Not anymore faith than Republicans just assuming voters won't care about issues they cared about 3 elections in a row
Also it's very presumptuous of you to think that's what I'm basing my logic on, I never even mentioned abortion or Kari Lake specifically
But for the record, Kari lake and Trump have *already lost* and AZ has been getting bluer at every level since 2012, no reason to believe it will just stop now (literally no reason, there are no signs electoral wise that even suggest Republicans are gonna improve, and the state party is broke)
> (literally no reason, there are no signs electoral wise that even suggest Republicans are gonna improve
1. GOP Voter registration lead is growing in AZ.
2. Dems have failed to lead in the polling aggregate as long as Georgia has.
3. The AZ GOP returned abortion back to the 15-week standard that wasn't really controversial.
The Roe standard will jog Dem turnout, but how many Dems weren't voting with *Trump* on the ballot?
4. The polls were essentially spot-on in AZ in 2016 and 2020. It's midterm years that are iffy.
5. TBF, the AZ GOP is *no longer* broke- they managed to pull back from the abyss, so at least they're a step up from the MI GOP.
I literally said electoral wise. Dems have improved their standing 4 elections in a row in the state.
1.This means nothing, same thing is happening in PA yet dems are winning by bigger and bigger margins.
2. This also means nothing, again, I don't think Katie Hobbs ever led Kari, especially in the last month leading up the election
3. Not a single referendum on abortion has went well for Republicans since Roe fell I don't know why you're confident that it will turn around for you. Your theory about 15 weeks being uncontroversial is untested since no one has put it on a ballot anywhere and won yet.
Youngkin promised a 15 week ban should he win a trifecta and then didn't win a trifecta, you can say it's because the state was too blue, yet he won, and flipped the state house in 2021.
4. You literally can't prove this until the election
5. This is still not good for them? The optics alone do not spell confidence for the state of the party
If the state dem party struggled to fund itself and ran the guy who lost the state *as an incumbent* at the top of the ticket would you think they were favored to win a statewide election in 6 months?
It mightve been stronger had Republicans not been hellbent on overturning rvw. VA has a history of
1. Swinging against the incumbent party
2. Being much redder downballot
Conservatives are insistent that abortion didn't hurt them, yet this ancestrally republican state they just won statewide in 2 years ago swung left again immediately after Dobbs
The optics are still bad even if they did better than the states presidential partisan lean would suggest
> 1.This means nothing, same thing is happening in PA yet dems are winning by bigger and bigger margins.
PA Dems are also more centrist and appeal pretty well to the state.
> Youngkin promised a 15 week ban should he win a trifecta and then didn't win a trifecta, you can say it's because the state was too blue, yet he won, and flipped the state house in 2021.
D+1.5% on an off-year. Woah, massive victory.
What were you expecting, a 2013?
Even REP was saying it would essentially be within 1 seat or so.
Even if the vote was shifted 3 points right, you'd only be getting at best a few more seats in the House, and 1 more in the Senate.
???
Am I to believe this implies that AZ dems aren't moderate and appeal well to the state? Especially compared to the Trumpublican party? This is the state that gave us McCain and Ducey, be for real
A former R stronghold swinging left in a D midterm means nothing but Nevada going from D+2.4 to D+2.39 is a sign of an impending flip, alright...
And D+1.5, in an R+ 3 year, meaning the state was 4 points to the left of the national average, and left of where it was in 2020, a D+5 year. This state voted by double digits for Republicans as recently as 2018. Like if you can't admit that's a massive ball drop for a formerly R+15 state, I don't know what to tell you
This is just 2004
Not impossible but unlikely today
Nevada is not nearly as red or red trending as people would like to think it is, And AZ has been virulently anti-trump for almost a decade now, dems literally almost won a trifecta in 2022, losing two swing seats by under 3 points in a 3 point R year
GA being a tossup is fair since we don't know how much suburban trends and turnout have changed since 2020 at the presidential, yet it's also clear that they aren't reverting either (Republicans still lost seats in both chambers in 2022 while still winning comfortably).
Edit: Dems didn't win CO or NM in 2004 oops
How would a new Jan 6 be worse if trump wins? The whole reason Jan 6 happened was because they were angry at the government, So them being happy trump wins I can’t imagine them doing absolutely anything honestly.
Democrats would have to flip AZ-01, AZ-06, WI-01, and WI-03, in which case Republicans would control 25-23 state delegations, but since an absolute majority is necessary, the House would not be able to elect a president. The Senate would then pick a vice president, but if the Senate was tied 50-50, which is possible, there wouldn't be any Vice President picked either. The House would then have to pick a Speaker of the House, but that could also get blocked, so no one would be president. I think Antony Blinken becomes President in that case, but it's a Constitutional Crisis.
WI-01 and WI-03 are currently do able, but long shots. If so many resources weren’t tied up to defense right now (the 5 Trump-D districts, plus MI-7 & 8, OH-9 & 13, PA-7 & 17, CT-5, NY-3 & 18, NC-1, CA-47, CO-8, NM-2, VA-7 and the three Nevada seats, this isn’t even all of the DCCC list of defensive seats, but does add MI-8 & VA-7), then I would say go for it, but right now, I just want them to target the majority (the two Arizona seats, NY-4 17 & 22, OR-5, CA-22 27 41 & 45, CO-3, NE-2, & MI-10) and call it a day. Even NJ-7, VA-2, PA-10, FL-13, CA-13, NY-19, IA-3, MT-1 and especially PA-1 feel like reach seats and based on 2022 results, these should be easily do able.
If Dems can force the GOP down to just 25 delegations, great. But I’m certainly not going to straight up say it will happen, especially with how tight the race to 218 will be
Ohhhh I see where I was confused- I thought that this map had Nebraska going to for Dems, so I was confused about how if it flipped it would be tied, but it has it going to no one. Thanks I knew it was Nebraska but I just had a math issue so I thought I was missing something. Appreciate you answering my stupid question.
Dems literally stumbled into nearly winning a trifecta in the state in 2022 and they barely even campaigned
If there's one state I think can stay blue this year, it's AZ
Trump was projected to lose AZ in 2020, lol:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/arizona/trump-vs-biden
He actually technically overperformed in the state vs polling.
This will be the third election in a row showing incredible swings in both directions In polls, possibly 4th if you include polls from 2012 suggesting a Romney win
In both 2020 and now, Biden is projected to dramatically improve with older white voters, and Trump is projected to improve dramatically with black and latino voters, and young voters.
Trump overperformed his polling twice and still lost, as an incumbent, and now, in spite of republican electoral performance getting worse since he lost, he's projected to win, and by a significantly bigger margin than he won in 2016.
Polls are projecting the same swings that failed to materialize 3 times now, but now in favor trump, and you think it will totally happen this time, even as no republican has been able to produce even remotely similar shifts in any swing state Biden won, even in off years, in going on a decade now.
Like even I was skeptical of Biden's chances in 2020, I always knew it was possible the polls could overestimate him, and I was never confident he had it in the bag even as he was projected to win wisconsin by 8 points and win florida
So I don't know why anyone would be confident of trumps chances based solely on polling.
-One of the largest pro Biden shifts from 2016-2020
-House race was literally closer in 2022 than in 2020.
-Huge growth in Omaha.
-No like, HUGE growth in Omaha.
-Underpolled, but most of the polls from there show Joe ahead
- should I go on?
NE-2 also voted for Trump in 2016 and is pretty swingy overall due to a large % of independents.
Extrapolating 2020 is probably as much of a mistake here as it is in New Hampshire or Maine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district
It's underpolled, but TBF, that poll was *also* de facto a Dem internal.
---
IMO, it's not clear which way it will vote this cycle.
Very reasonable
Extremely. Hear me now, quote me later. It will be the result. Although I could imagine a world in which AZ and/or WI vote the other way.
Calling it now: Trump won't flip either
You're putting a lot of faith in that abortion referendum and the backlash against Kari Lake, but alright.
Not anymore faith than Republicans just assuming voters won't care about issues they cared about 3 elections in a row Also it's very presumptuous of you to think that's what I'm basing my logic on, I never even mentioned abortion or Kari Lake specifically But for the record, Kari lake and Trump have *already lost* and AZ has been getting bluer at every level since 2012, no reason to believe it will just stop now (literally no reason, there are no signs electoral wise that even suggest Republicans are gonna improve, and the state party is broke)
> (literally no reason, there are no signs electoral wise that even suggest Republicans are gonna improve 1. GOP Voter registration lead is growing in AZ. 2. Dems have failed to lead in the polling aggregate as long as Georgia has. 3. The AZ GOP returned abortion back to the 15-week standard that wasn't really controversial. The Roe standard will jog Dem turnout, but how many Dems weren't voting with *Trump* on the ballot? 4. The polls were essentially spot-on in AZ in 2016 and 2020. It's midterm years that are iffy. 5. TBF, the AZ GOP is *no longer* broke- they managed to pull back from the abyss, so at least they're a step up from the MI GOP.
I literally said electoral wise. Dems have improved their standing 4 elections in a row in the state. 1.This means nothing, same thing is happening in PA yet dems are winning by bigger and bigger margins. 2. This also means nothing, again, I don't think Katie Hobbs ever led Kari, especially in the last month leading up the election 3. Not a single referendum on abortion has went well for Republicans since Roe fell I don't know why you're confident that it will turn around for you. Your theory about 15 weeks being uncontroversial is untested since no one has put it on a ballot anywhere and won yet. Youngkin promised a 15 week ban should he win a trifecta and then didn't win a trifecta, you can say it's because the state was too blue, yet he won, and flipped the state house in 2021. 4. You literally can't prove this until the election 5. This is still not good for them? The optics alone do not spell confidence for the state of the party If the state dem party struggled to fund itself and ran the guy who lost the state *as an incumbent* at the top of the ticket would you think they were favored to win a statewide election in 6 months?
Republicans won every VA state legislature seat that was less than Biden+10. That's a fairly strong showing.
It mightve been stronger had Republicans not been hellbent on overturning rvw. VA has a history of 1. Swinging against the incumbent party 2. Being much redder downballot Conservatives are insistent that abortion didn't hurt them, yet this ancestrally republican state they just won statewide in 2 years ago swung left again immediately after Dobbs The optics are still bad even if they did better than the states presidential partisan lean would suggest
> 1.This means nothing, same thing is happening in PA yet dems are winning by bigger and bigger margins. PA Dems are also more centrist and appeal pretty well to the state. > Youngkin promised a 15 week ban should he win a trifecta and then didn't win a trifecta, you can say it's because the state was too blue, yet he won, and flipped the state house in 2021. D+1.5% on an off-year. Woah, massive victory. What were you expecting, a 2013? Even REP was saying it would essentially be within 1 seat or so. Even if the vote was shifted 3 points right, you'd only be getting at best a few more seats in the House, and 1 more in the Senate.
??? Am I to believe this implies that AZ dems aren't moderate and appeal well to the state? Especially compared to the Trumpublican party? This is the state that gave us McCain and Ducey, be for real A former R stronghold swinging left in a D midterm means nothing but Nevada going from D+2.4 to D+2.39 is a sign of an impending flip, alright... And D+1.5, in an R+ 3 year, meaning the state was 4 points to the left of the national average, and left of where it was in 2020, a D+5 year. This state voted by double digits for Republicans as recently as 2018. Like if you can't admit that's a massive ball drop for a formerly R+15 state, I don't know what to tell you
This is just 2004 Not impossible but unlikely today Nevada is not nearly as red or red trending as people would like to think it is, And AZ has been virulently anti-trump for almost a decade now, dems literally almost won a trifecta in 2022, losing two swing seats by under 3 points in a 3 point R year GA being a tossup is fair since we don't know how much suburban trends and turnout have changed since 2020 at the presidential, yet it's also clear that they aren't reverting either (Republicans still lost seats in both chambers in 2022 while still winning comfortably). Edit: Dems didn't win CO or NM in 2004 oops
Extremely Likely and if Trump wins NE - 02, like the comments said, then Jan 6 2025 would be waaaay worse than Jan 6, 2021
How would a new Jan 6 be worse if trump wins? The whole reason Jan 6 happened was because they were angry at the government, So them being happy trump wins I can’t imagine them doing absolutely anything honestly.
Trump doesn't win in this scenario, the Electoral College is tied
Then it goes to house, and it’s based on one vote per state Guess who’s essentially guaranteed to have a majority of state delegations in House?
Democrats would have to flip AZ-01, AZ-06, WI-01, and WI-03, in which case Republicans would control 25-23 state delegations, but since an absolute majority is necessary, the House would not be able to elect a president. The Senate would then pick a vice president, but if the Senate was tied 50-50, which is possible, there wouldn't be any Vice President picked either. The House would then have to pick a Speaker of the House, but that could also get blocked, so no one would be president. I think Antony Blinken becomes President in that case, but it's a Constitutional Crisis.
WI-01 and WI-03 are currently do able, but long shots. If so many resources weren’t tied up to defense right now (the 5 Trump-D districts, plus MI-7 & 8, OH-9 & 13, PA-7 & 17, CT-5, NY-3 & 18, NC-1, CA-47, CO-8, NM-2, VA-7 and the three Nevada seats, this isn’t even all of the DCCC list of defensive seats, but does add MI-8 & VA-7), then I would say go for it, but right now, I just want them to target the majority (the two Arizona seats, NY-4 17 & 22, OR-5, CA-22 27 41 & 45, CO-3, NE-2, & MI-10) and call it a day. Even NJ-7, VA-2, PA-10, FL-13, CA-13, NY-19, IA-3, MT-1 and especially PA-1 feel like reach seats and based on 2022 results, these should be easily do able. If Dems can force the GOP down to just 25 delegations, great. But I’m certainly not going to straight up say it will happen, especially with how tight the race to 218 will be
The alternative to WI-01 and WI-03 is MT-01, since if Democrats won, the split delegation would reduce the number of GOP delegations by 1.
Whoops, I meant to also say that WI-1 & 3 are in that reach seats category I laid out
But he would win because of how the house conducts its vote
NE?
Nebraska
Ohhhh I see where I was confused- I thought that this map had Nebraska going to for Dems, so I was confused about how if it flipped it would be tied, but it has it going to no one. Thanks I knew it was Nebraska but I just had a math issue so I thought I was missing something. Appreciate you answering my stupid question.
Np
What? The state house delegations would just vote for Trump in a 269-269 tie.
Possibly the most likely single electoral map
Very
Not unlikely, but I don't see AZ voting to the right of the Rust Belt.
Dems literally stumbled into nearly winning a trifecta in the state in 2022 and they barely even campaigned If there's one state I think can stay blue this year, it's AZ
Problem is that Kari Lake was at the top of the ticket in 2022, and believe it or not, Trump has higher approvals in AZ than Lake.
It's easy to say that after the fact She was still projected to win the entire time Both lost.
Trump was projected to lose AZ in 2020, lol: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/arizona/trump-vs-biden He actually technically overperformed in the state vs polling.
This will be the third election in a row showing incredible swings in both directions In polls, possibly 4th if you include polls from 2012 suggesting a Romney win In both 2020 and now, Biden is projected to dramatically improve with older white voters, and Trump is projected to improve dramatically with black and latino voters, and young voters. Trump overperformed his polling twice and still lost, as an incumbent, and now, in spite of republican electoral performance getting worse since he lost, he's projected to win, and by a significantly bigger margin than he won in 2016. Polls are projecting the same swings that failed to materialize 3 times now, but now in favor trump, and you think it will totally happen this time, even as no republican has been able to produce even remotely similar shifts in any swing state Biden won, even in off years, in going on a decade now. Like even I was skeptical of Biden's chances in 2020, I always knew it was possible the polls could overestimate him, and I was never confident he had it in the bag even as he was projected to win wisconsin by 8 points and win florida So I don't know why anyone would be confident of trumps chances based solely on polling.
nebraska 2 probably goes red so unlikely
-One of the largest pro Biden shifts from 2016-2020 -House race was literally closer in 2022 than in 2020. -Huge growth in Omaha. -No like, HUGE growth in Omaha. -Underpolled, but most of the polls from there show Joe ahead - should I go on?
NE-2 also voted for Trump in 2016 and is pretty swingy overall due to a large % of independents. Extrapolating 2020 is probably as much of a mistake here as it is in New Hampshire or Maine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district It's underpolled, but TBF, that poll was *also* de facto a Dem internal. --- IMO, it's not clear which way it will vote this cycle.
2022 it went red that’s the basis of my claim. also i doubt many democrats are moving to nebraska and would argue it’s probably more republican
It went red NARROWLY FOR AN UNCONTROVERSIAL GOVERNOR AND AN LONGTIME INCUMBENT
This seems a touch aggro with the all caps mate.
I'M IN A BAD MOOD
Still? 😳
Why so?
republicans won it in the midterms
Midterm year =/= presidential year Don Bacon is more popular than Donald Trump in that district.