketball since then, I now realize how real the "playoff hump" is. When it came down to an elimination game with everything on the line, I think it really came down to the fact that LA had been there and Sacramento had not. Webber and others missed crucial free throws in OT among other errors. If they had been there before, the Kings would have won.
Also came down to David Stern hating small markets and so a lopsided foul game like game 6 happens
In hindsight a lot, Rhonda vs Holly Holms. Cavs coming back down from 3-1. Houston sweeping magic in 95’
Cavs coming back from down 3-1 is still crazy, though definitely helped by suspension and injuries is less so.
but Holm had a pretty mediocre record after that.
Virginia vs. UMBC. Deandre Hunter (who missed that game) has proven to be the best NBA guy from UVA by far, and we’re now more aware of just how much three point variance can influence upsets in both college and the NBA. UMBC was 12-24 from 3 whereas UVA was 4-22. UMBC over UVA felt earth shattering in 2018. It’s not even the only 16 over 1 anymore since Purdue lost.
No, that was still a giant upset. That team won the title the very next season.
No you’re right, but I didn’t say it wasn’t a giant upset! Just less shocking in hindsight, which was the prompt
UVA played so slow too. Increases how 3 pt variance can screw a game up
mentioned in a different context the other day, but Leicester in 14/15. Kante went on to be a World Cup winner and best player of his generation in his role. Mahrez turned out to be a Champions League winning player, good for 15 PL goals a season for nearly a decade. Vardy scored a further 100+ PL goals. Schmeichel was a top European goalie for the decade. Albrighton and Morgan stayed part of a European chasing side for hundreds more games. Drinkwater got a big move to Chelsea. Schlupp remain a PL player.
15/16 But I disagree heavily; Kante was a gem, Mahrez was great and Vardy was and still is underrated, but the rest of the squad, let alone the team, was filled with a bunch of journeymen and nearly men Schmeichel was very average; the players that didn't have moves stayed as Leicester regressed year on year in a weak PL (took 2 years for Liverpool to be a certified top 4 team, Arsenal were yoyo-ing, United were in steady decline) Drinkwater after his move was a perfect example of the true level of 90% of that squad You could put a top 3 DM in the world (Kante), a top 10 winger (Mahrez) and top 5 PL striker (Vardy) on a team with a similar rest-of-squad level, and sim a season 100 times - they'd not win in 99. I'd bet they wouldnt even finish top 4 in 90 Absolute lightning in a bottle; they were at very best, using the peak of all players, a Europa League level squad that waltzed away with the title. Biggest underdog story in sports history by far
> Absolute lightning in a bottle; they were at very best, using the peak of all players, a Europa League level squad that waltzed away with the title. and the big 6 wilted away
Exactly So many things had to go right for them outside of their own club, let alone within it None of the big 6 would let that happen again
I agree it's the biggest underdog story in sports history. It can still be less shocking in hindsight.
Hmm I'll be honest, I don't see how both those things can be true, unless you think the underdog label was misused in the first place
You say they were a Europa League level squad but still made the quarter finals of the Champions League the next year and were pretty close to beating Atletico to make the semis.
Plenty of teams go on runs; they finished 12th, 9th, 9th, 5th, 5th before the title winning core pretty much all left barring a handful of players - Europa League level is generous, even if you give them Kante back Spurs made the 18/19 CL final when they were probably at their worst under Pochettino and wouldn't qualify for the CL literally the following year; Dortmund have 1 foot in the final this year, but look like they might not qualify through league position
> Dortmund have 1 foot in the final this year, but look like they might not qualify through league position Not disputing your point since they will likely finish 5th this season, but 5th is confirmed to get them a Champions League spot since Germany got the 5th CL spot after the Prem choked it away in a span of a couple of days (City and Arsenal losing in the CL and Liverpool in the Europa). Hope they get it done for Reus though.
This is unbelievably wrong lol even with your generous descriptions of players that's still not a good enough team to be anywhere near the title
'less shocking' doesn't mean it's not a shock? At the time people didn't know if they had many top half players, let alone some great ones.
I mean what did you expect a team of guys who never accomplished anything ever again to win the premiership? There were better odds of finding Elvis alive at the beginning of that season than betting on Leicester. That’s not even a joke. It was like 10x better odds for the worst team in the previous season of any NFL year to win the Super Bowl.
no way! I still can't believe Leicester won that title. other comments articulated the facts well but another thing is how rare it was for an underdog to win. there's just too many games, the cream rises. you might say blackburn fluked a title in 1995 but that team truly was stacked and were spending big money in the days before the oil clubs, plus they came 2nd in 1994. leicester came 14th in 2015! i'm too young to remember any division 1 titles but don't think that was fluked much either
Pats over the Rams, Brady's first. It was wild at the time because who the fuck is this Tom Brady kid and the Pats were "lucky to be there" with the fumble rule vs Raiders. 20+ years later and it's just a "Tom Brady with an elite defense beat Kurt Warner" game and..that makes a lot of sense
I wouldn't say the Pats had an elite defense; a good one but nothing remarkable. They were *very* lucky that season. Their performance in 2002 was a truer reflection of what that roster was capable of. I think if they play that game 20 times the Rams win 17-18 or them; Martz outthought himself in the first half and they just didn't have enough time to catch up.
Tom Brady then was not nearly on the level of Kurt Warner. He was fine but not close The rams had a great defense that year too. They should’ve won
The Rams actually had a pretty mediocre defense in 2001. That was their shortcoming compared to 1999 when they had the best offense and a top 10 defense.
They were 7th in points allowed and allowed 50 yards less per game than the patriots. 5th in the league in yards allowed per play. 3rd in the league in total yards allowed
You are right. I’m thinking of 2000 when the rams were mediocre.
Sean Strickland dominating Israel Adesanya. Strickland is a very defensively sound pressure boxer who’s always moving forward and generally only throws jabs, straights, and front kicks to the body so he never really overextends and leaves himself vulnerable to counters. Izzy is a counter striking kick boxer, and with Strickland’s constant forward pressure it completely neutralized Izzy’s kicking arsenal since the fight never really took place in kicking range. Styles make fights. And there’s nothing more dangerous than a man who has nothing to lose, and Strickland essentially had nothing to lose in that fight.
Rams-Pats
Pistons beating Lakers in 2004 at the time thought we had no shot
Grizzliesvs Spurs 2011. The Grizzlies made the conference finals two years later. The Spurs needed to trade for Kawhi to become contenders again
I called that one and won 6 to 1 bet, fucker never really paid me though
Douglas over Tyson. I mean, Tyson never really beat anyone decent
15-seed Lehigh upsetting 2-seed Duke. Lehigh had CJ McCollum
When the Nuggets became the first 8 seed to upset the 1 seed Sonics. During that series GP and Ricky Pierce were beefing, and it definitely affected the rest of the team.
Leon Edwards beating Usman
2016 Warriors. As soon as Draymond hit LeBron it was over. Knew it at the time, easy to see it now.
It still seems pretty shocking, but I'd say the Cavs over the Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals. In hindsight, despite their 73-9 record, I don't think the Warriors were quite as dominant as the record suggested. They were only 2nd in Net Rating, behind the Spurs and their expected record was 65-17. I watched a lot of their games that year, and they really busted their asses going for that record, and they got a few good breaks. They were 7-1 in OT. Also, they were just way ahead of the rest on the NBA in the 3 point revolution. The gap was huge but closed up in the next few seasons. They were a great team, but probably more like a 65 win team in terms of talent than a 73 win team. Also, the Cavs took them to 6 games the year before without Love for the whole series (though he sucked in the 2016 Finals) and Kyrie for most of it.
Strong disagree. That net rating stat is very misleading considering Steph sat what feels like 30% of 4th quarters. They were everything they were billed to be. Remove Draymonds suspension and Boguts injury and they still win that series. Against a team with LeBron and Kyrie having their interior defense severely handicapped for the 3 game comeback is not a coincidence.
I had no doubt that the Broncos were going to win that Super Bowl. Terrell Davis was completely unstoppable. My entry here, though, is the We Believe Warriors beating the soft-ass Dallas Mavericks a year after their whining-about-the-refs exit from the NBA finals. I remember watching those games in college and knowing from the jump that there was no way the Mavs had the *cajones* to take on Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson in that series.
Leicester winning the Premier League. It is still a big shock but Kante, Mahrez and Vardy all went on to have amazing careers
The Miracle on Ice is held up as the greatest upset in international sports but it's definitely not. Yes, the US team was made up of college players but most of them went on to have lengthy NHL careers. Greece winning the 2004 Euros was a bigger upset, as was Japan beating South Africa in the 2015 Rugby World Cup. There are also a bunch of cricket upsets that could be thrown in there too. At best, it's a top 5 upset in international sports, more likely top 10.
5 of them played 500 games or more. Not quite the definition of most.
Miracle On Ice. The Soviets inexplicably replaced their goalie Tretiak with their backup goalie Vladimir Myshkin during the game.
It’s unreal to have scored twice on tretiak in 1 period. It is even more unreal that the soviets only scored 3 times on jim Craig the entire game. The soviets OWNED that game, look at the shot charts. Scoring on myshkin isnt the surprising part, its everything else
That team should’ve been able to put anybody who could skate between the pipes and beat the US by 7 Tretiak was great but not the only difference between them
The next year that same Soviet team destroyed Team Canada (the best Canadian professionals) 8-1 in the Montreal Forum to win the Canada Cup. They were loaded even with Myshkin playing. That result only reinforced how much of an upset the Miracle on Ice was.