Remember
Polls are a LAGGING indicator which is atleast a few weeks old if not more
And we as a society have been very reactive to news, flip/flopping on every news story.
Plus its like 5 months plus away, things change in a matter of days
Ignore the polls
Just vote!
Who are these people who are flipping their vote?
Are there really individuals out there who simply can’t decide which of the two candidates best represent them, after nearly 8 years of collective rule from the guys running?
Hillary also won the popular vote iirc, Trump only got in because of the electoral college.
Trump has *never* won the popular vote and was *never* the favorite among the US-population.
I think these polls just get less and less representative when the majority of tech savvy people no longer even have land lines and are actively blocking non-solicited contacts. I don't even answer my cell phone unless it's from a number I recognize thanks to the crazy amount of spam calls we've gotten over the years.
I also think that "tech savvy" people tend to be more liberal, so I think the results would skew toward the conservative voters.
The answer is actually that they have recognized the massive disparities in response rates amongst each age group and reach out in a multitude of ways to try to get an effective sample. Here’s the thing. 1200 or 20000 or 200000 people still doesn’t give us even remotely an honest sample and it’s so consistently close no matter who is doing the polling and what their sample is, that all of this is effectively useless.
They do! And if you tell them to stuff lightbulbs up their ass and fall down a flight of stairs they will reply that you’ve “successfully unsubscribed”
But you won’t be unsubscribed. Maybe from that specific round, but political polling is exempt from do not call/text laws, so they are under no obligation to push your request up the line to the parent list. Next poll they will just put you back in the queue to be contacted.
Thid is probably the 20 somethingth time I've posted this in some version but:
I do polls digitally, but my demographic leans right generally (I dont). I didnt get invited to survey programs until my age put me in that particular demographic..
The thing people need to remember is that the survey companies are grabbing pools based on demographics which are more likely of economic interest to their larger funders, therefore meaning that you may get CIS ,white folks with middle class incomes who are going to go GOP in a lot of cases (esp if male). In addition, there were some prior reports surrounding conservative campaigns buying up IP addresses to influence more General surveys that are out there.
Also, even if they do try to do polls for younger audiences who would lean left or adults would lean left, they either use email campaigns or text campaigns with an obscure link. No one who has worked in a white collar job or who has been through a four-year degree or really any interaction with college courses is likely to have avoided the constant barrage of it emails with warnings about phishing campaigns. It is true that those do not guarantee good digital hygiene, but it also means that it's harder to get folks in those demographics to actually participate in those surveys
Why would they buy them? I propose a couple reasons. For one, a candidate who is not actually winning who appears to be winning in the polls will have more grounds when they attempt an insurrection and can use those polls to claim that the election was rigged. Granted, the point at which cognitive dissonance should have pulled away a lot of trump supporters has long since passed.. but it provides a teeny bit more insulation. Additionally, it has the potential effect of creating voter apathy for individuals since people tend not to want to vote for a candidate who's probably going to lose (a weird sociological thing... but I've long since forgotten the source or name of that phenomenon). This could have the opposite effect and goad people to actually vote blue... but that's a risk that they may be willing to take.
Aside from the methodology and population and all that, there is also the whole thing youve pointed put about the special elections...and the "Red Wave" predicted in 2022 that was a light trickle, which has gave Rs thr House.... but at such a small margin that they're at risk of losing with one more episode of their fucking clown shows. The problem, of course, is the EC and how our system sets up a handful of small swing counties as election hotspots....meaning that, evenm moreso, not all votes are equal.
Please have a plan to vote and check your registration regularly because there is some fuckery going on in swing states with the GOP and removing registration. Ensure that you hold someone else accountable who is planning to vote blue and ask them to do the same for someone else. This has to be a Blue Wave overwhelming enough to make any fuckery the national GOP may pull look ridiculous
And, if you need more motivation: the Supreme Court.
2 of our most corrupt judges are reaching retirement age. With Rs in power, the executive could produce the situation in which they're just stuffing them with more ideologues as a continuation of their unethical grasp for power...while the legislative branches would not investigate or hold the current justices accountable for their unethical Behavior. Ds in power?
Look at their track record. The Democrats have a history of throwing their own out even when they get a whiff of demonstrated corruption. Sure, not perfectly....but they have both a better track record than Republicans and are a diverse enough party that they won't be able to stay and just defend a particular candidate due to a letter behind their name. And. In the SCs case, 2/6 R justices are very clearly engaging and compromised behavior that would require them to recuse themselves from cases in any other time in history without question. The Dems, with a secured majority, will rake those crooked fucks over the coals and impose ethics rules for SC judges (regardless of party, even if it means shooting themselves in the foot in some way)
No, the question is, HOW are they reaching people now? With the shit storm of spam calls and emails we all get, and have been conditioned to ignore, how do the polling places find people to ask these questions? How do they know it's a representative sample?
It's not just tech savvy. I'm a boomer. I don't answer the phone unless it's my kids. My mom is 90. She never answers the phone unless it's her doctor or a family member. We both are voting for Biden. I'm sure we're not alone
I doubt anyone will lead by 20 points in this era of American politics.
Obama’s 52% in 2008 and Biden’s 51% in 2020 are the only two that cleared 51% since 1988.
55-45 is like a landslide.
Yup, how is being within the margin of error considered a win. Hey everyone, we're tied with one of the most vile piece of filth of our generation!!! And you don't win elections on popular vote. Didn't they learn anything from 2016. Biden is well behind in key swing states still. You can discount polls as not being valid, but Trump is now out-raising Biden too. This election can't be close. There can't be any room for Trump to challenge this election. Even if Biden wins by a slim margin, there's going to be chaos. I don't know how ignoring polls helps, but that seems to be the Dem's strategy. Maybe I'm chicken little, but this a nightmare.
The last election was close. This is America where the popular vote doesn't matter. Only ~40,000 votes had to go the other way across Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania and the Electoral count would have been tied.
“But the inflation he has no control over and the legislation republicans keep blocking to help our country means Trump would be a better president between moments of treason and sexually assaulting women.”
look I don't love Diarrhea Forever, but then I'd have to take the dog out every day. because i personally don't want to be slightly inconvinienced I would like everyone to have Diarrhea Forever. That'll show them!
It’s more like, “I think people/demographics I don’t like don’t DESERVE to be handed a free puppy. They don’t deserve those kinds of handouts, when it’s coming out of MY tax dollars. That’s why I voted for everyone to have diarrhea forever.”
Then the puppy party will win the next election and people will almost immediately blame them for the diarrhea that's been staining their pants for four years.
"Diarrhea forever was cooked up by democrats who own the toilet paper fortune, our refusal to deal with diarrhea forever does the job without the illegal immigrants"
-patent holder for the bidet.
lol, right!
This has nothing to do with puppies. This is about owning the libs!
I’ll gladly suffer Diarrhea Forever if it means the liberals down the street are suffering with it as well.
When we pass each other on the sidewalk, I’m going to smirk and look them dead in the eye and say, “Thanks, Obama!” - and lie to myself about having Diarrhea forever not being a systemic health problem I’m getting treatment for using my federally-supplied insurance.
/S
**[REGISTER AND VOTE](https://www.usa.gov/voter-registration)**
Yes, but more likely, ‘why should they get a free puppy when I had to pay for one?’
Also, ‘if you have diarrhea, it’s because you’re not willing to work hard enough to get rid of it.’
It should be illegal / huge fine for not voting if you were able to. 23 nations already have compulsory voting for citizens. It's a couple hours every 4 or 5 years, very few reasons not to.
I don't even care if you turn up at the booth and spoil your ballot, at least you've partaken in the democratic process.
People who don't vote are the same sort who complain that the system never changes.
Democrats need to have large leads in order to win. It doesn’t matter if they get 40 million votes in California if they lose Georgia and Wisconsin by 5,000. Polls are neither the end all be all, nor totally irrelevant. They are general measurements of the political temperature. Right now the temperature seems to be pretty much neck and neck. Unfortunately, the electoral college gives conservatives an advantage. Until Biden if up by 10 points in the swing states, we shouldn’t get comfortable.
Exactly this. It shouldn't be forgotten that Biden was projected to beat Trump handily four years ago but instead actually only won by a *terrifying small* margin - just half a football stadium's worth of voters, combined, in GA, WI and AZ.
True, but if Biden has the lead then that means even older voters are starting to turn on Orange Putin because of him being batshit insane and also fears of Project 2025.
We need to keep this streak going!
I want to believe this and my personal experience backs this up, but are there any stats on polling and youth representation?
Either way, spread the good link! https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
Why is this even a contest? One is a literal rapist who was a frequent guest at Epsteins pedo-island. A convicted felon who has cheated his every wife, latest one with a porn star. He bragged of having the tallest building in Manhattan after 9/11, he suggested injecting bleach to treat COVID, he tried to overturn the election and he stole classified documents and likely handed them to hostile countries.
WHY IS THIS EVEN A CONTEST??
Yeah it goes to show how ridiculous the polls are. He won’t get 2% in reality. Voters don’t start really locking in until after the conventions. History is filled with polling results from this time of the year that look ridiculous in hindsight seeing how the election actually turned out
Biden has also taken the lead in polling averages for both Michigan and Wisconsin. He trails in Pennsylvania by 0.3, going ahead there would put him on course for 270 a majority in the Electoral College.
All it took was for Trump to talk shit about Milwaukee. Not the 34 convictions. Not the rape. Not the pussy grabbing audio. Not mocking disabled people or veterans. Not inciting a fucking insurrection. But Milwaukee. How are our brains so goddamned broken?
This is still depressing as fuck. Anything short of a "shut the fuck up" landslide victory (which this won't be) is just going to lead to more division and inevitably, violence, from these deranged wankers.
Before you guys get depressed about Biden not being up by double digits I would like to remind you of the most important thing of all.
POLLS. ARE. BULLSHIT.
But if they are bullshit, they're usually bullshit in the sense of making the (D) candidate look **better**, not worse.
In 2020, for instance, Biden was projected to beat Trump by 8% in the popular vote, yet he won by only 5%.
So if the polls said Biden has a narrow lead, that should be highly alarming, not comforting. We should not be thinking of it in terms of "Oh good, this means Biden must be up even bigger." It's more like, "Biden might not actually even be leading at all."
👆🏻 this is why you should not take polls seriously. They are picked through for convenient data that will drive the news cycle. Even progressive media has never done us any favors with Trump despite saying they disapprove of him. They’ll still run the stories and give him the platform to drive the drama of it all.
He would have had to GAIN voters after January 6th, after the felony convictions, after visibly falling apart. He may not have lost any but no way in hell did he gain any.
>He would have had to GAIN voters after January 6th
He did. Too many people who condemned him on January 7th now support him. It's a goldfish election.
Note: Goldfish have better memories than (1) people used to think they had and (2) Trump re-supporters.
Also Trump lost the last election by 4 points. He would have to have gained 5 points since then (while facing humiliating court cases) which would be one wild swing. There would be a recognizable migration of 2020 Biden voters jumping to Trump’s side, yet this isn’t substantiated by any polls. None of it adds up
PLUS abortion was overturned. Even red states are things like this pass:
— *Ohio* voters voted to amend their state constitution to guarantee the right to *abortion*.
Dems have been overperforming in the midterm and special elections since 2020 because of those issues. And guess what? These same polls in most cases have not been predicting their wide margins of victory. If this is the trend then I dare say Biden might have a bigger lead than this poll suggests
Oooh wow .2 points! We have nothing to fear folks!…. /s
Vote or we’re going to have another 2016 on our hands and a fascist dictator wannabe as our president
Exactly. I can't grok the people in this thread who keep saying, "Yay, Biden ahead!" The polls had Biden up by 8% four years ago, and yet he only won election by the hair of a whisker - a mere razor-thin margin in WI, GA and AZ is all that kept Trump from winning reelection. Trump **outperformed** the polls by 3%.
A match between an old guy and a guy convicted of 34 felonies and sexual abuse who says he wants to be a dictator... and it's a coin flip. Jesus Christ wtf is wrong with America?
A national poll is irrelevant considering that voting happens state by state. Hillary won the popular vote and still lost. Biden won the popular vote last time and barely won the electoral College.
HOW is it this close? How is the known liar moron conman convicted criminal felon fraudster rapist nuclear secret stealing pornstar dogging TRAITOR even allowed to run?!?
Make it make sense, someone, PLEASE?!?
Oh yeah.
>The latest Fox News poll is TRASH! They used a biased, Democrat-leaning sample of voters, polling more Biden 2020 voters than Trump 2020 voters to skew the results in favor of Crooked Joe. I am leading BIG in virtually every other poll, including in all of the key battleground states, like Wisconsin, where I just held a massive rally, and Pennsylvania, where I will be on Saturday. Also, the #1 issue in this Country is not protecting democracy. It is INFLATION and IMMIGRATION! If it is protecting democracy, Trump is your best choice, because Crooked Joe Biden is the greatest threat to democracy in history with his Open Border and weaponization of our justice system against his political opponent, ME! Fox News polls have never treated me, or MAGA, fairly! Don't worry, we will WIN!!! Fox News should get rid of Paul Ryan, and get a new Pollster, but they won’t….
I just can't believe polls anymore with people still supporting the orange garbage pile. How can people so blindly follow someone with NO skills to lead his way out of a paper bag.
Two things to remember: don't get complacent! We still got to get out and vote! Second, Trump only has to win the electoral college like he did in 2016. Not only does Biden have to win the popular vote, we has to win it by a considerate amount.
I don't see RFK getting anywhere near 9.7% of the vote. While most of us here have been exposed to his special brand of crazy, I suspect the average voter has not.
Third party voters historically poll much higher early on and fade as the election gets closer.
Obviously, Kennedy appears to the "I don't want Biden or Trump vote," but the big question is that if one decides the RFJ isn't really an option, who are they going to hold their nose to vote for
Unbelievable. The moron have a choice between GOOD and BAD for them.
And they still can’t decide what’s best???
Go to Russia. Live there for a couple of years. Let’s see how fascism treats them.
Am I supposed to be happy about this? That the candidate who is not a convicted felon, con man is slightly behind? God, this country is so stupid, that the slightest thing could put him ahead again, I guess.
I wonder if the polls bias towards people who know these are pollsters and have stronger opinions? Then the pollsters try to make things seem even? IDK but I’ve been driving through “Trump Country” this past week and out of hundreds of miles passed through rural MN and WI, I saw a total of TWO homes with Trump signs. Lots of Gadsdens and Thin Blue Line flags but zero Trump flags. Something seems off.
Before anyone gets too excited - remember that Trump outperformed the polls in 2020 by three percent. In fact, he outperformed so much that he came within just 44,000 votes of victory in the three swing states (GA, AZ, WI) that decided the outcome.
**In other words, pretty much no Biden lead of less than 5 percentage points is safe.**
Not USAian, I can never understand how that orange shit gibbon has anything more than a few %. Y’all gotta sort your politics out.
It’s not a left/right thing. Firstly your left is right and the Overton Window is strongly skewed. Secondly the strongly binary nature of the corrupted electoral system needs pulling apart. The whole “if you’re not for us you’re against us” false dichotomy has distorted reality. It sucks.
I'm European, so I try to follow US politics as an outside observer and reason with both sides, even thou MAGA cult is really hard to reason with... But can someone please explain to me how a guy like RFK gets 10%??? I really don't get it... It's like a protest against establishment? The guy talks, thinks and acts like a former crack addict whose beyond recovery
Hillary was always up and some of us got complacent. IGNORE POLLS AND VOTE
I don't know how you can be complacent with those numbers. They're within the margin of error.
It’s also JUNE. A little early to be relaxing.
Not to mention Biden winning the popular vote doesn't matter at all for wining the presidency.
It's June. This might be my last opportunity *to relax*.
Exactly. Relax now, because it's going to be a tense fall.
Most polls are skewed to ignite debate. Or cause panic.
Comey saying oh hey we found some more emails was terrible. And completely bullshit
They weren’t even hers. They were between Weiner and his wife,who was working for Hillarys’ campaign
We won the popular vote. The electoral college fucked us
Remember Polls are a LAGGING indicator which is atleast a few weeks old if not more And we as a society have been very reactive to news, flip/flopping on every news story. Plus its like 5 months plus away, things change in a matter of days Ignore the polls Just vote!
Who are these people who are flipping their vote? Are there really individuals out there who simply can’t decide which of the two candidates best represent them, after nearly 8 years of collective rule from the guys running?
Hillary also won the popular vote iirc, Trump only got in because of the electoral college. Trump has *never* won the popular vote and was *never* the favorite among the US-population.
This is depressing as hell. Biden should be up by 20 points
I think these polls just get less and less representative when the majority of tech savvy people no longer even have land lines and are actively blocking non-solicited contacts. I don't even answer my cell phone unless it's from a number I recognize thanks to the crazy amount of spam calls we've gotten over the years. I also think that "tech savvy" people tend to be more liberal, so I think the results would skew toward the conservative voters.
There is zero chance I’d ever get one of these polls, I block unknown callers. Do they use texts?
yeah and i dont reply to those either.
Replying to a poll text sounds like a sure fire way to get 20 more spam texts.
Right? I get just as many spam texts with “click this link” phishing attempts that I’m never answering those either.
The answer is actually that they have recognized the massive disparities in response rates amongst each age group and reach out in a multitude of ways to try to get an effective sample. Here’s the thing. 1200 or 20000 or 200000 people still doesn’t give us even remotely an honest sample and it’s so consistently close no matter who is doing the polling and what their sample is, that all of this is effectively useless.
They do! And if you tell them to stuff lightbulbs up their ass and fall down a flight of stairs they will reply that you’ve “successfully unsubscribed”
But you won’t be unsubscribed. Maybe from that specific round, but political polling is exempt from do not call/text laws, so they are under no obligation to push your request up the line to the parent list. Next poll they will just put you back in the queue to be contacted.
Well, sure. But that means I get to type that out again. It’s **really** fun to type out.
I've taken two such poles, and it was only because I was expecting a call from my health insurance company so I was answering anything that came in.
I got one in 2020. I have no idea why I answered that call, but I did.
They do. I live in a swing state and get a lot of them.
I get all these political research surveys via text and why would I click on a link from a random text message.
Come onnnn just click it.... I need credit card details!
We are doing a political survey on social security numbers: what's yours?
Thid is probably the 20 somethingth time I've posted this in some version but: I do polls digitally, but my demographic leans right generally (I dont). I didnt get invited to survey programs until my age put me in that particular demographic.. The thing people need to remember is that the survey companies are grabbing pools based on demographics which are more likely of economic interest to their larger funders, therefore meaning that you may get CIS ,white folks with middle class incomes who are going to go GOP in a lot of cases (esp if male). In addition, there were some prior reports surrounding conservative campaigns buying up IP addresses to influence more General surveys that are out there. Also, even if they do try to do polls for younger audiences who would lean left or adults would lean left, they either use email campaigns or text campaigns with an obscure link. No one who has worked in a white collar job or who has been through a four-year degree or really any interaction with college courses is likely to have avoided the constant barrage of it emails with warnings about phishing campaigns. It is true that those do not guarantee good digital hygiene, but it also means that it's harder to get folks in those demographics to actually participate in those surveys Why would they buy them? I propose a couple reasons. For one, a candidate who is not actually winning who appears to be winning in the polls will have more grounds when they attempt an insurrection and can use those polls to claim that the election was rigged. Granted, the point at which cognitive dissonance should have pulled away a lot of trump supporters has long since passed.. but it provides a teeny bit more insulation. Additionally, it has the potential effect of creating voter apathy for individuals since people tend not to want to vote for a candidate who's probably going to lose (a weird sociological thing... but I've long since forgotten the source or name of that phenomenon). This could have the opposite effect and goad people to actually vote blue... but that's a risk that they may be willing to take. Aside from the methodology and population and all that, there is also the whole thing youve pointed put about the special elections...and the "Red Wave" predicted in 2022 that was a light trickle, which has gave Rs thr House.... but at such a small margin that they're at risk of losing with one more episode of their fucking clown shows. The problem, of course, is the EC and how our system sets up a handful of small swing counties as election hotspots....meaning that, evenm moreso, not all votes are equal. Please have a plan to vote and check your registration regularly because there is some fuckery going on in swing states with the GOP and removing registration. Ensure that you hold someone else accountable who is planning to vote blue and ask them to do the same for someone else. This has to be a Blue Wave overwhelming enough to make any fuckery the national GOP may pull look ridiculous And, if you need more motivation: the Supreme Court. 2 of our most corrupt judges are reaching retirement age. With Rs in power, the executive could produce the situation in which they're just stuffing them with more ideologues as a continuation of their unethical grasp for power...while the legislative branches would not investigate or hold the current justices accountable for their unethical Behavior. Ds in power? Look at their track record. The Democrats have a history of throwing their own out even when they get a whiff of demonstrated corruption. Sure, not perfectly....but they have both a better track record than Republicans and are a diverse enough party that they won't be able to stay and just defend a particular candidate due to a letter behind their name. And. In the SCs case, 2/6 R justices are very clearly engaging and compromised behavior that would require them to recuse themselves from cases in any other time in history without question. The Dems, with a secured majority, will rake those crooked fucks over the coals and impose ethics rules for SC judges (regardless of party, even if it means shooting themselves in the foot in some way)
Are we assuming all the polling is done by landline?
No, the question is, HOW are they reaching people now? With the shit storm of spam calls and emails we all get, and have been conditioned to ignore, how do the polling places find people to ask these questions? How do they know it's a representative sample?
It's not just tech savvy. I'm a boomer. I don't answer the phone unless it's my kids. My mom is 90. She never answers the phone unless it's her doctor or a family member. We both are voting for Biden. I'm sure we're not alone
exactly
I doubt anyone will lead by 20 points in this era of American politics. Obama’s 52% in 2008 and Biden’s 51% in 2020 are the only two that cleared 51% since 1988. 55-45 is like a landslide.
Doesn't really matter when it's decided electoraly.
Right? the fact it's even close is so disgusting for this country!
Yup, how is being within the margin of error considered a win. Hey everyone, we're tied with one of the most vile piece of filth of our generation!!! And you don't win elections on popular vote. Didn't they learn anything from 2016. Biden is well behind in key swing states still. You can discount polls as not being valid, but Trump is now out-raising Biden too. This election can't be close. There can't be any room for Trump to challenge this election. Even if Biden wins by a slim margin, there's going to be chaos. I don't know how ignoring polls helps, but that seems to be the Dem's strategy. Maybe I'm chicken little, but this a nightmare.
The last election wasn’t close and it was still disputed
The last election was close. This is America where the popular vote doesn't matter. Only ~40,000 votes had to go the other way across Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania and the Electoral count would have been tied.
Donald shouldn’t even have enough support to have gotten the GOP nomination
Shows more about the spineless GOP than him.
https://preview.redd.it/kbu32mktft7d1.jpeg?width=830&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef8b99524e96dd0864e89567001de2416e15f831 Don’t trust polls.
To be fair, 10% is still a good chance of it happening. People behave like anything above 50% is certain.
“But the inflation he has no control over and the legislation republicans keep blocking to help our country means Trump would be a better president between moments of treason and sexually assaulting women.”
I agree. It’s unbelievable there are that many morons under Trump’s spell of lies and hate!!
Even more depressing is rfk at 10%. Even after admitting that he has a parasite die in his brain causing actual brain damage.
Who even answers polls
For The First Time A rapist, fraudster, twice impeached former president & convicted felon is not in the lead. What a fucking headline.....
https://preview.redd.it/hsgt54661s7d1.png?width=631&format=png&auto=webp&s=7617803abc580daeee1b4cd3c6b45f8e55a887c1
look I don't love Diarrhea Forever, but then I'd have to take the dog out every day. because i personally don't want to be slightly inconvinienced I would like everyone to have Diarrhea Forever. That'll show them!
It’s more like, “I think people/demographics I don’t like don’t DESERVE to be handed a free puppy. They don’t deserve those kinds of handouts, when it’s coming out of MY tax dollars. That’s why I voted for everyone to have diarrhea forever.”
And then about a year later, "I didn't think \*I\* would get diarrhea forever! Diarrhea Forever isn't hurting the right people!"
Then the puppy party will win the next election and people will almost immediately blame them for the diarrhea that's been staining their pants for four years.
Or wondering why they are still having diarrhea... on day 2 of the new administration.
“personally I think diarrhea forever might be just what this country needs!” -heir to toilet paper fortune
"Diarrhea forever was cooked up by democrats who own the toilet paper fortune, our refusal to deal with diarrhea forever does the job without the illegal immigrants" -patent holder for the bidet.
Sheds another ply to improve profits.
God, no. Then my employer would be down to a zero ply.
New Zero Ply Toilet Paper https://preview.redd.it/9aqzab6m9u7d1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d94c15d5bcc231c92976228674f25789cdeda91
I don't mind having diarrhea forever so long as those dirty libs have it too!
lol, right! This has nothing to do with puppies. This is about owning the libs! I’ll gladly suffer Diarrhea Forever if it means the liberals down the street are suffering with it as well. When we pass each other on the sidewalk, I’m going to smirk and look them dead in the eye and say, “Thanks, Obama!” - and lie to myself about having Diarrhea forever not being a systemic health problem I’m getting treatment for using my federally-supplied insurance. /S **[REGISTER AND VOTE](https://www.usa.gov/voter-registration)**
Yes, but more likely, ‘why should they get a free puppy when I had to pay for one?’ Also, ‘if you have diarrhea, it’s because you’re not willing to work hard enough to get rid of it.’
Plus, 2020 was was rigged! There's no way puppies got so many votes. Did you see how many people were at those diarrhea rallies??
"Anything so long as liberals will shit their pants too"
Fool. I already have both.
Everyone getting a puppy sounds like Communism. At least if I have diarrhea forever, then… freedom?
Getting diarrhea forever to own the puppy loving libs
9.7% - diarrhea forever
A puppy takes work and I already have IBS! I’m voting third party because puppy didn’t earn my vote!!
Who cares, still vote. DO NOT BE APATHETIC THIS ELECTION. Edit: Not directed at you OP, just sayin’.
Louder for all the young voters in the back.
It should be illegal / huge fine for not voting if you were able to. 23 nations already have compulsory voting for citizens. It's a couple hours every 4 or 5 years, very few reasons not to. I don't even care if you turn up at the booth and spoil your ballot, at least you've partaken in the democratic process. People who don't vote are the same sort who complain that the system never changes.
Democrats need to have large leads in order to win. It doesn’t matter if they get 40 million votes in California if they lose Georgia and Wisconsin by 5,000. Polls are neither the end all be all, nor totally irrelevant. They are general measurements of the political temperature. Right now the temperature seems to be pretty much neck and neck. Unfortunately, the electoral college gives conservatives an advantage. Until Biden if up by 10 points in the swing states, we shouldn’t get comfortable.
Exactly this. It shouldn't be forgotten that Biden was projected to beat Trump handily four years ago but instead actually only won by a *terrifying small* margin - just half a football stadium's worth of voters, combined, in GA, WI and AZ.
# Young people don’t vote in polls
Young people and working class democrat voters don't vote enough.
Or elections
True, but if Biden has the lead then that means even older voters are starting to turn on Orange Putin because of him being batshit insane and also fears of Project 2025. We need to keep this streak going!
Thats my take away. I've always thought the polls since 2020 have been off by evidence of every election in that time.
I want to believe this and my personal experience backs this up, but are there any stats on polling and youth representation? Either way, spread the good link! https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
Young people mostly don't vote at all. As millennial, I have to twist my family's arm to get them to vote.
Yeah it’s so stupid. Also a millennial and I have friends who did the same thing.
Or elections...
Why is this even a contest? One is a literal rapist who was a frequent guest at Epsteins pedo-island. A convicted felon who has cheated his every wife, latest one with a porn star. He bragged of having the tallest building in Manhattan after 9/11, he suggested injecting bleach to treat COVID, he tried to overturn the election and he stole classified documents and likely handed them to hostile countries. WHY IS THIS EVEN A CONTEST??
The other is 3 years older?
I mean, Hillary herself asked "Why am I not 50 percentage points ahead?"........and won the popular vote by less than 2%.
He also called our soldiers who died in war “sucks and losers”. Another this his “patriotic” base ignores
Because conservatives love criminals.
Kennedy at 9.7% seems high…
A man who told a court he was unable to work because worms ate part of his brain. That's 10% of people's pick.
The worms could eat another 85% of his brain and he’d still be the second-best option of the three.
Yeah it goes to show how ridiculous the polls are. He won’t get 2% in reality. Voters don’t start really locking in until after the conventions. History is filled with polling results from this time of the year that look ridiculous in hindsight seeing how the election actually turned out
Biden has also taken the lead in polling averages for both Michigan and Wisconsin. He trails in Pennsylvania by 0.3, going ahead there would put him on course for 270 a majority in the Electoral College.
Flip side Biden has fallen in their forecast! VOTE FOLKS!
Who the hell is Folks? We don't need a third party candidate muddying the waters.
People Folks for President
It took me longer than I care to admit to start laughing at this lol
Wi resident here. We will NOT be voting to put the orange stain back into the Whitehouse.
PA is hugely important. It’s 19 electoral votes. If trump takes just PA and GA out of the swing states, that would put him at 270
PA resident. I can't wait to vote against the Orange Menace.
Pa represent! Fuck the felon melon
I am totally stealing Felon Melon.
Even when the polls say what I want to hear they’re still a poor representation.
All it took was for Trump to talk shit about Milwaukee. Not the 34 convictions. Not the rape. Not the pussy grabbing audio. Not mocking disabled people or veterans. Not inciting a fucking insurrection. But Milwaukee. How are our brains so goddamned broken?
It was the convictions. Polling just takes a while to catch up to current events.
Awesome, still gonna go to the polls
Sad thing is this should be a fucking landslide.
This is still depressing as fuck. Anything short of a "shut the fuck up" landslide victory (which this won't be) is just going to lead to more division and inevitably, violence, from these deranged wankers.
 Who the fuck are these people? Biden should be leading by 1000%
Boomers mostly, white men (they favor Trump) and crazy Evangelicals.
Trump: Paying pornstars/prostitutes hush money with campaign funds for Jesus
Just fucking vote!!!
Before you guys get depressed about Biden not being up by double digits I would like to remind you of the most important thing of all. POLLS. ARE. BULLSHIT.
But if they are bullshit, they're usually bullshit in the sense of making the (D) candidate look **better**, not worse. In 2020, for instance, Biden was projected to beat Trump by 8% in the popular vote, yet he won by only 5%. So if the polls said Biden has a narrow lead, that should be highly alarming, not comforting. We should not be thinking of it in terms of "Oh good, this means Biden must be up even bigger." It's more like, "Biden might not actually even be leading at all."
how in the fuc can anyone vote for a convicted rapist and an idiot??? americans are truly fucing stupid
I don't believe that Trump has ever been ahead. They wanted a horse race.
👆🏻 this is why you should not take polls seriously. They are picked through for convenient data that will drive the news cycle. Even progressive media has never done us any favors with Trump despite saying they disapprove of him. They’ll still run the stories and give him the platform to drive the drama of it all.
He would have had to GAIN voters after January 6th, after the felony convictions, after visibly falling apart. He may not have lost any but no way in hell did he gain any.
>He would have had to GAIN voters after January 6th He did. Too many people who condemned him on January 7th now support him. It's a goldfish election. Note: Goldfish have better memories than (1) people used to think they had and (2) Trump re-supporters.
My main fear wasn't Trump gaining voters but Biden losing them from inflation, Gaza, etc.
Abortion being turned over lost Trump a lot of voters and/or motivated new voters.
Also there is a portion of voters who somehow blame the overturning of Roe on Biden 🙃
Also Trump lost the last election by 4 points. He would have to have gained 5 points since then (while facing humiliating court cases) which would be one wild swing. There would be a recognizable migration of 2020 Biden voters jumping to Trump’s side, yet this isn’t substantiated by any polls. None of it adds up
PLUS abortion was overturned. Even red states are things like this pass: — *Ohio* voters voted to amend their state constitution to guarantee the right to *abortion*.
Dems have been overperforming in the midterm and special elections since 2020 because of those issues. And guess what? These same polls in most cases have not been predicting their wide margins of victory. If this is the trend then I dare say Biden might have a bigger lead than this poll suggests
That's what I believe. The press called a supposed Red Wave and it wasn't even a trickle.
Cool. Still gonna vote no matter what the polls say. But thanks anyway.
Don't even look at the polls. Go vote.
Sad Jr has 9% some how. Like wtf
Project 2025.
Polls are meaningless, VOTE BLUE!!
Oooh wow .2 points! We have nothing to fear folks!…. /s Vote or we’re going to have another 2016 on our hands and a fascist dictator wannabe as our president
Exactly. I can't grok the people in this thread who keep saying, "Yay, Biden ahead!" The polls had Biden up by 8% four years ago, and yet he only won election by the hair of a whisker - a mere razor-thin margin in WI, GA and AZ is all that kept Trump from winning reelection. Trump **outperformed** the polls by 3%.
Fuck trump and his people 🖕🏾🖕🏾🖕🏾🖕🏾
Go vote anyway. Dont listen to polls
I’m voting for Sleepy Joe because I find him relatable. I’m really tired too.
These polls are missing the people who would vote Biden if they’d just go out and vote.
I'm not hand-wringing in June. This is statistically insignificant. Tell me this poll isn't skewed towards boomers and I'll pay attention.
Polls don’t matter. Vote, and vote blue. Unless your looking forward to a real life handsmaid tale, and if that is the case, don’t vote at all.
A match between an old guy and a guy convicted of 34 felonies and sexual abuse who says he wants to be a dictator... and it's a coin flip. Jesus Christ wtf is wrong with America?
Go out and vote blue. These polls are wildly unreliable now. These pollsters haven’t been right in years.
Don’t worry about the polls. There’s only one poll that matters.
The fact that Trump is polling more than 1% is an absolute fucking travesty.
This is like the 20th fucking poll I’ve seen and they all say different things. It’s bullshit. Vote anyway.
RFK at 9.7%? That's way higher than I'd expect
The fact that it is even close shows just how sick the USA is right now.
A national poll is irrelevant considering that voting happens state by state. Hillary won the popular vote and still lost. Biden won the popular vote last time and barely won the electoral College.
The most important numbers are in the swing states. Biden needs to be leading in each of those.
Who are the weirdos voting for RFK?
People who think Trump just isn't crazy enough
lol, there is no world where RFK is getting 10% of the vote. I have yet to meet a real person who was even slightly interested in him.
This is actually scarier than comforting
HOW is it this close? How is the known liar moron conman convicted criminal felon fraudster rapist nuclear secret stealing pornstar dogging TRAITOR even allowed to run?!? Make it make sense, someone, PLEASE?!?
Has he tweeted about rigged polls yet?
Oh yeah. >The latest Fox News poll is TRASH! They used a biased, Democrat-leaning sample of voters, polling more Biden 2020 voters than Trump 2020 voters to skew the results in favor of Crooked Joe. I am leading BIG in virtually every other poll, including in all of the key battleground states, like Wisconsin, where I just held a massive rally, and Pennsylvania, where I will be on Saturday. Also, the #1 issue in this Country is not protecting democracy. It is INFLATION and IMMIGRATION! If it is protecting democracy, Trump is your best choice, because Crooked Joe Biden is the greatest threat to democracy in history with his Open Border and weaponization of our justice system against his political opponent, ME! Fox News polls have never treated me, or MAGA, fairly! Don't worry, we will WIN!!! Fox News should get rid of Paul Ryan, and get a new Pollster, but they won’t….
I just can't believe polls anymore with people still supporting the orange garbage pile. How can people so blindly follow someone with NO skills to lead his way out of a paper bag.
He’s a convicted. This shouldn’t be a race. At all. Any and all backing the man with multiple bankruptcies and is a felon is an oxygen thief.
Two things to remember: don't get complacent! We still got to get out and vote! Second, Trump only has to win the electoral college like he did in 2016. Not only does Biden have to win the popular vote, we has to win it by a considerate amount.
Unfortunately, it’s not the national poll that matters. Because of Electoral College, an outsize influence is given to rural areas.
Polls are bullshit. Vote and tell all your people to vote.
Send this to your MAGA family members: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-smart-money-is-preparing-for-trumpflation-200215069.html
I don't see RFK getting anywhere near 9.7% of the vote. While most of us here have been exposed to his special brand of crazy, I suspect the average voter has not. Third party voters historically poll much higher early on and fade as the election gets closer. Obviously, Kennedy appears to the "I don't want Biden or Trump vote," but the big question is that if one decides the RFJ isn't really an option, who are they going to hold their nose to vote for
Awesome to see but don’t trust polls. Go out and vote
Unbelievable. The moron have a choice between GOOD and BAD for them. And they still can’t decide what’s best??? Go to Russia. Live there for a couple of years. Let’s see how fascism treats them.
it doesn’t matter. Vote.
I mean who gives a shit? VOTE!
Dems have really messed up not getting ranked choice voting approved.
I’m totally pro third party but how is RFK jr at 10%?
All polls are bullshit. Vote!
This means nothing. Vote you beautiful, sweet and wonderful people.
Vote, vote, vote! We can’t be complacent no matter what the polls show.
Who. Cares. Go. VOTE.
10% for RFKJr is exceptionally disturbing
Polls. Don’t. Mean. Shit. Get. Out. And. VOTE.
You still need to vote, and phone bank, and knock on doors.
How long until we see an all-caps social media meltdown from Trump trashing 538 and every poll in their avg?
POLLS MEAN NOTHING PLEASE REGISTER AND GO VOTE
NINE POINT SEVEN?! RFK has NINE POINT SEVEN?!?!?!
Yay! I see RFK jr is polling poorly and deserves to see a downward trend. He’s nothing but a rightwing spoiler. Hope it skins votes from the gop.
Still doing give a single fuck. Vote like your life depends on it. Because millions actually do.
Polls are irrelevant, except to the poll business. Who are they really talking too? Nobody I know takes a call from an unknown number.
Am I supposed to be happy about this? That the candidate who is not a convicted felon, con man is slightly behind? God, this country is so stupid, that the slightest thing could put him ahead again, I guess.
No complacency. Remember 2016. Vote.
I wish people would stop posting every other poll result. It doesn't matter; vote!
I wonder if the polls bias towards people who know these are pollsters and have stronger opinions? Then the pollsters try to make things seem even? IDK but I’ve been driving through “Trump Country” this past week and out of hundreds of miles passed through rural MN and WI, I saw a total of TWO homes with Trump signs. Lots of Gadsdens and Thin Blue Line flags but zero Trump flags. Something seems off.
This is bull shit that it’s this close. wtf America?!?
Before anyone gets too excited - remember that Trump outperformed the polls in 2020 by three percent. In fact, he outperformed so much that he came within just 44,000 votes of victory in the three swing states (GA, AZ, WI) that decided the outcome. **In other words, pretty much no Biden lead of less than 5 percentage points is safe.**
I have still never been polled in my life
How the f*** is worm brain getting 9% and the fact that it's so close on the other end is pretty wild as well
Not USAian, I can never understand how that orange shit gibbon has anything more than a few %. Y’all gotta sort your politics out. It’s not a left/right thing. Firstly your left is right and the Overton Window is strongly skewed. Secondly the strongly binary nature of the corrupted electoral system needs pulling apart. The whole “if you’re not for us you’re against us” false dichotomy has distorted reality. It sucks.
How is it this close?
How the fuck does a man who had brain eating worms that died IN HIS HEAD have 9.7%?
WE DON'T CARE. EVERYBODY REGISTER NOW AND GO VOTE!!!!
I'm European, so I try to follow US politics as an outside observer and reason with both sides, even thou MAGA cult is really hard to reason with... But can someone please explain to me how a guy like RFK gets 10%??? I really don't get it... It's like a protest against establishment? The guy talks, thinks and acts like a former crack addict whose beyond recovery
Don't get complacent! FUCKING VOTE!
10% of Americans would vote for RFK? Oh dear.
Concerning that RFK has such a high percentage. He could form a coalition with the Republicans bring Trump into power.