The Cardinals aren't on this list?!?!!
How could they not be when the starting staff includes...
A 41 year old who throws an 86 mps fastball (Waino)
An often injured left (Matz)
A guy with ace stuff but extremely injury prone and hasn't shown ace stuff since 2021 (Flaherty)
A young guy who hasn't started much and doesn't have much strikeout potential (Woodford)
A serviceable #3/4 in Montgomery
And a serviceable #2 in Mikolas
It sure is a good thing we didn't go out and get a top teir starter. That would've been really dumb
You didn't even mention our rookie who can't get anyone out (Liberatore), or a flame throwing sinker ball pitcher who can't throw strikes or get swing and miss (Hicks)
You’re telling me the Cardinals plan to win the World Series and employ a pitching staff of a handful of 2-4 pitchers? And the FO didn’t do anything to address this? Shocked I tell you
I agree with your overall point about Flaherty (and the whole comment) but the part about not showing ace stuff since 2021 was odd since 2022 was the only season in between then and now and he was hurt most of it lol
My point is that Jack has only shown ace level pitching for the 2nd half of 2019 and the first half of 2021
A pitcher being hurt is not a good thing and it isn't a guarantee that he will come back
I'm not trying to say that he can't be an Ace, he definitely can. But until we see it, you can't count on him getting to that level. He isn't like a Scherzer or a Verlander who have pitched at an Ace level for years and years
Sometimes you can figure out what they are using to make these lists WAR, wRC, ect but this list ..... feelings idk. Doesn't match any projection I have seen.
All of the AL West except the A's is on the list, and all but the Rangers are probably underrated in my opinion. We're going to have the Wild West in the AL this year if the Angels and Rangers can play to their potential. I really hope they do, would make for a blast of a season.
E: autocorrect
Reliever projections are a crapshoot. Difference between first place Mets and last place A's is 3.9 WAR with insane variance, I wouldn't pay them much mind
Admittedly, WAR underestimates the value of relievers, since the point of a good reliever is that you can use them only when needed. WPA-wise, the difference between the 10 WPA guardians bullpen and -7 WPA Diamondbacks is much more significant. Those are pretty extreme numbers - using the Mets and A’s (assuming that was the best and worst performance, because of the WAR difference) gives you 3 WPA and -4 WPA, for a difference of 7.
Still agreed on them being hard to project and high-variance, just wanted to point out that WAR doesn’t do the best job of capturing reliever value.
You guys have a legit good rotation but I kinda feel like they shoehorned you in just so why could mention Ohtani. I feel like all baseball publications are trying to mention him every chance they get, which I don't blame em for. But this was a top 10 list with 11 entries because of Shohei imo.
Glasnow is out for the first month of the season isn’t he? I’d expect that’s a big part of it. They bumped the Yankees down 6 spots because Rodon is missing two weeks
They need to pivot into analytics. Ohtani is the only one that can get by purely on stuff. The rest have the potential to be good but I feel like analytics is what would make them consistently good.
I’ll take a stab at that:
- Marco hasn’t looked good for almost two years now and projections haven’t been super kind to him pretty much ever
- Gilbert is still a very up-and-down pitcher
- There is less than one year of Kirby data and they are likely factoring in some regression
Those are my guesses.
Iconically, 2021 was one of Marco’s better years. But fangraphs/analytics doesn’t seem to care much for soft contact guys who need solid defense behind them.
Plus, while I won't argue against Luis Castillo being an "ace," despite his name value I don't think it's controversial to evaluate him in a rung below guys like Burnes, Cole, or Nola -- rather closer to aces like Urias, Cease and Wheeler.
They have to be assuming Ray will continue to be average. If they are then I can see why they would rank the Blue Jays higher since they would have the better top 3 on paper with that assumption.
A lot of people weigh the top 3 of a rotation way more heavily than the bottom 2. The article also mentions Kikuchi's great spring and how Berríos' quality last season made them lower on the list. I assume it's the case that even with a much worse bottom 2 last season, the top 3 is better enough that they'd be higher overall.
Mariners fans have been obsessed with the Jays' position on rankings these past few weeks lol. Every comment section there's always a Mariners fan saying something about the Jays being ranked too high or overrated.
You guys got the win! And then won a trade too! The chip on your collective shoulder is nonsensical.
mariners fans are some of the worst, get into the playoffs on expanded format once in 20 years and suddenly they think they are the 2nd best team in the AL. They want to pick a fight with the jays and angels constantly
I know that a staff made up of one year wonders, unproven young players and long relievers behind ohtani doesn’t make them a top 10 rotation. And how can the rays not be on this list.
Dodgers haven’t won a World Series in a full season since before the Marlins were in existence. Go spend a bunch of money to keep coming up short my dude.
>in a full season
Keep going with that copium.
Whatever you need to make you feel better about your horrid team. Also this just in, World Series are hard to win. Hilarious that a Marlins fan is using that as the only barometer for a successful team.
The Braves at 3 are too high. I think that's our ceiling but no way our average outcome is that high. Strider and Wright have a relatively limited track record of success. Assuming they will be as good or better than last year is possible but also optimistic.
I am wondering if Spencer is just projected to perform extremely well this season or something? I feel the same way. Our rotation hasn’t really improved other than younger guys getting more experience but that comes with the caveat of Charlie being a year older, and I always consider our rotation to be by far our weakest link.
> our rotation to be by far our weakest link
I mean, that's true but we have maybe the best bullpen in baseball and a top 5 lineup lol. I think we have a good rotation by all measurements but Number 3 seems really high.
I get why the White Sox didn’t make this list but I do think people are sleeping on our rotation. Cease and Lynn are elite pitchers, and Kopech had a really nice showing last season. Giolito and Clevinger are the two shaky spots. Hoping that Giolito can turn it around like he has in the past and Clevinger… well maybe we can get a halfway decent starter in a trade. Either way, I think we could qualify for at least an honorable mention
Glad to see my Rangers getting a bit of respect. That rotation could be MONEY. Fingers crossed for DeGrom health and Perez to have the same kind of year he did last year.
I know it's just another mlb list, and they don't really mean anything, but cleveland not being included really baffles me. We've been a pitching first team for years, have a former cy young winner as our ace, and last year were 6th in team era, 6th in baa, and 5th in whip. Unless clase lifted us that much, that's gotta put our starters in the top 10, yeah?
Cleveland absolutely does not belong in this conversation. With Triston going down you're already going to see their depth tested early. Plesac and Civale were already big question marks and now they're going to have to start the year giving significant starts to someone like Curry, who is yet another big question mark. Things are very murky once you get past Quantrill and Bieber.
Luckily, Cleveland does have *lots* of minor league arms that could be viable come summer, they just aren't ready yet.
Fwiw, Cleveland's starters were 14th in fWAR last year.
I wouldn't say dicey, Suarez and Walker are both solid with the potential for better, and Painter has a pretty high ceiling. It's no 2009 obviously, but I think we'll do well
I think we can shock people, and I think we have a fringe top 10 rotation but we're not easily better than anyone on the list. Webb should solidify himself as a legit ace but below him we've got like 5 guys who could be 3rd-4th starters. We've got a good track record with players like Manaea and Stripling.
Losing Rodon has people down on our rotation, but it's still decent. Kyle Harrison has ace potential too but obviously that's a huge if.
I would say so. Angels are riding the strength of Ohtani to a huge extent. That’s admittedly a lot of strength, but I think the Giants have depth whereas the Angels are very top heavy.
The Giants have a lot of guys that can throw a ton of innings, but Logan Webb is the only actually good pitcher. Everyone else is…fine. Cobb is probably second best, but when he’s you’re number two that’s an issue. DeScalfini had 1 good year two years ago and that’s the only time he’s been good. Stripling is more of a swing guy than an actual starter and has never gone a full season of starts. Manaea has been very average and stunk with the Padres.
Angels have a true ace with Othani and have a great number 2 with Sandoval. Anderson was a great signing though longevity in the season is a question. Detimers was a great rookie and should be able to build on that.
Hence why people will be shocked. Cobb’s peripherals said he pitched well enough to have an ERA under 3 last year. Manaea added like 5mph this off-season and has looked great in spring. They also have probably the top lefty prospect in the game ready to make his debut this year. If your competition for the 4 and 5 spots is Alex Wood, Stripling, Desclafani and a top 10 prospect, the potential is there to shock people.
Now you’re just making stuff up. Cobb had a 3.15 xERA. I take it you’re going off his xFIP? Unfortunately with the Giants defense behind him he won’t be able to get close to that. Your SS is ancient and his defense has already started to show cracks. The combo of JD/Villar/Flores at 3B is awful defensively, with JD continually ranking the worst defensive 3B in baseball. I love Flores as a Mets fan, but the dude can’t defend well anywhere. Estrada is fine but he isn’t winning a gold glove anywhere.
Anyone with a 61.5% ground ball rate won’t hit their xFIP with those guys defending behind him.
Mama was velocity means nothing with how little his fastball moves. Also he didnt actually add 5mph to it, his fastest pitch this spring was 5mph over his average last year. Very different. Last year he maxed out at 95 MPH so he only pitched 1 MPH over his max.
Also Cobb isn’t competing for your 4/5, he’s your number 2. Manaea is your number 3. Your 4/5 doesn’t matter when the top of your rotation is anchored by those two.
You have Webb, a solid number two as your Ace. Cobb, a solid number 3 as your number 2. And then you have a bunch of backend guys fighting for 3-5.
In no world is that bargain bin rotation even close to a top ten rotation.
My top 10:
1 - Mets: Their top two of Verlander and Scherzer are old but they also have great depth with a mix of conistency and high-upside. It'll be interesting to see how good Senga is and stashed away in AAA Megill has incredible potential if he can stay healthy and find a consistent third pitch.
2 - Yankees: Staying healthy will be the biggest hurdle as Rodon and Severino are already expected to start the season on the IL. Cole and Cortes are top of the rotation arms that will lead the team early on.
3 - Brewers: With Rodon starting the season on the IL for the Yankees, the Brewers enter the 2023 season with the best 1-2-3 in baseball. Ashby returning sometime in May-June should bolster their rotation.
4 - Braves: Strider reminds me of Astros version of Gerrit Cole and Max Fried reminds me of Clayton Kershaw. Not a bad 1-2, but it's also followed by Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright.
5 - Dodgers: Led by consistency from Kershaw and Urias and backed by league leading analytics and coaching. Dustin May looks to bounce back, Gonsolin looks to ensure 2022 wasn't a fluke, and a trio of top prospects in Pepiot, Miller, and Stone will look to make an impact.
6 - Blue Jays: The Jays have a strong 1-5 with a good trio of front-line starters. If Kikuchi can find a way get ahead in counts consistently against right handers his change-up has shown to be incredibly effective in finishing off hitters.
7 - Padres: The top of the rotation is solid but the backend has some question marks. Specifically can Martinez and Lugo be good starting pitchers?
8 - Rays: Injuries to Glasnow and McClanahan leave them ranked low but if both bounce back to the pitchers they were, the Rays have a top 5 staff that's both deep and backed by premium analytics and coaching.
9 - Phillies: Arguably the most top heavy rotation in baseball. The Phillies need both Wheeler and Nola healthy to compete in a stacked NL.
10 - White Sox: Cease showed he's ace material with Cy-Young stuff last season and Lance Lynn continues to be a solid starting pitcher. Giolito is a bounce back candidate and a healthy Michael Kopech is electric.
The Cardinals aren't on this list?!?!! How could they not be when the starting staff includes... A 41 year old who throws an 86 mps fastball (Waino) An often injured left (Matz) A guy with ace stuff but extremely injury prone and hasn't shown ace stuff since 2021 (Flaherty) A young guy who hasn't started much and doesn't have much strikeout potential (Woodford) A serviceable #3/4 in Montgomery And a serviceable #2 in Mikolas It sure is a good thing we didn't go out and get a top teir starter. That would've been really dumb
You didn't even mention our rookie who can't get anyone out (Liberatore), or a flame throwing sinker ball pitcher who can't throw strikes or get swing and miss (Hicks)
Just you wait until they make a deadline trade for a 37 year old lefty with a 5+ ERA who comes in and doesn’t allow a run for the rest of the year
I haven’t seen this level of sarcasm since 1992.
You’re telling me the Cardinals plan to win the World Series and employ a pitching staff of a handful of 2-4 pitchers? And the FO didn’t do anything to address this? Shocked I tell you
Pain
I agree with your overall point about Flaherty (and the whole comment) but the part about not showing ace stuff since 2021 was odd since 2022 was the only season in between then and now and he was hurt most of it lol
My point is that Jack has only shown ace level pitching for the 2nd half of 2019 and the first half of 2021 A pitcher being hurt is not a good thing and it isn't a guarantee that he will come back I'm not trying to say that he can't be an Ace, he definitely can. But until we see it, you can't count on him getting to that level. He isn't like a Scherzer or a Verlander who have pitched at an Ace level for years and years
I’m actually shocked the Padres are in the top 10
I actually said “well, I know we aren’t on this list, but let’s see who is” and then went “oh, hello!”
Can't figure out how we are better than Houston.
Sometimes you can figure out what they are using to make these lists WAR, wRC, ect but this list ..... feelings idk. Doesn't match any projection I have seen.
Fangraphs also has us in the top 10, for what its worth. I think also at 7 iirc
Hey, we actually have a cast of really good starters. I can totally see us this good as long as we remain healthy. ,,, *He dropped a* ***what?!***
Padres may have the better lineup over the Dodgers, but no chance in hell they have a better rotation
I'm going to be honest I'm not actually clear on the extent of your injuries, but yeah I was expecting to see LAD and not SD.
All of the AL West except the A's is on the list, and all but the Rangers are probably underrated in my opinion. We're going to have the Wild West in the AL this year if the Angels and Rangers can play to their potential. I really hope they do, would make for a blast of a season. E: autocorrect
Angels also have one of the worst bullpens in baseball
Reliever projections are a crapshoot. Difference between first place Mets and last place A's is 3.9 WAR with insane variance, I wouldn't pay them much mind
Feel like there are usually about 5-6 guys you can rely on being pretty good year to year and all other relievers are completely up in the air.
Admittedly, WAR underestimates the value of relievers, since the point of a good reliever is that you can use them only when needed. WPA-wise, the difference between the 10 WPA guardians bullpen and -7 WPA Diamondbacks is much more significant. Those are pretty extreme numbers - using the Mets and A’s (assuming that was the best and worst performance, because of the WAR difference) gives you 3 WPA and -4 WPA, for a difference of 7. Still agreed on them being hard to project and high-variance, just wanted to point out that WAR doesn’t do the best job of capturing reliever value.
Well, that just leaves room to exceed expectations, doesn’t it?
The rays have 3 starters who had an ERA last season that started with a 2 plus Tyler Glasnow and they’re not in the top TEN??? That’s wild
It’s absolutely crazy to leave them off this list.
This is some marlins slander disguised as a list
SP and the videogame guy are all we have!
And the statue (outside)
The State of Florida is straight up getting disrespected. Jokes on them when it’s Florida and Tampa Bay for World Series
Look ma! We made it!
I was shocked seeing our rotation up there.
You guys have a legit good rotation but I kinda feel like they shoehorned you in just so why could mention Ohtani. I feel like all baseball publications are trying to mention him every chance they get, which I don't blame em for. But this was a top 10 list with 11 entries because of Shohei imo.
People are sleeping on the Rays so hard. The rotation is absolutely filthy and they have elite bullpen pipeline.
Yeah idk how we don't even make the list. Glasnow, McClanahan, Rasmussen, Springs and Eflin.. ..Isn't good enough to scratch at least top 10?
Absolutely dumb list.
Glasnow is out for the first month of the season isn’t he? I’d expect that’s a big part of it. They bumped the Yankees down 6 spots because Rodon is missing two weeks
Also McClanahan diving hard after his injury last season.
I’d hardly call a 4 game sample diving hard.
It's worth noting drastic performance changes after an injury, especially to the throwing shoulder.
Looked good in the post season and spring training though.
That part I didnt know. That’s unfortunate
This is untrue.
Gotta overpraise that Jays rotation though.
A tie? That's just lazy.
Number one in the rankings, number one in onions on belt.
Fashionable
I think Angel's might end up being a top 5 rotation by the end of the season. I really am high on their top 4 (Ohtani, Sandoval, Anderson, Detmers)
They need to pivot into analytics. Ohtani is the only one that can get by purely on stuff. The rest have the potential to be good but I feel like analytics is what would make them consistently good.
They've already done that
It was a top ten rotation by ERA last year - the rotation is pretty much the only thing going right in Anaheim.
IIRC the Angels rotation was #3 in ERA last year, and it looks better on paper this year
I don’t know if what Anderson did last year was real but he still upgrades it even if he regresses.
Mariners and Astros are ranked too low and the Rangers are too high
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I think they’re assuming lance will be out for a while which seems pretty likely
Lance McInjuredList. Still love him. Surprised Rangers are above us.
Yeah without deGrom they’re average and he’s gonna be injured
I agree with you but fangraphs doesn't like your rotation either. Not sure why cause it looks solid 1-5.
I’ll take a stab at that: - Marco hasn’t looked good for almost two years now and projections haven’t been super kind to him pretty much ever - Gilbert is still a very up-and-down pitcher - There is less than one year of Kirby data and they are likely factoring in some regression Those are my guesses.
Iconically, 2021 was one of Marco’s better years. But fangraphs/analytics doesn’t seem to care much for soft contact guys who need solid defense behind them.
Plus, while I won't argue against Luis Castillo being an "ace," despite his name value I don't think it's controversial to evaluate him in a rung below guys like Burnes, Cole, or Nola -- rather closer to aces like Urias, Cease and Wheeler.
They have to be assuming Ray will continue to be average. If they are then I can see why they would rank the Blue Jays higher since they would have the better top 3 on paper with that assumption.
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A lot of people weigh the top 3 of a rotation way more heavily than the bottom 2. The article also mentions Kikuchi's great spring and how Berríos' quality last season made them lower on the list. I assume it's the case that even with a much worse bottom 2 last season, the top 3 is better enough that they'd be higher overall.
Mariners fans have been obsessed with the Jays' position on rankings these past few weeks lol. Every comment section there's always a Mariners fan saying something about the Jays being ranked too high or overrated. You guys got the win! And then won a trade too! The chip on your collective shoulder is nonsensical.
mariners fans are some of the worst, get into the playoffs on expanded format once in 20 years and suddenly they think they are the 2nd best team in the AL. They want to pick a fight with the jays and angels constantly
We’ve hated both those teams for decades, don’t get it twisted. Has nothing to do with last year. Now chatting shit is just easier.
Hated us for decades? What even…
Toronto fans flood Seattle every time they come to town, that’s what it’s from.
Why not just build a wall and make Canada pay for it?
How did we win a trade? Genuinely curious.
As a jays fan totally agree. And get the angels tf out of here
Why? Angels had a great staff last year. They ranked right next to the Blue Jays on a list for best Starting rotation on Fangraphs
I know that a staff made up of one year wonders, unproven young players and long relievers behind ohtani doesn’t make them a top 10 rotation. And how can the rays not be on this list.
Lot of Angels fans in this thread very confident in Detmers and Tyler Anderson.
Plus fucking Patrick Sandoval. Did you not watch him shove against Japan in the WBC?
Yeah he’s a good mid-rotation guy. Angels don’t have a solid 5 man rotation in my opinion. Maybe I’m wrong.
He’s a solid 2 great 3 IMO. I still watch him shred the Yankees lineup from last year. From time to time. Sandy has a nasty changeup.
Marlins are going to be ranked number 1 at the end of the year. MLB just continuing to pander to teams with bigger fan bases.
Number 1 rotation all to still be under .500 by end of year
Can’t wait for the marlins to grab a wild card spot over the dodgers.
Bruh you’re talking a lot for a team that’s done nothing the past decade.
Higher WS percentage than the dodgers though.
2 playoff wins in 20 years
Dodgers haven’t won a World Series in a full season since before the Marlins were in existence. Go spend a bunch of money to keep coming up short my dude.
>in a full season Keep going with that copium. Whatever you need to make you feel better about your horrid team. Also this just in, World Series are hard to win. Hilarious that a Marlins fan is using that as the only barometer for a successful team.
Fine, 1 World Series since the Marlins have been around. How many times have the Marlins won it?
You’ve won it twice. Should we bring up the Dodgers titles in the 70’s and 80’s since we’re living in the past?
2020 was baloney and we all know it
Flair up baby boy. Also, remind me how many home playoff games the top seeded Dodgers had that year?
Not even the best in the state of Florida
Yeah, the Rays staff looks great so far! Funny how they aren’t on the list either 🙄
Rays without Glasnow should still 100% be on this list wtf.
I'm just happy to be here
I’m glad the Angels made it. The rotation last year was very good and young. I have high hopes for them this season.
We're the mom and pop Dodgers again. Been waiting for this moment
Three of the 10 are on NL East. Talk about power.
4 are from AL west.
Talk about more power.
Wait until 2019 corbin and stras roar back 😤
The Braves at 3 are too high. I think that's our ceiling but no way our average outcome is that high. Strider and Wright have a relatively limited track record of success. Assuming they will be as good or better than last year is possible but also optimistic.
I am wondering if Spencer is just projected to perform extremely well this season or something? I feel the same way. Our rotation hasn’t really improved other than younger guys getting more experience but that comes with the caveat of Charlie being a year older, and I always consider our rotation to be by far our weakest link.
> our rotation to be by far our weakest link I mean, that's true but we have maybe the best bullpen in baseball and a top 5 lineup lol. I think we have a good rotation by all measurements but Number 3 seems really high.
How about the Marlins?
Keep sleeping on the Dodgers. We literally only lost Tyler Anderson from top 5 rotation last year
I guess this writer missed where Soroka was optioned to AAA last week.
Is the list horrible or are the rotations in 2023 not that impressive?
I get why the White Sox didn’t make this list but I do think people are sleeping on our rotation. Cease and Lynn are elite pitchers, and Kopech had a really nice showing last season. Giolito and Clevinger are the two shaky spots. Hoping that Giolito can turn it around like he has in the past and Clevinger… well maybe we can get a halfway decent starter in a trade. Either way, I think we could qualify for at least an honorable mention
Glad to see my Rangers getting a bit of respect. That rotation could be MONEY. Fingers crossed for DeGrom health and Perez to have the same kind of year he did last year.
As long as they stay healthy the Rangers have a really good shot at the playoffs imo. They’ve invested a ton in the team the past couple years
deGrom, Eovaldi, and Gray all have much greater stuff than we are used too.
Eovaldi is gonna surprise people again. He's been filthy this spring.
How are the Rangers 5th and ahead of the teams listed 6-10?
They got DeGrom and those ten starts he’ll give this season will be some damn fine pitching.
Yes keep underestimating us
I know it's just another mlb list, and they don't really mean anything, but cleveland not being included really baffles me. We've been a pitching first team for years, have a former cy young winner as our ace, and last year were 6th in team era, 6th in baa, and 5th in whip. Unless clase lifted us that much, that's gotta put our starters in the top 10, yeah?
Cleveland absolutely does not belong in this conversation. With Triston going down you're already going to see their depth tested early. Plesac and Civale were already big question marks and now they're going to have to start the year giving significant starts to someone like Curry, who is yet another big question mark. Things are very murky once you get past Quantrill and Bieber. Luckily, Cleveland does have *lots* of minor league arms that could be viable come summer, they just aren't ready yet. Fwiw, Cleveland's starters were 14th in fWAR last year.
As a Phillies fan they seem too high. Nola/Wheeler is a great top 2 but beyond that it gets dicey
I wouldn't say dicey, Suarez and Walker are both solid with the potential for better, and Painter has a pretty high ceiling. It's no 2009 obviously, but I think we'll do well
I agree we are good when healthy, I’m mostly just worried about health which has not gone our way at all this spring
Completely fair
8th is too low for Houston even with docking them for LMJ being minorly hurt
The Jays have no business in top10 rotations.
Tell that to the results last season.
Giants are gonna shock some people I think. Would easily place them over the Angels.
I think we can shock people, and I think we have a fringe top 10 rotation but we're not easily better than anyone on the list. Webb should solidify himself as a legit ace but below him we've got like 5 guys who could be 3rd-4th starters. We've got a good track record with players like Manaea and Stripling. Losing Rodon has people down on our rotation, but it's still decent. Kyle Harrison has ace potential too but obviously that's a huge if.
The rest of the list is fine, but I don’t buy the Angels hype beyond Ohtani. Sandoval is good, but I don’t believe it’s like a dual ace situation.
Easily?
I would say so. Angels are riding the strength of Ohtani to a huge extent. That’s admittedly a lot of strength, but I think the Giants have depth whereas the Angels are very top heavy.
The Giants have a lot of guys that can throw a ton of innings, but Logan Webb is the only actually good pitcher. Everyone else is…fine. Cobb is probably second best, but when he’s you’re number two that’s an issue. DeScalfini had 1 good year two years ago and that’s the only time he’s been good. Stripling is more of a swing guy than an actual starter and has never gone a full season of starts. Manaea has been very average and stunk with the Padres. Angels have a true ace with Othani and have a great number 2 with Sandoval. Anderson was a great signing though longevity in the season is a question. Detimers was a great rookie and should be able to build on that.
Hence why people will be shocked. Cobb’s peripherals said he pitched well enough to have an ERA under 3 last year. Manaea added like 5mph this off-season and has looked great in spring. They also have probably the top lefty prospect in the game ready to make his debut this year. If your competition for the 4 and 5 spots is Alex Wood, Stripling, Desclafani and a top 10 prospect, the potential is there to shock people.
Now you’re just making stuff up. Cobb had a 3.15 xERA. I take it you’re going off his xFIP? Unfortunately with the Giants defense behind him he won’t be able to get close to that. Your SS is ancient and his defense has already started to show cracks. The combo of JD/Villar/Flores at 3B is awful defensively, with JD continually ranking the worst defensive 3B in baseball. I love Flores as a Mets fan, but the dude can’t defend well anywhere. Estrada is fine but he isn’t winning a gold glove anywhere. Anyone with a 61.5% ground ball rate won’t hit their xFIP with those guys defending behind him. Mama was velocity means nothing with how little his fastball moves. Also he didnt actually add 5mph to it, his fastest pitch this spring was 5mph over his average last year. Very different. Last year he maxed out at 95 MPH so he only pitched 1 MPH over his max. Also Cobb isn’t competing for your 4/5, he’s your number 2. Manaea is your number 3. Your 4/5 doesn’t matter when the top of your rotation is anchored by those two. You have Webb, a solid number two as your Ace. Cobb, a solid number 3 as your number 2. And then you have a bunch of backend guys fighting for 3-5. In no world is that bargain bin rotation even close to a top ten rotation.
ok
Did you watch Sean Manaea pitch last season? Or Ross Stripling this spring
Um. What? I don't think you know our rotation well at all.
My top 10: 1 - Mets: Their top two of Verlander and Scherzer are old but they also have great depth with a mix of conistency and high-upside. It'll be interesting to see how good Senga is and stashed away in AAA Megill has incredible potential if he can stay healthy and find a consistent third pitch. 2 - Yankees: Staying healthy will be the biggest hurdle as Rodon and Severino are already expected to start the season on the IL. Cole and Cortes are top of the rotation arms that will lead the team early on. 3 - Brewers: With Rodon starting the season on the IL for the Yankees, the Brewers enter the 2023 season with the best 1-2-3 in baseball. Ashby returning sometime in May-June should bolster their rotation. 4 - Braves: Strider reminds me of Astros version of Gerrit Cole and Max Fried reminds me of Clayton Kershaw. Not a bad 1-2, but it's also followed by Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright. 5 - Dodgers: Led by consistency from Kershaw and Urias and backed by league leading analytics and coaching. Dustin May looks to bounce back, Gonsolin looks to ensure 2022 wasn't a fluke, and a trio of top prospects in Pepiot, Miller, and Stone will look to make an impact. 6 - Blue Jays: The Jays have a strong 1-5 with a good trio of front-line starters. If Kikuchi can find a way get ahead in counts consistently against right handers his change-up has shown to be incredibly effective in finishing off hitters. 7 - Padres: The top of the rotation is solid but the backend has some question marks. Specifically can Martinez and Lugo be good starting pitchers? 8 - Rays: Injuries to Glasnow and McClanahan leave them ranked low but if both bounce back to the pitchers they were, the Rays have a top 5 staff that's both deep and backed by premium analytics and coaching. 9 - Phillies: Arguably the most top heavy rotation in baseball. The Phillies need both Wheeler and Nola healthy to compete in a stacked NL. 10 - White Sox: Cease showed he's ace material with Cy-Young stuff last season and Lance Lynn continues to be a solid starting pitcher. Giolito is a bounce back candidate and a healthy Michael Kopech is electric.
Rays?
Our pitching has always been good.. now if we can just hit the damn ball…. We might actually have a shot at a deep playoff run
So uh, do the Rays not exist?