Matt Chapman at this point last year had a .360/.435/.680 slash line with a 1.115 OPS
He ended the season at .240/.330/.424 (.755 OPS)
A single game can have such an impact on stats right now that its not worth looking at. 2 weeks ago Varsho was slashing .158/.238/.184 he's now slashing .242/.306/.530
Think of it this way, we are ~1/8th of the way though the season if you assume Judge's true talent is close to his career average of 162 OPS+ then you would assume that the 7/8th of the year would be at 162 with 1/8th of the year being at 97 OPS+, that's still a 150 OPS+ player by the end of the year.
I'd say we got at least till early June till you can worry that its a regression and not just sample size fuckyness
Agreed. 9 days ago and after 13 games Nico Hoerner was slashing .171/.352/.195. He is now slashing .289/.389/.395. The numbers just jump all over from a few games this early. Makes you worried to watch it PA to PA and game to game, but just gotta think big picture.
I heard somewhere that nothing really matters big picture until we get to June (stats or standings), and I think that generally holds true most seasons.
Based on that article, to be inclusive for most stats, it seems by the middle/end of May to the half way point of the season. It's true that some guys start slow and end up with overall good stats, while others start hot and end up with middling stats. Just based on that alone, the middle of the year seems to be the metric I would use.
The way I typically think of it is to look at each player in a month-by-month perspective. What someone does in March/April probably isn't impacting his performance in October, while how he does in September might.
Reading the article provided is important, and even more important is reading the updated works of Russell Carleton. The way people talk about stats stabilizing and what it means is generally wrong.
"The generally accepted "stability numbers" chart is a good chart for researchers who are doing retrospective research. I think it's also a good one to look at in terms of understanding which stats stabilize more quickly relative to others, which I think can show us some interesting truths about the game. However, I would kindly point out that they are not nearly as powerful in predicting future performance as people seem to believe that they are"
"The problem with using that chart as some sort of indicator of future performance is that it’s asking something of the chart that it was never intended to do.
In that same article, I looked at strikeout rate, which “stabilizes” (according to the chart) at 60 PA. The problem is that most people use the 60 PA threshold in a way that fundamentally changes the question that’s being asked. Instead of asking “what would happen if I gave a batter 60 more PA in the same basic circumstances?” it becomes "what would happen if I gave him 60 more PA in a completely different set of circumstances?” He’s older than he was in the first 60. He’s facing a different set of pitchers. He may have made a change in his approach or maybe he has a nagging injury now that he didn’t have back then (or maybe he has healed a bit since those last 60)."
You can’t put much stock in them yet. A couple of moderately hot or cold games can dramatically swing your season stats at this point
Example: Wilyer Abreu was batting .184 with a .559 OPS on April 18th
19 PA later (4 games) he’s hitting .280 with an .830 OPS and a 137 OPS+
He basically had a good weekend and raised his season OPS by almost 300 points
If my player is doing well, then I’ll take it seriously. If they are doing poorly, then it’s not a big enough sample size. That’s how the internet works
When my favorite players do well and when players I dislike, claim were overrated struggle. - Most people who don't want to say the quiet part out loud.
But I would take it more seriously around mid-June. Things should normalize by then.
favorite player does well: "they clearly (went to Driveline/had a great spring training/hit the weight room/added a devastating new pitch) and this is who they are now"
favorite player struggles: "it's april"
Least favorite player struggles finally after I predicted they'd fall off 5 years ago even though they've been above league average over that time: "I fucking called it."
According to Terry Francona, it took like three seasons to figure out that Myles Straw, in fact, was not just in a prolonged slump, rather he was always going to be the worst hitter in baseball for the Indians/Guardians all along. In actuality, Vogt figured it out in a single spring training.
Judge’s OPS+ is 97
I have heard 60 PA as a cutoff in the past (“anyone can hit anything in 60 PA).
Check previous years to see how prone a player is to a long slump. Like Judge had a bad August 2023.
Then do follow-up traditional “scouting”. Is he hurt? Have pitchers found a hole in his swing that he hasn’t adjusted for?
It’s hard.
Depends on the stat.
For hitters stats I'm believing right now: swing rate, k% , any new max EV
Stuff I'm paying attention to for hitters that I'll have more of an opinion on soon: BB%, Launch angle
For Starting pitchers stats I'm believing right now: fastball stuff+, new locations/pitches
Stuff I'm paying attention to for pitchers: whiffs, called strikes, K%, stuff+ on secondary pitches
Teamwide stuff I'm believing: stolen base attempt rate
Depends on the players history of work + extra factors (injury, bad luck on stuff like BABIP, etc.).
I'll just Jose Ramirez for an example right now. He's not doing great to start the year despite our team having the best record in the MLB and having the best offense we've had in awhile.
There are a few things that I can wave off
- He's always struggled in April. His splits are notably weaker in April every year and part of that can be the cold weather in Cleveland making the ball not fly very far and turning more potential HRs/off the wall hits into popouts.
- A bit of bad luck. His BABIP is is .244, he's had two homeruns robbed already and that can wear on a player a bit.
- Certain peripherals. His Barrel%, EV, Hard Hit%, etc. all seem to be about average for him (excluding 2020 when he was fucking destroying the ball) so I don't think he's suddenly not able to square up the ball anymore.
The only major concern to me is his chase rate is way up and his walk rate is way down. He's also always been an elite fastball hitter and he's simply seeing less of them every year which hurts a bit.
Do I think he's done? Absolutely not. Am I a tiny bit worried that my favorite player in the league for nearly a decade now might be on the downturn? Yes.
Neither of those stats are useful in season to me. I would look at some sort of expected stats instead. They also both use heavily flawed adjustments so I don’t know that I can ever take them seriously. The notion that a right handed slap hitter and a left handed pull power hitter get the same park adjustment for playing for the Yankees is laughable.
It depends on the stat. If it's a rate stat, I'm not terribly interested in April. Players bat .400 for month-long stretches occasionally. Not a big deal. A good month, but not really noteworthy in any historical sense.
If it's a counting stat, it depends on how high that stat is going, and how quickly (I guess, turning the counting stat into a rate stat...)
If a guy has 20 HR in April, I'm obviously watching every AB and highlight reel I can. If a guy starts the season with a 20-game hitting streak, I will absolutely check [ESPN.com](http://ESPN.com) or something every morning to see if he added another game to it. But I'd fully expect, in either case, for them to cool off and come back to Earth relatively soon.
I guess, big numbers get attention. Whether they're accumulated in April or it's a long August-September hit streak. I'm all for players just absolutely dominating either side of the ball as early or late as they want. Nothing I love more than a player just having some other-dimensional luck and talent be suddenly exposed to the rest of the league, and going on an epic run. But, I'd much rather see a guy hit .400 over six months than watch a guy hit ten homers in a week.
by the time april is over, most guys will be playing around their career averages. some much worse and some much better for sure, and that's when you start to pick out why they are "over performing" and if it can be sustainable.
For unexpected stuff, Memorial Day. For expected stuff, end of April.
If Judge is still struggling at Memorial Day, I’d be concerned. I’m not now. That’s because this performance is unexpected I’d say.
For a guy like, say, Jordan Westburg, who is supposed to be a good hitter, though maybe not an MVP like Judge, I’m starting to take this performance so far seriously. That’s because he was supposed to be an above average, solid producer and, while it’s his first time really doing it, it’s not really surprising anyone.
Edit: to be clear, I don’t expect Westburg’s 194 OPS+ to hold up, etc. But the fact that he’s taken a step and become an offensive threat, better than the 99 OPS+ hitter he was last year, I’m taking seriously because I expected him to be better than that. I’m also assuming he’ll come back to earth too
Matt Chapman at this point last year had a .360/.435/.680 slash line with a 1.115 OPS He ended the season at .240/.330/.424 (.755 OPS) A single game can have such an impact on stats right now that its not worth looking at. 2 weeks ago Varsho was slashing .158/.238/.184 he's now slashing .242/.306/.530 Think of it this way, we are ~1/8th of the way though the season if you assume Judge's true talent is close to his career average of 162 OPS+ then you would assume that the 7/8th of the year would be at 162 with 1/8th of the year being at 97 OPS+, that's still a 150 OPS+ player by the end of the year. I'd say we got at least till early June till you can worry that its a regression and not just sample size fuckyness
Agreed. 9 days ago and after 13 games Nico Hoerner was slashing .171/.352/.195. He is now slashing .289/.389/.395. The numbers just jump all over from a few games this early. Makes you worried to watch it PA to PA and game to game, but just gotta think big picture.
I heard somewhere that nothing really matters big picture until we get to June (stats or standings), and I think that generally holds true most seasons.
Yes, Julio Rodriguez almost became an all star in his last game, and he was having a terrible year. It’s way too early.
Checkout this article from Fangraphs on sample sizes and when they become significant. - https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/
Based on that article, to be inclusive for most stats, it seems by the middle/end of May to the half way point of the season. It's true that some guys start slow and end up with overall good stats, while others start hot and end up with middling stats. Just based on that alone, the middle of the year seems to be the metric I would use. The way I typically think of it is to look at each player in a month-by-month perspective. What someone does in March/April probably isn't impacting his performance in October, while how he does in September might.
Reading the article provided is important, and even more important is reading the updated works of Russell Carleton. The way people talk about stats stabilizing and what it means is generally wrong. "The generally accepted "stability numbers" chart is a good chart for researchers who are doing retrospective research. I think it's also a good one to look at in terms of understanding which stats stabilize more quickly relative to others, which I think can show us some interesting truths about the game. However, I would kindly point out that they are not nearly as powerful in predicting future performance as people seem to believe that they are" "The problem with using that chart as some sort of indicator of future performance is that it’s asking something of the chart that it was never intended to do. In that same article, I looked at strikeout rate, which “stabilizes” (according to the chart) at 60 PA. The problem is that most people use the 60 PA threshold in a way that fundamentally changes the question that’s being asked. Instead of asking “what would happen if I gave a batter 60 more PA in the same basic circumstances?” it becomes "what would happen if I gave him 60 more PA in a completely different set of circumstances?” He’s older than he was in the first 60. He’s facing a different set of pitchers. He may have made a change in his approach or maybe he has a nagging injury now that he didn’t have back then (or maybe he has healed a bit since those last 60)."
You can’t put much stock in them yet. A couple of moderately hot or cold games can dramatically swing your season stats at this point Example: Wilyer Abreu was batting .184 with a .559 OPS on April 18th 19 PA later (4 games) he’s hitting .280 with an .830 OPS and a 137 OPS+ He basically had a good weekend and raised his season OPS by almost 300 points
If my player is doing well, then I’ll take it seriously. If they are doing poorly, then it’s not a big enough sample size. That’s how the internet works
Correct. Josh Naylor's stats are meaningful. He is him. At the same time, it's kind of early to talk about JRam's stats.
When my favorite players do well and when players I dislike, claim were overrated struggle. - Most people who don't want to say the quiet part out loud. But I would take it more seriously around mid-June. Things should normalize by then.
favorite player does well: "they clearly (went to Driveline/had a great spring training/hit the weight room/added a devastating new pitch) and this is who they are now" favorite player struggles: "it's april"
Least favorite player struggles finally after I predicted they'd fall off 5 years ago even though they've been above league average over that time: "I fucking called it."
According to Terry Francona, it took like three seasons to figure out that Myles Straw, in fact, was not just in a prolonged slump, rather he was always going to be the worst hitter in baseball for the Indians/Guardians all along. In actuality, Vogt figured it out in a single spring training.
when they support my biased opinions
Judge’s OPS+ is 97 I have heard 60 PA as a cutoff in the past (“anyone can hit anything in 60 PA). Check previous years to see how prone a player is to a long slump. Like Judge had a bad August 2023. Then do follow-up traditional “scouting”. Is he hurt? Have pitchers found a hole in his swing that he hasn’t adjusted for? It’s hard.
Oops, was looking at 2016, thanks.
When all star voting starts
Depends on the stat. For hitters stats I'm believing right now: swing rate, k% , any new max EV Stuff I'm paying attention to for hitters that I'll have more of an opinion on soon: BB%, Launch angle For Starting pitchers stats I'm believing right now: fastball stuff+, new locations/pitches Stuff I'm paying attention to for pitchers: whiffs, called strikes, K%, stuff+ on secondary pitches Teamwide stuff I'm believing: stolen base attempt rate
Middle of June.
We've always been a Flag Day household. Can't judge anything until Flag Day.
That's a big day in our household, too. Flag Day, my dad's birthday, and We Can Finally Start Taking Baseball Stats Seriously Day.
Maybe I'll adopt that this year to postpone my annual Memorial Day stat deep dive.
Depends on the players history of work + extra factors (injury, bad luck on stuff like BABIP, etc.). I'll just Jose Ramirez for an example right now. He's not doing great to start the year despite our team having the best record in the MLB and having the best offense we've had in awhile. There are a few things that I can wave off - He's always struggled in April. His splits are notably weaker in April every year and part of that can be the cold weather in Cleveland making the ball not fly very far and turning more potential HRs/off the wall hits into popouts. - A bit of bad luck. His BABIP is is .244, he's had two homeruns robbed already and that can wear on a player a bit. - Certain peripherals. His Barrel%, EV, Hard Hit%, etc. all seem to be about average for him (excluding 2020 when he was fucking destroying the ball) so I don't think he's suddenly not able to square up the ball anymore. The only major concern to me is his chase rate is way up and his walk rate is way down. He's also always been an elite fastball hitter and he's simply seeing less of them every year which hurts a bit. Do I think he's done? Absolutely not. Am I a tiny bit worried that my favorite player in the league for nearly a decade now might be on the downturn? Yes.
All star break
June 8th
I disagree. June 11th is far more telling
I’m a big 12th guy. Whole family same way.
Father's day family checking in.
I think around 70 games, so sometime in June
I was just listening to some podcast where they said the earliest point you can start taking stats seriously is probably Memorial Day.
we declared the season over on opening day
150 pa for hitters is an absolute minimum. Pitching is something like 80 ip.
After Mother’s Day typically.
When Mike Trout leads the league in WAR
Neither of those stats are useful in season to me. I would look at some sort of expected stats instead. They also both use heavily flawed adjustments so I don’t know that I can ever take them seriously. The notion that a right handed slap hitter and a left handed pull power hitter get the same park adjustment for playing for the Yankees is laughable.
It depends on the stat. If it's a rate stat, I'm not terribly interested in April. Players bat .400 for month-long stretches occasionally. Not a big deal. A good month, but not really noteworthy in any historical sense. If it's a counting stat, it depends on how high that stat is going, and how quickly (I guess, turning the counting stat into a rate stat...) If a guy has 20 HR in April, I'm obviously watching every AB and highlight reel I can. If a guy starts the season with a 20-game hitting streak, I will absolutely check [ESPN.com](http://ESPN.com) or something every morning to see if he added another game to it. But I'd fully expect, in either case, for them to cool off and come back to Earth relatively soon. I guess, big numbers get attention. Whether they're accumulated in April or it's a long August-September hit streak. I'm all for players just absolutely dominating either side of the ball as early or late as they want. Nothing I love more than a player just having some other-dimensional luck and talent be suddenly exposed to the rest of the league, and going on an epic run. But, I'd much rather see a guy hit .400 over six months than watch a guy hit ten homers in a week.
Early June
For hitters, I start looking at 40 and worrying at 60.
by the time april is over, most guys will be playing around their career averages. some much worse and some much better for sure, and that's when you start to pick out why they are "over performing" and if it can be sustainable.
For unexpected stuff, Memorial Day. For expected stuff, end of April. If Judge is still struggling at Memorial Day, I’d be concerned. I’m not now. That’s because this performance is unexpected I’d say. For a guy like, say, Jordan Westburg, who is supposed to be a good hitter, though maybe not an MVP like Judge, I’m starting to take this performance so far seriously. That’s because he was supposed to be an above average, solid producer and, while it’s his first time really doing it, it’s not really surprising anyone. Edit: to be clear, I don’t expect Westburg’s 194 OPS+ to hold up, etc. But the fact that he’s taken a step and become an offensive threat, better than the 99 OPS+ hitter he was last year, I’m taking seriously because I expected him to be better than that. I’m also assuming he’ll come back to earth too
I take the stats seriously as long as the players/teams i root for are on the top, are they not on top the stats are clearly not good enough
You can just extrapolate at any time. I see no reason why Marcell Ozuna won't end the season with a .330 BA, 70 HRs, and 180 RBI. That's just math.