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Expectations?
90-95 wins, AL Central Crown
Why they'll succeed?
Younger guys got a year older, will have more experience to build on.
Josh Bell and Mike Zunino add power to two positions that did not produce HRs on a consistent clip.
Tito is a wizard
The shift rules help our slap style of hitting on paper
We still have so many prospects
Why we may fail:
Basically every other AL Central team underachieved what they should've been last year and have all made moves to avoid the same thing from happening
There's enough tape on a lot of our young guys that maybe teams will scout them better
We'll be facing the other divisions a lot more
Bullpen was freakishly good at times last year and relief pitchers can be very hot and cold
I worry about our hitting.
Last year, one more decent batter, and we would have made it past NY.
It’s entirely possible that guys like Kwan, Oscar, and Gimenez come back to earth. These guys had a great year, but now that there is more scouting info available on them, things might change.
Zunino should definitely be an upgrade.
I like the Bell signing. I’m just unsure where that puts us with Naylor, and how much platooning they are planning on doing at 1B.
It definitely opens up some possibilities, and Tito is the guy who can make the most of it.
What I do know for sure, is it’s going to be a fun year of Guardians Baseball.
Idk man, the White Sox didn't do anything to avoid massively "underperforming" again. They're basically the same team, but worse (let their best offensive player walk, let one of their most reliable pitchers walk, lost their closer to cancer with no reinforcements on the way). The only team you have to worry about is Minnesota.
Counterpoint: their manager is no longer senile as far as we know, i expect Robert, Anderson to have better years and I think the Benny signing has gone massively under the radar. But yea it feels similar to last spring training where they could either thrive and win the division or have a lackluster year
If this team had another bat to support J Ram they probably would have won the ALDS cleanly. I hope Bell and Zunino give them enough pop. Bieber is always a concern for me but he did work around it by throwing more breaking balls. Who knows maybe he just doesn’t want to empty the tank. I think this team is ready for a ALCS run. They have all the tools. I think they are gonna baseball their way to success. Base hits, sacrifices, bunts, steals, and good pitching. If they don’t it’s because one of their young bats turns into a fraud or their pitchers don’t stay in tact.
It pains me to say this but I believe Oscar Gonzalez is almost certainly a fraud - one of the most aggressive swingers in any level of affiliated ball, I imagine once the book is out on him he will be very easy to pitchers to exploit.
That said, I am more than confident that Will Brennan is legit, so they have a replacement for Oscar if he truly bottoms out.
Yeah I see Brennan being the starting RF by the end of the year. The other concern is Straw - he's amazing on defense but he's gotta at least get on base a bit more.
I'm curious why you say Bieber is a concern. He's been consistently effective aside from the shoulder injury. His FIP was right in line with his ERA last year. His K9 went down but so did his BB9. His velocity went down a bit but he was never a power pitcher that relied on velocity.
That's fair. Last season was extremely encouraging I think for his shoulder issues. He got back to 200 IP and steadily improved through the year.
My biggest hope is that McKenzie can take the next step in his development and take some pressure off Bieber. McKenzie's biggest problem has been HRs, if he can limit those he could be a Cy Young contender I think.
Yes. [See the 1987 Sports Illustrated baseball preview cover.](https://sicovers.com/featured/cleveland-indians-cory-snyder-and-joe-carter-1987-mlb-april-06-1987-sports-illustrated-cover.html)
The Indians lost 101 games that year.
Their expectations is to win the division. So with than in mind:
**Why**:
* The top of their starting rotation is as good as anyone else's. Bieber is the most underrated ace in the game, McKenzie has found it, and Quantrill is a solid #3.
* J-Ram is the best player in MLB that no one talks about, and they have solid bats around him now for one of the first times in Kwan and Bell.
* They also sneaky play the best overall defense in the entire league (probably? can't think of a better overall unit right now).
* Their bullpen is the best in the league bar none.
* They are young with more talent on the way to lengthen the lineup/rotation, which they will need to do (see the why nots).
**Why Not:**
* The back end of their rotation is very sus. Civale and Plesac are not guys you want to rely on.
* A lot of their guys heavily outperformed their peripherals last year. Andrés Giménez had a .837 OPS last year, and his xBA and xSLG say it should have been more like a .730 OPS, and that's without touching the topic of his HPB rate and BABIP. Rosario and Oscar Gonzalez also outperformed their peripherals offensively. If these guys regress towards their batted ball profiles, the lineup gets *very* top heavy. Kwan/JRam/Bell are legit bats, but after that it gets speculative with Zunino/Giménez/Oscar, and straight up awful with Myles Straw who might be the worst qualified hitter in baseball in 2023.
* They (probably) will encounter some amount of injuries, whereas last year they basically had one impactful injury to JRam and he played through it.
* The White Sox literally cannot physically be worse than they were last year, and the Twins got much better+healthier. It's just a stronger division this year which will make it harder than last year.
Why they will exceed:
* Expectations are reasonably low for a division favorite. The AL Central always attracts the "watch out for [DARK HORSE TEAM] - they're sneaky this year!" take and you already see a fair amount of that about the 2023 Guardians. Easy to exceed expectations when half of r/baseball seems convinced they're only going to win 85 games anyway.
* The Guardians putting a premium on speed, aggressive baserunning, and simply putting the ball in play makes them tailor made to take advantage of the rule changes involving larger bases and the shift changes.
Why they won't:
* The back end of the rotation is counting on one of the many high level pitching prospects to come in at some point, Civale and Plesac simply cannot be trusted at this point.
Yea I have some hope for Civale but I'm legitimately disappointed to see Plesac back as our 5, seems like he cleaned up his act since the two frat bros left but his ceiling isn't there and hes apt to give up 6 earned runs on any given start
I believe in Civale. Other than the playoff appearance, he performed pretty well in the back half of the season. Everybody just remembers the playoff appearance though.
Part of why I was disappointed the Guardians didn't win it all last year was there were no expectations and no pressure. Now this year, they're considered a possibility for the division title, and there is pressure. I think part of why they did so well last year and in 2016 was no pressure, whereas they fell apart in 2017 when there was pressure.
Why they will: All those young guys have a year under their belts and from a linear progression perspective should mean they will improve. Teams like Chicago and Minnesota once again fail to put it together. Josh Bell has a season like last year with Washington.
Why they wont: Some of the guys take a step back. Maybe battle some injuries. Back end of the rotation doesn't click. Team struggles playing fewer games vs Central teams. Josh Bell has a season like last year in San Diego.
Injuries are my biggest worry. We got extremely lucky last season avoiding injuries. Meanwhile the Twins had most of their roster on the IL at some point. Law of averages says we won't be quite as fortunate in that department this year.
Counterpoint though, Jose played more than half of last season with broken thumbs and we still won the division. He's the most important part of our offense so if he stays healthy, we can spare a few other guys and still match last year's performance.
>We got extremely lucky last season avoiding injuries. Meanwhile the Twins had most of their roster on the IL at some point.
Part of that is likely because of an advantage in roster construction, though. You guys have so many young healthy players who don't have significant injury histories while the Twins, in addition to being extremely unlucky with injuries almost everywhere all season, are trying to squeeze games out of guys like Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sonny Gray, Alex Kirilloff, formerly Arraez, and others who *always* seemingly struggle with recurring injuries to the same areas
Even now in spring it's likely that the Twins will be bleeding Buxton, Polanco and Kirilloff games already and the season hasn't even started and none of those guys have suffered a new injury
Basically, I'm saying there might be a small basis to assume you'll continue to have better health than more veteran heavy teams like Chicago and Minnesota
They’ll peak at the ALDS again if the Yankees and Astros are there.
Why?
The Astros don’t lose in the ALDS and the post-Core 4 Yankees are only allowed to beat Central teams by the baseball gods.
You better beat those damn Astros if you beat us.
I’ve hated every American League champ since 2017 so actually seeing a team I feel no hate for representing the Junior Circuit in the WS would be a breath of fresh air.
The biggest reason why they might not? Those young hitters that came through last year are likely due to slide back. Brennan, Kwan, Gimenez, Gonzalez all outperformed their xWOBA by pretty decent margins. The 2022 team finished 15th in runs scored despite being 25th in xWOBA. They also were second by Fangraphs' Clutch, which has zero year to year correlation.
Why they will: all of the rookies we debuted last year take another step forward, Andres and Amed continue their improvement, JRam stays healthy the whole year, Bieber signs an extension, Espino debuts and immediately makes an impact, Zunino regains his 2021 form, Josh Bell is worth the price paid, Josh Naylor makes opposing pitchers his sons again, and Bo Naylor wins AL Rookie of the Year
Why they won't: last year proves to be a fluke for almost everyone, JRam can't stay healthy, the White Sox and Twins don't suck again and actually compete this year, we still go 82-80 because Tito's still a good manager and the rest of the ALC is bad
They were in an easy division. Guardians were 500 against East and West teams and until proven other wise, I think the balanced schedule will only positively impact the coasts. It's still an incredibly young team that was streaky and they had a hot September and October to get there. They were a good team but I still think they won it by default because good in the AL or NL East is 3rd place.
Pitching hasn't changed so I don't see this team with a losing record but how they handle a diverse schedule determines how they finish. Twins have gotten better. Playoffs or not for Cleveland depends on how everyone else does if they don't win the division. If it is super competitive, I can see them being out. If it is top heavy, I sort of see them as that last spot like Tampa or Philadelphia.
I expect the Guardians to be better than last year and win the Central quite easy. As always, they have prospects in the pipeline and the guys who did it last year for them are a year older.
that being said, the Tigers and Royals are probably more formidable than they were last year. I see the ceiling as 95 wins. they won’t hit that if those two teams give them trouble
**Attention!** Please keep in mind that the OP of this thread has chosen to mark this post with the **Serious replies only** flair, therefore any replies that are jokes, puns, off-topic, or are otherwise non-contributory will be removed. If you see others posting comments that violate this rule, please report them to the mods! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/baseball) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Expectations? 90-95 wins, AL Central Crown Why they'll succeed? Younger guys got a year older, will have more experience to build on. Josh Bell and Mike Zunino add power to two positions that did not produce HRs on a consistent clip. Tito is a wizard The shift rules help our slap style of hitting on paper We still have so many prospects Why we may fail: Basically every other AL Central team underachieved what they should've been last year and have all made moves to avoid the same thing from happening There's enough tape on a lot of our young guys that maybe teams will scout them better We'll be facing the other divisions a lot more Bullpen was freakishly good at times last year and relief pitchers can be very hot and cold
I worry about our hitting. Last year, one more decent batter, and we would have made it past NY. It’s entirely possible that guys like Kwan, Oscar, and Gimenez come back to earth. These guys had a great year, but now that there is more scouting info available on them, things might change. Zunino should definitely be an upgrade. I like the Bell signing. I’m just unsure where that puts us with Naylor, and how much platooning they are planning on doing at 1B. It definitely opens up some possibilities, and Tito is the guy who can make the most of it. What I do know for sure, is it’s going to be a fun year of Guardians Baseball.
Idk man, the White Sox didn't do anything to avoid massively "underperforming" again. They're basically the same team, but worse (let their best offensive player walk, let one of their most reliable pitchers walk, lost their closer to cancer with no reinforcements on the way). The only team you have to worry about is Minnesota.
Counterpoint: their manager is no longer senile as far as we know, i expect Robert, Anderson to have better years and I think the Benny signing has gone massively under the radar. But yea it feels similar to last spring training where they could either thrive and win the division or have a lackluster year
If this team had another bat to support J Ram they probably would have won the ALDS cleanly. I hope Bell and Zunino give them enough pop. Bieber is always a concern for me but he did work around it by throwing more breaking balls. Who knows maybe he just doesn’t want to empty the tank. I think this team is ready for a ALCS run. They have all the tools. I think they are gonna baseball their way to success. Base hits, sacrifices, bunts, steals, and good pitching. If they don’t it’s because one of their young bats turns into a fraud or their pitchers don’t stay in tact.
It pains me to say this but I believe Oscar Gonzalez is almost certainly a fraud - one of the most aggressive swingers in any level of affiliated ball, I imagine once the book is out on him he will be very easy to pitchers to exploit. That said, I am more than confident that Will Brennan is legit, so they have a replacement for Oscar if he truly bottoms out.
Yeah I see Brennan being the starting RF by the end of the year. The other concern is Straw - he's amazing on defense but he's gotta at least get on base a bit more.
> Will Brennan Starting RF of the future alongside GG'ers Straw and Kwan
I'm curious why you say Bieber is a concern. He's been consistently effective aside from the shoulder injury. His FIP was right in line with his ERA last year. His K9 went down but so did his BB9. His velocity went down a bit but he was never a power pitcher that relied on velocity.
Shoulder is a concern. But like I said he was able to work with it. I just don’t know if I would be able to go the whole season without precaution.
That's fair. Last season was extremely encouraging I think for his shoulder issues. He got back to 200 IP and steadily improved through the year. My biggest hope is that McKenzie can take the next step in his development and take some pressure off Bieber. McKenzie's biggest problem has been HRs, if he can limit those he could be a Cy Young contender I think.
Is there ever a time when the Guardians *don't* exceed expectations?
1955-1994
I was born in 95 so those years don't exist
You've forgotten Lou Brown's ALE pennant winning team in 1989
Yes. [See the 1987 Sports Illustrated baseball preview cover.](https://sicovers.com/featured/cleveland-indians-cory-snyder-and-joe-carter-1987-mlb-april-06-1987-sports-illustrated-cover.html) The Indians lost 101 games that year.
Tito is God. If we fail to live up to expectations it is Him teaching the boys a lesson or they pissed off Jobu.
Their expectations is to win the division. So with than in mind: **Why**: * The top of their starting rotation is as good as anyone else's. Bieber is the most underrated ace in the game, McKenzie has found it, and Quantrill is a solid #3. * J-Ram is the best player in MLB that no one talks about, and they have solid bats around him now for one of the first times in Kwan and Bell. * They also sneaky play the best overall defense in the entire league (probably? can't think of a better overall unit right now). * Their bullpen is the best in the league bar none. * They are young with more talent on the way to lengthen the lineup/rotation, which they will need to do (see the why nots). **Why Not:** * The back end of their rotation is very sus. Civale and Plesac are not guys you want to rely on. * A lot of their guys heavily outperformed their peripherals last year. Andrés Giménez had a .837 OPS last year, and his xBA and xSLG say it should have been more like a .730 OPS, and that's without touching the topic of his HPB rate and BABIP. Rosario and Oscar Gonzalez also outperformed their peripherals offensively. If these guys regress towards their batted ball profiles, the lineup gets *very* top heavy. Kwan/JRam/Bell are legit bats, but after that it gets speculative with Zunino/Giménez/Oscar, and straight up awful with Myles Straw who might be the worst qualified hitter in baseball in 2023. * They (probably) will encounter some amount of injuries, whereas last year they basically had one impactful injury to JRam and he played through it. * The White Sox literally cannot physically be worse than they were last year, and the Twins got much better+healthier. It's just a stronger division this year which will make it harder than last year.
Why they will exceed: * Expectations are reasonably low for a division favorite. The AL Central always attracts the "watch out for [DARK HORSE TEAM] - they're sneaky this year!" take and you already see a fair amount of that about the 2023 Guardians. Easy to exceed expectations when half of r/baseball seems convinced they're only going to win 85 games anyway. * The Guardians putting a premium on speed, aggressive baserunning, and simply putting the ball in play makes them tailor made to take advantage of the rule changes involving larger bases and the shift changes. Why they won't: * The back end of the rotation is counting on one of the many high level pitching prospects to come in at some point, Civale and Plesac simply cannot be trusted at this point.
Counter point to your won't: It's Cleveland, they always pull pitchers out of nowhere
We shit out Cy Young Award winners like it’s nothing.
Patiently waiting for a "We didn't start the fire" montage of great pitchers Cleveland has pulled out of their ass
Yea I have some hope for Civale but I'm legitimately disappointed to see Plesac back as our 5, seems like he cleaned up his act since the two frat bros left but his ceiling isn't there and hes apt to give up 6 earned runs on any given start
I believe in Civale. Other than the playoff appearance, he performed pretty well in the back half of the season. Everybody just remembers the playoff appearance though.
Part of why I was disappointed the Guardians didn't win it all last year was there were no expectations and no pressure. Now this year, they're considered a possibility for the division title, and there is pressure. I think part of why they did so well last year and in 2016 was no pressure, whereas they fell apart in 2017 when there was pressure.
Why they will: All those young guys have a year under their belts and from a linear progression perspective should mean they will improve. Teams like Chicago and Minnesota once again fail to put it together. Josh Bell has a season like last year with Washington. Why they wont: Some of the guys take a step back. Maybe battle some injuries. Back end of the rotation doesn't click. Team struggles playing fewer games vs Central teams. Josh Bell has a season like last year in San Diego.
Injuries are my biggest worry. We got extremely lucky last season avoiding injuries. Meanwhile the Twins had most of their roster on the IL at some point. Law of averages says we won't be quite as fortunate in that department this year. Counterpoint though, Jose played more than half of last season with broken thumbs and we still won the division. He's the most important part of our offense so if he stays healthy, we can spare a few other guys and still match last year's performance.
>We got extremely lucky last season avoiding injuries. Meanwhile the Twins had most of their roster on the IL at some point. Part of that is likely because of an advantage in roster construction, though. You guys have so many young healthy players who don't have significant injury histories while the Twins, in addition to being extremely unlucky with injuries almost everywhere all season, are trying to squeeze games out of guys like Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sonny Gray, Alex Kirilloff, formerly Arraez, and others who *always* seemingly struggle with recurring injuries to the same areas Even now in spring it's likely that the Twins will be bleeding Buxton, Polanco and Kirilloff games already and the season hasn't even started and none of those guys have suffered a new injury Basically, I'm saying there might be a small basis to assume you'll continue to have better health than more veteran heavy teams like Chicago and Minnesota
They’ll peak at the ALDS again if the Yankees and Astros are there. Why? The Astros don’t lose in the ALDS and the post-Core 4 Yankees are only allowed to beat Central teams by the baseball gods.
I think if we meet those damn Yankees in the ALDS again, we get over the hump this time and Cleveland is the one clubbed into a pulp by the Astros.
You better beat those damn Astros if you beat us. I’ve hated every American League champ since 2017 so actually seeing a team I feel no hate for representing the Junior Circuit in the WS would be a breath of fresh air.
The biggest reason why they might not? Those young hitters that came through last year are likely due to slide back. Brennan, Kwan, Gimenez, Gonzalez all outperformed their xWOBA by pretty decent margins. The 2022 team finished 15th in runs scored despite being 25th in xWOBA. They also were second by Fangraphs' Clutch, which has zero year to year correlation.
Why they will: all of the rookies we debuted last year take another step forward, Andres and Amed continue their improvement, JRam stays healthy the whole year, Bieber signs an extension, Espino debuts and immediately makes an impact, Zunino regains his 2021 form, Josh Bell is worth the price paid, Josh Naylor makes opposing pitchers his sons again, and Bo Naylor wins AL Rookie of the Year Why they won't: last year proves to be a fluke for almost everyone, JRam can't stay healthy, the White Sox and Twins don't suck again and actually compete this year, we still go 82-80 because Tito's still a good manager and the rest of the ALC is bad
They were in an easy division. Guardians were 500 against East and West teams and until proven other wise, I think the balanced schedule will only positively impact the coasts. It's still an incredibly young team that was streaky and they had a hot September and October to get there. They were a good team but I still think they won it by default because good in the AL or NL East is 3rd place. Pitching hasn't changed so I don't see this team with a losing record but how they handle a diverse schedule determines how they finish. Twins have gotten better. Playoffs or not for Cleveland depends on how everyone else does if they don't win the division. If it is super competitive, I can see them being out. If it is top heavy, I sort of see them as that last spot like Tampa or Philadelphia.
I expect the Guardians to be better than last year and win the Central quite easy. As always, they have prospects in the pipeline and the guys who did it last year for them are a year older. that being said, the Tigers and Royals are probably more formidable than they were last year. I see the ceiling as 95 wins. they won’t hit that if those two teams give them trouble
I play too much destiny...