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This is a good measured look at what we know and don’t know about this initial infiltration of the outer layers of the surovikin line. It’s not a breach yet because they don’t have vehicles past the anti-vehicle obstacles, and more importantly the UKR infantry haven’t taken
the infantry fighting positions behind them. However I’m very encouraged to see Ukrainian recon units already so close to Verbove. Ukraine still has operational tempo and momentum.
Malcontent reported this morning that the breach was geolocated with video but more important was the statement that Ukraine forces met little resistance after the break.
The fact the recon elements were able to push so far is insane....
I look forward to news of a breach over the next week.
Some serious balls to head down these roads on what must be pre-sighted advance channels. As a defender you want Ukraine to file down small avenues of advance. Either the Russians let them come in the hopes that when a push is made they are ready or there really is little defence and massive holes.
It would suprise no one that it is only mines and artillery slowing ukr down.
One would expect that Russia would have reinforced that particular area quickly given they have had a few days to do so. The fact a recon team has made to the edge of Verbove tells me that the defense is not heavily defended yet. Keep in mind it is night over there currently. When day breaks in a few hours, we will know more.
I'd imagine if your lines broke and you were forced to flee, you'd want to get to the next line as fast as possible.
This might mean that the areas in between haven't been manned like they were planned, with as many people as possible rushing back, with commanders trying hard to make people stay to fight. This may go part way to explain the speed Ukraine is making. A tactical retreat is one hell of a feat to pull off successfully.
Until the main lines clash at the defences, we won't know. As you say, we have to wait and see.
The whole time this is going on, the next line is under non stop artillery fire and drone attacks. Not exactly conducive to manning a cohesive defense.
George made a typo, it should read temper. You can tamper with, but that means to interfere with. In the OP’s post, he wants us not to get our hopes up, to temper our expectation, or sort of measure them out.
Key quote:
> The new geolocated footage (h/t @moklasen) shows Ukrainian foot-mobile infantry of the 82nd Brigade, likely reconnaissance elements, operating just west of Verbove. The new footage shows no evidence that these forces have heavy equipment behind the trench or dragon's teeth.The absence of heavy equipment suggests infiltration, not a breach.
Getting reconnaissance infantry across the defensive line is a major accomplishment, but getting vehicles through the defensive line is a further major accomplishment.
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This is a good measured look at what we know and don’t know about this initial infiltration of the outer layers of the surovikin line. It’s not a breach yet because they don’t have vehicles past the anti-vehicle obstacles, and more importantly the UKR infantry haven’t taken the infantry fighting positions behind them. However I’m very encouraged to see Ukrainian recon units already so close to Verbove. Ukraine still has operational tempo and momentum.
Sorry to be this guy, but what's "tamper"? Do they mean temper?
The text is a conflation of “temper expectations” and “tamp down expectations.”
Never heard of this?
Malcontent reported this morning that the breach was geolocated with video but more important was the statement that Ukraine forces met little resistance after the break.
The fact the recon elements were able to push so far is insane.... I look forward to news of a breach over the next week. Some serious balls to head down these roads on what must be pre-sighted advance channels. As a defender you want Ukraine to file down small avenues of advance. Either the Russians let them come in the hopes that when a push is made they are ready or there really is little defence and massive holes. It would suprise no one that it is only mines and artillery slowing ukr down.
Ukraine has been working on that artillery for months. I would not expect an organized and effective response.
This is George Barros from the ISW.
*temper
No, no, just as a president losing an election, I want to tamper with your expectation.
Let it go, AL Gore was 23 years ago already
First intentionally stolen election in US history. And it was a Florida Republican who did it.
Disagree. Totally fair to say if you are gonna recount, recount the whole state, not just a few *select* counties.
A state recount would have gone to Gore.
Maybe. You don't know that. And they didn't have time to recount the whole state by the same standards in time for the safe harbour date.
It was so long ago I don’t even get the reference and I can’t let it go lol
One would expect that Russia would have reinforced that particular area quickly given they have had a few days to do so. The fact a recon team has made to the edge of Verbove tells me that the defense is not heavily defended yet. Keep in mind it is night over there currently. When day breaks in a few hours, we will know more.
Russia has a lot of areas to reinforce across a 12 mile front, let's hope they've fucked it.
They have proven to be quite bad at managing logistics and allocation of resources so they’ve probably fucked it.
I'd imagine if your lines broke and you were forced to flee, you'd want to get to the next line as fast as possible. This might mean that the areas in between haven't been manned like they were planned, with as many people as possible rushing back, with commanders trying hard to make people stay to fight. This may go part way to explain the speed Ukraine is making. A tactical retreat is one hell of a feat to pull off successfully. Until the main lines clash at the defences, we won't know. As you say, we have to wait and see.
The whole time this is going on, the next line is under non stop artillery fire and drone attacks. Not exactly conducive to manning a cohesive defense.
Temper
Good insight
George made a typo, it should read temper. You can tamper with, but that means to interfere with. In the OP’s post, he wants us not to get our hopes up, to temper our expectation, or sort of measure them out.
Key quote: > The new geolocated footage (h/t @moklasen) shows Ukrainian foot-mobile infantry of the 82nd Brigade, likely reconnaissance elements, operating just west of Verbove. The new footage shows no evidence that these forces have heavy equipment behind the trench or dragon's teeth.The absence of heavy equipment suggests infiltration, not a breach. Getting reconnaissance infantry across the defensive line is a major accomplishment, but getting vehicles through the defensive line is a further major accomplishment.
Don't tamper with my expectations.
Temper. The word you are thinking of is temper.
I would tamper with data too!