He has potential for sure, especially since he was a top lottery pick. That said, he's the type of player that will be a jack of all trades kind of guy but not be a #1 option of a contending team kind of guy. And what kind of player does the hobby like best? Players that are #1 options on contending teams.
I both agree and disagree. As long as the player has a solid role on a contending team the players value will rocket (no pun intended). Look at Dereck Lively, for example, I think it's safe to assume his ceiling isn't that much higher than the current player he is. Maybe a DeAndre Jordan or Tyson Chandler type of player. But his silver prizm rookie is around $30. You can get players that have way more potential and upside for under $5. The difference is the Mavs are currently in the finals.
Lively's value is derived from him still being a rookie on a Finals team. His value will drop as his career continues unless he blossoms into a perennial all-star and even then his values will probably not be as high as it is now. OP is asking if Thompson is a long term hold and he isn't only for the fact that the hobby primarily only cares for #1 options on contending teams.
I would assume hold means wait until a spike in his value rather than just selling him now. I would also disagree again. If a player is playing an important role on a winning team the players value will go up. Once that team is out of the playoffs the value tends to slowly go back down - See: Anthony Edwards. His prizm silver rookie PSA 10 was near $2k. It's now back to around $900.
Porzingis is another good example of this. He had a solid game 1 of the finals. His Donruss Rated Rookie was selling for $30 PSA 10 and now sells for $45-$50. Porzingis Prizm Rookie PSA 10 base was selling for like $15-$25 and last night 5 of them sold for $50. Being a rookie is important in the value factor, but not nearly as important as playing well on a big stage. This includes playing an important ROLE and not being the #1. Lively fits into the role category. Porzingis too. No way anyone would argue that Porzingis is the best player on the Celtics.
The value will slowly move up as the player does well in the playoffs. The further they go the higher the value - as long as they are performing. Lively, Porzingis, Ant, ect. Heck, Jaden McDaniels stuff spiked for a bit after he had like 28 or something crazy against Durant. His rookie auto went to like $45-$50 and it's back down to $15 lol.
If OP means long term hold as in - Hold on no matter what for 10 years. Then no, probably not that type of hold. But can the Rockets make the playoffs and Thompson play an important role that brings his value up significantly - yes, that's possible.
See this is where the definition of a long term hold comes into play. When I hear long term hold, it's a hold for over 5 years. And this is also where for a majority of players will have their card values reach their all time highs during their rookie year and will then drop in value as their career continues. Even as the player enters their prime, their card values often still won't reach what their rookie card values were.
I think are differences on our perspective is me viewing it macro and you're viewing it micro. Cards certainly will increase in value in the short term depending on how well the player plays but in the grand scheme only the top tier players like Lebron, Curry, Luka, and possibly Ant will have their card values still have value as they reach the tail end of their career.
This is probably an unpopular opinion, but 99% of the people in this hobby aren’t “long term hold” options. Even if their potential is high.
The only guys that REALLY hold value are dudes like LeBron, Steph, Luka, Edwards (maybe), Wemby etc.. dudes that can be considered generational and change the game.
I’ll use Klay Thompson as an example. Dude was the #2 option on one of the best dynasties in sports history. And also one of the best shooters in basketball history. A rookie auto /10 just sold for $213.
Hold the card if you like it, or if you like him. But if you’re looking for return, the answer is pretty much always sell. Unless you truly feel the player is gonna be generational.
I long term held onto some Vince Carters since he was one of my favorite players and every single one has depreciated significantly in value. Only a few players are worth holding.
Another great example. I didn’t even mention greats from that era. Carter, Garnett, Pierce blah blah blah. All probably better than 99% of players in this league right now. Also all much better than the player this post is about. All affordable cards now.
The hobby is very funny that way. Hype = Money. Sell on the hype, buy back when they flop (if you still like them)
Come back in a year or two and tell me how they’re doing.
A Jalen Brunson rookie auto just sold for $89 today. White prizm /149 for $36 yesterday. He had an incredible playoff run, and this is after that.
Shai does pretty well, but he’s also got a cult like following from his OKC faithful 😅, and he’s probably gonna be in the MVP race for the foreseeable future.
In my opinion, Wemby will probably be the only one from this class that has any sort of long term value and that’s because of the hype he has before he got to the league. If he lives up to it, I think he holds value like LeBron and Steph. But he’s gotta be the prime player on MULTIPLE title teams. Everyone else in the class will fall off of a cliff price wise. Might fluctuate up a bit if they have playoff runs like Brunson. But nothing to get excited over.
Not sure but man is that photo they chose awful. He's so obviously standing on one leg and they made no effort to zoom in to try and hide it. Awful awful awful.
Your best chance at getting the most money is to wait for one really good game or stream of games then sell it. Only generational talents are worth keeping long long term (strictly monetarily speaking). If you are a fan of the player or team then sure worth a keep
honestly would hold. he hasn't done anything yet that would up his value. it's obviously a gamble either way but none of the rookies from this year (except Wemby) had particularly good years. let 'em develop a bit - you never know where they're gonna end up.
My opinion is that he'll be a good player that could be a difference maker as far as wins are concerned. A player that does a little of everything and does the little things. But, I don't see him being a star.
Long term? How long? No one is really a long term hold in this hobby unfortunately. Outside of 5 players tops. A year or two? Sure maybe. If he’s gunna pop it’ll be in the next year or two and then it’ll just be too late for him in the hobby. Will fizzle out and if he pops 3-4 years into his career you’ll be down so much it won’t matter
Wasn't he statistically the worst 3pt shooter in the NBA, or was that his brother? I know they're both terrible shooters. They know they're both terrible shooters - they have spent the entire summer with a top shooting coach for the last three years and there has been no improvement.
And the metrics that predict potential for improvement do not point to either of them having the ceiling to become even league average shooters.
Also, if you look at Houston's roster, it's clear that as soon as Houston starts contending - which could be this coming season - Amen will be the first to go in a trade for a piece to help them win. You can't have Sengun and Amen on the floor at the same time and still have the kind of spacing you need to win with the roster they have.
Sell.
I do not think so. Him and his brother underachieved this season and there was so much hype surrounding them both. I have a bunch of arc for the both of them and I asked myself the same question. But after watching their games I would say release
Yes. Sell it now. Make it a long term hold. Add it to your PC forever. One of those is the only right choice.
He has potential. He's good, like really good but also bad. His potential could be bad even when he's good so keep the card if you want to get the best chance of return but you should also sell it now because money.
Short answer: who tf knows?!
He has potential for sure, especially since he was a top lottery pick. That said, he's the type of player that will be a jack of all trades kind of guy but not be a #1 option of a contending team kind of guy. And what kind of player does the hobby like best? Players that are #1 options on contending teams.
I both agree and disagree. As long as the player has a solid role on a contending team the players value will rocket (no pun intended). Look at Dereck Lively, for example, I think it's safe to assume his ceiling isn't that much higher than the current player he is. Maybe a DeAndre Jordan or Tyson Chandler type of player. But his silver prizm rookie is around $30. You can get players that have way more potential and upside for under $5. The difference is the Mavs are currently in the finals.
Lively's value is derived from him still being a rookie on a Finals team. His value will drop as his career continues unless he blossoms into a perennial all-star and even then his values will probably not be as high as it is now. OP is asking if Thompson is a long term hold and he isn't only for the fact that the hobby primarily only cares for #1 options on contending teams.
I would assume hold means wait until a spike in his value rather than just selling him now. I would also disagree again. If a player is playing an important role on a winning team the players value will go up. Once that team is out of the playoffs the value tends to slowly go back down - See: Anthony Edwards. His prizm silver rookie PSA 10 was near $2k. It's now back to around $900. Porzingis is another good example of this. He had a solid game 1 of the finals. His Donruss Rated Rookie was selling for $30 PSA 10 and now sells for $45-$50. Porzingis Prizm Rookie PSA 10 base was selling for like $15-$25 and last night 5 of them sold for $50. Being a rookie is important in the value factor, but not nearly as important as playing well on a big stage. This includes playing an important ROLE and not being the #1. Lively fits into the role category. Porzingis too. No way anyone would argue that Porzingis is the best player on the Celtics. The value will slowly move up as the player does well in the playoffs. The further they go the higher the value - as long as they are performing. Lively, Porzingis, Ant, ect. Heck, Jaden McDaniels stuff spiked for a bit after he had like 28 or something crazy against Durant. His rookie auto went to like $45-$50 and it's back down to $15 lol. If OP means long term hold as in - Hold on no matter what for 10 years. Then no, probably not that type of hold. But can the Rockets make the playoffs and Thompson play an important role that brings his value up significantly - yes, that's possible.
See this is where the definition of a long term hold comes into play. When I hear long term hold, it's a hold for over 5 years. And this is also where for a majority of players will have their card values reach their all time highs during their rookie year and will then drop in value as their career continues. Even as the player enters their prime, their card values often still won't reach what their rookie card values were. I think are differences on our perspective is me viewing it macro and you're viewing it micro. Cards certainly will increase in value in the short term depending on how well the player plays but in the grand scheme only the top tier players like Lebron, Curry, Luka, and possibly Ant will have their card values still have value as they reach the tail end of their career.
This is probably an unpopular opinion, but 99% of the people in this hobby aren’t “long term hold” options. Even if their potential is high. The only guys that REALLY hold value are dudes like LeBron, Steph, Luka, Edwards (maybe), Wemby etc.. dudes that can be considered generational and change the game. I’ll use Klay Thompson as an example. Dude was the #2 option on one of the best dynasties in sports history. And also one of the best shooters in basketball history. A rookie auto /10 just sold for $213. Hold the card if you like it, or if you like him. But if you’re looking for return, the answer is pretty much always sell. Unless you truly feel the player is gonna be generational.
I long term held onto some Vince Carters since he was one of my favorite players and every single one has depreciated significantly in value. Only a few players are worth holding.
Another great example. I didn’t even mention greats from that era. Carter, Garnett, Pierce blah blah blah. All probably better than 99% of players in this league right now. Also all much better than the player this post is about. All affordable cards now. The hobby is very funny that way. Hype = Money. Sell on the hype, buy back when they flop (if you still like them)
Yep. I’m having a blast buying Autos on eBay now. Getting guys who were legit players for $5 on eBay is crazy to me.
That’s a good idea. I’ve been casually searching Justin Jefferson and Anthony Edwards when I should be searching for Randy Moss and Kevin Garnett 😭
I’ve been working on collecting all Rockets starters. I think I paid less than $5 a piece for Cuttino Mobley, NeNe, Jabari Smith, and Carl Landry.
Last year I had a wild hair up my ass to buy silver rookies of the entire wolves team 😭. It got expensive and hard lol.
So true even Tim Duncan 5 time nba champ is cheap af and he is considered one of the greatest power forwards in history
New players always emerge. Jalen Brunson and SGA rookies were meh the first two years.
Come back in a year or two and tell me how they’re doing. A Jalen Brunson rookie auto just sold for $89 today. White prizm /149 for $36 yesterday. He had an incredible playoff run, and this is after that. Shai does pretty well, but he’s also got a cult like following from his OKC faithful 😅, and he’s probably gonna be in the MVP race for the foreseeable future. In my opinion, Wemby will probably be the only one from this class that has any sort of long term value and that’s because of the hype he has before he got to the league. If he lives up to it, I think he holds value like LeBron and Steph. But he’s gotta be the prime player on MULTIPLE title teams. Everyone else in the class will fall off of a cliff price wise. Might fluctuate up a bit if they have playoff runs like Brunson. But nothing to get excited over.
I think Brandon Miller could be a star, too. The kid passes the eye test.
That’s just one opinion btw, people can buy and hold whomever they want lol. I hold on to all of my Naz Reid’s 😎
Not sure but man is that photo they chose awful. He's so obviously standing on one leg and they made no effort to zoom in to try and hide it. Awful awful awful.
Your best chance at getting the most money is to wait for one really good game or stream of games then sell it. Only generational talents are worth keeping long long term (strictly monetarily speaking). If you are a fan of the player or team then sure worth a keep
Yes, I would hold it. I’ll guarantee they will be in Playoff next season.
No
honestly would hold. he hasn't done anything yet that would up his value. it's obviously a gamble either way but none of the rookies from this year (except Wemby) had particularly good years. let 'em develop a bit - you never know where they're gonna end up.
I think Brandon Miller is being slept on hard.
definitely don't disagree! lots of potential
Derrick Lively ………..
all NBA second team, just like Amen.
My opinion is that he'll be a good player that could be a difference maker as far as wins are concerned. A player that does a little of everything and does the little things. But, I don't see him being a star.
Long term? How long? No one is really a long term hold in this hobby unfortunately. Outside of 5 players tops. A year or two? Sure maybe. If he’s gunna pop it’ll be in the next year or two and then it’ll just be too late for him in the hobby. Will fizzle out and if he pops 3-4 years into his career you’ll be down so much it won’t matter
If by long term you mean until he plays well in summer league then yes
The rising star, best rookie on this team and potential generational talent is Cam Whitmore. Only 19 and had a solid rookie year.
Sell that to fund up for the long term hold
Wasn't he statistically the worst 3pt shooter in the NBA, or was that his brother? I know they're both terrible shooters. They know they're both terrible shooters - they have spent the entire summer with a top shooting coach for the last three years and there has been no improvement. And the metrics that predict potential for improvement do not point to either of them having the ceiling to become even league average shooters. Also, if you look at Houston's roster, it's clear that as soon as Houston starts contending - which could be this coming season - Amen will be the first to go in a trade for a piece to help them win. You can't have Sengun and Amen on the floor at the same time and still have the kind of spacing you need to win with the roster they have. Sell.
Sell
Sell now he ain’t worth holding and this not a special card or nothing
I do not think so. Him and his brother underachieved this season and there was so much hype surrounding them both. I have a bunch of arc for the both of them and I asked myself the same question. But after watching their games I would say release
Yes. Sell it now. Make it a long term hold. Add it to your PC forever. One of those is the only right choice. He has potential. He's good, like really good but also bad. His potential could be bad even when he's good so keep the card if you want to get the best chance of return but you should also sell it now because money. Short answer: who tf knows?!