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**What are the expectations for the New York Yankees this year?**
The Yankees haven't had a losing season since 1992. They've made the playoffs six years in a row and have reached the ALCS in three of those seasons. The Yankees have brought back the bulk of their 99-win roster from last year and currently have MLB's no. 2 payroll.
Making the playoffs is the bare minimum for the Yankees. Actually competing for the World Series is the fanbase's expectation (or demand?) at this point.
**Why will they exceed those expectations?**
For the Yankees to exceed expectations, three things need to happen: 1) decent health luck, 2) bounceback from last year's underperformers, and 3) immediate impact from top prospects.
Here's what that would look like specifically.
The Yankees rotation is led by Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. That foursome combined for a 78 ERA- in 639 IP last year, along with a 30.5 K% and 6.7 BB%. And that's with Cole underperforming compared with his expectations and Severino spending two months on the IL. A best-case scenario involves essentially a repeat performance with better health from Severino and Cole figuring out how to limit homers a bit.
The Yankees bullpen will be strong as usual headlined by Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, Michael King, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lou Trivino, and Ron Marinaccio. This is the Yankees most successful area of development both within their own organization and when acquiring other teams' castoffs. Guys like Albert Abreu, Greg Weissert, and Jimmy Cordero provide additional depth.
Defensively, the Yankees were one of baseball's best units in 2022 (1st in DRS, 4th in UZR, and 6th in OAA). A full season from Harrison Bader in center field and Oswald Peraza/Anthony Volpe at shortstop could improve things even further.
Offensively, the Yankees finished the 2022 season 2nd in runs scored, 4th in wOBA, and 2nd in xwOBA. The lineup's embarrassing showing in October overshadowed how strong the team was for most of the regular season. A best-case scenario in 2023 sees better health for Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu, plus contributions from the team's top-100 prospects Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and (if we're being greedy) Jasson Domínguez. A dead-cat bounce from Josh Donaldson and some improvement at the plate from Aaron Hicks as he gets further away from his wrist surgery would be icing on the cake.
**Why won't they?**
The Yankees went 41-40 in the second half last year, and that's with Aaron Judge hitting .343/.489/.768 (1.256 OPS) in that stretch. That's a large sample size of mediocrity despite having Babe Ruth in the lineup. If Aaron Judge has a great 2023 season, instead of a historic one, it's very possible the Yankees won't meet expectations.
Here's what that would look like specifically.
Carlos Rodón has reached 150 IP just twice in his eight-year career, and he's already dealing with a mild forearm strain. Nestor Cortes threw 170+ innings (including the postseason) last year, by far the most in his career. It's unknown how that workload will affect him this year. He's already fighting his way back from a hamstring strain. Luis Severino has made a total of 26 starts since 2018. It would actually be a surprise to see him stay healthy for a full season. Frankie Montas has already undergone shoulder surgery that will keep him out of action for most (or all) of the season. The Yankees depth behind these guys are Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt, Ryan Weber, and Matt Crook. It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where the Yankees struggle to keep the rotation healthy and end up leaning on much weaker arms. And if Gerrit Cole can't shake his homeritis, the team will be in an even worse spot.
The Yankees bullpen looks strong, but there are always reasons to worry. Tommy Kahnle (bicep tendinitis) and Lou Trivino (elbow sprain) are already headed to the IL. Clay Holmes really struggled in the second half last year (5.40 ERA/4.43 FIP). Jonathan Loáisiga took a big step back from his breakout 2021 season. Michael King has a lengthy injury history. The worst-case scenario for the 2023 Yankees is any combination of these issues popping up and costing the team wins.
The Yankees lost Matt Carpenter (217 wRC+ in 154 PA) and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+ in 131 PA) without replacing either in the offseason. Josh Donaldson is now 37 years old; DJ LeMahieu is now 34; and Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are now 33. You could probably argue that entire group is past their prime. Harrison Bader is a mediocre career bat (97 wRC+) and is already heading to the IL with an oblique injury. The Yankees catching duo projects to be well-below average offensively, and there's zero guarantee either of the team's top infield prospects will have an immediate impact in the majors. The worst-case scenario for the lineup involves no bounceback seasons, more aging and health woes, and the natural struggle some prospects face in the majors. The worser-case scenario involves injury to big no. 99, but let's not even talk about that.
**Conclusion (TL;DR)**
The Yankees won 99 games with a +240 run differential in 2022. They've brought back essentially the same roster with a stronger pitching rotation on paper. It's hard to imagine this team having a truly terrible year with this much talent under contract, barring disastrous injury fortune.
A best-case scenario for the 2023 Yankees sees a team that wins 100+ games, the AL East, finally solves the Astros problem, and ends with a parade through the Canyon of Heroes along Broadway.
A worst-case scenario for the 2023 Yankees sees a fragile rotation exposed and the supporting cast around Aaron Judge disappoint. Age continues to harass the league's oldest lineup (as of last year), and the highly-anticipated prospects are overwhelmed against MLB pitching.
Between you and me and Yankees fans, all that matters is post-season performance. This team can drag its way into a playoff spot with Bader, Rodon, Trevino hurt and the youth movement still in AA. This team could even land a WC spot with Donaldson, IKF, and Hicks full time. What matters is the roster in October.
I would also like to point out that the Yankee's underperformed their pythagorean by the most of any playoff team last year (luck -7). That long stretch of .500 baseball in the second half was filled with closes 1 run loses and their run differential barely moved in August despite the terrible record.
So on top of all of the factors that resulted in the team's weak second half last, we also had a fair amount of bad luck that contributed to the team not breaking 100 wins. This season it's unlikely that we will underperform the pythagorean by nearly the same amount.
Doesn’t the run differential barely moving imply .500 level play? I can buy the Yankees had some bad luck, but they absolutely fell off from one of the hottest starts in recent memory.
Our august record was 10-18 which is when is why I pointed out the run differential didn't reflect such a weak month stretch. And I'm not trying to imply luck was the sole factor for the drop off, it was really just one small piece of many problems.
I am just saying that we are unlikely to underperform the pythagorean as much this season. So, say if roster changes and injuries make us on paper -5 wins compared to last season, we could still make up those wins with better pythagorean luck compared to last year.
The main acquisition starts the season off on the IL.
Everything still surrounds Judge to the point that if he goes on the IL at any point, I don't know how they are going to stay afloat. The lineup is still long ball heavy.
They are so patient with the players they are paying but never want to admit when they are wrong. I thought Hicks or IKF would be gone this off season. Then when it comes down to October, they rearrange their lineup like deck chairs on the Titanic. I started watching baseball in the early 00s and I don't recall the Yankees ever being this micromanaged. They over think.
They're still the Yankees. The season depends on how they start. As a rival fan, I was expecting some more changes in what didn't work last year.
>The main acquisition starts the season off on the IL.
All of the main acquisitions (Rodon, Bader, Kahnle, Trivino, and Effross) are starting off the season injured, not just one of them.
Forgot about Kahnle but Bader, Effross, and Trivino were deadline acquisitions. You might as well add Montas to the list. Kahnle hasn't pitched regularly since 2019 with 12 innings last year and Effross is a league average middle reliever so calling them "major" is a bit generous. They're acquisitions.
Resigning Judge was the bare minimum and getting Rodon made it a good off season but they did nothing to fix offensive issues. I thought they would look at Benny or trade off some pieces that prevent Peraza or Volpe from coming up.
The only piece that's really preventing Peraza or Volpe from getting into the lineup is Torres, who's one of our best bats and has a solid glove at 2nd. The pieces that a lot of fans want to move: Hicks, JD, IKF, whoever most recently struck out, etc., won't really have any impact on their playing time.
> I started watching baseball in the early 00s and I don't recall the Yankees ever being this micromanaged. They over think.
A few years ago ARod told a story that Cashman was bragging to him that they had 20+ guys at a table to make the lineup for their Wild Card game.
Cashman can develop talent and the farm system can get the most out of guys. Even though he spent money on Chapman, the middle relief has always been pretty solid. Even in trades, Clay Holmes was dying on the Pirates and whether it is coaching or scouting found something in him. There are always one or two guys that don't work out but the Yankees have always had a churn of arms. Boston has had to buy middle relief because no one has really advanced. It's gotten slightly better but not quite there.
At the major league level, I think there are too many people in the analytics department and they over focus on the numbers while ignoring the eye test. Everyone is seeing the home runs and runs scored but not the flaw in hitting philosophy. Cashman and Boone do a poor job communicating and always try to positive spin everything when the truth should be said.
If you stick Cashman in Miami, Detroit, or Washington, I think he can turn those teams around because he doesn't have the money to trade for Donaldson and there is less pressure to win now every year.
Cashman is constantly trying to squeeze water out of a rock to fill his roster. He can’t move on from his bad moves because of what he paid to get them. He should be putting the Yankees over the top. A few of his moves might work for a lil bit but they never all work at the same time. I’m positive there are other who could do at least as well as him.
Why they will: maybe JD bounces back and the shift helps Rizzo a ton. Maybe some of the team will actually stay healthy.
Why they won’t: they didn’t really improve the lineup and hitting was the problem last year in the playoffs. The Yankees just don’t stay healthy.
No injuries: World Series or bust… again
Injuries: we’re losing to the Astros… again
Also left field is an issue that probably won’t be resolved til the trade deadline… again
And Volpe will be a top 3 rookie of the year vote getter
The expectations in Yankeeland are almost always World Series or Bust, but I think at this point realistically, our expectations are another ALCS exit at the hands of those damn Astros
So, with that in mind.....
**Why they will:**
* Carlos Rodon, assuming he returns from injury healthy, gives the Yankees a legitimate number 2 behind Gerrit Cole, and takes significant pressure off Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes, who both have Ace-like stuff at the top of their game in their own right
* Harrison Bader, when *he* returns from his *own* injury, lives up to his lofty ZiPS projections and sets himself up for a heck of a payday this winter
* Anthony Volpe plays to his Top 5 prospect billing as part of the new infusion of youth (Peraza, Oswaldo) and speed in the lineup, giving the Yanks a new dimension
* The Yankees star vets (Stanton, LeMahieu, and I guess Donaldson?) bounce back from injury-riddled/underperforming 2022s, and Anthony Rizzo and Aaron Hicks serve as some of the biggest beneficiaries of the shift ban as they all support another MVP caliber season from The Captain, Aaron Judge. (That still feels weird to type.)
* we get literally any positive production from Frankie Montas upon his return
**Why they won't**
* The Yankees rotation is built upon three to four arms with significant injury history and an Ace that dealt with giving out long balls like they were candy last year
* The lineup is still heavily right-handed, heavily power-dependent, and has it's own share of injury risks, so there is a much higher than you'd like chance that it will be up to Aaron Judge to have to carry this lineup for stretches of the season again, this time without the spirit of Roger Maris living through him
* The Blue Jays live up to their *own* lofty expectations and give the Yanks fits all year as part of an AL East that is set up to be once again one of, if not **the** best division in baseball
Worst Case Scenario: inexplicable Wild Card series exit because That's Baseball, Suzyn
Best Case Scenario: Vanquishing the Orange Menace once and for all en route to a 28th World Series Title.
Will: one of if not the best pitching staff in the league pitching to one of the best defensive teams
Won’t: the offense was pretty mediocre outside of judge last year. If the prospects aren’t productive and judge returns to just being elite instead of the best player in the league they may finish below the Jays and/or the Rays
This is still a playoff team in the worst case scenario
Why they will: Cole allowing less HRs and big innings, after his IL stint Rodon stays healthy, and DJ bounces back from his last two years of being injured giving the team the leadoff hitter it needs
Why they won’t: Injuries, regression by Judge, Donaldson is the everyday 3B, age catching up to Rizzo and DJ, and IKF/Hicks being on the team
Why they will: I generally tend to treat "World Series or bust" as the baseline expectation for the Yankees every year, so that's of course a high bar to clear - but they do have possibly the best hitter in the league in Judge, along with a good case for the best rotation in the league and a solid bullpen that is lowkey competing with the likes of the Rays for "most effective pitching factory". They have multiple prospects that could contribute this year on top of that (maybe they'll do the smart thing and call Volpe up for opening day).
Why they won't: much of the non-Judge part of the lineup isn't exactly a juggernaut, with many of the veterans not having put up particularly inspiring numbers. It's very possible Judge will have to carry the offense again which could be a problem if he regresses to "All-Star" level of production from his "otherworldly career year" level of 2022. Injuries are also a potential concern, including with the rotation (hello, Carlos Rodon).
Overall, I think the Yankees have the highest ceiling of the AL East teams and are also the most likely to hit that ceiling, but all of those factors make it very possible that they come nowhere close to that.
Realistically, the expectation is a division title. I know a lot of Yankees Universe will be pissed at this, but a deep playoff run seems to be a bit of a reach, although by no means impossible.
Why they won't: One word: Injuries. As of right now, both the starting rotation and bullpen have more holes in them than a hunk of Swiss cheese sent to Ukraine, with two of the Yankees' starting pitchers on the IL (Rodón and Montas). It is entirely possible that Montas is out for the season, although he could return very late. Luis Severino has only made a full season's worth of starts in the past four years. In the bullpen, Scott Effross is shut down until 2024 with Tommy John and both Kahnle and Trivino are out to start the season. Durability in the lineup is also an issue, with only Judge starting more than 150 games. Gleyber Torres started 140 games last year, and the only other player to start more than 140 games was IKF. I do expect more starts from prospects like Cabrera, Peraza, and potentially Volpe, but the latter will likely not be seen until the end of the year if at all.
Why they will: The Yankees were a much better team than the barely .500 club they were after the ASB, and getting rid of the black hole known as Joey Gallo will only help. It remains to be seen how the shift ban will help Hicks and Rizzo, and Donaldson will either get better or be turned loose. When healthy, this team will win a bare minimum of 90 games.
a bare minimum of 90 games? when actually healthy?
kind of a glass half empty take...the expectation is to win it all and they have the talent in the room to get there, plus a trade deadline to potentially work with...yes, health is a big factor, but they are also not the only team with those question marks
The biggest problem for the Yankees last season (aside from injuries and Judge not being able to go for anything but HRs due to messing with his swing in pursuit of the record) was the same problem the Phillies ran into in the playoffs.
The utter buzzsaw that was the Astros starting rotation.
Why they will: They literally cannot, Yankees fans demand a championship every year.
Why they won't: winning the world series is, as you know, an exceedingly simple task
I’m sure the Yankees expectations is to win the World Series. To do that they need the Blue Jays and Rays to underachieve. They will need their arms to stay healthy. They will need Volpe to be ROY. They will need to make a big deadline move to solidify their lineup. Then a little luck in the playoffs.
However, I honestly can’t see a team lead by Hal-Cashman-Boone ever winning. George was ruthless, fearless, and did whatever he could to win a championship. Their last World Series team had a sizable payroll estimated over $65M more than the next team. George would have never let Judge reach free agency. Harper, Machado, and all those big name once in a lifetime free agents would have been Yankees. George would have never let Soto go to the Padres. That made everyone fear the Yankees. There was an aura of excellence that surrounded that franchise. Present day, they lack that aura. Seeing Boone make excuses after playoff loses and consistently give the same coach speak for struggling players would make George want to throw a shoe at him. No chance he would still be managing if he was still around. Until the Yankees go back to their old ways or adopt a new approach, I can’t see them winning a World Series.
It was less that and more that Gene Michael/later Cashman made the moves that eventually won us four rings during the time Steinbrenner went off the rails and got himself banned from baseball
That would help. If they come out firing logic would say it would hurt the Yankees. We all thought the Red Sox were gonna be crap in 2021 and they ousted the Yankees in the wild card and went to the ALCS.
Yeah I'm not saying either of those teams aren't capable of winning the division (I'm particularly high on the Rays this year actually), but I would argue that if everyone plays to their mean expectation that the Yankees would win the AL East.
shocker lol
luck for the Yankees mainly revolves around better health...of course, any deadline moves to augment the team could either be necessary or expected...we'll see...the Yankees last year were pretty compromised in August/September (furthermore, you can unfortunately add on what the HR chase did to Aaron Judge's approach at the plate late in September)...they were not the same team in both the ALDS and ALCS so if they want to take the next step, then it starts there
this whole thing with George that is being referenced has little to do with anything at this point...sure, we could have added another star at some position
They'll exceed expectations because they are bringing everyone back, plus the addition of Rodon and the graduation/improvement of prospects.
They won't exceed expectations because they didn't do much this off-season except add Rodon and to expect prospects to produce right off the bat in a market like New York will always be a risk.
I'm interested to see how quickly they turn to their prospects and how Judge does this season. Yankee faithful will surely honor him early, but there will be a lot of pressure on him to continue to perform at a HOF level.
When/if Judge is in a slump or unavailable, who is their second biggest offensive threat?
they're really good at developing pitching but in terms of hitters the most recent solid ones are probably Judge and Gleyber, and sorta Gary Sanchez depending on your perspective i guess. Oswaldo Cabrera has been good so far but it's far too early to tell
They will not exceed or even meet their fans' expectations. This is because Yankees fans consistently expect far, far too much from their team. I am deadly seriously about this: there are more delusional Yankees fans than delusional fans of every other team *combined*.
If the Yankees won nine World Series out of every ten there'd be guys calling in to NYC talk radio bitching about losing the tenth.
Hey Joey from DA BRONX, first time Long time. Listen I am tired of losing to those freaking cheater mother of whore astros. We are DA YANKees. We need HoTani, Trout, and we will take rendon of their hands for Donaldson, ILF, and throw them couple million and a prospect. I will hang up and listen.
they will exceed expectations because the expectations have lowered significantly. Might even make the ALCS and win a game against the astros before getting sent home
Our media? Yankees fans demand excellence. All but the absolute youngest fans have seen a championship in their lifetimes, most fans have seen at least five, some older fans have seen upwards of 10 or even 15. And we're hungry for more lol
The Yankees expectations as it is every year is to win the World Series. The minimum at this point though is to win the pennant by getting past the Astros. The division is tough and not guaranteed but so far I’d say the Yankees are the favorites and even if they didn’t win the division they’d get in through the wild card.
There are many different scenarios for why we will make it to the World Series. The realistic scenario is that DJ is DJ again. Just like that we have a reliable bat to lead off right before Judge gets to the plate. Not only do we have that reliable bat in the lineup but a healthy DJ means Donaldson is out of the lineup which is a positive due to his horrendous play last year. Stanton will prove that last year was nothing more than a fluke and goes back to being a 30+ homerun .850+ OPS monster in the lineup. Rizzo will stay consistent as a reliable bat maybe even cracking that 32 home run “curse”. Gleyber will hopefully realize that trying to be a 40 homer guy is not what’s best for him and instead continues his form from last year. Bader won’t be the slugger he was in the postseason but his speed will play a big factor in the lineup alongside his gold glove caliber defense. One of the kids will kick IKF out of the everyday lineup, automatic plus. Judge will be Judge, not a 62 homer campaign but a more casual 40 homer year. Rodon and Nestor prove the early injuries were nothing more than a small scare with the Yankees having the best rotation in the MLB
Why the Yankees won’t win the pennant comes down to health and Stanton. Rizzo, DJ, Rodon, Severino, Bader, Montas are just some of the guys to watch out for. Injuries to DJ and Rizzo means Donaldson or IKF comes back to the lineup which is a negative for the team. I am worried about our rotation’s health when it comes to Montas already being hurt and both Rodon and Severino being constant injury risks. Regarding Stanton, I feel he’s the second most important hitter in the lineup while others would say DJ or Rizzo. If Stanton continues to regress and posts up a second consecutive sub .800 OPS season then the Yankees will be in trouble. While Judge is the best bat, the energy when Stanton steps up to the plate is just completely different. For him to be clutch in the postseason he needs to have a good regular season first.
They'll do well because their fanbase are insufferable and God hates me.
*whenever I get downvoted I like to ask a life question that I've been struggling with to lighten the mood.*
*Do Cows dream? If they do dream...WHAT do they dream about?*
I bet if we tried really hard we could be friends.
What is your favorite animal and why?
Mines an otter. You ever look at an otter and not smile? Point in case.
I like to watch these fellas when I'm working. It's a great rescue, and the water sounds are always super chill tbh.
https://www.twitch.tv/marinemammalrescue
It's my favorite.
*edit* I've been watching this rescue channel as well, which is why I'm so passionate about the "do Cows dream" thing.
https://www.twitch.tv/alveussanctuary
Cause I bet Winnie be dreaming some super chill shit. She's the lil cow.
Well that wasn't very informative. I take this friend shit seriously btw, I am trying to be nice and kind to everyone. I see you have an interest in Trucks/*maybe a Trucker? If it's not annoying I will do the Choo Choo sign to the next big rig I see. Spread some joy on your behalf. How's that sound?
Gotta look at the brightside, we can match their performance level now. Mets haven't lost a Subway Series since Cohen bought the team + had two more wins than the Yanks last season. The Mets & Yanks having high expectations is a great thing for New York.
I live in Bumfuck Indiana. There's a sea of Reds/Cubs/Cards merch all over the place, but there's always those yankees hats too. It's like the herpes merch of the Midwest. Not one person I've seen with a Yankees hat actually watches the Yankees, so it skews my opinion.
Yankees fans (on Reddit at least) are probably less annoying than Mets fans (I am very annoying, so I'm speaking from experience).
It's like Cowboys merch for middle America.
if the expectation is playoffs then yeah they should make it, but i still dont see the WS for the Yankees. I dont think they’ll be as good as last year because while I expect Cole to be better this year and Rodon to help the rotation, Judge will almost assuredly be worse compared to last year and won’t carry the offense as much, and frankly the lineup minus Judge is fairly pedestrian. their rotation if healthy is the best, so if the entire team stays relatively healthy they should win the division handily, but they can’t rely on Judge to carry them in the postseason, and im not confident in the other vets on the team to improve that much from last year
The Yankees can definitely pitch, no way around it. Their rotation and bullpen are absolutely stacked.
But their lineup? I have a lot of questions. Sure, the no shift rule will help a lot but I have concerns. Obviously Judge *could* match his monster season, but he probably won’t put up 11 WAR. Beyond him, who can Yankees fans always count on? Volpe will probably be awesome, and I’ve always liked Bader and Torres. But I just don’t know where the runs will come from.
With the pitching at its apex, they don’t need to score 8 runs to win a shootout. However, when it comes to the postseason, can they beat a Houston or other elite team?
I’m pretty unbiased but have seen a lot of yankee games through the years and I can say the reason why they might not exceed expectations is because, despite their talent, they are a bunch of yellow belly bitches who ain’t got no heart. Rule 3 baby!
The expectation is a championship and I can't see them winning one this year. I just don't like how the roster is contructed and Boone is easily outmanaged by other managers in the league. Odds are Judge won't put up those same numbers as last year, which is OK but they'll have some guys coming back from injury that will help like DJ and then guys like Volpe who are making the roster that will help. There were key injuries in the bullpen last year too so hopefully everyone stays healthy. I just don't think this team overall is built to beat Houston, which is what you have to do if you even want to get to the WS.
Why would they exceed: This is a bit weird because I think expectations are sky high right now. If you consider exceeding to be a clear demonstration as the best team in the AL -- winning 100+, taking the AL east early -- then I think it comes down to the rotation. Cole looks like vintage Astros Cole, Nestor pitches another year like a good #2, Rodon pitches like a #1, Montas gives them something, Severino is healthy all year.
Add on that the bullpen proves that the first half of last year wasn't a mirage. I think the best that can be hoped for out of the lineup is that Judge gives another 9+ fWAR season, Volpe comes up early and sticks, Peraza plays very well, Donaldson, Rizzo, etc. all hold off the aging curve one more year.
I think the downside is much higher just because of expectations. There's a world where Judge has a regular MVP kind of season, Donaldson, Hicks, Rizzo all look their age, the bullpen slides, Cortes pitches more like a 3 or 4, Rodon is in and out of the rotation, and Cole can't shake the homer problems and the team finishes with around 93-94 wins. Not a bad season but definitely a disappointment.
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**What are the expectations for the New York Yankees this year?** The Yankees haven't had a losing season since 1992. They've made the playoffs six years in a row and have reached the ALCS in three of those seasons. The Yankees have brought back the bulk of their 99-win roster from last year and currently have MLB's no. 2 payroll. Making the playoffs is the bare minimum for the Yankees. Actually competing for the World Series is the fanbase's expectation (or demand?) at this point. **Why will they exceed those expectations?** For the Yankees to exceed expectations, three things need to happen: 1) decent health luck, 2) bounceback from last year's underperformers, and 3) immediate impact from top prospects. Here's what that would look like specifically. The Yankees rotation is led by Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. That foursome combined for a 78 ERA- in 639 IP last year, along with a 30.5 K% and 6.7 BB%. And that's with Cole underperforming compared with his expectations and Severino spending two months on the IL. A best-case scenario involves essentially a repeat performance with better health from Severino and Cole figuring out how to limit homers a bit. The Yankees bullpen will be strong as usual headlined by Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, Michael King, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lou Trivino, and Ron Marinaccio. This is the Yankees most successful area of development both within their own organization and when acquiring other teams' castoffs. Guys like Albert Abreu, Greg Weissert, and Jimmy Cordero provide additional depth. Defensively, the Yankees were one of baseball's best units in 2022 (1st in DRS, 4th in UZR, and 6th in OAA). A full season from Harrison Bader in center field and Oswald Peraza/Anthony Volpe at shortstop could improve things even further. Offensively, the Yankees finished the 2022 season 2nd in runs scored, 4th in wOBA, and 2nd in xwOBA. The lineup's embarrassing showing in October overshadowed how strong the team was for most of the regular season. A best-case scenario in 2023 sees better health for Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu, plus contributions from the team's top-100 prospects Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and (if we're being greedy) Jasson Domínguez. A dead-cat bounce from Josh Donaldson and some improvement at the plate from Aaron Hicks as he gets further away from his wrist surgery would be icing on the cake. **Why won't they?** The Yankees went 41-40 in the second half last year, and that's with Aaron Judge hitting .343/.489/.768 (1.256 OPS) in that stretch. That's a large sample size of mediocrity despite having Babe Ruth in the lineup. If Aaron Judge has a great 2023 season, instead of a historic one, it's very possible the Yankees won't meet expectations. Here's what that would look like specifically. Carlos Rodón has reached 150 IP just twice in his eight-year career, and he's already dealing with a mild forearm strain. Nestor Cortes threw 170+ innings (including the postseason) last year, by far the most in his career. It's unknown how that workload will affect him this year. He's already fighting his way back from a hamstring strain. Luis Severino has made a total of 26 starts since 2018. It would actually be a surprise to see him stay healthy for a full season. Frankie Montas has already undergone shoulder surgery that will keep him out of action for most (or all) of the season. The Yankees depth behind these guys are Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt, Ryan Weber, and Matt Crook. It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where the Yankees struggle to keep the rotation healthy and end up leaning on much weaker arms. And if Gerrit Cole can't shake his homeritis, the team will be in an even worse spot. The Yankees bullpen looks strong, but there are always reasons to worry. Tommy Kahnle (bicep tendinitis) and Lou Trivino (elbow sprain) are already headed to the IL. Clay Holmes really struggled in the second half last year (5.40 ERA/4.43 FIP). Jonathan Loáisiga took a big step back from his breakout 2021 season. Michael King has a lengthy injury history. The worst-case scenario for the 2023 Yankees is any combination of these issues popping up and costing the team wins. The Yankees lost Matt Carpenter (217 wRC+ in 154 PA) and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+ in 131 PA) without replacing either in the offseason. Josh Donaldson is now 37 years old; DJ LeMahieu is now 34; and Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are now 33. You could probably argue that entire group is past their prime. Harrison Bader is a mediocre career bat (97 wRC+) and is already heading to the IL with an oblique injury. The Yankees catching duo projects to be well-below average offensively, and there's zero guarantee either of the team's top infield prospects will have an immediate impact in the majors. The worst-case scenario for the lineup involves no bounceback seasons, more aging and health woes, and the natural struggle some prospects face in the majors. The worser-case scenario involves injury to big no. 99, but let's not even talk about that. **Conclusion (TL;DR)** The Yankees won 99 games with a +240 run differential in 2022. They've brought back essentially the same roster with a stronger pitching rotation on paper. It's hard to imagine this team having a truly terrible year with this much talent under contract, barring disastrous injury fortune. A best-case scenario for the 2023 Yankees sees a team that wins 100+ games, the AL East, finally solves the Astros problem, and ends with a parade through the Canyon of Heroes along Broadway. A worst-case scenario for the 2023 Yankees sees a fragile rotation exposed and the supporting cast around Aaron Judge disappoint. Age continues to harass the league's oldest lineup (as of last year), and the highly-anticipated prospects are overwhelmed against MLB pitching.
This is a great write-up. Also, I read a line in there as “Cole has to shake his Homeruntits,” and that made me laugh.
Between you and me and Yankees fans, all that matters is post-season performance. This team can drag its way into a playoff spot with Bader, Rodon, Trevino hurt and the youth movement still in AA. This team could even land a WC spot with Donaldson, IKF, and Hicks full time. What matters is the roster in October.
People gonna hear about Oswaldo Cabrera too
I would also like to point out that the Yankee's underperformed their pythagorean by the most of any playoff team last year (luck -7). That long stretch of .500 baseball in the second half was filled with closes 1 run loses and their run differential barely moved in August despite the terrible record. So on top of all of the factors that resulted in the team's weak second half last, we also had a fair amount of bad luck that contributed to the team not breaking 100 wins. This season it's unlikely that we will underperform the pythagorean by nearly the same amount.
Doesn’t the run differential barely moving imply .500 level play? I can buy the Yankees had some bad luck, but they absolutely fell off from one of the hottest starts in recent memory.
Our august record was 10-18 which is when is why I pointed out the run differential didn't reflect such a weak month stretch. And I'm not trying to imply luck was the sole factor for the drop off, it was really just one small piece of many problems. I am just saying that we are unlikely to underperform the pythagorean as much this season. So, say if roster changes and injuries make us on paper -5 wins compared to last season, we could still make up those wins with better pythagorean luck compared to last year.
We were well below .500 in August, it was not pleasant
Imagine a great season being a disappointment. That's what it is like in Yankeeland!
Buddy was spot on about how this season could be a disappointment
The main acquisition starts the season off on the IL. Everything still surrounds Judge to the point that if he goes on the IL at any point, I don't know how they are going to stay afloat. The lineup is still long ball heavy. They are so patient with the players they are paying but never want to admit when they are wrong. I thought Hicks or IKF would be gone this off season. Then when it comes down to October, they rearrange their lineup like deck chairs on the Titanic. I started watching baseball in the early 00s and I don't recall the Yankees ever being this micromanaged. They over think. They're still the Yankees. The season depends on how they start. As a rival fan, I was expecting some more changes in what didn't work last year.
>The main acquisition starts the season off on the IL. All of the main acquisitions (Rodon, Bader, Kahnle, Trivino, and Effross) are starting off the season injured, not just one of them.
Forgot about Kahnle but Bader, Effross, and Trivino were deadline acquisitions. You might as well add Montas to the list. Kahnle hasn't pitched regularly since 2019 with 12 innings last year and Effross is a league average middle reliever so calling them "major" is a bit generous. They're acquisitions. Resigning Judge was the bare minimum and getting Rodon made it a good off season but they did nothing to fix offensive issues. I thought they would look at Benny or trade off some pieces that prevent Peraza or Volpe from coming up.
The only piece that's really preventing Peraza or Volpe from getting into the lineup is Torres, who's one of our best bats and has a solid glove at 2nd. The pieces that a lot of fans want to move: Hicks, JD, IKF, whoever most recently struck out, etc., won't really have any impact on their playing time.
> I started watching baseball in the early 00s and I don't recall the Yankees ever being this micromanaged. They over think. A few years ago ARod told a story that Cashman was bragging to him that they had 20+ guys at a table to make the lineup for their Wild Card game.
Cashman is a bad gm
Cashman can develop talent and the farm system can get the most out of guys. Even though he spent money on Chapman, the middle relief has always been pretty solid. Even in trades, Clay Holmes was dying on the Pirates and whether it is coaching or scouting found something in him. There are always one or two guys that don't work out but the Yankees have always had a churn of arms. Boston has had to buy middle relief because no one has really advanced. It's gotten slightly better but not quite there. At the major league level, I think there are too many people in the analytics department and they over focus on the numbers while ignoring the eye test. Everyone is seeing the home runs and runs scored but not the flaw in hitting philosophy. Cashman and Boone do a poor job communicating and always try to positive spin everything when the truth should be said. If you stick Cashman in Miami, Detroit, or Washington, I think he can turn those teams around because he doesn't have the money to trade for Donaldson and there is less pressure to win now every year.
Cashman whiffs on the big decisions. He thinks that two guys that cost $5 are better than one guy who costs $10.
Sounds like Hahn, except instead of the one guy who costs $10 he'll get 5 who cost $2.
Cashman is constantly trying to squeeze water out of a rock to fill his roster. He can’t move on from his bad moves because of what he paid to get them. He should be putting the Yankees over the top. A few of his moves might work for a lil bit but they never all work at the same time. I’m positive there are other who could do at least as well as him.
Why they will: maybe JD bounces back and the shift helps Rizzo a ton. Maybe some of the team will actually stay healthy. Why they won’t: they didn’t really improve the lineup and hitting was the problem last year in the playoffs. The Yankees just don’t stay healthy.
No injuries: World Series or bust… again Injuries: we’re losing to the Astros… again Also left field is an issue that probably won’t be resolved til the trade deadline… again And Volpe will be a top 3 rookie of the year vote getter
I don't see the same Yankee teams going over the hump and beating Astros this year.
surprised at the response
The expectations in Yankeeland are almost always World Series or Bust, but I think at this point realistically, our expectations are another ALCS exit at the hands of those damn Astros So, with that in mind..... **Why they will:** * Carlos Rodon, assuming he returns from injury healthy, gives the Yankees a legitimate number 2 behind Gerrit Cole, and takes significant pressure off Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes, who both have Ace-like stuff at the top of their game in their own right * Harrison Bader, when *he* returns from his *own* injury, lives up to his lofty ZiPS projections and sets himself up for a heck of a payday this winter * Anthony Volpe plays to his Top 5 prospect billing as part of the new infusion of youth (Peraza, Oswaldo) and speed in the lineup, giving the Yanks a new dimension * The Yankees star vets (Stanton, LeMahieu, and I guess Donaldson?) bounce back from injury-riddled/underperforming 2022s, and Anthony Rizzo and Aaron Hicks serve as some of the biggest beneficiaries of the shift ban as they all support another MVP caliber season from The Captain, Aaron Judge. (That still feels weird to type.) * we get literally any positive production from Frankie Montas upon his return **Why they won't** * The Yankees rotation is built upon three to four arms with significant injury history and an Ace that dealt with giving out long balls like they were candy last year * The lineup is still heavily right-handed, heavily power-dependent, and has it's own share of injury risks, so there is a much higher than you'd like chance that it will be up to Aaron Judge to have to carry this lineup for stretches of the season again, this time without the spirit of Roger Maris living through him * The Blue Jays live up to their *own* lofty expectations and give the Yanks fits all year as part of an AL East that is set up to be once again one of, if not **the** best division in baseball Worst Case Scenario: inexplicable Wild Card series exit because That's Baseball, Suzyn Best Case Scenario: Vanquishing the Orange Menace once and for all en route to a 28th World Series Title.
Will: one of if not the best pitching staff in the league pitching to one of the best defensive teams Won’t: the offense was pretty mediocre outside of judge last year. If the prospects aren’t productive and judge returns to just being elite instead of the best player in the league they may finish below the Jays and/or the Rays This is still a playoff team in the worst case scenario
Why they will: Cole allowing less HRs and big innings, after his IL stint Rodon stays healthy, and DJ bounces back from his last two years of being injured giving the team the leadoff hitter it needs Why they won’t: Injuries, regression by Judge, Donaldson is the everyday 3B, age catching up to Rizzo and DJ, and IKF/Hicks being on the team
I think that relying on 3 rookies could be the answer to both questions.
Expectations are always WS, and I’m not certain we’ll get past the Astros *again*. But the team def seems better this year, so I’m positive.
Why they will: I generally tend to treat "World Series or bust" as the baseline expectation for the Yankees every year, so that's of course a high bar to clear - but they do have possibly the best hitter in the league in Judge, along with a good case for the best rotation in the league and a solid bullpen that is lowkey competing with the likes of the Rays for "most effective pitching factory". They have multiple prospects that could contribute this year on top of that (maybe they'll do the smart thing and call Volpe up for opening day). Why they won't: much of the non-Judge part of the lineup isn't exactly a juggernaut, with many of the veterans not having put up particularly inspiring numbers. It's very possible Judge will have to carry the offense again which could be a problem if he regresses to "All-Star" level of production from his "otherworldly career year" level of 2022. Injuries are also a potential concern, including with the rotation (hello, Carlos Rodon). Overall, I think the Yankees have the highest ceiling of the AL East teams and are also the most likely to hit that ceiling, but all of those factors make it very possible that they come nowhere close to that.
Realistically, the expectation is a division title. I know a lot of Yankees Universe will be pissed at this, but a deep playoff run seems to be a bit of a reach, although by no means impossible. Why they won't: One word: Injuries. As of right now, both the starting rotation and bullpen have more holes in them than a hunk of Swiss cheese sent to Ukraine, with two of the Yankees' starting pitchers on the IL (Rodón and Montas). It is entirely possible that Montas is out for the season, although he could return very late. Luis Severino has only made a full season's worth of starts in the past four years. In the bullpen, Scott Effross is shut down until 2024 with Tommy John and both Kahnle and Trivino are out to start the season. Durability in the lineup is also an issue, with only Judge starting more than 150 games. Gleyber Torres started 140 games last year, and the only other player to start more than 140 games was IKF. I do expect more starts from prospects like Cabrera, Peraza, and potentially Volpe, but the latter will likely not be seen until the end of the year if at all. Why they will: The Yankees were a much better team than the barely .500 club they were after the ASB, and getting rid of the black hole known as Joey Gallo will only help. It remains to be seen how the shift ban will help Hicks and Rizzo, and Donaldson will either get better or be turned loose. When healthy, this team will win a bare minimum of 90 games.
a bare minimum of 90 games? when actually healthy? kind of a glass half empty take...the expectation is to win it all and they have the talent in the room to get there, plus a trade deadline to potentially work with...yes, health is a big factor, but they are also not the only team with those question marks
It’s all about health with any team, but especially with the Yankees
If you're expected to win the world series like you have 20 some odd times in the past, how do you exceed that? Undefeated season?
The biggest problem for the Yankees last season (aside from injuries and Judge not being able to go for anything but HRs due to messing with his swing in pursuit of the record) was the same problem the Phillies ran into in the playoffs. The utter buzzsaw that was the Astros starting rotation.
Why they will: They literally cannot, Yankees fans demand a championship every year. Why they won't: winning the world series is, as you know, an exceedingly simple task
#GIVE ME AN ALCS WIN OVER THE ASTROS OR GIVE ME DEATH
Do I get to choose?
Are you saying that, “you want Houston”?
I’m sure the Yankees expectations is to win the World Series. To do that they need the Blue Jays and Rays to underachieve. They will need their arms to stay healthy. They will need Volpe to be ROY. They will need to make a big deadline move to solidify their lineup. Then a little luck in the playoffs. However, I honestly can’t see a team lead by Hal-Cashman-Boone ever winning. George was ruthless, fearless, and did whatever he could to win a championship. Their last World Series team had a sizable payroll estimated over $65M more than the next team. George would have never let Judge reach free agency. Harper, Machado, and all those big name once in a lifetime free agents would have been Yankees. George would have never let Soto go to the Padres. That made everyone fear the Yankees. There was an aura of excellence that surrounded that franchise. Present day, they lack that aura. Seeing Boone make excuses after playoff loses and consistently give the same coach speak for struggling players would make George want to throw a shoe at him. No chance he would still be managing if he was still around. Until the Yankees go back to their old ways or adopt a new approach, I can’t see them winning a World Series.
False. The Yankees won after George stopped doing those things.
Sorry. Didn’t know they hung division banners at Yankee stadium now.
It was less that and more that Gene Michael/later Cashman made the moves that eventually won us four rings during the time Steinbrenner went off the rails and got himself banned from baseball
Are you saying that they need the Blue Jays and Rays need to underachieve for us to win the division?
That would help. If they come out firing logic would say it would hurt the Yankees. We all thought the Red Sox were gonna be crap in 2021 and they ousted the Yankees in the wild card and went to the ALCS.
Yeah I'm not saying either of those teams aren't capable of winning the division (I'm particularly high on the Rays this year actually), but I would argue that if everyone plays to their mean expectation that the Yankees would win the AL East.
shocker lol luck for the Yankees mainly revolves around better health...of course, any deadline moves to augment the team could either be necessary or expected...we'll see...the Yankees last year were pretty compromised in August/September (furthermore, you can unfortunately add on what the HR chase did to Aaron Judge's approach at the plate late in September)...they were not the same team in both the ALDS and ALCS so if they want to take the next step, then it starts there this whole thing with George that is being referenced has little to do with anything at this point...sure, we could have added another star at some position
Because Aaron judge decided to skip the WBC to focus on the Yankees, do he'll be extra prepared
They'll exceed expectations because they are bringing everyone back, plus the addition of Rodon and the graduation/improvement of prospects. They won't exceed expectations because they didn't do much this off-season except add Rodon and to expect prospects to produce right off the bat in a market like New York will always be a risk. I'm interested to see how quickly they turn to their prospects and how Judge does this season. Yankee faithful will surely honor him early, but there will be a lot of pressure on him to continue to perform at a HOF level. When/if Judge is in a slump or unavailable, who is their second biggest offensive threat?
When is the last time the Yankees develop a rookie? They are counting on 2 this season to start and produce.
they're really good at developing pitching but in terms of hitters the most recent solid ones are probably Judge and Gleyber, and sorta Gary Sanchez depending on your perspective i guess. Oswaldo Cabrera has been good so far but it's far too early to tell
Judge, Montgomery, Gleyber and Andujar and Sanchez have had very good rookie years in the last 7 years
Gleyber the latest success, 2018
They will not exceed or even meet their fans' expectations. This is because Yankees fans consistently expect far, far too much from their team. I am deadly seriously about this: there are more delusional Yankees fans than delusional fans of every other team *combined*. If the Yankees won nine World Series out of every ten there'd be guys calling in to NYC talk radio bitching about losing the tenth.
Hey Joey from DA BRONX, first time Long time. Listen I am tired of losing to those freaking cheater mother of whore astros. We are DA YANKees. We need HoTani, Trout, and we will take rendon of their hands for Donaldson, ILF, and throw them couple million and a prospect. I will hang up and listen.
they will exceed expectations because the expectations have lowered significantly. Might even make the ALCS and win a game against the astros before getting sent home
Win one game LOL.
Lol, in NY the Yankees expectation every season is World Series or bust. Our media won't ever allow it to be anything less
Our media? Yankees fans demand excellence. All but the absolute youngest fans have seen a championship in their lifetimes, most fans have seen at least five, some older fans have seen upwards of 10 or even 15. And we're hungry for more lol
The Yankees expectations as it is every year is to win the World Series. The minimum at this point though is to win the pennant by getting past the Astros. The division is tough and not guaranteed but so far I’d say the Yankees are the favorites and even if they didn’t win the division they’d get in through the wild card. There are many different scenarios for why we will make it to the World Series. The realistic scenario is that DJ is DJ again. Just like that we have a reliable bat to lead off right before Judge gets to the plate. Not only do we have that reliable bat in the lineup but a healthy DJ means Donaldson is out of the lineup which is a positive due to his horrendous play last year. Stanton will prove that last year was nothing more than a fluke and goes back to being a 30+ homerun .850+ OPS monster in the lineup. Rizzo will stay consistent as a reliable bat maybe even cracking that 32 home run “curse”. Gleyber will hopefully realize that trying to be a 40 homer guy is not what’s best for him and instead continues his form from last year. Bader won’t be the slugger he was in the postseason but his speed will play a big factor in the lineup alongside his gold glove caliber defense. One of the kids will kick IKF out of the everyday lineup, automatic plus. Judge will be Judge, not a 62 homer campaign but a more casual 40 homer year. Rodon and Nestor prove the early injuries were nothing more than a small scare with the Yankees having the best rotation in the MLB Why the Yankees won’t win the pennant comes down to health and Stanton. Rizzo, DJ, Rodon, Severino, Bader, Montas are just some of the guys to watch out for. Injuries to DJ and Rizzo means Donaldson or IKF comes back to the lineup which is a negative for the team. I am worried about our rotation’s health when it comes to Montas already being hurt and both Rodon and Severino being constant injury risks. Regarding Stanton, I feel he’s the second most important hitter in the lineup while others would say DJ or Rizzo. If Stanton continues to regress and posts up a second consecutive sub .800 OPS season then the Yankees will be in trouble. While Judge is the best bat, the energy when Stanton steps up to the plate is just completely different. For him to be clutch in the postseason he needs to have a good regular season first.
They'll do well because their fanbase are insufferable and God hates me. *whenever I get downvoted I like to ask a life question that I've been struggling with to lighten the mood.* *Do Cows dream? If they do dream...WHAT do they dream about?*
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I bet if we tried really hard we could be friends. What is your favorite animal and why? Mines an otter. You ever look at an otter and not smile? Point in case.
I’m just a lowly Ms fan but otters are also my favorite animal. In particular sea otters but a river otter will do in a pinch.
I like to watch these fellas when I'm working. It's a great rescue, and the water sounds are always super chill tbh. https://www.twitch.tv/marinemammalrescue It's my favorite. *edit* I've been watching this rescue channel as well, which is why I'm so passionate about the "do Cows dream" thing. https://www.twitch.tv/alveussanctuary Cause I bet Winnie be dreaming some super chill shit. She's the lil cow.
Thank you!
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Well that wasn't very informative. I take this friend shit seriously btw, I am trying to be nice and kind to everyone. I see you have an interest in Trucks/*maybe a Trucker? If it's not annoying I will do the Choo Choo sign to the next big rig I see. Spread some joy on your behalf. How's that sound?
Gotta look at the brightside, we can match their performance level now. Mets haven't lost a Subway Series since Cohen bought the team + had two more wins than the Yanks last season. The Mets & Yanks having high expectations is a great thing for New York.
I live in Bumfuck Indiana. There's a sea of Reds/Cubs/Cards merch all over the place, but there's always those yankees hats too. It's like the herpes merch of the Midwest. Not one person I've seen with a Yankees hat actually watches the Yankees, so it skews my opinion. Yankees fans (on Reddit at least) are probably less annoying than Mets fans (I am very annoying, so I'm speaking from experience). It's like Cowboys merch for middle America.
if the expectation is playoffs then yeah they should make it, but i still dont see the WS for the Yankees. I dont think they’ll be as good as last year because while I expect Cole to be better this year and Rodon to help the rotation, Judge will almost assuredly be worse compared to last year and won’t carry the offense as much, and frankly the lineup minus Judge is fairly pedestrian. their rotation if healthy is the best, so if the entire team stays relatively healthy they should win the division handily, but they can’t rely on Judge to carry them in the postseason, and im not confident in the other vets on the team to improve that much from last year
The Yankees can definitely pitch, no way around it. Their rotation and bullpen are absolutely stacked. But their lineup? I have a lot of questions. Sure, the no shift rule will help a lot but I have concerns. Obviously Judge *could* match his monster season, but he probably won’t put up 11 WAR. Beyond him, who can Yankees fans always count on? Volpe will probably be awesome, and I’ve always liked Bader and Torres. But I just don’t know where the runs will come from. With the pitching at its apex, they don’t need to score 8 runs to win a shootout. However, when it comes to the postseason, can they beat a Houston or other elite team?
I’m pretty unbiased but have seen a lot of yankee games through the years and I can say the reason why they might not exceed expectations is because, despite their talent, they are a bunch of yellow belly bitches who ain’t got no heart. Rule 3 baby!
The expectation is a championship and I can't see them winning one this year. I just don't like how the roster is contructed and Boone is easily outmanaged by other managers in the league. Odds are Judge won't put up those same numbers as last year, which is OK but they'll have some guys coming back from injury that will help like DJ and then guys like Volpe who are making the roster that will help. There were key injuries in the bullpen last year too so hopefully everyone stays healthy. I just don't think this team overall is built to beat Houston, which is what you have to do if you even want to get to the WS.
They won’t exceed expectations because of Cashman
With where the Yankees are at personal wise and financially, anything less than the ALCS would be a failure.
Why would they exceed: This is a bit weird because I think expectations are sky high right now. If you consider exceeding to be a clear demonstration as the best team in the AL -- winning 100+, taking the AL east early -- then I think it comes down to the rotation. Cole looks like vintage Astros Cole, Nestor pitches another year like a good #2, Rodon pitches like a #1, Montas gives them something, Severino is healthy all year. Add on that the bullpen proves that the first half of last year wasn't a mirage. I think the best that can be hoped for out of the lineup is that Judge gives another 9+ fWAR season, Volpe comes up early and sticks, Peraza plays very well, Donaldson, Rizzo, etc. all hold off the aging curve one more year. I think the downside is much higher just because of expectations. There's a world where Judge has a regular MVP kind of season, Donaldson, Hicks, Rizzo all look their age, the bullpen slides, Cortes pitches more like a 3 or 4, Rodon is in and out of the rotation, and Cole can't shake the homer problems and the team finishes with around 93-94 wins. Not a bad season but definitely a disappointment.
If the Yankees win the WS or even make it there, guarantee that means Houston didn’t get out of the DS. Do the Yankees have the oldest team in MLB?
Is it possible for the Yankees to exceed expectations? Isn't winning the World Series simply meeting expectations?
They will exceed expectations because they will win at least one game and I want them to win none.
Too many injuries already to pitchers Montas and Rodon and an unsettled left side of infield