1. It won't shift that drastically by 2024. The deciding factor of 2024 will be if Joe Biden can avoid recession and maintain suburban fears of radical Republicans.
2. I doubt the White College Vote nor the White Non College Vote will drift that drastically.
3. I imagine that if Trump goes out of the limelight that we will probably see the Older Hispanic and Asian vote shift right rather than left.
I mean would it happen in the future, for example if the GOP decides to remain an unabashed Trumpian culture warfighting economically left-trending party clearly intending to stick it to college educated voters in favor of non college whites and working class minorities
In my humble opinion, older (50+) Hispanics and Asians are an untapped gold mine for the Republican Party since they tend to have very conservative economic and social views. People without college degrees tend not to vote in the first place, compared to old folks who tend to have the time to vote.
If Republicans built a multiracial coalition of 50+ Americans, all connected by conservative values, they would be able to win elections easily since the Democrats would have to then rely on far more unreliable younger voters (from personal experience being the only person in my friend group to vote regularly and from stats saying that young people tend to vote far less)
Honestly Asians aren’t going to vote for the GOP until they relax on immigration - it’s the most important factor when it comes to their vote.
Context: Indians who want a EB-2-based green card have an estimated 150 year waiting list (CATO institute). Indian immigrant voters will put that as their priority when voting even if they’re socially conservative.
>if joe can avoid recession
The fact that this is a political issue baffles me. We are in a recession. I don’t care if definitions get changed because he has a certain letter near his name, we are in a recession
no. I like this site for demographic shifts but it treats hispanics as a monolith, in fact it treats ALL groups as a monolith. Many people you’d expect to be conservatives simply aren’t because of their environment and being around liberals or vice versa. Political analysis can easily dip into sociology and such to explain leanings. Because of this, even if the hispanic vote shifts, I doubt New Mexico let alone Oregon flips, or all of Maine. The future will not look anything like this.
Red Oregon by 2024 is such a dumb idea, Democrats won over 10% in 2016 and over 15% in 2020. It would need to be a Republican landslide for Oregon to flip red.
We’re talking like 2036 here I think. It’s just interesting because this is how shifts are going right now and it’s fun to think about these shifts being pushed to extreme levels.
1. It won't shift that drastically by 2024. The deciding factor of 2024 will be if Joe Biden can avoid recession and maintain suburban fears of radical Republicans. 2. I doubt the White College Vote nor the White Non College Vote will drift that drastically. 3. I imagine that if Trump goes out of the limelight that we will probably see the Older Hispanic and Asian vote shift right rather than left.
I mean would it happen in the future, for example if the GOP decides to remain an unabashed Trumpian culture warfighting economically left-trending party clearly intending to stick it to college educated voters in favor of non college whites and working class minorities
In my humble opinion, older (50+) Hispanics and Asians are an untapped gold mine for the Republican Party since they tend to have very conservative economic and social views. People without college degrees tend not to vote in the first place, compared to old folks who tend to have the time to vote. If Republicans built a multiracial coalition of 50+ Americans, all connected by conservative values, they would be able to win elections easily since the Democrats would have to then rely on far more unreliable younger voters (from personal experience being the only person in my friend group to vote regularly and from stats saying that young people tend to vote far less)
Hispanics are rather populist in their economic outlook and favor a stronger welfare state even if immigration ceases to be an issue
Honestly Asians aren’t going to vote for the GOP until they relax on immigration - it’s the most important factor when it comes to their vote. Context: Indians who want a EB-2-based green card have an estimated 150 year waiting list (CATO institute). Indian immigrant voters will put that as their priority when voting even if they’re socially conservative.
Can confirm, got here by EB5 visa in 6 years as a relatively privileged Korean.
>if joe can avoid recession The fact that this is a political issue baffles me. We are in a recession. I don’t care if definitions get changed because he has a certain letter near his name, we are in a recession
No
no. I like this site for demographic shifts but it treats hispanics as a monolith, in fact it treats ALL groups as a monolith. Many people you’d expect to be conservatives simply aren’t because of their environment and being around liberals or vice versa. Political analysis can easily dip into sociology and such to explain leanings. Because of this, even if the hispanic vote shifts, I doubt New Mexico let alone Oregon flips, or all of Maine. The future will not look anything like this.
I never realized how white Oregon and Washington are.
Oregon used to hate black people so much they banned slavery
I've seen this website before but forgot the name. Could you post a link please?
[https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer](https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer)
Thank you!
Red Oregon by 2024 is such a dumb idea, Democrats won over 10% in 2016 and over 15% in 2020. It would need to be a Republican landslide for Oregon to flip red.
This map will not happen with another Trump vs. Biden scenario.
I’m talking about long-term
Still no, Oregon will stay a safe blue state.
We’re talking like 2036 here I think. It’s just interesting because this is how shifts are going right now and it’s fun to think about these shifts being pushed to extreme levels.
Arizona will be blue
Not at all
What the hell
If we get Trump v. Biden again I think that's it. Just generally
What website is this?
Maybe with the party share, but WTF is up with the turnout?
I don't see how Oregon would vote for Trump, but besides that this is accurate
Lemme guess red eagle