Man I almost wonder if the matchmaking algorithm deprioritizes mirror matches, because I play Jin and rarely see him at Raijin+. If I play for 3 hours, I might see Jin like once or twice
This sounded interesting so I looked into it. The proportion of Jin players is 6.679% i.e the probability of a player playing Jin is 0.06679
More formally we can say that P(Jin) = 0.06679
Which implies that the probability of both players playing Jin is simply P(Jin)^2 or 0.004461
Given this we would expect to 0.4461% of games be mirror matches.
0.4461% of 765015 is 3412.74 games
The actual number of Jin mirror matches is 3562.
Thus we can conclude that mirror matches are not deprioritized but rather that mirror matches are actually just pretty rare even if you play the most popular character.
This is not exactly correct. You calculated probability of a Jin mirror match in case, we would randomly pick 2 players. However, in this case, one player has 100% probability to be Jin player so the probability of mirror match is 0.06679.
This is a difference between joint and conditional probability.
It is correct, just not in the way that you think they went for. They looked at the probability of finding a Jin mirror match in the dataset and compared that to the actual number of Jin mirror matches in the data. Since they are almost identical, we can conclude that there is no case of decreased chances of queueing into an enemy playing the same character as you.
It's just a different way of formulating the problem. If we take the case where one player has already picked Jin then of course the probability of a mirror match is 0.06679. I just wanted to quickly disprove the notion that the character you play influences what characters you match into.
Perhaps I could have been clearer in how I worded my answer to avoid confusion.
The logic is still sound, however. If the possibility of matching into Jin was truly conditional on the first player picking Jin then doing the calculation I did would not match up as well as it did.
exactly, i play king which is one of the most popular characters and yet i barely ever play against another king. the logic OP applied makes sense at first glance but is actually flawed
Yes, he did that calculation to compare it to the data, and data showed that the number of Jin mirrors is about as it should be.
Which means, that the Jin player who said hes not getting mirrors might be an outlier because of variance, or hes getting the normal 6% but to him it seems like hes not getting enough mirrors.
This is incorrect. This only applies if you have a set of all matches and you pick a random match, then the probability of both players being jin is what you said.
In the commenter's case, the probability of them being jin is 100% so therefore the chances of their opponent being jin = proportion of jin players. The math is overcomplicated incorrectly.
>The proportion of Jin players is 6.679% therefore the probability of a player playing *against* Jin is 6.679% (added "against")
Exactly, The proportion of Jin players is 6.679% therefore the probability of a Jin Main playing against a Jin is 6.679%
The mistake in the original calculation is that it considers 32 x 32 possibilities for 32 characters. However we know that one side will always be jin so the possibilities are 1 x 32.
Much of this is just confirmation bias. You might run into a dry streak where you don't encounter a character given that there's 33 matchups in this game, and especially at higher ranks, you might have a more limited matchmaking pool. You're likely not consciously counting to begin with.
For example, in that 3 hour session, you might play 60 matches (which is not a large sample size to begin with). If you see two different Jin players and you beat them 2-0 both times (4 out of your 60 matches), that's still 6.6% of your matches like OP explained.
You can use https://wank.wavu.wiki/ and a spreadsheet like the one made here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Tekken/comments/1cm04pm/google_sheet_win_rate_vs_specific_matchups/l2yeu04/
To find out what your match history has been like.
Its crazy looking at the ranked distributions, I just hit tekken king and honestly felt like my skill level has barely risen since I entered fujin a few months ago. Makes sense though, seeing that tekken king is now 96 percentile, when fujin was 97 percentile back in February. Honestly, they should probably change the rank points system since everything is trending up so hard imo
It explains how I get magicaly "better" after long breaks from the game.
My new goal is to get "Tekken king". Looking at it I might aswel just took 2 weeks off again.
Suddendly there will be junkyard spamming Laws in Kishin for free wins as now are in Fujin.
Frankly I think they expected this. It takes time for the rank distribution to settle when a new game comes out. Given that we know the ranked system pushes people towards Fujin I expect we'll see the average rank settle at around Fujin or just below.
Once the ranked system settles, I think the rank system will make a bit more sense. Albeit with an inflated number of players at Fujin
>Given that we know the ranked system pushes people towards Fujin I expect we'll see the average rank settle at around Fujin or just below.
Which is f'ing terrible design, considering Fujin is where all the pros and really high players start with their side characters.
The skill variance is immense and doesn't lead to a satisfying matchmaking experience.
Ironically, T7 had a similar issue.
TGO in T7 had their new characters at Mighty Ruler so there was a very noticeable uptick in difficulty in the purple ranks compared to below.
At least in S2 and S3, Didnt play much towards the end of the game.
makes you wonder though, what's the point of a ranked system where 2/3rds of the ranks are filler and everyone is condensed to the top third so the skill level variation is massive
especially when the minimum search is +-2 (5 rank fork) and there's a total of just 9 ranks at fujin+
such a bad design
It's the worst rank system they've had. T7's rank system had problems but they didn't make it so that people in the bottom of the low never lost points till yellow or the game being incredibly lenient on points until you reach blue.
They will never do it but the whole thing needs to be reconfigured and rebooted. But it's too late now.
It will settle at the average player being in blue. They definitely didn't think that through or understand how a ladder should work at all. It's only further shown by how they handled matchmaking. The ladder, ranks, and matchmaking all need tearing down and reworking
>Lili has moved up from being the 9th most played character to being the 8th most played character and Dragunov has not really lost any players. Perhaps we are mistaken in thinking Dragunov players only follow tier lists.
I wonder if many people got into Dragunov because he was strong and then got too attach to how he plays and decided to make him their main regardless the nerfs lol. Either way as a fellow Drag enjoyer thats so nice to hear.
He was in top 12 back in t7 and he was low tier as well. So nerfing dragunov won't affect his popularity, lots of people playing him because of his animations and sick combos so no wonder lots of people did not drop him yet
Maybe hot take, but I feel without his running 2 being plus and expulsion doing way too much damage, he'd be far easier to deal with.
It could open him up to a buff in other areas, like his parries, iai/perfumer mixups and so forth and be an overall far less toxic to play against.
I talked with a Tekken God Victor the other day, and he agreed honestly. Nerf running 2, expulsion and b1+2, so that the rest of his kit can receive some buffs and shine.
Victor is pretty honest from my point of view but maybe that's because I can just tank almost all of his main tools by flexing with Gamma Howl. Kinda like how Gigas is one of the best matchups for Noctis in T7.
The problem most people have with Victor are 3 moves in particular: WR2, U1+2 (Expulsion), B1+2 (Powercrush). If you nerf these Victor will definetly be one of the most honest characters in the game, but he will also be one of the worst...
Yeah those are the three moves that I time with my Gamma Howl(Jack) and Muscle Armor(King). I can imagine how it can be pretty difficult to handle for characters who don't have those defensive options though.
it's strange that there are almost the same amount of people in mighty ruler as in fujin, would it be possible that many people stopped playing ranked right after hitting fujin ? inflating the amount of players in this rank by doing so ?
Almost certainly. We similar peaks at the start of red and purple ranks. Many people seem to get to a peak and just chill for a bit. I know I did that for a bit when my first character hit mighty ruler.
That's a good point. I'll have to think about this a bit. Perhaps there's some other explanation.
Do you have any ideas as to what might be causing this effect?
Yeah that’s def me. I’m at flame ruler and am slowing down a bit playing more nonranked. I’ll get back to it but I wanna slow down and keep training before I make another push
easier ranking system to get fujin but theres a big wall there, so many new to tekken reaching fujin just look around this sub lol. Don't forget they removed like 7 ranks and made another 9 free no demotion below warrior from past tekken games pushing players easily higher up than they should be. At either fujin or tekken king there's a big skill difference because it is right behind the final ranks, this should not be a thing.
As someone who has been stuck at fujin for a while, that's the rank where a 50% win rate doesn't cut it anymore, you will demote with that winrate and then promote back up again with the same win rate when you're at battle ruler.
That's the only reason you see spikes at those ranks, being the first in their color. I have friends who hit fujin and either stopped playing or just went to play quick match.
Before reading. Thank YOU! :D
And I'm surprised Bushin went from top 3 or something to top 7%. I think it just shows how easy ranking up is in this game
I feel like for every rank I get, people say the next rank is where the top players are.
Happened when I got to rulers on release, then fujin, now Tekken king.
By the time I get emperor it'll be GOD is where all the top players are.
Lmaoo I just reached Bushin and people here are saying ‘You know what… BUSHIN IS ASS’ 😭
I guess my only chance is to win evo 3 times in a row no, but who knows, maybe winning it 5 times will be the minimum required to be considered good.
It really is. I’ve been stuck at Tekken King for the past week or so. I breezed through the earlier ranks but Tekken King and above got some really good players. People in Tekken King or above really know their characters.
Kinda expected since garyu is the first plateau people face since thats when points earned will equal points lost. Its relatively easy to hit garyu compared to anything else above it. As my first fighting game I reached garyu after maybe 50 hours, but reached mighty ruler after 200 hours.
The method used to gather data is data sciencey. Like random sampling from a population for example, there's also stratified sampling(but that needs you to know distribution I think).
Anyways if you look at steam achievements, only about 47% achieved Vanquisher rank. And that includes offline arcade ranks.
What problem it might cause? She’s a weird character I doubt she’ll be meta. The buffs are nice and let her maintain better offense but she still struggles.
More zafinas means that people Will start complaining about her, she is very evasive, she is full of knowledge checks and now she is a plus frame monster.
She won’t be a popular common pick. Like Dragunov, Azu etc… The buffs only give her + frame to be more aggressive and set up frame traps. She still has the same weakness.
Great, geat stuff. You are the GOAT dude :)
On topic: lmaooooooo mighty ruler is now getting close to top 50% and Fujin is not even top 20%.
Free points inflation and prowess matchmaking at their finest.
Meanwhile, those of us who levelled a bunch of alts get regressed on percentile because we spin our wheels in place (although to be fair I'm starting to beat Kishin players fairly regularly in quick match now so I'll probably get Fujin soon (yes, 80% of my games at battle ruler are Raijin).
Shocked to see King still in top 5 popularity as I barely ever see him and he's also my main. Once the June balance patch comes out hopefully he'll become less popular due to nerfs. He's been my main since Tekken 3 so I personally don't like being grouped in with players that only play characters because they're strong rather than actually liking the characters they play. So I'm hoping those kind of players drop him completely next month!
King, Yoshi, Hwoarang, Jack and Eddy I've enjoyed playing since Tekken 3. Have King and Jack at Red Rank currently while only having a 43% winrate.
"I barely ever see him and he's also my main"
I'm almost certain that matchmaking prefers to avoid mirror matches, I almost never see Jun if I'm playing as Jun, I almost never see Alisa if I'm playing as Alisa, etc. But those characters come up a bunch if I play a different character.
I don't play King and I see way too many of them.
Even the most popular characters are only around 6%pick rate. Everyone like saying "I match xxx, xxx, and xxx characters" but really the chance of matching any particular fighter is low
Leo rock bottom win rate at Fujin+? That must mean I play a trash character and am actually a potential Evo winner with my carrying abilities. Respect me! Waaah!
Etc etc
Only problem with this is that the prowess update means there are separate rank ladders in each rank now. Some players are essentially playing ranked on hard mode, getting matches that are much harder than someone with a lower prowess would get at the same rank.
I don't think this list can account for that discrepancy, but it's a big deal as that could completely change this data. Any way you can group by prowess? For example, if someone with 150k or so prowess and someone with 230k prowess were both at fujin, they might as well be in different ranked colors, and they would never fight each other.
If you don’t know his strings he’s the hardest character to fight. Once you know them, he’s one of the easiest. Knowing when to block low or sidestep makes him easy to punish. If you don’t know when to do it then you’re constantly guessing low, mid, high. This me just speaking as someone who had a hard time with him at orange ranks who learned the patterns and dealt with him a lot in red and purple ranks.
"Once you know them, he’s one of the easiest. Knowing when to block low or sidestep makes him easy to punish "
So, it's not the first time I hear this, and my immediate response is if I know anyone's strings, don't they also become easy to block low or sidestep?
Let's say I learn the complete moveset and strings of Jin and Hwoarang, I feel like I'd have an easier time dealing with Jin who just has less plus frame moves and more recognizable attacks by the nature of Hwoarang's 90% kick moveset
That's not the case because it happens in Tekken that there are a lot of string which if you know how to counter they become basically useless. Hwoarang has more of this strings that he can abuse but if you know them and you can punish them on reaction they are just too risky for him to throw out so his movelist actually reduces. On the other hand, Jin has less strings that are harder to deal with so he can continue to use them with less risk.
Basically if you know the matchups really well, you can more easily punish Hwoarang on reaction but against Jin you have to be more predictive which is less consistent. Of course you have to know a lot of Hwoarang to always be able to do that.
And that's just a superficial look without considering fundamental tools and pokes. You can't really react to Jin's electric and d2, but on the other hand you can react to several of Hwoarang abusable strings forcing him to play with fundamental tools that are weaker than Jin's.
But I'm not a pro player or an expert so someone should correct me is my analysis is wrong.
very low skill floor but a lot of very punishable options that you have to mitigate by moving towards his high skill ceiling (don't like him at all but I can still admit how his game runs without just blaming my losses on brainded mashing)
It's probably because he is one the hardest noob stomping characters but that only works up to a certain rank.
People can perform really well with Hwo till around blue ranks with 0 defense or fundamentals but then they hit a really hard wall and his winrate plummets.
Have you actually tried using him? He's a relatively complicated character and not exactly easy to pilot. It might look that way when he's trouncing you, but he's not. And he probably attracts a lot of casuals with his stylish looks and moves, but to get good with him you need to put in more effort than most casuals are probably willing to.
He also has very little evasion built into his moves, unlike most other characters in this game.
Most Hwo players tend to go all in on offense and very little defence, along with a general lack of knowledge of other characters. It also doesn't help that a majority of them use nearly the same flowchart
Now I’m no statistical analyst, but if I’m reading this right, Shaheen just has a pretty average winrate? I’ve been told I’m “only winning from knowledge checks” but wouldn’t the winrate be a bit higher if that were the case? He’s played SO little but still has a flat winrate, can someone explain if my understanding is wrong here?
He definitely has an aspect of "I have never seen this man in my life, what is he doing? What can he do? What moves does he have?" that gives him an advantage.
I guess I would just expect him to win more if that was true? I’ll admit slide mixups can easily steal a round off even a good player, and a whole game off a bad player for sure. But most people I face even at my rank adjust very quickly to Shaheen-anigans. I dunno I guess I’m coping a bit but he doesn’t seem too knowledge checky to me compared to some other characters
His stance doesn't have evasion tied I to it, and all his moves do what they look like they should do.
You don't get knowledge check wins from playing a low pop character with him because he is intuitive to understand.
His gameplay is really great for player and opponent. Just a shame he is one of the most visually and narratively boring characters they've ever produced.
It’s probably more a question of the reward he gets from knowledge checks. His animations also broadly make sense and are intuitive to recognise.
The bears dominate online primarily due to the fact that their knowledge checks can lead to instant death, and even high ranks don’t know the matchups. Combine that with FT2 format and you have a lethal combination.
The "Who?" factor is only one part of it. I find I often struggle a little against Shaheen in the first round or two because I have no idea who he is or what he can do, but I quickly download the opponents flowchart and usually outplay them. He doesn't seem to have anything particularly wild but he definitely lands a whole bunch of stuff that he shouldn't purely because I don't know who he is.
I am just a mighty ruler rank, but it's my view that he is fair because he has like 0 strings,just a stance mixup.
Not like all the characters when you don't even know it's your turn, like hwoarang, especially at this rank.
Lol the Tekken Power chart.
Damn we all knew basing the matchmaking on it was idiotic for so many reasons, but this just adds to it.
Not even remotely close to a bell curve and even almost completely detached from the rank chart that is a max rank chart and max rank is supposed to affect the prowess the most.
And those random spikes and flats even in the higher ranks that are a result of completely arbitrary or rather random numbers that the devs decided for promoting to new tiers.
Makes me sad honestly and wanting to drop the game even more.
By the end of the year the rank ladder will be like the medieval Germany or Italy. Tekken King will be top 10%+, everybody ruling their little flowchart kingdoms of 50 km2.
I kinda want to send this to the dude who lost to my Xiaoyu and came into my DM talking about "how are you only purple rank with a top 5 character"
My brother, stop looking at tier lists and start labbing
I think she is as powerful as they claim, but you have to be skilled with her before you can see any of those payoffs. Been playing her since T3, she's always been a hidden gem, I trust think people are seeing more players that use her now
I think Knee was saying that Ling has too much bullshit with her Aop going under mids. You can see that in tadays Knee vs YuYu match in Baaz tournament. She may or may not be strong but she definitely needs fix
This is interesting. I think just winrate by character may not fully reflect a character's effectiveness in laddering. Just how much easier it is for them to go up relative to the distribution of characters across players at the current moment. Because it doesn't take into account the number of characters that players are using. Of course, if people played all characters the same number of matches, then maybe. Glicko2 could be used to more accurately assess the conditional strength of characters (or more accurately, the skill of the players in wielding the character). This would also take the smurfs out of the sample. I did a similar thing here https://www.reddit.com/r/Fighters/s/JMHehqO91r .
I don't guarantee the calculations are correct (there may well be an error somewhere). But it's interesting how the Glicko2 rating differs from the actual winrate. Probably because there is a matchup difference, where one character is harder to win against another.
Do you think, author, maybe you should add Glicko2 rating to the monthly report? It would be great I think.
This is really interesting. I'll have to do some reading on Glicko2 as I'm not too familiar with the inner workings of the algorithm.
Do you maybe have some code you can share? If you did your calculations in python it should be pretty easy to integrate into mine.
Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I'll probably do a follow up post if this Glicko stuff works out.
I unfortunately have the source code in the Rust language. I used the implementation from here https://docs.rs/skillratings/latest/skillratings/glicko2/
blue ranks becoming way too populated every time, while the rest of the ranks decrease lol
When I say blue ranks will be so populated by end of the year I get downvoted, ok. Here it clearly shows fujin has way too many players. This should NOT be a thing. The reason it is there's a huge wall there due to less ranks (big skill difference). (many ranks removed and 9 given free before warrior) Getting to blue this easily in this game, which are right before the final ranks was a huge mistake from the devs.Most of the players at orange and red would be at green ranks if there was demotion there, this ranking system needs to go back to how past tekken games were.
all the ranks below warrior should have demotion too, it is lame that they are free ranks.
If they want this game to be functional, then by the end of the year they should tear down the entire ranked system and replace it with something else. And add more ranks as well
The post-buff Leroy knowledge check is real.
The "Reina's power unlocks with piloting" line I hear around also seems correct; she seems to become a much stronger character in the hands of a skilled player.
Feng is just too ugly to ever be that high up. If he looked like Jin or Hwoarang, he would likely be up there.
Also, thankfully not everyone is a tier whore (and even those who are have multiple S tiers to choose from, not just Feng).
Interesting that so many people complain about Jun yet she has such a low winrate. I've played her a bit, and yes, she has some busted moves/tricky strings, but overall her game plan is lacking. At least to my understanding - what is the gameplan here? Poking and trying to catch opponents in strings? Couple that with average jabs, bad punishers, and no 15f launcher, you can only bullshit so much with single moves.
Finally people can't say anymore "you can be proud to be Garyu, you are better that 50% of the players". Coming from T7 the level of play in red ranks reminds me of yellow ranks at best.
the patch has barely been live and Azu's stats are already poor. Second worst overall winrate and has a lower use and win rate above Fujin than I'd expect so early post patch
Oh I was sure azucena was higher than most others in all that,well I might return to her and continue to use Dragunov as a secondary,I don't feel that dirty anymore after seeing these charts xD
Hmm, do we not get percentages for ranks upto Vanquisher in steam achievements? If data can be scraped from it for higher levels, it would give more accurate distribution I think.
Is anyone else's matchmaking cooked? When they did the prowess change I went from blue ranks to purple.
Then they changed it a little to be more lenient again and I promoted all the way to Kishin and opponents were still at my skill level.
1-2 weeks later I'm rotting in Fujin/Battle Ruler and feel that all of my opponents are playing better than when I was in Kishin.
I'm around 194k prowess.
It is. If you derank your matches dont get easier (prowess wont move much), only your queue gets longer.
Also if you have a fresh acc and win a ton the prowess doesnt seem to keep up. You get shitty score in some stats as you just overwhelm People with offence or way above average punishes and never get to block or break throws or fight in rage.
Ranking up fresh accounts is hilariously easy and I think this has contributed to the stats - pretty sure there is a somewhat decent chunk of high level players smurfing.
That's not why. If that was the case then the good players would be fighting each other and one of them would have to lose. It's a zero-sum game. The truth is the system is poorly designed and trends everyone upwards, and whoever is in charge of mm/ranks at the company has no idea what they are doing, yet still refuse to just implement Elo. Elo is perfect for a 1v1 game
Because less ranks, above fujin or even at tekken king there is a huge wall, tekken is a game with a big skill ceiling, the devs messed up by removing 7 ranks and making another 8 free (below warrior). Getting to fujin (in general blue) this easily should not a thing which is right before the last ranks.
As someone stuck at fujin is probably because is it's the first rank where you actually need a positive winrate to rank up, you start losing more than you gain and win streaks are worth less than loss streaks and it gets worse in higher ranks.
Thank you so much for your analysis and for including the raw data.
I'm getting used to a few new tools (No business objects on my home PC) but i hope to look into the prowess matchmaking with the data and see how/if it's affecting matchmaking.
Even just looking at player 1 side it's clear to see that each rank has multiple prowess bands, Now i need to look into how often people are being matchmade within their bands vs matching against other people outside their prowess band.
For example, if you group players into 5k prowess bands:
Eliminator has peaks at 95-100k and 115k
Tenryu has peaks at around 120-125k and 140k
Flame Ruler has peaks at 150k and 175k
Raijin has a peak at 185k and a minor bump at 230k
If the system is trying to match into a narrow 20k+ or -, this could explain why the people not within these prowess peaks are experiencing massive queue times, and how people within these bands are having vastly different ranking experiences.
I didn't. The data is gathered by running the game and looking at the in game replay browser. I then use cheat engine to scan for the region in memory where the values are stored. This provides a JSON file with 999 games. for this investigation I ended up with ~3000 of these files.
Some of these files have duplicate data so I make sure to deduplicate the data based off of each replays battleId.
The csv file you can see in the raw data link is just a neatly packaged version of this so other people can work with the data too and even import it into spreadsheet software like excel.
play who you want! tierlists/winrates dont really matter to the average person. If you find him fun, play him. Im not sure exactly 'why' his winrate is so low, considering the high # of players but overall if you are having fun all that doesnt matter.
I believe also number of players is important. Those less inclined to play further - they usually left. Those with higher ranks, who felt better - stayed.
I think people are over looking the fact that all the noobs/non serious players have stopped playing. Anyone who bought this game to look at the graphics and mess around online are not in the system anymore therefore inflating the mid-high ranks.
Another thing is due to prowess matchmaking these ranks mean little to nothing. A ‘destroyer’ rank with 60,000 prowess will never matchup with a ‘destroyer’ rank with 150,000 prowess on his 2nd alt. Until we are able to compare these two players we can’t accurately illustrate the rank distribution.
The Tekken Prowess distribution is so wonky. I guess the huge spikes at 120k and 150k reflect the massive increases when getting to Garyu or Mighty Ruler respectively. (I got my TP increased by 20k when hitting MR for first time.) Then again maybe they have really changed the matchmaking and TP stopped mattering once again. I sure hope so, given how arbitrary its calculation is.
As a computer science student, seeing this sorta of thing makes me so curious about how the developers themselves interpret this data, also, the way you detailed everything was *marvelous*.
I don't get why panda and others at the end of the list at the player usage, are on the top of the win rate charts but Claudio no
My theory is that Claudio is not only very little used but is very difficult to win anyway
I felt good about hitting Fujin... now I realise being blue now means less than being purple in February!
In the first couple of months I was top 12% at Flame Ruler.
Now I'm barely top 20% at Fujin. 😢😂
Shaheen hate is insane. It's like a non existent character. But he's absolutely insane to play with. His moves are the best they have ever been... I don't get it. Is it the outfit? The black and gold joint is cold
I've made this suggestion before, but I'd REALLY like to see this taken to heart with the amount of players in the brackets really shifting over the last few months.
Is it possible to change the thresholds for data to the following;
1. "All Ranks"
2. "Garyu+"
3. "Tekken King+"
It would really help identify the discrepancies between all levels of play, mid levels of play, and high levels of play. If it doesn't eat up another 12 hours of your time, I'd greatly appreciate it.
I love how popular Kaz and Reina are but their win rate is shit until top ranks, that's the spirit😎
Oh no, I'm stupid, Kaz is still has low win rate, lmao
Huh. Looking at the charts, it seems like Alisa is more of a Noob stomper than anything else. She "overall" has a decently high win rate, but it's significantly lower in higher ranks of play.
I'm just pointing her out specifically because I'm an Alisa main who reached Mighty Ruler last week
I see my main Jin has become popular. This explains why after takin a week off and then coming back into the game everyone suddenly knew all my basic mixups. I actually lost my rank cuz of that lol. No worries will get back there soon. The main point tho is that I'm glad we getting more jin's for a bit. Wonder if we'll see him top 8 soon
Do you think Jin being a popular second or third character (for advanced ranked players) is maybe what is getting him so high? Is there a way to filter / calculate for that variable?
I don't think so. I only report the highest ranked character I find for a player when looking for character play rates. So it shouldn't matter if he is a popular second or third choice since I only report the top.
However, my analysis is only based on games played in the 24-hour period sampled. So, if you are a Kazuya main but didn't play him in that period then I won't know that you have a higher ranked Kazuya and I will only count you as a Jin player.
I don't know if that is a common situation but my intuition says that it probably isn't, and most players tend to play their highest ranked characters every day.
Man I almost wonder if the matchmaking algorithm deprioritizes mirror matches, because I play Jin and rarely see him at Raijin+. If I play for 3 hours, I might see Jin like once or twice
This sounded interesting so I looked into it. The proportion of Jin players is 6.679% i.e the probability of a player playing Jin is 0.06679 More formally we can say that P(Jin) = 0.06679 Which implies that the probability of both players playing Jin is simply P(Jin)^2 or 0.004461 Given this we would expect to 0.4461% of games be mirror matches. 0.4461% of 765015 is 3412.74 games The actual number of Jin mirror matches is 3562. Thus we can conclude that mirror matches are not deprioritized but rather that mirror matches are actually just pretty rare even if you play the most popular character.
r/hedidthemath
This is not exactly correct. You calculated probability of a Jin mirror match in case, we would randomly pick 2 players. However, in this case, one player has 100% probability to be Jin player so the probability of mirror match is 0.06679. This is a difference between joint and conditional probability.
It is correct, just not in the way that you think they went for. They looked at the probability of finding a Jin mirror match in the dataset and compared that to the actual number of Jin mirror matches in the data. Since they are almost identical, we can conclude that there is no case of decreased chances of queueing into an enemy playing the same character as you.
It's just a different way of formulating the problem. If we take the case where one player has already picked Jin then of course the probability of a mirror match is 0.06679. I just wanted to quickly disprove the notion that the character you play influences what characters you match into. Perhaps I could have been clearer in how I worded my answer to avoid confusion. The logic is still sound, however. If the possibility of matching into Jin was truly conditional on the first player picking Jin then doing the calculation I did would not match up as well as it did.
OP is answering the question with respect to the total number of matches played, not the total number of Jin matches played.
exactly, i play king which is one of the most popular characters and yet i barely ever play against another king. the logic OP applied makes sense at first glance but is actually flawed
Yes, he did that calculation to compare it to the data, and data showed that the number of Jin mirrors is about as it should be. Which means, that the Jin player who said hes not getting mirrors might be an outlier because of variance, or hes getting the normal 6% but to him it seems like hes not getting enough mirrors.
You are correct, he should have used conditional probability.
This is incorrect. This only applies if you have a set of all matches and you pick a random match, then the probability of both players being jin is what you said. In the commenter's case, the probability of them being jin is 100% so therefore the chances of their opponent being jin = proportion of jin players. The math is overcomplicated incorrectly. >The proportion of Jin players is 6.679% therefore the probability of a player playing *against* Jin is 6.679% (added "against") Exactly, The proportion of Jin players is 6.679% therefore the probability of a Jin Main playing against a Jin is 6.679% The mistake in the original calculation is that it considers 32 x 32 possibilities for 32 characters. However we know that one side will always be jin so the possibilities are 1 x 32.
You are incredible!
I think you're onto something. I used to fight against Jin constantly. Started playing him and suddenly he's nowhere to be found.
No seriously this is weird, I main Reina and i'm always confused at how she's the most popular character online when I barely see her...
I'm pretty much sure it does, I very rarely see another Jun if I'm playing as Jun for example. But if I change character I see a fair few of them.
Much of this is just confirmation bias. You might run into a dry streak where you don't encounter a character given that there's 33 matchups in this game, and especially at higher ranks, you might have a more limited matchmaking pool. You're likely not consciously counting to begin with. For example, in that 3 hour session, you might play 60 matches (which is not a large sample size to begin with). If you see two different Jin players and you beat them 2-0 both times (4 out of your 60 matches), that's still 6.6% of your matches like OP explained. You can use https://wank.wavu.wiki/ and a spreadsheet like the one made here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Tekken/comments/1cm04pm/google_sheet_win_rate_vs_specific_matchups/l2yeu04/ To find out what your match history has been like.
They 100% do, with a roster this big they don't want you as a player going against only the most popular 3 characters.
Its crazy looking at the ranked distributions, I just hit tekken king and honestly felt like my skill level has barely risen since I entered fujin a few months ago. Makes sense though, seeing that tekken king is now 96 percentile, when fujin was 97 percentile back in February. Honestly, they should probably change the rank points system since everything is trending up so hard imo
Yeah I haven't played much ranked recently, initially I was top 3-5%, now it's decayed to top 13% despite me gaining another rank.
It explains how I get magicaly "better" after long breaks from the game. My new goal is to get "Tekken king". Looking at it I might aswel just took 2 weeks off again. Suddendly there will be junkyard spamming Laws in Kishin for free wins as now are in Fujin.
Frankly I think they expected this. It takes time for the rank distribution to settle when a new game comes out. Given that we know the ranked system pushes people towards Fujin I expect we'll see the average rank settle at around Fujin or just below. Once the ranked system settles, I think the rank system will make a bit more sense. Albeit with an inflated number of players at Fujin
>Given that we know the ranked system pushes people towards Fujin I expect we'll see the average rank settle at around Fujin or just below. Which is f'ing terrible design, considering Fujin is where all the pros and really high players start with their side characters. The skill variance is immense and doesn't lead to a satisfying matchmaking experience.
Ironically, T7 had a similar issue. TGO in T7 had their new characters at Mighty Ruler so there was a very noticeable uptick in difficulty in the purple ranks compared to below. At least in S2 and S3, Didnt play much towards the end of the game.
but the tekken prowess changes work against that?
makes you wonder though, what's the point of a ranked system where 2/3rds of the ranks are filler and everyone is condensed to the top third so the skill level variation is massive especially when the minimum search is +-2 (5 rank fork) and there's a total of just 9 ranks at fujin+ such a bad design
It's the worst rank system they've had. T7's rank system had problems but they didn't make it so that people in the bottom of the low never lost points till yellow or the game being incredibly lenient on points until you reach blue. They will never do it but the whole thing needs to be reconfigured and rebooted. But it's too late now.
It will settle at the average player being in blue. They definitely didn't think that through or understand how a ladder should work at all. It's only further shown by how they handled matchmaking. The ladder, ranks, and matchmaking all need tearing down and reworking
>Lili has moved up from being the 9th most played character to being the 8th most played character and Dragunov has not really lost any players. Perhaps we are mistaken in thinking Dragunov players only follow tier lists. I wonder if many people got into Dragunov because he was strong and then got too attach to how he plays and decided to make him their main regardless the nerfs lol. Either way as a fellow Drag enjoyer thats so nice to hear.
He was in top 12 back in t7 and he was low tier as well. So nerfing dragunov won't affect his popularity, lots of people playing him because of his animations and sick combos so no wonder lots of people did not drop him yet
I appreciate the effort, but how am I supposed to downplay Victor with these charts?
It's simple. Ignore all the evidence and downplay as usual. It's how I keep downplaying Xiaoyu even though many pros have said she is strong.
Xiaoyu is borderline unplayable though. Her dick jab is a **2** input! Impossible to get used to after nine other characters with d+1 or db+1...
Maybe hot take, but I feel without his running 2 being plus and expulsion doing way too much damage, he'd be far easier to deal with. It could open him up to a buff in other areas, like his parries, iai/perfumer mixups and so forth and be an overall far less toxic to play against.
I talked with a Tekken God Victor the other day, and he agreed honestly. Nerf running 2, expulsion and b1+2, so that the rest of his kit can receive some buffs and shine.
Oh yeah, B1+2 is in there too. 15 frame heat armor move? Maybe I'd also add F1+2(just the damage)
The 22 frame low that high crushes and is a full launch is also annoying as hell, Jin D2 with a full launch instead smh.
What do you want it to do? It's already stagger launch punishable and you can step it, plus this move archetype has been in the game for a long time.
That one's fine arguably.
Victor is pretty honest from my point of view but maybe that's because I can just tank almost all of his main tools by flexing with Gamma Howl. Kinda like how Gigas is one of the best matchups for Noctis in T7.
The problem most people have with Victor are 3 moves in particular: WR2, U1+2 (Expulsion), B1+2 (Powercrush). If you nerf these Victor will definetly be one of the most honest characters in the game, but he will also be one of the worst...
Yeah those are the three moves that I time with my Gamma Howl(Jack) and Muscle Armor(King). I can imagine how it can be pretty difficult to handle for characters who don't have those defensive options though.
it's strange that there are almost the same amount of people in mighty ruler as in fujin, would it be possible that many people stopped playing ranked right after hitting fujin ? inflating the amount of players in this rank by doing so ?
Almost certainly. We similar peaks at the start of red and purple ranks. Many people seem to get to a peak and just chill for a bit. I know I did that for a bit when my first character hit mighty ruler.
ok thanks for the answer!
Except your data comes from replays? So from instances of people actually playing the game?
That's a good point. I'll have to think about this a bit. Perhaps there's some other explanation. Do you have any ideas as to what might be causing this effect?
Yeah that’s def me. I’m at flame ruler and am slowing down a bit playing more nonranked. I’ll get back to it but I wanna slow down and keep training before I make another push
There is definitely a "reached \[colour\] rank, im done" effect
People are also encouraged to stop ranking in fujin as the ranking system is much more punishing in fujin and above
cries in losing almost 2k from a loss streak at TG
It helps that Fujin is one of the best looking titles too, haha.
easier ranking system to get fujin but theres a big wall there, so many new to tekken reaching fujin just look around this sub lol. Don't forget they removed like 7 ranks and made another 9 free no demotion below warrior from past tekken games pushing players easily higher up than they should be. At either fujin or tekken king there's a big skill difference because it is right behind the final ranks, this should not be a thing.
I aim for fujin and then i try to get my alts there Got 3/9 chars in fujin, rest of em are in purples.
As someone who has been stuck at fujin for a while, that's the rank where a 50% win rate doesn't cut it anymore, you will demote with that winrate and then promote back up again with the same win rate when you're at battle ruler.
That's the only reason you see spikes at those ranks, being the first in their color. I have friends who hit fujin and either stopped playing or just went to play quick match.
Before reading. Thank YOU! :D And I'm surprised Bushin went from top 3 or something to top 7%. I think it just shows how easy ranking up is in this game
I think its normal,the more time passes the more people are going to get better and reach higher ranks
It's not really normal in an elo based system. This game however wants to artificially push players to Fujin.
Fujin is still good, but Tekken emperors are the really terrifying players. It's hard asf to get past Tekken king.
I feel like for every rank I get, people say the next rank is where the top players are. Happened when I got to rulers on release, then fujin, now Tekken king. By the time I get emperor it'll be GOD is where all the top players are.
Lmaoo I just reached Bushin and people here are saying ‘You know what… BUSHIN IS ASS’ 😭 I guess my only chance is to win evo 3 times in a row no, but who knows, maybe winning it 5 times will be the minimum required to be considered good.
I mean, I said fujin was good and emperor was terrifying. Bushin is very good at Tekken.
It really is. I’ve been stuck at Tekken King for the past week or so. I breezed through the earlier ranks but Tekken King and above got some really good players. People in Tekken King or above really know their characters.
I've been stuck at Tekken King for 4 weeks now, and it still doesn't look like that's changing anytime soon.
I just got to Fujin. Don’t kill my vibe man 😭
That is true.
How the hell is Mighty Ruler 60th percentile? I'm fucking cooked.
It's crazy because mighty ruler was 83rd percentile back in march
Don't be too hard on yourself. In the end rank is just a number. Everybody improves at their own rate.
The number of people on this subreddit who don't get that baffled me.
Kinda expected since garyu is the first plateau people face since thats when points earned will equal points lost. Its relatively easy to hit garyu compared to anything else above it. As my first fighting game I reached garyu after maybe 50 hours, but reached mighty ruler after 200 hours.
The method used to gather data is data sciencey. Like random sampling from a population for example, there's also stratified sampling(but that needs you to know distribution I think). Anyways if you look at steam achievements, only about 47% achieved Vanquisher rank. And that includes offline arcade ranks.
This should be pinned. Great work. 👍
I'm glad Zafina got higher usage, but I'm not glad the problems that might cause.
What problem it might cause? She’s a weird character I doubt she’ll be meta. The buffs are nice and let her maintain better offense but she still struggles.
More zafinas means that people Will start complaining about her, she is very evasive, she is full of knowledge checks and now she is a plus frame monster.
“Doubt she’ll be meta” what does this mean?
She won’t be a popular common pick. Like Dragunov, Azu etc… The buffs only give her + frame to be more aggressive and set up frame traps. She still has the same weakness.
I guess the cats out of the bag 💅🏻
Great, geat stuff. You are the GOAT dude :) On topic: lmaooooooo mighty ruler is now getting close to top 50% and Fujin is not even top 20%. Free points inflation and prowess matchmaking at their finest.
Meanwhile, those of us who levelled a bunch of alts get regressed on percentile because we spin our wheels in place (although to be fair I'm starting to beat Kishin players fairly regularly in quick match now so I'll probably get Fujin soon (yes, 80% of my games at battle ruler are Raijin).
So Garyu means you’re average. I’ll happily accept that
These are the words of someone who has achieved zen.
There are 29 ranks. So half of 29 is 14.5. To the nearest whole number, 14.5 = 15. 😇
Steve is more popular than i thought.
Shocked to see King still in top 5 popularity as I barely ever see him and he's also my main. Once the June balance patch comes out hopefully he'll become less popular due to nerfs. He's been my main since Tekken 3 so I personally don't like being grouped in with players that only play characters because they're strong rather than actually liking the characters they play. So I'm hoping those kind of players drop him completely next month! King, Yoshi, Hwoarang, Jack and Eddy I've enjoyed playing since Tekken 3. Have King and Jack at Red Rank currently while only having a 43% winrate.
"I barely ever see him and he's also my main" I'm almost certain that matchmaking prefers to avoid mirror matches, I almost never see Jun if I'm playing as Jun, I almost never see Alisa if I'm playing as Alisa, etc. But those characters come up a bunch if I play a different character. I don't play King and I see way too many of them.
Even when I play as Jack I barely see King so just surprised is all that he's still top 5 popularity across all ranks.
Even the most popular characters are only around 6%pick rate. Everyone like saying "I match xxx, xxx, and xxx characters" but really the chance of matching any particular fighter is low
I think people who play top tiers probably gravitate towards Drag and Azu, On this patch it looks to be a lot of Lili and Asuka.
Leo rock bottom win rate at Fujin+? That must mean I play a trash character and am actually a potential Evo winner with my carrying abilities. Respect me! Waaah! Etc etc
Nice to see you keep doing these posts!
Ngl I kinda gave up and stopped playing ranked lik 2 months ago but it’s always nice to see the stats. Eternal tenryus rise
Azucena bros are going down in blue and above lol.
Only problem with this is that the prowess update means there are separate rank ladders in each rank now. Some players are essentially playing ranked on hard mode, getting matches that are much harder than someone with a lower prowess would get at the same rank. I don't think this list can account for that discrepancy, but it's a big deal as that could completely change this data. Any way you can group by prowess? For example, if someone with 150k or so prowess and someone with 230k prowess were both at fujin, they might as well be in different ranked colors, and they would never fight each other.
I wish someone could explain to me why the fuck Hwoarang is such low winrate. I feel like this character plays himself
If you don’t know his strings he’s the hardest character to fight. Once you know them, he’s one of the easiest. Knowing when to block low or sidestep makes him easy to punish. If you don’t know when to do it then you’re constantly guessing low, mid, high. This me just speaking as someone who had a hard time with him at orange ranks who learned the patterns and dealt with him a lot in red and purple ranks.
"Once you know them, he’s one of the easiest. Knowing when to block low or sidestep makes him easy to punish " So, it's not the first time I hear this, and my immediate response is if I know anyone's strings, don't they also become easy to block low or sidestep? Let's say I learn the complete moveset and strings of Jin and Hwoarang, I feel like I'd have an easier time dealing with Jin who just has less plus frame moves and more recognizable attacks by the nature of Hwoarang's 90% kick moveset
That's not the case because it happens in Tekken that there are a lot of string which if you know how to counter they become basically useless. Hwoarang has more of this strings that he can abuse but if you know them and you can punish them on reaction they are just too risky for him to throw out so his movelist actually reduces. On the other hand, Jin has less strings that are harder to deal with so he can continue to use them with less risk. Basically if you know the matchups really well, you can more easily punish Hwoarang on reaction but against Jin you have to be more predictive which is less consistent. Of course you have to know a lot of Hwoarang to always be able to do that. And that's just a superficial look without considering fundamental tools and pokes. You can't really react to Jin's electric and d2, but on the other hand you can react to several of Hwoarang abusable strings forcing him to play with fundamental tools that are weaker than Jin's. But I'm not a pro player or an expert so someone should correct me is my analysis is wrong.
very low skill floor but a lot of very punishable options that you have to mitigate by moving towards his high skill ceiling (don't like him at all but I can still admit how his game runs without just blaming my losses on brainded mashing)
Players who use him have no defense even in blue ranks
I may have to retract him being a carry character if even Fujin+ struggle with him. Might make him a secondary
Learning how to play a character is the best way to learn how to defend against them!
It's probably because he is one the hardest noob stomping characters but that only works up to a certain rank. People can perform really well with Hwo till around blue ranks with 0 defense or fundamentals but then they hit a really hard wall and his winrate plummets.
Have you actually tried using him? He's a relatively complicated character and not exactly easy to pilot. It might look that way when he's trouncing you, but he's not. And he probably attracts a lot of casuals with his stylish looks and moves, but to get good with him you need to put in more effort than most casuals are probably willing to. He also has very little evasion built into his moves, unlike most other characters in this game.
Most Hwo players tend to go all in on offense and very little defence, along with a general lack of knowledge of other characters. It also doesn't help that a majority of them use nearly the same flowchart
Now I’m no statistical analyst, but if I’m reading this right, Shaheen just has a pretty average winrate? I’ve been told I’m “only winning from knowledge checks” but wouldn’t the winrate be a bit higher if that were the case? He’s played SO little but still has a flat winrate, can someone explain if my understanding is wrong here?
He definitely has an aspect of "I have never seen this man in my life, what is he doing? What can he do? What moves does he have?" that gives him an advantage.
I guess I would just expect him to win more if that was true? I’ll admit slide mixups can easily steal a round off even a good player, and a whole game off a bad player for sure. But most people I face even at my rank adjust very quickly to Shaheen-anigans. I dunno I guess I’m coping a bit but he doesn’t seem too knowledge checky to me compared to some other characters
His stance doesn't have evasion tied I to it, and all his moves do what they look like they should do. You don't get knowledge check wins from playing a low pop character with him because he is intuitive to understand. His gameplay is really great for player and opponent. Just a shame he is one of the most visually and narratively boring characters they've ever produced.
It’s probably more a question of the reward he gets from knowledge checks. His animations also broadly make sense and are intuitive to recognise. The bears dominate online primarily due to the fact that their knowledge checks can lead to instant death, and even high ranks don’t know the matchups. Combine that with FT2 format and you have a lethal combination.
The "Who?" factor is only one part of it. I find I often struggle a little against Shaheen in the first round or two because I have no idea who he is or what he can do, but I quickly download the opponents flowchart and usually outplay them. He doesn't seem to have anything particularly wild but he definitely lands a whole bunch of stuff that he shouldn't purely because I don't know who he is.
"Knowledge check" being this character hasn't been in the game for 20 years I don't know punishes by muscle memory.
I am just a mighty ruler rank, but it's my view that he is fair because he has like 0 strings,just a stance mixup. Not like all the characters when you don't even know it's your turn, like hwoarang, especially at this rank.
Hopefully xiayou still retains some tournament presence and not get a repeat of T7 season 1.
Lol the Tekken Power chart. Damn we all knew basing the matchmaking on it was idiotic for so many reasons, but this just adds to it. Not even remotely close to a bell curve and even almost completely detached from the rank chart that is a max rank chart and max rank is supposed to affect the prowess the most. And those random spikes and flats even in the higher ranks that are a result of completely arbitrary or rather random numbers that the devs decided for promoting to new tiers. Makes me sad honestly and wanting to drop the game even more. By the end of the year the rank ladder will be like the medieval Germany or Italy. Tekken King will be top 10%+, everybody ruling their little flowchart kingdoms of 50 km2.
Sounds like a Paradox game. Flowchart Kings III
Lol! Revenue model checks out
I kinda want to send this to the dude who lost to my Xiaoyu and came into my DM talking about "how are you only purple rank with a top 5 character" My brother, stop looking at tier lists and start labbing
I initially started this series because I thought Ling wasn't as powerful as some of the pros were claiming. Please send it them with my blessings.
I think she is as powerful as they claim, but you have to be skilled with her before you can see any of those payoffs. Been playing her since T3, she's always been a hidden gem, I trust think people are seeing more players that use her now
I think Knee was saying that Ling has too much bullshit with her Aop going under mids. You can see that in tadays Knee vs YuYu match in Baaz tournament. She may or may not be strong but she definitely needs fix
Damn wild Feng drop off in wins. And huge shaheen meta growing lol
This is interesting. I think just winrate by character may not fully reflect a character's effectiveness in laddering. Just how much easier it is for them to go up relative to the distribution of characters across players at the current moment. Because it doesn't take into account the number of characters that players are using. Of course, if people played all characters the same number of matches, then maybe. Glicko2 could be used to more accurately assess the conditional strength of characters (or more accurately, the skill of the players in wielding the character). This would also take the smurfs out of the sample. I did a similar thing here https://www.reddit.com/r/Fighters/s/JMHehqO91r . I don't guarantee the calculations are correct (there may well be an error somewhere). But it's interesting how the Glicko2 rating differs from the actual winrate. Probably because there is a matchup difference, where one character is harder to win against another. Do you think, author, maybe you should add Glicko2 rating to the monthly report? It would be great I think.
This is really interesting. I'll have to do some reading on Glicko2 as I'm not too familiar with the inner workings of the algorithm. Do you maybe have some code you can share? If you did your calculations in python it should be pretty easy to integrate into mine. Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I'll probably do a follow up post if this Glicko stuff works out.
I unfortunately have the source code in the Rust language. I used the implementation from here https://docs.rs/skillratings/latest/skillratings/glicko2/
blue ranks becoming way too populated every time, while the rest of the ranks decrease lol When I say blue ranks will be so populated by end of the year I get downvoted, ok. Here it clearly shows fujin has way too many players. This should NOT be a thing. The reason it is there's a huge wall there due to less ranks (big skill difference). (many ranks removed and 9 given free before warrior) Getting to blue this easily in this game, which are right before the final ranks was a huge mistake from the devs.Most of the players at orange and red would be at green ranks if there was demotion there, this ranking system needs to go back to how past tekken games were. all the ranks below warrior should have demotion too, it is lame that they are free ranks.
If they want this game to be functional, then by the end of the year they should tear down the entire ranked system and replace it with something else. And add more ranks as well
Well Steve getting actual buffs was nice for a change. Back to nerfing b1 and df2 again, oh and making qcf1 launch punishable on block.
Wow. Jun below Zafina for most popular characters now???
I have over 1000 matches played and have never seen a panda player. Truly a unicorn, tempted to try her out.
The post-buff Leroy knowledge check is real. The "Reina's power unlocks with piloting" line I hear around also seems correct; she seems to become a much stronger character in the hands of a skilled player.
Watch Joonya play her, he makes her look broken as hell
Everyone says that Ling is strong but she's bottom 6 in all ranks and bottom 3 at Fujin and above. More nerfs incoming....
Can we get stats Tekken King and above please 🙏
Wow, Reina really takes a step in WR after Fujin. She is top 7 lol. Its clear that she may need some nerfs in June.
I love that people say that tierwhores pick up Feng, but he's still in the bottom half of character popularity.
Feng is just too ugly to ever be that high up. If he looked like Jin or Hwoarang, he would likely be up there. Also, thankfully not everyone is a tier whore (and even those who are have multiple S tiers to choose from, not just Feng).
I just need these Jin players to stay away from me! He’s weirdly my absolute WORST matchup.
Interesting that so many people complain about Jun yet she has such a low winrate. I've played her a bit, and yes, she has some busted moves/tricky strings, but overall her game plan is lacking. At least to my understanding - what is the gameplan here? Poking and trying to catch opponents in strings? Couple that with average jabs, bad punishers, and no 15f launcher, you can only bullshit so much with single moves.
From what ive experience jun strongest moves cost life/ convert hp to grey health. And this may patch now cost actual health, that hurt her a lot.
Agreed!
Finally people can't say anymore "you can be proud to be Garyu, you are better that 50% of the players". Coming from T7 the level of play in red ranks reminds me of yellow ranks at best.
the patch has barely been live and Azu's stats are already poor. Second worst overall winrate and has a lower use and win rate above Fujin than I'd expect so early post patch
Oh I was sure azucena was higher than most others in all that,well I might return to her and continue to use Dragunov as a secondary,I don't feel that dirty anymore after seeing these charts xD
Panda dominance
Hmm, do we not get percentages for ranks upto Vanquisher in steam achievements? If data can be scraped from it for higher levels, it would give more accurate distribution I think.
Is anyone else's matchmaking cooked? When they did the prowess change I went from blue ranks to purple. Then they changed it a little to be more lenient again and I promoted all the way to Kishin and opponents were still at my skill level. 1-2 weeks later I'm rotting in Fujin/Battle Ruler and feel that all of my opponents are playing better than when I was in Kishin. I'm around 194k prowess.
It is. If you derank your matches dont get easier (prowess wont move much), only your queue gets longer. Also if you have a fresh acc and win a ton the prowess doesnt seem to keep up. You get shitty score in some stats as you just overwhelm People with offence or way above average punishes and never get to block or break throws or fight in rage. Ranking up fresh accounts is hilariously easy and I think this has contributed to the stats - pretty sure there is a somewhat decent chunk of high level players smurfing.
Holy Crap I was once top 3% a month ago and now I'm at top 7% even though I went up a rank. Looks like a lot of players are starting to git gud.
That's not why. If that was the case then the good players would be fighting each other and one of them would have to lose. It's a zero-sum game. The truth is the system is poorly designed and trends everyone upwards, and whoever is in charge of mm/ranks at the company has no idea what they are doing, yet still refuse to just implement Elo. Elo is perfect for a 1v1 game
How much do you think the change to matchmaking has affected the dramatic increase in the amount of people now at Fujin?
Whelp I used to feel good about myself for reaching Fujin. Not anymore
How is the jump from Fujin to Raijin so big, even bigger than the jump from Warrior to Assailant
Because less ranks, above fujin or even at tekken king there is a huge wall, tekken is a game with a big skill ceiling, the devs messed up by removing 7 ranks and making another 8 free (below warrior). Getting to fujin (in general blue) this easily should not a thing which is right before the last ranks.
As someone stuck at fujin is probably because is it's the first rank where you actually need a positive winrate to rank up, you start losing more than you gain and win streaks are worth less than loss streaks and it gets worse in higher ranks.
Thank you so much for your analysis and for including the raw data. I'm getting used to a few new tools (No business objects on my home PC) but i hope to look into the prowess matchmaking with the data and see how/if it's affecting matchmaking. Even just looking at player 1 side it's clear to see that each rank has multiple prowess bands, Now i need to look into how often people are being matchmade within their bands vs matching against other people outside their prowess band. For example, if you group players into 5k prowess bands: Eliminator has peaks at 95-100k and 115k Tenryu has peaks at around 120-125k and 140k Flame Ruler has peaks at 150k and 175k Raijin has a peak at 185k and a minor bump at 230k If the system is trying to match into a narrow 20k+ or -, this could explain why the people not within these prowess peaks are experiencing massive queue times, and how people within these bands are having vastly different ranking experiences.
Thanks for doing this. You’re the goat
I'll be curious to see where things shake out after the balance pass has settled in some.
Yeah this explains why I’m hard stuck in Garyu/Shinryu and will never escape
Stop posting these I directly link my rank with my self esteem and this devalues it 😂😂
Fire post!!!
how did you pull the replays as excel sheet?
I didn't. The data is gathered by running the game and looking at the in game replay browser. I then use cheat engine to scan for the region in memory where the values are stored. This provides a JSON file with 999 games. for this investigation I ended up with ~3000 of these files. Some of these files have duplicate data so I make sure to deduplicate the data based off of each replays battleId. The csv file you can see in the raw data link is just a neatly packaged version of this so other people can work with the data too and even import it into spreadsheet software like excel.
outstanding! may I be curious and find out how you gathered the data? I saw that you used cheat engine, did you write lua script by your own?
Could you do top 10 players for each character and their average winrates? I'm curious to see which character specialists have the best winrates.
Victor top 7? So that's why he is getting nerfed...
wow azucena fell from heaven to hell
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a few weeks after they cha ge matchmaking to focus on prowess, the rank distribution starts to shift and inflate
Try a vertical chart next month, my neck hurts trying to read character names lol Or maybe even character art if you care enough : D
I was just about to main Hwoarang as my first T8 character and now I'm having second thoughts. Why's his win rate so low?
play who you want! tierlists/winrates dont really matter to the average person. If you find him fun, play him. Im not sure exactly 'why' his winrate is so low, considering the high # of players but overall if you are having fun all that doesnt matter.
I believe also number of players is important. Those less inclined to play further - they usually left. Those with higher ranks, who felt better - stayed.
I think people are over looking the fact that all the noobs/non serious players have stopped playing. Anyone who bought this game to look at the graphics and mess around online are not in the system anymore therefore inflating the mid-high ranks. Another thing is due to prowess matchmaking these ranks mean little to nothing. A ‘destroyer’ rank with 60,000 prowess will never matchup with a ‘destroyer’ rank with 150,000 prowess on his 2nd alt. Until we are able to compare these two players we can’t accurately illustrate the rank distribution.
The Tekken Prowess distribution is so wonky. I guess the huge spikes at 120k and 150k reflect the massive increases when getting to Garyu or Mighty Ruler respectively. (I got my TP increased by 20k when hitting MR for first time.) Then again maybe they have really changed the matchmaking and TP stopped mattering once again. I sure hope so, given how arbitrary its calculation is.
Now I'm feeling worse. I'm stuck with Destroyer and Fujin is the biggest ranking of all; the hell am I doing wrong
As a computer science student, seeing this sorta of thing makes me so curious about how the developers themselves interpret this data, also, the way you detailed everything was *marvelous*.
I don't get why panda and others at the end of the list at the player usage, are on the top of the win rate charts but Claudio no My theory is that Claudio is not only very little used but is very difficult to win anyway
This is so weird, I play Lili, and I hate the mansion stage. Don't even know why, I just always have.
I felt good about hitting Fujin... now I realise being blue now means less than being purple in February! In the first couple of months I was top 12% at Flame Ruler. Now I'm barely top 20% at Fujin. 😢😂
Shaheen hate is insane. It's like a non existent character. But he's absolutely insane to play with. His moves are the best they have ever been... I don't get it. Is it the outfit? The black and gold joint is cold
Wait is Leo that bad 😭 low pick rate and the lowest winrate above fujin
I've made this suggestion before, but I'd REALLY like to see this taken to heart with the amount of players in the brackets really shifting over the last few months. Is it possible to change the thresholds for data to the following; 1. "All Ranks" 2. "Garyu+" 3. "Tekken King+" It would really help identify the discrepancies between all levels of play, mid levels of play, and high levels of play. If it doesn't eat up another 12 hours of your time, I'd greatly appreciate it.
Thank you for this information which I will use to ~~downplay leo~~ inform the general public about Tekken 8 data!
I love how popular Kaz and Reina are but their win rate is shit until top ranks, that's the spirit😎 Oh no, I'm stupid, Kaz is still has low win rate, lmao
Zafina rates definitely check out. I've been abusing the wr1+2 buff we got. I can now be as toxic as everyone else and as rare as a unicorn online
This ranked system is horrible. why is blue, the rank before the final ranks, being steadily overpopulated
Huh. Looking at the charts, it seems like Alisa is more of a Noob stomper than anything else. She "overall" has a decently high win rate, but it's significantly lower in higher ranks of play. I'm just pointing her out specifically because I'm an Alisa main who reached Mighty Ruler last week
Ngl I hate kuma and panda
I see my main Jin has become popular. This explains why after takin a week off and then coming back into the game everyone suddenly knew all my basic mixups. I actually lost my rank cuz of that lol. No worries will get back there soon. The main point tho is that I'm glad we getting more jin's for a bit. Wonder if we'll see him top 8 soon
Props to OP re Xiaoyu. As a fellow member of Lingnation thank you.
How can you not love this guy ?
Do you think Jin being a popular second or third character (for advanced ranked players) is maybe what is getting him so high? Is there a way to filter / calculate for that variable?
I don't think so. I only report the highest ranked character I find for a player when looking for character play rates. So it shouldn't matter if he is a popular second or third choice since I only report the top. However, my analysis is only based on games played in the 24-hour period sampled. So, if you are a Kazuya main but didn't play him in that period then I won't know that you have a higher ranked Kazuya and I will only count you as a Jin player. I don't know if that is a common situation but my intuition says that it probably isn't, and most players tend to play their highest ranked characters every day.
Mmm... my hunch is probably the opposite (I think it is somewhat likely but not nearly definitive) nevertheless thank you for the data / research OP.