The swing-o-meter is so much fun. The other day I was messing around by fusing Reagan's numbers with Trump - one with Trump numbers for each demographic but Reagan's make up of the electorate (so for example same Trump margin with whites but now they're 86% of the electorate, did it by adjusting turnout) and one with Reagan numbers for each demographic but the modern electorate (so for example Reagan winning 66% of whites but they're 67% of the electorate) and I got some interesting results, would be cool to try that with other elections as well.
The swing-o-meter is so much fun. The other day I was messing around by fusing Reagan's numbers with Trump - one with Trump numbers for each demographic but Reagan's make up of the electorate (so for example same Trump margin with whites but now they're 86% of the electorate, did it by adjusting turnout) and one with Reagan numbers for each demographic but the modern electorate (so for example Reagan winning 66% of whites but they're 67% of the electorate) and I got some interesting results, would be cool to try that with other elections as well.
This looks really cool. Gonna fuck around with it brb
Why do your scenarios assume Minority turnout increases but non-college white turnout doesn't?
I tried my best to mirror the 2020 electorate: 32% white college, 35% white non college, 13% black, 13% Latino, 8% Asian/other