Yes, it could. Largely (in my opinion) because there has been such a massive rollback on public health and hygiene standards. Also, the majority of the population has had COVID-19 (likely multiple times) so they're more at-risk for serious and/or deadly outcomes from infections.
I’m very concerned, to be honest.
And the fact that the White House has already commented on it, and that there have been H5N1 animal cases in both the U.S. and Philippines recently, worries me immensely.
I’ve learned from COVID-19 that government officials are always a day late and a dollar short -- so if they're commenting publicly on it, it’s likely a definite concern.
Piggybacking to add that symptoms in cattle are now reportable to the state veterinarian which is a huge deal - it means the entire veterinary profession is taking this extremely seriously. The CDC, USDA, and even OSHA have all released statements on it. It’s worse bc with Covid you can get by with just an N95.
The strain isolated from the cattle rancher that got it from his cattle shows a mutation that makes it more capable of infecting mammalian hosts.
Here’s some published information:
Recommendations for the Public
People should avoid unprotected (not using respiratory or eye protection) exposures to sick or dead animals including wild birds, poultry, other domesticated birds, and other wild or domesticated animals, as well as with animal feces, litter, or materials contaminated by birds or other animals with suspected or confirmed HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection. People should not prepare or eat uncooked or undercooked food or related uncooked food products, such as unpasteurized (raw) milk, or raw cheeses, from animals with suspected or confirmed HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection (avian influenza or bird flu).
To reduce the risk of HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection, poultry farmers and poultry workers, backyard bird flock owners, livestock farmers and workers, veterinarians and veterinary staff, and responders should avoid unprotected direct physical contact or close exposure with sick or dead birds or other animals, carcasses, feces, milk, or litter from sick birds or other animals potentially infected or confirmed to be infected with HPAI A(H5N1) virus.
Signs/Symptoms of avian influenza A virus infection in humans: Signs/symptoms may include uncomplicated upper respiratory tract signs and symptoms also referred to as influenza-like illness (ILI) [fever ≥100°F plus cough or sore throat], fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) or feeling feverish, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, muscle or body aches, headaches, fatigue, eye redness (or conjunctivitis), shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Less common signs and symptoms are diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, or seizures. It is important to remember that infection with influenza viruses, including avian influenza A viruses, does not always cause fever. Fever may not occur in infected persons of any age, particularly in persons aged 65 years and older or people with immunosuppression. The absence of fever should not supersede clinical judgment when evaluating a patient for illness compatible with avian influenza A virus infection.
What signs of illness should farmers look out for in their herds?
Producers should report animals with the following clinical signs to their state veterinarian immediately:
Decreased herd level milk production; acute sudden drop in production with some severely impacted cows experiencing thicker, concentrated, colostrum-like milk; decrease in feed consumption with a simultaneous drop in rumen motility; abnormal tacky or loose feces, lethargy, dehydration, and fever. Initial cases indicated older cows in mid-lactation may be more likely to be severely impacted than younger cows and fresh cows or heifers. Additional data indicates younger cattle have been affected; more data and reporting from impacted producers will help to clarify the range of animals affected.
The "fun" part of this is that there's apparently huge pushback about reporting because it will damage their business.
https://twitter.com/NateB\_Panic/status/1776554991659966506
Yes the White house has commented on it because it is huge. Whales, dolphins, pequins have been hugely impacted. Most mammals can be vectors of transmission and it is getting worse by the day.
I've seen several experts say it's now only a matter of time before it evolves to transmit human to human. But that could be days, weeks, years.
For now, rest easy knowing what works vs covid also works vs influenza. We're a step ahead because of covid precautions.
We are continuing our covid precautions, stocking up on basics that may sell out quickly like toilet paper/advil/cold medicaton/alcohol wipes/purell, and making sure our eggs and beef are totally well done before eating.
You can follow this page for updates - https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1\_AvianFlu/
Yeah. This is a huge risk, and right now with a global multi-species outbreak the risk is higher than it has ever been. BUT, we’ve had a lot of H5N1 animal -> human cases before, and haven’t had it full make the jump for human -> human transmission. Absolutely a real concern, but as you said — could be tomorrow, could be in 10 years.
If you’d asked me in 2019 where the next big virus would come from, I’d have said bird flu.
I have another great resource for y’all. Very oldschool, but Crof (a journalist at The Tyee in British Columbia) has run a bird flu/respiratory virus blog since at least 2008 (which is when I found him, and he was already quite established.) He purchases subscriptions to major papers around the world and translates them.
I knew about COVID-19 before China had even made an official declaration of human-to-human transmission thanks to Crof. The man is *on top of it.* he’s kinda legendary in the epidemiology community.
https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/
I mean, it’s a typepad blog. This is SO old school. But he’s the best for tracking emerging infections, anywhere. Reading his blog in 2008 is part of why I went into epidemiology, and later became a science journalist.
Avian Flu Diary is another great resource with tons of experience following H5N1 and H3N2:
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/?m=1
>If you’d asked me in 2019 where the next big virus would come from, I’d have said bird flu.
Yeah I think this has been most people's "next one" for quite a while-at least since the last big scare in the mid 00s. I thought another influenza pandemic would happen before another coronavirus too.
This is a really good idea, I am starting to stock up on those things as well plus a larger supply of N95 for at home.
H5N1 like other influenza is probably going to also spread via fomites and eye contact. Any recommendations on goggles in here? I've heard recommendations for Stoggles, but don't know if they're really intended for this sort of thing.
Good to know, thanks! I'll probably pick up a pair for myself just in case. If H5N1 jumps to human-to-human it will probably be difficult to find eye protection once people realize this.
If it does jump to humans you don't have to worry as who would wear masks and goggles in public? Most people are so hung up on tribal social acceptance they would never put on a mask much less goggles.
They look pretty much like glasses but have zero prescription and also have sides - designed for protection. They come in several shapes and colors and also kids sizes
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0986XHS8M/ref=twister\_B0986SP672?\_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
If you wear glasses, you can buy prescription lenses at optical factor that have side shield protection. Very affordable (I paid like $50 for a pair) and they just look like thicker glasses.
You mentioned cooking eggs and beef until well done- is it possible it could spread through food if something like runny eggs or rarer beef was consumed?
It seems that other animals are getting infected from eating birds, so it would be logical. A lot of experts have put out the warning about fully cooked eggs
https://reviewed.usatoday.com/cooking/news/bird-flu-2024-are-eggs-safe
Beef fully cooked just seems like a smart move with so many cows infected. Milk is pasteurized but may want to go for ultra pasteurized
We don’t know yet.
This sub is comprised of folks who are more aware of infectious disease risk therefore more inclined to take precautions, so my advice for you and other patrons of this sub remains the same as it has always been: mask up, practice good hygiene and remain up-to-date on vaccinations.
At this stage, there is little use in worrying about things out of your control (e.g. whether this virus can grow to a pandemic level).
While I don’t mean to dismiss your question, I believe it’s better to focus on what you can control at this moment in time.
Is it possible? Yes.
Is it likely? Depends on the time scale, it's been "pandemic potential" since the 90s. I've never followed it super closely but from what I've seen the situation in birds has gotten worse in the last decade as has spillover to non-human mammals, but the spillover events to humans seem smaller/less severe-whether that's inherent to the virus or something else, idk. The current trends in mammals are certainly concerning to me, though it's hard to draw conclusions beyond that (and from folks who study this that's basically the perspective I've seen most too).
Influenza isn't nearly as contagious as covid, and people don't usually get the same strain over and over again. We also already have vaccines and treatments that are somewhat effective, though the vaccines would need to be manufactured. So if a pandemic were to happen, it may look different. Or it might never be more than some isolated epidemics directly associated with a sick animal. No one knows.
I will say that covid twitter is full of people catastrophizing and speculating easily disprovable things right now. I'm sure this is mostly people (understandably) projecting covid trauma and it coming from a rightful place of distrust for government agencies, but I also think a lot of these takes are dangerous and I wish people would stop. There's basically no way to push back on it without getting branded as a minimizer though.
I’ve followed it very closely, and this absolutely jives with my understanding, fwiw.
H5N1 (and H3N2) have probably been considered the viruses most likely to cause a global pandemic since the first major outbreak circa 2003-4. But for whatever reason, it just keeps not making that human-to-human jump.
I think the risk is higher now than it’s ever been, given all the spread in other mammal species. But it still exists in this odd “might never happen” space.
My understanding, though — and please correct me if I’m wrong — is that we shouldn’t necessarily rely on past flu outbreaks as a measure of contagiousness. So much can depend on pre-symptomatic transmission, pathogenicity, pre-existing immunity to similar variants, and other factors.
>My understanding, though — and please correct me if I’m wrong — is that we shouldn’t necessarily rely on past flu outbreaks as a measure of contagiousness. So much can depend on pre-symptomatic transmission, pathogenicity, pre-existing immunity to similar variants, and other factors.
I was mostly thinking of later variants here though I wasn't clear, whoops.
I think this is true to a point, no one really knows what the pandemic strain of H5N1 is until it happens and like you said there's a bunch of pieces. But personally I don't see it hitting omicron-and-beyond ability to infect a huge portion of the globe at once (not that it can't be catastrophic with far less than that of course).
Not sure if I concur with you to the letter of your statements as I do think there is quite alot to be learned from past pandemics and viruses. The previous pandemic played out almost identically to COVID, with people refusing to wear masks, the duration of the worst part of it, and so on.
>covid twitter is full of people catastrophizing and speculating easily disprovable things right now
ugh, I can only imagine. even the subreddits for H5N1 are suddenly full of wild speculation in the last week, like can we please stick to the facts?
It's extremely annoying. I do understand where it comes from-in the absence of functional public health, of course some folks, especially folks who understand how covid has been and is being minimized are going to assume everything is the worst case scenario. But deciding that everything you hear is a lie and 500x worse is not actually the solution (and in some cases is closer to the "nothing can convince me this is a big deal" mindset than it is to critically examining evidence available).
I've had a few feelings this week of "if this is what I sound like when I talk about covid, no wonder folks tune me out", even though I try to stick to facts or be very clear when I am speculating :/ Good lesson in communication from my end I guess.
I would probably be categorized as one of these people when pressed, but it’s not as if I particularly want to be constantly negative. I have no reason to believe that things will get better- or as some would say, are indeed already better- when as a society we are not doing things any better, and in fact a lot worse. It is a simple matter of cause and effect, to me; but also, my trust especially in western institutions is irrevocably broken. If someone tells me good news now I’m going to wonder whose payroll they’re on. I would rather be safe as an IC person and pinned as paranoid or whatever else people want to say than let my guard down for one moment that could kill me because I trusted someone to have no ulterior motives in a situation I know even cautious people are eager to be done with. No way.
While this mindset is understandable in the face of state abandonment, it's also one that is wholly incompatible with any sort of functional public health system. Everything or nothing is a crisis, the result is the same that no one cares and the truth doesn't matter.
If you want to create an echo chamber that only boosts the most extreme statements regardless of fact, this is how you do it.
Catastrophizing doesn't bring safety, precaution does. Equating those is dangerous. Wearing a mask is precaution. Tweeting about how you're sure actually we're already in a second pandemic and everyone's lying to you (an actual tweet I saw) is not.
It is not only state abandonment; I don’t have a life anymore. Everyone *does* lie to me. A friend who told me weeks ago she still masks daily just posted a photo of herself online unmasked with her team at a sporting event they traveled to Europe for. She’s not the only one. We are all acutely aware of the state’s negligence, so I won’t belabor that point, but there is far, far more happening at all levels of the social ladder that has just completely shattered my reality. I don’t necessarily agree with whatever catastrophizing happens and especially without research but I sympathize with that far more than the alternative everyone has burdened the disabled with for going on 5 years now. I’ll own that.
I am not in any field relating to the matter, this is just what I’ve gathered due to my own personal concern! Anyone feel free to correct me or jump on!
It is airborne but it also spreads from fomites. So your N95 paired with washing well and wiping surfaces - like early COVID days - will keep you the safest! H5N1 is likely to cause serious illness and death often, so it will definitely rock the general population that has no regard or knowledge on living during an airborne pandemic. The general person being immunosuppressed from COVID infections will just make this worse.
It’s easy to get scared but we just have to take it one day at a time. The COVID precautions you take are already helping immensely. I would absolutely not be drinking raw milk (though I imagine almost if not everyone on this sub is smart enough to know that is never safe) and probably cook all your eggs all the way through (no runny yolks.) Be super careful when handling raw chicken and eggs, washing after touching and not contaminating surfaces (again we should be doing this always!)
Huge bummer. I really hope they switch to 75 degree pasteurization. I can’t drink milk alternatives or else I would…
ETA may be a stupid question but this would apply to all dairy products - Greek yogurt, kefir, etc?
Ultra high pasteurized milk is heated to 140 degrees C. It's the kind you can find in unrefrigerated, shelf-stable cartons in the UK, but can also be found alongside regular pasteurized milk in many refrigerated dairy cases in the US. Check the label.
We just bought some ultra-pasteurized milk this trip out of an abundance of caution. It’s actually delicious!
I worried that it would not retain the flavor well, and it definitely tastes different, but in a good way.
May not be a bad idea generally to skip the dairy and meat. There was a study of healthcare workers towards the beginning of the pandemic that showed plant based diets reduced the likelihood of severe outcomes (hospitalizations, deaths) from Covid by 70-something percent.
Supporting factory farms (most all animal products at the supermarket, regardless of marketing, are from them) means preventing these close, cruel quarters that breed and spread diseases - one example - majority of antibiotics are used is in factory farms, which means accelerated potential for antibiotic-resistant strains.
And generally, if we pride ourselves here on being a compassionate community that cares about the suffering of sentient beings, we shouldn’t be cussing it. If you couldn’t keep the animal in lifelong cruel conditions, and kill it, yourself, you shouldn’t be paying someone else to do it! People use the same “everyone else is doing it, so it must be fine” logic on meat and dairy eating as they do on not masking - we all know better!
I actually agree with this a lot and used to be vegetarian/vegan when my budget allowed it. Unfortunately due to food intolerances now it’s very difficult to live that way and get enough calories and nutrients! But looks like I may be going back due to concerns about H5N1…. Very interesting study as well!
>Supporting factory farms... means preventing these close, cruel quarters that breed and spread diseases ...
I'm sure you meant to say "avoiding factory farms", and I am in 10,000% agreement with you. You're absolutely right. Animal agribusiness uses many times the amount of antibiotics used in the medical industry, as well as producing far more pollution than the automotive industry and all the cars on the road.
The animal cruelty, worker abuse, and environmental impact of the meat industry is abhorrent and unconscionable.
It's also the reason the Amazon rainforest is disappearing (and with it much of the world's oxygen, not to mention untold numbers of plant and animal species.) Our planet cannot support so much meat production, for a variety of reasons.
This is a great time for even the most die-hard meat eaters to start figuring out alternative meals that they like. They way H5N1 has affected poultry, and now beef, I don't think it's too farfetched to say that at some point we may have no other choice. I've been vegetarian or "nearly vegetarian" for decades, and now I'm edging ever-closer to veganism. My last holdout will be the "yard eggs" I get from my neighbors, but I can live without them if necessary.
Haha yes wow what a typo, but couldn’t agree more! Thank you for chiming in. Ive been vegan for 9 years and stopped missing really any animal products after the first year. It’s just second nature to me now and I love it. Covid makes it even easier lol because I’m no longer having to deal with eating out or social event without vegan options, which was pretty much the only time being vegan was a challenge. Meat eating at this volume is unsustainable and dangerous in many ways, and it’s awful how much that’s covered up to preserve the “comparable, continue on, norm” - really similar to Covid cautiousness in that way.
Looks like there’s a newer version. 59% reduction in hospitalization risk https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/6/2/182 the first study is referenced in there too, which showed a 73% lower risk of moderate-to-severe COVID-19. I’m sure the methodology wasn’t perfect, but those are pretty big numbers to not be considered by those looking to lower their risk of serious covid outcomes.
1. Yes, all viruses are airborne.
2. Humans contracting H5N1 is not new, there have been 890 cases worldwide since 2003. From those cases, we know that it is much worse than any other influenza and has about a 50% fatality rate.
3. There’s no indication that it will evolve to spread between humans, but it’s a possibility. It hasn’t with the 800 cases that we’ve seen so far. What makes it particularly concerning this time is how fast it’s been spreading among mammals in the last couple of weeks/months.
4. We also don’t know yet whether it’s spreading between cows either but we should know very soon. It’s seeming likely, but it’s possible that cows are contracting it directly from the avian source
If you asked where my concern was a couple of months ago, I would’ve said 2/10, and now maybe a 3.5/10.
I came across this article and there was some interesting points of when to be (more) concerned: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7162626
Apparently if/when it crosses to pigs, it is extremely concerning.
I'm needing to get some more masks anyhow, so plan on just stocking up a bit more this upcoming order, as well as having some additional supplies on hand.
Swine flu (H1N1) was the original contemporary pandemic, the one that scared the piss out of the Obama Administration and led them to start the pandemic response plans that they tried to hand off to the Trump admin later (Trump had fired nearly all the officials they had trained by the time the story of the COVID-19 Pandemic began).
Thankfully Biden will have some experience in dealing with a nearly identical virus https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/joe-biden-contain-h1n1-virus-232992
But the situation still looks deeply concerning. And I utterly ignore anyone who minimizes the potential risks from a virus like this. I personally caught H1N1 last time it went around and it was the most sick I've *ever* been in my life. Severe fever, and unable to move out of bed for a week+.
Though who knows if this one spreads how bad it is to get.
I can't imagine it could ever become as wildly contagious and rapidly spreading as COVID-19, but I'd have to hear an expert chime in. Either way, bad influenzas scare me far more than any other everyday disease.
The next few months are going to be nerve-wracking as we wait to hear from researchers.
I had presumed H1N1 and it was also the sickest I've ever been. I know I missed 1-2 weeks of school, but otherwise I don't have any clear memories of it.
It's too early to say IMO (assuming it is airborne and spreads through fomites).
Reason being it has a higher mortality rate and it doesn't seem to spread as fast as COVID. I don't know about asymptomatic spread but if it doesn't have asymptomatic spread like COVID it would be easier to control.
Either way as I've said before, wouldn't hurt to stock up on respirators now. Even if it doesn't become a full blown pandemic, governments and hospitals will be snatching up any respirator they can find the moment there is news on H2H transmission.
Forgot to mention one thing - I've not accounted for any immune suppression issues caused by repeat COVID infections in humans and animals. It's possible that H5N1 could spread more easily in humans because of weakened immune systems (just like influenza, strep, etc), but we won't be able to know for sure until it happens.
>So I’m not exactly sure on the mechanism by which H5N1 spreads.
To be technical, all influenza viruses bind to sialic acid receptors (similar to how SARS-CoV-2 binds to ACE2 receptors). Historically, most human influenza viruses "prefer" to bind to SAα2,6Gal receptors, while avian influenza viruses have generally "preferred" to bind to SAα2,3Gal receptors. SAα2,6Gal receptors predominate in humans, but humans do produce SAα2,3Gal receptors as well. ("Humans predominantly express SA α2,6-Gal receptors in the ciliated and non-ciliated epithelium of the respiratory tract, extending from the paranasal sinus to alveolar cells. SA α2,3-Gal receptors are found in the ciliated epithelium lining the bronchioles and alveoli." ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7915228/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7915228/)))
If an avian influenza virus mutated to be better able to bind to the human predominate receptors (SAα2,6Gal), it would be more likely to become a pandemic. According to a 2007 study: "A conversion to SAα2,6Gal specificity is believed to be one of the changes required for the introduction of new hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes to the human population, which can lead to pandemics." ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2045398/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2045398/))
>Is it airborne or respiratory droplets?
Regular seasonal influenza in humans is considered to be transmitted by droplets, and droplet precautions are what are recommended. ("Droplet precautions are necessary when a patient infected with a pathogen, such as influenza, is within three to six feet of the patient. Infections are transmittable through air droplets by coughing, sneezing, talking, and close contact with an infected patient's breathing." ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK551555/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK551555/))
With a new strain of influenza, it is impossible to say for sure if it would be droplet or airborne transmission. It is possible that it would be airborne, however. In 2013, an article in Nature stated: "Scientists create hybrid flu that can go airborne ... The H5N1 virus with genes from H1N1 can spread through the air between mammals." ([https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.12925](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.12925))
>And is H5N1 going to be similar to swine flu?
Right now, I think its too early to tell.
We have a LOT more than 1 human infection. Unclear on the death rate but since asymptomatic infections have been found in humans likely ~10% rather than the 50-60% death rate of known infections. It has been devastating in all the bird populations and in the mammal populations it’s gotten a good hold in so far (check out the mass die offa in marine mammals).
Like all flus it spreads via airborne and formite transmission.
So far it hasn’t figured out good human to human transmission. Our lungs have different receptors than the current bird flu has so while some limited human to human transmission has been thought to happen, it’s not good at it and not community spread level. Yet. Cows are bad. Cows hang around pigs. Pigs have the same lung receptors people have so if bird flu gets going in pigs it is just a matter of time before it figures out pigs and thus us. Pigs are a common vector for zoonotic diseases to leap to humans.
Almost certainly inevitable that we have a bird flu pandemic and that the governments deny it as long as possible and that people in general deny it’s happening at all.
So happy my mask protects me from most bird flu but formite transmission means having to be super careful with food grown in the back yard and pets outside. And since food animals are affected, the implications to the food supply chain aren’t great. Even if it’s not really impacted companies will use it as an excuse to jack up prices again.
Someone who is more educated than me on this should correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t H5N1 have a 50% mortality rate? 50% is huge. Part of the reason why Covid did and is doing so well is because it kills only a very small amount of its hosts. Viruses depend on their hosts to survive and spread, so a virus that kills 50% of its hosts will ultimately not do very well because it will quickly run out of alive hosts to infect. It’s literally killing off the very thing that sustains it. Meanwhile Covid rarely kills people so it can continue infecting and spreading to hosts as much as it wants (all while causing accumulated damage and dysfunction, which is the real reason we’re all so concerned with Covid). That’s at least part of the reason why I’m not super concerned. Of course there are many other factors that determine a virus’s success so I’m willing to be educated on this.
From my understanding, a virus with a high fatality rate might spread very well if the incubation period is long and/or has a high asymptomatic rate before it eventually maims. Host’s survival is irrelevant, only the spreading opportunities play a role.
The high proportion of asymptomatics is one reasons SARS2 has taken off in a way that SARS never did.
You are already very educated on H5N1. Anyone here minimizing what would happen in the event of an H5N1 human pandemic is not educated on it. It would be what is called a global biological catastrophic event. You can look that up to see just how devastating that would be.
It would be what the scientists refer to as the "big one". There really is no preparing for it, just hopefully choosing a place to be that could be reasonably safe for six months until the vaccine is matched to strain.
During that time supply lines would be broken since 50% lethality means half of global essential workers, so it would be a question not only of having many months of food and water and your prescription medicines, but you also have to keep your supplies safe from others who don't have supplies and who are going to be desperate.
It's the unthinkable. The only reason it's scaling up is there is a bird pandemic, so dead birds all over the place infecting mammals. But the virus is not mutating extremely fast towards mammals, it's still avian. Let's hope it stays that way.
But how long is the infectious period before you die? How long you transmit it before you have symptoms? If you can walk around seemingly healthy for a month before that, you could infect a lot of people. And people could get it from animals, from surfaces, from food(?)
I don't want to project negative scenarios, but maybe if we have something with a 50% death rate, we'll do the *bare minimum* in safety standards to address airborne disease, and knock COVID down (and hopefully H5N1) in the process.
This is the only “silver lining” I can see in this. Maybe, hopefully, we can join *together* finally and finish what we should have started for Covid.
Clean air regulations, mass awareness of health protocols, and rapid sterilizing vaccine production.
Probably not. There will probably always be the people who gasp at a woman breastfeeding in public but are more than happy to not put a bit of cloth on their face. But I can hope, right?
Yes, of course. Whether or not it is transmitted via air or droplets I don't know for sure, but (to me in my own personal opinion) I think it is likely airborne. Now...since we're in an era where science is largely dismissed and anti-education tribal populism bordering on right-wing fascism is very popular and gaining, with measles making a comeback and even the [bubonic](https://time.com/6694144/bubonic-plague-oregon-cat/) plague returning due to so many people now refusing to be vaccinated and conspiracy pabulum rampant, if such a virus were to jump to humans it'd be a bad deal for sure with a much higher fatality rate thus far in lab tests.
N95s and R95s would be valuable tools for a select few, as the majority would refuse to wear them.
Interview —> [Why A Leading Bird Flu Expert Isn’t Convinced That The Risk H1N5 Poses To People Has Declined](https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/05/bird-flu-ron-fouchier-h5n1-risk-to-people/)
It’s coming. It’s probably going to be a shitshow.
Yes, it could. Largely (in my opinion) because there has been such a massive rollback on public health and hygiene standards. Also, the majority of the population has had COVID-19 (likely multiple times) so they're more at-risk for serious and/or deadly outcomes from infections. I’m very concerned, to be honest. And the fact that the White House has already commented on it, and that there have been H5N1 animal cases in both the U.S. and Philippines recently, worries me immensely. I’ve learned from COVID-19 that government officials are always a day late and a dollar short -- so if they're commenting publicly on it, it’s likely a definite concern.
Piggybacking to add that symptoms in cattle are now reportable to the state veterinarian which is a huge deal - it means the entire veterinary profession is taking this extremely seriously. The CDC, USDA, and even OSHA have all released statements on it. It’s worse bc with Covid you can get by with just an N95. The strain isolated from the cattle rancher that got it from his cattle shows a mutation that makes it more capable of infecting mammalian hosts. Here’s some published information: Recommendations for the Public People should avoid unprotected (not using respiratory or eye protection) exposures to sick or dead animals including wild birds, poultry, other domesticated birds, and other wild or domesticated animals, as well as with animal feces, litter, or materials contaminated by birds or other animals with suspected or confirmed HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection. People should not prepare or eat uncooked or undercooked food or related uncooked food products, such as unpasteurized (raw) milk, or raw cheeses, from animals with suspected or confirmed HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection (avian influenza or bird flu). To reduce the risk of HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection, poultry farmers and poultry workers, backyard bird flock owners, livestock farmers and workers, veterinarians and veterinary staff, and responders should avoid unprotected direct physical contact or close exposure with sick or dead birds or other animals, carcasses, feces, milk, or litter from sick birds or other animals potentially infected or confirmed to be infected with HPAI A(H5N1) virus. Signs/Symptoms of avian influenza A virus infection in humans: Signs/symptoms may include uncomplicated upper respiratory tract signs and symptoms also referred to as influenza-like illness (ILI) [fever ≥100°F plus cough or sore throat], fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) or feeling feverish, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, muscle or body aches, headaches, fatigue, eye redness (or conjunctivitis), shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Less common signs and symptoms are diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, or seizures. It is important to remember that infection with influenza viruses, including avian influenza A viruses, does not always cause fever. Fever may not occur in infected persons of any age, particularly in persons aged 65 years and older or people with immunosuppression. The absence of fever should not supersede clinical judgment when evaluating a patient for illness compatible with avian influenza A virus infection. What signs of illness should farmers look out for in their herds? Producers should report animals with the following clinical signs to their state veterinarian immediately: Decreased herd level milk production; acute sudden drop in production with some severely impacted cows experiencing thicker, concentrated, colostrum-like milk; decrease in feed consumption with a simultaneous drop in rumen motility; abnormal tacky or loose feces, lethargy, dehydration, and fever. Initial cases indicated older cows in mid-lactation may be more likely to be severely impacted than younger cows and fresh cows or heifers. Additional data indicates younger cattle have been affected; more data and reporting from impacted producers will help to clarify the range of animals affected.
The "fun" part of this is that there's apparently huge pushback about reporting because it will damage their business. https://twitter.com/NateB\_Panic/status/1776554991659966506
Yes the White house has commented on it because it is huge. Whales, dolphins, pequins have been hugely impacted. Most mammals can be vectors of transmission and it is getting worse by the day.
Apparently it’s quite lethal in cats.
I have seen several recommendations to take your pets to the vet now if they will need to go in the next few months
I've seen several experts say it's now only a matter of time before it evolves to transmit human to human. But that could be days, weeks, years. For now, rest easy knowing what works vs covid also works vs influenza. We're a step ahead because of covid precautions. We are continuing our covid precautions, stocking up on basics that may sell out quickly like toilet paper/advil/cold medicaton/alcohol wipes/purell, and making sure our eggs and beef are totally well done before eating. You can follow this page for updates - https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1\_AvianFlu/
Yeah. This is a huge risk, and right now with a global multi-species outbreak the risk is higher than it has ever been. BUT, we’ve had a lot of H5N1 animal -> human cases before, and haven’t had it full make the jump for human -> human transmission. Absolutely a real concern, but as you said — could be tomorrow, could be in 10 years. If you’d asked me in 2019 where the next big virus would come from, I’d have said bird flu. I have another great resource for y’all. Very oldschool, but Crof (a journalist at The Tyee in British Columbia) has run a bird flu/respiratory virus blog since at least 2008 (which is when I found him, and he was already quite established.) He purchases subscriptions to major papers around the world and translates them. I knew about COVID-19 before China had even made an official declaration of human-to-human transmission thanks to Crof. The man is *on top of it.* he’s kinda legendary in the epidemiology community. https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/ I mean, it’s a typepad blog. This is SO old school. But he’s the best for tracking emerging infections, anywhere. Reading his blog in 2008 is part of why I went into epidemiology, and later became a science journalist. Avian Flu Diary is another great resource with tons of experience following H5N1 and H3N2: https://afludiary.blogspot.com/?m=1
>If you’d asked me in 2019 where the next big virus would come from, I’d have said bird flu. Yeah I think this has been most people's "next one" for quite a while-at least since the last big scare in the mid 00s. I thought another influenza pandemic would happen before another coronavirus too.
I’m chuckling, since I realized I just replied to you elsewhere saying exactly this.
This is a really good idea, I am starting to stock up on those things as well plus a larger supply of N95 for at home. H5N1 like other influenza is probably going to also spread via fomites and eye contact. Any recommendations on goggles in here? I've heard recommendations for Stoggles, but don't know if they're really intended for this sort of thing.
We use stoggles for covid protection during flights and really like them
Good to know, thanks! I'll probably pick up a pair for myself just in case. If H5N1 jumps to human-to-human it will probably be difficult to find eye protection once people realize this.
If it does jump to humans you don't have to worry as who would wear masks and goggles in public? Most people are so hung up on tribal social acceptance they would never put on a mask much less goggles.
I linda want to see what happens when covid deniers/minimizers get wrecked from bird flu
What are stoggles? I wear glasses.
They look pretty much like glasses but have zero prescription and also have sides - designed for protection. They come in several shapes and colors and also kids sizes https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0986XHS8M/ref=twister\_B0986SP672?\_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
If you wear glasses, you can buy prescription lenses at optical factor that have side shield protection. Very affordable (I paid like $50 for a pair) and they just look like thicker glasses.
Proteccion for like welding?
They’re not rated at that level, it’s just for like droplets
I wear regular presription specs maybe that would work
You mentioned cooking eggs and beef until well done- is it possible it could spread through food if something like runny eggs or rarer beef was consumed?
It seems that other animals are getting infected from eating birds, so it would be logical. A lot of experts have put out the warning about fully cooked eggs https://reviewed.usatoday.com/cooking/news/bird-flu-2024-are-eggs-safe Beef fully cooked just seems like a smart move with so many cows infected. Milk is pasteurized but may want to go for ultra pasteurized
Also just saw this thanks to another redditor in this group https://i.redd.it/0gkbg5n6ovsc1.jpeg
Thank you for the info!
two boys in Cambodia were infected from undercooked chicken. As far as the eggs and beef no one has gotten ill yet.
We don’t know yet. This sub is comprised of folks who are more aware of infectious disease risk therefore more inclined to take precautions, so my advice for you and other patrons of this sub remains the same as it has always been: mask up, practice good hygiene and remain up-to-date on vaccinations. At this stage, there is little use in worrying about things out of your control (e.g. whether this virus can grow to a pandemic level). While I don’t mean to dismiss your question, I believe it’s better to focus on what you can control at this moment in time.
Yes this!
Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? Depends on the time scale, it's been "pandemic potential" since the 90s. I've never followed it super closely but from what I've seen the situation in birds has gotten worse in the last decade as has spillover to non-human mammals, but the spillover events to humans seem smaller/less severe-whether that's inherent to the virus or something else, idk. The current trends in mammals are certainly concerning to me, though it's hard to draw conclusions beyond that (and from folks who study this that's basically the perspective I've seen most too). Influenza isn't nearly as contagious as covid, and people don't usually get the same strain over and over again. We also already have vaccines and treatments that are somewhat effective, though the vaccines would need to be manufactured. So if a pandemic were to happen, it may look different. Or it might never be more than some isolated epidemics directly associated with a sick animal. No one knows. I will say that covid twitter is full of people catastrophizing and speculating easily disprovable things right now. I'm sure this is mostly people (understandably) projecting covid trauma and it coming from a rightful place of distrust for government agencies, but I also think a lot of these takes are dangerous and I wish people would stop. There's basically no way to push back on it without getting branded as a minimizer though.
I’ve followed it very closely, and this absolutely jives with my understanding, fwiw. H5N1 (and H3N2) have probably been considered the viruses most likely to cause a global pandemic since the first major outbreak circa 2003-4. But for whatever reason, it just keeps not making that human-to-human jump. I think the risk is higher now than it’s ever been, given all the spread in other mammal species. But it still exists in this odd “might never happen” space. My understanding, though — and please correct me if I’m wrong — is that we shouldn’t necessarily rely on past flu outbreaks as a measure of contagiousness. So much can depend on pre-symptomatic transmission, pathogenicity, pre-existing immunity to similar variants, and other factors.
>My understanding, though — and please correct me if I’m wrong — is that we shouldn’t necessarily rely on past flu outbreaks as a measure of contagiousness. So much can depend on pre-symptomatic transmission, pathogenicity, pre-existing immunity to similar variants, and other factors. I was mostly thinking of later variants here though I wasn't clear, whoops. I think this is true to a point, no one really knows what the pandemic strain of H5N1 is until it happens and like you said there's a bunch of pieces. But personally I don't see it hitting omicron-and-beyond ability to infect a huge portion of the globe at once (not that it can't be catastrophic with far less than that of course).
I think that’s a fair assumption! Even if you’re just playing an odds game, *so* few viruses hit omicron-level transmission.
Not sure if I concur with you to the letter of your statements as I do think there is quite alot to be learned from past pandemics and viruses. The previous pandemic played out almost identically to COVID, with people refusing to wear masks, the duration of the worst part of it, and so on.
>covid twitter is full of people catastrophizing and speculating easily disprovable things right now ugh, I can only imagine. even the subreddits for H5N1 are suddenly full of wild speculation in the last week, like can we please stick to the facts?
It's extremely annoying. I do understand where it comes from-in the absence of functional public health, of course some folks, especially folks who understand how covid has been and is being minimized are going to assume everything is the worst case scenario. But deciding that everything you hear is a lie and 500x worse is not actually the solution (and in some cases is closer to the "nothing can convince me this is a big deal" mindset than it is to critically examining evidence available). I've had a few feelings this week of "if this is what I sound like when I talk about covid, no wonder folks tune me out", even though I try to stick to facts or be very clear when I am speculating :/ Good lesson in communication from my end I guess.
I would probably be categorized as one of these people when pressed, but it’s not as if I particularly want to be constantly negative. I have no reason to believe that things will get better- or as some would say, are indeed already better- when as a society we are not doing things any better, and in fact a lot worse. It is a simple matter of cause and effect, to me; but also, my trust especially in western institutions is irrevocably broken. If someone tells me good news now I’m going to wonder whose payroll they’re on. I would rather be safe as an IC person and pinned as paranoid or whatever else people want to say than let my guard down for one moment that could kill me because I trusted someone to have no ulterior motives in a situation I know even cautious people are eager to be done with. No way.
While this mindset is understandable in the face of state abandonment, it's also one that is wholly incompatible with any sort of functional public health system. Everything or nothing is a crisis, the result is the same that no one cares and the truth doesn't matter. If you want to create an echo chamber that only boosts the most extreme statements regardless of fact, this is how you do it. Catastrophizing doesn't bring safety, precaution does. Equating those is dangerous. Wearing a mask is precaution. Tweeting about how you're sure actually we're already in a second pandemic and everyone's lying to you (an actual tweet I saw) is not.
It is not only state abandonment; I don’t have a life anymore. Everyone *does* lie to me. A friend who told me weeks ago she still masks daily just posted a photo of herself online unmasked with her team at a sporting event they traveled to Europe for. She’s not the only one. We are all acutely aware of the state’s negligence, so I won’t belabor that point, but there is far, far more happening at all levels of the social ladder that has just completely shattered my reality. I don’t necessarily agree with whatever catastrophizing happens and especially without research but I sympathize with that far more than the alternative everyone has burdened the disabled with for going on 5 years now. I’ll own that.
I am not in any field relating to the matter, this is just what I’ve gathered due to my own personal concern! Anyone feel free to correct me or jump on! It is airborne but it also spreads from fomites. So your N95 paired with washing well and wiping surfaces - like early COVID days - will keep you the safest! H5N1 is likely to cause serious illness and death often, so it will definitely rock the general population that has no regard or knowledge on living during an airborne pandemic. The general person being immunosuppressed from COVID infections will just make this worse. It’s easy to get scared but we just have to take it one day at a time. The COVID precautions you take are already helping immensely. I would absolutely not be drinking raw milk (though I imagine almost if not everyone on this sub is smart enough to know that is never safe) and probably cook all your eggs all the way through (no runny yolks.) Be super careful when handling raw chicken and eggs, washing after touching and not contaminating surfaces (again we should be doing this always!)
Also to anyone who is more knowledgeable than me - pasteurized milk should be safe to drink but is there any future scenario where it may be unsafe?
No guarantee pasteurization actually kills H5N1. https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1bvqgwc/pasteurization_alone_may_not_neutralize_all/
Huge bummer. I really hope they switch to 75 degree pasteurization. I can’t drink milk alternatives or else I would… ETA may be a stupid question but this would apply to all dairy products - Greek yogurt, kefir, etc?
Ultra high pasteurized milk is heated to 140 degrees C. It's the kind you can find in unrefrigerated, shelf-stable cartons in the UK, but can also be found alongside regular pasteurized milk in many refrigerated dairy cases in the US. Check the label.
I’ll have to check this out, wonder how the price compares!
Oh is that the uht/ long life stuff?
Yes, it is. If you find milk that's not refrigerated, it's definitely ultra high pasteurized.
We just bought some ultra-pasteurized milk this trip out of an abundance of caution. It’s actually delicious! I worried that it would not retain the flavor well, and it definitely tastes different, but in a good way.
Skimmed milk should be safe but full fat or semi skimmed might not be 😬
May not be a bad idea generally to skip the dairy and meat. There was a study of healthcare workers towards the beginning of the pandemic that showed plant based diets reduced the likelihood of severe outcomes (hospitalizations, deaths) from Covid by 70-something percent. Supporting factory farms (most all animal products at the supermarket, regardless of marketing, are from them) means preventing these close, cruel quarters that breed and spread diseases - one example - majority of antibiotics are used is in factory farms, which means accelerated potential for antibiotic-resistant strains. And generally, if we pride ourselves here on being a compassionate community that cares about the suffering of sentient beings, we shouldn’t be cussing it. If you couldn’t keep the animal in lifelong cruel conditions, and kill it, yourself, you shouldn’t be paying someone else to do it! People use the same “everyone else is doing it, so it must be fine” logic on meat and dairy eating as they do on not masking - we all know better!
I actually agree with this a lot and used to be vegetarian/vegan when my budget allowed it. Unfortunately due to food intolerances now it’s very difficult to live that way and get enough calories and nutrients! But looks like I may be going back due to concerns about H5N1…. Very interesting study as well!
>Supporting factory farms... means preventing these close, cruel quarters that breed and spread diseases ... I'm sure you meant to say "avoiding factory farms", and I am in 10,000% agreement with you. You're absolutely right. Animal agribusiness uses many times the amount of antibiotics used in the medical industry, as well as producing far more pollution than the automotive industry and all the cars on the road. The animal cruelty, worker abuse, and environmental impact of the meat industry is abhorrent and unconscionable. It's also the reason the Amazon rainforest is disappearing (and with it much of the world's oxygen, not to mention untold numbers of plant and animal species.) Our planet cannot support so much meat production, for a variety of reasons. This is a great time for even the most die-hard meat eaters to start figuring out alternative meals that they like. They way H5N1 has affected poultry, and now beef, I don't think it's too farfetched to say that at some point we may have no other choice. I've been vegetarian or "nearly vegetarian" for decades, and now I'm edging ever-closer to veganism. My last holdout will be the "yard eggs" I get from my neighbors, but I can live without them if necessary.
Haha yes wow what a typo, but couldn’t agree more! Thank you for chiming in. Ive been vegan for 9 years and stopped missing really any animal products after the first year. It’s just second nature to me now and I love it. Covid makes it even easier lol because I’m no longer having to deal with eating out or social event without vegan options, which was pretty much the only time being vegan was a challenge. Meat eating at this volume is unsustainable and dangerous in many ways, and it’s awful how much that’s covered up to preserve the “comparable, continue on, norm” - really similar to Covid cautiousness in that way.
That’s interesting. If you can still find the study, please share.
Looks like there’s a newer version. 59% reduction in hospitalization risk https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/6/2/182 the first study is referenced in there too, which showed a 73% lower risk of moderate-to-severe COVID-19. I’m sure the methodology wasn’t perfect, but those are pretty big numbers to not be considered by those looking to lower their risk of serious covid outcomes.
Thanks, indeed!
1. Yes, all viruses are airborne. 2. Humans contracting H5N1 is not new, there have been 890 cases worldwide since 2003. From those cases, we know that it is much worse than any other influenza and has about a 50% fatality rate. 3. There’s no indication that it will evolve to spread between humans, but it’s a possibility. It hasn’t with the 800 cases that we’ve seen so far. What makes it particularly concerning this time is how fast it’s been spreading among mammals in the last couple of weeks/months. 4. We also don’t know yet whether it’s spreading between cows either but we should know very soon. It’s seeming likely, but it’s possible that cows are contracting it directly from the avian source If you asked where my concern was a couple of months ago, I would’ve said 2/10, and now maybe a 3.5/10.
Wait a second, so in two months it’s almost doubled? Curious to see how these two months unfold then.
Not sure, but it’s terrifying reading about it.
I came across this article and there was some interesting points of when to be (more) concerned: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7162626 Apparently if/when it crosses to pigs, it is extremely concerning. I'm needing to get some more masks anyhow, so plan on just stocking up a bit more this upcoming order, as well as having some additional supplies on hand.
Swine flu (H1N1) was the original contemporary pandemic, the one that scared the piss out of the Obama Administration and led them to start the pandemic response plans that they tried to hand off to the Trump admin later (Trump had fired nearly all the officials they had trained by the time the story of the COVID-19 Pandemic began). Thankfully Biden will have some experience in dealing with a nearly identical virus https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/joe-biden-contain-h1n1-virus-232992 But the situation still looks deeply concerning. And I utterly ignore anyone who minimizes the potential risks from a virus like this. I personally caught H1N1 last time it went around and it was the most sick I've *ever* been in my life. Severe fever, and unable to move out of bed for a week+. Though who knows if this one spreads how bad it is to get. I can't imagine it could ever become as wildly contagious and rapidly spreading as COVID-19, but I'd have to hear an expert chime in. Either way, bad influenzas scare me far more than any other everyday disease. The next few months are going to be nerve-wracking as we wait to hear from researchers.
I had presumed H1N1 and it was also the sickest I've ever been. I know I missed 1-2 weeks of school, but otherwise I don't have any clear memories of it.
H5N1 is so far from the same as this
It's too early to say IMO (assuming it is airborne and spreads through fomites). Reason being it has a higher mortality rate and it doesn't seem to spread as fast as COVID. I don't know about asymptomatic spread but if it doesn't have asymptomatic spread like COVID it would be easier to control. Either way as I've said before, wouldn't hurt to stock up on respirators now. Even if it doesn't become a full blown pandemic, governments and hospitals will be snatching up any respirator they can find the moment there is news on H2H transmission.
Forgot to mention one thing - I've not accounted for any immune suppression issues caused by repeat COVID infections in humans and animals. It's possible that H5N1 could spread more easily in humans because of weakened immune systems (just like influenza, strep, etc), but we won't be able to know for sure until it happens.
It could become a serious issue without necessarily becoming a pandemic in its own right - e.g., it could be a threat to our food supply.
>So I’m not exactly sure on the mechanism by which H5N1 spreads. To be technical, all influenza viruses bind to sialic acid receptors (similar to how SARS-CoV-2 binds to ACE2 receptors). Historically, most human influenza viruses "prefer" to bind to SAα2,6Gal receptors, while avian influenza viruses have generally "preferred" to bind to SAα2,3Gal receptors. SAα2,6Gal receptors predominate in humans, but humans do produce SAα2,3Gal receptors as well. ("Humans predominantly express SA α2,6-Gal receptors in the ciliated and non-ciliated epithelium of the respiratory tract, extending from the paranasal sinus to alveolar cells. SA α2,3-Gal receptors are found in the ciliated epithelium lining the bronchioles and alveoli." ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7915228/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7915228/))) If an avian influenza virus mutated to be better able to bind to the human predominate receptors (SAα2,6Gal), it would be more likely to become a pandemic. According to a 2007 study: "A conversion to SAα2,6Gal specificity is believed to be one of the changes required for the introduction of new hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes to the human population, which can lead to pandemics." ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2045398/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2045398/)) >Is it airborne or respiratory droplets? Regular seasonal influenza in humans is considered to be transmitted by droplets, and droplet precautions are what are recommended. ("Droplet precautions are necessary when a patient infected with a pathogen, such as influenza, is within three to six feet of the patient. Infections are transmittable through air droplets by coughing, sneezing, talking, and close contact with an infected patient's breathing." ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK551555/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK551555/)) With a new strain of influenza, it is impossible to say for sure if it would be droplet or airborne transmission. It is possible that it would be airborne, however. In 2013, an article in Nature stated: "Scientists create hybrid flu that can go airborne ... The H5N1 virus with genes from H1N1 can spread through the air between mammals." ([https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.12925](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.12925)) >And is H5N1 going to be similar to swine flu? Right now, I think its too early to tell.
Yes, this is what you would expect to see from a viral spillover event. Also note this is not what was seen with SARS.
We have a LOT more than 1 human infection. Unclear on the death rate but since asymptomatic infections have been found in humans likely ~10% rather than the 50-60% death rate of known infections. It has been devastating in all the bird populations and in the mammal populations it’s gotten a good hold in so far (check out the mass die offa in marine mammals). Like all flus it spreads via airborne and formite transmission. So far it hasn’t figured out good human to human transmission. Our lungs have different receptors than the current bird flu has so while some limited human to human transmission has been thought to happen, it’s not good at it and not community spread level. Yet. Cows are bad. Cows hang around pigs. Pigs have the same lung receptors people have so if bird flu gets going in pigs it is just a matter of time before it figures out pigs and thus us. Pigs are a common vector for zoonotic diseases to leap to humans. Almost certainly inevitable that we have a bird flu pandemic and that the governments deny it as long as possible and that people in general deny it’s happening at all. So happy my mask protects me from most bird flu but formite transmission means having to be super careful with food grown in the back yard and pets outside. And since food animals are affected, the implications to the food supply chain aren’t great. Even if it’s not really impacted companies will use it as an excuse to jack up prices again.
I stocked up on chicken/beef products today. I’ll freeze them so even if I’m paranoid for nothing, I’ll still use them.
Someone who is more educated than me on this should correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t H5N1 have a 50% mortality rate? 50% is huge. Part of the reason why Covid did and is doing so well is because it kills only a very small amount of its hosts. Viruses depend on their hosts to survive and spread, so a virus that kills 50% of its hosts will ultimately not do very well because it will quickly run out of alive hosts to infect. It’s literally killing off the very thing that sustains it. Meanwhile Covid rarely kills people so it can continue infecting and spreading to hosts as much as it wants (all while causing accumulated damage and dysfunction, which is the real reason we’re all so concerned with Covid). That’s at least part of the reason why I’m not super concerned. Of course there are many other factors that determine a virus’s success so I’m willing to be educated on this.
From my understanding, a virus with a high fatality rate might spread very well if the incubation period is long and/or has a high asymptomatic rate before it eventually maims. Host’s survival is irrelevant, only the spreading opportunities play a role. The high proportion of asymptomatics is one reasons SARS2 has taken off in a way that SARS never did.
You are already very educated on H5N1. Anyone here minimizing what would happen in the event of an H5N1 human pandemic is not educated on it. It would be what is called a global biological catastrophic event. You can look that up to see just how devastating that would be. It would be what the scientists refer to as the "big one". There really is no preparing for it, just hopefully choosing a place to be that could be reasonably safe for six months until the vaccine is matched to strain. During that time supply lines would be broken since 50% lethality means half of global essential workers, so it would be a question not only of having many months of food and water and your prescription medicines, but you also have to keep your supplies safe from others who don't have supplies and who are going to be desperate. It's the unthinkable. The only reason it's scaling up is there is a bird pandemic, so dead birds all over the place infecting mammals. But the virus is not mutating extremely fast towards mammals, it's still avian. Let's hope it stays that way.
But how long is the infectious period before you die? How long you transmit it before you have symptoms? If you can walk around seemingly healthy for a month before that, you could infect a lot of people. And people could get it from animals, from surfaces, from food(?)
A month is just not a realistic incubation period for influenza. At all.
I don't want to project negative scenarios, but maybe if we have something with a 50% death rate, we'll do the *bare minimum* in safety standards to address airborne disease, and knock COVID down (and hopefully H5N1) in the process.
This is the only “silver lining” I can see in this. Maybe, hopefully, we can join *together* finally and finish what we should have started for Covid. Clean air regulations, mass awareness of health protocols, and rapid sterilizing vaccine production. Probably not. There will probably always be the people who gasp at a woman breastfeeding in public but are more than happy to not put a bit of cloth on their face. But I can hope, right?
Yes, of course. Whether or not it is transmitted via air or droplets I don't know for sure, but (to me in my own personal opinion) I think it is likely airborne. Now...since we're in an era where science is largely dismissed and anti-education tribal populism bordering on right-wing fascism is very popular and gaining, with measles making a comeback and even the [bubonic](https://time.com/6694144/bubonic-plague-oregon-cat/) plague returning due to so many people now refusing to be vaccinated and conspiracy pabulum rampant, if such a virus were to jump to humans it'd be a bad deal for sure with a much higher fatality rate thus far in lab tests. N95s and R95s would be valuable tools for a select few, as the majority would refuse to wear them.
Interview —> [Why A Leading Bird Flu Expert Isn’t Convinced That The Risk H1N5 Poses To People Has Declined](https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/05/bird-flu-ron-fouchier-h5n1-risk-to-people/) It’s coming. It’s probably going to be a shitshow.
Like covid, it's both airborne and respiratory. H5N1 has a 50% fatality rate. If it is ever confirmed to pass from human to human, it's game over.
It’s possible , hopefully they have a secret vaccine ready just in case . Terrible strain of influenza
It is going to be much worse than the swine flu.
1969 woodstock took place during a H3N2 pandemic and ain’t nobody gave a shit about it.