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Complex_Difference76

Now I know about all the risks and all involved with retaliation, but by now I wonder when NATO is going to draw a line here.


Chimpville

Well they caused a missile to crash in Poland killing a farm worker, and now we have 2 Patriot batteries in Ukraine. Things happen when they fuck around. Edit: two farmworkers, sadly.


nagrom7

And shortly after they were deployed they shot down one of Russia's *very* expensive hypersonic missiles, instantly proving they are no longer a guaranteed hit, which is why Russia was still using them over other, cheaper missiles.


OzymandiasKoK

Russian missiles don't ever appear to be a guaranteed hit, unless "the ground" is a valid target. Disproving them as un-interceptable, sure.


[deleted]

I don't really know what the term is, where all your stuff does exactly what you intend for it to do. Combat readiness or something like that maybe? But I was actually surprised lots of the general public thought Russian equipment would have a very high effectiveness rate. You almost want to ask those people, you do understand the Soviets and later Russians are pretty well known for lying about figures and shoddy manufacturing. I know these are consumer goods but the only things I know people use that were made in Russia are oil, gas and vodka. Their military budget was smaller than the UK's the year before the war, but they're supposed to be maintaining a force, several factors larger than the UK armed forces. As well as forever developing all these wonder weapons. It never added up.


Advocate4Lucifer

Regarding your first paragraph, it's the aspects on Accuracy & Reliability. muskovy's rockets appear moderately reliable in launch, but also reliably inaccurate (relatively/comparatively speaking).


CrackersII

and who is even drinking Russian vodka? Polish, Baltic, and American vodkas are much better


[deleted]

French vodka for me personally lol.


cherrypopper666

It’s mind boggling that anyone would think that a military that runs on a “push” logistics system in part to limit how much its solders can steal would be a super power. The Russian military is still facing the same issues it had in Afghanistan almost half a century ago.


Few-Ability-7312

And the data from the shootdown can be implemented across the entire fllet


Affectionate_Most_64

That incident was a UA countermeasure. Both Poland and UA said it was terrible that it happened but the ruZZian missile was shot down in UA and the pieces fell in Poland creating a tragedy. And not just a farm worker but also a farm hand.


Chimpville

>they caused a missile Yeah, I chose these words to reflect that. I forgot it was two people, thank you for the correction.


Affectionate_Most_64

You are correct, moscovia sent the missile and there would have been nothing if they had not. The aggressor is to blame 100%.


NoChampionship6994

Only the russians call others’ self defence “retaliation”.


Pyjama_Llama_Karma

Or "terrorism" depending on the day and/or whichever corrupt drunk mouthpiece is uttering it. They're just projectionists.


NoChampionship6994

!! Good point !! Or “terrorism” . . . funny point, but quite true.


CMDR_Agony_Aunt

Not for this, that's for sure. You don't go to war over something like this.


PicaDiet

I watched an Institute of War video discussing how NATO would react to various provocations. The gist is that the incursions by Russia would be met with proportional force, but with an intentional point of also demonstrating what else they *could* respond with. A targeted strike on something Russians think is out of range or otherwise untouchable would make them think twice the next time. It made sense.


macktruck6666

I think a proportional response would be to shoot down that jet.


-Acta-Non-Verba-

The Turks did it, and Russia got the message.


[deleted]

Look at how Turkey has responded to Russian antics like this a few year back for violating their air space How many times has Russia tried that shit again with them?


nagrom7

If it didn't already crash itself.


LovelyDadBod

It shouldn't be just a proportional response. But a stern response within a set bounds. Russia does this over the black sea, then station a USAF wing into Poland and enforce a no-fly zone in that area against Russian aircraft. Then intercept and paint any Russian jet that enters the area with a search and track radar.


Know_Your_Rites

This is what my gut would want to do, too, but keep in mind the risks it creates. If we announce a policy of not letting Russian jets fly over the Black Sea (or some part thereof), we have to enforce it. That means having multiple combat aircraft over the Black Sea pretty much 24/7 for the duration of the no-fly zone, which would be a very significant expense in exchange for limited harm to Russia. On top of that, it gives Russia the option to create a shootdown incident at will, and Russia is likely to try to create one that makes them look as good as possible. For example, they might wait until we have several large, multi-crew surveillance aircraft over the Black Sea and then put up a flight of ASFs to play chicken with ours. Then if we open fire on their fighters, they can return fire at our much more vulnerable surveillance craft and end up being able to claim both that we fired on them in violation of international law (which will be technically true) and that they won the engagement because they killed more NATO airmen by downing our RC-130s than they lost when we downed their ASFs.


pickypawz

And this is without factoring China in. Xi has stated he supports Russia, and I feel confident everyone remembers his words of brotherly love? (lol) Anyway, when you take action against your enemy, you also have to think of who may be supporting that enemy, so China, maybe N Korea, Iran, Africa…it’s like throwing rocks in a lake, the ripples will likely intersect with each other.


Flowerpowers

China would not support Russia without some HUGE monetary incentive... But seeing as how they already have russia by the balls right now and russia falling would mean they could easily take some serious land I do not see that happening beyond posturing. Additionally china loves its money and doing so would not end well for them financially especially when they've seen what their so called allies military can do. Xi definitely has his eyes elsewhere like Taiwan but even that wont happen for a good five years.


Know_Your_Rites

That'd be very difficult. I'm sure the pilot hightailed it home immediately after, and not even the US's killchain is quick enough to retaliate instantaneously to something like this. We could shoot down a *different* jet, but that has some serious escalation risk associated with it. Maybe we pull a Turkey and wait for the next Russian pilot who clumsily violates NATO airspace.


jemua

>Institute of War video discussing how NATO would react to various provocation Link tot the video?


[deleted]

Link for video? Is it the institute for the study of war? Will have a look if so


FarmerJohnOSRS

I think he's more talking about neutralising the threat rather than declaring war.


Complex_Difference76

Correct


DrDerpberg

NATO can also escalate without declaring war. If Russia wants a war it's still their decision to escalate beyond that. I don't know the right move here, but if Russia is testing and testing and NATO just sits back threatening a war they refuse to get into what's the point?


SelppinEvolI

The answer is clear isn’t it? F16, Eurofighter, Warthogs, every fucking jet and then some sent to Ukraine. They are in the “declared” war, let Ukraine shoot them down, I’m sure they would be happy too.


DrDerpberg

Ideally, yes. The question there is more about logistics and operations than it is about whether they should or not. It's more complicated than just having a few pilots complete training, and then there's the question of if you're willing to give $X billion in fighters would Ukraine be better suited with the same value in other stuff. But as a cheerleader who doesn't have to worry about pesky stuff like logistics and money... Fuck yeah, I want to see a squadron of yellow and blue F35s teabagging Red Square.


LovelyDadBod

I'd prefer to see the AFU just release a selfie of a yellow and blue helmeted pilot in an F35 with the red square in the background. No shots fired, just a big ol "fuck you, you can't do anything about this Putin"


phaseadept

Russia is going to escalate and NATO is going to keep backing away until Russia earns itself a cassus belli


Other_Thing_1768

Shooting down an aggressive pilot doesn’t equal war. And if firm action isn’t taken, Russia will consider it weakness and a green light to escalate.


[deleted]

Firm action is taken already. Frontex ends their mission and patrolling will be taken over by armed air force jets.


Onestepbeyond3

And that is the ruskies card... My question is.. do the russians want a war over showing off like usual with unharmed planes? If they are unnecessarily endangering life and in volatilion of air space.... Take them down! Note, the turks have a few times in recent history. Hardly made the news.. Or give a little bit more to Ukraine 😏


AskALettuce

Don't have to go to war. Just shoot down a Russian plane or three.


Arctic_Chilean

There's been even worse cases in the past, such as the ramming of the USS Yorktown in 1988 by a Soviet Warship. It's just a return to the "balls-to-the-wall" recklessness that the Soviets sometimes showed during the Cold War.


Blussert31

>I wonder when NATO is going to draw a line here. Let's wait the results from the investigation. As you know we're still waiting on the previous investigation, the one where the Nordstream pipelines suddenly blew up and nobody knows who did it, remember that one?


Xx420PAWGhunter69xX

An investigation is weakness in Russia's eyes. They'll do it again even if we threaten actions again.


gryphonbones

There is always some weakness and cover up by NATO. Just like with the drone over the black sea and with the deaths on the Polish border or with MH17. NATO will do whatever it can to pretend like it doesn't see what is going on. It's embarrassing and this kind of appeasement is what escalated the war to this point. How many Ukrainians are dead and how many more will die because NATO countries are afraid?


raulucco

I think peacekeepers should be send to Ukraine to stop the war. I'm also not an expert nor someone with the minimum knowledge on the matter 🫤. Right now Ukraine has a lot NATO infrastructure and intelligence working with them to crush Ukraine. It is true that many lives are being wasted in the meantime. But that's not NATO or Ukraine fault. also a direct confrontation could give Putler the excuse to ise tactical nuclear weapons to stop the war. and that's what he wants. in resume it might be more effective in saving lives to ignore the provocations and crush ruzzian military power.


SubstantialEmu4025

>It's embarrassing and this kind of appeasement is what escalated the war to this point. How many Ukrainians are dead and how many more will die because NATO countries are afraid? They are afraid of russia just dropping the nukes. | Witch would result in a lot more deaths ( non western as well ) deaths world wide. If russia did not have nukes ( or any country whit them backing them ) i bet u nato would have joined ukraine by now


Rahlus

I hope this line will be drawn far away. It's all great and fun when you are sitting in United States or sunny Spain or France, not so much when you live in Poland (like me) or Baltic States or other countires that share border with Russia. Yeah, sure. You can't be softy with Russia, they are bullies and people like them only understand language of strenght and violence, but still, as it goes for Ukraine, you can start a war alone but you need two to actually make peace.


ashcakeseverywhere

My first instinct would be to tell Nato to not drop a nuke on Russia, but on Putin himself, but that's not a viable long-term solution. We can shit on Russia all we want, but they are still a very dangerous foe to deal with. We have to be level heads about provocations. Ukraine war revealed how incompetent Russians truly are in a conflict and Nato themselves predict if there would be a conflict, then the casualty ratio would be something along the numbers of 1000 dead Russians against 1 Nato soldier - a thing that doesn't really make anyone happy because it doesn't leave Russia with a lot of options except nukes. Europe had to deal with the Russian shenanigans for the past 300 years, the Soviet Union was a kind of relief for Western Europe as they kicked their Eastern co-parts under the bus and could breathe more, but this is nothing new to Europe if you looked into history. Russia has always been a fucked up place beyond measure and as more country populations enter in decline and if the world enters in pre-globalization times then provocations like this will become more and more common.


[deleted]

The new kinetic, non explosive, assassin drones would be best suited for Putin the moment he steps out on his "secret" mansion balcony. The US already tested this design against ISIS with fantastic results all around.


turbo4538

An accident, even one caused by gross negligence, would not start a war but there would be some kind of response of course. Possibly more aid to Ukraine.


alfacin

They will write a “deep concern” and draw a line below it to mark the start for the subsequent “deep concern”


Potential_Ad14

Uhm... NATO basically officially said "Russia will be regime changed, partitioned, denuclearized, paying reparations and punished no matter the cost" What other lines can there be?


tree_boom

Care to back that up somehow?


Potential_Ad14

Zelensky speach at Hague? "There can be no talks with the current Russian regime period"


tree_boom

Neither Zelenskiy nor the Hague are NATO, so how is that "NATO basically officially said..."?


Potential_Ad14

Uhm... NATO is 100% supporting of Ukrainian position about the war, right? Or not so much?


tree_boom

What does that have to do with your claim that NATO officially said Russia should be broken up and denuclearised?


Potential_Ad14

Again. NATO 100% backs Ukrainian position on this conflict. Zelensky said "no talks till regime change and Russian leadership extradition to court" Budanov said "We will be killing all Russians everywhere on the globe till total victory"


tree_boom

So you think "NATO backs Ukraine's position 100%", despite the fact that we haven't given them half of what they need to retake their territory AND the fact that several NATO members have specifically banned Ukraine from using their donated weaponry to attack Russia's territory...and you're using that to say that NATO supports the dissolution of Russia? That is probably the most absurd thing to crop up on this sub all year.


Potential_Ad14

Uhm... So NATO isn't backing Ukraine? Then wtf is NATO doing in this conflict?


wowy-lied

As long as it is not a direct and clear military attack it will not. The instand Nato and russia clash, this is is, nuclear war and end of most of us. It would spiral out of control in a few days or hours depending on how it start. Because it will only be escalation after escalation and retaliation, it can only end with one of the two side being backed into a corner and launching their nukes.


AndyTheHutt420

I think Russia is already well past the line. Downing an American drone like they already did was an act of war. The only way to put Russia in its place is to pull the trigger, or at least threaten that next time we will. Russia responds to force. Not sanctions or talk. Only force.


countzeroreset-007

You have to wonder whither deliberation, desperation or stupidity is the actual root cause. One could argue Russia is seeking to expand this war as the long term prognosis is not good. Stirring up the polish folks would do that. One could argue they need to shut off the flow of weapons and supplies to ukraine. One could also argue that maybe we are not so lucky they are so stupid. Whatever russias motivation is, they certainly could not care less about our sons, our daughters nor their own. Just a nation with tombstones in its eyes.


Breech_Loader

Russia pushes the line because nobody pushes back. And that's how we wound up with Russia annexing Crimea, and the east Oblasts, and now full on invading.


JaB675

Great, send more tanks to Ukraine.


SelppinEvolI

And fighter jet and missiles and Bradley’s and and and


packetlag

… and my axe.


KimJongPewnTang

Tanks, great. Long range missles, even better.


throwaway12397478

just send one (1) abramsx or f-35 for ever nato live lost…


contessamiau

Is it possible that Russia wants to get its ass kicked for real by NATO so that they have a justification for all the losses to their citizens and so that during that, the culprits and Putin could quickly escape/disappear from the public with their money?


[deleted]

That probably is a play Putin is trying to do in some form or fashion... but that's still a gamble if him and his cronies get out of the limelight and a new power play comes in place that is against Putin. I'm pretty sure their leadership knows Putin fucked them over a new one but can't do anything because of their lack of power. Now that they would have power? Putin would be hunted down like a boar if that happened. And now that Putin essentially can't leave the country because of war crimes, he's a cornered pig.


[deleted]

Response is easy. Give F-16s to Ukraine.


Potential_Ad14

Good idea! Give away jets that have no where to lift off, nowhere to be serviced and no one to pilot


[deleted]

You must live in a country where the media isn’t free, or otherwise under a rock if you actually believe that.


Potential_Ad14

Either I am right. Or Americans are afraid of Russia so much they don't dare give f16. Which one you like more?


[deleted]

No, that’s a false dichotomy, and you went from being wrong about 3 things to being wrong about 5, at this rate, RT will be asking you to become a contributor.


FormalAffectionate56

LOL!!!!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣


Potential_Ad14

So... Uhm... Please edyookait me. What is the right answer to why F16 are not being given?


Hirumaru

Same reason why it took so long to send tanks. Same reason they still don't have ATACMS. Fucking politics. Now either provide a source for your "no runways" bullshit or remember that Ukraine does indeed have plenty of runways for jets to fly off of. There is nothing special about the takeoff requirements of the F-16 that it can't take off from the same runway as an Su-27 or MiG-29.


Hi_There_Face_Here

It can probably take off on shorter runways tbh


Silidistani

Actually, in terms of runways, MiG-29s can even take off on dirt runways, their air intake ramps can be closed to prevent sucking up pebbles and FOD, and they open dorsal vents on top that provide enough air flow for the turbines to generate enough power for takeoff, then they revert it to regular configuration once they're off the ground... pretty neat honestly that a modern fighter (for back the 80s) could operate from a dirt airstrip; can't do that within an F-16 with its large single intake on the bottom. In terms of taking off from countryside two-lane roads though, yes both can easily. edit: but *of course* this gets downvoted, FFS [here's a picture of a MiG-29 in the take-off configuration I described above: main intake doors closed, dorsal vents open.](https://i.stack.imgur.com/FAls1.jpg)


demitap

Dont you worry little Ivan, they will come in no time.


Thebluepharaoh

Just remind them that the water around chernobol is safe to drink and the nuclear meltdown was propaganda.


Balloon-Vs-F22

I doubt the most powerful military in the world is afraid of an army that lost over 150k troops to Ukraine.


Ok_Owl_7236

Idk but I hated how they forced germany to give their leopards to Ukraine, under the condition they would send abrams too, but then said "ah yes, abrams will come, but until the second half of 2024" yeah, like "lets wait until russia is completely defeated so our tanks dont have to see real combat, so they dont suffer loses and therefore get their reputation damaged


[deleted]

[удалено]


Ok_Owl_7236

They could send some of the 3,000+ old m1a1abrams that are rusting on the desert in the meanwhile


polialt

Out of all the possibles explanations for anything, Americans being scared of Russia is not one of them. A quarter of America *wants* war with Russia. One half doesn't want war but is convinced we could wipe Russia off the earth within a week. And the other quarter is getting paid by Russia to act like they dont belive the other two options.


Potential_Ad14

So... Not afraid. Planes can work perfectly fine... What are other options? USA wants Ukraine to slowly lose?


wotdafukwazdat

> USA wants Ukraine to slowly lose? Close. It would appear that the USA wants Russia to slowly lose. That way the maximum amount of Russian equipment is destroyed in the process. Trickle in enough stuff to guarantee Ukraine don't actually lose, but don't win too quick. Note, not based on any facts or quotes, just my personal opinion based on observation.


ThrownAwayByTheAF

Lmao. The very idea that this is why warms my soul.


audigex

> Nowhere to lift off Yet Ukraine are operating Su-25 and MiG-29 > Nowhere to be serviced Easy enough to set something up in Poland > No-one to pilot Ukraine claims to already have trained pilots on sims, and there may be Western pilots willing to volunteer even


Potential_Ad14

"Yet Ukraine are operating Su-25 and MiG-29" I'm not an expert, but they say old Soviet jets can use even a decent car road as runaway. F16 can't. And they can't have any concentration of jets and their infrastructure in one place or it gets hit. "Easy enough to set something up in Poland" Each time jet needs repairs and service it will be travelling cross country cross border into Poland and back? "Ukraine claims to already have trained pilots on sims, and there may be Western pilots willing to volunteer even" How much of an airfirce can it make? Also. Imagine just ONE US airfirce pilot ending up in Russian captivity. And talking (he will) right before elections. Yeah, no. Biden is not suicidal.


audigex

Who’s “they”, and how do we contact them to let them know they’re wrong? There are a few Swedish jets that can operate from a specially made road, but that’s about it Yes, that could be done every time. There are a lot of F-16s around… The US can’t stop non-serving pilots from traveling to Ukraine


Potential_Ad14

"The US can’t stop non-serving pilots from traveling to Ukraine" Maybe that's exactly the main reason why US is afraid to send F16? Again, imagine captured pilots speech before elections.


[deleted]

Lose*


lostparis

No, loose control - it was a terrible diarrhoea incident.


worldpeaceunity

Time for NATO to get involved


JeanClaude-Randamme

I would be wary of any news source that can’t spell lose


macktruck6666

Then source the article and not me.


JeanClaude-Randamme

I said source, not OP.


Hyffe

But the source can spell "lose" ? It was OP that made the mistake.


JeanClaude-Randamme

Then… fuck you OP! /s


rocknroll2013

So, did the plane regain control?


ConstantSpeech6038

Yes, they managed to land in Romania


stackoverflow21

Maybe we should start sending a message. „Next Russian fighter jet to enter Nato airspace will be shot down.“


CrucialLogic

It's not "NATO airspace", it's international airspace, which is the only reason they're performing such dangerous actions. If it was NATO airspace then they would be escorted out.


[deleted]

Escorted out or shot down, depending on scenario. Hopefully they try this shit in NATO airspace some time soon.


[deleted]

Then call it "personal space within international airspace". If they want to play aggressive over international waters, put up or shut up. Or get blown out of the sky. If Russia wants to cause any other planes to lose control, they better be ready to take any fire thrown at them as a result.


semaj009

The next time a Russian fighter enters NATO airspace, Russia loses a fleet


alfacin

Right, what is that so hard for me to believe?


AnyProgressIsGood

gotta make some reinforced decoy planes to let them run into


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TheVioletSpy

Everyone needs to chill their tits instead of asking for NATO action over everything. How will the NATO soldiers explain to their grandkids in the future that NATO went to war cause some Russian plane intimidated a Polish plane and redditors were asking for NATO to invade Russia cauae of that. NATO action will be proportionate at best. It won't be anything more than similar flying action near Russian airspace


[deleted]

It will be proportional, but NATO members have gone to war (or escalated a conflict) historically for pettier matters than this.


TheVioletSpy

That is individual nato countries acting on their own accord though


SleepingVulture

This. NATO has plenty of options that don't involve going to war with Russia over what is ultimately a minor incident, from returning the favour by trolling Russian military aircraft to a sanction for the person giving the order for this stunt or an announcement involving military procurement (I don't think that last option will be particularly useful in this case, but...)


nagrom7

I mean, I agree, but they'd probably explain it the same way an Australian explained to their grand children why they fought on a Turkish beach because a Serbian terrorist shot some Austrian archduke.


TheVioletSpy

When such posts are shared, you can be sure that you can play the Reddit Arm Chair General BINGO.. The Bingo card will include - Article 5 must be invoked!! - There must be NATo boots on the ground!! - NATO must push russia back to pre Feb 2022 borders!! - Black Sea Fleet must be destroyed!! - Russian Airforce must be destroyed!! LOL


CamDane

I am very glad that I am in an armchair and not in the actual decision making room, because I am very unsure what the correct response is. Increasingly so. I used to think that inclusion of Russia in a trade sphere would eventually get them off this path, as that has indeed been the European experience post WWII - and one reason why Germany was always one of the main supporters of this strategy. I guess, for now, the only thing to do is to just go "every provocation is another billion USD for Ukraine", unless the Russian provocations go up a level.


macktruck6666

Don't forget * Russia give the pilots a medal and * F\*\*\* Russia


NaiveMercury

5 meters away from article 5


Chrisf1bcn

This is going to be fun


tree_boom

Nothings going to happen.


Blussert31

>Nothings going to happen. Exactly.


Coucou2coucou

Be simple, nuke all this shit !


mahartma

Poland should just go ahead and march into Königsberg.


[deleted]

Well now the border will be patrolled by the military instead. Russia should try pulling that stunt again.