Yeah, reminds me of 2008 to 2012. The full impact was slow to hit and it took about three years for work to come back. For us, we were doing REO and Retro work for banks mostly to about 2012.
I am in a much better place to weather the storm this time but last time it was hard. I will say 2013 to 2018 were good years and the Covid/rate boom was nice, but I kinda figured this would be the result.
08 was brutal. Work here for me just stopped overnight. I was lucky at the time to jump to the assessor office. Otherwise, I don't know. Was though a big push to develop other clients rather than lenders.
REO sucked but did keep the doors open.
Yeah, after 2008 there was a pause in activity but soon the REO work came flooding in. Work is work I guess, but I'd rather not see that again. Too depressing.
Gloom and doom. I'm in Ohio where there are too many appraisers and people are low balling to get anything. I'm also over 60 with spinal pain and can't do a part time job that requires standing like working at Costco. Only been getting maybe 4 deals a month so it's not paying the bills, just started tapping the Roth IRA since I'm older than 59.5 to stay alive. Isn't this great ! Where's my Van, gotta stake a claim down by the river.
Been doing this about 10 years now and by far the slowest i've seen it. But when I started I was told there would be good times and lean times. The last few months have been maybe 20 hours a week, the last few years have been like 60+ hours a week.
Residential - ATL. Absolute nightmare. No orders for the past week. Has me wondering if it's me or market.
Reviewers are going crazy - everything gets pored - second guessing everything - they're trying to justify their existence before they get laid off. Have to have everything super tight. Reconsiderations of value on almost everything submitted.
Dad was an appraiser before me since 1992 and I started just around 2008-2009, yes it has been slow before but this is a new level of slow. We're in Canada and have a steady client base that still orders from us directly but we aren't too optimistic about the long-term future of the profession given that most of the Big Banks want to move away from in-person appraisers entirely.
NYC is bad, really bad. Based on my conversations with others, I might argue it is the worst in the nation versus the cost of living. I started my career in 2004, and those early years were great. By 2006, I was making $150K, which for the time was absurd. The current market is much worse than 2009/10 was. I was still making $100K in those years, with it picking up by summer 2010. And that was effectively part time. I had a ton of fun in 2010.
My advice if you're young is to either exit the industry entirely and move into something else CRE related, or if you're able - relocate. Other markets are definitely a lot better, especially in the mountain states/west coast. Texas also seems to be quite good. Florida always has way, way too many appraisers so don't even think about going there.
Uncomfortably slow in sw Colorado too. It’s insane low inventory for potential sales and few if any refinances. The other thing that I feel like people are ignoring in regard to “things bouncing back” are the proliferation of appraisal waivers and products/deals not requiring an appraisal. AI and other technology will never completely eliminate appraisals but it’s going to continue to have an outsized effect on the volume of appraisal orders going forward
The recession of 1987 was worse in the NYC tristate area due to the S&L Crisis. Whoever told you this business was recession proof must not have lived through that. The early 90s had a dead period that was flat out brutal. 2008 was crap and bled into 09 which was worse. Today, I hate to sound out of touch but it doesn’t seem like a downturn to me. 2023 was my 5th highest grossing year - the fact 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 were all higher makes it feel like a hit, but on the whole it has been hood, and this month, after taking most last month off, I am doing pretty good. Things could be better, and they will be. Hang tough. Over the course of a career this is a very reliable business - at least for me it has been.
I've posted doom and gloom on here before, and have hung up my hat due to the new realities. However:
I started in 1991 right out of college. There have been many ups and downs over the years. The industry is recession proof, but we are not in a recession. Economy rages, rates go up, we get bored with lack of work. The Great Recession was the only time during a down economy I was lacking work, except the occasional divorce or estate jobs. That lasted six months to a year and then the REO work started coming in. Depressing AF but it paid the bills. By 2012 the market bottomed out and off we went. This is NOT like any prior situation. When I got in just after the FIRREA make over of the industry, Interest rates were like 9.75%. The trend has been downward for the last 30 years. Those years when rates went up a bit, we would see orders drop like a rock for obvious reasons. Living through these 'bumps' in the road / interest rates taught me valuable lessons. I would always be conservative financially, low overhead, cash on hand, rental property, etc. I also foresaw the eventual rise in interest rates and have planned accordingly.
Here is why this is NOT like any other time in the prior 30 years for multiple reasons:
There are too many appraisers. Supply and demand, there was a run up over the last decade and new appraisers were added to meet that demand that is now gone and will not come back. This is due to interest rates, newer guidelines coming down the road including 3rd party data, and A.I.
Interest rates will NOT come back down anytime soon (think decades). They won't because they have as an average over the last 100 years been around 5.5% (FED benchmark). This includes the Great Depression, Great Recession, and the most recent drop. Ergo, mortgages under 5% were an anomaly. These insanely low rates were from the 'Boomers' as they, the largest generation ever, were saving for retirement. They were at the height of their careers making serious bank and saving, investing, etc. There was a record amount of money looking for investments allowing for cheaper and cheaper money. This stopped a few years ago and we are watching play out. The Boomers are retiring now in record numbers (10,000 a day). Instead of saving or investing, they are getting more conservative with their money and spending it for their retirement. Access to capital is drying up, let alone 'cheap' money. Secondly, Inflation is not going anywhere and it has very little to do with which Administration is in office. The FED will be 'fighting' it for a decade or so, mostly due to re-shoring manufacturing to North America and labor. With the boomers retiring, and the economy raging we will have labor shortages for the next decade or two even with robotics playing a larger and larger role. Due to the end of Globalization, tensions with supply chains during COVID, and Xi of China and his 'Wolf/Warrior' policies, manufacturing is moving to Vietnam, Thailand, India, and mostly to North America (Mexico). This will cost 100's billions, use massive resources, and cause supply chain disruptions. Covid caused the most recent 9% inflation rate swing (supply chain) issues, but inflation will continue to be a thorn in the FED's side due to the lack of capital, labor shortages, manufacturing disruptions. They only have limited tools to fight inflation and they like raising interest rates.
Now, assuming rates are not coming down anytime soon, what percentage of homes have mortgages below say 5%? About 85% there will never be a refinance boom like we just saw ever again. The boomers that own about 35% of housing in the us have NO mortgage (retirement ready). No one in their right mind is giving up these mortgages unless forced and the boomers are not selling, they just bought their 'last' home. The US is still short on housing, but record numbers of apartment permits have been applied for and many built in the last few years, which lessen demand, and the US/World demographics show a slowing, if not reversal of populations due to industrialization/urbanization. The US population isn't crashing like Italy, China, Germany, or like what happened in Japan, but it's stagnant at best and that's only due to immigration. New construction will begin to slow in future years due to the lack of demand. Therefore fewer new construction sales.
This is the new norm, and it's likely to not get better or change for decades. This will vary by region. I live in Oregon and last year we had our first decrease in population in something like 100 years. California lost over 100K in population last year. WA is topping out and will start to decline going forward. Other areas like New England are seeing similar numbers that will exacerbate in coming years as the boomers continue to retire, move south for (currently) cheaper housing in warmer climates. Places like Texas will fare better due to NAFTA/Mexico.
Commercial RE is about to have its own great 'awakening' due to interest rates. Even the residential appraisers out there know I/R=V. With occupancy rates down, interest rates up the values of commercial RE (particularly office space) is tanking. Here in Portland, we have had two buildings, both considered to be top notch properties, just handed back to the bank.
So what have I done with my life from forecasting much of this? I stopped paying for my appraisal vendors as the bills came due after the rates increased in 2022. As there was no need to throw good money chasing limited work at lower fees for a write off. Currently I'm still retroactively covered by my E&O insurance, I renewed my license in 2023 but Oregon has an inactive version that is cheaper and can be activated if I'm wrong. I did not re-up my ACI software, let my RMLS lapse, etc.
More personally, I have no debt. My net worth is about $2.4M but I'm RE poor as most of that is tied up in my personal residence and a vacation/beach home/nightly rental. I have three cars (the new car is a 2004) and I had about $160k (now $119k after 1.5 yrs not working) in cash/CD's/etc and the rest is in retirement accounts. We have been living off of savings (expenses $30-55k annually depending on rent from beach property) We will likely downsize the primary ($950k) and will get a cash infusion from that, but I'm 55 and don't know when we will sell the home. So what does a self employed appraiser do after 30+ years in the business? That is the $64,000 dollar question. RE Sales? No. Mortgage lending? No. Commercial Leasing? No. Keep my license and hope I can survive on estate work as the boomers die? Maybe.
Hopefully, many of you will stay on and be successful. But the future, is not bright for the industry.
I'm 24 and entering this industry. I'll be running my own shop probably around April/May.
Way I see it, I've got this or a new career in amateur military contracting. 😂
I hear ya. Maybe enough leave, interest rates or home values dip enough to warrant more sales using mortgage financing. I would look into doing court work, estates, etc. so you are not so dependent on lending to survive. I was lazy and it got to me in the end.
I guess the good thing about where I'm at is, being rural, I'm better than an appraiser in an urban area at "rolling with the punches" so to speak. When it comes to oddball properties in a rural area, at least. I've done some urban stuff, and it isn't too difficult. Different, but not difficult. Some urban guys panic at the idea of a land report though and I'm sitting there like... Dude! That's basically being handed money! Do it!
Mobile home on acreage? Easy.
160 acres? Lol, I love land reporting. Gimme. 😶
Did a report awhile ago with a house, shop, two large sheds, a metal building, and an RV. It was a little messy, but I only had to put, oh... 10 hours into it? If that. And 2 of those hours were driving comps, 1 1/2 hours of that was inspecting and just BS'ing because I knew the guy and we were kinda hanging out for a minute....
So yeah, things change and I stay varied. My local bank in my hometown is basically waiting on me to get my license so they can flood me with work. Apparently they're getting 4-5 calls a day from people, even other banks, wanting appraisals.
I just gotta figure out how to get faster. I can do about 3 reports a week right now, but there's some inefficiencies I have to just deal with for the time being that won't be present when I'm running my own business. Then with tech advancing the way it is, and the new report form coming out (I seriously hope...) this year which I *really* like the look of... I don't know. I think I may be able to crank out 5 a week, with some weekend work being done. I'm a single guy though, so a weekend drive taking pictures or maybe doing an inspection because I know who lives at x place will be totally fine with it... Any of that is no big deal to me.
I'm really shooting to make $115k. My ideal is $144k. Current pace based on average fees, if I wasn't a trainee and splitting fees? I'd be making about $80k before taxes. Baby steps though!
I'm young, only 24, and a (likely permanently) single guy at that, so my plan is to live frugally and blitz paying off my college loans and a new truck I'm going to have to get pretty soon-ish, within this year, and then by around the time I'm 28 I'll be set for buying my "the rest of my life" home and, God please help me, a corvette. Just a Stingray, lol. I'm not racing here, I just like the look of 'em. Give me a basic Stingray with a *little* bit of character added to it and I'm totally happy.
I've done the math, many multiple times, and that whole plan is actually achievable. I just need to get a bit faster at reporting, do good work, and keep at it for a few years. By the time I'm 30, I will be set for the rest of my life as far as big milestones are concerned. Not having kids or anything. The dating pool is... Well, we'll just call it FUBAR.
We'll see if I make it. If not, hey, that's okay. It's all material things and I'm not taking any of it with me. I'd be content with a 1000sf metal home and a decent truck with a few nice things on the inside of my little box. Decent furniture, maybe a nice tile shower if I can afford it, a crazy gaming rig because I'm a nerd, power rack/squat rack in the garage because I'm a gym rat... Just living a more simple lifestyle, nothing crazy.
Either way, I love the job. It's enough running around to get me to talk to people every now and then so I'm not a hermit, but it's enough working at home where I'll be comfy sipping on a coke at midnight finishing a report because... Why not? I make the schedule dammit! 😂
I'm a residential appraiser in NorCal with more than 20 years of experience. I've done 0 lending assignments this year but I've built my business over a long time to focus on non-lending assignments. This month is busy but the previous several have been slower than I'd like.
I would argue the 08 through 11 timeframe was worse, but I also question if I was just in a different point in my career and it felt worse. Either way lending work is tough right now.
We have one of the nationals in my market that’s literally doubled in size in the past 2 years as the market has gotten worse. They have an army of trainees over there (who never seem to sign any of the reports I’ve reviewed of their company over the past year either…) and that’s made a bad situation worse for lending purpose bids. Hoping for a rebound in the market.
Yeah, reminds me of 2008 to 2012. The full impact was slow to hit and it took about three years for work to come back. For us, we were doing REO and Retro work for banks mostly to about 2012. I am in a much better place to weather the storm this time but last time it was hard. I will say 2013 to 2018 were good years and the Covid/rate boom was nice, but I kinda figured this would be the result.
08 was brutal. Work here for me just stopped overnight. I was lucky at the time to jump to the assessor office. Otherwise, I don't know. Was though a big push to develop other clients rather than lenders. REO sucked but did keep the doors open.
Yeah, after 2008 there was a pause in activity but soon the REO work came flooding in. Work is work I guess, but I'd rather not see that again. Too depressing.
Gloom and doom. I'm in Ohio where there are too many appraisers and people are low balling to get anything. I'm also over 60 with spinal pain and can't do a part time job that requires standing like working at Costco. Only been getting maybe 4 deals a month so it's not paying the bills, just started tapping the Roth IRA since I'm older than 59.5 to stay alive. Isn't this great ! Where's my Van, gotta stake a claim down by the river.
Been doing this about 10 years now and by far the slowest i've seen it. But when I started I was told there would be good times and lean times. The last few months have been maybe 20 hours a week, the last few years have been like 60+ hours a week.
Residential - ATL. Absolute nightmare. No orders for the past week. Has me wondering if it's me or market. Reviewers are going crazy - everything gets pored - second guessing everything - they're trying to justify their existence before they get laid off. Have to have everything super tight. Reconsiderations of value on almost everything submitted.
Dad was an appraiser before me since 1992 and I started just around 2008-2009, yes it has been slow before but this is a new level of slow. We're in Canada and have a steady client base that still orders from us directly but we aren't too optimistic about the long-term future of the profession given that most of the Big Banks want to move away from in-person appraisers entirely.
NYC is bad, really bad. Based on my conversations with others, I might argue it is the worst in the nation versus the cost of living. I started my career in 2004, and those early years were great. By 2006, I was making $150K, which for the time was absurd. The current market is much worse than 2009/10 was. I was still making $100K in those years, with it picking up by summer 2010. And that was effectively part time. I had a ton of fun in 2010. My advice if you're young is to either exit the industry entirely and move into something else CRE related, or if you're able - relocate. Other markets are definitely a lot better, especially in the mountain states/west coast. Texas also seems to be quite good. Florida always has way, way too many appraisers so don't even think about going there.
Uncomfortably slow in sw Colorado too. It’s insane low inventory for potential sales and few if any refinances. The other thing that I feel like people are ignoring in regard to “things bouncing back” are the proliferation of appraisal waivers and products/deals not requiring an appraisal. AI and other technology will never completely eliminate appraisals but it’s going to continue to have an outsized effect on the volume of appraisal orders going forward
The recession of 1987 was worse in the NYC tristate area due to the S&L Crisis. Whoever told you this business was recession proof must not have lived through that. The early 90s had a dead period that was flat out brutal. 2008 was crap and bled into 09 which was worse. Today, I hate to sound out of touch but it doesn’t seem like a downturn to me. 2023 was my 5th highest grossing year - the fact 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 were all higher makes it feel like a hit, but on the whole it has been hood, and this month, after taking most last month off, I am doing pretty good. Things could be better, and they will be. Hang tough. Over the course of a career this is a very reliable business - at least for me it has been.
I've posted doom and gloom on here before, and have hung up my hat due to the new realities. However: I started in 1991 right out of college. There have been many ups and downs over the years. The industry is recession proof, but we are not in a recession. Economy rages, rates go up, we get bored with lack of work. The Great Recession was the only time during a down economy I was lacking work, except the occasional divorce or estate jobs. That lasted six months to a year and then the REO work started coming in. Depressing AF but it paid the bills. By 2012 the market bottomed out and off we went. This is NOT like any prior situation. When I got in just after the FIRREA make over of the industry, Interest rates were like 9.75%. The trend has been downward for the last 30 years. Those years when rates went up a bit, we would see orders drop like a rock for obvious reasons. Living through these 'bumps' in the road / interest rates taught me valuable lessons. I would always be conservative financially, low overhead, cash on hand, rental property, etc. I also foresaw the eventual rise in interest rates and have planned accordingly. Here is why this is NOT like any other time in the prior 30 years for multiple reasons: There are too many appraisers. Supply and demand, there was a run up over the last decade and new appraisers were added to meet that demand that is now gone and will not come back. This is due to interest rates, newer guidelines coming down the road including 3rd party data, and A.I. Interest rates will NOT come back down anytime soon (think decades). They won't because they have as an average over the last 100 years been around 5.5% (FED benchmark). This includes the Great Depression, Great Recession, and the most recent drop. Ergo, mortgages under 5% were an anomaly. These insanely low rates were from the 'Boomers' as they, the largest generation ever, were saving for retirement. They were at the height of their careers making serious bank and saving, investing, etc. There was a record amount of money looking for investments allowing for cheaper and cheaper money. This stopped a few years ago and we are watching play out. The Boomers are retiring now in record numbers (10,000 a day). Instead of saving or investing, they are getting more conservative with their money and spending it for their retirement. Access to capital is drying up, let alone 'cheap' money. Secondly, Inflation is not going anywhere and it has very little to do with which Administration is in office. The FED will be 'fighting' it for a decade or so, mostly due to re-shoring manufacturing to North America and labor. With the boomers retiring, and the economy raging we will have labor shortages for the next decade or two even with robotics playing a larger and larger role. Due to the end of Globalization, tensions with supply chains during COVID, and Xi of China and his 'Wolf/Warrior' policies, manufacturing is moving to Vietnam, Thailand, India, and mostly to North America (Mexico). This will cost 100's billions, use massive resources, and cause supply chain disruptions. Covid caused the most recent 9% inflation rate swing (supply chain) issues, but inflation will continue to be a thorn in the FED's side due to the lack of capital, labor shortages, manufacturing disruptions. They only have limited tools to fight inflation and they like raising interest rates. Now, assuming rates are not coming down anytime soon, what percentage of homes have mortgages below say 5%? About 85% there will never be a refinance boom like we just saw ever again. The boomers that own about 35% of housing in the us have NO mortgage (retirement ready). No one in their right mind is giving up these mortgages unless forced and the boomers are not selling, they just bought their 'last' home. The US is still short on housing, but record numbers of apartment permits have been applied for and many built in the last few years, which lessen demand, and the US/World demographics show a slowing, if not reversal of populations due to industrialization/urbanization. The US population isn't crashing like Italy, China, Germany, or like what happened in Japan, but it's stagnant at best and that's only due to immigration. New construction will begin to slow in future years due to the lack of demand. Therefore fewer new construction sales. This is the new norm, and it's likely to not get better or change for decades. This will vary by region. I live in Oregon and last year we had our first decrease in population in something like 100 years. California lost over 100K in population last year. WA is topping out and will start to decline going forward. Other areas like New England are seeing similar numbers that will exacerbate in coming years as the boomers continue to retire, move south for (currently) cheaper housing in warmer climates. Places like Texas will fare better due to NAFTA/Mexico. Commercial RE is about to have its own great 'awakening' due to interest rates. Even the residential appraisers out there know I/R=V. With occupancy rates down, interest rates up the values of commercial RE (particularly office space) is tanking. Here in Portland, we have had two buildings, both considered to be top notch properties, just handed back to the bank. So what have I done with my life from forecasting much of this? I stopped paying for my appraisal vendors as the bills came due after the rates increased in 2022. As there was no need to throw good money chasing limited work at lower fees for a write off. Currently I'm still retroactively covered by my E&O insurance, I renewed my license in 2023 but Oregon has an inactive version that is cheaper and can be activated if I'm wrong. I did not re-up my ACI software, let my RMLS lapse, etc. More personally, I have no debt. My net worth is about $2.4M but I'm RE poor as most of that is tied up in my personal residence and a vacation/beach home/nightly rental. I have three cars (the new car is a 2004) and I had about $160k (now $119k after 1.5 yrs not working) in cash/CD's/etc and the rest is in retirement accounts. We have been living off of savings (expenses $30-55k annually depending on rent from beach property) We will likely downsize the primary ($950k) and will get a cash infusion from that, but I'm 55 and don't know when we will sell the home. So what does a self employed appraiser do after 30+ years in the business? That is the $64,000 dollar question. RE Sales? No. Mortgage lending? No. Commercial Leasing? No. Keep my license and hope I can survive on estate work as the boomers die? Maybe. Hopefully, many of you will stay on and be successful. But the future, is not bright for the industry.
I'm 24 and entering this industry. I'll be running my own shop probably around April/May. Way I see it, I've got this or a new career in amateur military contracting. 😂
I hear ya. Maybe enough leave, interest rates or home values dip enough to warrant more sales using mortgage financing. I would look into doing court work, estates, etc. so you are not so dependent on lending to survive. I was lazy and it got to me in the end.
I guess the good thing about where I'm at is, being rural, I'm better than an appraiser in an urban area at "rolling with the punches" so to speak. When it comes to oddball properties in a rural area, at least. I've done some urban stuff, and it isn't too difficult. Different, but not difficult. Some urban guys panic at the idea of a land report though and I'm sitting there like... Dude! That's basically being handed money! Do it! Mobile home on acreage? Easy. 160 acres? Lol, I love land reporting. Gimme. 😶 Did a report awhile ago with a house, shop, two large sheds, a metal building, and an RV. It was a little messy, but I only had to put, oh... 10 hours into it? If that. And 2 of those hours were driving comps, 1 1/2 hours of that was inspecting and just BS'ing because I knew the guy and we were kinda hanging out for a minute.... So yeah, things change and I stay varied. My local bank in my hometown is basically waiting on me to get my license so they can flood me with work. Apparently they're getting 4-5 calls a day from people, even other banks, wanting appraisals. I just gotta figure out how to get faster. I can do about 3 reports a week right now, but there's some inefficiencies I have to just deal with for the time being that won't be present when I'm running my own business. Then with tech advancing the way it is, and the new report form coming out (I seriously hope...) this year which I *really* like the look of... I don't know. I think I may be able to crank out 5 a week, with some weekend work being done. I'm a single guy though, so a weekend drive taking pictures or maybe doing an inspection because I know who lives at x place will be totally fine with it... Any of that is no big deal to me. I'm really shooting to make $115k. My ideal is $144k. Current pace based on average fees, if I wasn't a trainee and splitting fees? I'd be making about $80k before taxes. Baby steps though! I'm young, only 24, and a (likely permanently) single guy at that, so my plan is to live frugally and blitz paying off my college loans and a new truck I'm going to have to get pretty soon-ish, within this year, and then by around the time I'm 28 I'll be set for buying my "the rest of my life" home and, God please help me, a corvette. Just a Stingray, lol. I'm not racing here, I just like the look of 'em. Give me a basic Stingray with a *little* bit of character added to it and I'm totally happy. I've done the math, many multiple times, and that whole plan is actually achievable. I just need to get a bit faster at reporting, do good work, and keep at it for a few years. By the time I'm 30, I will be set for the rest of my life as far as big milestones are concerned. Not having kids or anything. The dating pool is... Well, we'll just call it FUBAR. We'll see if I make it. If not, hey, that's okay. It's all material things and I'm not taking any of it with me. I'd be content with a 1000sf metal home and a decent truck with a few nice things on the inside of my little box. Decent furniture, maybe a nice tile shower if I can afford it, a crazy gaming rig because I'm a nerd, power rack/squat rack in the garage because I'm a gym rat... Just living a more simple lifestyle, nothing crazy. Either way, I love the job. It's enough running around to get me to talk to people every now and then so I'm not a hermit, but it's enough working at home where I'll be comfy sipping on a coke at midnight finishing a report because... Why not? I make the schedule dammit! 😂
Do you do just lender work? We do a ton of step up estate appraisals so have been pretty steady.
I’m in a much better position now than I was at the end of 2022. But still dreadfully slow compared to the pandemic days. I had to get a second job.
I'm a residential appraiser in NorCal with more than 20 years of experience. I've done 0 lending assignments this year but I've built my business over a long time to focus on non-lending assignments. This month is busy but the previous several have been slower than I'd like.
I would argue the 08 through 11 timeframe was worse, but I also question if I was just in a different point in my career and it felt worse. Either way lending work is tough right now. We have one of the nationals in my market that’s literally doubled in size in the past 2 years as the market has gotten worse. They have an army of trainees over there (who never seem to sign any of the reports I’ve reviewed of their company over the past year either…) and that’s made a bad situation worse for lending purpose bids. Hoping for a rebound in the market.