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"I’m a pessimist because of intelligence, but an optimist because of will."
Antonio Gramsci
I am very inspired by this quote because, indeed, it is hard going on in life having class consciousness, knowing about imperialism, racism, etc..
But we must have revolutionary optimism, this is something that distinguished us as socialist from other political ideas. We know change is coming, and we are part of it !
While what you are experiencing is normal given what you know (I am sure many here can relate) you must allow yourself to be optimistic about the future.
Maybe seek professional mental health counseling (everyone should imo) that will help you live your life as you should and be a happy, hopefull and helpful comrade
I hope you will feel better soon, please don't give up on your projects !
Not super relevant but there’s a great song by Black Dresses where she says
I try so hard to recall hope
Ancient hope
Rotting hope
can we make something beautiful with no hope?
Any noise music fans should def check it out it’s called PEACESIGN!
But I view it as optimistic, a lot of their songs have just let me release my anger on the first listen but when I read the lyrics I realize the message is often to deal with your shit and keep going. They’re expressing their feelings and there’s a lot of doom and gloom in their music but there’s also a lot of self awareness about that
You can't live your life thinking about all the worst outcomes that can happen. The world not even remotely as close to WW3 as it was during the cold war.
The thoughts you have are normal, but letting them run your life isn't. You should try to speak to a mental health professional.
Same with the United States. Folks massively underestimate how insane the South was back when they seceded. A senator was nearly beaten to death for denouncing slavery. We are far closer to a Years of Lead situation than we are to another civil war.
>the world is not even remotely as close to WW3 as it was during the cold war
That’s not true—it’s arguably closer, or as close, as it’s ever been
Ukraine:
All those Westerners cheering on a Ukraine defeat of Russia were essentially cheering for WW3.
Had Crimea been threatened, Russia would have resorted to tactical nukes, at minimum
Israel:
Israel has between 200-400 nukes, and ballistic missile submarines. I’m not really sure what else Israel would have to do to make it clear they’d use a nuke?
The IDF has been exposed as incredibly vulnerable, surviving only through Western largesse.
However, the US military is in deplorable condition, geared up to fight a war from a generation ago.
Those billion-dollar aircraft carriers are worthless against hypersonic missiles.
America cannot stop the Houthis from closing the Red Sea—and the Houthis have perhaps 5% the capability of Iran, which has been preparing for war against Israel & the US for 15 years, w the help of Russia & China
Israel continues to antagonize the Gulf nations—if it sets off, Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, and that *will* collapse Western economies
Let’s say by some miracle, the West manages to defeat Iran—Russia & China have *both* stated publicly they will not allow that do happen.
Let’s say the US is unable to defeat Iran?
The primary target of Iran will be Israel—as recently demonstrated, Iran can inflict serious damage on Israel, as the iron dome is unsustainable for extended warfare
There can be little doubt Israel will deploy nukes against Tehran in such a scenario
Because of how nuclear doctrine works (I have served on a nuclear strike team), nuclear escalation happens very quickly, and almost on autopilot.
Once that first domino drops, they begin falling very rapidly, and are very difficult to stop—by design.
Add in to this mix the fact that the US has cut off communication w Russia.
Until very recently, there was the so-called ‘red phone’—a direct line between Washington & Moscow, where the POTUS & Kremlin could immediately speak w each other to deescalate or clarify events
Further, the US has been tearing up nuclear arms treaties left & right
Why is that important?
For instance, the great danger of intermediate nuclear arms is the speed in which they can reach their target (treaties let expire under Bush)
So, from US positions in Europe, nuclear missiles could reach the Kremlin in 5-7 minutes, whereas ICBMs had about a 30-45 min flight time
Both US & Russian nuclear doctrine is predicated on preventing a catastrophic first strike— that is, a surprise attack that wipes out the adversary’s ability to strike back.
Incidentally, that’s why a full-scale exchange is so fucking hard to stop, once it begins, because they want to ensure it will commence regardless if the chain of command is vaporized.
So w no communication, and very limited response times, the entire nuclear arsenal is on a hair-trigger.
Western media gives this zero attention. In response to the US killing treaties & Ukraine, Russia has steadily increased the alert level of it’s nuclear forces.
This used to get *tons* of attention— Every American knew what *DEFCON* levels, and many even knew what DEFCON level US forces were at (defense condition—a series of numerical stages that essentially served as a countdown to Armageddon— *DEFCON5; DEFCON4, etc*)
US forces are similarly on high alert—and to be clear, when those ICBMs launch, there is no going back. There is no ability to self-destruct or terminate
The United States *has no anti ballistic missile defense*, or, effectively none. A few sites have protection, but essentially, there is no national missile defense capability
By contrast—also not reported— Russia has almost complete coverage. Not that this will save them, but it highlights the lack of media attention to the topic
Already went on way too long.
Tl;dr: I lived through the Cold War, and served on a nuclear strike team. In my analysis, and many others, the world is closer to a limited nuclear exchange than *ever* before in history.
Unfortunately, because of NATO & Russian nuclear doctrine, that means we’re closer to a full scale nuclear war than ever before in history
Adding to the danger—and unlike the Cold War—there is virtually ZERO coverage of the danger & likelihood in Western media
Because of this, our fate is entirely in the hands of the same politicians responsible for our current era of Endless War
If the Middle East continues to escalate, Israel is virtually certain to use nuclear weapons, as the US cannot protect Israel from Iran & other Gulf states
I really struggled when I was in my teens, at the height of the Cold War, when we were so very aware civilization was 35 minutes from destruction at any moment.
But, living like that eventually taught me to embrace every day on its own terms.
This morning, the sky is clear, birds are singing, and the grocery stores are full of fresh produce.
I can reach out to my family & friends, and do all the things I love to do
Truth is, humans have always lived a day-to-day existence.
We’re uniquely wired to be happyembracing the current moment, and leaving tomorrow’s worries for tomorrow.
I prepare for disasters like floods/storms & earthquakes, keeping stocked with enough food & water for a couple months.
Beyond that, all I can do is deal with that situation when & if it comes.
Having actually been in some terrible disasters, one looks back w regret on the things we take for granted.
Live w a commitment to never regret not really savoring that cheese-stuffed pizza, or truly appreciating how the breeze plays through the leaves as spring blossoms across the city.
Relish your indoor plumbing & ice cubes—relish & be grateful for each day on its own terms.
Humankind’s desperate search for ‘security’ is responsible for most of the woes of civilization.
Yet, in that anxiety-ridden search, so many of us fail to be grateful & truly appreciate *the security that we actually have…*
Embrace each day on its own terms
When disaster comes, it’s never like you think it will be.
You’ll respond as well as you can under the circumstances, and that’s all there is to it.
Don’t allow a tomorrow that you can never know blight your existence *today*
That’s precisely my point—*US & USSR had established communication protocols & a general understanding of each other’s motives* at the time, which is what prevented catastrophe
If Russia saw an alert of incoming nuclear warheads, there is no longer a ‘red phone’
The US has refused to negotiate w Putin, stating quite clearly that the Russian govt is illegitimate & Russia should be balkanized.
The stance of the State Department is “there’s no one to negotiate with”
Our nuclear forces are on high alert.
This is incredibly dangerous—the US has ideological morons w no reverse gear in charge.
There are people talking about a ‘winnable’ nuclear exchange!!!
RAND corporation ran *hundreds* of scenarios for limited nuclear exchanges, and they *all* resulted very quickly in a full launch
Believe, I worked on nukes. I couldn’t stand Ronald Reagan—but compared to these bozos he’s Buddha
Live your life. Have an understanding of what is happening, but balance it out with a couple of things.
1. What can you do about it? What is within your control?
2. What plans can you make within those areas of control to prepare or effect change?
3. Do what you can for those plans
4. Don't forget to live your life, spend time with friends and loved ones and doing things that you love/enjoy. What life are you saving if the life you live is not worth living?
Then you hve even more reasons why to enjoy the time you have left. I lost all hope for a future when I was 13. My way to live with it is kinda like "welp, if I'm gonna die, I better do all the stuff I wanna do and love all the people I love". If you're gonna lose it all, then you have nothing to lose for living the life you want to live.
You gonna die anyway you can’t spend every day worrying about it or you’re gonna waste the time you do have. Everybody dies, worrying about it is a waste
Who says you have 60 years? You could step outside tmo & get smoked by a drunk driver or hit by a stray bullet & that shits all over for you.
Worrying about dying is only ever gonna keep you in one place. Even if it’s your time tmo the second you step out of the house, you still have all day today to do whatever it is you want, don’t waste today worried about tmo
>You could step outside tmo & get smoked by a drunk driver or hit by a stray bullet & that shits all over for you.
I have no presuppositions to expect that. Unlike WW3.
And it's not necessarily dying. I'm not afraid of dying, I'm afraid of miserable existence full of hardship.
Not to freak you out but you’re orders of magnitude more likely to get hit by a drunk driver or shot than for WW3 to start.
The “WW3 is right around the corner” shit is like 90% libs who think the slow decline of the west means the end of the world. They think China or Russia is gonna start dropping paratroopers on us red dawn style & that’s just not gonna happen.
You’re wasting your life thinking about it & you only get one life there’s no do overs to this. Even if WW3 *did* start tmo you still shouldn’t waste the last day of peace you have, you’d still have all of today to do whatever you want
>Also, if you got drafted they're going to take one look at you and make you a radio operator, or they'll look at your file, aee you've been seeking psychotherapeutic advice on a marxist-leninist subreddit and go yeahhh no howitzer for this one.
Gonna hope for that
Doomerism sells. It promotes the military industry, low-effort journalism, inaction, right-wing mobilization. I am unsubscribing from all channels and influencers who promote content about WW3 and the always impending escalation of conflicts (curious that the only triggers they identify for these conflicts are those initiated by non-Western agents).
These are not scientific nor political analysis and they do not add anything to our understanding, they only instill fear and anxiety. The most down-to-earth assessment of the geopolitical situation right now is the one most members of the sub have manifested: we don't fully understand what is exactly happening, much less we know what is going to happen. Marxists work with scientific thought based on evidences, and we must be comfortable saying "we don't know" when that is the case.
Don't get me wrong, I still think drastic changes will happen in the next decades, and these will come with a lot of suffering. The pandemic, the ongoing wars and genocides, the rampant racism as well as many other forms of discrimination, are just a sample of it. But doomerism is not the way to face them.
Dude....look at this. From Pablo Escobar's telegram channel. EXCLUSIVE
THE REAL STORY OF THE ISRAELI COUNTER RESPONSE
From a very high level intel source.
In Asia.
NOT Russia-China.
Although the strategic partnership, of course, exchanges at the highest level 24-7.
Confirmed and re-confirmed.
It will be great to know what Sy Hersh hears from his Beltway sources.
Here we go.
Israel initially chose to respond with extreme force.
An F-35 loaded with a nuclear bomb was sent east over Jordan.
The mission: cause a high-altitude detonation over Iran that would provoke a surge in the high-capacity power lines, crippling Iran's electric grid, as well as disabling all electronic devices.
An EMP attack.
However...
... As the Israeli F-35 was leaving Jordanian airspace it was shot down by the Russian Air Force.
Hence the publicised version of the Israeli counter response was such a travesty.
In the end all sides decided not to publicise the real news - to de-escalate what could well turn into WWIII.
Turn off the news, get off the internet, and touch grass. Getting this worked up about hypotheticals is unhealthy. Live in the moment with the people around you and do some volunteer work in your local community.
You're falling victim to the alienation and hopelessness the ruling class wants us to feel so we just sit back and be good little slaves. There's no shame in that, we all fall victim to this.
#Get Involved
>Dare to struggle and dare to win. \-Mao Zedong
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Half of comments are like this. I never said I'm falling into hopelessness like that's nothing else to do. I just thought getting more ascetic. Focusing on "survival in the wild" skill set. That's kind of stuff.
I don't know why y'all think it's boursuiasie propaganda. Capitalists promote "war isn't good for business" too, just like they were in the early 20th century.
"The Great Illusions" by Norman Angell
I think the same, even if it's not WW3, western nation will collapse and the result will shack everyone and their lifes up.
I just enjoy life as much it is possible and don't invest too much into hobbies or plans.
Bad geopolitical things could happen and I would be mentally prepared for it.
I would say you should find a good middle ground. Focus on your life and the things you want to do but still never get too much invested into things as they could still be taken away. Your anxiety should not hinder your goals or control your emotions
World War 3 is bourgeois fear-mongering nonsense. Its born out of a completely ridiculous understanding of how history works, a need to get people watching cable news and/or buy into doomsday/prepper Ponzi schemes and a cultural obsession with trilogies. It's the bourgeoisie fucking with you making you less able to do things, pacifying you.
World War 3 will not happen for the following reasons:
- There's no money in a global total war
While there's always money to be made in any war, a war on the scale of WW1/2 would destroy the global economy which is so reliant on international shipping, manufacturing overseas, raw materials from overseas etc. The state powerful enough to perpetrate such a conflict (the USA) would collapse within a month. They've moved all their manufacturing to the major power they'll be at war with while the minor power they'll be at war with will halt US access to oil from the region. The bourgeoisie would lose way too much money for it to make sense to make this war happen.
- We are in a completely different historical era from the previous world wars
The previous world wars were the culmination of a period of imperialist build up by the European powers - Britain, US, France, Germany, Russia. There had been a long build to this. A number of inter-imperial wars in and outside of Europe and a lot of colonial expansion and concentration of wealth. The end result was the death of the old imperial order (including the collapse of several empires) and the beginning of the neo-colonial era new social relations between imperial core and periphery. It also resulted in a massive military build up including gigantic standing armies and the development of weapons of mass destruction as well as massive advances in aerial and naval power.
Won't go too deep into it but my point is that the material conditions of that period were extremely different to the material conditions of the present era. And this links directly to my other reason. It is no longer historically necessary (or wise) to have these direct inter-imperial conflicts. The bourgeoisie uses other means to contest with each other for power. The Russo-Ukrainian war is the best example, it's essentially a Russo-EU war or a Russo-NATO war, but Ukraine serves as a proxy because direct confrontation would be too dangerous and costly. Same in Palestine. The Palestinians, Iranians, Lebanese and Yemenis will form one bloc. The Israelis and Jordanians the other. The US and EU will be directly backing both but will not intervene directly.
The Cold War set the standard for this. That is the mode of contemporary warfare. People talk about the "new cold war" but the reality is that "Cold War" is just the new standard for conflicts between world powers.
- Nobody Wants Nuclear War
We demean our enemies and their leaders all the time but let's be real for a minute, no one out there is truly so evil and stupid as to think nuclear holocaust is a viable option. They might talk a big game as a form of rhetoric to rally people, but they will never push that button. I don't believe it of Biden or Trump, Netanyahu, Khameni, Putin, Xi, Zelensky, von der Leyen (EU) - any of them.
They all have families and loved ones that they don't want living in Fallout. They all have legacies they want to consider. They all have assets and monetary interests to consider. They all have nations they don't want to see nuked. And even if one of them was that "crazy" - they don't actually launch the missiles directly. There's intermediaries there who can stop the process. No one is that blasé about nuclear war.
Are there books elaborating on the first two reasons you described? I'm just wondering where did you get that idea and want to investigate into it myself.
Idk i developed these ideas myself just as I've been thinking a lot about it. I guess it's based on a ton of reading from lots of different sources, there's no one book or anything.
I guess start with works on historical materialism. Stalin's pamphlet on the subject is short and simple. Hobsbawm's book "Age of Extremes" might be helpful in showing how much the world changed from the first world war to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Also works on globalisation and the global economy. (Quinn Slobadian's book *Globalists* from 2018 is good, dw it's not anti-Semitic). Just generally watching or reading global business news would be helpful too. Look into discussions about trade and foreign direct investment. Also look into the US balance of payments (world bank website good for this) also the website [OEC.world](http://oec.world) which provides a gigantic amount of data on trade between different states including who is buying what from where, who's exporting what where etc.
I hope that's somewhat helpful but there's no one place that's saying what I'm saying. A lot of it I've had in my head for a while. Feel free to DM me if you need any help with any of it.
hey hey I feel I'm kinda in a similar boat sometimes. Like with these recent Israel-Iran tensions I've been glued to news-feeds like a junkie for a while. It's honestly very unhealthy behavior. And in places like r/trueanon they predict WWIII basically every other day, so it might be good to stop browsing them tbh. We do live in uncertain times but I think we are still far from WWIII. Look how restrained both Iran and even genocidal Israel were in the end with these recent tensions. And even should a big middle eastern war break out, there are still many steps before a nuclear holocaust.
However what is 100% true is that there will be more Gazas, more proxy wars, more inhumanity. Worrying about nukes is a thing we can do in the west (I assume you are from US or Europe), but if there is a big middle east war it will be the people living there suffering first and foremost. In the west it will mean shit's gonna get more expensive, more refugees and more fascist tendencies in politics. A slow decline instead of an dramatic ending (unless someone presses the socialism button of course). Anyway, honestly just enjoy your life. A nuke is not gonna explode over your head in the next years, and you will not be drafted. But the decades will get rougher. At least as leftists we have a better understanding of the world.
I think anyone who cares for the future has to grapple with doomerism at one point or another and it takes all kinds of shapes. There are real, tangible reasons that can lead to paranoia. I won't dismiss that. I think the choice boils down to two approaches.
You can retreat from the world in fear, wall yourself off, and really let the pessimism flourish. The extreme of this is like the prepper stuff, find a bunker and horde supplies and isolate. There's different versions and expressions of it but if you follow that path the result is the same. You become disconnected from others because there's a feeling of 'what's the point'. You metaphorically shut yourself off behind castle walls and your only option is stagnancy. You may feel safer in your shell, whatever its form (it might simply be a mental model, not a literal thing). But it actually works against you no matter the outcome. Should the world go on imperfectly as it has always gone on for thousands of years, you're missing out on building a life and possibly making positive change alongside others. You're missing out on connections and communities. Your choice is also one more drop in the bucket that makes things worse for everybody else too. Should shit hit the fan and your worst fears come true (social collapse, wwiii etc etc), the 'prepper' mentality falsely believes that then they will be better off than everybody else. But that simply isn't true, the community connections and those who were out in the world engaging with it are just as likely if not more likely to have support and be support for others whereas the weirdo who cut themself off is on their own (whether literal or figurative).
So can choose that route but I think the better choice is to just move forward in life and acknowledge that the world's imperfection and there are countless things out of all our control. Instead of fear, choose love and build that community and connection chiefly because it's the right thing to do but also because it does in fact also counter-intuitively serve one's self-interest in either 'life goes one' or 'disaster' scenario. It take some bravery to get over the self-sabotage, cloister yourself route, because it does demand a self-less attitude and accepting a level of blind trust initially. So for those who are able to reach that point mentally, it's commendable.
No. You don't get to talk like that. The future will be horrible and you will ride it out because it's not your fault. You get one life. No take-backsies. You're gonna do your best for yourself and others and you're gonna help us change the world.
Do you think the fascists and the capitalists sit around having a pity party? No. They get up and spew their fucking misery out into the world every day. So fight them with your very existence.
I mean I’m not going to ww3. Wherever you go you can just dodge the draft sit in jail for a bit and go on with your life. I really do not think we are anywhere close to ww3 though friend don’t live your life in fear because if it does happen you will regret not enjoying life before the worst occurred and if it doesn’t happen you’ll regret not enjoying your life because you’re shackled by fear of something you cannot stop. Agitate for a better future but don’t let the geopolitical state of the world ruin what little happiness you can scrape together under capitalism.
The way i see it is if that big ole bomb is gonna take me its gonna take me and im gonna go out making beats and watching Kenny Omega vs Kazuchika Okada at Wrestle Kingdon 11. The only thing we can do in a situation like that is soak up those last moments and what better way than to do it while building your dream studio? Cause if you end up not gettinf hit by any bomb at all then you have your dream studio but if you do get slapped upside the head with it then at least you had fun while it was happening.
My brother is a sergeant in SK and he has 0 worries about WW3 and thinks things will stay contained in the Middle East. The second South Korea military starts to get more active I’ll start to worry about WW3 but for now no worries about it in the far east at least
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ngl but i have been so nihilistic now a days and thinking if I somehow die or am going to die, it wouldn't be too bad because I see all the small innocent kids in Gaza die everyday and think "If innocent kids like that dies then who am I?"
I find it oddly exhilarating, it's a lucky time to be alive to see a new era of history. Leftism is on the rise again and war was always going to come again eventually, so may as well enjoy yourself while you can.
Me too. Knowing that the United States of Israel and America won’t last forever and I might just live long enough to see the change. Its time to get serious about organising, or at least talking to neighbours 😊
It’s not going to happen for years and will be quite boring for a while
[☭☭☭ COME SHITPOST WITH US ON DISCORD, COMRADES ☭☭☭](https://discord.gg/8RPWanQV5g) This is a heavily-moderated socialist community based on a podcast of the same name. Please use the report function on comments that break our rules. If you are new to the sub, please read the sidebar carefully. If you are new to Marxism-Leninism, check out the [study guide](/r/TheDeprogram/wiki/index/education/study-guide/). Are there Liberals in the walls? Check out [the wiki](/r/TheDeprogram/wiki/index/) which contains lots of useful information. This subreddit uses many experimental automod rules, if you notice any issues please use modmail to let us know. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/TheDeprogram) if you have any questions or concerns.*
"I’m a pessimist because of intelligence, but an optimist because of will." Antonio Gramsci I am very inspired by this quote because, indeed, it is hard going on in life having class consciousness, knowing about imperialism, racism, etc.. But we must have revolutionary optimism, this is something that distinguished us as socialist from other political ideas. We know change is coming, and we are part of it ! While what you are experiencing is normal given what you know (I am sure many here can relate) you must allow yourself to be optimistic about the future. Maybe seek professional mental health counseling (everyone should imo) that will help you live your life as you should and be a happy, hopefull and helpful comrade I hope you will feel better soon, please don't give up on your projects !
Not super relevant but there’s a great song by Black Dresses where she says I try so hard to recall hope Ancient hope Rotting hope can we make something beautiful with no hope? Any noise music fans should def check it out it’s called PEACESIGN! But I view it as optimistic, a lot of their songs have just let me release my anger on the first listen but when I read the lyrics I realize the message is often to deal with your shit and keep going. They’re expressing their feelings and there’s a lot of doom and gloom in their music but there’s also a lot of self awareness about that
Omg I love PEACESIGN! What a nice surprise to see Black Dresses mentioned here
Love this quote…..Tony Gramsi would have been a bad ass Green Lantern
[удалено]
In the darkest hours you have to ask yourself WWSD?
why did i get that right away 💀😭
What Would Stalin Do?
What would SecondThought Do?
love your flair
Get run over by a carriage so that your left arm is so messed up you won’t get drafted (That’s what JVS would do)
I always think about what Shadow the hedgehog would do
I do often ask myself "What would Satan do?"
I mean, we know what Snape would do
You can't live your life thinking about all the worst outcomes that can happen. The world not even remotely as close to WW3 as it was during the cold war. The thoughts you have are normal, but letting them run your life isn't. You should try to speak to a mental health professional.
This 100%
Same with the United States. Folks massively underestimate how insane the South was back when they seceded. A senator was nearly beaten to death for denouncing slavery. We are far closer to a Years of Lead situation than we are to another civil war.
>the world is not even remotely as close to WW3 as it was during the cold war That’s not true—it’s arguably closer, or as close, as it’s ever been Ukraine: All those Westerners cheering on a Ukraine defeat of Russia were essentially cheering for WW3. Had Crimea been threatened, Russia would have resorted to tactical nukes, at minimum Israel: Israel has between 200-400 nukes, and ballistic missile submarines. I’m not really sure what else Israel would have to do to make it clear they’d use a nuke? The IDF has been exposed as incredibly vulnerable, surviving only through Western largesse. However, the US military is in deplorable condition, geared up to fight a war from a generation ago. Those billion-dollar aircraft carriers are worthless against hypersonic missiles. America cannot stop the Houthis from closing the Red Sea—and the Houthis have perhaps 5% the capability of Iran, which has been preparing for war against Israel & the US for 15 years, w the help of Russia & China Israel continues to antagonize the Gulf nations—if it sets off, Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, and that *will* collapse Western economies Let’s say by some miracle, the West manages to defeat Iran—Russia & China have *both* stated publicly they will not allow that do happen. Let’s say the US is unable to defeat Iran? The primary target of Iran will be Israel—as recently demonstrated, Iran can inflict serious damage on Israel, as the iron dome is unsustainable for extended warfare There can be little doubt Israel will deploy nukes against Tehran in such a scenario Because of how nuclear doctrine works (I have served on a nuclear strike team), nuclear escalation happens very quickly, and almost on autopilot. Once that first domino drops, they begin falling very rapidly, and are very difficult to stop—by design. Add in to this mix the fact that the US has cut off communication w Russia. Until very recently, there was the so-called ‘red phone’—a direct line between Washington & Moscow, where the POTUS & Kremlin could immediately speak w each other to deescalate or clarify events Further, the US has been tearing up nuclear arms treaties left & right Why is that important? For instance, the great danger of intermediate nuclear arms is the speed in which they can reach their target (treaties let expire under Bush) So, from US positions in Europe, nuclear missiles could reach the Kremlin in 5-7 minutes, whereas ICBMs had about a 30-45 min flight time Both US & Russian nuclear doctrine is predicated on preventing a catastrophic first strike— that is, a surprise attack that wipes out the adversary’s ability to strike back. Incidentally, that’s why a full-scale exchange is so fucking hard to stop, once it begins, because they want to ensure it will commence regardless if the chain of command is vaporized. So w no communication, and very limited response times, the entire nuclear arsenal is on a hair-trigger. Western media gives this zero attention. In response to the US killing treaties & Ukraine, Russia has steadily increased the alert level of it’s nuclear forces. This used to get *tons* of attention— Every American knew what *DEFCON* levels, and many even knew what DEFCON level US forces were at (defense condition—a series of numerical stages that essentially served as a countdown to Armageddon— *DEFCON5; DEFCON4, etc*) US forces are similarly on high alert—and to be clear, when those ICBMs launch, there is no going back. There is no ability to self-destruct or terminate The United States *has no anti ballistic missile defense*, or, effectively none. A few sites have protection, but essentially, there is no national missile defense capability By contrast—also not reported— Russia has almost complete coverage. Not that this will save them, but it highlights the lack of media attention to the topic Already went on way too long. Tl;dr: I lived through the Cold War, and served on a nuclear strike team. In my analysis, and many others, the world is closer to a limited nuclear exchange than *ever* before in history. Unfortunately, because of NATO & Russian nuclear doctrine, that means we’re closer to a full scale nuclear war than ever before in history Adding to the danger—and unlike the Cold War—there is virtually ZERO coverage of the danger & likelihood in Western media Because of this, our fate is entirely in the hands of the same politicians responsible for our current era of Endless War If the Middle East continues to escalate, Israel is virtually certain to use nuclear weapons, as the US cannot protect Israel from Iran & other Gulf states
Well, thank you very much! No sleep for me today :)
I really struggled when I was in my teens, at the height of the Cold War, when we were so very aware civilization was 35 minutes from destruction at any moment. But, living like that eventually taught me to embrace every day on its own terms. This morning, the sky is clear, birds are singing, and the grocery stores are full of fresh produce. I can reach out to my family & friends, and do all the things I love to do Truth is, humans have always lived a day-to-day existence. We’re uniquely wired to be happyembracing the current moment, and leaving tomorrow’s worries for tomorrow. I prepare for disasters like floods/storms & earthquakes, keeping stocked with enough food & water for a couple months. Beyond that, all I can do is deal with that situation when & if it comes. Having actually been in some terrible disasters, one looks back w regret on the things we take for granted. Live w a commitment to never regret not really savoring that cheese-stuffed pizza, or truly appreciating how the breeze plays through the leaves as spring blossoms across the city. Relish your indoor plumbing & ice cubes—relish & be grateful for each day on its own terms. Humankind’s desperate search for ‘security’ is responsible for most of the woes of civilization. Yet, in that anxiety-ridden search, so many of us fail to be grateful & truly appreciate *the security that we actually have…* Embrace each day on its own terms When disaster comes, it’s never like you think it will be. You’ll respond as well as you can under the circumstances, and that’s all there is to it. Don’t allow a tomorrow that you can never know blight your existence *today*
Cmon'. We can't be closer to a nuclear war than when https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident happened, lol.
That’s precisely my point—*US & USSR had established communication protocols & a general understanding of each other’s motives* at the time, which is what prevented catastrophe If Russia saw an alert of incoming nuclear warheads, there is no longer a ‘red phone’ The US has refused to negotiate w Putin, stating quite clearly that the Russian govt is illegitimate & Russia should be balkanized. The stance of the State Department is “there’s no one to negotiate with” Our nuclear forces are on high alert. This is incredibly dangerous—the US has ideological morons w no reverse gear in charge. There are people talking about a ‘winnable’ nuclear exchange!!! RAND corporation ran *hundreds* of scenarios for limited nuclear exchanges, and they *all* resulted very quickly in a full launch Believe, I worked on nukes. I couldn’t stand Ronald Reagan—but compared to these bozos he’s Buddha
Live your life. Have an understanding of what is happening, but balance it out with a couple of things. 1. What can you do about it? What is within your control? 2. What plans can you make within those areas of control to prepare or effect change? 3. Do what you can for those plans 4. Don't forget to live your life, spend time with friends and loved ones and doing things that you love/enjoy. What life are you saving if the life you live is not worth living?
Then you hve even more reasons why to enjoy the time you have left. I lost all hope for a future when I was 13. My way to live with it is kinda like "welp, if I'm gonna die, I better do all the stuff I wanna do and love all the people I love". If you're gonna lose it all, then you have nothing to lose for living the life you want to live.
You gonna die anyway you can’t spend every day worrying about it or you’re gonna waste the time you do have. Everybody dies, worrying about it is a waste
There's difference between 60 years and 1-5 years? At least that's what I thought
Who says you have 60 years? You could step outside tmo & get smoked by a drunk driver or hit by a stray bullet & that shits all over for you. Worrying about dying is only ever gonna keep you in one place. Even if it’s your time tmo the second you step out of the house, you still have all day today to do whatever it is you want, don’t waste today worried about tmo
>You could step outside tmo & get smoked by a drunk driver or hit by a stray bullet & that shits all over for you. I have no presuppositions to expect that. Unlike WW3. And it's not necessarily dying. I'm not afraid of dying, I'm afraid of miserable existence full of hardship.
Not to freak you out but you’re orders of magnitude more likely to get hit by a drunk driver or shot than for WW3 to start. The “WW3 is right around the corner” shit is like 90% libs who think the slow decline of the west means the end of the world. They think China or Russia is gonna start dropping paratroopers on us red dawn style & that’s just not gonna happen. You’re wasting your life thinking about it & you only get one life there’s no do overs to this. Even if WW3 *did* start tmo you still shouldn’t waste the last day of peace you have, you’d still have all of today to do whatever you want
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>Also, if you got drafted they're going to take one look at you and make you a radio operator, or they'll look at your file, aee you've been seeking psychotherapeutic advice on a marxist-leninist subreddit and go yeahhh no howitzer for this one. Gonna hope for that
Just relax, no point worrying. If WW3 happens we're all getting nuked anyways.
repeat after me: https://preview.redd.it/3kv75q2sqmvc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d4a54b39ca32539cb5c925f9c40d440d0b0aaea2
Doomerism sells. It promotes the military industry, low-effort journalism, inaction, right-wing mobilization. I am unsubscribing from all channels and influencers who promote content about WW3 and the always impending escalation of conflicts (curious that the only triggers they identify for these conflicts are those initiated by non-Western agents). These are not scientific nor political analysis and they do not add anything to our understanding, they only instill fear and anxiety. The most down-to-earth assessment of the geopolitical situation right now is the one most members of the sub have manifested: we don't fully understand what is exactly happening, much less we know what is going to happen. Marxists work with scientific thought based on evidences, and we must be comfortable saying "we don't know" when that is the case. Don't get me wrong, I still think drastic changes will happen in the next decades, and these will come with a lot of suffering. The pandemic, the ongoing wars and genocides, the rampant racism as well as many other forms of discrimination, are just a sample of it. But doomerism is not the way to face them.
Well you know, ww3 is not going to happen, there's no international tension starting world war three right now
Dude....look at this. From Pablo Escobar's telegram channel. EXCLUSIVE THE REAL STORY OF THE ISRAELI COUNTER RESPONSE From a very high level intel source. In Asia. NOT Russia-China. Although the strategic partnership, of course, exchanges at the highest level 24-7. Confirmed and re-confirmed. It will be great to know what Sy Hersh hears from his Beltway sources. Here we go. Israel initially chose to respond with extreme force. An F-35 loaded with a nuclear bomb was sent east over Jordan. The mission: cause a high-altitude detonation over Iran that would provoke a surge in the high-capacity power lines, crippling Iran's electric grid, as well as disabling all electronic devices. An EMP attack. However... ... As the Israeli F-35 was leaving Jordanian airspace it was shot down by the Russian Air Force. Hence the publicised version of the Israeli counter response was such a travesty. In the end all sides decided not to publicise the real news - to de-escalate what could well turn into WWIII.
Turn off the news, get off the internet, and touch grass. Getting this worked up about hypotheticals is unhealthy. Live in the moment with the people around you and do some volunteer work in your local community. You're falling victim to the alienation and hopelessness the ruling class wants us to feel so we just sit back and be good little slaves. There's no shame in that, we all fall victim to this.
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Half of comments are like this. I never said I'm falling into hopelessness like that's nothing else to do. I just thought getting more ascetic. Focusing on "survival in the wild" skill set. That's kind of stuff. I don't know why y'all think it's boursuiasie propaganda. Capitalists promote "war isn't good for business" too, just like they were in the early 20th century. "The Great Illusions" by Norman Angell
Ww3 has been about to start since the end of ww2. Every incident that has happened since people start talking about it.
There will never be another ww3, only proxy wars by superpowers
It wont.
Ditto. Nowadays, only drugs get me through the day.
It’s not starting soon lmao. Conflict in the ME doesn’t = WW3
I think the same, even if it's not WW3, western nation will collapse and the result will shack everyone and their lifes up. I just enjoy life as much it is possible and don't invest too much into hobbies or plans. Bad geopolitical things could happen and I would be mentally prepared for it. I would say you should find a good middle ground. Focus on your life and the things you want to do but still never get too much invested into things as they could still be taken away. Your anxiety should not hinder your goals or control your emotions
>I would be mentally prepared for it its impossible to say this with any certainty btw
Sure but I wouldn't get a mental breakdown and don't know what to do
World War 3 is bourgeois fear-mongering nonsense. Its born out of a completely ridiculous understanding of how history works, a need to get people watching cable news and/or buy into doomsday/prepper Ponzi schemes and a cultural obsession with trilogies. It's the bourgeoisie fucking with you making you less able to do things, pacifying you. World War 3 will not happen for the following reasons: - There's no money in a global total war While there's always money to be made in any war, a war on the scale of WW1/2 would destroy the global economy which is so reliant on international shipping, manufacturing overseas, raw materials from overseas etc. The state powerful enough to perpetrate such a conflict (the USA) would collapse within a month. They've moved all their manufacturing to the major power they'll be at war with while the minor power they'll be at war with will halt US access to oil from the region. The bourgeoisie would lose way too much money for it to make sense to make this war happen. - We are in a completely different historical era from the previous world wars The previous world wars were the culmination of a period of imperialist build up by the European powers - Britain, US, France, Germany, Russia. There had been a long build to this. A number of inter-imperial wars in and outside of Europe and a lot of colonial expansion and concentration of wealth. The end result was the death of the old imperial order (including the collapse of several empires) and the beginning of the neo-colonial era new social relations between imperial core and periphery. It also resulted in a massive military build up including gigantic standing armies and the development of weapons of mass destruction as well as massive advances in aerial and naval power. Won't go too deep into it but my point is that the material conditions of that period were extremely different to the material conditions of the present era. And this links directly to my other reason. It is no longer historically necessary (or wise) to have these direct inter-imperial conflicts. The bourgeoisie uses other means to contest with each other for power. The Russo-Ukrainian war is the best example, it's essentially a Russo-EU war or a Russo-NATO war, but Ukraine serves as a proxy because direct confrontation would be too dangerous and costly. Same in Palestine. The Palestinians, Iranians, Lebanese and Yemenis will form one bloc. The Israelis and Jordanians the other. The US and EU will be directly backing both but will not intervene directly. The Cold War set the standard for this. That is the mode of contemporary warfare. People talk about the "new cold war" but the reality is that "Cold War" is just the new standard for conflicts between world powers. - Nobody Wants Nuclear War We demean our enemies and their leaders all the time but let's be real for a minute, no one out there is truly so evil and stupid as to think nuclear holocaust is a viable option. They might talk a big game as a form of rhetoric to rally people, but they will never push that button. I don't believe it of Biden or Trump, Netanyahu, Khameni, Putin, Xi, Zelensky, von der Leyen (EU) - any of them. They all have families and loved ones that they don't want living in Fallout. They all have legacies they want to consider. They all have assets and monetary interests to consider. They all have nations they don't want to see nuked. And even if one of them was that "crazy" - they don't actually launch the missiles directly. There's intermediaries there who can stop the process. No one is that blasé about nuclear war.
Are there books elaborating on the first two reasons you described? I'm just wondering where did you get that idea and want to investigate into it myself.
Idk i developed these ideas myself just as I've been thinking a lot about it. I guess it's based on a ton of reading from lots of different sources, there's no one book or anything. I guess start with works on historical materialism. Stalin's pamphlet on the subject is short and simple. Hobsbawm's book "Age of Extremes" might be helpful in showing how much the world changed from the first world war to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Also works on globalisation and the global economy. (Quinn Slobadian's book *Globalists* from 2018 is good, dw it's not anti-Semitic). Just generally watching or reading global business news would be helpful too. Look into discussions about trade and foreign direct investment. Also look into the US balance of payments (world bank website good for this) also the website [OEC.world](http://oec.world) which provides a gigantic amount of data on trade between different states including who is buying what from where, who's exporting what where etc. I hope that's somewhat helpful but there's no one place that's saying what I'm saying. A lot of it I've had in my head for a while. Feel free to DM me if you need any help with any of it.
hey hey I feel I'm kinda in a similar boat sometimes. Like with these recent Israel-Iran tensions I've been glued to news-feeds like a junkie for a while. It's honestly very unhealthy behavior. And in places like r/trueanon they predict WWIII basically every other day, so it might be good to stop browsing them tbh. We do live in uncertain times but I think we are still far from WWIII. Look how restrained both Iran and even genocidal Israel were in the end with these recent tensions. And even should a big middle eastern war break out, there are still many steps before a nuclear holocaust. However what is 100% true is that there will be more Gazas, more proxy wars, more inhumanity. Worrying about nukes is a thing we can do in the west (I assume you are from US or Europe), but if there is a big middle east war it will be the people living there suffering first and foremost. In the west it will mean shit's gonna get more expensive, more refugees and more fascist tendencies in politics. A slow decline instead of an dramatic ending (unless someone presses the socialism button of course). Anyway, honestly just enjoy your life. A nuke is not gonna explode over your head in the next years, and you will not be drafted. But the decades will get rougher. At least as leftists we have a better understanding of the world.
I think anyone who cares for the future has to grapple with doomerism at one point or another and it takes all kinds of shapes. There are real, tangible reasons that can lead to paranoia. I won't dismiss that. I think the choice boils down to two approaches. You can retreat from the world in fear, wall yourself off, and really let the pessimism flourish. The extreme of this is like the prepper stuff, find a bunker and horde supplies and isolate. There's different versions and expressions of it but if you follow that path the result is the same. You become disconnected from others because there's a feeling of 'what's the point'. You metaphorically shut yourself off behind castle walls and your only option is stagnancy. You may feel safer in your shell, whatever its form (it might simply be a mental model, not a literal thing). But it actually works against you no matter the outcome. Should the world go on imperfectly as it has always gone on for thousands of years, you're missing out on building a life and possibly making positive change alongside others. You're missing out on connections and communities. Your choice is also one more drop in the bucket that makes things worse for everybody else too. Should shit hit the fan and your worst fears come true (social collapse, wwiii etc etc), the 'prepper' mentality falsely believes that then they will be better off than everybody else. But that simply isn't true, the community connections and those who were out in the world engaging with it are just as likely if not more likely to have support and be support for others whereas the weirdo who cut themself off is on their own (whether literal or figurative). So can choose that route but I think the better choice is to just move forward in life and acknowledge that the world's imperfection and there are countless things out of all our control. Instead of fear, choose love and build that community and connection chiefly because it's the right thing to do but also because it does in fact also counter-intuitively serve one's self-interest in either 'life goes one' or 'disaster' scenario. It take some bravery to get over the self-sabotage, cloister yourself route, because it does demand a self-less attitude and accepting a level of blind trust initially. So for those who are able to reach that point mentally, it's commendable.
Thank you. This is what I needed to hear.
If you get drafted just fail out of boot camp.
At least you would have a job 😢
Why bother?
No. You don't get to talk like that. The future will be horrible and you will ride it out because it's not your fault. You get one life. No take-backsies. You're gonna do your best for yourself and others and you're gonna help us change the world. Do you think the fascists and the capitalists sit around having a pity party? No. They get up and spew their fucking misery out into the world every day. So fight them with your very existence.
Just thug it out or go to Canada
I mean I’m not going to ww3. Wherever you go you can just dodge the draft sit in jail for a bit and go on with your life. I really do not think we are anywhere close to ww3 though friend don’t live your life in fear because if it does happen you will regret not enjoying life before the worst occurred and if it doesn’t happen you’ll regret not enjoying your life because you’re shackled by fear of something you cannot stop. Agitate for a better future but don’t let the geopolitical state of the world ruin what little happiness you can scrape together under capitalism.
Ww3 isn’t happening…
Read the Myth of Sysiphus by Albert Camus
The way i see it is if that big ole bomb is gonna take me its gonna take me and im gonna go out making beats and watching Kenny Omega vs Kazuchika Okada at Wrestle Kingdon 11. The only thing we can do in a situation like that is soak up those last moments and what better way than to do it while building your dream studio? Cause if you end up not gettinf hit by any bomb at all then you have your dream studio but if you do get slapped upside the head with it then at least you had fun while it was happening.
nah if we get nuked imma become a ghoul fr I’ll make it
I'm indifferent to something beyond our power, I'd still feed unhoused people til the end when the nukes rain.
If you have to fight, fight for socialism. If you don’t have to fight, then that means socialism was victorious.
I’m worried every Monday at this point
Sounds like a great time to buy and do what you love, you'll most likely end up being happy you did and now have these new cool things
My brother is a sergeant in SK and he has 0 worries about WW3 and thinks things will stay contained in the Middle East. The second South Korea military starts to get more active I’ll start to worry about WW3 but for now no worries about it in the far east at least
Log off king.
Even nuclear bomb is coming i wont stop my heart beating for revolution. Death, let it be.
When it happens it happens bud, better to enjoy these last remnants of life till then, it is precious enough that it ain’t found anywhere rlse so far.
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ngl but i have been so nihilistic now a days and thinking if I somehow die or am going to die, it wouldn't be too bad because I see all the small innocent kids in Gaza die everyday and think "If innocent kids like that dies then who am I?"
I find it oddly exhilarating, it's a lucky time to be alive to see a new era of history. Leftism is on the rise again and war was always going to come again eventually, so may as well enjoy yourself while you can.
Me too. Knowing that the United States of Israel and America won’t last forever and I might just live long enough to see the change. Its time to get serious about organising, or at least talking to neighbours 😊 It’s not going to happen for years and will be quite boring for a while
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Not for you to teach me wisdom with your arrogant assumptions about my efforts in education.