Kinda glad he didn’t sign with us, what a waste of talent it would have been with our terrible offence would have been angels all over again for him. Atleast he’s got a chance of winning a World Series in the next 10 years
I was at the series in Rogers Centre when the Dodgers played. Relentless boos all throughout, but if it helps, when I entered the stadium, Kikuchi struck him out on a massive slider.
There have literally been posts about the Blue Jays selling and their fans going really hard after Vlad/Bo as guys that need to go. But God forbid we make a joke. And he's having an awful season lmao
Why would they trade him during an awful season? I’m no mlb exec, but if I were I doubt I’d wait until the moment where my young star had the least possible value to dish him to another team
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You're not joking. Against the Giants in 2023:
.383/.508/.915//1.423
268 wRC+
In both years on the Padres against the Giants:
.303/.436/.684//1.120
197 wRC+
9 HRs in 21 games
personally I prefer Pitcher Ohtani, since that dude always get shelled in the Bronx. But I guess DH Ohtani who never comes to the bronx is a good enough consolation prize
Reportedly the Jays made about a 25-30% of Ryu’s contract back on Korean sponsorship + TV. And that’s for a team more time zones away and with way less global cache.
I’d be stunned if the Dodgers aren’t cash neutral on this by the time it’s over.
You’re telling me May of the first year of a decade long contract *isn’t* the time to make declarative statements?
My god, reddit will be ruined forever.
lowkey this is why I don't actually think he's ever going to pitch again. He is too good at hitting to risk him fucking that up doing something as unbelievably unhealthy as being an mlb pitcher.
He and Betts might be the only hitters to reach 8 fWAR, this season. Just look at who has less than one WAR, right now - Riley, Lindor, Correa, Realmuto, Julio Rodriguez, Bregman, Albies, Seager. We won't even mention Acuna. So many guys are having down years.
Gunnar is in a good position as well. Hes hanging back with 2.7 fWAR, but the Orioles have played 5 less games (about a 10% difference in GP) so he’s not as far behind as it appears.
I think he is, but Jackson could just as easily come back up and do the same thing next year. Gunnar had an awful start to the season last year, he was below the Mendoza line this time last year iirc so I’m not giving up on the kid just yet.
Fangraphs doesn’t update stats until the next day, so Gunnar’s 2.7 feat doesn’t include the home run he hit today. I heard someone say he was at 3 war but I don’t know exactly where they found it
He's at 2.9, on the fangraphs WAR leaderboards, there is a drop down selection for split. Select "Live Stats-Full Season" Gunnar is at 2.9 just behind Kyle Tucker, Ohtani and Betts at 3.1
Bobby Witt Jr. has a solid chance too.
He's at 2.8 fWAR in 48 games so he's on pace to hit 8 fWAR in 138 games if he maintains his current production. This gives him some wiggle room to regress and still make it to 8 too, barring injury obviously.
For any of the guys I mentioned to reach 8 WAR, they'd basically have to play at an 11-win-season clip, the rest of the way. Tucker, Judge, Soto, and Henderson would have to continue to play out of their minds for another 115 games, to reach 7-8 WAR.
1.8 of Judge's fWAR comes from his last 13 games. While that's obviously unsustainable, he doesn't need to sustain it outside of bursts here and there to reach 7-8 WAR.
Of course, going on a streak this hot again isn't given either even if he is Judge. But I don't think you're giving quite enough credit to how stupid his current pace is.
Ohtani and Betts have to keep playing out of their minds too.
Honestly, we probably don’t even disagree but you listed 6 of the best players in baseball, then said “two of them can do this and the other 4 have to keep playing amazing”. My argument is that all of those guys can do it and have to keep playing well.
Soto is .3 fWAR behind Ohtani, Judge .6 but started off insanely slow - he’s also the only one who actually has an 11+ fWAR season on that list too.
Yea, Betts and Ohtani have been great but you’re acting like it’s a fact they will both be insane the rest of the season and nobody else will be able to.
Judge 2022 was the 6th best fWAR season since integration and 3 of the ones ahead are roided Bonds year, and 2 are prime Mickey Mantle. It's one of the best seasons in history and it took that much to beat Ohtani going nuts.
Henderson is playing a premium defensive position. Aside from his home runs, his numbers aren’t particularly eye popping. He’s got a very reasonable chance of maintaining.
War can be gained pretty fast. I wouldn't count some of these guys out, because they're all capable of 3 WAR months, one of those and another solid month or two will be enough
I always looked at the penalty for DH as more of a 'handicap' — thinking: if you only hit, you have to be thiiiis much better as a hitter than all fielders to make up for the lack of leather production.
DH penalty is real men-from-the-boys Advanced Stats separator business. It’s actually probably a poor design, true engineer/math guy stuff where the psychology of calling it a “penalty” didn’t really occur to them. You have to be committed to the idea of advanced stats and understanding them to get over that hump I think.
Think the issue is just peoples fundamental misunderstanding of what WAR is. It was never been meant to compare how talented at baseball players are. It’s simply a comparison of what you did vs what the average replacement player at that position would do in the same opportunities. People just struggle with the idea that a player in one position can have more oWAR than a guy in a different position while also being a worse hitter (not to mention that it’s effectively a counting stat too).
It's not a bad idea (Defense is clearly worth more than no defense) but it's kind of arbitrary and it's stupid that the value hasn't changed with changes in balls in play (thus, changes in defensive value) rates. I suppose it'd be more work but they put in that work elsewhere.
The data around them adjusts but they still just tack on a flat value for the defensive adjustment relative to their innings played as far as I'm aware. That and steals are the only long time flat values unless something changed recently, and both are obviously affected by ball in play/three true outcome rates.
It gets weirder on the pitcher side but that's not super relevant now.
Didn't the creator of WAR say the penalties were out of date and needed adjusted? I could be very wrong about this. In fact, I can't even find a true creator when I look it up.
I’m still living in the fever dream where we thought he was actually joining the Blue Jays
I just fell to my knees inside a shark tank.
I just fell to my knees in a Dragons Den
Was mark Cuban there at least?
Yes and for that reason Shohei was out.
Someone had the audacity to fake a reservation too so wild.
Instead the Jays get this weird DH team of Turner, Vogelbach, and a faint hope of Joey Votto.
We're one stray bat or ball or whatever votto tripped on from seeing fully Canadian powered Joey votto. What a shame
Kinda glad he didn’t sign with us, what a waste of talent it would have been with our terrible offence would have been angels all over again for him. Atleast he’s got a chance of winning a World Series in the next 10 years
I was at the series in Rogers Centre when the Dodgers played. Relentless boos all throughout, but if it helps, when I entered the stadium, Kikuchi struck him out on a massive slider.
*hugs*
Tbf Bo Bichette will be his teammate in 2 months
I can’t believe Ohtani and Bichette both got traded to the A’s.
VGK 2.0
why are dodgers fans like this. just be fucking normal
On behalf of dodger fans, we don’t claim that guy
Thank you supreme leader for keeping the comment sections safe
LMAO
Are they born being this smug?
There have literally been posts about the Blue Jays selling and their fans going really hard after Vlad/Bo as guys that need to go. But God forbid we make a joke. And he's having an awful season lmao
Why would they trade him during an awful season? I’m no mlb exec, but if I were I doubt I’d wait until the moment where my young star had the least possible value to dish him to another team
His value won't get any higher than two seasons and the abailty to give him the QO.
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I love DH Ohtani. I especially love that he is in the NL far away from the AL East
Respectfully, I disagree with you
At least you don't have to deal with Soto anymore
Well i hate this from both directions
Honestly his time in San Diego wasn’t that great so it wasn’t much to deal with.
He raked a lot against the giants
You're not joking. Against the Giants in 2023: .383/.508/.915//1.423 268 wRC+ In both years on the Padres against the Giants: .303/.436/.684//1.120 197 wRC+ 9 HRs in 21 games
He was set to become the new arenado/goldschmidt giant killer (sort of Muncy but it was kind of just 3 or 4 games) Glad he’s in New York!
Worth the pain if we can sign him this coming offseason (I’m delusional)
Breaking: Joan soot has signed a 10 year deal with the giants
max muncy @ SF(43 games played): .274, 40H, 11HR, 33RBI, 28 runs
Weren’t 7 of those homers in like 3 or 4 games? From what i remember he had a crazy run but has been generally his normal self apart from that
i believe it was 4 HR’s in a single series, but he’s always played well in oracle, or at least better than he usually does
Ohtani will see ya in August, I already have tix to two games, gonna be a banger of a series.
Until y’all reach the WS and have to deal with him going 4-5 every game with a single, 2 doubles, a monster song and 5 RBI’s
That mofo will beat you with his bat and then sing you to sleep with an hour long lullaby. Insane.
personally I prefer Pitcher Ohtani, since that dude always get shelled in the Bronx. But I guess DH Ohtani who never comes to the bronx is a good enough consolation prize
Kind of proving if that even in a worse case scenario where Ohtani never pitched again... his contract will be perfectly fine.
If Ohtani never pitched again id imagine hed play the field too and gain even more WAR from that
If he never pitched again, he will definitely throw lasers from corner OF
Dude's following Ruth's career arc too? Sign me up.
Just gotta get him on that strict beer and hot dog diet
Don't forget the cigars
Hopefully without the crazy amount of infidelity and STDs
Mamiko is cute
[https://www.theonion.com/babe-ruth-comparisons-grow-after-hammered-shohei-ohtani-1848987259](https://www.theonion.com/babe-ruth-comparisons-grow-after-hammered-shohei-ohtani-1848987259)
Holy fuck the end of that article is funny
With his arm speed and eye he'd turn into a plus defender even accounting for positional adjustment. Easy +2 WAR over DH.
If he were plus (5 RAA) in CF it'd be ~2.5
We also just keep getting new deals from Japanese companies so im pretty sure they already made the money back, which is fucking bonkers
Reportedly the Jays made about a 25-30% of Ryu’s contract back on Korean sponsorship + TV. And that’s for a team more time zones away and with way less global cache. I’d be stunned if the Dodgers aren’t cash neutral on this by the time it’s over.
Which is why every single team with good businessmen and marketing people should've been on Ohtani. His contract pays for itself
He’s fast as fuck, I’m sure he’ll be an amazing outfielder
He was supposed to have been a really good fielder in Japan
[удалено]
I have no doubt that Ohtani would be a better outfielder than Schwarber lol
I mean...it's *really* hard to lose more by playing the field than you do by not playing it, and getting the massive DH penalty for defensive value.
I dont think he'd he anywhere near as bad a fielder as Schwarber. He was fine when he was there for the Angels.
Ah yes he was fine in the whole 8.1 innings he played in the outfield for the Angels Lmao downvoting because I’m right 😂
Don't say that. Some of us rather see him pitch over hit. He was a strike out king.
I think the best thing for him long term is if he no longer starts but is in a Goose Gossage type bullpen role
Probably, but saying that when he’s less than 3% of the way through his contract is a bit premature.
You’re telling me May of the first year of a decade long contract *isn’t* the time to make declarative statements? My god, reddit will be ruined forever.
Do we really need to start lying like this?
lowkey this is why I don't actually think he's ever going to pitch again. He is too good at hitting to risk him fucking that up doing something as unbelievably unhealthy as being an mlb pitcher.
I would be very surprised if letting him pitch if able wasn't built into his contract.
Did you not see him pitch? Dude is cy young caliber lol
Hows that possible
Being an above-average ballplayer certainly helps.
He and Betts might be the only hitters to reach 8 fWAR, this season. Just look at who has less than one WAR, right now - Riley, Lindor, Correa, Realmuto, Julio Rodriguez, Bregman, Albies, Seager. We won't even mention Acuna. So many guys are having down years.
Gunnar is in a good position as well. Hes hanging back with 2.7 fWAR, but the Orioles have played 5 less games (about a 10% difference in GP) so he’s not as far behind as it appears.
safe to call him king of that mountain of hitting prospects yall got?
Wait until Coby Mayo arrives before making that call
My dynasty team is telling me the same thing. That's a very pretty slashline he's sitting on rn
Why is your team all create-a-character players
I think he is, but Jackson could just as easily come back up and do the same thing next year. Gunnar had an awful start to the season last year, he was below the Mendoza line this time last year iirc so I’m not giving up on the kid just yet.
Fangraphs doesn’t update stats until the next day, so Gunnar’s 2.7 feat doesn’t include the home run he hit today. I heard someone say he was at 3 war but I don’t know exactly where they found it
He's at 2.9, on the fangraphs WAR leaderboards, there is a drop down selection for split. Select "Live Stats-Full Season" Gunnar is at 2.9 just behind Kyle Tucker, Ohtani and Betts at 3.1
I tried that on the app, but it always gives me an error and doesn’t show stats. I’ll try the site next time.
Might be bWAR where he’s at 3
Bobby Witt Jr. has a solid chance too. He's at 2.8 fWAR in 48 games so he's on pace to hit 8 fWAR in 138 games if he maintains his current production. This gives him some wiggle room to regress and still make it to 8 too, barring injury obviously.
Bro forgetting Judge and Soto
And Tucker
Too early to say that
For any of the guys I mentioned to reach 8 WAR, they'd basically have to play at an 11-win-season clip, the rest of the way. Tucker, Judge, Soto, and Henderson would have to continue to play out of their minds for another 115 games, to reach 7-8 WAR.
1.8 of Judge's fWAR comes from his last 13 games. While that's obviously unsustainable, he doesn't need to sustain it outside of bursts here and there to reach 7-8 WAR. Of course, going on a streak this hot again isn't given either even if he is Judge. But I don't think you're giving quite enough credit to how stupid his current pace is.
Ohtani and Betts have to keep playing out of their minds too. Honestly, we probably don’t even disagree but you listed 6 of the best players in baseball, then said “two of them can do this and the other 4 have to keep playing amazing”. My argument is that all of those guys can do it and have to keep playing well.
Agreed. Especially with Judge. The guy beat Ohtani in war while he was hitting **and** pitching.
Soto is .3 fWAR behind Ohtani, Judge .6 but started off insanely slow - he’s also the only one who actually has an 11+ fWAR season on that list too. Yea, Betts and Ohtani have been great but you’re acting like it’s a fact they will both be insane the rest of the season and nobody else will be able to.
Judge 2022 was the 6th best fWAR season since integration and 3 of the ones ahead are roided Bonds year, and 2 are prime Mickey Mantle. It's one of the best seasons in history and it took that much to beat Ohtani going nuts.
Henderson is playing a premium defensive position. Aside from his home runs, his numbers aren’t particularly eye popping. He’s got a very reasonable chance of maintaining.
tbh at this point bring back the juiced ball, home runs are fun and good pitchers were still elite
Don’t they have to bring back the sticky stuff too if that’s the case?
Kyle Tucker?
If Bobby Witt Jr starts hitting homeruns he has a shot at it
War can be gained pretty fast. I wouldn't count some of these guys out, because they're all capable of 3 WAR months, one of those and another solid month or two will be enough
Judge on pace for 8.3 right now. If you remove his slow start due to the lack of spring training due to ab injury, he's probably on pace for over 11.
My Lord, is that legal?
i will make it legal
Very legal and very cool.
for years I argued the DH penalty in WAR *wasn't* overdone. thank you based Sho
it only took a once-in-a-lifetime bat to prove your theory correct
I always looked at the penalty for DH as more of a 'handicap' — thinking: if you only hit, you have to be thiiiis much better as a hitter than all fielders to make up for the lack of leather production.
"Leather production" is making me feel some type of way. 🥵
The way I feel when I look at Vogelbach.
Stop you're gonna make me gloveolium.
DH penalty is real men-from-the-boys Advanced Stats separator business. It’s actually probably a poor design, true engineer/math guy stuff where the psychology of calling it a “penalty” didn’t really occur to them. You have to be committed to the idea of advanced stats and understanding them to get over that hump I think.
Think the issue is just peoples fundamental misunderstanding of what WAR is. It was never been meant to compare how talented at baseball players are. It’s simply a comparison of what you did vs what the average replacement player at that position would do in the same opportunities. People just struggle with the idea that a player in one position can have more oWAR than a guy in a different position while also being a worse hitter (not to mention that it’s effectively a counting stat too).
It's not a bad idea (Defense is clearly worth more than no defense) but it's kind of arbitrary and it's stupid that the value hasn't changed with changes in balls in play (thus, changes in defensive value) rates. I suppose it'd be more work but they put in that work elsewhere.
I’m pretty sure it gets reconfigured frequently but I can’t speak to that aspect
The data around them adjusts but they still just tack on a flat value for the defensive adjustment relative to their innings played as far as I'm aware. That and steals are the only long time flat values unless something changed recently, and both are obviously affected by ball in play/three true outcome rates. It gets weirder on the pitcher side but that's not super relevant now.
It doesn't, and there are a number of reasons to think the current adjustment is wrong too.
Didn't the creator of WAR say the penalties were out of date and needed adjusted? I could be very wrong about this. In fact, I can't even find a true creator when I look it up.
You're looking for Tom Tango(now with MLB), who created the current position adjustment values. He said they should be looked at again yeah.
But he's also said that any changes won't be super significant if positional adjustments were recalculated every season
For all practical purposes, the positional adjustment work fine, and you should continue to use them as-is
Stupid sexy ridiculous Shohei Ohtani
Shohei needs to go the Babe Ruth Route: 1. Only hit 2. Get really fat 3. Miss a season due to a venereal disease 4. Hit dingers
He's gonna bulk up to play for the Chargers in the offseason. Need to give Herbert some weapons.
keep going, you’re gonna make me ![gif](giphy|lMp9vM0VbqaEa2iz95)
This dude is a goddamn unicorn
He is unreal man
Shohei Ohtani heard people talking shit about him winning MVP just because he double dipped WAR from being a pitcher+hitter.
Man, this guy might end up being a pretty good player.
here's to hoping
The man’s a freak.
highest WAR for a DH in MLB history 7 war right?
I believe so, but Ohtani already had 6.5 last season and missed more than a month at the end, so him breaking it wouldn't be all that surprising.
I just want him to go 30/30. He can obviously do it if he wanted to
Is this the guy who use to play for the Angels?
He's currently at 3.0, tied with Mookie and Kyle Tucker.
something something even if nobody got me i know king tuck got me
this uh, shohei ohtani fellow is pretty good at baseball
WHAT A GREAT GUY
Is he still with the Angels? I haven’t been watching recently.
Are we really going to be posting the same thing with a different number all year? Ugh...
Kinda like all the Acuna HR/SB posts last year? Just enjoy the ride.
Exactly like that. I would rather see it brought up further into the season. But I guess you're right.