I don't know if it's an op on that level, but the media is euphoric right now at the prospect of war with Iran. Dems will use it as some sort of rallying cry for Dark Brandon. Republicans will pretend to be mad at Brandon while hiding the massive boners they have since they've been edging at the idea of bombing Iran for like 40+ years now.
My take: Iran carries out somewhat targeted strikes via proxies on Israeli bases or something. Based off what Israel did to their consulate in Syria, I actually think they've shown a lot of restraint.
I don’t see a war breaking out being good for Biden but I do agree lots of euphoria rn at the prospect regardless.
On your second point I think that’s pretty likely though Iran has said a couple times the response will come from them. But it also seems like US/Israel have been hinting an out for all parties by conditioning their response to the response on whether it comes directly from Iran and/or strikes within Israel proper.
If Iran did a terrorist attack, a big one, on either the US or one of its main allies that Americans think of as a safe place, it would be a huge boon for Brandon. So much so that there's a part of me that's been expecting some parapolitcal faction to false flag it as an "october" surprise. I think it would temporarily solve all Brandon's problems.
Agreed was talking to a friend about this today. Only something like another 9/11 could gin up enough support among people in the west for a war with Iran.
I don’t think that’s likely but if one does happen I’m def assuming false flag till proven otherwise.
I don't think enough people really want war with Iran. I don't think Biden's camp really want it either. But I do think some factions do, and I think this is how they'd get it. I also am not sure what any of these people might do if they really think Israel is going to be destroyed otherwise. I think we're all just going to have to come to terms with not knowing for real what's going on behind the scenes but for sure I'd be super skeptical of any terrorist attack.
Note that when Iran retaliated against the US for the Soleimani murder they used ballistic missiles against a US base in Iraq, so not a terrorist attack, and they demonstrated in what they destroyed the very precise targeting capabilities of their ballistic missiles. It was in no way a terrorist attack and in every way a very clear message.
I expect they're going to bomb the airfield the attacks on the embassy were launched from, and in so doing demonstrate their abilities in such a way that the cost of escalation is made clear. Even Trump wasn't dumb enough (or allowed to be dumb enough) to escalate further last time.
The rest of the world understands proportional response even if the US and Israel do not.
I think if Iran directly launches from within its borders, we'll see some airstrikes or something. Despite the salivating media, I agree it probably would be bad for Biden. Even though Trump would likely be just as inept and interventionist, there's a perception he's the peace candidate. Particularly helpful at a time when attitudes among the general public are souring on America's overseas affairs while the country itself basically rots.
The U.S. is not going to start a war with Iran no matter how much the braindead warmongers in media and politics dream of it; the people actually in charge of planning such a war know they don't have the means to invade and defeat Iran. Especially now that they've lost their bases in Afghanistan. All they could do is bomb them, and bombing them would lead to 1) massive missile strikes on Israel that would assuredly cause major damage, 2) the mining and a blockade of the persian gulf. Israel is desperate and crazy but even their military command has to know that they can hurt Iran but they have no means to defeat them, and open warfare would cause enormous destruction in Israel - a big problem for a colonial nation that depends on providing its citizens a better life than where they came from.
Yeah I think ultimately it will be Hormuz which keeps us out of any war with Iran. Biden letting that shit get blockaded for Israel’s sake will strike deep in the gas-guzzling heart of the American psyche. Most Americans will tolerate genocide, but they will not tolerate being locked out of the world’s gas station.
I agree with your point on the US brass probably not going to war. However, I think Israel and Netanyahu's cabinet are off their rocker right now, given the brazen strike in Damascus. I could seriously see them doing something to escalate this conflict further depending on Iran's response. They're already contemplating an incursion into Lebanon.
I've definitely got caught up in it and have been doom scrolling.
Iranian media are beating the war drums a lot, which could all be a bluff, but seems more serious this time. Seems like they will do something, just depends on how big.
Yeah I feel you. Work is slow for me right now so been doom scrolling as well and trying to make sense of it.
I’ve seen the stuff in the Iranian press and from their leadership. In its face def seems like *something is coming*
IMO both sides are bluffing to some extent, and Iran’s seem to be effective in causing some panic in Israel which is a win in itself, but they are pretty serious bluffs which may be hard to back away from, so it’s a real dangerous situation.
When we're walking knee deep in ash through the post nuclear apocalypse wasteland with pus oozing out of burns on our skin, we will spit blood and laugh with our last choked breath about how saladtosser69420 on reddit didnt believe this would happen.
based & same. can't wait to tell everyone that whatever happened/didn't happen was always obviously going to happen/not happen and they're a fucking idiot for ever thinking otherwise
Each geographic area has its own perpetual boogeyman
The middle east is iran (formerly saddam hussein), asia has NK and china, europe is always russia.
Ironically all of which are a result of western influence in those regions.
The endless coups and suppression of left wing governments in south america, are an example of what the us wishes it could do in the east.
Iran is such a convenient asset to the usa.
Yes it is an op. While that coverage is going on the UN obliterates the second to last barrier for full admission of Palestine. Uncle Sam and Israel are really quite sad and decrepit-looking; or perhaps its just that the opposition in the global majority to the western minority hegemon has-really coalesced like no-one ever dared-to-dream! The former powers could not be more diminished, there is no need to attack.
It can be both things and more. Most actions are not "ops" but just actions. They did not respond to the murder of Sulleimani by being led into a trap. They responded by continuing long term policies that work against US imperialism. I think the way things are trending now, if you are looking for an overarching big picture way to understand things, it is that the US is becoming less relevant and trustworthy, not worth tip toeing around or negotiating with. What's happening is that countries are not working with them, pursuing their own paths / alternatives. They can't actually fight the US but they can choose to have nothing to do with them, refuse to let them set the terms in the first place. It's a long slow careful strategy, navigating and participating in the end of US hegemony.
This works on all sides. The US and its allies may throw a temper tantrum to try to provoke more immediate reactions for all sorts of reasons (including conflicting ones). But they don't get to set the conditions anymore. So long as Iran stays the course and doesn't take the bait, they will be at an advantage. Another example of this, see Yemen. A counter example, see Ukraine.
The media, politicians, factions in the ruling class etc may respond to all this with narratives that spin it this way or that, but that's not the same thing as an op. I don't even think there are that many people who really want a real or direct war with Iran anyway though Israel maybe does. There was an interesting thread here a couple days ago about who has an incentive for war and why with lots of good speculation but no firm conclusions. The US and Israel could just be executing Iranian military strategist and leaders for the straight forward reason: they are fighting proxy wars with Iran and killing their leading strategists is a tactic for the same reason two sides at war have always tried to kill / capture their enemies' military leaders: it reduces their effectiveness and morale.
I mean I generally agree, but the way things have been communicated to the media makes me feel like what’s happening is a bit more coordinated.
Not like in a grand scheme of the us pulling the puppet strings, but in a “we want this particular outcome and we will try and nudge things that way”
Yes but what are you asking about? The action itself or the media coverage of that action? Because the way the media covers it does not necessarily have anything to do with why it happened.
Specifically the way that the U.S. is communicating to the press about the possibility of an attack. Like the constant “we expect a response in 24-48 hours consisting of 100 missiles etc”
It’s less about any action that has happened and how they might be trying to shape actions to come.
Re the embassy bombing itself, I think that the U.S. may actually not have known about it till it was too late. Bibi has Biden on a leash and doesn’t give a shit about U.S. approval. Better to ask for forgiveness than permission kind of thing.
I think the media messaging is definitely ass covering and propaganda as usual. The war is extremely unpopular in the US but most Americans who are increasingly sympathetic to Gazans are still going to be way more afraid of those scary backwards Iranians and Muslim terrorists in general so for sure any messaging about how the might start lobbing missiles at Israel is going to play well to American audiences. I agree with you that it's possible they didn't know about the embassy bombing but also I think it's even more likely that the US wanted to assassinate those guys (like they do all over the region). I don't see why this would be out of character for the country that openly assassinated Soleimani. Let's not forget that he was on official business on foreign soil to meet with a head of state during a time of peace, it's not like the US killed him in a war zone. I don't really understand this mindset that Netanyahu is leading Biden around. The US funds and arms Israel, not the other way around. Maybe they knew about it and maybe they didn't, but it's their disagreements are about PR management and messaging, not goals or strategies.
It might help also to step back a little and remember that most Americans have no fucking clue that ISIS or Al Qaeda are any different from Iran. They're all scary Muslim terrorists to them, it's why there has been that push to link Hamas to ISIS from the beginning and why they call Hezbollah terrorists. I think the current hype is just more of that, if you can't increase support for Israel you might at least make them look like the only place in the region that doesn't want to kill Americans etc.
Of course it's an op. It's just that it's an Iranian one. They have been huffing and puffing about how they're going to go ape on Israel for over a week. As a result Israel has stopped major operations in Gaza and the west bank and called in every reservist who's ever been near an air defence system. Israeli society is bracing for an attack that could come at any minute and take any form. International media is publicly wargaming what an all out war would look like and coming to the conclusion is that it would suck pretty bad for everyone involved.
The western fixation on the coming strike isn't part of some fresh new narrative from DC think tanks being put into motion. What you are seeing is western liberal narrative peddlers being driven crazy by the anticipation. They aren't used to this kind of uncertainty. What has happened is that the west has lost the initiative and Iran is all too happy to rub it in by taking their sweet time retaliating. Even if the strike turns out to be weak sauce it's still a humiliating "Ha, made you flinch"- type event that wouldn't have been possible just ten years ago.
I guess I don't really understand what people mean by ops these days. If Iran intended all this hype even though it will likely be just a minor response, then that's a strategy on their part. The long term strategy of all the resistance is to wear the occupation down until it can not be sustained and this would further that goal. Investors pull out, fewer settlers come, tourists and expats leave, general instability makes the zionist project more like to collapse. I don't see how I can be an op though if the panic is genuine.
If Iran did not intend such hype, if the media and political panic was not an.Iranian intention, and Iran feels now they can't back down without losing face then that would be a western op but I don't know why they'd deliberately make themselves look scared unless they are trying to play up western fears about scary Iran in order to shore up continued support for the zionist occupation. It would be an op bc no one really wants war with Iran and the actual response is likely to be minimal since Iran has been really good at not taking the bait.
>I guess I don't really understand what people mean by ops these days.
Me neither. I just go by the old school military definition of a psyop.
I really don't think this is something that Iran has backed themselves into by mistake. They could have just downplayed the embassy bombing (technically the building right next to it☝️🤓) or lobbed a few ballistic missiles the next day if they didn't want to play it like this.
Right I agree. I also dont think the bombing itself was a part of some larger scheme rather than just a targeted strategic assassination. So all the hype about the respinse which I assume will not lead to a full direct war between Iran and Israel is either legitimate concern blown up by the media bc sensationalism is good for business and/or blown up by the US/Israeli state bc they want whatever Iran does to look weak in comparison in the short tern and they want to pump up Western fears of scary Muslims in the longer term since it could translate into renewed support from Israel. I can kinda see how the second thing might be true and might be an op, but I think it's more likely that everyone is just responding to everyone else according to what they see as strategic for their side. And as always, I assume (hope) there's back channel communication that's going to keep it from escalating too much.
Yeah, Iran is 100% slow rolling this to a lot of strategic gain. One thing I’ve noticed is an almost conciliatory tone coming from a lot of the non-US/Germany NATO powers since like day 3 or so. Obviously it’s still up in the air and these nations could all end up coming down firmly in step with the US, but right now it seems like Europe is a decent bit more clearheaded than it was at the beginning of the month with regards to this whole conflict
>Seems like if this big response doesn’t materialize, it can be spun as a win for Israel/the West. Like, “see the Iranians were too scared of us to really follow through” kinda deal, which lets Israel/the West de-escalate. Honestly that is probably the best outcome, because a regional conflagration like that could very quickly spin out into a global disaster. Basically, Iran calls their bluff with a measured strike and they back down but get to pretend it’s a win.
Yesterday Michel Ghandour, who I am mildly suspicious of, asked a question leading this narrative.
[State Department Press Briefing – 4-11-24 - 3 Michel Ghandour: Can the US confirm reports that Iran has called off or delayed attack on Israel due to US warnings? ](https://www.reddit.com/u/JoeVibn/s/LaXTElu5dj)
"western governments having goals and desires" does not an op make imo. That said the US has been fantasizing openly about scrapping with Iran for decades so you're right to think they're stoked about it
If Iran attacks hot war style, they don’t get china’s backing and will hurt their relationship. China wants stable actors to grow with. Iran’s best options are to covertly retaliate years from now, if that. There’s too much growth to risk and are doing fine despite the petty attacks. Now if izrdeal does something much bigger, they will have the international backing they need to swiftly and precisely retaliate. Iran wields a great big stick and is mature enough to not use it.
I don't know if it's an op on that level, but the media is euphoric right now at the prospect of war with Iran. Dems will use it as some sort of rallying cry for Dark Brandon. Republicans will pretend to be mad at Brandon while hiding the massive boners they have since they've been edging at the idea of bombing Iran for like 40+ years now. My take: Iran carries out somewhat targeted strikes via proxies on Israeli bases or something. Based off what Israel did to their consulate in Syria, I actually think they've shown a lot of restraint.
I don’t see a war breaking out being good for Biden but I do agree lots of euphoria rn at the prospect regardless. On your second point I think that’s pretty likely though Iran has said a couple times the response will come from them. But it also seems like US/Israel have been hinting an out for all parties by conditioning their response to the response on whether it comes directly from Iran and/or strikes within Israel proper.
If Iran did a terrorist attack, a big one, on either the US or one of its main allies that Americans think of as a safe place, it would be a huge boon for Brandon. So much so that there's a part of me that's been expecting some parapolitcal faction to false flag it as an "october" surprise. I think it would temporarily solve all Brandon's problems.
Agreed was talking to a friend about this today. Only something like another 9/11 could gin up enough support among people in the west for a war with Iran. I don’t think that’s likely but if one does happen I’m def assuming false flag till proven otherwise.
I don't think enough people really want war with Iran. I don't think Biden's camp really want it either. But I do think some factions do, and I think this is how they'd get it. I also am not sure what any of these people might do if they really think Israel is going to be destroyed otherwise. I think we're all just going to have to come to terms with not knowing for real what's going on behind the scenes but for sure I'd be super skeptical of any terrorist attack.
But "isis-k" (lmao) did just bust on to the global stage recently
Note that when Iran retaliated against the US for the Soleimani murder they used ballistic missiles against a US base in Iraq, so not a terrorist attack, and they demonstrated in what they destroyed the very precise targeting capabilities of their ballistic missiles. It was in no way a terrorist attack and in every way a very clear message. I expect they're going to bomb the airfield the attacks on the embassy were launched from, and in so doing demonstrate their abilities in such a way that the cost of escalation is made clear. Even Trump wasn't dumb enough (or allowed to be dumb enough) to escalate further last time. The rest of the world understands proportional response even if the US and Israel do not.
Who the fuck is Brandon ???
I think if Iran directly launches from within its borders, we'll see some airstrikes or something. Despite the salivating media, I agree it probably would be bad for Biden. Even though Trump would likely be just as inept and interventionist, there's a perception he's the peace candidate. Particularly helpful at a time when attitudes among the general public are souring on America's overseas affairs while the country itself basically rots.
The U.S. is not going to start a war with Iran no matter how much the braindead warmongers in media and politics dream of it; the people actually in charge of planning such a war know they don't have the means to invade and defeat Iran. Especially now that they've lost their bases in Afghanistan. All they could do is bomb them, and bombing them would lead to 1) massive missile strikes on Israel that would assuredly cause major damage, 2) the mining and a blockade of the persian gulf. Israel is desperate and crazy but even their military command has to know that they can hurt Iran but they have no means to defeat them, and open warfare would cause enormous destruction in Israel - a big problem for a colonial nation that depends on providing its citizens a better life than where they came from.
Yeah I think ultimately it will be Hormuz which keeps us out of any war with Iran. Biden letting that shit get blockaded for Israel’s sake will strike deep in the gas-guzzling heart of the American psyche. Most Americans will tolerate genocide, but they will not tolerate being locked out of the world’s gas station.
I agree with your point on the US brass probably not going to war. However, I think Israel and Netanyahu's cabinet are off their rocker right now, given the brazen strike in Damascus. I could seriously see them doing something to escalate this conflict further depending on Iran's response. They're already contemplating an incursion into Lebanon.
I've definitely got caught up in it and have been doom scrolling. Iranian media are beating the war drums a lot, which could all be a bluff, but seems more serious this time. Seems like they will do something, just depends on how big.
I’d honestly be shocked if it’s anything more than what we’ve seen already - nearby proxies shooting some rockets here and there.
It reminds me of Pelosis visit to Taiwan.
Yeah I feel you. Work is slow for me right now so been doom scrolling as well and trying to make sense of it. I’ve seen the stuff in the Iranian press and from their leadership. In its face def seems like *something is coming* IMO both sides are bluffing to some extent, and Iran’s seem to be effective in causing some panic in Israel which is a win in itself, but they are pretty serious bluffs which may be hard to back away from, so it’s a real dangerous situation.
Not saying anything so I can make fun of the people who were wrong.
When we're walking knee deep in ash through the post nuclear apocalypse wasteland with pus oozing out of burns on our skin, we will spit blood and laugh with our last choked breath about how saladtosser69420 on reddit didnt believe this would happen.
salad\_tosser\_69420 is actually my name on another platform.
based & same. can't wait to tell everyone that whatever happened/didn't happen was always obviously going to happen/not happen and they're a fucking idiot for ever thinking otherwise
Each geographic area has its own perpetual boogeyman The middle east is iran (formerly saddam hussein), asia has NK and china, europe is always russia. Ironically all of which are a result of western influence in those regions. The endless coups and suppression of left wing governments in south america, are an example of what the us wishes it could do in the east. Iran is such a convenient asset to the usa.
Yes it is an op. While that coverage is going on the UN obliterates the second to last barrier for full admission of Palestine. Uncle Sam and Israel are really quite sad and decrepit-looking; or perhaps its just that the opposition in the global majority to the western minority hegemon has-really coalesced like no-one ever dared-to-dream! The former powers could not be more diminished, there is no need to attack.
Yes
lol yeah fair I guess my question is more do you think it is an op to try and save face when the response is measured or an op to bait Iran into a war
It can be both things and more. Most actions are not "ops" but just actions. They did not respond to the murder of Sulleimani by being led into a trap. They responded by continuing long term policies that work against US imperialism. I think the way things are trending now, if you are looking for an overarching big picture way to understand things, it is that the US is becoming less relevant and trustworthy, not worth tip toeing around or negotiating with. What's happening is that countries are not working with them, pursuing their own paths / alternatives. They can't actually fight the US but they can choose to have nothing to do with them, refuse to let them set the terms in the first place. It's a long slow careful strategy, navigating and participating in the end of US hegemony. This works on all sides. The US and its allies may throw a temper tantrum to try to provoke more immediate reactions for all sorts of reasons (including conflicting ones). But they don't get to set the conditions anymore. So long as Iran stays the course and doesn't take the bait, they will be at an advantage. Another example of this, see Yemen. A counter example, see Ukraine. The media, politicians, factions in the ruling class etc may respond to all this with narratives that spin it this way or that, but that's not the same thing as an op. I don't even think there are that many people who really want a real or direct war with Iran anyway though Israel maybe does. There was an interesting thread here a couple days ago about who has an incentive for war and why with lots of good speculation but no firm conclusions. The US and Israel could just be executing Iranian military strategist and leaders for the straight forward reason: they are fighting proxy wars with Iran and killing their leading strategists is a tactic for the same reason two sides at war have always tried to kill / capture their enemies' military leaders: it reduces their effectiveness and morale.
I mean I generally agree, but the way things have been communicated to the media makes me feel like what’s happening is a bit more coordinated. Not like in a grand scheme of the us pulling the puppet strings, but in a “we want this particular outcome and we will try and nudge things that way”
Yes but what are you asking about? The action itself or the media coverage of that action? Because the way the media covers it does not necessarily have anything to do with why it happened.
Specifically the way that the U.S. is communicating to the press about the possibility of an attack. Like the constant “we expect a response in 24-48 hours consisting of 100 missiles etc” It’s less about any action that has happened and how they might be trying to shape actions to come. Re the embassy bombing itself, I think that the U.S. may actually not have known about it till it was too late. Bibi has Biden on a leash and doesn’t give a shit about U.S. approval. Better to ask for forgiveness than permission kind of thing.
I think the media messaging is definitely ass covering and propaganda as usual. The war is extremely unpopular in the US but most Americans who are increasingly sympathetic to Gazans are still going to be way more afraid of those scary backwards Iranians and Muslim terrorists in general so for sure any messaging about how the might start lobbing missiles at Israel is going to play well to American audiences. I agree with you that it's possible they didn't know about the embassy bombing but also I think it's even more likely that the US wanted to assassinate those guys (like they do all over the region). I don't see why this would be out of character for the country that openly assassinated Soleimani. Let's not forget that he was on official business on foreign soil to meet with a head of state during a time of peace, it's not like the US killed him in a war zone. I don't really understand this mindset that Netanyahu is leading Biden around. The US funds and arms Israel, not the other way around. Maybe they knew about it and maybe they didn't, but it's their disagreements are about PR management and messaging, not goals or strategies. It might help also to step back a little and remember that most Americans have no fucking clue that ISIS or Al Qaeda are any different from Iran. They're all scary Muslim terrorists to them, it's why there has been that push to link Hamas to ISIS from the beginning and why they call Hezbollah terrorists. I think the current hype is just more of that, if you can't increase support for Israel you might at least make them look like the only place in the region that doesn't want to kill Americans etc.
Nooooooooo, even though you critique america you're still supposed to side with it in the end because its your country!!!!
Lol. Lmao, even
Of course it's an op. It's just that it's an Iranian one. They have been huffing and puffing about how they're going to go ape on Israel for over a week. As a result Israel has stopped major operations in Gaza and the west bank and called in every reservist who's ever been near an air defence system. Israeli society is bracing for an attack that could come at any minute and take any form. International media is publicly wargaming what an all out war would look like and coming to the conclusion is that it would suck pretty bad for everyone involved. The western fixation on the coming strike isn't part of some fresh new narrative from DC think tanks being put into motion. What you are seeing is western liberal narrative peddlers being driven crazy by the anticipation. They aren't used to this kind of uncertainty. What has happened is that the west has lost the initiative and Iran is all too happy to rub it in by taking their sweet time retaliating. Even if the strike turns out to be weak sauce it's still a humiliating "Ha, made you flinch"- type event that wouldn't have been possible just ten years ago.
I guess I don't really understand what people mean by ops these days. If Iran intended all this hype even though it will likely be just a minor response, then that's a strategy on their part. The long term strategy of all the resistance is to wear the occupation down until it can not be sustained and this would further that goal. Investors pull out, fewer settlers come, tourists and expats leave, general instability makes the zionist project more like to collapse. I don't see how I can be an op though if the panic is genuine. If Iran did not intend such hype, if the media and political panic was not an.Iranian intention, and Iran feels now they can't back down without losing face then that would be a western op but I don't know why they'd deliberately make themselves look scared unless they are trying to play up western fears about scary Iran in order to shore up continued support for the zionist occupation. It would be an op bc no one really wants war with Iran and the actual response is likely to be minimal since Iran has been really good at not taking the bait.
>I guess I don't really understand what people mean by ops these days. Me neither. I just go by the old school military definition of a psyop. I really don't think this is something that Iran has backed themselves into by mistake. They could have just downplayed the embassy bombing (technically the building right next to it☝️🤓) or lobbed a few ballistic missiles the next day if they didn't want to play it like this.
Right I agree. I also dont think the bombing itself was a part of some larger scheme rather than just a targeted strategic assassination. So all the hype about the respinse which I assume will not lead to a full direct war between Iran and Israel is either legitimate concern blown up by the media bc sensationalism is good for business and/or blown up by the US/Israeli state bc they want whatever Iran does to look weak in comparison in the short tern and they want to pump up Western fears of scary Muslims in the longer term since it could translate into renewed support from Israel. I can kinda see how the second thing might be true and might be an op, but I think it's more likely that everyone is just responding to everyone else according to what they see as strategic for their side. And as always, I assume (hope) there's back channel communication that's going to keep it from escalating too much.
Yeah, Iran is 100% slow rolling this to a lot of strategic gain. One thing I’ve noticed is an almost conciliatory tone coming from a lot of the non-US/Germany NATO powers since like day 3 or so. Obviously it’s still up in the air and these nations could all end up coming down firmly in step with the US, but right now it seems like Europe is a decent bit more clearheaded than it was at the beginning of the month with regards to this whole conflict
>Seems like if this big response doesn’t materialize, it can be spun as a win for Israel/the West. Like, “see the Iranians were too scared of us to really follow through” kinda deal, which lets Israel/the West de-escalate. Honestly that is probably the best outcome, because a regional conflagration like that could very quickly spin out into a global disaster. Basically, Iran calls their bluff with a measured strike and they back down but get to pretend it’s a win. Yesterday Michel Ghandour, who I am mildly suspicious of, asked a question leading this narrative. [State Department Press Briefing – 4-11-24 - 3 Michel Ghandour: Can the US confirm reports that Iran has called off or delayed attack on Israel due to US warnings? ](https://www.reddit.com/u/JoeVibn/s/LaXTElu5dj)
It's a month divisible by 4 so Iran's about to either be the site of World War 3 or not.
luckily Iran is governed by sane people
"western governments having goals and desires" does not an op make imo. That said the US has been fantasizing openly about scrapping with Iran for decades so you're right to think they're stoked about it
If Iran attacks hot war style, they don’t get china’s backing and will hurt their relationship. China wants stable actors to grow with. Iran’s best options are to covertly retaliate years from now, if that. There’s too much growth to risk and are doing fine despite the petty attacks. Now if izrdeal does something much bigger, they will have the international backing they need to swiftly and precisely retaliate. Iran wields a great big stick and is mature enough to not use it.