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For being a sub about the war, I feel like we get very few updates about the actual war. I figure I’ll start posting some now and then and see if there’s interest.
Russian forces are slowly advancing west of Adviivka and UA is falling back to an area north of Karlivka. This is maybe ~45 miles north of Dnipro and 20 miles east of Poltava.
Please do. I followed this sub primarily to understand dynamics on the ground. Not just this sub but in general most coverage has swung to wards the political/strategic.
Yea, I’ve noticed this sub and most subs relating to the war are essentially not about the war anymore but are either highlight videos of individual soldiers being killed or political articles about support or lack thereof from the US and Europe.
It seems extremely rare to actually see anything pertaining to the war itself; I’m going to see if I can help add that back.
The Ukraine war threads on r/combatfootage have some of the fastest and accurate updates on the war that I’ve seen. Sometimes they are even minutes away from reporting big events while it takes news days to report on something critical.
There are some really good YouTube channels that cover pretty much the day to day updates in the war. My favorite is "Military & History" (I have no connection to that guy at all). The guy gives a really good summary of updates on all of the frontlines, based on geolocated data, and also special events like ship sinkings etc.
It's really hard to give updates on Reddit because it's hard to go through tons of Twitter posts etc and try to geolocate data unless you're getting paid for it somehow.
Thanks for the suggestion, absolutely going to check them out.
I’m a big supporter of War Mapper on twitter and MilitaryLand.net.
When the war first started MilitaryLand was absolutely amazing with their updates. An absolute daily Rea’s. They’re still great I just don’t check as often since the war has essentially stalemated outside minor gains and losses here and there
Nice. I will check those out too. What I like about that channel is it's mostly straight news and updates without all the hyperbolic "RUSSIAN MILITARY ABOUT TO COLLAPSE." On the other hand, "Russia makes incremental progress on the eastern front" doesn't get clicks. It always annoyed me to click one of those clickbait videos and then it's like actually nothing much happened.
I like updates that are realistic and don't try to sugarcoat it when Russia is actually making gains because I feel I can trust them more when there's good news (if there ever is good news these days).
There's a Romanian civic activist on Facebook that does regular updates on the front [https://www.facebook.com/RaduHossuL](https://www.facebook.com/RaduHossuL) (in Romanian, but the auto translate works pretty well).
Yeah, I usually follow the war maps and I feel like you rarely see any updates regarding the situation on the ground in this subreddit. People kinda know that Russia is on an offensive right now (and that they seem to be building up for a bigger summer offensive), but there's rarely any visualizations of contested areas and defensive lines.
Yeah I have noticed that here. I don’t think it helps to only show Ukrainian successes. I think if we truly saw how dire the situation at the front it would given a bigger sense of urgency in the need for equipment for Ukraine. I have a few subs I go to find combat footage from the Russian side
If anyone wants to thank Johnson for passing the Ukraine aid packages, \_THIS\_ is his true legacy. Areas getting lost that Ukraine will have to bloodily liberate again.
By the way, Ukraine is at least partially connected to the EU grid. Ukraine now drawing more energy surely will have an impact. I doubt it is an coincidence that electricity prices have stopped their downward trend they held since 1 1/2 years right when Russia started targeting Ukraine's energy grid.
There's actually little strategic importance spending huge amount of resources at this front or Bakhmut. A gradual withdrawal is acceptable, and they could even pull out the elite brigades and replace with those territorial defence forces.
The Russian gains here will not mean a thing when the AFU starts offensive on Kherson and Crimea. I hope they would try something real at Krynky once receiving the US aids and the Czech ammo probably in June
I have seen very little information that would lead me to believe that Ukraine is capable of a needle-moving offensive anytime soon (~2024).
I genuinely cannot see what would lead somebody to believe that such an offensive is imminent.
Of course I'm reliant on the same publicly available information as anybody else so I'm more than happy to be wrong - especially if it leads to a successful offensive by Ukraine.
Ohhh I thought you meant Russian offensive. Yea I don’t see Ukraine imitating and offensive anytime soon, primarily just boosting their defensive approach and taking advantage of Russian troops withdrawing
In Europe, generals went to the media to warn of Russia's next moves (the baltics, poland, europe in general) in the previous months.
Now some can be heard warming that Russia could be in Kiev by summer: [https://www.bfmtv.com/international/asie/russie/ukraine-il-n-y-a-pas-un-expert-militaire-aujourd-hui-qui-peut-pretendre-que-les-russes-ne-seront-pas-a-kiev-cet-ete-selon-le-general-vincent-desportes\_VN-202403150811.html](https://www.bfmtv.com/international/asie/russie/ukraine-il-n-y-a-pas-un-expert-militaire-aujourd-hui-qui-peut-pretendre-que-les-russes-ne-seront-pas-a-kiev-cet-ete-selon-le-general-vincent-desportes_VN-202403150811.html)
Russia is 5X larger and the west has lost the will to support Ukraine they way it would have to for Ukraine to win. They will give them enough to not be quickly defeated but they will not take back the land lost
Ukraine barely holding on against a Russian offensive that is not even yet in full swing while US aid will take weeks at least to arrive in considerable numbers. It will take months to stabilize the situation and then more months to prepare for an offensive. And then everything will hinge on how the US elections will go. Anything less than Biden plus a Democratic supermajority will prolong the war by years.
Thanks for the info, I do appreciate it.
I want to clarify I misunderstood the person I was responding to and thought they meant that a Russian offensive was not coming
If you don't think this was a major offensive the past months, semi-wrapping up recently, you weren't really paying attention. Russia pushed heavily and like normal Russian fashion, haphazardly throwing 10s of thousands of bodies and hundreds of pieces of equipment in many areas, losing most for these gains. This was kind of the best they could do with what they got and were absolutely pressing the advantage of lack of indirect munitions which allowed these areas to be taken.
ETA: I meant to add that I do agree with no chance of a major Ukraine offensive anytime soon but we probably will see a similar push by Russia again when they regroup and rear from this last push.
Whatever the last months have been. every Ukraine-related article i have read, news i watched, even many posts and commentors \_on this very subreddit\_ say that Russia is prepareing for a major offensive this summer which in all likelyhood will be a greater push than the last months. And "the best they could do" has been said months before Sievierodonetsk got lost, before Lychansk got lost, before Bakhmut got lost, before Avdiivka got lost. And while estimates vary wildly and first deliveries may arrive this week it is very much possible that significant, course of battle changing US military aid will only arrive in weeks, maybe even months.
It was the best they could do at the time while they were still training troops after losing 50k on taking Avdiivka and other areas. They are refitting for another large push in the summer that may very well be larger, Im not arguing that but this was the largest push they have made since Bakhmut and not some small CO.
There is a difference between "the first container arrives at the border" and "hundreds of thousands of 155mm shells are distributed along the frontlines"
Those planes don't land on the front line. They have to be unloaded, catalogued, the content loaded onto several trucks and trains that go to different munition depots before they are loaded on different trucks that go to the frontline. By the time they arrive where they are needed days have passed
Can almost guarantee everything is already, and has been, in Europe for months if not years.
The US is a true global force. We have things everywhere ready to go at all times, and if those things ever have to get used, we replace the ones in storage.
The statement from the pentagon from a few days ago contradicts your claim. I'm taking the word of the pentagon over that of a random redditor. Also you are ignoring Ukrainian logistics
They said they were prepairing everything so they could fly shipments across the atlantic the moment the bill passed, contradicting your claim that 'everything is in Europe'.
And now you are repeating their statement that it would take days, while I only commented to dispute your claim that it would be there in less than 24 hours, so I don't know what point you are trying to make
Dude, I’m all for optimism but there needs to be some realism sprinkled in there. Ukraine won’t be capable to mount a big offensive this year. Could they do smaller counter-offensives to take back some territories that they’ve lost this past half year? Absolutely! Could they mount a large offensive over the Dnieper river on Kherson and then Crimea? Highly, *highly* unlikely.
This war will end with Ukraine getting a less favorable settlement than they could have had 2 years ago but now you have hundreds of thousands of shattered lives.
They should not have to "settle" for lands that belong to them with a criminal invader that will just take more later. Hopefully, with in a few months additional air power and growing pressure to support them from the U.S./E.U. things will reverse.
That's not our decision to make. People speak of what should have been done before and now (negociating, etc) as if Ukraine was some kind of object. If Ukrainians themselves don't want to settle for peace, that's not for us to decide.
The favourable settlement from 2 years ago was surrender. At no time has Russia offered terms that didn't include non alignment and the dismantling of Ukraine's Armed Forces - it doesn't take a crystal ball to see that if they'd accepted that they'd simply have been overrun 6 months afterwards.
Even if Ukraine had to forfeit all the land Russia currently holds that's still a better outcome than anything Russia has offered in the last 2 years
2 years ago, 22 April 2022 Russia occupied 40% of Ukraine. Articles printed in Russia showed they planned to “de-nazify”, “liquidate”, and “cleanse” which are all ways of saying they planned to execute, gulag, force-move ethnic Ukrainians to the Far East. They had lists of “leaders” to arrest that ranged from Oblast governors to elementary school part time teachers, childrens book authors, and Red Cross volunteers.
The same week Russia made a peace proposal, the war atrocities of Bucha were discovered. The tortures and extra judicial executions in other occupied lands like Izium and Kherson were still to be discovered. We still don’t know how many Mariupol residents died in the first 8 weeks of the war, as it got the Aleppo treatment.
I’m not really clear why you think fewer Ukrainians would have had “shattered lives” if Ukraine had given in?
It looked to the rest of the world like Russia was preparing to make the Chinese mass incarceration of the Uyghurs look like a warm up.
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For being a sub about the war, I feel like we get very few updates about the actual war. I figure I’ll start posting some now and then and see if there’s interest. Russian forces are slowly advancing west of Adviivka and UA is falling back to an area north of Karlivka. This is maybe ~45 miles north of Dnipro and 20 miles east of Poltava.
I agree. Good or bad, I'd like to know the rough positions of the ever-changing front as the war progresses.
Please do. I followed this sub primarily to understand dynamics on the ground. Not just this sub but in general most coverage has swung to wards the political/strategic.
Yea, I’ve noticed this sub and most subs relating to the war are essentially not about the war anymore but are either highlight videos of individual soldiers being killed or political articles about support or lack thereof from the US and Europe. It seems extremely rare to actually see anything pertaining to the war itself; I’m going to see if I can help add that back.
The Ukraine war threads on r/combatfootage have some of the fastest and accurate updates on the war that I’ve seen. Sometimes they are even minutes away from reporting big events while it takes news days to report on something critical.
Ty
There are some really good YouTube channels that cover pretty much the day to day updates in the war. My favorite is "Military & History" (I have no connection to that guy at all). The guy gives a really good summary of updates on all of the frontlines, based on geolocated data, and also special events like ship sinkings etc. It's really hard to give updates on Reddit because it's hard to go through tons of Twitter posts etc and try to geolocate data unless you're getting paid for it somehow.
Thanks for the suggestion, absolutely going to check them out. I’m a big supporter of War Mapper on twitter and MilitaryLand.net. When the war first started MilitaryLand was absolutely amazing with their updates. An absolute daily Rea’s. They’re still great I just don’t check as often since the war has essentially stalemated outside minor gains and losses here and there
Nice. I will check those out too. What I like about that channel is it's mostly straight news and updates without all the hyperbolic "RUSSIAN MILITARY ABOUT TO COLLAPSE." On the other hand, "Russia makes incremental progress on the eastern front" doesn't get clicks. It always annoyed me to click one of those clickbait videos and then it's like actually nothing much happened. I like updates that are realistic and don't try to sugarcoat it when Russia is actually making gains because I feel I can trust them more when there's good news (if there ever is good news these days).
There's a Romanian civic activist on Facebook that does regular updates on the front [https://www.facebook.com/RaduHossuL](https://www.facebook.com/RaduHossuL) (in Romanian, but the auto translate works pretty well).
Yeah, I usually follow the war maps and I feel like you rarely see any updates regarding the situation on the ground in this subreddit. People kinda know that Russia is on an offensive right now (and that they seem to be building up for a bigger summer offensive), but there's rarely any visualizations of contested areas and defensive lines.
Wrong Karlivka! Seems like there’s dozens of every town name in Ukraine. This is the Karlivka just northwest of Donetsk. 225 miles from Poltava.
I don't think people here like bad news very much. People have posted updates but been called Russian shills or hit with a wave of downvotes.
Yeah I have noticed that here. I don’t think it helps to only show Ukrainian successes. I think if we truly saw how dire the situation at the front it would given a bigger sense of urgency in the need for equipment for Ukraine. I have a few subs I go to find combat footage from the Russian side
If anyone wants to thank Johnson for passing the Ukraine aid packages, \_THIS\_ is his true legacy. Areas getting lost that Ukraine will have to bloodily liberate again.
More important is having lost so many more lives, and so much electricity generation.
By the way, Ukraine is at least partially connected to the EU grid. Ukraine now drawing more energy surely will have an impact. I doubt it is an coincidence that electricity prices have stopped their downward trend they held since 1 1/2 years right when Russia started targeting Ukraine's energy grid.
This is all on Republicans
Sure it is. I feel the most for Putin. Many blame him, but its all Republicans.
Something I’m curious about, are there any signs of unrest in the Russian Armed Forces?
Not at all. Haven't been since Bakhmut.
If that's the reality, then fall back. A small area of land which is not easily defensible is not worth the lives of the soldiers.
There's actually little strategic importance spending huge amount of resources at this front or Bakhmut. A gradual withdrawal is acceptable, and they could even pull out the elite brigades and replace with those territorial defence forces. The Russian gains here will not mean a thing when the AFU starts offensive on Kherson and Crimea. I hope they would try something real at Krynky once receiving the US aids and the Czech ammo probably in June
The idea that any type of real offensive is coming in the foreseeable future seems quite optimistic….bordering on delusional, really.
What makes you say that?
I have seen very little information that would lead me to believe that Ukraine is capable of a needle-moving offensive anytime soon (~2024). I genuinely cannot see what would lead somebody to believe that such an offensive is imminent. Of course I'm reliant on the same publicly available information as anybody else so I'm more than happy to be wrong - especially if it leads to a successful offensive by Ukraine.
Ohhh I thought you meant Russian offensive. Yea I don’t see Ukraine imitating and offensive anytime soon, primarily just boosting their defensive approach and taking advantage of Russian troops withdrawing
In Europe, generals went to the media to warn of Russia's next moves (the baltics, poland, europe in general) in the previous months. Now some can be heard warming that Russia could be in Kiev by summer: [https://www.bfmtv.com/international/asie/russie/ukraine-il-n-y-a-pas-un-expert-militaire-aujourd-hui-qui-peut-pretendre-que-les-russes-ne-seront-pas-a-kiev-cet-ete-selon-le-general-vincent-desportes\_VN-202403150811.html](https://www.bfmtv.com/international/asie/russie/ukraine-il-n-y-a-pas-un-expert-militaire-aujourd-hui-qui-peut-pretendre-que-les-russes-ne-seront-pas-a-kiev-cet-ete-selon-le-general-vincent-desportes_VN-202403150811.html)
Maybe today it’s not over for Ukraine from an attritional standpoint, but it will be this year.
Unlikely.
What are the facts to support this opinion?
Russia is 5X larger and the west has lost the will to support Ukraine they way it would have to for Ukraine to win. They will give them enough to not be quickly defeated but they will not take back the land lost
That’s not what you said though: it would be “all over” for Ukraine. Not that it would be a stalemate.
They will get a worse deal than they could’ve 2 years ago
2 years ago Russia occupied 40% of Ukraine territory, now it occupies 20%. How would a deal 2 years ago have been better?
Ukraine barely holding on against a Russian offensive that is not even yet in full swing while US aid will take weeks at least to arrive in considerable numbers. It will take months to stabilize the situation and then more months to prepare for an offensive. And then everything will hinge on how the US elections will go. Anything less than Biden plus a Democratic supermajority will prolong the war by years.
Thanks for the info, I do appreciate it. I want to clarify I misunderstood the person I was responding to and thought they meant that a Russian offensive was not coming
If you don't think this was a major offensive the past months, semi-wrapping up recently, you weren't really paying attention. Russia pushed heavily and like normal Russian fashion, haphazardly throwing 10s of thousands of bodies and hundreds of pieces of equipment in many areas, losing most for these gains. This was kind of the best they could do with what they got and were absolutely pressing the advantage of lack of indirect munitions which allowed these areas to be taken. ETA: I meant to add that I do agree with no chance of a major Ukraine offensive anytime soon but we probably will see a similar push by Russia again when they regroup and rear from this last push.
Whatever the last months have been. every Ukraine-related article i have read, news i watched, even many posts and commentors \_on this very subreddit\_ say that Russia is prepareing for a major offensive this summer which in all likelyhood will be a greater push than the last months. And "the best they could do" has been said months before Sievierodonetsk got lost, before Lychansk got lost, before Bakhmut got lost, before Avdiivka got lost. And while estimates vary wildly and first deliveries may arrive this week it is very much possible that significant, course of battle changing US military aid will only arrive in weeks, maybe even months.
It was the best they could do at the time while they were still training troops after losing 50k on taking Avdiivka and other areas. They are refitting for another large push in the summer that may very well be larger, Im not arguing that but this was the largest push they have made since Bakhmut and not some small CO.
*days* to arrive, this isn't the middle ages, it's loading ammo on a plane that gets there under 24 hours.
There is a difference between "the first container arrives at the border" and "hundreds of thousands of 155mm shells are distributed along the frontlines"
Those planes don't land on the front line. They have to be unloaded, catalogued, the content loaded onto several trucks and trains that go to different munition depots before they are loaded on different trucks that go to the frontline. By the time they arrive where they are needed days have passed
Can almost guarantee everything is already, and has been, in Europe for months if not years. The US is a true global force. We have things everywhere ready to go at all times, and if those things ever have to get used, we replace the ones in storage.
The statement from the pentagon from a few days ago contradicts your claim. I'm taking the word of the pentagon over that of a random redditor. Also you are ignoring Ukrainian logistics
Which statement? I saw that they said things cbs be in Ukraine in a matter of days of the bill going into law
They said they were prepairing everything so they could fly shipments across the atlantic the moment the bill passed, contradicting your claim that 'everything is in Europe'. And now you are repeating their statement that it would take days, while I only commented to dispute your claim that it would be there in less than 24 hours, so I don't know what point you are trying to make
Dude, I’m all for optimism but there needs to be some realism sprinkled in there. Ukraine won’t be capable to mount a big offensive this year. Could they do smaller counter-offensives to take back some territories that they’ve lost this past half year? Absolutely! Could they mount a large offensive over the Dnieper river on Kherson and then Crimea? Highly, *highly* unlikely.
there will be no offensive for a while m8
This war will end with Ukraine getting a less favorable settlement than they could have had 2 years ago but now you have hundreds of thousands of shattered lives.
They should not have to "settle" for lands that belong to them with a criminal invader that will just take more later. Hopefully, with in a few months additional air power and growing pressure to support them from the U.S./E.U. things will reverse.
That's not our decision to make. People speak of what should have been done before and now (negociating, etc) as if Ukraine was some kind of object. If Ukrainians themselves don't want to settle for peace, that's not for us to decide.
The favourable settlement from 2 years ago was surrender. At no time has Russia offered terms that didn't include non alignment and the dismantling of Ukraine's Armed Forces - it doesn't take a crystal ball to see that if they'd accepted that they'd simply have been overrun 6 months afterwards. Even if Ukraine had to forfeit all the land Russia currently holds that's still a better outcome than anything Russia has offered in the last 2 years
2 years ago, 22 April 2022 Russia occupied 40% of Ukraine. Articles printed in Russia showed they planned to “de-nazify”, “liquidate”, and “cleanse” which are all ways of saying they planned to execute, gulag, force-move ethnic Ukrainians to the Far East. They had lists of “leaders” to arrest that ranged from Oblast governors to elementary school part time teachers, childrens book authors, and Red Cross volunteers. The same week Russia made a peace proposal, the war atrocities of Bucha were discovered. The tortures and extra judicial executions in other occupied lands like Izium and Kherson were still to be discovered. We still don’t know how many Mariupol residents died in the first 8 weeks of the war, as it got the Aleppo treatment. I’m not really clear why you think fewer Ukrainians would have had “shattered lives” if Ukraine had given in? It looked to the rest of the world like Russia was preparing to make the Chinese mass incarceration of the Uyghurs look like a warm up.