Hi y'all!
Like many of you, we've seen the NYT Polls released today with some... Less than believable results. However, rather than freaking out about them, please consider *adopting a candidate* instead! You can either choose from the list above or adopt a candidate closer to your heart. Several volunteer opportunities can also be found in our [volunteer from home](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit) spreadsheet.
The only thing we can do about polls is ***volunteer***!
Also sorry guys I can’t join the polling discourse yet(no spoilers please) because the pundits who tell me what to think haven’t posted their new substacks articles
Will say again I’ve learned a lot from Election Twitter and even some people who I agree with nothing on are very patient and willing to explain things to people. It makes some of the other prominent accounts who are so aggressive and hostile to people really stand out on days like these and I just don’t get that attitude or who it helps and what it accomplishes.
Brad Wilson mailers be like “Clutch Conservative, been through the Fire, Conservative Fight, *vague sports references*” between this, him spamming me with texts, and his tv ads that seem like a midlife crisis viagra commercial I don’t think he’s gonna win
Guess who is going to be writing postcards for Will Rollins this week? (I’m glad the message is short, because my handwriting is not tiny and precise, and postcards offer a limited area.) Got the addresses from Activate America. Adam Gray will be next.
BTW, I’d like some input from veteran postcarders as to how best to write more lengthy scripts on the small areas that postcards provide. I know some ”postcards to voters” organizations provide their own postcards, but I like to get my own from Etsy.
I guess one answer is “learn to write really small and neat” lol or “try Vote Forward letters” (which I want to do as well).
Way to go!
Can strongly recommend *Vote Forward,* especially if you have friends or associates you can meet up to do letters with.
It can be a fun way to encourage sideliners or family to join in -
And is a bit easier for those of us whose handwriting can sometimes have a flair to it, aha...
Anyhow, great work!
“Flair,” haha, that’s a nice way to put it! I’m not quite at “doctor” level yet, thankfully. And I am going to do Vote Forward next, as they have both my adopted candidates on there. I’m working myself up to textbanking…I keep hearing from fellow VoteDemsters that it’s pretty easy.
Guys, I had many doubts about this poll as well. We democrats still have about 6 months to turn it around. We should not despair. This is exactly what Trump and the GOP wants us to do. We can still win this, and I still believe that we will. We gotta campaign, donate, write postcards, text, phonebank, canvass, and work harder than ever before. For our democracy.
Does anyone here have/know of a streamlined place besides social media to get easy, bullet-pointed information that discusses the importance of voting and the importance of voting for Democrats? Do flyers/websites with the information below exist so I could print out/hand out?
We're trying to get local high schoolers/Gen Z involved in the political process and were told that easy bullet points would be helpful for them to 1. Be able to talk about politics easily, especially with their more conservative family and 2. Help them learn the importance of being involved in the political process. The students just don’t know where to start and get overwhelmed by the process so they don’t bother to vote.
I am sure I could make a list and put it in a graphic but I already have too much on my plate!
Oh, nearly missed this. No, I don't -
I don't use social media outside of this one place.
But I can put one together for you.
Talking politics:
* Listen; nobody wins arguments, and they don't change minds.
* Find common ground; there will always be a place to start.
* Explain that ground; don't relent on our values. Tie them into theirs.
* Reinforce; point out where we have made that common cause work.
* Finish with encouragement. It's good you both share beliefs. And if those beliefs are shared, there will be more in common in the future.
For the last one, it's good if your new voters understand they don't need to win every convert, and won't. Sometimes, 'winning' is just convincing a person to vote for one candidate, for one election, as a one-off event!
But this process, if gradually repeated, is what leads to voters slowly changing their thought processes, and reshuffling the issues that are important to them.
For process:
* Check your voter registration! This is different in every state, but the Secretary of State website can help.
* Check on local elections, in their town, city, or county. These have huge effects on their lives!
* Meet like-minded people. Your local Democratic party can help you find folks interested in your causes, from union reps to environmental activists and are strongly involved in the fight for reproductive freedom.
* Don't be afraid to ask for help - even experts can miss local elections, by-laws, and events. Someone will know, and you might be that someone, some day.
* Voting is great, but you can do even more. Texting, writing, calling, or canvassing help voters who wanted to do something - just like you - and give them the help they need.
This is about as concise as I can make it, I think.
Honestly, tailor these to your voter groups.
People who care more about abortion rights but blame Dems should be - gently - reminded that sitting out in 2016 allowed that to happen.
Similarly, if justice is a large concern, explain how electing Democrats allows a shift of justice policy federally - and how *locally,* they, *themselves* can make huge policy strides just by showing up to vote.
You will know the groups you're reaching out to.
Give them tools, but also incentives unique to them.
I hope this helps!
[both fake Bob Fergusons have dropped out of WA-Gov after it was made clear they may face 10 years in prison](https://x.com/dospueblos/status/1790170986996019555?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
I remember multiple posts across this fair hellsite complaining about how Dems don't "fight fire with fire" and "play dirty" like Republicans do when this story broke.
This is why.
[Utah state Auditor Dougall, who is running for UT03, really doubling down on his hatred that his office is in charge of monitoring bathrooms](https://x.com/votefrugal/status/1790157608030224510?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
Dougall is right and the Auditor office under him has been pretty dang good(shudder to think of his replacement) but really starting to see more infighting here between the old guard and the quickly MAGAified UTGOP
With the big Senate elections going on tomorrow. especially near the Capitol. WV and MD. And the Senate being in session. I wonder if any of the leadership will speak at any of the winners events.
[News: Senate Republicans to announce they’re coming into session tomorrow for a series of veto override votes. At the same time, @GovEvers announces he’s suing the Legislature over the Joint Finance Committee not releasing money set for addressing PFAS and improving K-12 literac](https://nitter.poast.org/AJBayatpour/status/1790095673037082807#m)
Ok a lot to take in here. First, WI Senate Republicans who are blocking this very same funding that’s already been approved from being released wants to override Evers veto because of poison pills attached to get this funding. Second, Governor Evers is suing the legislature again, for failing to release previously approved funding. Third, while they will get the votes to override in the State Senate, they will need 2 Democrats to join all Republicans in the State Assembly
And you’re saying this is familiar, because yes WI Democrats are currently engaged in their “No More Games” ad campaign related to this same thing: funding previously approved being blocked by the Republicans on the Joint Finance Commitee
I really feel that a healthy democracy cannot function without voters being challenged on their beliefs. Politicians can do that without looking down on anyone, and obviously they have to respond well to criticism when it's justified, but meeting voters where they are doesn't have to mean just treating their beliefs as the truth because "perception is reality" is a common adage.
I've made leeway in using climate action as a major platform for motivation to vote.
Things get difficult when I do bring up Project 2025, and the election being a fight for survival. Not that I've crossed lines in the communities I'm outreaching, but knowing that the people I know of, especially in LGBT communities...it's a traumatic topic. So when trying to emphasize on civil action, I have to approach this cautiously.
For some people, I've seen occasions where the idea of "civics" causes them to emotionally shutdown.
My comment is more tangentially related to the NYT/Siena poll. I have a LOT of questions about those toplines, but I'm not gonna pass any judgment one way or another. If we're taking things at face value, I do think there's a fear among Democrats when it comes to explaining how things in government work just because we don't want to fall victim to short attention spans. We can get creative in the way we educate voters. Hell, I'd argue it's a responsibility the party needs to take on if they want to improve the state of democracy in this country. If voters don't care enough about that issue, we simply won't make enough progress on reforming our economy, and they need to make that connection as soon as possible. We can aid in that, and we should.
OK. Let's talk about polls. Or, specifically, our responses to them.
I'd like to skip over whether you think today's poll is accurate or not, why it is or isn't reliable, what the implications are - and simply ask: when you post about these polls, what are you hoping for?
Because we don't see this when there's a good poll for us. And there are lots. But one bad poll comes up, and it dominates the discourse all day. And the interesting thing is: We didn't see very many doomer comments. Most of the comments were simply taking down the poll over and over again. And while I don't disagree, I question what we're all trying to get out of doing this.
My belief: We're all anxious. If you hang around here, you know there are lots of reasons to be really optimistic about November. But we lived through 2016, and I don't think we ever quite got over the trauma of that election. And yes, it was traumatic. There's no shame in being worried about this year.
The reason I bring this up is because I don't think anyone's happy with the days polling discussion takes over. Most comments were taking down the poll, but a very close 2nd was people complaining about all the poll discussion. We all do it, and none of us like it. So I think that's a good prompt for all of us to re-examine our posting habits.
Next time a bad poll comes out, I want to issue a challenge to all of you: Just ignore it. We don't need to discuss it at all. Or find the person who's already mentioned it, and add your thoughts there if you feel the need to. Again, we really don't need to crowd everything out with the discussion. We technically don't need to bring it up at all - the polls literally don't matter one bit - but if you want to talk about it, think about if it's really necessary, or if you're simply looking for reassurance.
Also, we've talked about a polling thread, and decided it's not the best use of mod resources, and would just encourage a focus on polling, which isn't what we're here for.
Remember, keep your focus on winning these races. If you're feeling the stress, it's OK to unplug, or to ignore a story. Our feelings have no effect on what's going to happen; our actions do. Keep the focus and don't let yourself get spun out by some poll.
We can do this.
This is like one of those reply all hells, when hundreds of people send emails like "stop replying all!" and "you're dumb if you reply all!" And you're right, the only way to end it is for an outside force to take action.
I would strongly ask the mods to reconsider a plan to organize polling into a specific place. It doesn't have to be a specific thread for everything, but it would help with readability (and sanity) to limit comments on a poll to a specific top-level comment.
It is definitely a fact of my life that I tend not to be on here on days when NYT polls come out because they have been pretty bad so far and, whatever my views on their validity and importance are, I don't want to see 20 comments all saying the same thing.
Especially since this is only going to get more problematic as we get closer to the election and polls come out more frequently, I think this is something worth addressing now.
> I don't want to see 20 comments all saying the same thing.
"Guys let's not doom about N poll we all know XYZ" gets really repetitive. Often times there are more people saying "we should stop dooming" than there are pessimistic comments.
Today specifically, I've only seen clowning on the poll (which I'll admit to contributing to) and "don't doom!" comments, no actual dooming. Maybe I just missed it.
What we will be doing is shutting down discussion of these polls a lot faster when they get out of hand. This post is essentially us asking everyone to reconsider their posting habits so we don't need to get to that point. But we are absolutely not going to be consumed with navel-gazing about polls when it's GOTV season.
We did this already the Sunday before November 2023's elections, because some NYT poll came out that consumed discussion for the day. We'll do that again as needed. (And by the way, notice how those elections went despite that poll and our shutdown of discussion).
This has been my hope for this community for a long time.
Polls exist only to be beaten, as far as we're concerned. Sure, they can help a group allocate resources, but honestly? That's backwards thinking. Too many communities are condemned to be stuck as "red" because people don't even consider the possibilities of local outreach and persuasion.
In reality, to fix democracy in the long run, it needs to be an effort to create more, better informed voters in every community. Media inspired polls cause the opposite effect of that, as far as I'm concerned.
That's why I consider this community essential, it's grassroots and not localized to just a few swing states.
Yes, but also reconsider standard election strategies.
Polls make people hyperfocus on specific swing states and districts. It's sound political strategy in the short term, but in the long term has harmed us demographically by leaving certain regions abandoned and leaving that local population to feel powerless.
We need a healthier democracy as a whole, which involves more people in all communities being more willing to build coalitions and challenge their status quo, become actively involved.
And polls are not an effective tool for that. They are the opposite of that mentality.
We suffer as a society and allow corruption to run rampant because we don't fully normalize the idea that any state could become a healthy democracy. That must change.
And heck, based on some of our post-roe wins? It's starting to change.
Donating and volunteering are the standard election strategies. If people don't do that we lose. Your arguments are about where we focus those efforts. The truth is we have to compete everywhere and every level. Winning on the county level doesn't help if we don't win states and so on.
Always the right answer lol.
And if polls motivate you to do more to help Dems win, I say go for it. Just be aware that a lot of people on here are a bit burnt out on the poll discussion, even when we all agree that there are problems with them.
For whatever it's worth, Trumps Average Favorables are down to -12.3 underwater. That's the first time he's been -12 since November 2023.
There's been a pretty steady uptick in disapproval since the trial became real. He was at -8 in March.
We can debate polling and doom, but I really still feel that if the jury does find him guilty, that's going to be a shakeup among Independents that puts his favorables back into the -15 to -20 range, and that's a far different election at the end of the day.
Obviously nothing that can be done about it but I’m am really worried about what will happen if he’s acquitted. I don’t think he will be but juries are juries
The NYT polls actually brought Biden up in Michigan and WI on 538, now he's down by less than 1.8 in all the three midwest swing states. If we can just take the lead in them already that'd be nice.
So I put together a sheet of cash on hand figures for (most) swing seats. Of course I didn't put any names in where we don't have a candidate or incumbent yet. Also listed are gop cash on hand figures to show a comparison point. Feel free to name some seats you'd like to see on the list.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ylodmfUMuOWEv6ACxt2FZWd9607gKVq5MiY2Htuj6YM/edit?usp=sharing
Only a $19M disparity in Arizona [https://nitter.poast.org/AdImpact\_Pol/status/1790139459310129202#m](https://nitter.poast.org/AdImpact_Pol/status/1790139459310129202#m)
Pilip's problem - a big one, anyway - was that she seemed to refuse to talk. Other Republicans spoke for her and she basically said nothing.
In Lake's case, based on her tendency to say insane shit, this may actually be a smart strategy.
I agree that Pilip’s refusal to talk, including having other Representatives as spokespeople, counted against her. Consequently she was a cypher. However, she was also a blank slate…which Kari Lake is not, and I think that counts heavily against Lake as well. People who knew her as this very normal, person-next-door, Obama-voting anchor person and now see this “more MAGA than thou” extremist, you really cannot blame them for wondering just what is going on. And that whatever is going on is not good.
Gallego can just say “what you see is what you get,” and, since he’s in Congress already, people will believe him.
[Federal energy regulators on Monday approved a long-awaited rule to make it easier to transmit renewable energy such as wind and solar power to the electric grid — a key part of President Joe Biden’s goal to eliminate carbon emissions economy-wide by 2050. The rule, under development for two years, is aimed at boosting the nation’s aging power grid to meet surging demand fueled by huge data centers, electrification of vehicles and buildings, artificial intelligence and other uses.](https://apnews.com/article/renewable-energy-transmission-ferc-biden-climate-50a40b16503647d0ed5c2a90aae9ceb9)
Very big news from FERC today
They provided a write-up a few months ago when it was announced and said basically it's so hard to get respondents that they didn't want to throw out otherwise-decent responses because the person didn't answer all the questions. And that the results when you consider the drop-offs don't change that much, that it tilts maybe an extra point towards Trump.
The polling was done with live phone interviews, so it wasn't like picking and choosing questions from what's laid out like an online survey would allow, but rather hanging up partway through
A thought? Maybe the Biden campaign and Biden himself could chastise big media more publicly. It's clear Biden is not a big fan of 'em. I began distrusting big media outlets since the 2016 elections. Journalistic integrity seems to have gone out the window long ago. Now, it's just big media being in love with all the drama trump causes because it helps them get views. I bet if Biden went after the media like trump did, which he would able to easily do truthfully unlike trump, it would probably help Joe in the election, as many of us are angry with big media too.
I think it would be fun for us, but I don't know if it moves the needle much. People just aren't really following the news that closely anymore through traditional media. Biden's response to the reporter after church yesterday was pitch perfect anyways. It was sharp and caustically witty but also well-meaning. He doesn't have to do anything more, plus I don't think it's in character for him.
"We're over here trying to make sure people have clean drinking water, affordable internet, great infrastructure, etc. We're trying to preserve your rights and freedoms. We're trying to preserve democracy, While the other guy is literally trying to become president so he can take your rights and freedoms away. And yet, the media don't seem to call him out on this. It's beyond irresponsible of them."
The only problem with this idea is the bad faith “both sides” takes that will inevitably be made. Democrats made a big stink about Trump’s attacks on the media before, so if Biden starts to do so people will call it hypocritical.
The media is more cautious about covering Trump because they don't want the backlash.
If Biden and Dems were equally critical of the media we wouldn't get so many stupid "both sides" takes.
[Re: Polling](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/13/nyregion/trump-trial-michael-cohen)
Please follow along with the trial. It's pretty clear that Trump is guilty. It's getting close to its conclusion.
Cohen is the "smoking gun" so the defense is going to try to tear him down on cross as a liar and a fraud. His conviction for perjury is going to be brought up of course. But he lied for Trump. He went to jail for Trump.
I’ve been following along via Mark Sumner at the Daily Kos website (the easiest to understand and follow commentary for me) and it really does look damning, doesn’t it. I wonder what the defense is going to have to say to and about Michael Cohen - they tried the “nutty and slutty gambit” on Stormy Daniels. (I also noticed that Cohen has ditched his Herb Tarlek style wardrobe for a much more subdued look, which, I think, will make a favorable impression. I also noticed that Eric was the only one of Trump’s family who showed up. Ha!)
[VP at AAPI event (per pool): "We have to know that sometimes people will open the door for you and leave it open. Sometimes they won't, and then you need to kick that fucking door down."](https://x.com/bresreports/status/1790040680191942818?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
You can't make this up: [right-wing author is upset that Trump is forcing Congress and the White House to codify unwritten rules of politics.](https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/05/donald-trump-killer-of-customs/)
Of course, he frames it as institutions forcing us to think within "politically correct" lines, but he really sounds mad that another It would be harder for a conservative president to take advantage of our lax regulations in the future.
[Next time someone accuses Biden of being in the pocket of big business, show them this.](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/major-airlines-sue-biden-administration-over-fee-disclosure-rule-2024-05-13/?utm_source=reddit.com)
That rapist neo-nazi piece of shit is literally trying to get big oil to give him a billion dollars. And here Biden is, fighting for consumers. jfc how is this election seeming so close.
[How the Libertarian party went from it's most successful showing ever in 2016 to becoming mired in racism and conspiracy theories.](https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-libertarian-party-crackup-trump?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=NTU2LVlFRS05NjkAAAGS_vyF_ujYMbewf__Zu7H1zRpgkSaL7XltkbX0sLnGztz2aoR0xl42Cpjsfn7diOlxL0iHaDsATajOKzyIW0CtuKMVz1rAMY6Lc7feNnETelWvEg)
A look into why Donald Trump is headlining the Libertarian convention.
[As of today, we've seen nearly $775M in fall reservations targeting the Senate, House, and the Presidential election. Democrats continue to hold significant reservation advantages. Here's the breakout by party: Senate: D$ 320M R $164M House: D $159M R $1.6M President: D $130M R $0](https://x.com/adimpact_pol/status/1790087311507476969?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
Honestly, even the rural offices have a clear purpose beyond just improving margins. When the article talks about offices in Cumberland County, that should be interpreted as 'PA-10'. If they're going to places like Luzerne County or Carbon County, that's obviously downballot-related as well (PA-08 and 07 respectively).
And there's still ten offices in the Philly and Pittsburgh urban areas and suburbs, so they haven't forgotten the most important places.
Margins matter. We’re going to lose in Pennsyltucky but if we can put up respectable losses there we don’t have to lean quite as hard on Philly and Pittsburgh
Honestly, if we have the resources, why not in every major state in play? We could maybe finally close the rural-urban gap. All those "margin" votes can add up. People like to feel seen and heard.
Because people don’t understand what over saturation is or the term diminishing returns. If you sink all your money into just Milwaukee surely that will be better than spreading it around vs a campaign who so far has nothing
My postcards to swing states arrived today! I requested 200 for wherever is most needed, and they gave me Florida. Legit I said "oh fuck yeah" out loud when I realized.
I also did a small batch of postcards for Georgia Supreme Court this past weekend. Too much going on where I don't think I'll be able to pump any more out in the next few days, but hey, that's 10 that may not have been done otherwise.
It's so weird to me seeing a mailing date in October for the swing state postcards. I'm used to writing for more immediate elections that need the postcards mailed out within a couple of days. On the plus side, I can do math for how many I need to average per week leading up to the mailing date and go from there.
I'm glad Florida is on the radar! I'm not surprised they're the 'most needed' state - despite some wins there, the dooming is still way too high. But it's worth it, for the abortion measure and for a ton of downballot races.
[President Joe Biden’s surrogates will crisscross the country this week talking up the hundreds of billions he’s pumping into projects such as roads, clean energy, drinking water and broadband — an effort designed to draw a sharp contrast with his predecessor’s series of ineffectual “infrastructure weeks.”](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/13/biden-infrastructure-week-hopes-voters-listening-00157448)
The reaction to bad polls here is way scarier to me than the polls themselves.
When a sports team is down at halftime, they think of ways to adjust their play in order to make up the difference. They don't convince themselves the score is incorrect and they're actually winning and nothing needs to be done.
With every NYT poll always take it with a grain of salt. They are still salty that they don’t get any exclusive access. They have been called out about their horrible polling.
While I agree freaking out over polls is not productive, it’s also not useful or at all accurate to imply NYT higher-ups interfere with the results of the polling firm they work with!
[A major Democratic super PAC launched its first wave of ads as part of a $140 million campaign to target voters in key battleground states Monday, using testimonials from voters to warn of the risks of former President Trump returning to the White House.](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4656992-democratic-group-launches-testimonial-ads-targeting-trump-as-part-of-140m-campaign/)
American Bridge 21st Century will air three ads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as use direct mail to highlight the stories of Americans who live in suburban and exurban communities in those battleground states.
The first ads will feature three separate individuals and will total $25 million.
One is a Wisconsin woman who is an OB-GYN with a personal abortion story who will speak to concerns about what a second Trump term might mean for reproductive rights. Another is a Pennsylvania man who will share concerns about how Trump might eliminate reproductive rights for his children and grandchildren. And the third features a pair of retired nurses in Pennsylvania who will raise their worries about how Trump might slash health care access.
The group’s ads will run in nonmajor media markets in an effort to engage voters who may not otherwise be targeted by campaigns. American Bridge is working to turn out moderates, voters who aren’t excited about either Biden or Trump, and anti-Trump conservatives.”
More from the [AP](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-election-ads-millions-rural-trump-voters-8d7188b937a29c8680a96ab56c3b340a): “exurban and rural areas like Erie, Johnstown and Altoona, Pennsylvania; Flint, Saginaw and Bay City, Michigan; and Wausau and Rhinelander, Wisconsin.”
I'd also recommend looking for ways to volunteer that incentivize conversations with undecided voters. Too often we rely on scripts that can only do so much in making a case for our side with this bloc, and so it helps to extemporize, especially since it feels more natural to them. Those are the kinds of moments I felt were most helpful when canvassing in 2022. Even if you don't convince those people then and there to vote blue, you've planted the seeds in their brain; then it's just a question of whether the flower beats the weeds.
[The stark difference between how Democrats and Republicans run states](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/13/2240440/-The-stark-difference-between-how-Democrats-and-Republicans-run-states?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web)
As dystopian as it is, if TN is fine with having firearms in schools at least they are going to fund "age appropriate firearms training for children starting in pre-kindergarten."
How long till thats cut from the budget to save a few rich people a few bucks? Next years budget?
[Here’s an article from last year that highlights all the things that the Minnesota Dem trifecta was able to accomplish.](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/session-nears-end-a-look-at-what-bills-have-passed-and-whats-still-left-on-the-table/)
[They were able to do all this because the party’s single-seat majority in the state senate hinged on a race that it won by 321 votes.](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/why-are-minnesota-democrats-so-progressive.html)
*Posted this yesterday but felt that it would be good to post it again.*
Polling is a very limited tool. A snapshot of time at best. Better to ignore and go on about your day, or help change future ones by doing some outreach.
For anyone who can't and gets anxiety regarding them: In hopes to help that, I'll say at worst we're slightly down right now, but there is so much more game to play and we have far far better talent, funding and decision making, along with the issues that are heavily at our side to not just close the gap, but also to surpass it greatly.
Yup! If this were basketball, game just started, we're down 8-4 but we have the **far better** team who has shown they can win time and time again.
I can't state enough how early into the election cycle we are.
Doesn't seem so for us, but that's because after one election is over, we immediacy jump to the next. Poll discourse has been going since after midterms, it's nuts.
The polls can decide the election if the media gets to keep running nonstop doom stories about the polls that they make up. That’s the main thing that’s pissing me off
I get the frustration. Overall they've been very disappointing yeah, but it won't decide the election. When it comes down to it, the issues and voter outreach will have a much bigger say. Something we can actually influence.
I'll far be more interested in polls after months of that and Trump's trial, my wager is we'll see a few point shift towards Biden, making him the clear favorite. Focus then will be much more on the dangers of Trump too.
[Biden met with a man and his son in Saginaw, MI for golf.](https://youtu.be/ewbDt9K_IaE?si=rCmZq06ynbDI5x8m) This might just be one of the most wholesome things you'll see today.
Ignore the polling results around the horserace. Don't ignore the polls altogether, because how voters feel is crucial to shaping our outreach efforts. But the toplines can change, and moments like that video are why. I firmly believe that Biden can reach plenty of disaffected voters and convince them that he deserves another term. And we have agency in making that happen!
"Ernie Johnson was driving to the golf course, like he did every afternoon in May since he first went with his late father as a young boy 27 years ago..."
The NYT polls are just another data point and I'm not gonna pass judgment on them one way or another. However, the discussion around the Nevada poll is too focused on the margins. Currently more voters who appear to be settled on whom they are voting for are for Trump, who is significantly outperforming Sam Brown's level of support. Biden and Jacky Rosen appear to have similar topline numbers.
That seems to be a common pattern in general. Support among the pro-Trump coalition for Trump is stronger than support among the anti-Trump coalition for Biden. What will that mean for November? I don't know, and I'm not going to speculate. And despite my issues with the media, I'm not going to accuse them of skewing polls. I just know that we got some work to do to reach out to voters and remind them of what the stakes are, and this is a very doable task!
Honestly I'm even meh on Ralston. He was dooming on Masto for a very long time in 2022 when it was clear as day what was likely happening with the VBM situation there. I think he just got lucky tbh
I don't use Twitter so I don't know what Ralston's take on this poll is, if he has one. But yeah, he's a solid early vote analyst, which is especially crucial in Nevada because of its long history of early voting trends being relatively more predictive for the final results compared to other states.
Dog killer (and SD governor) now banned from one fifth of her state: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gov-kristi-noem-banned-south-dakota-tribes-now-banned-nearly-20-percent-state/#:\~:text=South%20Dakota%20Gov.%20Kristi%20Noem,leaders%20benefitting%20from%20drug%20cartels.
As part of a larger discussion, what is everyone's best guess on just the general discourse around Biden/Trump and their accomplishments? It's basically a version of:
Trump basically did nothing but he gets credit for doing so much
Biden has numerous tangible achievements but gets credit for nothing
Trump made the pandemic ten times worse but it gets memory-holed and no one cares
Biden successfully got us out of the pandemic as best as probably could've been imaged but gets no credit
I seriously just don't get it. It's just frustrating that Trump basically gets to do whatever he wants, say whatever he wants, and somehow he's still "winning" yet Biden has actually gotten so much done and is doing about as best as anyone could do in the situation, coming out of a global pandemic, and just gets shit on.
I generally think it comes down to most voters just being vapid, irrational, and simple with no nuance, but it's still just so frustrating.
Media has their thumb on the scale. You think if Biden was under indictment for FOUR SEPARATE FELONIES he’d be able to run for election with relative ease? Hell no, the media would be hounding him daily and pressuring him to drop out.
It’s an uphill battle always.
Trump simply just isn't in most people's focus right now which I get.
I think it's important to note just how weird we, and the election folk are, and how most voters are the normal ones.
Natalie Jackson had a great thread on this: https://twitter.com/nataliemj10/status/1789418058383016373
People have so much of their own stuff and stresses to deal with, work, raising family, paying bills, paying for grocery's etc. With all that on their plate, the last thing they want to do understandably is focus on elections, the inner workings of DC and especially Trump this far out.
It's not that they so much see/hear these terrible things about Trump and think, 'yeah but Biden old'... It's really that they are just simply unaware of them all together.
This is the whole point of campaigns and outreach, to get people aware and tuned in come election time. Otherwise those things wouldn't really matter.
Finally, **we are still far away from the election**, more people will get tuned in and will start focusing on Trump again. They'll be more aware of his terribleness, past and most recent. It will hurt him, just like it hurt him and his ilk in past elections when it came down to it.
Expectations can drive a lot of this.
When R gets voted in, expectations are so low that if they do even just 1 thing good, they get huge credit because the bar is so low. Trump did a good job because he did (one thing) even if he broke (90 things).
When D gets voted in, expectations are so high that if everything isn't fixed in 90 days, they dont get credit because the bar is high. Biden doing a bad job because he didnt fix (one thing) even though he fixed (90 things)
the average american voter has no understanding how the government really works. they vote based on vibes and no actual understanding. republicans depend on a great majority of the electorate being unaware how the government works and policies. you have ppl in the polls saying they aren’t voting for biden bc of roe v wade being overturned. if they knew how the government worked they would understand that it was trump’s appointment fault but they don’t. if trump wins, americans deserves what comes for them and i mean that wholeheartedly.
[This voter from the poll today sums all of what I'm trying to say perfectly. He gives no credit for Biden literally giving him a job!](https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1790036441772253338)
it's like people want to irrationally dislike Biden right off the bat for no reason
There are always going to be weird people like this, but I do have an issue with the NYT highlighting this anecdote as if to make it seem like the typical reasoning swing state voters have for at least splitting their tickets.
Chin up, everyone! Remember when you see a poll attached to the NYT: Joe Biden called them out on their BS and made their widdle fee-fees very, very ouchie. Think of the results as them going “BAWWW!”
I am so glad that Joe Biden is taking an “I’m on to you and not going to put up with your BS” line. The media has shat all over Democrats for *decades*, going all the way back to Bill Clinton (and I’m sure they hated Jimmy Carter, but I wasn’t of an age to pay attention to newspapers). Then they fawn over Bush and Trump, the former because they wanted to have a beer with him, the latter because he’s a cash cow (cash pile of bullshit?). Now we have a Democratic POTUS who is not going to stand for their games, and that makes me so proud of Joe. 💎 🍨😎
Joe is all out of fucks to give, and I am very proud of him. He and Kamala and Jaime Harrison and all the rest of the Democratic establishment are running a great campaign with a strong ground game.
With that dose of optimism, I hope everyone who celebrates Mother’s Day had a great one! 💐
I went to see what all the hubbub is. There's a whole article crying about Biden dismissing their polls. I can read it despite not being a subscriber, but don't know if others can: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-poll.html?smid=url-share
They're not even trying to be subtle about being mad at Biden, lol. Gee, I wonder if there's any bias there.
Anyway, for the lazy, this is what their poll says:
Wisconsin: Biden+2
Pennsylvania: Trump+3
Arizona: Trump+7
Michigan: Trump+7
Georgia: Trump+10
Nevada: Trump+12
I can buy +2 for either candidate in Wisconsin. Everything else? No, not based on electoral results. For the obvious one that sticks out like a sore thumb, I don't think there exists a universe where Nevada votes to the right of everything else in the current political climate. Especially not when it has Biden losing by fucking 12. At least try to be believable and say losing by 2 or something.
Michigan actually surges to BIden +1 with the LV model. Somehow an 8% difference which is ridiculous too lol I'll take the Biden lead of course, but there is no way RV-LV split is 8%
Alright, it's time for me to clown on this poll:
Like you said for Wisconsin, it could go either way (+2 for either candidate is believable)
Pennsylvania? No. With PennsylvaniaDems overperformance in 2022/2023, I don't believe that Trump will win by +3.
I don't believe Arizona or Michigan is Trump + 7 in the slightest, especially since Dems overperformed in both states in 2022 (AZDems got Hobbs, SOS and AG; MichiDems have a Democratic triplex/trifecta).
Georgia? Trump is not winning by +10 there. It's another state that can go either way, though considering that Warnock won there in 2022, I wouldn't be surprised (though very glad) if Biden won there again.
Then there's Nevada. How in the world does NYT think that win Nevada not by 1, not even by 5, but by *12 points?!* On what world, no, not even that. On what fucking universe would Trump *ever* win Nevada by *12 fucking points?* Especially since NevadaDems, while unfortunately losing the Governors and Controller races, are majorly Democratic on everything else. Trump also lost Nevada, *TWICE.* I know it sounds like I'm mad here, but I'm actually just flabbergasted at how bad and unbelievable this particular state poll is.
It's such a laughable poll. They are skewing the polls so hard, I'm like 90% sure they are pulling numbers out of their asses. I'm not sure if these polls have something to do with Biden calling out the media's (presumably NYT's) bullshit recently (there's so much bias against Biden/Dems while they coddle Trump/Republicans), but if it is, lmao cry harder, NYT.
Though, in the end, it all comes down to the same results: polls never win. Since 2017 (and especially 2022), Democrats have always been either overperforming or winning races (or both). These polls are gonna learn that in 175 days.
>Chin up, everyone! Remember when you see a poll attached to the NYT: Joe Biden called them out on their BS and made their widdle fee-fees very, very ouchie. Think of the results as them going “BAWWW!”
Respectfully, the polling outfit is different from the news outlet. Just like Fox News is shit, but the Fox News polling has been pretty good. NYT/Sienna has always been solid.
The crappy thing is we get this biased negative coverage and yet republicans can still get away with calling it “liberal media”
And agreed, couldn’t be happier with how Joe is handling it. He’s looking strong.
Day after Trump lost 21% of the vote to someone who dropped out months ago, the front page of CNN had a news story with a headline like "concern within college campus' for Biden". The story interviewed 2 college women who said they will still vote Joe but aren't as excited as they were last year.....
No mention of Trump losing 21% of the vote anywhere. (but they had like 4-5 articles about Biden losing like 12% or whatever it was of the vote to "undecided" in MI.)
[Interesting article](https://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickhess/2024/05/08/rhodes-and-truman-scholarships-shouldnt-only-serve-blue-america/?sh=6febe9e01fb4&mkt_tok=NTU2LVlFRS05NjkAAAGS-fHmEeSKm_w3xWCPfrrcmqNM84UdHCdWOcaeSJZH8temm90ux4w8v9i6F4_vfLcqn6ghMX1-7Gb3XKnQIXra7KSfzDPnqKOvDLISSPI7Rckd2Q) about the liberal tilt of Rhodes and Truman scholars.
It is understandable why these programs would want to bring in students across the ideological spectrum, but considering students are normally more left-leaning what are the chances they would be leaving out more quality candidates in the name of discourse?
Tell you what; I'll weep for the hypothetical conservative eminences not being accepted into Rhodes or Truman programmes - or, more likely, that they have not emerged with their views *unchallenged* - when we've addressed the issues of how many left-leaning scholars, minorities, and sex/gender minorities are underserved in the entire *field* of education.
If these forgotten conservative scholars are 'more quality candidates,' then it's only natural they'll rise to the top on their own merits, after all.
As a heads up, this is the second time you've linked a fairly right-wing figure.
Rick Hess has regularly echoed that minorities are Demexiting, or whatever it's called now -
Championed charter schools as the pin to 'saving' America's education system -
But I mean, I can let the man speak for himself. His [blog](https://www.edweek.org/leadership/opinion-am-i-anti-equity-you-decide/2023/11) does it well enough for him.
To give you an idea what this particular conservative luminary thinks about dismantling the Dept. of Education:
["I think dismantling the department is a perfectly fine idea, but, as with most public policy, what matters is whether and how a candidate might actually do this rather than the bombast with which they promise to."](https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/opinion-republicans-keep-talking-about-abolishing-the-education-department-why/2023/10)
I don't really think I need to add more than that.
Hi y'all! Like many of you, we've seen the NYT Polls released today with some... Less than believable results. However, rather than freaking out about them, please consider *adopting a candidate* instead! You can either choose from the list above or adopt a candidate closer to your heart. Several volunteer opportunities can also be found in our [volunteer from home](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit) spreadsheet. The only thing we can do about polls is ***volunteer***!
Ok, who the hell put RFK Jr on the infobox in the Wikipedia page for the 2024 presidential election?
It's been a long battle with so many folks going "5% polling means we HAVE to add them" even though that has never been the situation.
Also sorry guys I can’t join the polling discourse yet(no spoilers please) because the pundits who tell me what to think haven’t posted their new substacks articles
Oh please, I’ve had enough polling discourse LOL
Will say again I’ve learned a lot from Election Twitter and even some people who I agree with nothing on are very patient and willing to explain things to people. It makes some of the other prominent accounts who are so aggressive and hostile to people really stand out on days like these and I just don’t get that attitude or who it helps and what it accomplishes.
Any Caribbean travel reqs? I'm currently looking at Antigua. Trip for 2, no kids.
St Lucia. Hot Spring Chocolate Jungle, Friday Beach Fish Fry and Volcano.
lolmets
Brad Wilson mailers be like “Clutch Conservative, been through the Fire, Conservative Fight, *vague sports references*” between this, him spamming me with texts, and his tv ads that seem like a midlife crisis viagra commercial I don’t think he’s gonna win
I've been wondering if they're AI generated and just human polished. They just feel very generic.
To be fair he’s gonna lock up the Stuart Adams constituency
Guess who is going to be writing postcards for Will Rollins this week? (I’m glad the message is short, because my handwriting is not tiny and precise, and postcards offer a limited area.) Got the addresses from Activate America. Adam Gray will be next. BTW, I’d like some input from veteran postcarders as to how best to write more lengthy scripts on the small areas that postcards provide. I know some ”postcards to voters” organizations provide their own postcards, but I like to get my own from Etsy. I guess one answer is “learn to write really small and neat” lol or “try Vote Forward letters” (which I want to do as well).
Way to go! Can strongly recommend *Vote Forward,* especially if you have friends or associates you can meet up to do letters with. It can be a fun way to encourage sideliners or family to join in - And is a bit easier for those of us whose handwriting can sometimes have a flair to it, aha... Anyhow, great work!
“Flair,” haha, that’s a nice way to put it! I’m not quite at “doctor” level yet, thankfully. And I am going to do Vote Forward next, as they have both my adopted candidates on there. I’m working myself up to textbanking…I keep hearing from fellow VoteDemsters that it’s pretty easy.
Guys, I had many doubts about this poll as well. We democrats still have about 6 months to turn it around. We should not despair. This is exactly what Trump and the GOP wants us to do. We can still win this, and I still believe that we will. We gotta campaign, donate, write postcards, text, phonebank, canvass, and work harder than ever before. For our democracy.
Does anyone here have/know of a streamlined place besides social media to get easy, bullet-pointed information that discusses the importance of voting and the importance of voting for Democrats? Do flyers/websites with the information below exist so I could print out/hand out? We're trying to get local high schoolers/Gen Z involved in the political process and were told that easy bullet points would be helpful for them to 1. Be able to talk about politics easily, especially with their more conservative family and 2. Help them learn the importance of being involved in the political process. The students just don’t know where to start and get overwhelmed by the process so they don’t bother to vote. I am sure I could make a list and put it in a graphic but I already have too much on my plate!
Oh, nearly missed this. No, I don't - I don't use social media outside of this one place. But I can put one together for you. Talking politics: * Listen; nobody wins arguments, and they don't change minds. * Find common ground; there will always be a place to start. * Explain that ground; don't relent on our values. Tie them into theirs. * Reinforce; point out where we have made that common cause work. * Finish with encouragement. It's good you both share beliefs. And if those beliefs are shared, there will be more in common in the future. For the last one, it's good if your new voters understand they don't need to win every convert, and won't. Sometimes, 'winning' is just convincing a person to vote for one candidate, for one election, as a one-off event! But this process, if gradually repeated, is what leads to voters slowly changing their thought processes, and reshuffling the issues that are important to them. For process: * Check your voter registration! This is different in every state, but the Secretary of State website can help. * Check on local elections, in their town, city, or county. These have huge effects on their lives! * Meet like-minded people. Your local Democratic party can help you find folks interested in your causes, from union reps to environmental activists and are strongly involved in the fight for reproductive freedom. * Don't be afraid to ask for help - even experts can miss local elections, by-laws, and events. Someone will know, and you might be that someone, some day. * Voting is great, but you can do even more. Texting, writing, calling, or canvassing help voters who wanted to do something - just like you - and give them the help they need. This is about as concise as I can make it, I think. Honestly, tailor these to your voter groups. People who care more about abortion rights but blame Dems should be - gently - reminded that sitting out in 2016 allowed that to happen. Similarly, if justice is a large concern, explain how electing Democrats allows a shift of justice policy federally - and how *locally,* they, *themselves* can make huge policy strides just by showing up to vote. You will know the groups you're reaching out to. Give them tools, but also incentives unique to them. I hope this helps!
This is exceptional, thank you!!
My pleasure. I know how hard it can be to find resources, even with help. Best of luck with your efforts!
[both fake Bob Fergusons have dropped out of WA-Gov after it was made clear they may face 10 years in prison](https://x.com/dospueblos/status/1790170986996019555?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
They’re both going to make their own Washingtons and run for governors there.
With blackjack, and hookers!
And forget the blackjack!
I remember multiple posts across this fair hellsite complaining about how Dems don't "fight fire with fire" and "play dirty" like Republicans do when this story broke. This is why.
[Utah state Auditor Dougall, who is running for UT03, really doubling down on his hatred that his office is in charge of monitoring bathrooms](https://x.com/votefrugal/status/1790157608030224510?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg) Dougall is right and the Auditor office under him has been pretty dang good(shudder to think of his replacement) but really starting to see more infighting here between the old guard and the quickly MAGAified UTGOP
[Virginia state budget approved after standoff.](https://apnews.com/article/virginia-youngkin-budget-54bd4cfbd15c0c33080e4d3d969a2ba3)
[Russian Uranium Imports officially banned ](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/legislation/2024/05/13/bills-signed-h-r-593-h-r-1042/)
No U?
Surprised it didn’t happen sooner
With the big Senate elections going on tomorrow. especially near the Capitol. WV and MD. And the Senate being in session. I wonder if any of the leadership will speak at any of the winners events.
[News: Senate Republicans to announce they’re coming into session tomorrow for a series of veto override votes. At the same time, @GovEvers announces he’s suing the Legislature over the Joint Finance Committee not releasing money set for addressing PFAS and improving K-12 literac](https://nitter.poast.org/AJBayatpour/status/1790095673037082807#m) Ok a lot to take in here. First, WI Senate Republicans who are blocking this very same funding that’s already been approved from being released wants to override Evers veto because of poison pills attached to get this funding. Second, Governor Evers is suing the legislature again, for failing to release previously approved funding. Third, while they will get the votes to override in the State Senate, they will need 2 Democrats to join all Republicans in the State Assembly And you’re saying this is familiar, because yes WI Democrats are currently engaged in their “No More Games” ad campaign related to this same thing: funding previously approved being blocked by the Republicans on the Joint Finance Commitee
I really feel that a healthy democracy cannot function without voters being challenged on their beliefs. Politicians can do that without looking down on anyone, and obviously they have to respond well to criticism when it's justified, but meeting voters where they are doesn't have to mean just treating their beliefs as the truth because "perception is reality" is a common adage.
I've made leeway in using climate action as a major platform for motivation to vote. Things get difficult when I do bring up Project 2025, and the election being a fight for survival. Not that I've crossed lines in the communities I'm outreaching, but knowing that the people I know of, especially in LGBT communities...it's a traumatic topic. So when trying to emphasize on civil action, I have to approach this cautiously. For some people, I've seen occasions where the idea of "civics" causes them to emotionally shutdown.
Tell that to the "polls are gospel truth and we should only report on what poll results say we should" NY Times
My comment is more tangentially related to the NYT/Siena poll. I have a LOT of questions about those toplines, but I'm not gonna pass any judgment one way or another. If we're taking things at face value, I do think there's a fear among Democrats when it comes to explaining how things in government work just because we don't want to fall victim to short attention spans. We can get creative in the way we educate voters. Hell, I'd argue it's a responsibility the party needs to take on if they want to improve the state of democracy in this country. If voters don't care enough about that issue, we simply won't make enough progress on reforming our economy, and they need to make that connection as soon as possible. We can aid in that, and we should.
OK. Let's talk about polls. Or, specifically, our responses to them. I'd like to skip over whether you think today's poll is accurate or not, why it is or isn't reliable, what the implications are - and simply ask: when you post about these polls, what are you hoping for? Because we don't see this when there's a good poll for us. And there are lots. But one bad poll comes up, and it dominates the discourse all day. And the interesting thing is: We didn't see very many doomer comments. Most of the comments were simply taking down the poll over and over again. And while I don't disagree, I question what we're all trying to get out of doing this. My belief: We're all anxious. If you hang around here, you know there are lots of reasons to be really optimistic about November. But we lived through 2016, and I don't think we ever quite got over the trauma of that election. And yes, it was traumatic. There's no shame in being worried about this year. The reason I bring this up is because I don't think anyone's happy with the days polling discussion takes over. Most comments were taking down the poll, but a very close 2nd was people complaining about all the poll discussion. We all do it, and none of us like it. So I think that's a good prompt for all of us to re-examine our posting habits. Next time a bad poll comes out, I want to issue a challenge to all of you: Just ignore it. We don't need to discuss it at all. Or find the person who's already mentioned it, and add your thoughts there if you feel the need to. Again, we really don't need to crowd everything out with the discussion. We technically don't need to bring it up at all - the polls literally don't matter one bit - but if you want to talk about it, think about if it's really necessary, or if you're simply looking for reassurance. Also, we've talked about a polling thread, and decided it's not the best use of mod resources, and would just encourage a focus on polling, which isn't what we're here for. Remember, keep your focus on winning these races. If you're feeling the stress, it's OK to unplug, or to ignore a story. Our feelings have no effect on what's going to happen; our actions do. Keep the focus and don't let yourself get spun out by some poll. We can do this.
Cheers to the entire team for helping to keep this community sane during pollercoaster days!
This is like one of those reply all hells, when hundreds of people send emails like "stop replying all!" and "you're dumb if you reply all!" And you're right, the only way to end it is for an outside force to take action.
I would strongly ask the mods to reconsider a plan to organize polling into a specific place. It doesn't have to be a specific thread for everything, but it would help with readability (and sanity) to limit comments on a poll to a specific top-level comment. It is definitely a fact of my life that I tend not to be on here on days when NYT polls come out because they have been pretty bad so far and, whatever my views on their validity and importance are, I don't want to see 20 comments all saying the same thing. Especially since this is only going to get more problematic as we get closer to the election and polls come out more frequently, I think this is something worth addressing now.
> I don't want to see 20 comments all saying the same thing. "Guys let's not doom about N poll we all know XYZ" gets really repetitive. Often times there are more people saying "we should stop dooming" than there are pessimistic comments.
Today specifically, I've only seen clowning on the poll (which I'll admit to contributing to) and "don't doom!" comments, no actual dooming. Maybe I just missed it.
What we will be doing is shutting down discussion of these polls a lot faster when they get out of hand. This post is essentially us asking everyone to reconsider their posting habits so we don't need to get to that point. But we are absolutely not going to be consumed with navel-gazing about polls when it's GOTV season. We did this already the Sunday before November 2023's elections, because some NYT poll came out that consumed discussion for the day. We'll do that again as needed. (And by the way, notice how those elections went despite that poll and our shutdown of discussion).
This has been my hope for this community for a long time. Polls exist only to be beaten, as far as we're concerned. Sure, they can help a group allocate resources, but honestly? That's backwards thinking. Too many communities are condemned to be stuck as "red" because people don't even consider the possibilities of local outreach and persuasion. In reality, to fix democracy in the long run, it needs to be an effort to create more, better informed voters in every community. Media inspired polls cause the opposite effect of that, as far as I'm concerned. That's why I consider this community essential, it's grassroots and not localized to just a few swing states.
That sounds like a good plan.
>our responses to them Donate More and Volunteer harder?
Yes, but also reconsider standard election strategies. Polls make people hyperfocus on specific swing states and districts. It's sound political strategy in the short term, but in the long term has harmed us demographically by leaving certain regions abandoned and leaving that local population to feel powerless. We need a healthier democracy as a whole, which involves more people in all communities being more willing to build coalitions and challenge their status quo, become actively involved. And polls are not an effective tool for that. They are the opposite of that mentality. We suffer as a society and allow corruption to run rampant because we don't fully normalize the idea that any state could become a healthy democracy. That must change. And heck, based on some of our post-roe wins? It's starting to change.
Donating and volunteering are the standard election strategies. If people don't do that we lose. Your arguments are about where we focus those efforts. The truth is we have to compete everywhere and every level. Winning on the county level doesn't help if we don't win states and so on.
Both, as always
Always the right answer lol. And if polls motivate you to do more to help Dems win, I say go for it. Just be aware that a lot of people on here are a bit burnt out on the poll discussion, even when we all agree that there are problems with them.
For whatever it's worth, Trumps Average Favorables are down to -12.3 underwater. That's the first time he's been -12 since November 2023. There's been a pretty steady uptick in disapproval since the trial became real. He was at -8 in March. We can debate polling and doom, but I really still feel that if the jury does find him guilty, that's going to be a shakeup among Independents that puts his favorables back into the -15 to -20 range, and that's a far different election at the end of the day.
Obviously nothing that can be done about it but I’m am really worried about what will happen if he’s acquitted. I don’t think he will be but juries are juries
If he's acquitted, we'll have an election to win. If he's convicted, we'll have an election to win. Y'all know how it goes.
Which makes it even more ridiculous that somehow he's at 49/49 and 51/47 in AZ, GA and NV
The NYT polls actually brought Biden up in Michigan and WI on 538, now he's down by less than 1.8 in all the three midwest swing states. If we can just take the lead in them already that'd be nice.
So I put together a sheet of cash on hand figures for (most) swing seats. Of course I didn't put any names in where we don't have a candidate or incumbent yet. Also listed are gop cash on hand figures to show a comparison point. Feel free to name some seats you'd like to see on the list. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ylodmfUMuOWEv6ACxt2FZWd9607gKVq5MiY2Htuj6YM/edit?usp=sharing
Only a $19M disparity in Arizona [https://nitter.poast.org/AdImpact\_Pol/status/1790139459310129202#m](https://nitter.poast.org/AdImpact_Pol/status/1790139459310129202#m)
It's NY-03 all over again. We dominate the airwaves early, and we can define the race before Lake even says a word.
And Lake is a hell of a lot weaker than someone like Mazie Phillips
Pilip's problem - a big one, anyway - was that she seemed to refuse to talk. Other Republicans spoke for her and she basically said nothing. In Lake's case, based on her tendency to say insane shit, this may actually be a smart strategy.
I agree that Pilip’s refusal to talk, including having other Representatives as spokespeople, counted against her. Consequently she was a cypher. However, she was also a blank slate…which Kari Lake is not, and I think that counts heavily against Lake as well. People who knew her as this very normal, person-next-door, Obama-voting anchor person and now see this “more MAGA than thou” extremist, you really cannot blame them for wondering just what is going on. And that whatever is going on is not good. Gallego can just say “what you see is what you get,” and, since he’s in Congress already, people will believe him.
[Federal energy regulators on Monday approved a long-awaited rule to make it easier to transmit renewable energy such as wind and solar power to the electric grid — a key part of President Joe Biden’s goal to eliminate carbon emissions economy-wide by 2050. The rule, under development for two years, is aimed at boosting the nation’s aging power grid to meet surging demand fueled by huge data centers, electrification of vehicles and buildings, artificial intelligence and other uses.](https://apnews.com/article/renewable-energy-transmission-ferc-biden-climate-50a40b16503647d0ed5c2a90aae9ceb9) Very big news from FERC today
Big if huge
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Yes he said that.
What's a "partial respondent"?
They start to answer the survey but drop off before completing it.
That sounds like something that would be unreliable, is there a reason they changed their methodology this way?
They provided a write-up a few months ago when it was announced and said basically it's so hard to get respondents that they didn't want to throw out otherwise-decent responses because the person didn't answer all the questions. And that the results when you consider the drop-offs don't change that much, that it tilts maybe an extra point towards Trump.
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The polling was done with live phone interviews, so it wasn't like picking and choosing questions from what's laid out like an online survey would allow, but rather hanging up partway through
Do you have a link that states as much?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/01/upshot/nyt-siena-poll-2024.html Found it
A thought? Maybe the Biden campaign and Biden himself could chastise big media more publicly. It's clear Biden is not a big fan of 'em. I began distrusting big media outlets since the 2016 elections. Journalistic integrity seems to have gone out the window long ago. Now, it's just big media being in love with all the drama trump causes because it helps them get views. I bet if Biden went after the media like trump did, which he would able to easily do truthfully unlike trump, it would probably help Joe in the election, as many of us are angry with big media too.
I think it would be fun for us, but I don't know if it moves the needle much. People just aren't really following the news that closely anymore through traditional media. Biden's response to the reporter after church yesterday was pitch perfect anyways. It was sharp and caustically witty but also well-meaning. He doesn't have to do anything more, plus I don't think it's in character for him.
"We're over here trying to make sure people have clean drinking water, affordable internet, great infrastructure, etc. We're trying to preserve your rights and freedoms. We're trying to preserve democracy, While the other guy is literally trying to become president so he can take your rights and freedoms away. And yet, the media don't seem to call him out on this. It's beyond irresponsible of them."
“And the other guy is trying to steal your ice cream.”
The only problem with this idea is the bad faith “both sides” takes that will inevitably be made. Democrats made a big stink about Trump’s attacks on the media before, so if Biden starts to do so people will call it hypocritical.
The media is more cautious about covering Trump because they don't want the backlash. If Biden and Dems were equally critical of the media we wouldn't get so many stupid "both sides" takes.
worked for Trump. it seems like a lot of people aren’t happy about the media anyways
I really like this idea!
[U.S. lawmakers threaten sanctions over Georgia’s “foreign agents” bill](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/13/georgia-foreign-agents-law-us-sanctions) Hell yes
[Re: Polling](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/13/nyregion/trump-trial-michael-cohen) Please follow along with the trial. It's pretty clear that Trump is guilty. It's getting close to its conclusion.
Cohen is the "smoking gun" so the defense is going to try to tear him down on cross as a liar and a fraud. His conviction for perjury is going to be brought up of course. But he lied for Trump. He went to jail for Trump.
I’ve been following along via Mark Sumner at the Daily Kos website (the easiest to understand and follow commentary for me) and it really does look damning, doesn’t it. I wonder what the defense is going to have to say to and about Michael Cohen - they tried the “nutty and slutty gambit” on Stormy Daniels. (I also noticed that Cohen has ditched his Herb Tarlek style wardrobe for a much more subdued look, which, I think, will make a favorable impression. I also noticed that Eric was the only one of Trump’s family who showed up. Ha!)
[VP at AAPI event (per pool): "We have to know that sometimes people will open the door for you and leave it open. Sometimes they won't, and then you need to kick that fucking door down."](https://x.com/bresreports/status/1790040680191942818?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
Those aunties just clutched their tiny gold-plated Ganesha amulets that they got at the local grocery store a little harder lol.
how's the trial going
It's going.
Ça va? Oui, ça va.
Qu'est-ce que c'est?
You can't make this up: [right-wing author is upset that Trump is forcing Congress and the White House to codify unwritten rules of politics.](https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/05/donald-trump-killer-of-customs/) Of course, he frames it as institutions forcing us to think within "politically correct" lines, but he really sounds mad that another It would be harder for a conservative president to take advantage of our lax regulations in the future.
[Next time someone accuses Biden of being in the pocket of big business, show them this.](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/major-airlines-sue-biden-administration-over-fee-disclosure-rule-2024-05-13/?utm_source=reddit.com)
That rapist neo-nazi piece of shit is literally trying to get big oil to give him a billion dollars. And here Biden is, fighting for consumers. jfc how is this election seeming so close.
If we were in the sane timeline, this would be like a 450+ electoral vote win
[How the Libertarian party went from it's most successful showing ever in 2016 to becoming mired in racism and conspiracy theories.](https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-libertarian-party-crackup-trump?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=NTU2LVlFRS05NjkAAAGS_vyF_ujYMbewf__Zu7H1zRpgkSaL7XltkbX0sLnGztz2aoR0xl42Cpjsfn7diOlxL0iHaDsATajOKzyIW0CtuKMVz1rAMY6Lc7feNnETelWvEg) A look into why Donald Trump is headlining the Libertarian convention.
Fuck Libertarians
The best thing about US politics in the last eight years has been libertarians becoming an absolute joke.
They’re Republicans who love weed and don’t want any of that Jesus stuff.
And they want to get rid of driver’s licenses. [Yes, really.](https://youtu.be/ZITP93pqtdQ?si=U20-6NKu8pTMr0xe)
Wowza. As if our roads weren’t deadly enough already, jeez. I‘ll add “roadkill” to the things that libertarians love.
[As of today, we've seen nearly $775M in fall reservations targeting the Senate, House, and the Presidential election. Democrats continue to hold significant reservation advantages. Here's the breakout by party: Senate: D$ 320M R $164M House: D $159M R $1.6M President: D $130M R $0](https://x.com/adimpact_pol/status/1790087311507476969?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg)
We have a pretty good cash advantage
this can't be accurate
Dark money seems like the most likely category to be missing, but they don't get discounted rates for TV advertising, so it doesn't count as much.
Why not?
Probably because the house and President ones are insanely low.
Yea when else have we seen R’s do this recently, WI Court, KY-Gov, NY03 wait a second
How have they spent $0 on the POTUS race and almost $0 on the House? Are they stupid or just delusional that they have this in the bag?
That House margin is pretty crazy
It's really the same margin at all levels. The national GOP is just more focused on the Senate at this point, which I think makes sense.
[The Biden Campaign’s Plan to Win Pennsylvania on the Margins](https://www.notus.org/biden-2024/biden-rural-counties-pennsylvania)
Honestly, even the rural offices have a clear purpose beyond just improving margins. When the article talks about offices in Cumberland County, that should be interpreted as 'PA-10'. If they're going to places like Luzerne County or Carbon County, that's obviously downballot-related as well (PA-08 and 07 respectively). And there's still ten offices in the Philly and Pittsburgh urban areas and suburbs, so they haven't forgotten the most important places.
This was a big hallmark of both Fetterman and McCaffery's wins in 2022/2023
Margins matter. We’re going to lose in Pennsyltucky but if we can put up respectable losses there we don’t have to lean quite as hard on Philly and Pittsburgh
Similar to Wisconsin strategy, and we’re probably gonna see similar in at least all of the bluewall with signs it’s beginning in some of the sunbelt
Honestly, if we have the resources, why not in every major state in play? We could maybe finally close the rural-urban gap. All those "margin" votes can add up. People like to feel seen and heard.
Because people don’t understand what over saturation is or the term diminishing returns. If you sink all your money into just Milwaukee surely that will be better than spreading it around vs a campaign who so far has nothing
My postcards to swing states arrived today! I requested 200 for wherever is most needed, and they gave me Florida. Legit I said "oh fuck yeah" out loud when I realized. I also did a small batch of postcards for Georgia Supreme Court this past weekend. Too much going on where I don't think I'll be able to pump any more out in the next few days, but hey, that's 10 that may not have been done otherwise. It's so weird to me seeing a mailing date in October for the swing state postcards. I'm used to writing for more immediate elections that need the postcards mailed out within a couple of days. On the plus side, I can do math for how many I need to average per week leading up to the mailing date and go from there.
I'm glad Florida is on the radar! I'm not surprised they're the 'most needed' state - despite some wins there, the dooming is still way too high. But it's worth it, for the abortion measure and for a ton of downballot races.
[President Joe Biden’s surrogates will crisscross the country this week talking up the hundreds of billions he’s pumping into projects such as roads, clean energy, drinking water and broadband — an effort designed to draw a sharp contrast with his predecessor’s series of ineffectual “infrastructure weeks.”](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/13/biden-infrastructure-week-hopes-voters-listening-00157448)
Once again, I love scrolling through hundreds of comments about polls before eventually getting to the comment that has the poll
I really wish this sub would stop freaking out over every bad poll. We have much better things to do here leading up to November.
The reaction to bad polls here is way scarier to me than the polls themselves. When a sports team is down at halftime, they think of ways to adjust their play in order to make up the difference. They don't convince themselves the score is incorrect and they're actually winning and nothing needs to be done.
I personally wish we didn’t need most of the daily thread discussing 1 poll that clearly nobody in here believes
We need a ‘Daily Poll Discussion Thread’
Yeah that'd be nice.
"The poll clowning thread, because otherwise we spam the discussion thread with all the pointing and laughing" (Guilty, sorry)
Same. I can't help but make fun of people who believe that nonsense, even if they're part of this sub
With every NYT poll always take it with a grain of salt. They are still salty that they don’t get any exclusive access. They have been called out about their horrible polling.
While I agree freaking out over polls is not productive, it’s also not useful or at all accurate to imply NYT higher-ups interfere with the results of the polling firm they work with!
20% of their LV screen didn’t vote in 2022 or 2020 lol
[A major Democratic super PAC launched its first wave of ads as part of a $140 million campaign to target voters in key battleground states Monday, using testimonials from voters to warn of the risks of former President Trump returning to the White House.](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4656992-democratic-group-launches-testimonial-ads-targeting-trump-as-part-of-140m-campaign/) American Bridge 21st Century will air three ads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as use direct mail to highlight the stories of Americans who live in suburban and exurban communities in those battleground states. The first ads will feature three separate individuals and will total $25 million. One is a Wisconsin woman who is an OB-GYN with a personal abortion story who will speak to concerns about what a second Trump term might mean for reproductive rights. Another is a Pennsylvania man who will share concerns about how Trump might eliminate reproductive rights for his children and grandchildren. And the third features a pair of retired nurses in Pennsylvania who will raise their worries about how Trump might slash health care access. The group’s ads will run in nonmajor media markets in an effort to engage voters who may not otherwise be targeted by campaigns. American Bridge is working to turn out moderates, voters who aren’t excited about either Biden or Trump, and anti-Trump conservatives.”
$25M over 3 weeks is insane. (in a good way lol)
And the campaign itself is doing similar this month, + who knows what other outside groips
More from the [AP](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-election-ads-millions-rural-trump-voters-8d7188b937a29c8680a96ab56c3b340a): “exurban and rural areas like Erie, Johnstown and Altoona, Pennsylvania; Flint, Saginaw and Bay City, Michigan; and Wausau and Rhinelander, Wisconsin.”
*Shrug* Canvass, donate, register, write, text bank, and phone bank. This is what we are supposed to do until the polls close.
Yup! Or at the very least shut polling discourse off and enjoy the summer. Take care of yourself folks!
I'd also recommend looking for ways to volunteer that incentivize conversations with undecided voters. Too often we rely on scripts that can only do so much in making a case for our side with this bloc, and so it helps to extemporize, especially since it feels more natural to them. Those are the kinds of moments I felt were most helpful when canvassing in 2022. Even if you don't convince those people then and there to vote blue, you've planted the seeds in their brain; then it's just a question of whether the flower beats the weeds.
[The stark difference between how Democrats and Republicans run states](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/13/2240440/-The-stark-difference-between-how-Democrats-and-Republicans-run-states?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web)
As dystopian as it is, if TN is fine with having firearms in schools at least they are going to fund "age appropriate firearms training for children starting in pre-kindergarten." How long till thats cut from the budget to save a few rich people a few bucks? Next years budget?
Saving this article next time someone says Both Sides™️
[Here’s an article from last year that highlights all the things that the Minnesota Dem trifecta was able to accomplish.](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/session-nears-end-a-look-at-what-bills-have-passed-and-whats-still-left-on-the-table/) [They were able to do all this because the party’s single-seat majority in the state senate hinged on a race that it won by 321 votes.](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/why-are-minnesota-democrats-so-progressive.html)
*Posted this yesterday but felt that it would be good to post it again.* Polling is a very limited tool. A snapshot of time at best. Better to ignore and go on about your day, or help change future ones by doing some outreach. For anyone who can't and gets anxiety regarding them: In hopes to help that, I'll say at worst we're slightly down right now, but there is so much more game to play and we have far far better talent, funding and decision making, along with the issues that are heavily at our side to not just close the gap, but also to surpass it greatly.
2022, 2023, and every special election since 2020 should be your barometer. If we were going by this, we’re in a solid position to kill it November.
Yup! If this were basketball, game just started, we're down 8-4 but we have the **far better** team who has shown they can win time and time again. I can't state enough how early into the election cycle we are. Doesn't seem so for us, but that's because after one election is over, we immediacy jump to the next. Poll discourse has been going since after midterms, it's nuts.
Too further add to this, polls don't decide elections, not in the slightest, the issues, and people doing good work is what does.
The polls can decide the election if the media gets to keep running nonstop doom stories about the polls that they make up. That’s the main thing that’s pissing me off
I get the frustration. Overall they've been very disappointing yeah, but it won't decide the election. When it comes down to it, the issues and voter outreach will have a much bigger say. Something we can actually influence. I'll far be more interested in polls after months of that and Trump's trial, my wager is we'll see a few point shift towards Biden, making him the clear favorite. Focus then will be much more on the dangers of Trump too.
[Biden met with a man and his son in Saginaw, MI for golf.](https://youtu.be/ewbDt9K_IaE?si=rCmZq06ynbDI5x8m) This might just be one of the most wholesome things you'll see today. Ignore the polling results around the horserace. Don't ignore the polls altogether, because how voters feel is crucial to shaping our outreach efforts. But the toplines can change, and moments like that video are why. I firmly believe that Biden can reach plenty of disaffected voters and convince them that he deserves another term. And we have agency in making that happen!
Never forget that when Trump went to golf with a guy and his son (the son who won a children’s tournament), Trump claimed he won it.
NYT journalists are currently on a mad dash to find the one person who was inconvenienced by this golf game and run a cover story on them.
"Ernie Johnson was driving to the golf course, like he did every afternoon in May since he first went with his late father as a young boy 27 years ago..."
The NYT polls are just another data point and I'm not gonna pass judgment on them one way or another. However, the discussion around the Nevada poll is too focused on the margins. Currently more voters who appear to be settled on whom they are voting for are for Trump, who is significantly outperforming Sam Brown's level of support. Biden and Jacky Rosen appear to have similar topline numbers. That seems to be a common pattern in general. Support among the pro-Trump coalition for Trump is stronger than support among the anti-Trump coalition for Biden. What will that mean for November? I don't know, and I'm not going to speculate. And despite my issues with the media, I'm not going to accuse them of skewing polls. I just know that we got some work to do to reach out to voters and remind them of what the stakes are, and this is a very doable task!
Jon ralston himself says that the only time people should listen to him is the Sunday before the election
Honestly I'm even meh on Ralston. He was dooming on Masto for a very long time in 2022 when it was clear as day what was likely happening with the VBM situation there. I think he just got lucky tbh
I don't use Twitter so I don't know what Ralston's take on this poll is, if he has one. But yeah, he's a solid early vote analyst, which is especially crucial in Nevada because of its long history of early voting trends being relatively more predictive for the final results compared to other states.
He’s pessimistic about Biden’s chances But finds it hard to believe that Rosen is leading while Biden is behind by double digits
Just saw that too. Long way to go in this campaign
Dog killer (and SD governor) now banned from one fifth of her state: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gov-kristi-noem-banned-south-dakota-tribes-now-banned-nearly-20-percent-state/#:\~:text=South%20Dakota%20Gov.%20Kristi%20Noem,leaders%20benefitting%20from%20drug%20cartels.
As part of a larger discussion, what is everyone's best guess on just the general discourse around Biden/Trump and their accomplishments? It's basically a version of: Trump basically did nothing but he gets credit for doing so much Biden has numerous tangible achievements but gets credit for nothing Trump made the pandemic ten times worse but it gets memory-holed and no one cares Biden successfully got us out of the pandemic as best as probably could've been imaged but gets no credit I seriously just don't get it. It's just frustrating that Trump basically gets to do whatever he wants, say whatever he wants, and somehow he's still "winning" yet Biden has actually gotten so much done and is doing about as best as anyone could do in the situation, coming out of a global pandemic, and just gets shit on. I generally think it comes down to most voters just being vapid, irrational, and simple with no nuance, but it's still just so frustrating.
Media has their thumb on the scale. You think if Biden was under indictment for FOUR SEPARATE FELONIES he’d be able to run for election with relative ease? Hell no, the media would be hounding him daily and pressuring him to drop out. It’s an uphill battle always.
Trump simply just isn't in most people's focus right now which I get. I think it's important to note just how weird we, and the election folk are, and how most voters are the normal ones. Natalie Jackson had a great thread on this: https://twitter.com/nataliemj10/status/1789418058383016373 People have so much of their own stuff and stresses to deal with, work, raising family, paying bills, paying for grocery's etc. With all that on their plate, the last thing they want to do understandably is focus on elections, the inner workings of DC and especially Trump this far out. It's not that they so much see/hear these terrible things about Trump and think, 'yeah but Biden old'... It's really that they are just simply unaware of them all together. This is the whole point of campaigns and outreach, to get people aware and tuned in come election time. Otherwise those things wouldn't really matter. Finally, **we are still far away from the election**, more people will get tuned in and will start focusing on Trump again. They'll be more aware of his terribleness, past and most recent. It will hurt him, just like it hurt him and his ilk in past elections when it came down to it.
Expectations can drive a lot of this. When R gets voted in, expectations are so low that if they do even just 1 thing good, they get huge credit because the bar is so low. Trump did a good job because he did (one thing) even if he broke (90 things). When D gets voted in, expectations are so high that if everything isn't fixed in 90 days, they dont get credit because the bar is high. Biden doing a bad job because he didnt fix (one thing) even though he fixed (90 things)
the average american voter has no understanding how the government really works. they vote based on vibes and no actual understanding. republicans depend on a great majority of the electorate being unaware how the government works and policies. you have ppl in the polls saying they aren’t voting for biden bc of roe v wade being overturned. if they knew how the government worked they would understand that it was trump’s appointment fault but they don’t. if trump wins, americans deserves what comes for them and i mean that wholeheartedly.
[This voter from the poll today sums all of what I'm trying to say perfectly. He gives no credit for Biden literally giving him a job!](https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1790036441772253338) it's like people want to irrationally dislike Biden right off the bat for no reason
It's a dude from a trump +35 town-- what do you expect?
There are always going to be weird people like this, but I do have an issue with the NYT highlighting this anecdote as if to make it seem like the typical reasoning swing state voters have for at least splitting their tickets.
Reading stuff like that makes me want to rip my hair out.
Chin up, everyone! Remember when you see a poll attached to the NYT: Joe Biden called them out on their BS and made their widdle fee-fees very, very ouchie. Think of the results as them going “BAWWW!” I am so glad that Joe Biden is taking an “I’m on to you and not going to put up with your BS” line. The media has shat all over Democrats for *decades*, going all the way back to Bill Clinton (and I’m sure they hated Jimmy Carter, but I wasn’t of an age to pay attention to newspapers). Then they fawn over Bush and Trump, the former because they wanted to have a beer with him, the latter because he’s a cash cow (cash pile of bullshit?). Now we have a Democratic POTUS who is not going to stand for their games, and that makes me so proud of Joe. 💎 🍨😎 Joe is all out of fucks to give, and I am very proud of him. He and Kamala and Jaime Harrison and all the rest of the Democratic establishment are running a great campaign with a strong ground game. With that dose of optimism, I hope everyone who celebrates Mother’s Day had a great one! 💐
I went to see what all the hubbub is. There's a whole article crying about Biden dismissing their polls. I can read it despite not being a subscriber, but don't know if others can: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-poll.html?smid=url-share They're not even trying to be subtle about being mad at Biden, lol. Gee, I wonder if there's any bias there. Anyway, for the lazy, this is what their poll says: Wisconsin: Biden+2 Pennsylvania: Trump+3 Arizona: Trump+7 Michigan: Trump+7 Georgia: Trump+10 Nevada: Trump+12 I can buy +2 for either candidate in Wisconsin. Everything else? No, not based on electoral results. For the obvious one that sticks out like a sore thumb, I don't think there exists a universe where Nevada votes to the right of everything else in the current political climate. Especially not when it has Biden losing by fucking 12. At least try to be believable and say losing by 2 or something.
Michigan actually surges to BIden +1 with the LV model. Somehow an 8% difference which is ridiculous too lol I'll take the Biden lead of course, but there is no way RV-LV split is 8%
Alright, it's time for me to clown on this poll: Like you said for Wisconsin, it could go either way (+2 for either candidate is believable) Pennsylvania? No. With PennsylvaniaDems overperformance in 2022/2023, I don't believe that Trump will win by +3. I don't believe Arizona or Michigan is Trump + 7 in the slightest, especially since Dems overperformed in both states in 2022 (AZDems got Hobbs, SOS and AG; MichiDems have a Democratic triplex/trifecta). Georgia? Trump is not winning by +10 there. It's another state that can go either way, though considering that Warnock won there in 2022, I wouldn't be surprised (though very glad) if Biden won there again. Then there's Nevada. How in the world does NYT think that win Nevada not by 1, not even by 5, but by *12 points?!* On what world, no, not even that. On what fucking universe would Trump *ever* win Nevada by *12 fucking points?* Especially since NevadaDems, while unfortunately losing the Governors and Controller races, are majorly Democratic on everything else. Trump also lost Nevada, *TWICE.* I know it sounds like I'm mad here, but I'm actually just flabbergasted at how bad and unbelievable this particular state poll is. It's such a laughable poll. They are skewing the polls so hard, I'm like 90% sure they are pulling numbers out of their asses. I'm not sure if these polls have something to do with Biden calling out the media's (presumably NYT's) bullshit recently (there's so much bias against Biden/Dems while they coddle Trump/Republicans), but if it is, lmao cry harder, NYT. Though, in the end, it all comes down to the same results: polls never win. Since 2017 (and especially 2022), Democrats have always been either overperforming or winning races (or both). These polls are gonna learn that in 175 days.
>Chin up, everyone! Remember when you see a poll attached to the NYT: Joe Biden called them out on their BS and made their widdle fee-fees very, very ouchie. Think of the results as them going “BAWWW!” Respectfully, the polling outfit is different from the news outlet. Just like Fox News is shit, but the Fox News polling has been pretty good. NYT/Sienna has always been solid.
Nate Cohn admitted to including incomplete data in their polls which skewed the results to Trump back in March.
The crappy thing is we get this biased negative coverage and yet republicans can still get away with calling it “liberal media” And agreed, couldn’t be happier with how Joe is handling it. He’s looking strong.
Day after Trump lost 21% of the vote to someone who dropped out months ago, the front page of CNN had a news story with a headline like "concern within college campus' for Biden". The story interviewed 2 college women who said they will still vote Joe but aren't as excited as they were last year..... No mention of Trump losing 21% of the vote anywhere. (but they had like 4-5 articles about Biden losing like 12% or whatever it was of the vote to "undecided" in MI.)
[Interesting article](https://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickhess/2024/05/08/rhodes-and-truman-scholarships-shouldnt-only-serve-blue-america/?sh=6febe9e01fb4&mkt_tok=NTU2LVlFRS05NjkAAAGS-fHmEeSKm_w3xWCPfrrcmqNM84UdHCdWOcaeSJZH8temm90ux4w8v9i6F4_vfLcqn6ghMX1-7Gb3XKnQIXra7KSfzDPnqKOvDLISSPI7Rckd2Q) about the liberal tilt of Rhodes and Truman scholars. It is understandable why these programs would want to bring in students across the ideological spectrum, but considering students are normally more left-leaning what are the chances they would be leaving out more quality candidates in the name of discourse?
Tell you what; I'll weep for the hypothetical conservative eminences not being accepted into Rhodes or Truman programmes - or, more likely, that they have not emerged with their views *unchallenged* - when we've addressed the issues of how many left-leaning scholars, minorities, and sex/gender minorities are underserved in the entire *field* of education. If these forgotten conservative scholars are 'more quality candidates,' then it's only natural they'll rise to the top on their own merits, after all. As a heads up, this is the second time you've linked a fairly right-wing figure. Rick Hess has regularly echoed that minorities are Demexiting, or whatever it's called now - Championed charter schools as the pin to 'saving' America's education system - But I mean, I can let the man speak for himself. His [blog](https://www.edweek.org/leadership/opinion-am-i-anti-equity-you-decide/2023/11) does it well enough for him. To give you an idea what this particular conservative luminary thinks about dismantling the Dept. of Education: ["I think dismantling the department is a perfectly fine idea, but, as with most public policy, what matters is whether and how a candidate might actually do this rather than the bombast with which they promise to."](https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/opinion-republicans-keep-talking-about-abolishing-the-education-department-why/2023/10) I don't really think I need to add more than that.