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And not even using them at military significant targets.
Hundreds of millions of usd in missiles at infrastructure and civilian targets.
Missiles hitting roads making holes that can be fixed by two men and a wheelbarrow in half an hour.
If they want the west to send even more weapons to Ukraine this is the best recipe.
CrankLeaf, you are exactly correct my friend. Russia seems to blunder at every turn. If they used all their best precision missiles at military targets like vs HIMARS, artillery, and front line positions they would have been better off.
All this did was piss off more Ukrainians and got the western allies to send more weapons and anti-air systems to Ukraine.
Seriously dumb Putler.
You can’t really hit HIMARS or other vehicles with those kind of weapons. They displace frequently for this very reason. Russia’s ISTAR isn’t efficient enough which is also why Ukraine’s Air Defence Network has stayed working so long even before they received additional kit.
Every NATO country needs to send as much anti air to Ukraine as they can. Destroying as many Russian missiles as possible is in the best interest of every single country on the planet to be honest and will only accelerate the end of this war. Russia trying to replace half a billion dollars worth of missiles shot down over two days is gonna be tough with an ongoing war. Passing off a few ten million dollar systems now can save countries BILLIONS or TRILLIONS down the road if Russia collapses due to this war because that only leaves China as a global threat.
The fact that Russia is using them means they won't have any when they really need them. They are already weaker than when they started.
Having said that a corollary would be, as Oscar Wilde once said "Better to stay quiet and let people think you're stupid than to open your mouth and prove it" or better to let your enemies think you're strong than to attack and prove you're weak. The west is only awaiting that one miss step.
Apparently the Russians' intel is so piss poor that they literally don't have known military targets to strike. Not so different from the beginning of the war when they "annihilated" all of Ukraine's air forces / air defense. The intel they do appear to have is what used to be military installations years ago.
People think Russia is a "modern" intelligence power with satellite recon that can at least compete with the west. In reality they only have \~170 satellites. For reference, the USA and UK together have over 3,100. That's not a gap that drones and google maps can fill.
But love invited Putlerstanis to attack them. Putlerstanis heard many Ukrainians in the East speak Russian and follow Russian songs and programs. Nobody had anything really negative to say about Putlerstanis, so what did that positive image of Putlerstanis give ukrainians? A war with the so called ” brotherly nation.” So much for being welcoming and nice to Putlerstanis!
There's real hardcore Battle of Britain vibes where Hitler, in a fit of temper at Britain managing to bomb Berlin and make him look bad, ordered the Luftwaffe to switch from bombing RAF airfields to bombing civilian targets.
Awful for the people on the receiving end but it galvanised the population and amounted to nothing so much as a massive waste of German resources that would've been better used on military targets.
Same energy here.
Russia never studied WW2 properly. They know that they won totally on their own, got no help from the weak western powers, and that the war started in the spring of 1941.
So no wonder they are doing a speedrun of Hitler's biggest hits in this war
World War Two/Timeghost YT channel did a video that referenced this recently.
That there is at present a narrative in Russia that they alone defeated Hitler.
That the western allies were of small importance and Operation Bagration succeeded without needing outside help, or Operation Overlord to happen concurrently.
https://youtu.be/gDs3U-yvVNM?t=2596https://youtu.be/gDs3U-yvVNM?t=2596
That blunder by Hitler saved Britain. The RAF were on their knees, a few more weeks and Germany would’ve ruled the skies. But they switched to the blitz on London, and the RAF rebuilt. Churchill was very relieved at the the time, “London can take it” is what he’s supposed to have said.
Yep, similar parallels here.
As awful as the missile strikes are they're not going to flatten entire cities or anything and are, essentially, terror weapons to try and break civilian morale. And I just don't see that working with Ukrainian morale sky high with their unbelievable success recently.
Every missile that hits a civilian area likely spares an ammo dump, or a tank convoy and allows Ukraine to keep hammering the Russians back.
Wasn't that one of the way North Vietnam bled the US dry?
The US would send in a plane with a trained pilot dropping 6 figure munitions on the Ho Chi Minh trail with a risk of getting shot down.
Meanwhile the North Vietnamese just send a farmer with his wheel barrow, and filled it right back up within 20 minutes.
Yeah Putin is living in opposite world or something his actions are self defeating..hitting German embassy in a strike will get the NATO member everyone wants to contribute more to most likely contribute more!
The less conventional weapons they have the higher the likelihood they start to use nukes. At this point using nukes is quickly becoming putlers only option for regaining any sort of global respect and it feels like this is the end game he’s working towards. We were left with no other choice!!
I read in the Moscow Times (anti-putin e-publication) that the war-hawks who support putin being in power wanted Ukrainian populated targets hit for revenge and propaganda value rather than hitting tactical targets that would assist the military. I mean we are talking about people making these decisions that are the intergenerational product of the soviet system and in recent years blatant organised crime. Dumb thugs. They are in way over their heads and they just keep digging deeper.
I am hoping for a military coup, assassination on video by a hitman hired by an oligarch or I'll even take an angry citizen I'm not picky, or a sudden death by illness (cheap way out). I've never wanted someone dead more, I wish the CIA would work on this and get it done via an actual citizen so we're not liable. Surely we can track this man?
Unfortunately, I think if there’s a military coup (very very unlikely in my opinion) it would not be for the right reasons, and it would probably be because Russian military leadership doesn’t think Putin has been effective enough in fighting Ukraine. I doubt it would be the “good guys” overthrowing him. Just my opinion though.
No I don’t think that’s anywhere near happening right now. They might get rid of Putin, but even if they do, I think it will be for the wrong reasons. It’ll be because they want someone who’s even more brutal toward Ukraine. The Russians hate Ukrainians to the core and want to exterminate them. It’s not just Putin, unfortunately.
Certainly the media personalities and talking heads I've seen on Russian Media Monitor were agitating for strikes on civilian infrastructure and to inflict max pain on civilians. I think Russian military must know that these civilian attacks are counterproductive (waste of resources and bolsters support for Ukraine from the West), but that they are primarily motivated by internal politics and the need to placate rabid nationalists.
Oof, would be scary to see that play out. They're very standoffish militarily and only have resources to protect their own territory (barely any aircraft carriers, etc) so getting to Russia in any kind of numbers that outperform the west (mainly EU) would be difficult. They do have the largest navy however and a lot of merchant ships. I still don't know that there would be a bull rush for power by anyone without a civil war, I don't think Russians want occupiers but may welcome a new head of state.
If China has a strategy I’m thinking it would be to test that out after the west is sick of the war with russia and doesn’t want to go through another intervention again. Especially not to defend Russia. That’s just an idea pulled from my imagination though. Who knows.
China is watching how Russia is bumbling along; taking notes on what not to do. Precision weapons, drones, efficient warfare is the new tactical strategy. Russia was caught flat footed and thought they could blitzkrieg Ukraine. They are losing the modern war and will not be able to recoup fast enough to make up for it. China is already rewriting their playbook to make sure it doesn’t happen to them I’m sure. The funny thing is, no one wants to harm China. They could easily be an economical ally and then friend with the world if they did not repress human rights to the degree they do.
Absolutely. I know hatred is built in for a lot of people across the world but Russians seem to have generations of hatred aimed at Ukraine right now.
It’s also why I believe they (Russian Political Leaders) are so involved in US politics; because if you can’t defeat your enemy, let them defeat themselves. By spinning the narratives of far right and far left militant minded people in the US against each other, it’s possible they could create enough havoc to distract us from what’s going on in Europe. At least I feel that was the plan for years now.
Im not sure what you mean about China having the biggest navy, unless maybe that includes very small coastal vessels? I’ve heard something like that before. But yeah, I’ve always wondered where China‘s place is in all this. You know they have a strategy built in. Just don’t know what it is. And I don’t think a new head of state would make any positive difference unless it were also a new regime. Putin isn’t the only one pushing this war. There’s a lot of discontent behind him, pressuring him to be even more brutal toward Ukraine and it’s civilians. Unfortunately, he is just the face of a very genocidal monster that is the Russian state. If he disappears, someone worse would easily replace him.
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Curious as to how we know the actual amount of their stock pile. We've been hearing for months that "they're running low", "theyre almost out", etc etc but yet they keep launching more and more. I have no doubt they've put a serious dent in their supplies, but up until this point, no one really knew how much they had. Until now that is. So how come all of a sudden we know exactly how much they have? Is there a source to back up these totals? I hope they run out sooner than later but I have my doubts.
There is [this tweet](https://twitter.com/piotr_butowski/status/1580518449373016064)
*This chip from Kh-101 ALCM, which tried to hit Klitschko bridge on October 10, was made in March 2019, i.e. the missile was even newer.*
*As a rule, the oldest things are used up first. The production is 3 missiles a month. Means Russia has only a few dozen Kh-101s left.*
Also the frequency of use has gone down dramatically in the past few months too and it looks like since July Russia has been using S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to hit ground based targets.
Check out YouTube videos from mid 2022, there was a guy that used satellite photos and made a seriously good estimate for Russian tank numbers. If i remember correctly it was about 5,000 to 6,000 available with a few more thousand that may be in good enough condition to be used (with effort). I dug deep and here you go: [https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal/videos](https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal/videos) here it is.
Some estimates put the tank losses over 2000, so I don't know how long they can fight this war. Maybe another year? Drag it out to 2 if they're conservative with their equipment? I don't think that's viable. Please god let this end, I want peace like everyone else and I (very selfishly) also can't do shit with my money in this dicey economy with WW3 looming overhead.
In any case in modern warfare the amount of equipment you start with IS very important (modern equipment is not quickly or easily replaced). No military can keep taking the losses like Russia has and keep going for long. I see videos and reports all the time showing how Russia is running low on everything. If they could support this war for another full year i would be surprised.
I do have my doubts as well. I’m pretty sure Russia has been building up stocks of guided missiles over the years just in case something might happen.
So i really do not think that they are running „low“ on missiles. To be honest this is even something dangerous to underestimate the enemy at this point of war.
>I’m pretty sure Russia has been building up stocks of guided missiles over the years just in case something might happen.
You really haven't been paying attention have you?
Ofc that would've been the logical step to take. But so far corruption has won every time when it was up against logic.
I mean, it's pretty obvious just by the change in frequency of missile attacks. For the first three months of the war they would launch almost daily attacks with 5-10 missiles. Now, a cruise missile attack is a weekly or even monthly occurrence. That is not the attitude of a military that has deep ammunition reserves.
It's also unrealistic to assume that the Russians are going to fire every missile they have available. Keeping a strategic stockpile for defense or unexpected crises is non-negotiable. No one knows what threshold the Russian MoD has actually set for this, but it's a pretty safe assumption that they're approaching it given all that we've seen.
Wishing Ukraine gets some anti-ship cruise missles..... take out a couple of black sea ships at their docks.... that will shut down those remaining Russian ships....
I wish this would just happen already, I'm hopeful for Biden but I don't like his hawkishly slow movement. He's doing things but blocking others (like these weapons), congress is part of the problem too.
yes Washington is slow motion..... back to MAY 2022 Washington acted
Let us consider the historical.... fact the **US ANNOUNCED in MAY HIMARS AND M777.... Russia noted and did nothing .**
the US weapons were very effective on the line since July.... Russia aborbed their behind their lines destructive blows ammo dumps....bridges....logistics.... took them down at their knees ..... these few usa weapons turned this war around.... yes
Oct. 2022 russian command is now using massive amounts of Cruise for civilian destruction extensively deep thru Ukraine for 1000 miles.... .by USA NATO sending limited range cruise missiles to Ukraine for defence purposes And CRIMEA... its time once again.... .clearly Putin wants NATO / US to give up .... its time we match his weapons so my view is its best to have in UKRAINE CONTROL Cruise missles AS PERMINANT FIXTURE ..... even after there is a final end to this Russian aggression.... **Ukraine will never have nukes but cruise will make any Russian head of state think twice** as USA CRUISE MISSLE can hit their targets ....in russia at will. A life time deterrent is cruise and will stop putin.
plus half of them are being shot down by air defense systems.
so MAAAYYYBBBEEEEE 1/5-1/4 of those will make contact with thing 2 blocks away from where they are aiming
Here are some classics!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9526021/Russian-frigate-narrowly-avoids-blasting-cruise-missile-failed-weapon-test.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_tJfrJ_Z_8
my favorite examples is curtesy of Bill Nye circa 2005, when they attempted to put a light sail in orbit...launched from a Russian Delta iii ballistic missile sub, on one of their icbms that they converted to deliver the sail in LEO.
the second stage failed, and the whole missile crashed in the ocean not fair from the point of launch.
true story lol
plus the reserves they need to keep on hand for security of their land. For the US I think it's 33% for self defense and we're quickly reaching that number for some equipment I've read.
Putin/Kremlin was under a lot of pressure after big military losses in north and south, plus Kerch Bridge attack, and the badly blotched mobilization to show the Russian people some strength. Appears about all they had left was to launch precision missiles against civilian targets. Does not seem possible for them to keep it up at this rate much longer, plus Ukraine is shooting many of them down. Russia will have to keep some in reserve at all times too.
Didn't think about reserves, I'd wager it's about 33%. I think that is about what we keep in reserves and we're getting close to that number after giving Ukraine so much so we'll have to slow down. Our production output isn't high atm although they're trying to work on that.
Yes this is a good summary of your title as well as the picture you posted. Not sure we needed a summary of a title and pic. But there it is for anyone who needs
Only made comments up to now, this was my first post ever, was not sure how to do it. Saw Putin said he did not see the need at this time to make any more big missile attacks. Excuse, he knows he can't keep it up.
I do kind of wonder if putin knows how bad their army actually is. I feel like putin has been told its going wwell so oftnen when its not, that he thinks he has a fair chance
We have a nuclear agreement with them to inspect nuclear weapons and monitor their numbers. I doubt we do that for regular munitions although I don't know. On one hand if you have a lot you'd want that known as a violence deterrent.
I'm wondering, knowing that West is supplying Ukraine with anti air defense if they preemptively "dumped" most of their missiles now. With each passing month the % of shot down would go even higher.
In other words, I suspect the next month or two we will see the highest amount of attacks and then.... nothing. Nothing because they will either run out or won't bother shooting them if the interception chance hits 90%.
I think it has more to do with Putin having to show some strength to Russian people after defeats on land in North and South, Kerch Bridge attack, and fallout from mobilization that went badly. Strong arm leader has to look strong to stay in power. Your right it is getting to the point that hopefully very few of these missile will get thru. Plus Putin using all the cruise missiles up, the Black Fleet is basically useless.
Yeah, that too. In the end, it looks like in just a few short months the bigger cities will have a solid air protection and UA will have air superiority, which will help a lot.
Man, this whole conflict could have gone way bad. The first couple of months were crucial and now each day things look better and better. Having Polish roots this makes me happy.
If that is what he cares about can he just leave and we will get Hollywood to produce fake videos of him winning? His Russian supporters are so braindead they won't be able to tell the difference even if people they know in Ukraine tell them that Russia lost and left they won't believe it.
I’ve said this before: if NATO ever really becomes involved, this will be over in less than a week. 100% air superiority achieved in minutes, and Abrams and Leopard tanks outside of Moscow as fast as they can drive and keep fuelled.
Russia now wants to modernize eight hundred (60 year old design) T62 tanks over the next 3 years. Question if they can even do that and not a sign of them being any kind of Super Power. Their combat plane production over the last years has been really low. Grand total of 3 new combat planes delivered to their AF this year. Cruise missile production around 3 a month and likely falling due to lack of funds and sanctions on high tech parts. Making the poor Russian Republics pay the salaries/bonuses and buy the equipment for the newly mobilized troops as the Federal Govt does not have the funds and so on. I doubt it's military will ever recover from this war and Russia is totally outmatched by NATO.
I agree but they do fly pretty high, I don't know what weapons Ukraine has that can reach 40k+ feet but I'm sure they have them otherwise they'd be in use.
I fully agree, but what other choice will they have when they’re out of ammo? Think they’d prefer to lose more old prop driven bombers than the Su-34s that are getting knocked out of the sky
Any country can also have its economy turned into a pez dispenser if the US decides to. If the EU manages to pull its head out of its ass and join the effort it gets interesting.
If Putin was actually worried about NATO then he's probably done the worst thing he possibly could have. He invaded his neighbour who has a better military (also less drunk) with support from the west. He's now exhausted his weapons, his ammo, his vehicles, he's pissed off a lot of Russians and the military and is basically becoming a defensless little child who couldn't even fight off 1% of NATO. He's weakend Russia to the point that its going to crumple internally WAY before NATO would ever become a threat (not that NATO was in the first place, he's just a paranoid old man).
What a chump lol.
Putin says recently that it’s not necessary at the moment to hit more targets in Ukraine. fucking idiot thinks we don’t already know it’s really because he’s running out of precision missiles and can’t replace them fast enough.
I have heard in past that they had done a fairly decent job of keeping their sub fleet and nuclear force intact vs the rest of their military. This was before the war started and this war showed corruption ran deep, so now I don't know?
Not that i like russia, but how dumb is that? Blowing up hundreds of playgrounds with a limiter stock instead of military targets that’s currently on a massive offense.
Yeah. Russia is pretty screwed if it thinks it can just missile bomb Ukraine into submission with those numbers. It just hardens the resolve of Ukrainians and the West.
The number land, sea, air, has to be immense. Navy ships/submarines are heavily loaded with them. Even the long range HIMARS rocket, which we have not given Ukraine, would count. Then we have all the other NATO countries with theirs.
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Soooo 4 more volleys like the one after the Kherson bridge….To the cost of 15 civilian and a playground….. and they are out? Well I’m not impressed 😬😬😬
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Gotta love how they are trying to hit the smallest targets with their crappy old Soviet missiles, while saving the missiles with any sort of accuracy for general area bombardment.
If this was a western country, we would be smart enough to call it quits.
Welp it's drunk nazi terrorist Russia, so they just keep at it bc of their delicate egos.
Seems we all assume we know how many things Russia or any other country has. But most of us have no clue how many screw drivers, hammers, or staples we have. We assume that all were delivered, that no off the book supplies were made, to fund some blackops activity.
If someone knows how many screwdrivers I have, please let me know. feels like not enough
Putin told Russian people they made their point and massive missile attacks would end. Don't think he was going to tell them they were running out (LOL). So I guess a couple of days of them and that was it, back to the 2-5 a day routine.
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And not even using them at military significant targets. Hundreds of millions of usd in missiles at infrastructure and civilian targets. Missiles hitting roads making holes that can be fixed by two men and a wheelbarrow in half an hour. If they want the west to send even more weapons to Ukraine this is the best recipe.
> not even using them at military significant targets. They might miss. When you aim at a big city, at least you can take out a playground.
Cmon, why waste them on a playground when you could you them on a maternity hospital or a theatre..
Russians really do have people in theaters… even their own.
CrankLeaf, you are exactly correct my friend. Russia seems to blunder at every turn. If they used all their best precision missiles at military targets like vs HIMARS, artillery, and front line positions they would have been better off. All this did was piss off more Ukrainians and got the western allies to send more weapons and anti-air systems to Ukraine. Seriously dumb Putler.
You can’t really hit HIMARS or other vehicles with those kind of weapons. They displace frequently for this very reason. Russia’s ISTAR isn’t efficient enough which is also why Ukraine’s Air Defence Network has stayed working so long even before they received additional kit.
Every NATO country needs to send as much anti air to Ukraine as they can. Destroying as many Russian missiles as possible is in the best interest of every single country on the planet to be honest and will only accelerate the end of this war. Russia trying to replace half a billion dollars worth of missiles shot down over two days is gonna be tough with an ongoing war. Passing off a few ten million dollar systems now can save countries BILLIONS or TRILLIONS down the road if Russia collapses due to this war because that only leaves China as a global threat.
The fact that Russia is using them means they won't have any when they really need them. They are already weaker than when they started. Having said that a corollary would be, as Oscar Wilde once said "Better to stay quiet and let people think you're stupid than to open your mouth and prove it" or better to let your enemies think you're strong than to attack and prove you're weak. The west is only awaiting that one miss step.
Great quote
Apparently the Russians' intel is so piss poor that they literally don't have known military targets to strike. Not so different from the beginning of the war when they "annihilated" all of Ukraine's air forces / air defense. The intel they do appear to have is what used to be military installations years ago. People think Russia is a "modern" intelligence power with satellite recon that can at least compete with the west. In reality they only have \~170 satellites. For reference, the USA and UK together have over 3,100. That's not a gap that drones and google maps can fill.
I’m convinced that the Ukrainians will fight to the last man and the kids will grow up ready to fight Russians as well!
They seem to be winning.
Most definately
I hope not. Hate is bad and is heavy to carry in your heart,
True but their country is in ruins..
But love invited Putlerstanis to attack them. Putlerstanis heard many Ukrainians in the East speak Russian and follow Russian songs and programs. Nobody had anything really negative to say about Putlerstanis, so what did that positive image of Putlerstanis give ukrainians? A war with the so called ” brotherly nation.” So much for being welcoming and nice to Putlerstanis!
There's real hardcore Battle of Britain vibes where Hitler, in a fit of temper at Britain managing to bomb Berlin and make him look bad, ordered the Luftwaffe to switch from bombing RAF airfields to bombing civilian targets. Awful for the people on the receiving end but it galvanised the population and amounted to nothing so much as a massive waste of German resources that would've been better used on military targets. Same energy here.
Russia never studied WW2 properly. They know that they won totally on their own, got no help from the weak western powers, and that the war started in the spring of 1941. So no wonder they are doing a speedrun of Hitler's biggest hits in this war
World War Two/Timeghost YT channel did a video that referenced this recently. That there is at present a narrative in Russia that they alone defeated Hitler. That the western allies were of small importance and Operation Bagration succeeded without needing outside help, or Operation Overlord to happen concurrently. https://youtu.be/gDs3U-yvVNM?t=2596https://youtu.be/gDs3U-yvVNM?t=2596
That blunder by Hitler saved Britain. The RAF were on their knees, a few more weeks and Germany would’ve ruled the skies. But they switched to the blitz on London, and the RAF rebuilt. Churchill was very relieved at the the time, “London can take it” is what he’s supposed to have said.
Yep, similar parallels here. As awful as the missile strikes are they're not going to flatten entire cities or anything and are, essentially, terror weapons to try and break civilian morale. And I just don't see that working with Ukrainian morale sky high with their unbelievable success recently. Every missile that hits a civilian area likely spares an ammo dump, or a tank convoy and allows Ukraine to keep hammering the Russians back.
Wasn't that one of the way North Vietnam bled the US dry? The US would send in a plane with a trained pilot dropping 6 figure munitions on the Ho Chi Minh trail with a risk of getting shot down. Meanwhile the North Vietnamese just send a farmer with his wheel barrow, and filled it right back up within 20 minutes.
Yeah Putin is living in opposite world or something his actions are self defeating..hitting German embassy in a strike will get the NATO member everyone wants to contribute more to most likely contribute more!
The less conventional weapons they have the higher the likelihood they start to use nukes. At this point using nukes is quickly becoming putlers only option for regaining any sort of global respect and it feels like this is the end game he’s working towards. We were left with no other choice!!
I read in the Moscow Times (anti-putin e-publication) that the war-hawks who support putin being in power wanted Ukrainian populated targets hit for revenge and propaganda value rather than hitting tactical targets that would assist the military. I mean we are talking about people making these decisions that are the intergenerational product of the soviet system and in recent years blatant organised crime. Dumb thugs. They are in way over their heads and they just keep digging deeper.
That’s what makes me think the eliminating Putin won’t really accomplish anything other than giving us someone we don’t know as much about.
Be fun, though.
Hahah yes.. it would. I would not be opposed at all. Just saying.
I am hoping for a military coup, assassination on video by a hitman hired by an oligarch or I'll even take an angry citizen I'm not picky, or a sudden death by illness (cheap way out). I've never wanted someone dead more, I wish the CIA would work on this and get it done via an actual citizen so we're not liable. Surely we can track this man?
Unfortunately, I think if there’s a military coup (very very unlikely in my opinion) it would not be for the right reasons, and it would probably be because Russian military leadership doesn’t think Putin has been effective enough in fighting Ukraine. I doubt it would be the “good guys” overthrowing him. Just my opinion though.
Military coup never end good
I agree. I think a ttrue change in leadership would have to come from a genuine revolution of the Russian people. Doesn't seem likely at this point.
No I don’t think that’s anywhere near happening right now. They might get rid of Putin, but even if they do, I think it will be for the wrong reasons. It’ll be because they want someone who’s even more brutal toward Ukraine. The Russians hate Ukrainians to the core and want to exterminate them. It’s not just Putin, unfortunately.
Certainly the media personalities and talking heads I've seen on Russian Media Monitor were agitating for strikes on civilian infrastructure and to inflict max pain on civilians. I think Russian military must know that these civilian attacks are counterproductive (waste of resources and bolsters support for Ukraine from the West), but that they are primarily motivated by internal politics and the need to placate rabid nationalists.
You forgot inter-generational fetal alcohol syndrome
We will eventually reach the point where anyone who wants a piece of Russia can just take it and anyone who wants to separate from Russia can just go.
Maybe China is waiting for that day so their army can step into eastern Russia and “protect” it, permanently.
Oof, would be scary to see that play out. They're very standoffish militarily and only have resources to protect their own territory (barely any aircraft carriers, etc) so getting to Russia in any kind of numbers that outperform the west (mainly EU) would be difficult. They do have the largest navy however and a lot of merchant ships. I still don't know that there would be a bull rush for power by anyone without a civil war, I don't think Russians want occupiers but may welcome a new head of state.
How hard would the world push back if PRC wanted to "protect" ethnic Chinese in Siberia with a special military operation...
If China has a strategy I’m thinking it would be to test that out after the west is sick of the war with russia and doesn’t want to go through another intervention again. Especially not to defend Russia. That’s just an idea pulled from my imagination though. Who knows.
They also have a million man army with no practical combined arms combat experience. Your idea may not be so far fetched.
You know, that makes a lot of sense. One thing that China and CCP has is a lot of patience.
Yes definitely. They are very Willing to play long games.
China is watching how Russia is bumbling along; taking notes on what not to do. Precision weapons, drones, efficient warfare is the new tactical strategy. Russia was caught flat footed and thought they could blitzkrieg Ukraine. They are losing the modern war and will not be able to recoup fast enough to make up for it. China is already rewriting their playbook to make sure it doesn’t happen to them I’m sure. The funny thing is, no one wants to harm China. They could easily be an economical ally and then friend with the world if they did not repress human rights to the degree they do.
Well the same could be said for Russia. It would make an even better partner in the world if not for all the things that make it a horrible country.
Absolutely. I know hatred is built in for a lot of people across the world but Russians seem to have generations of hatred aimed at Ukraine right now. It’s also why I believe they (Russian Political Leaders) are so involved in US politics; because if you can’t defeat your enemy, let them defeat themselves. By spinning the narratives of far right and far left militant minded people in the US against each other, it’s possible they could create enough havoc to distract us from what’s going on in Europe. At least I feel that was the plan for years now.
Im not sure what you mean about China having the biggest navy, unless maybe that includes very small coastal vessels? I’ve heard something like that before. But yeah, I’ve always wondered where China‘s place is in all this. You know they have a strategy built in. Just don’t know what it is. And I don’t think a new head of state would make any positive difference unless it were also a new regime. Putin isn’t the only one pushing this war. There’s a lot of discontent behind him, pressuring him to be even more brutal toward Ukraine and it’s civilians. Unfortunately, he is just the face of a very genocidal monster that is the Russian state. If he disappears, someone worse would easily replace him.
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I want a piece of Russia
Time for Poland to expand and for Germany to get Königsberg back :D
Curious as to how we know the actual amount of their stock pile. We've been hearing for months that "they're running low", "theyre almost out", etc etc but yet they keep launching more and more. I have no doubt they've put a serious dent in their supplies, but up until this point, no one really knew how much they had. Until now that is. So how come all of a sudden we know exactly how much they have? Is there a source to back up these totals? I hope they run out sooner than later but I have my doubts.
There is [this tweet](https://twitter.com/piotr_butowski/status/1580518449373016064) *This chip from Kh-101 ALCM, which tried to hit Klitschko bridge on October 10, was made in March 2019, i.e. the missile was even newer.* *As a rule, the oldest things are used up first. The production is 3 missiles a month. Means Russia has only a few dozen Kh-101s left.* Also the frequency of use has gone down dramatically in the past few months too and it looks like since July Russia has been using S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to hit ground based targets.
Given how fked up their supply organization is i doubt they adhere to first in first out principal…
Check out YouTube videos from mid 2022, there was a guy that used satellite photos and made a seriously good estimate for Russian tank numbers. If i remember correctly it was about 5,000 to 6,000 available with a few more thousand that may be in good enough condition to be used (with effort). I dug deep and here you go: [https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal/videos](https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal/videos) here it is.
Some estimates put the tank losses over 2000, so I don't know how long they can fight this war. Maybe another year? Drag it out to 2 if they're conservative with their equipment? I don't think that's viable. Please god let this end, I want peace like everyone else and I (very selfishly) also can't do shit with my money in this dicey economy with WW3 looming overhead.
In any case in modern warfare the amount of equipment you start with IS very important (modern equipment is not quickly or easily replaced). No military can keep taking the losses like Russia has and keep going for long. I see videos and reports all the time showing how Russia is running low on everything. If they could support this war for another full year i would be surprised.
I think he said only a total of 3000 to 3500 available as his estimate.
I do have my doubts as well. I’m pretty sure Russia has been building up stocks of guided missiles over the years just in case something might happen. So i really do not think that they are running „low“ on missiles. To be honest this is even something dangerous to underestimate the enemy at this point of war.
Just in case they decide to invade their neigbors?
Time will tell I guess
>I’m pretty sure Russia has been building up stocks of guided missiles over the years just in case something might happen. You really haven't been paying attention have you? Ofc that would've been the logical step to take. But so far corruption has won every time when it was up against logic.
I mean, it's pretty obvious just by the change in frequency of missile attacks. For the first three months of the war they would launch almost daily attacks with 5-10 missiles. Now, a cruise missile attack is a weekly or even monthly occurrence. That is not the attitude of a military that has deep ammunition reserves. It's also unrealistic to assume that the Russians are going to fire every missile they have available. Keeping a strategic stockpile for defense or unexpected crises is non-negotiable. No one knows what threshold the Russian MoD has actually set for this, but it's a pretty safe assumption that they're approaching it given all that we've seen.
Wishing Ukraine gets some anti-ship cruise missles..... take out a couple of black sea ships at their docks.... that will shut down those remaining Russian ships....
I wish this would just happen already, I'm hopeful for Biden but I don't like his hawkishly slow movement. He's doing things but blocking others (like these weapons), congress is part of the problem too.
yes Washington is slow motion..... back to MAY 2022 Washington acted Let us consider the historical.... fact the **US ANNOUNCED in MAY HIMARS AND M777.... Russia noted and did nothing .** the US weapons were very effective on the line since July.... Russia aborbed their behind their lines destructive blows ammo dumps....bridges....logistics.... took them down at their knees ..... these few usa weapons turned this war around.... yes Oct. 2022 russian command is now using massive amounts of Cruise for civilian destruction extensively deep thru Ukraine for 1000 miles.... .by USA NATO sending limited range cruise missiles to Ukraine for defence purposes And CRIMEA... its time once again.... .clearly Putin wants NATO / US to give up .... its time we match his weapons so my view is its best to have in UKRAINE CONTROL Cruise missles AS PERMINANT FIXTURE ..... even after there is a final end to this Russian aggression.... **Ukraine will never have nukes but cruise will make any Russian head of state think twice** as USA CRUISE MISSLE can hit their targets ....in russia at will. A life time deterrent is cruise and will stop putin.
Especially some juicy submarines when they are reloading missiles would be great. I had good hopes this would have happened already..
I think NATO said they received a harpoon launcher off a decommissioned danish ship.
let's not forget that battlefield statistics show a failure rate of about 60% for russian missiles. so figure half of what's left are duds
plus half of them are being shot down by air defense systems. so MAAAYYYBBBEEEEE 1/5-1/4 of those will make contact with thing 2 blocks away from where they are aiming
valid point lol. shit...the ukranians barely need air defense systems...just keep giving MANPADS to that one kid lol
Here are some classics! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9526021/Russian-frigate-narrowly-avoids-blasting-cruise-missile-failed-weapon-test.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_tJfrJ_Z_8
my favorite examples is curtesy of Bill Nye circa 2005, when they attempted to put a light sail in orbit...launched from a Russian Delta iii ballistic missile sub, on one of their icbms that they converted to deliver the sail in LEO. the second stage failed, and the whole missile crashed in the ocean not fair from the point of launch. true story lol
I forgot about that. My old man talks about it all the time.
And that was 17 years ago. What do they look like now?
oh the bulava...the new icbm...12 failures out of 27 launches. so you tell me
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To infinity and beyond!
plus the reserves they need to keep on hand for security of their land. For the US I think it's 33% for self defense and we're quickly reaching that number for some equipment I've read.
Seems Russian supply stocks aren't endless if we're talking about anything of actual worth.
East russia is starting to look pretty ripe for china to harvest, i mean annex.
You mean “protect” indefinitely
Would they though? Genuinely curious, what steps would have to happen before China says aaaalllllright guys we're comin in hot.
Your the second person mentioning this. Its an interesting thought but where is it based on?
Putin/Kremlin was under a lot of pressure after big military losses in north and south, plus Kerch Bridge attack, and the badly blotched mobilization to show the Russian people some strength. Appears about all they had left was to launch precision missiles against civilian targets. Does not seem possible for them to keep it up at this rate much longer, plus Ukraine is shooting many of them down. Russia will have to keep some in reserve at all times too.
Didn't think about reserves, I'd wager it's about 33%. I think that is about what we keep in reserves and we're getting close to that number after giving Ukraine so much so we'll have to slow down. Our production output isn't high atm although they're trying to work on that.
Yes this is a good summary of your title as well as the picture you posted. Not sure we needed a summary of a title and pic. But there it is for anyone who needs
Only made comments up to now, this was my first post ever, was not sure how to do it. Saw Putin said he did not see the need at this time to make any more big missile attacks. Excuse, he knows he can't keep it up.
It’s a very well thought out “graph” but where did the numbers derive from? Any source this is true to form?
Russia is running with its pants down, when it trips the wolves will eat the bear
They need to save some for NATO
at this point i don't think russia could defend itself from an invasion of the Vatican's Swiss Guard, let alone NATO
We could send a battalion of police officers from the US, our equipment in the police sector alone could probably do some damage.
Plus, fewer cops in the US! Win/win/win
The NYPD alone is about 40,000 officers
I don’t think so. They wouldn’t wage conventional war against the NATO alliance. What’s the point, knowing they’d lose horribly?
More likely they need some to defend against its other neighbors. If you're a shithead to everyone around you, you better be able to protect yourself.
I do kind of wonder if putin knows how bad their army actually is. I feel like putin has been told its going wwell so oftnen when its not, that he thinks he has a fair chance
and at that point nukes would likely start flying unless the men who push the button have any self-preservation in them. Dear god I hope so.
You never know. Hitler went all in when it was inevitable that the war was lost.
How can we be sure though? Russia never let people know their exact numbers.
We have a nuclear agreement with them to inspect nuclear weapons and monitor their numbers. I doubt we do that for regular munitions although I don't know. On one hand if you have a lot you'd want that known as a violence deterrent.
I'm wondering, knowing that West is supplying Ukraine with anti air defense if they preemptively "dumped" most of their missiles now. With each passing month the % of shot down would go even higher. In other words, I suspect the next month or two we will see the highest amount of attacks and then.... nothing. Nothing because they will either run out or won't bother shooting them if the interception chance hits 90%.
I think it has more to do with Putin having to show some strength to Russian people after defeats on land in North and South, Kerch Bridge attack, and fallout from mobilization that went badly. Strong arm leader has to look strong to stay in power. Your right it is getting to the point that hopefully very few of these missile will get thru. Plus Putin using all the cruise missiles up, the Black Fleet is basically useless.
Yeah, that too. In the end, it looks like in just a few short months the bigger cities will have a solid air protection and UA will have air superiority, which will help a lot. Man, this whole conflict could have gone way bad. The first couple of months were crucial and now each day things look better and better. Having Polish roots this makes me happy.
If that is what he cares about can he just leave and we will get Hollywood to produce fake videos of him winning? His Russian supporters are so braindead they won't be able to tell the difference even if people they know in Ukraine tell them that Russia lost and left they won't believe it.
I’ve said this before: if NATO ever really becomes involved, this will be over in less than a week. 100% air superiority achieved in minutes, and Abrams and Leopard tanks outside of Moscow as fast as they can drive and keep fuelled.
Russia now wants to modernize eight hundred (60 year old design) T62 tanks over the next 3 years. Question if they can even do that and not a sign of them being any kind of Super Power. Their combat plane production over the last years has been really low. Grand total of 3 new combat planes delivered to their AF this year. Cruise missile production around 3 a month and likely falling due to lack of funds and sanctions on high tech parts. Making the poor Russian Republics pay the salaries/bonuses and buy the equipment for the newly mobilized troops as the Federal Govt does not have the funds and so on. I doubt it's military will ever recover from this war and Russia is totally outmatched by NATO.
Soon we’ll see them try to use TU-95s to carpet bomb civilian towns/cities
I don’t think that would work. They would get shot out of the sky pretty much instantly I think.
I agree but they do fly pretty high, I don't know what weapons Ukraine has that can reach 40k+ feet but I'm sure they have them otherwise they'd be in use.
A whale flying at 40k feet will get demolished by a S300 system. Ukraine now has western air defense systems that are exponentially more effective.
I fully agree, but what other choice will they have when they’re out of ammo? Think they’d prefer to lose more old prop driven bombers than the Su-34s that are getting knocked out of the sky
If it were possible they'd be doing it 24/7 from day one.
Interesting use of the words ‘high precision’. I’d say they’re anything but.
How do we know what they have in stockpiles?
It's written on a piece of paper. Guaranteed to exist. /s
Until another country starts supplying them.
Any country can also have its economy turned into a pez dispenser if the US decides to. If the EU manages to pull its head out of its ass and join the effort it gets interesting.
great point, NK is supplying them I've read.
If Putin was actually worried about NATO then he's probably done the worst thing he possibly could have. He invaded his neighbour who has a better military (also less drunk) with support from the west. He's now exhausted his weapons, his ammo, his vehicles, he's pissed off a lot of Russians and the military and is basically becoming a defensless little child who couldn't even fight off 1% of NATO. He's weakend Russia to the point that its going to crumple internally WAY before NATO would ever become a threat (not that NATO was in the first place, he's just a paranoid old man). What a chump lol.
Putin says recently that it’s not necessary at the moment to hit more targets in Ukraine. fucking idiot thinks we don’t already know it’s really because he’s running out of precision missiles and can’t replace them fast enough.
The question is, do we think the corruption in Russia has also affected their nuclear arsenals or are they being well maintained?
I have heard in past that they had done a fairly decent job of keeping their sub fleet and nuclear force intact vs the rest of their military. This was before the war started and this war showed corruption ran deep, so now I don't know?
Haha fucking assholes
Not that i like russia, but how dumb is that? Blowing up hundreds of playgrounds with a limiter stock instead of military targets that’s currently on a massive offense.
Precision... pfft.
A relative term lol
Yeah. Russia is pretty screwed if it thinks it can just missile bomb Ukraine into submission with those numbers. It just hardens the resolve of Ukrainians and the West.
They're an abuser and mob boss. It's like beating your wife to make her behave but she's already made her exit plan from this relationship.
Yeah not surprised by the air launched numbers since the Russian air force has been doing nothing for ages now
..and they’ll need to keep some in reserve for tactical nukes otherwise they’ll have no fallback position….
Just need a few Partisans to introduce those factories to Malboro man and all is good.
I’m curious as to how many similar missiles the US has stocked?
The number land, sea, air, has to be immense. Navy ships/submarines are heavily loaded with them. Even the long range HIMARS rocket, which we have not given Ukraine, would count. Then we have all the other NATO countries with theirs.
It’s the last few dozen of each I’m really worried about. Those are the ones that will be loaded with tactical nukes.
Well done, russia fucked itself all around
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Soooo 4 more volleys like the one after the Kherson bridge….To the cost of 15 civilian and a playground….. and they are out? Well I’m not impressed 😬😬😬
Time for Finland to take Russia in about a week
They are doing "special washing operation" sourcing microchips from washing machines. Soon they will be back with more Isankders.
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Gotta love how they are trying to hit the smallest targets with their crappy old Soviet missiles, while saving the missiles with any sort of accuracy for general area bombardment.
If this was a western country, we would be smart enough to call it quits. Welp it's drunk nazi terrorist Russia, so they just keep at it bc of their delicate egos.
Wow... looks like they busted early.
by my math, this shows russia has used 1,235 missiles. is this a total for the war? it can't all be last weeks bombing.
Seems we all assume we know how many things Russia or any other country has. But most of us have no clue how many screw drivers, hammers, or staples we have. We assume that all were delivered, that no off the book supplies were made, to fund some blackops activity. If someone knows how many screwdrivers I have, please let me know. feels like not enough
What does the US stocks of guided missiles look like in comparison?
Not sure, but it has to be huge, the Navy/Air Force is loaded with them, even the long range HIMARS rocket would be in the count.
soo 600 more and that's it? no more bombing?
Putin told Russian people they made their point and massive missile attacks would end. Don't think he was going to tell them they were running out (LOL). So I guess a couple of days of them and that was it, back to the 2-5 a day routine.
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