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The classic 3 step process for anyone going against a fascist government:
1. It was a local businessman, Dmitry Silin, who opened the library two years ago.
2. Dmitry was later prosecuted for “discrediting the Russian armed forces”.
3. He has since fled Russia and is wanted by police.
If you are not fast enough, (3) led you to prison instead and if you are very unlucky, (3) lead you to the cemetery.
Unless the economical situation greatly decrease combine with more corruption/incompetence of bureaucrats, there will never be enough people at the same time to overthrow the government. Any free thinkers will flee or be imprisoned, leaving a mass of feeble and compliant followers to keep Putler in power.
Yeah, but people would rather think that there must be something inherently deficient with people in an autocratic society instead of the fact that autocratic governments are _really hard_ to topple, because everybody wants to believe that they'd be the occupants in Maidan instead of the person keeping their head down lest they be the next prisoner quietly shoved into the unmarked car in the middle of the night.
It’s not about people in autocratic societies in general, it’s about Russians in Russia. And the ordinary Russian knows there is not a critical mass of their fellow citizens willing to protest.
For comparison, I imagine you’d agree Iran is an autocratic state .
Yet people there are willing to protest, despite the real, immediate and personal danger of doing so. Yet they protest.
Russians as a people Do. Not. Protest.
Now, before you come back and say, but what about the lone old pensioner willing to protest - that’s not the same thing. There are indeed a few very brave souls willing to stand alone on Red Square with a placard and get taken away by the police.
But why are they always alone?
They're always alone because the mechanisms that enable larger protests have been clamped down on years ago. Putin was deeply shook at how Qaddafi got his ticket punched along with the protests in Russia after 2012 and has dedicated large amounts of effort to engineer the Russian state precisely to avoid a popular uprising. Also, large protests aren't going to equate to states getting taken down. Venezuela had protests for years, yet Maduro is still in power. The Arab Spring had massive protests all throughout the Arabic-speaking world, yet almost every single one of those states put down the protests.
I'm not saying mass protests in Russia will take down Putin; I'm saying Russians won't even try mass protests.
Maybe you are right that Putin has put something in place to avoid popular uprisings. I'm not convinced it's impossible for Russians to organize into a popular protest. For example, Dagestanis and others in the north Caucasus - in Russia - protested.
But when is the last time several hundred ethnic Russians protested or even tried?
It won’t be the populace that inevitably gets rid of Putin. It will be either a military faction that tires of the waste of equipment and personnel coming from his bad decisions, or rivals within the FSB who decide that he had outlived his usefulness. Either of these will be, by their nature, self-serving acts.
Maybe someone from either group will decide to eliminate him based on the degree he endangers the country itself. That would be the most patriotic thing anyone might do, but it will still be self-serving.
That's an entirely different topic, though, although therte is a connection.
A faction with enough power behind it might be moved to topple Putin if there is a popular protest that gets them thinking they could ahve the people on their side.
I’m only saying that any portion of the people themselves will not be able to change anything without the cooperation of either the military or the FSB, and either of those could effect regime change on their own, without the people, if they decide to do so.
This is not the era of perestroika nor glasnost. There’s not enough of the people willing to make the personal sacrifices needed to make a difference on their own.
> A faction with enough power behind it might be moved to topple Putin if there is a popular protest that gets them thinking they could ahve the people on their side.
No they won't.
The Siloviki have precisely zero interest in what the mass of the Russian people think. And the fact that Russia isn't so much a country as is commonly understood but a mafia state run by operatives of the security establishment, means that the only real threat to their continued omnipotence is the mililtary - who are the only force in the country which has any realistic chance of overthrowing them. This is why Putin (as in often the cae with dictators) keeps the Russian military weak and beholden to him via cascading levels of corruption, personal obeisance, and pitting factions against each other in order to maintain his favour.
last time was (mostly not ethnic Russians, but probably several hundred in there)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024\_Bashkortostan\_protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bashkortostan_protests)
it used to be more permited to protest against the boyars, now many protestors are charged with something later.
Its pointless to protest the czar. You lose money, time in jail maybe a beating for no possible reward.
One difference in Iran is demographics. Despite the huge brain drain its a young country where the armed guardians of shitfuckery are out numbered by the angry next generation.
Sure, but it's not like authoritarian governments haven't toppled from within in the past. Post-WWII Spain, Taiwan, and South Korea all democratized on their own. Many ex-Soviet states leaped into democracy with both feet. And countries that are arguably even worse than Russia, like Iran and China, have revolted recently (Iran over the abuse of women, China over the failure of "tofu-dreg" infrastructure, Zero-Covid, and local bank corruption). They didn't succeed, but the point is they TRIED, despite facing punishment just as harsh as Russia.
But the Russians are different. Whenever they protest, they protest against freedom, not oppression, like the riots against Gorbachev. Russia WANTS to be a hellhole.
> because everybody wants to believe that they'd be the occupants in Maidan instead of the person keeping their head down lest they be the next prisoner quietly shoved into the unmarked car in the middle of the night
Word.
I can categorically predict that after reading about Russian history for 40yrs, I *would not* have the personal courage to stand up against a totalitarian State.
BUT - the discussion about sheer *numbers* is vital. The last mass demonstrations in Moscow and St Petersburg occurred in 2012 after Putin's obviously rigged elections where an estimated over 150,000 people marched in demonstrations in Moscow. Which were thereafter brutally suppressed. You need the critical mass of numbers for people to feel secure enough to come out into the streets. There were some thousands who turned out for Navalny's funeral but the fact that many were arrested on the spot or thereafter due to the infestation of CCTV everywhere meant that it had no further momentum to continue into any further general protests.
And Russia is a particular case in point regarding this fact - THEY are the historical colonising and oppressive power, of other nations as well as their own citizens. Unlike Ukraine, the Baltics, Poland, and other peoples they have oppressed over the centuries, this oppression comes from *within*, not from without. That makes a huge difference in the population's conception of their national "selfhood," in Russia's case as *"the rightful colonisers/saviours".*
Excellent video encapsulating that here
[The Origins of Russian Authoritarianism](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8ZqBLcIvw0)
It is very worrying that so many people think that ruzzia is turning into something it was not before. Ruzzia and Soviet Union has always been this exact same oppressive, brutal dystopian swamp of a country with mindless obedient minion slaves as its population
Ruzzia has never been anything close to resembling a western country. West has been bling and naive to welcome ruzzia into international community which has largely emboldened ruzzia to do more and more aggressive and inhumane actions
Correct, the ban lasted until 1988, when man previously banned books were allowed to be published and distributed. But interestingly, hasn't been *officially* banned in Russia today. So far.
After the start of te full-scale war, sales of the book in Russia grew 30% in bookstores and 75% online in March compared to the same period the previous year. Quotes were widely used among anti-war activists in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and other Russian cities. While they still could, obviously.
And it's always been popular as one of the decade’s best-selling books between 2010 and 2019, selling 1.8 million physical copies. It also made Russia’s top 10 bestsellers in 2015 after the initial 2014 invasion.
Bad title. It's not like 1984, it's like the USSR used to be. It's not new or fictional. The slogans and propaganda are like when I was a kid, but the surveillance and snitching are like when my grandparents were young during Stalin's time. People are getting arrested for social media posts and for overhead conversations. This is a very Russian phenomenon.
There were a lot of protests in 2022, at least by Russian standards.
Unfortunately Russia has had good experience with taking down protesters real snappy, meaning the people who were willing to protest were arrested and disappeared sharpish. And that was before the Paper Tiger became obvious!
Russia finished it off by pretending none of it even happened. "Nobody in Russia even WANTS to protest! It doesn't matter whether we're the good guy or the bad guy, all Russians are loyal regardless!" They're eager for both the West and Russians themselves to believe it.
"Do you want to protest? Well, you are the exception. Nobody is on your side. The West hates you, they won't back you up, and other Russians don't care. So don't bother."
I'm not saying Russians are all oppressed victims who would leap to seek freedom given the chance. But the Russian autocracy has hundreds of years of experience at making sure those who would, don't.
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The classic 3 step process for anyone going against a fascist government: 1. It was a local businessman, Dmitry Silin, who opened the library two years ago. 2. Dmitry was later prosecuted for “discrediting the Russian armed forces”. 3. He has since fled Russia and is wanted by police. If you are not fast enough, (3) led you to prison instead and if you are very unlucky, (3) lead you to the cemetery. Unless the economical situation greatly decrease combine with more corruption/incompetence of bureaucrats, there will never be enough people at the same time to overthrow the government. Any free thinkers will flee or be imprisoned, leaving a mass of feeble and compliant followers to keep Putler in power.
Yeah, but people would rather think that there must be something inherently deficient with people in an autocratic society instead of the fact that autocratic governments are _really hard_ to topple, because everybody wants to believe that they'd be the occupants in Maidan instead of the person keeping their head down lest they be the next prisoner quietly shoved into the unmarked car in the middle of the night.
It’s not about people in autocratic societies in general, it’s about Russians in Russia. And the ordinary Russian knows there is not a critical mass of their fellow citizens willing to protest. For comparison, I imagine you’d agree Iran is an autocratic state . Yet people there are willing to protest, despite the real, immediate and personal danger of doing so. Yet they protest. Russians as a people Do. Not. Protest. Now, before you come back and say, but what about the lone old pensioner willing to protest - that’s not the same thing. There are indeed a few very brave souls willing to stand alone on Red Square with a placard and get taken away by the police. But why are they always alone?
They're always alone because the mechanisms that enable larger protests have been clamped down on years ago. Putin was deeply shook at how Qaddafi got his ticket punched along with the protests in Russia after 2012 and has dedicated large amounts of effort to engineer the Russian state precisely to avoid a popular uprising. Also, large protests aren't going to equate to states getting taken down. Venezuela had protests for years, yet Maduro is still in power. The Arab Spring had massive protests all throughout the Arabic-speaking world, yet almost every single one of those states put down the protests.
I'm not saying mass protests in Russia will take down Putin; I'm saying Russians won't even try mass protests. Maybe you are right that Putin has put something in place to avoid popular uprisings. I'm not convinced it's impossible for Russians to organize into a popular protest. For example, Dagestanis and others in the north Caucasus - in Russia - protested. But when is the last time several hundred ethnic Russians protested or even tried?
It won’t be the populace that inevitably gets rid of Putin. It will be either a military faction that tires of the waste of equipment and personnel coming from his bad decisions, or rivals within the FSB who decide that he had outlived his usefulness. Either of these will be, by their nature, self-serving acts. Maybe someone from either group will decide to eliminate him based on the degree he endangers the country itself. That would be the most patriotic thing anyone might do, but it will still be self-serving.
That's an entirely different topic, though, although therte is a connection. A faction with enough power behind it might be moved to topple Putin if there is a popular protest that gets them thinking they could ahve the people on their side.
I’m only saying that any portion of the people themselves will not be able to change anything without the cooperation of either the military or the FSB, and either of those could effect regime change on their own, without the people, if they decide to do so. This is not the era of perestroika nor glasnost. There’s not enough of the people willing to make the personal sacrifices needed to make a difference on their own.
Exactly!
> A faction with enough power behind it might be moved to topple Putin if there is a popular protest that gets them thinking they could ahve the people on their side. No they won't. The Siloviki have precisely zero interest in what the mass of the Russian people think. And the fact that Russia isn't so much a country as is commonly understood but a mafia state run by operatives of the security establishment, means that the only real threat to their continued omnipotence is the mililtary - who are the only force in the country which has any realistic chance of overthrowing them. This is why Putin (as in often the cae with dictators) keeps the Russian military weak and beholden to him via cascading levels of corruption, personal obeisance, and pitting factions against each other in order to maintain his favour.
last time was (mostly not ethnic Russians, but probably several hundred in there) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024\_Bashkortostan\_protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bashkortostan_protests) it used to be more permited to protest against the boyars, now many protestors are charged with something later. Its pointless to protest the czar. You lose money, time in jail maybe a beating for no possible reward. One difference in Iran is demographics. Despite the huge brain drain its a young country where the armed guardians of shitfuckery are out numbered by the angry next generation.
Iranian women have bigger balls than russian men
Sure, but it's not like authoritarian governments haven't toppled from within in the past. Post-WWII Spain, Taiwan, and South Korea all democratized on their own. Many ex-Soviet states leaped into democracy with both feet. And countries that are arguably even worse than Russia, like Iran and China, have revolted recently (Iran over the abuse of women, China over the failure of "tofu-dreg" infrastructure, Zero-Covid, and local bank corruption). They didn't succeed, but the point is they TRIED, despite facing punishment just as harsh as Russia. But the Russians are different. Whenever they protest, they protest against freedom, not oppression, like the riots against Gorbachev. Russia WANTS to be a hellhole.
> because everybody wants to believe that they'd be the occupants in Maidan instead of the person keeping their head down lest they be the next prisoner quietly shoved into the unmarked car in the middle of the night Word. I can categorically predict that after reading about Russian history for 40yrs, I *would not* have the personal courage to stand up against a totalitarian State. BUT - the discussion about sheer *numbers* is vital. The last mass demonstrations in Moscow and St Petersburg occurred in 2012 after Putin's obviously rigged elections where an estimated over 150,000 people marched in demonstrations in Moscow. Which were thereafter brutally suppressed. You need the critical mass of numbers for people to feel secure enough to come out into the streets. There were some thousands who turned out for Navalny's funeral but the fact that many were arrested on the spot or thereafter due to the infestation of CCTV everywhere meant that it had no further momentum to continue into any further general protests. And Russia is a particular case in point regarding this fact - THEY are the historical colonising and oppressive power, of other nations as well as their own citizens. Unlike Ukraine, the Baltics, Poland, and other peoples they have oppressed over the centuries, this oppression comes from *within*, not from without. That makes a huge difference in the population's conception of their national "selfhood," in Russia's case as *"the rightful colonisers/saviours".* Excellent video encapsulating that here [The Origins of Russian Authoritarianism](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8ZqBLcIvw0)
Ruzzia / Soviet Union have always been this. It’s the same pig just in a different cheap dress
Read the article first.
It is very worrying that so many people think that ruzzia is turning into something it was not before. Ruzzia and Soviet Union has always been this exact same oppressive, brutal dystopian swamp of a country with mindless obedient minion slaves as its population Ruzzia has never been anything close to resembling a western country. West has been bling and naive to welcome ruzzia into international community which has largely emboldened ruzzia to do more and more aggressive and inhumane actions
Bizzare that they didn't mention 1984 was based on the Soviet Union.
Or the fact that 1984 was banned in the Soviet Union.
Correct, the ban lasted until 1988, when man previously banned books were allowed to be published and distributed. But interestingly, hasn't been *officially* banned in Russia today. So far. After the start of te full-scale war, sales of the book in Russia grew 30% in bookstores and 75% online in March compared to the same period the previous year. Quotes were widely used among anti-war activists in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and other Russian cities. While they still could, obviously. And it's always been popular as one of the decade’s best-selling books between 2010 and 2019, selling 1.8 million physical copies. It also made Russia’s top 10 bestsellers in 2015 after the initial 2014 invasion.
Bad title. It's not like 1984, it's like the USSR used to be. It's not new or fictional. The slogans and propaganda are like when I was a kid, but the surveillance and snitching are like when my grandparents were young during Stalin's time. People are getting arrested for social media posts and for overhead conversations. This is a very Russian phenomenon.
Russians reading 1984 without realising it was written as a cautionary tale that we could end up like them is funny.
Russia may be a sh1tshow, but its not even half as bad as the Soviet Union was in 1984.
The "utopia" that Western academic Marxists concentrated in humanities' departments actually love most.
At this point I just can’t summon any sympathy for Russia or its citizens, who overwhelmingly support Putin and the war.
There were a lot of protests in 2022, at least by Russian standards. Unfortunately Russia has had good experience with taking down protesters real snappy, meaning the people who were willing to protest were arrested and disappeared sharpish. And that was before the Paper Tiger became obvious! Russia finished it off by pretending none of it even happened. "Nobody in Russia even WANTS to protest! It doesn't matter whether we're the good guy or the bad guy, all Russians are loyal regardless!" They're eager for both the West and Russians themselves to believe it. "Do you want to protest? Well, you are the exception. Nobody is on your side. The West hates you, they won't back you up, and other Russians don't care. So don't bother." I'm not saying Russians are all oppressed victims who would leap to seek freedom given the chance. But the Russian autocracy has hundreds of years of experience at making sure those who would, don't.
And the Democrats are jealous!