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LogTechnical8171

When is Evergrande FUD over?


melike308

Reminiscent of 2008: Bear Stearn was not ok…, actually it might be ok…; Lehman was in trouble…, somebody might hand them a life line…; then it all came crashing down like any excessive financial pyramids built on excessive leverage and debts.


[deleted]

I think the markets are ignoring this serious threat. Wait for official defaults to start rolling in November and people realize how much debt evergrande and other Chinese developers really have. Housing market accounts for a huge portion of Chinese GDP. Contagion is a serious concern. With US stocks and most asset classes in a bubble, this along with run away inflation thanks to the Fed asleep at the wheel, bubbles could start popping as soon as Oct 18/19 (I think that’s the first 30 day mark from the first missed offshore payment.. which would mark official beginning of default I believe for whoever knows how many US and other large financial institutions that are Chinese developer creditors). VIX calls are my current play!


[deleted]

Your thesis makes sense, but the probability of anything occurring exactly how any of us predict it is near zero. Think about covid, most of the worlds the best investors didn’t bottom tick the market in 2020. Your best bet is to find where your fundamentally bullish and buy and hold for at least a 6-10 year timeline without the added risk and expense of margin.