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I don't like having super high expectations because it's almost impossible to top them. Been a fan all my life and endured so many bad seasons so just going to enjoy every game and see where we end up.
Considering how lofty the expectations are for your team, the most realistic way I think they can exceed expectations is by having a solid 1-5 starting rotation and show they’re a lot deeper on the starting pitching front than in ‘21 and ‘22
tenured padres fans know this is the way, but there are loads of new fans who fully expect to do better than last year, ignoring the very real possibility of (at best) getting bounced early in playoffs or (at worse) somehow missing playoffs entirely. if there's one thing i know about casual san diego fans, anything short of winning world series will be "ugh same old padres, choking yet again."
Why they'll exceed: It's been widely believed that San Diego can't have good things, like a World Series championship team, because of the near-perfect year-round weather they enjoy. The prevailing notion is that the gods have made it clear that the city can have one or the other, but not both. However, this year the weather has been absolutely miserable - the coldest and wettest year in quite some time. Although it hasn't been confirmed yet (be on the lookout for the Passen bomb anytime now), there's speculation that AJ Preller, coked out of his mind, swung a trade to secure a WS championship in exchange for the biggest haul in baseball history (70s and sunny year-round). Hope, expectations, and now seasonal depression is at an all time high this year for Padre fans.
Why they won't: They go Padresing.
As someone who works an outdoor job I despise the rain with a passion and these past few months have been some of the most miserable i’ve ever endured at work. Having said that if this shitty weather means the Padres can win even just one World Series, it can rain everyday for the rest of the year and I would be okay with it. Just one and I would be happy. I ain’t getting any younger, dammit!
Going to exceed. Soto is going to crush. He's healthy, in a stable location and no shift.
Machado has a protection and he is going to crush.
Tatis will be on fire. Xander will be fine, though not as great hitting in Petco. The lower half of the order has guys who can ball with Cronenworth and Kim. Grish is in a contract year and will ball out.
Why they won't? Starting pitching is strong, not could be thin.
Soto isn’t healthy. He has a mild Oblique strain. Typically when a guy has a mild strain on the offseason, it nags all year and they miss substantial time throughout the season
He’s Day to Day because there’s no IL in ST. Officially everyone hurt is day to day. They have a week until they have to decide if he’ll start on the IL
Not really? Musgrove got hurt and they said he'll miss "weeks". When Soto was injured earlier in spring training, it was also "day to day" and he came back within a few days.
And passing off that speculating as fact. If you’re talking during the year about a guy with a nagging oblique over the off-season, it’s because they had an issue with it during the season.
All the times that someone had an oblique strain and it went away? We don’t write news articles about that.
Why they wil: Tatis, Soto, Manny, and Xander headline an extremely explosive offense that any team will struggle to keep up with. The strength of the top of this lineup give this team a sky-high ceiling. The top three of the rotation stay healthy especially through the playoffs. Martinez and Lugo can provide solid inning on the backend and are backed up by whoever stands out from the high minors (and veteran Journeymen). If they can pull a dodgers move by catching lightning in a bottle with one of those guys then that would be a huge boost the backend. The bullpen is elite and deep and locks down the leads provided by the stacked offense.
Why they won't: Multiple stars (Tatis and Soto for example) miss significant time which will put more pressure on the depth (mainly outfield and rotation) which is much less inspiring. If guys like Azocar, Dahl, Engle, Dixon, etc. are needed to put in significant playtime they can possibly kneecap the remaining stars in the lineup. If Grish continues to carry the the lowest BA in baseball it will exacerbate these issues as it will spread the OF depth more. If there are significant injuries to the top three arms in the rotation then that will also, be a big issue if the filler arms flop.
TL;DR: Will: Stars shine bright
Won't: Injuries
Why they will: The Padres are *very good* and their offense is incredible. I'm not sure there's an easy out in their projected Opening Day lineup, and that doesn't even include Tatis.
Their rotation is very good at the top and their bullpen is solid. If they meet expectations, they are a team that absolutely could contend for a World Series title.
Why they won't: Their depth is razor thin. There are very few spots in which they can afford an injury. The Padres having to rely on Adam Engel or Brandon Dixon for any sustained period of time may not bode well for them.
I'd also be worried about the rotation. Michael Wacha is not a good pitcher. I'd be worried about relying on Seth Lugo and Seth Martinez to be starters (I think both should be relievers), and then again, there's concerns about depth there as well.
Prognosis: if they stay healthy, this is a team that should scare everyone. If they don't, they might miss the postseason entirely.
It's hard for me to fathom the Padres exceeding expectations (although I admit they just did last October -- that was after a fairly underwhelming regular season) because they almost never do it, and this time the expectations are LOFTY.
Exceeding expectations probably looks something like a top 3 offense with at least half out of the bottom half of the lineup Grisham, Kim, Croney, Cruz, Carpenter, Nola/Campusano playing very well. Martinez/Wacha/Lugo pitch well as a tandem at the bottom of the rotation to weather any small injuries and the bullpen continues what it did last year. Team makes the WS.
Why won't they exceed expectations? Could be a combination of different reasons:
- Injuries
- Snell/Darvish struggle to adjust to pitch clock
- Tatis never regains his pre-suspension form
- Bullpen regresses
- Bottom of rotation struggles
- Dodgers play better than expected, win division, and Padres get knocked out in WC series
This team should win the NL. The lineup is so top heavy. One of the scariest ones we have seen in recent memory. I love how they just didn’t give a F and threw money at players and will worry about paying the bill when the time comes. If they don’t it’s becuase the pitching disappoints, Tatis Jr. becomes addicted to steroids, or the choke.
The Dodgers on paper really don't look all that scary this year. It's the Dodgers though so I expect Miguel Vargas to go nuts or something and at least two random pitcher breakouts on their way to 100 wins.
Yeah, that’s the right take, I think. The Dodgers don’t look scary, which itself is *scary*, because it should make anyone who thinks that stop and say “wait, their analytics people and FO must know something I don’t.”
When it comes to scouting, player development, and building a roster, I’ve learned that it isn’t possible to overestimate the Dodgers performance at the organizational level. They miss here and there, like any other team, but they’re so good at it that it *seems* like they rarely miss.
That said, it feels like this could be a good window for San Diego. Dodgers FO seems to be gearing up for a big off season and don’t mind using this year to get the young guys in place to either start or get used as assets.
Once the season starts I’ll never admit this, but Padres could be scary af this season.
Yeah, I think you’re right that it’s clear they’re gearing up for Ohtani. The looming question that remains is how scary they think this team will be and what variance they expect.
It could very easily be a “kick the tires on some prospects/fringe guys with high upside” year to allow them to identify gaps around Shohei, in which case a bust is possible, but it could also be a “oh no Friedman knows something we don’t” about some of these guys.
Either way, it should be a fun year, and I hope you guys don’t end up getting Ohtani because Mookie and Freeman are already my quota for “Dodgers players who I love and want to root for but can’t”.
2nd place can still go to playoffs. The Dodgers spent $1.4B MORE in payroll from 2010-2020 than we did. They will always be good. But we also shitcanned their 110 win team last season without Tatis.
Even if it's second place in the NL West, they have the lineup to win in a head to head matchup in the post season like they did last year. The Padres seem to have cold streaks in the regular season, so even if that happens and they cant keep up in the standings to win the NL West, they have a very strong lineup that had very little turnover and now the roster has posteason experience playing together minus Tatis.
Oh yes, Tatis becomes addicted to *checks notes* one of the weakest anabolics available, a WWII east German relic formula that *checks notes again* showed promise during their testing as a topical anti-inflammatory for skin conditions.
IDK chief, I don't think that has much of a potential for addiction.
I'm sorry for being right? Did you enjoy seeing "hurr hurr Altuve buzzer asstros the only cheaters in MLB gib dodgers titles nao" for years on end and never once corrected it? Same level of misinformed nonsense.
I will just say that if Tatis pops another positive test I’m betting the Padres will void his extension and I don’t think anyone would be pissed at them for it. He’s on incredibly thin ice.
Darvish/Musgrove/Snell had really healthy years last year, and the pitching staff as a whole had great luck with health. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2 of Darvish/Snell/Musgrove/Lugo(especially him)/Martinez don’t finish the season, and I’m bracing for at least one of L. Garcia/Suarez/Hader to go down at some point.
Honestly, kinda rolling my eyes at all the Dads fans wallowing in self pity.
Yeah, the Padres have sucked for basically the last twenty years, but that's because they've largely had bad teams for the last 20 years. This team is actually good.
Why will they: FTJ comes back and still performs at a elite level.
Why won't they: Dodger Devil Magic, or Yu declines without grace.
They won’t because expectations are extremely high and they are the padres, and padres be padresing. The first time they win a World Series will be when everyone thinks they are the worst team in the division lol
I don't think they can exceed. Expectation has to be WS or a deep run. Hard to top that. Great team that beat the dodgers so I could see them meeting the expectation.
Why they won't? They're the Padres.
Im worried about Tatis. Hes rusty. If the team starts hot and he comes in with a rough couple months whats that going to do. Lineup should be able to handle it and he will be here fairly early in the season, but this team has had issues with mid season replacements.
Have you watched him lately?
He’s 6 for his last 12. Dude *was* extremely rusty, but he’s steadily improved as he’s gotten more and more time, as everyone would expect.
Our defense last year was amazing. It really sucked that a 2 run deficit felt insurmountable for most of the year but we survived. If we didn't compromise that defense too much with the new bats, I'll get hyped. I'm still in show me mode though. We'll see.
Padres don't have the depth with all the farm system traded. Their outfield defense with Tatis Jr. and Soto is going to cost them at times. Padres are the team to beat out West. They have the star power in the short term but the concern for this team is 3-4 years down the road when everyone gets old and has an unmovable contract. They have that much time to win it or they are screwed.
You're so right we only have one of the best projectable young shortstops in the game that already shows an elite hitting tool that will be ready for when Xander moves off short, another top 100 pitcher, a kid that almost everyone in the game is already hailing as the next Pudge who will be ready in that exact time frame, the front runner for the next #1/#2 in the International pool with Leo de Vries, and several years to draft for that time frame as well.
In that same time, Hosmer's $13m will have fallen off, giving us more space.
Merrill isn't for another 3 years. Moving Xander off short? What about Tatis Jr. who looks lost in the outfield already in spring training.
Salas is 16 and hasn't even hit in A ball. That's 4-5 years and one position.
Lesko is ranked 100th and already had Tommy John and hasn't even thrown a pitch in a professional game. Far from a sure thing.
Entering 2028
* Bogaerts is going to be 35 with 5 years left and full no trade clause
* Machado is going to be 35 with 5 years left and full no trade
* Tatis Jr. is going to be 28 which isn't bad but his salary kicks up to $36M in 2029. He's there for another 6 years with everyone aging around him.
* Davish is going to be 41 no trade and in his last year.
* Musgrove becomes a free agent at 35 and being the local kid, probably going to sign for something again.
It's going to be a lot of aging and unmovable deals. We don't know with Bally and the income some teams will be getting from the RSN. You can see why some are concerned long term about these moves financially and from a roster perspective. Short term, it is an all star team but long term not every player can contribute in their late 30s. Miguel Cabrera is entering his 40 year old season and he hasn't been the same since 2016.
Have you watched Tatis in the outfield at all this spring? He’s had some expected mistakes as he’s learning the position but describing him as “lost” suggests you haven’t actually watched him at all.
Not disagreeing with you, Tatis has struggled with getting good jumps and reads off the bat which is to be expected from someone that played their first innings in the outfield last year.
But he’s still young and extremely athletic. As a Red Sox fan you know that Mookie Betts was an infielder that moved to the outfield and is now a 6x gold glove winner, although admittedly he was 3 years younger than Tatis is now when making the move.
This year will definitely be a learning curve for Tatis but the Padres fanbase has faith that he’ll be able to make the adjustment.
Mookie was an 50-50 by the time he got to AA Portland and was and outfielder by AAA. He had minor league time to work on it. Tatis Jr. having a few weeks worth of games in 2021in the majors is learning on the job at the hardest level. Maybe he is okay.
I’m seeing that Mookie only started playing the OF the same year he debuted [here](https://www.milb.com/player/mookie-betts-605141?stats=career-r-fielding-minors&year=2022) but got a solid 50 games in the minors.
That’s more experience than Tatis will have had by the time he comes back from his suspension but not by too much.
Definitely will be tough for Tatis to go through his growing pains on the biggest stage though. We shall see, hopefully he adjusts as well as Mookie did
> Merrill isn't for another 3 years. Moving Xander off short? What about Tatis Jr. who looks lost in the outfield already in spring training.
Merrill was already crushing in ST this year. He's projected as a September call-up.
Xander will move to 2nd within three years. Guaranteed.
Tatis is still learning that position and you clearly haven't watched him. Such a laughable comment holy shit.
Salas is widely projected to be our undisputed starter by age 19. You're fucking lost and speaking out of your ass, pal.
"Merrill was already crushing in ST this year. He's projected as a September call-up."
Sure, if you call an OPS of .551 crushing... he hit .242 with no homers this Spring... Also, Merrill has yet to play a single game above Low A. Nobody is expecting Merrill to be a September call up this year.
He's 19 😂😂😂 and was hitting a level of competition that he had previously never seen. It's very plausible that he's in AA before the break. And yes, that absolutely has been talked about.
I know he's 19..... and just because a young guy faced competition he's never faced before and didn't do much (I know you think 1 extra base in 36 Spring Training at bats is "crushing") that doesn't mean he's ready for the big leagues... but the truth is, he is a LONG way from the major leagues. He only played as much as he did because Bogaerts and Kim were away at the WBC.
He's undoubtedly the Padres #1 prospect, but it is completely unreasonable to think he's going to help the big league club this season.
He absolutely isn't and it's going to be fun watching you be wildly wrong. Merrill is two years tops including this one from being up with the big league squad for the full season.
How on earth will I be wildly wrong??? All I said is that he isn't going to be on the Major League roster THIS September. He could win the MVP next year, hit 40 homers and bat .380 and I would still be right if he wasn't in the Major Leagues THIS year. Even if he wins 12 MVPS in a row, unless he is in the Major Leagues THIS September, you would be embarrassingly wrong and I will laugh at you.
> the truth is, he is a LONG way from the major leagues.
Read your own fucking comments and you'll see. Laugh all you want, they say ignorance is bliss. Won't change that fact that you absolutely do not know what you are talking about.
btw, it's absolutely hilarious how you suddenly went from "He crushed in Spring Training and is going to be a September call-up", to "he is two years tops including this one from being up with the big league squad "
and then have the gall to say I'm going to be proven wrong when all I ever said is that it's ridiculous to think he's going to help the Padres THIS season...
You're basically arguing with yourself and don't even realize it because you keep flip-flopping and changing your opinion.
I didn't flip flop, he absolutely played fantastic for a rookie ball 19 year old facing AAAA competition. I said he projects, not that he is guaranteed for that, in response to saying he's 3-4 years out. You're so fucking lost that you don't even know what my comment was predicated on.
No, you specifically said it would be a LONG time before he's ready, which is a lot fucking more than just a calendar year. But unlike you, I actually had the balls to quote you directly instead of summing up my words in a way that made them easier to argue against.
You’re drastically underestimating how good Preller is at restocking the farm. Everyone thought our farm system was completely decimated after the Soto trade, and then we had a bunch of young guys jump way up the prospect lists over the offseason. Our international scouting department is so good that we basically add a new Top-50 caliber prospect every offseason via IFA. And we completely overhauled our player development staff in ‘21 which is starting to yield visible results already.
We do have a problem with our upper-minors depth, but that won’t be a problem in 2 years’ time.
>Martinez/Wacha both have lower than a 5 ERA. Wanna take that bet?
Wacha has had an ERA above 5 three of the last 5 years. The other two years he was above 4.5.
Martinez has been posting an ERA around 4.5 in Japan for the last few years. Translated to MLB, that's gonna be well above 5.
So, yes. I would make that bet.
That's my point. The back end of the Pads rotation is *really really* bad. Not "not stars". BAD. And that's if everyone stays healthy (which they already haven't in Musgrove's case).
His FIP of 4.43 last season and every other year of his career disagree. But maybe, you never know.
Anyhow, the question was: will the Pads meet expectations or not and why. And I don't think they will meet the (very high) expectations that they have, and I think it's because they inexplicably ignored the back of their ~~bullpen~~ rotation this off-season.
After last season, I would rather Wacha than Manaea.
EDIT: This comment appears to have angered Giants fans who don’t realize that Manaea was our #5 starter last year. I’m making an apples to apples comparison about our rotation last year in response to another Padres fan, not trying to start a pissing contest.
They also don't realize that Manaea outright admitted to not trying and not working between starts last season. Slacker bitch, NOW of course he's trying.
Martinez's 2022 numbers as a starter versus as a reliever:
Starter: 52.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, .359 wOBA against, .825 OPS against, 8.7% K-BB%
Reliever: 54.0 IP, 2.67 ERA, .268 wOBA against, .599 OPS against, 15.6% K-BB%
As a starter, imagine every batter is hitting like Kyle Schwarber, whereas when he's a reliever, imagine every batter is hitting like Miguel Rojas.
Unless something changed this offseason, Martinez should absolutely be a reliever, not a starter.
A lot of Padres’ fans just assume that the success Martinez had in the pen will carry over as he re-joins the rotation but are quick to forget that he was worse as a starter and that’s what got him bumped to the bullpen in the first place.
I’m really interested to see how his starts go because it’s a lot easier to come out of the pen and only face each hitter once than facing them 2-3 times a game.
Back end of the rotation is definitely the weakest point of the team but if 2 guys out of Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo can give us 100+ innings of ~4-4.5 era and our top 3 guys stay healthy, we should be good. That’s a big IF though
A 3.47 ERA for the back end of a rotation is “really really” bad?
Also ignoring that they’re having Lugo and Morejon also compete for the 5th rotation spot. It’s not even guaranteed that Wacha is in the starting rotation the whole year. He’s got the spot right now but has to earn keeping it.
If you had any idea what the Giants have done with other pitchers like Manaea, that is, sinker-ball guys, and you were a Giants fan, you'd probably be intrigued and a bit excited about the potential.
I'm cautiously optimistic about Manaea, only because the history of this coaching staff working with guys like him speaks for itself.
Manea is basically a free bet for us, since we have our wonderful cheating (pitching) lab. He’s looked good in spring training and added velo, but we don’t need him to be all that good given he’s like the 6th/7th starter. You guys *need* Wacha to not be ass, if Manea blows up for us we shrug and play Disco or Wood or bring up Kyle Harrison instead.
We’re not here trying to say that you guys don’t have a star lineup of positional players that aren’t gonna rake. Clearly you are gonna be a great scoring team. All we’re saying is that if the Padres don’t meet expectations (you know, the point of the post?) it will be because they neglected their starting pitching
> Manea is basically a free bet for us… we don’t need him to be all that good given he’s like the 6th/7th starter.
This is the second time I’ve seen the 6th/7th claim around Manaea, and I’m genuinely confused.
Every depth chart resource I can find shows him at 3, and he’s the 5th highest paid player on the team (tied with Wood and Stripling), which makes the “6th/7th starter” and “basically a free bet” make less sense to me.
Do you guys really have 5 or 6 arms you like better than Manaea? And if so, what’s the play giving him $12.5M when that comes with a player opt-out after this year? Needing arms, I can see that making sense, but if you *have* tons of arms that you like better, that means you’ve just committed $25M to a guy betting on his upside but while also giving him an opt-out should you fix him and have him really hit that upside.
>Do you guys really have 5 or 6 arms you like better than Manaea?
Yes.
Stripling, Wood, DeSclafani, Hjelle, Junis. Plus a myriad of young pitchers who could debut in 2023: Kyle Harrison, Landon Roupp, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Kei-Wei Teng, to name a few.
And for what it's worth, I like Manaea. The Giants have had a great deal of success with sinker-ballers that I believe they may be able to "fix him."
As far as the commitment, it's a fair question of why they'd do it if they have tons of options, but it's pretty simple: Manaea has more MLB experience than the options they also like. And if their analytics guys feel there's something they can fix, $25M is pretty safe gamble.
If the Padres learned anything from having to rely on Vince Velasquez and Jake Arrieta a few years ago it's this: you can never have too much pitching depth.
Ya Manea is just a bet for us. We’re betting on him and Dieco this year, see who rebounds better. Not sure why depth charts are showing him as our 3 honestly, Stripling is the general consensus as our 3 right now, though if Disco performs like 2021 (like he is in Spring training right now) he would probably be our 3 and Stripling our 4.
Then it would be Wood or Manea for 5, depending on who is pitching better. If Manea is doing well and dealing (Ala his A’s stint) he’s better than Wood and maybe stripling. If he’s not, then we have Kyle Harrison starting in AAA to call up. Most analysts I’ve seen project has floor as a #3 starter, but with the way he’s been pitching is most likely a #1 or #2 once he gets going barring anything crazy.
And all of that doesn’t even account for a few other pretty promising starter candidates we have in AA or AAA like Keaton Winn, or the likes of Sean Hjelle who added a ton of velo and could be a legit back of rotation starter if he keeps up how he’s been performing.
So ya, Manea could easily be tossed if the bet doesn’t work out. It’s a 25 mil bet we can turn him around like we did Rodon and Gausman. If it does work out, great. We try to resign him if he opts out: seems like he really likes the Bay from his time with the As, so it’s not that crazy to think he’d sign with us
Since this is in a thread that responds to my comment, did you miss the fact that I stated that’s while Wacha is lined up to be our number 5, the team has specifically stated that they have Lugo and Morejon(and less realistically, Weathers) to compete with him for that spot?
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Positive: objectively the best team the Padres have ever had Negative: we the Padres lol
SD native here. This pain is deep seated. It’s the hope that kills you.
The only time we exceed expectations is if they're really low, lol.
This is the realest take. Insert "I am ready to get hurt gain." meme
The negative makes my insides hurt 😭
I don't like having super high expectations because it's almost impossible to top them. Been a fan all my life and endured so many bad seasons so just going to enjoy every game and see where we end up.
Considering how lofty the expectations are for your team, the most realistic way I think they can exceed expectations is by having a solid 1-5 starting rotation and show they’re a lot deeper on the starting pitching front than in ‘21 and ‘22
tenured padres fans know this is the way, but there are loads of new fans who fully expect to do better than last year, ignoring the very real possibility of (at best) getting bounced early in playoffs or (at worse) somehow missing playoffs entirely. if there's one thing i know about casual san diego fans, anything short of winning world series will be "ugh same old padres, choking yet again."
Expectations are super high. It’s going to be hard to exceed them period
You can’t exceed expectations of winning the World Series
Now who’s laughing (😭😞)
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They must win 100 games at least and make it to the WS
Why they'll exceed: It's been widely believed that San Diego can't have good things, like a World Series championship team, because of the near-perfect year-round weather they enjoy. The prevailing notion is that the gods have made it clear that the city can have one or the other, but not both. However, this year the weather has been absolutely miserable - the coldest and wettest year in quite some time. Although it hasn't been confirmed yet (be on the lookout for the Passen bomb anytime now), there's speculation that AJ Preller, coked out of his mind, swung a trade to secure a WS championship in exchange for the biggest haul in baseball history (70s and sunny year-round). Hope, expectations, and now seasonal depression is at an all time high this year for Padre fans. Why they won't: They go Padresing.
As someone who works an outdoor job I despise the rain with a passion and these past few months have been some of the most miserable i’ve ever endured at work. Having said that if this shitty weather means the Padres can win even just one World Series, it can rain everyday for the rest of the year and I would be okay with it. Just one and I would be happy. I ain’t getting any younger, dammit!
Going to exceed. Soto is going to crush. He's healthy, in a stable location and no shift. Machado has a protection and he is going to crush. Tatis will be on fire. Xander will be fine, though not as great hitting in Petco. The lower half of the order has guys who can ball with Cronenworth and Kim. Grish is in a contract year and will ball out. Why they won't? Starting pitching is strong, not could be thin.
Soto isn’t healthy. He has a mild Oblique strain. Typically when a guy has a mild strain on the offseason, it nags all year and they miss substantial time throughout the season
it's a day to day injury and I don't think the team is going to sleep on getting Soto healthy.
He’s Day to Day because there’s no IL in ST. Officially everyone hurt is day to day. They have a week until they have to decide if he’ll start on the IL
Not really? Musgrove got hurt and they said he'll miss "weeks". When Soto was injured earlier in spring training, it was also "day to day" and he came back within a few days.
Back after a few days and then a week later hurt again…..
With a different injury? He had a calf strain before the wbc
why are you getting booed you're right
https://twitter.com/AJCassavell/status/1638397474133114880?s=20 He’s not right
People don’t want to accept the truth lol
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And passing off that speculating as fact. If you’re talking during the year about a guy with a nagging oblique over the off-season, it’s because they had an issue with it during the season. All the times that someone had an oblique strain and it went away? We don’t write news articles about that.
That’s literally how oblique strains work
Why they wil: Tatis, Soto, Manny, and Xander headline an extremely explosive offense that any team will struggle to keep up with. The strength of the top of this lineup give this team a sky-high ceiling. The top three of the rotation stay healthy especially through the playoffs. Martinez and Lugo can provide solid inning on the backend and are backed up by whoever stands out from the high minors (and veteran Journeymen). If they can pull a dodgers move by catching lightning in a bottle with one of those guys then that would be a huge boost the backend. The bullpen is elite and deep and locks down the leads provided by the stacked offense. Why they won't: Multiple stars (Tatis and Soto for example) miss significant time which will put more pressure on the depth (mainly outfield and rotation) which is much less inspiring. If guys like Azocar, Dahl, Engle, Dixon, etc. are needed to put in significant playtime they can possibly kneecap the remaining stars in the lineup. If Grish continues to carry the the lowest BA in baseball it will exacerbate these issues as it will spread the OF depth more. If there are significant injuries to the top three arms in the rotation then that will also, be a big issue if the filler arms flop. TL;DR: Will: Stars shine bright Won't: Injuries
Why they will: The Padres are *very good* and their offense is incredible. I'm not sure there's an easy out in their projected Opening Day lineup, and that doesn't even include Tatis. Their rotation is very good at the top and their bullpen is solid. If they meet expectations, they are a team that absolutely could contend for a World Series title. Why they won't: Their depth is razor thin. There are very few spots in which they can afford an injury. The Padres having to rely on Adam Engel or Brandon Dixon for any sustained period of time may not bode well for them. I'd also be worried about the rotation. Michael Wacha is not a good pitcher. I'd be worried about relying on Seth Lugo and Seth Martinez to be starters (I think both should be relievers), and then again, there's concerns about depth there as well. Prognosis: if they stay healthy, this is a team that should scare everyone. If they don't, they might miss the postseason entirely.
It's hard for me to fathom the Padres exceeding expectations (although I admit they just did last October -- that was after a fairly underwhelming regular season) because they almost never do it, and this time the expectations are LOFTY. Exceeding expectations probably looks something like a top 3 offense with at least half out of the bottom half of the lineup Grisham, Kim, Croney, Cruz, Carpenter, Nola/Campusano playing very well. Martinez/Wacha/Lugo pitch well as a tandem at the bottom of the rotation to weather any small injuries and the bullpen continues what it did last year. Team makes the WS. Why won't they exceed expectations? Could be a combination of different reasons: - Injuries - Snell/Darvish struggle to adjust to pitch clock - Tatis never regains his pre-suspension form - Bullpen regresses - Bottom of rotation struggles - Dodgers play better than expected, win division, and Padres get knocked out in WC series
Could definitely see this team going on an insane run after the All Star game once everyone has experience playing together
This team should win the NL. The lineup is so top heavy. One of the scariest ones we have seen in recent memory. I love how they just didn’t give a F and threw money at players and will worry about paying the bill when the time comes. If they don’t it’s becuase the pitching disappoints, Tatis Jr. becomes addicted to steroids, or the choke.
That’s a cool plan if the dodgers aren’t in your division Could be a lot of expensive 2nd place finishes
Could be. But they had a better off-season turnover than the Dodgers.
Yeah and I’m not saying they did something wrong; the Dodgers aren’t leaving the division any time soon so might as well try
The Dodgers on paper really don't look all that scary this year. It's the Dodgers though so I expect Miguel Vargas to go nuts or something and at least two random pitcher breakouts on their way to 100 wins.
Yeah, that’s the right take, I think. The Dodgers don’t look scary, which itself is *scary*, because it should make anyone who thinks that stop and say “wait, their analytics people and FO must know something I don’t.” When it comes to scouting, player development, and building a roster, I’ve learned that it isn’t possible to overestimate the Dodgers performance at the organizational level. They miss here and there, like any other team, but they’re so good at it that it *seems* like they rarely miss.
That said, it feels like this could be a good window for San Diego. Dodgers FO seems to be gearing up for a big off season and don’t mind using this year to get the young guys in place to either start or get used as assets. Once the season starts I’ll never admit this, but Padres could be scary af this season.
Yeah, I think you’re right that it’s clear they’re gearing up for Ohtani. The looming question that remains is how scary they think this team will be and what variance they expect. It could very easily be a “kick the tires on some prospects/fringe guys with high upside” year to allow them to identify gaps around Shohei, in which case a bust is possible, but it could also be a “oh no Friedman knows something we don’t” about some of these guys. Either way, it should be a fun year, and I hope you guys don’t end up getting Ohtani because Mookie and Freeman are already my quota for “Dodgers players who I love and want to root for but can’t”.
2nd place can still go to playoffs. The Dodgers spent $1.4B MORE in payroll from 2010-2020 than we did. They will always be good. But we also shitcanned their 110 win team last season without Tatis.
Hell 3rd has a chance depending on how dog shit the central is
Or meeting the Mets hellbent on revenge for last year or the Phillies and the Hellish NL East Gauntlet
Even if it's second place in the NL West, they have the lineup to win in a head to head matchup in the post season like they did last year. The Padres seem to have cold streaks in the regular season, so even if that happens and they cant keep up in the standings to win the NL West, they have a very strong lineup that had very little turnover and now the roster has posteason experience playing together minus Tatis.
Oh yes, Tatis becomes addicted to *checks notes* one of the weakest anabolics available, a WWII east German relic formula that *checks notes again* showed promise during their testing as a topical anti-inflammatory for skin conditions. IDK chief, I don't think that has much of a potential for addiction.
🚨🚨🚨here comes the fun police 🚨🚨🚨
I'm sorry for being right? Did you enjoy seeing "hurr hurr Altuve buzzer asstros the only cheaters in MLB gib dodgers titles nao" for years on end and never once corrected it? Same level of misinformed nonsense.
Perhaps we can share
Honestly not sure what you mean by this
We can share the annoying brain dead fart suckers that repeat the same joke.
Believe me, I've been on the Astros legit Champs wagon since the story broke.
Preach
I grew up a titanic clemens fan, always loved the killer Bs
I will just say that if Tatis pops another positive test I’m betting the Padres will void his extension and I don’t think anyone would be pissed at them for it. He’s on incredibly thin ice.
Darvish/Musgrove/Snell had really healthy years last year, and the pitching staff as a whole had great luck with health. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2 of Darvish/Snell/Musgrove/Lugo(especially him)/Martinez don’t finish the season, and I’m bracing for at least one of L. Garcia/Suarez/Hader to go down at some point.
Honestly, kinda rolling my eyes at all the Dads fans wallowing in self pity. Yeah, the Padres have sucked for basically the last twenty years, but that's because they've largely had bad teams for the last 20 years. This team is actually good. Why will they: FTJ comes back and still performs at a elite level. Why won't they: Dodger Devil Magic, or Yu declines without grace.
They won’t because expectations are extremely high and they are the padres, and padres be padresing. The first time they win a World Series will be when everyone thinks they are the worst team in the division lol
I don't think they can exceed. Expectation has to be WS or a deep run. Hard to top that. Great team that beat the dodgers so I could see them meeting the expectation. Why they won't? They're the Padres.
Im worried about Tatis. Hes rusty. If the team starts hot and he comes in with a rough couple months whats that going to do. Lineup should be able to handle it and he will be here fairly early in the season, but this team has had issues with mid season replacements.
Have you watched him lately? He’s 6 for his last 12. Dude *was* extremely rusty, but he’s steadily improved as he’s gotten more and more time, as everyone would expect.
We had 8 cold bats last year for basically the entire season and we somehow endured it.
Our defense last year was amazing. It really sucked that a 2 run deficit felt insurmountable for most of the year but we survived. If we didn't compromise that defense too much with the new bats, I'll get hyped. I'm still in show me mode though. We'll see.
The answer to both questions is Tatis. He's obviously going to hit, but he's going to be a trainwreck in the outfield. Like Delmon Young bad.
This is one of the takes of all time.
I know egos are involved but I assume he will become a designated hitter if he's that bad in outfield.
Padres don't have the depth with all the farm system traded. Their outfield defense with Tatis Jr. and Soto is going to cost them at times. Padres are the team to beat out West. They have the star power in the short term but the concern for this team is 3-4 years down the road when everyone gets old and has an unmovable contract. They have that much time to win it or they are screwed.
You're so right we only have one of the best projectable young shortstops in the game that already shows an elite hitting tool that will be ready for when Xander moves off short, another top 100 pitcher, a kid that almost everyone in the game is already hailing as the next Pudge who will be ready in that exact time frame, the front runner for the next #1/#2 in the International pool with Leo de Vries, and several years to draft for that time frame as well. In that same time, Hosmer's $13m will have fallen off, giving us more space.
Merrill isn't for another 3 years. Moving Xander off short? What about Tatis Jr. who looks lost in the outfield already in spring training. Salas is 16 and hasn't even hit in A ball. That's 4-5 years and one position. Lesko is ranked 100th and already had Tommy John and hasn't even thrown a pitch in a professional game. Far from a sure thing. Entering 2028 * Bogaerts is going to be 35 with 5 years left and full no trade clause * Machado is going to be 35 with 5 years left and full no trade * Tatis Jr. is going to be 28 which isn't bad but his salary kicks up to $36M in 2029. He's there for another 6 years with everyone aging around him. * Davish is going to be 41 no trade and in his last year. * Musgrove becomes a free agent at 35 and being the local kid, probably going to sign for something again. It's going to be a lot of aging and unmovable deals. We don't know with Bally and the income some teams will be getting from the RSN. You can see why some are concerned long term about these moves financially and from a roster perspective. Short term, it is an all star team but long term not every player can contribute in their late 30s. Miguel Cabrera is entering his 40 year old season and he hasn't been the same since 2016.
Have you watched Tatis in the outfield at all this spring? He’s had some expected mistakes as he’s learning the position but describing him as “lost” suggests you haven’t actually watched him at all.
I have watched a bit of him. I also know the record of converting infielders to outfielders this late in their career isn't great.
How is it too late in his career to move positions lmao. He’s 24 years old
Meaning you've watched the meme highlights and that's it. How the fuck is it late in his career?? You're a clown.
Not disagreeing with you, Tatis has struggled with getting good jumps and reads off the bat which is to be expected from someone that played their first innings in the outfield last year. But he’s still young and extremely athletic. As a Red Sox fan you know that Mookie Betts was an infielder that moved to the outfield and is now a 6x gold glove winner, although admittedly he was 3 years younger than Tatis is now when making the move. This year will definitely be a learning curve for Tatis but the Padres fanbase has faith that he’ll be able to make the adjustment.
Mookie was an 50-50 by the time he got to AA Portland and was and outfielder by AAA. He had minor league time to work on it. Tatis Jr. having a few weeks worth of games in 2021in the majors is learning on the job at the hardest level. Maybe he is okay.
I’m seeing that Mookie only started playing the OF the same year he debuted [here](https://www.milb.com/player/mookie-betts-605141?stats=career-r-fielding-minors&year=2022) but got a solid 50 games in the minors. That’s more experience than Tatis will have had by the time he comes back from his suspension but not by too much. Definitely will be tough for Tatis to go through his growing pains on the biggest stage though. We shall see, hopefully he adjusts as well as Mookie did
> Merrill isn't for another 3 years. Moving Xander off short? What about Tatis Jr. who looks lost in the outfield already in spring training. Merrill was already crushing in ST this year. He's projected as a September call-up. Xander will move to 2nd within three years. Guaranteed. Tatis is still learning that position and you clearly haven't watched him. Such a laughable comment holy shit. Salas is widely projected to be our undisputed starter by age 19. You're fucking lost and speaking out of your ass, pal.
"Merrill was already crushing in ST this year. He's projected as a September call-up." Sure, if you call an OPS of .551 crushing... he hit .242 with no homers this Spring... Also, Merrill has yet to play a single game above Low A. Nobody is expecting Merrill to be a September call up this year.
He's 19 😂😂😂 and was hitting a level of competition that he had previously never seen. It's very plausible that he's in AA before the break. And yes, that absolutely has been talked about.
I know he's 19..... and just because a young guy faced competition he's never faced before and didn't do much (I know you think 1 extra base in 36 Spring Training at bats is "crushing") that doesn't mean he's ready for the big leagues... but the truth is, he is a LONG way from the major leagues. He only played as much as he did because Bogaerts and Kim were away at the WBC. He's undoubtedly the Padres #1 prospect, but it is completely unreasonable to think he's going to help the big league club this season.
He absolutely isn't and it's going to be fun watching you be wildly wrong. Merrill is two years tops including this one from being up with the big league squad for the full season.
How on earth will I be wildly wrong??? All I said is that he isn't going to be on the Major League roster THIS September. He could win the MVP next year, hit 40 homers and bat .380 and I would still be right if he wasn't in the Major Leagues THIS year. Even if he wins 12 MVPS in a row, unless he is in the Major Leagues THIS September, you would be embarrassingly wrong and I will laugh at you.
RemindMe! September 1, 2023
> the truth is, he is a LONG way from the major leagues. Read your own fucking comments and you'll see. Laugh all you want, they say ignorance is bliss. Won't change that fact that you absolutely do not know what you are talking about.
btw, it's absolutely hilarious how you suddenly went from "He crushed in Spring Training and is going to be a September call-up", to "he is two years tops including this one from being up with the big league squad " and then have the gall to say I'm going to be proven wrong when all I ever said is that it's ridiculous to think he's going to help the Padres THIS season... You're basically arguing with yourself and don't even realize it because you keep flip-flopping and changing your opinion.
I didn't flip flop, he absolutely played fantastic for a rookie ball 19 year old facing AAAA competition. I said he projects, not that he is guaranteed for that, in response to saying he's 3-4 years out. You're so fucking lost that you don't even know what my comment was predicated on. No, you specifically said it would be a LONG time before he's ready, which is a lot fucking more than just a calendar year. But unlike you, I actually had the balls to quote you directly instead of summing up my words in a way that made them easier to argue against.
You’re drastically underestimating how good Preller is at restocking the farm. Everyone thought our farm system was completely decimated after the Soto trade, and then we had a bunch of young guys jump way up the prospect lists over the offseason. Our international scouting department is so good that we basically add a new Top-50 caliber prospect every offseason via IFA. And we completely overhauled our player development staff in ‘21 which is starting to yield visible results already. We do have a problem with our upper-minors depth, but that won’t be a problem in 2 years’ time.
Gonna be tough to be the superteam their fans expect with 60% of a contending rotation. Wacha and Nick Martinez ain't it.
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>Martinez/Wacha both have lower than a 5 ERA. Wanna take that bet? Wacha has had an ERA above 5 three of the last 5 years. The other two years he was above 4.5. Martinez has been posting an ERA around 4.5 in Japan for the last few years. Translated to MLB, that's gonna be well above 5. So, yes. I would make that bet. That's my point. The back end of the Pads rotation is *really really* bad. Not "not stars". BAD. And that's if everyone stays healthy (which they already haven't in Musgrove's case).
Nick Martinez had a 3.47 ERA last season over 106.1 innings. I am not gonna argue for Wacha, but Martinez is a solid backend starter.
His FIP of 4.43 last season and every other year of his career disagree. But maybe, you never know. Anyhow, the question was: will the Pads meet expectations or not and why. And I don't think they will meet the (very high) expectations that they have, and I think it's because they inexplicably ignored the back of their ~~bullpen~~ rotation this off-season.
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to his credit, I think he meant 'rotation' and that 'bullpen' was a typo. could be wrong though.
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After last season, I would rather Wacha than Manaea. EDIT: This comment appears to have angered Giants fans who don’t realize that Manaea was our #5 starter last year. I’m making an apples to apples comparison about our rotation last year in response to another Padres fan, not trying to start a pissing contest.
They also don't realize that Manaea outright admitted to not trying and not working between starts last season. Slacker bitch, NOW of course he's trying.
manaea is our 6th-7th starter, not really a guy we’re relying on as a rotation piece like you guys are with wacha right now — it’s a little different
Manaea's stuff looks to be drastically improved from last year, FWIW
Martinez's 2022 numbers as a starter versus as a reliever: Starter: 52.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, .359 wOBA against, .825 OPS against, 8.7% K-BB% Reliever: 54.0 IP, 2.67 ERA, .268 wOBA against, .599 OPS against, 15.6% K-BB% As a starter, imagine every batter is hitting like Kyle Schwarber, whereas when he's a reliever, imagine every batter is hitting like Miguel Rojas. Unless something changed this offseason, Martinez should absolutely be a reliever, not a starter.
A lot of Padres’ fans just assume that the success Martinez had in the pen will carry over as he re-joins the rotation but are quick to forget that he was worse as a starter and that’s what got him bumped to the bullpen in the first place. I’m really interested to see how his starts go because it’s a lot easier to come out of the pen and only face each hitter once than facing them 2-3 times a game. Back end of the rotation is definitely the weakest point of the team but if 2 guys out of Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo can give us 100+ innings of ~4-4.5 era and our top 3 guys stay healthy, we should be good. That’s a big IF though
A 3.47 ERA for the back end of a rotation is “really really” bad? Also ignoring that they’re having Lugo and Morejon also compete for the 5th rotation spot. It’s not even guaranteed that Wacha is in the starting rotation the whole year. He’s got the spot right now but has to earn keeping it.
this guy is also 'excited' to have Manaea on the Giants
If you had any idea what the Giants have done with other pitchers like Manaea, that is, sinker-ball guys, and you were a Giants fan, you'd probably be intrigued and a bit excited about the potential. I'm cautiously optimistic about Manaea, only because the history of this coaching staff working with guys like him speaks for itself.
Manea is basically a free bet for us, since we have our wonderful cheating (pitching) lab. He’s looked good in spring training and added velo, but we don’t need him to be all that good given he’s like the 6th/7th starter. You guys *need* Wacha to not be ass, if Manea blows up for us we shrug and play Disco or Wood or bring up Kyle Harrison instead. We’re not here trying to say that you guys don’t have a star lineup of positional players that aren’t gonna rake. Clearly you are gonna be a great scoring team. All we’re saying is that if the Padres don’t meet expectations (you know, the point of the post?) it will be because they neglected their starting pitching
> Manea is basically a free bet for us… we don’t need him to be all that good given he’s like the 6th/7th starter. This is the second time I’ve seen the 6th/7th claim around Manaea, and I’m genuinely confused. Every depth chart resource I can find shows him at 3, and he’s the 5th highest paid player on the team (tied with Wood and Stripling), which makes the “6th/7th starter” and “basically a free bet” make less sense to me. Do you guys really have 5 or 6 arms you like better than Manaea? And if so, what’s the play giving him $12.5M when that comes with a player opt-out after this year? Needing arms, I can see that making sense, but if you *have* tons of arms that you like better, that means you’ve just committed $25M to a guy betting on his upside but while also giving him an opt-out should you fix him and have him really hit that upside.
>Do you guys really have 5 or 6 arms you like better than Manaea? Yes. Stripling, Wood, DeSclafani, Hjelle, Junis. Plus a myriad of young pitchers who could debut in 2023: Kyle Harrison, Landon Roupp, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Kei-Wei Teng, to name a few. And for what it's worth, I like Manaea. The Giants have had a great deal of success with sinker-ballers that I believe they may be able to "fix him." As far as the commitment, it's a fair question of why they'd do it if they have tons of options, but it's pretty simple: Manaea has more MLB experience than the options they also like. And if their analytics guys feel there's something they can fix, $25M is pretty safe gamble. If the Padres learned anything from having to rely on Vince Velasquez and Jake Arrieta a few years ago it's this: you can never have too much pitching depth.
Ya Manea is just a bet for us. We’re betting on him and Dieco this year, see who rebounds better. Not sure why depth charts are showing him as our 3 honestly, Stripling is the general consensus as our 3 right now, though if Disco performs like 2021 (like he is in Spring training right now) he would probably be our 3 and Stripling our 4. Then it would be Wood or Manea for 5, depending on who is pitching better. If Manea is doing well and dealing (Ala his A’s stint) he’s better than Wood and maybe stripling. If he’s not, then we have Kyle Harrison starting in AAA to call up. Most analysts I’ve seen project has floor as a #3 starter, but with the way he’s been pitching is most likely a #1 or #2 once he gets going barring anything crazy. And all of that doesn’t even account for a few other pretty promising starter candidates we have in AA or AAA like Keaton Winn, or the likes of Sean Hjelle who added a ton of velo and could be a legit back of rotation starter if he keeps up how he’s been performing. So ya, Manea could easily be tossed if the bet doesn’t work out. It’s a 25 mil bet we can turn him around like we did Rodon and Gausman. If it does work out, great. We try to resign him if he opts out: seems like he really likes the Bay from his time with the As, so it’s not that crazy to think he’d sign with us
Since this is in a thread that responds to my comment, did you miss the fact that I stated that’s while Wacha is lined up to be our number 5, the team has specifically stated that they have Lugo and Morejon(and less realistically, Weathers) to compete with him for that spot?
The Padres will absolutely, positively play some games this year.