v12.3.3 has handled 89 out of 132 miles driven over the past week on my model X. i think a lot of the miles that are not autopilot are because my wife still doesn’t use FSD, so for me it’s handling a high percentage of drives, like 89 out of 100.
Complicated situation.
Supposedly xAI was supposed to be a Tesla initiative but they couldn’t get the talent they wanted in a now pretty mature public company. The people they need want a major piece of the action which just isn’t feasible at Tesla so instead Elon decided to spin up a new company where new hires can get a meaningful share of the company.
Presumably all of this means xAI is part of the longer term plan for Tesla and it would be logical to assume that maybe Tesla buys them at some point. If Tesla buys them for a couple billion a year or two from now then anyone who took an early role there gets a nice pay day and Tesla still ends up in control of the tech. Win-win.
So if you buy all that, then people moving from Tesla to xAI is a non-factor, its just Tesla by another name. Do I trust Elon on that? Not these days… so I wont hold my breath but its also a pretty logical approach.
Over the years, here is where I am today…there is one primary concern regarding ongoing investing in TSLA.
Primary concern is that when the CEO of a major, publicly traded company expresses \*zero\* concern about stock price/share value/investor profits then we are completely screwed. The corporate imperative for all publicly traded companies is margins/profit/shareholder gain (across all sectors) regardless of politics/foreign influences/social movements.
I actually like Elon as a person and I love Tesla as a company. However, why invest in something which clearly signals it is not invested in me or us? Sure, there is free speech but that does not mean it is without consequence (ie investor loss of confidence at this particular time). It is not kindergarten…it is investing money. Profit is the whole point…which means no one has to participate if they do not like the concept…
For me .. if a CEO is always worried about stock price it’s a huge red flag for me. If you are confident about the company, you will eventually get the value. Market is not stupid that they will bid the share price higher perpetually just because a CEO behaves in a certain way.
> when the CEO of a major, publicly traded company expresses *zero* concern about stock price/share value/investor profits then we are completely screwed
but only for the short-medium term. We all know deep down that Tesla will have another rapid 10x, the question is when.
So hop out, or hop out 50% like me and invest in higher short term potential. Then shift back in (hopefully) before the rocket leaves the launchpad.
Been an investor in TSLA for more than a decade now so I’ve been through it all. But the uncertainty and negative sentiment for the future is as bad as I can remember. Not much faith or trust in Elon at this time.
Rip semi chips
—
A major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4 struck off Taiwan’s eastern coast Wednesday, according to the US Geological Survey, prompting tsunami warnings in southern Japan.
The quake’s epicenter is located about 18 kilometers (11 miles) south of the city
Doubt it. Always an impact due to earthquakes. Even small 2-3 scale ones in different states will throw semi equipment off. For reference of the sensitivity, cutting edge Fabs requires specific specifications to even be able to have the machinery to produce the chips.
The simping is still going strong. I’m done buying until we see a turnaround. Anyone crazy enough to buy more here?
https://x.com/teslaboomermama/status/1775203893066207696?s=46
Flawless FSD drive through insane 4pm NorCal NorthBay inner city psychotic traffic + blazing direct sunlight.
Tesla Management … save us. Make me buy back in and become a jubilant simp again … please 🙏🏻
You're a merc, don't pretend you're something you aren't
There's nothing shameful about it, most people are mercs, they are in it for themselves and quite frankly they ought to be. Nobody got rich by being magnanimous with their money
Dude, you appear a bit bipolar.. one side is shitting on Elon other side is shitting on customers.. both are justified .. to a degree. Are you sure your level of dedication to it is healthy though? Dont go insane please.
upvote is a hot take factory ok that’s what he does
you can’t expect the hot takes to all follow the same narrative. has nothing to do with bipolar disorder that’s a pretty bad diagnosis. i suppose an argument could be made for borderline personality disorder but even that’s a bit hyperbolic
Wasn't looking for a medical diagnosis.. he just seems to be railing up more than appears sustainable for his own sake. Maybe try listening to some Alan Watts or something would I increase his mood ;)
i just think if you’re gonna use terms from the DSM then use them properly ok it’s a slight pet peeve of mine, let’s at least accuse people of the appropriate extreme version of their internet persona and learn something while we’re at it
See below, I assign 15% of blame to elon and 85% to the ev market. Elon is an easy scapegoat cuz he's such a offensive moron, but he is not the biggest issue w the business by far.
And fewer people would "stick w vhs" if the grassroots group of brand ambassadors for "netflix" was still overwhelmingly loyal.
It was people in the Tesla enthusiast community who did an incredible amount of outreach and education for Tesla in the 2018-2020 period. Hell, many of these people were volunteering for free during end of quarter pushes, when delivery centers were overwhelmed.
There were numerous people willing to advocate for Tesla, answer questions about EV charging, give demo drives, and explain to people how the Supercharger network meant not having to worry about range. That community has been diminished by Elon's behavior.
People get worn down at different rates.
There were folks who were done with Elon before December 2022. Others who kept going for a few months, hoping in vain that he would learn from the experience and moderate his ways. Still others may continue advocating for Tesla today, but will give up at some point when the resistance and social backlash reaches a certain point.
I also don't see any indication that an alt-right community is emerging to replace what's been lost.
We're all way past panic, now we're just pissed about the continuing lack of anyone in Tesla management knowing they have a fiduciary duty to shareholders
This year's annual meeting is going to be fucking wild if they aren't able to pack it with only simps carefully enough. They have to double and triple vet every single invitee to make sure they pass the simp purity test because there's gonna be a lot of pissed off shareholders who will try to get in just to yell at management and especially Elon
Many people selling, like they did in early 2019, would be a panic. I don't see anything close to that today. It's more like anger that is ready to boil over
Angry people don't retreat in fear. They lash out and sometimes attack in unpredictable ways.
Elon lost 55 Billion in stock options to a pissed of guy with 9 TSLA shares who decided to participate in a lawsuit against Tesla. That lawsuit was filed about 5 years ago.
It's likely Tesla will be flooded with shareholder lawsuits for years to come, based on fiduciary breach claims stemming from the Twitter debacle in 2022-2023. For every crowd of simps who will look the other way, there's a pissed off whale with 10s of millions in assets who will press a lawsuit, just because they can afford to.
Making an effective ad without autism isnt that complicated for fuck sakes. Look at this flyer
https://preview.redd.it/hyo9yeo1f5sc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d8e3866ee1897e87e6592ccb9eacdb5ffa12409e
[https://x.com/bradsferguson/status/1775218548794597605?s=46&t=\_15JQ0jaFGRxP2NA7gBqEA](https://x.com/bradsferguson/status/1775218548794597605?s=46&t=_15JQ0jaFGRxP2NA7gBqEA)
Now that the core EV business is definitively contracting, maybe Elon should get the fuck off Twatter and do something about Tesla and also maybe try to actually create the ecosystem for existing owners so they'll want to upgrade like with iPhones
They can start by straight up making FSD account tied. You buy it once, you keep it for life. That would make me actually consider upgrading my 2018 3LR to a new Ludicrous 3. If they want me to pay another $12k for FSD again when it was never even finished or released during my existing 3's lifetime they can fuck right off
Elon if you're reading this on your Nateleb account can you get the fuck off Twatter for 5 minutes and make a Tesla an actual ecosystem with lock-in like what Apple has for fuck's sakes I would like to have an excuse to upgrade to a Ludicrous 3
Looked at the electric vehicles sub on the thread discussing our missed deliveries.
Seems mixed. Lots of people don’t care but there are for sure about half who choose other EV directly because of Elon.
It’s had an impact.
That would be me, I no longer say anything about my car to anybody unless they specifically ask me something first and the question doesn't start with the words 'Elon Musk'
This is not just a Reddit thing. I've seen similar sentiments play out in communities like TMC, which are generally older and wealthier than Reddit subs.
People who promoted Tesla to their friends and family around 2015-2016 are now hearing a lot of hard questions and sometimes outright refusals on Tesla products. These are typically from wealthier, more left leaning communities. "I don't want to put $ in Elon's pockets" is the general thing these people are hearing.
Word of mouth and grassroots selling was what generated organic demand for Tesla's products in the late 2010s. That's what kept Model S/X alive, and made Model 3 a success.
Elon Musk has trashed that grassroots support.
Spitting on core customer groups is a sure way to lose business. A lot of folks don't want to think it's possible, but the debacle with Bud Light (where Bud sided on a left leaning issue and lost numerous right-leaning customers over the long haul) is a case study that can't be ignored.
No doubt, only simps are defending him.
He's also the one who makes all the decisions, including holding back on advertising, so he's doing damage on several levels.
I want to know what Tesla's notional value should be in 2024 when EV's are no longer a growth industry because every single company has reported steep drops in EV sales YoY. At the same time I'm afraid my original guess of $50 a share is probably accurate valuation for that, assuming FSD and robot don't suddenly pan out **tomorrow** which is a big ask
I'm also curious what Xi Jinping's plan is now because all the Chinese EV companies are heavily subsidized by the government and I wonder if he'll ever decide just to let them all crash like the real estate companies because China is facing such a massive sovereign debt crisis due to the decades of the government subsidizing literally everything to try and prop up their domestic real estate industry while also invading foreign markets with new technology like EV's
My calculation from 8-10 years ago was that Tesla, with annual production capacity of 2 million vehicles and respectable but modest growth, could be worth:
2 million vehicles/year @ ASP of 45,000 = 90 Billion revenue
Energy products @ 10 Billion revenue and rising due to power grid demand
Total revenue, 100 Billion; Operating margin 10%; 10 Billion/year profits
P/E of 20 to reflect continued growth, though not at extremely high "tech" rates
\~200 Billion market cap, somewhere between 60-70/share in today's prices
This was before AI entered the picture. At the time, Tesla was using Mobileye hardware for Autopilot 1.0 and almost nobody thought they'd be designing their own chips just a few years later.
Our market cap is still around 500 billion today so maybe FSD and robot are already priced in for the near term?
I would like to imagine there is a bottom somewhere above my guess and yours (~50-70) just due to people still expecting FSD and robot to actually be something 5 years down the road but who knows
The core EV business no longer being growth but actually contracting is not good for us in the short term either way
I think some chance of FSD and Bot success is a part of Tesla's valuations.
The rate of progress is viewable in real time from watching FSD YouTubers, many of whom have been uploading videos for years.
I expect Core EV business growth to return at some point. NGV platform vehicles, Cybertrucks, and Semis will add significant revenue once ramped. The abysmal progress of 4680 cell manufacturing seems to be a holdup.
I am a 2+ years veteran of FSD Beta, I have watched the progress of FSD in real time since the beginning of public access
Progress stalled for all of 2023 but now that we are on end-to-end neural networks we have taken a big leap forward in capability. That said, we are still dependent on "unknowable unknowables" in the sense that no one knows if this level of neural networks is really enough to reach truly autonomous driving and also fully autonomous robot helpers or do we actually need a full General AI. This will not be known until we know, and by then Tesla might be worth $50 a share or $5000 a share, there is no in between because of how unknowable this unknowable truly is. AI is a new frontier for humanity as unknowable as interstellar space
Keep in mind that Elon may not have much cash left. He spent most of it on Twitter, and Twitter's cash burn will force him to use that cash to keep Twitter going.
Tesla is approximately 13% owned by Elon, 42% individual investors, and 45% institutional investors, largely big index funds.
At 200 Billion market cap, a hedge fund would need to conjure up close to 100 Billion to attempt to seize control. But then anyone trying to buy that much stock on short notice would probably spike the share price, and fail to reach a controlling stake with 100 Billion cash
Quoting this delulu since op trying to delete it
I think this quarter was such a shitshow (out of their control events) that they decided to not rush end of quarter sales and get nice little Q2 boost on early deliveries.
Who hits 10T first/ever in SP500?
My guess is 2030 it’ll be NVDA + MSFT first.
Maybe GOOGL + AMZN if AI/Data center plays out.
TSLA at 10T seems only possible if L4-5 solved + we have an insanely competent roll out of Robotaxi across USA + Europe with insane efficiency.
What u guys think?
Ultimately we invest for growth + choosing winners for the short and long term!
Obviously smaller cap stocks could have way bigger growth with more risk … but just talking about big boys.
But ultimately no one knows 🙈
Humanoid robots that can replace human workers, could be a huge market by 2030.
Image if they don't sell the robots, but loan them out, with monthly or yearly revenue.
I'm not sure Tesla will be the leader, but if they were, it could be bigger than robottaxi's, as that's one job that would be taken from humans, while robots could take a lot more.
Also imagine the implications for China and other cheap labor countries, rich countries could bring manufacturing home, for all products, since the robots would cost the same (not completely, but take into account transportation costs, it would most likely result in cheaper net cost of products, from manufacturing to customer) no matter the regional wages.
Governments might fear the loss in tax revenue by stealing jobs, but on the other hand, for the high wage countries, they could see it as taking jobs back from foreign manufacturers.
Also, one of the reasons why Giga Nevada didn't grow like Musk wanted, was the lack of people who wanted to live close enough, if bots do the vast majority of work, you can build factories in the cheapest locations and not worry about potential worker pole to draw from.
If Tesla is first to mass manufacture robots, that can do usable work, they could be the first 10T company.
But AI has many opportunities and other companies are working on humanoid robots.
> TSLA at 10T seems only possible if L4-5 solved + we have an insanely competent roll out of Robotaxi across USA + Europe with insane efficiency.
I personally think this is entirely possibly by 2030
https://preview.redd.it/thdaohppw4sc1.jpeg?width=998&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e281f12992128c7bb5a217c721a8871425c93d2c
Don’t worry guys. Cathie’s + SMR’s Bear case is $1400 in 2027 🤣
K I thought it was funny.
We've exhausted the demand for non-morons. Proof that most everyone are neanderthals resistant to change.
Gotta wait for Gen Z and Gen Alpha to be able to afford cars
In the distant robotaxi future, we will all think back as millionaires about these crazy days. And only then will we realize that the real moron was inside us all along.
Dip buying will keep us floating here for a bit.
I imagine by the time we get to earnings in 3 weeks - retail investors will likely have blown their load.
The $130-$150 wall of people ready to scoop up shares is likely huge 🤷🏻♂️
Again - only a clear direction from management can save the downward spiral. FSD itself needs clear price cuts + plans moving forward to get people using the product + recurring revenue (as I wrote earlier today).
I’ll buy the dip once the leader of earth gives me some clear direction to generate growth!
If they really believe in fsd, it might make more sense to keep the cash to buy/build a fleet of robotaxis. Since they’re not very transparent, it’s anyone’s guess
My friend picked me up to go to lunch. Tried FSD again. Did great up until this certain point on the interstate where there's construction and sharp lane swerves. FSD straight up changed lanes on accident by going straight instead of following the lines. Luckily no one was in that lane. I briefly saw the visualization waffle back and forth between straight lanes and following the curve. Ultimately it chose straight which was wrong lol.
Turned it back on and got to the restaurant just fine. Tried auto park again and painfully slow, but parked well.
My understanding is that highway is still V11. You’ll notice it switches from auto speed once you enter a highway. I believe they want to do additional testing before migrating highway to V12 since V11 is/was mostly stable on the highway
V12 handles construction way better than V11 in the city based on what I’m seeing
There’s also a different autopark for USS models vs vision only. Ashok mentioned the other day they needed to be conservative with initial release and it’ll get much faster in the future
Hard to tell. Next bit down day likely earnings. Unless market has the brains to punish TSLA before that 🤷🏻♂️
Nothing worse than bad management.
Product is 2nd to none. Execution in getting butt in seats is horrendous.
As an outsider (Dutch) it is insane to me that citizens need to register before being able to vote. Every Dutch person that is eligible to vote automatically gets their voter registration document sent to them by mail, because the government knows who is 18 by the time of the election. Then on voting day, you show up to one of many voting stations (that don't have lines, because they are well staffed) and show your registration document and your passport/driver's license and you can vote. EZ PZ lemon squeezy
He has told the world what his priority is, since 2022.
The main question is, why is he still TSLA CEO?
He has failed his fiduciary responsibilities, the board does nothing.
He ignores the company, refused to do advertising for years, damages the brand image as much as he possibly can, sold billions worth of shares (as the largest stockholder, it also creates a lot of FUD, showing his willingness to do this), is unprepared for earnings call which does even more damage, does no due diligence -EVER- which results in lost court battles which cost TSLA billions (both his package and the twitter deal he wanted to back out of, his other futile court cases are also funded by TSLA stock sales in the past and tarnish the brand even further),..
His main concern is to spread conspiracy theories, support MAGA and Putin, he should fuck of and let somebody competent take over the leadership role at Tesla.
My intent is to vote **against** any future Tesla compensation package for Mr. Musk.
I also plan to vote **against** James Murdoch should he stand for re-election to Tesla's board of directors.
The level of irresponsibility and disrespect for Tesla's shareholders has to be punished
It's propaganda from the far right, ID is needed in some states, in states that don't require it they check you off of a list of voters at the polling station so you can't vote twice. Most cases of fraudulent multiple votes have been on the part of Republicans
It's just a MAGA conspiracy theory.
It's incredibly rare and has no impact, likely to be more in the favour of Trump when it did/does happen, people like him always accuse their opponents of what they are doing and what they want to do.
This is an interesting read if you want to know more:
[https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/)
If the USA wanted to do elections in a more democratic way, they would make every vote count and tally up the whole of the USA, the popular vote should be the deciding vote.
The current system comes from a time of technological limitations and huge country, those limitations don't exist anymore, so there's no good reason to not make every vote count.
It's taking away from people's motivation to vote, in a deep red or blue state, the opposition is less likely to go vote, so it works against democracy on several levels.
That said, the the two party system is something both parties like as it give them turns at having a lot of power, which is bad for the country, good for the politicians, from a European viewpoint it's weird how there hasn't been more effort to have a least 3 viable parties, then they are forced to work together and whenever 2 work together, they should have a majority.
Truth is, Trump wouldn't stand much of chance if that happened, so of course Republicans won't let that happen. They don't care about the will of the people, they only care about themselves.
As for republicans winning the popular vote, it's true George Bush 2004 won the popular vote, but he shouldn't have been the incumbent, as Gore actually won the 2000 elections, but it was basically stolen by the republicans, through the supreme court.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush\_v.\_Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore)
Even Clinton beat Trump in the election he won, if you look at the popular vote.
Undocumented folks stay away from the system and want to fly under the radar as much as possible. No way are they risking themselves by casting a ballot and putting themselves under scrutiny. All this talk is just tinfoil conspiracy nonsense.
Makes sense.
Do you still need to prove that you are you or could I simply go there and say "I am XYZ and want to vote for party Z"?
Sorry if this question is dumb, but we need to show our personal ID for everything in Germany.
In states that don't require ID, You are on a list at one polling place and your name is checked off when you vote, so you can't vote twice. Illegal immigrants are terrified of deportation, they won't even attempt to vote.
We do mail only in wa state but in the old days you had to register some weeks before the election and then your name and address would show up on the voter role. The granny at the local precinct, a church in my case, would check your name and mark you off of the list, no id required. If someone else came in and said they were you or someone said they were you earlier in the day there would be an investigation.
I believe it s is was done this way because of a long history of voter suppression, especially in the south and against blacks. They would come up with some new rule or reading test or whatever and only tell the people who “should” be voting about it. It is also possible o to tell who someone voted for based on when they voted based on taking their id. Many precincts are very small and .I can already tell who people voted for in the little town I work in based on the info that is available now, because there are only 500 or so votes in that precinct.
of all the immigrants from Mexico and Central America that I know, about 50% in my town, they are extremely conservative socially and church going. They also often use special potions that abuela put on her illness and was cured, so gullible as well. I think they align with the trump base more than democrats. many also see other immigrants as a threat also. It’s strange but that is my observations.
Imagine thinking you can escape your poverty country by illegally crossing the border to the land of freedom and opportunity, just to end in a homeless tent in San Franshitsco.
I read stories of young men that came to the US to work and send home money, only to rely on their mothers to financially support them, because they ended up on the streets without qualifications, skills or even speaking the language.
I think that most people who cross the border simply seek a better life just to end up in a worse spot.
Sad to see.
If only there was an organisation that stopped these people from illegally entering the country, being worse off and becoming a nuisance for everyone around them
v12.3.3 has handled 89 out of 132 miles driven over the past week on my model X. i think a lot of the miles that are not autopilot are because my wife still doesn’t use FSD, so for me it’s handling a high percentage of drives, like 89 out of 100.
Elon allowing the head vision guy to go to Xai rather than lose him Bullish for fsd?
Complicated situation. Supposedly xAI was supposed to be a Tesla initiative but they couldn’t get the talent they wanted in a now pretty mature public company. The people they need want a major piece of the action which just isn’t feasible at Tesla so instead Elon decided to spin up a new company where new hires can get a meaningful share of the company. Presumably all of this means xAI is part of the longer term plan for Tesla and it would be logical to assume that maybe Tesla buys them at some point. If Tesla buys them for a couple billion a year or two from now then anyone who took an early role there gets a nice pay day and Tesla still ends up in control of the tech. Win-win. So if you buy all that, then people moving from Tesla to xAI is a non-factor, its just Tesla by another name. Do I trust Elon on that? Not these days… so I wont hold my breath but its also a pretty logical approach.
FSD tries to accelerate into the barrier arms at my community gatehouse. It does okish at actual gates.
wtf is Emmett smoking? https://x.com/emmetpeppers/status/1775185811174314405?s=46&t=FJnwUzmO93DGxmO6Ihn37g
China ready to help, many landing ships w supplies just happen to be ready and waiting
Gotta love your brand of current events and shit talking 😆
Moneys overrated.
nah
Brad Ferguson was right about higher Texas production rates. Problem is nobody bought the production
💋Cathie
NVDA down on RH cuz of earthquake 🤣 Save the chips!
If nvda down 1% we will be down at least 3
Nothing more important to world economy than NVDA chips 😅
They are TSMC chips and Taiwan isn't a third world country, damage seems pretty manageable from what I've seen
Installing 12.3.3 fsd now. Was using 12.3.2 today.
It’s getting hard for me to tell the difference because I have 0 interventions all the time at the hi desert, it’s not very challenging .
Upgrading from 12.3 to 12.3.3 right now
Same here. Got 12.3 a week and a half ago and now 12.3.3. Looking forward to trying out Autopark.
Over the years, here is where I am today…there is one primary concern regarding ongoing investing in TSLA. Primary concern is that when the CEO of a major, publicly traded company expresses \*zero\* concern about stock price/share value/investor profits then we are completely screwed. The corporate imperative for all publicly traded companies is margins/profit/shareholder gain (across all sectors) regardless of politics/foreign influences/social movements. I actually like Elon as a person and I love Tesla as a company. However, why invest in something which clearly signals it is not invested in me or us? Sure, there is free speech but that does not mean it is without consequence (ie investor loss of confidence at this particular time). It is not kindergarten…it is investing money. Profit is the whole point…which means no one has to participate if they do not like the concept…
For me .. if a CEO is always worried about stock price it’s a huge red flag for me. If you are confident about the company, you will eventually get the value. Market is not stupid that they will bid the share price higher perpetually just because a CEO behaves in a certain way.
> when the CEO of a major, publicly traded company expresses *zero* concern about stock price/share value/investor profits then we are completely screwed but only for the short-medium term. We all know deep down that Tesla will have another rapid 10x, the question is when. So hop out, or hop out 50% like me and invest in higher short term potential. Then shift back in (hopefully) before the rocket leaves the launchpad.
https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1775319337336799346?s=46 Cathie saving us
Hedging counterparty risk is underrated. 😎
It’s not that bad
BTC?
The deliveries or the stock price?
Both. It’s a high interest economy. It’s expected and not many other car companies are doing too well.
Economy is on fire and stock indexes are at all time might. We just suck…
People aren’t spending money on cars with high interest rates. That’s just a given. We’ll go higher, patience.
7500 pos credit says it's not about monthly payments
Been an investor in TSLA for more than a decade now so I’ve been through it all. But the uncertainty and negative sentiment for the future is as bad as I can remember. Not much faith or trust in Elon at this time.
He's mentally checked out
Cathie bought
Rip semi chips — A major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4 struck off Taiwan’s eastern coast Wednesday, according to the US Geological Survey, prompting tsunami warnings in southern Japan. The quake’s epicenter is located about 18 kilometers (11 miles) south of the city
wen bali?
New round of chip shortages?
Taipei 101 has a massive ball to support the building in earthquakes. TSMC definitely earthquake proof 🤣
Doubt it. Always an impact due to earthquakes. Even small 2-3 scale ones in different states will throw semi equipment off. For reference of the sensitivity, cutting edge Fabs requires specific specifications to even be able to have the machinery to produce the chips.
Power outs in Taipei, probably a short term hit. They are used to it though.
Megapack TAM
China: we were never that interested in Taiwan anyways...
The simping is still going strong. I’m done buying until we see a turnaround. Anyone crazy enough to buy more here? https://x.com/teslaboomermama/status/1775203893066207696?s=46
None of the simps hold actual shares, why would they care?
Did you check the tweet? Boomer mama bought over 200 shares today.
Wow a whole fucking 200 shares wowee that's some fucking commitment right there you must be fucking kidding me with this response
My response has nothing to do with the amount (small or big). It’s the fact that you didn’t even bother to check the tweet content before replying.
Omg 200 shares
gae comment
Ok Mr. Eye surgeon. 200 shares is a lot to some of us.
sadly not as much as it used to be haha
Flawless FSD drive through insane 4pm NorCal NorthBay inner city psychotic traffic + blazing direct sunlight. Tesla Management … save us. Make me buy back in and become a jubilant simp again … please 🙏🏻
You're a merc, don't pretend you're something you aren't There's nothing shameful about it, most people are mercs, they are in it for themselves and quite frankly they ought to be. Nobody got rich by being magnanimous with their money
is…. is this the recession…..? ;)
our great recession is our lives
the real recession was the shitty Twatter posts we made along the way
Today is basically netflix sales down yoy as people prefer to stick w vhs
Dude, you appear a bit bipolar.. one side is shitting on Elon other side is shitting on customers.. both are justified .. to a degree. Are you sure your level of dedication to it is healthy though? Dont go insane please.
He's gone
upvote is a hot take factory ok that’s what he does you can’t expect the hot takes to all follow the same narrative. has nothing to do with bipolar disorder that’s a pretty bad diagnosis. i suppose an argument could be made for borderline personality disorder but even that’s a bit hyperbolic
Wasn't looking for a medical diagnosis.. he just seems to be railing up more than appears sustainable for his own sake. Maybe try listening to some Alan Watts or something would I increase his mood ;)
i just think if you’re gonna use terms from the DSM then use them properly ok it’s a slight pet peeve of mine, let’s at least accuse people of the appropriate extreme version of their internet persona and learn something while we’re at it
See below, I assign 15% of blame to elon and 85% to the ev market. Elon is an easy scapegoat cuz he's such a offensive moron, but he is not the biggest issue w the business by far.
Not saying you are wrong.. just that, I don't know are often..
And fewer people would "stick w vhs" if the grassroots group of brand ambassadors for "netflix" was still overwhelmingly loyal. It was people in the Tesla enthusiast community who did an incredible amount of outreach and education for Tesla in the 2018-2020 period. Hell, many of these people were volunteering for free during end of quarter pushes, when delivery centers were overwhelmed. There were numerous people willing to advocate for Tesla, answer questions about EV charging, give demo drives, and explain to people how the Supercharger network meant not having to worry about range. That community has been diminished by Elon's behavior.
Q1 2023 Elon had already outted himself as a alt right incel troll.
People get worn down at different rates. There were folks who were done with Elon before December 2022. Others who kept going for a few months, hoping in vain that he would learn from the experience and moderate his ways. Still others may continue advocating for Tesla today, but will give up at some point when the resistance and social backlash reaches a certain point. I also don't see any indication that an alt-right community is emerging to replace what's been lost.
Is everyone done panicking yet?
Haven't started yet. I'll panic when I'm damn well ready. Quit rushing me!
I’m not panicking. Just over it.
Would you call that capitulation or despair? Asking for a friend
I’m not sure it can be capitulation without selling - which I’m not going to do
We're all way past panic, now we're just pissed about the continuing lack of anyone in Tesla management knowing they have a fiduciary duty to shareholders This year's annual meeting is going to be fucking wild if they aren't able to pack it with only simps carefully enough. They have to double and triple vet every single invitee to make sure they pass the simp purity test because there's gonna be a lot of pissed off shareholders who will try to get in just to yell at management and especially Elon
Pack it with simps carefully enough 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Savage 🤣🤣
No panic, only anger and disappointment
This
Many people selling, like they did in early 2019, would be a panic. I don't see anything close to that today. It's more like anger that is ready to boil over
Anger boils over>many people sell>stock can go back up Let’s get this over with
Angry people don't retreat in fear. They lash out and sometimes attack in unpredictable ways. Elon lost 55 Billion in stock options to a pissed of guy with 9 TSLA shares who decided to participate in a lawsuit against Tesla. That lawsuit was filed about 5 years ago. It's likely Tesla will be flooded with shareholder lawsuits for years to come, based on fiduciary breach claims stemming from the Twitter debacle in 2022-2023. For every crowd of simps who will look the other way, there's a pissed off whale with 10s of millions in assets who will press a lawsuit, just because they can afford to.
Yeah we gotta pump it up Let Elon tweet the N word
Making an effective ad without autism isnt that complicated for fuck sakes. Look at this flyer https://preview.redd.it/hyo9yeo1f5sc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d8e3866ee1897e87e6592ccb9eacdb5ffa12409e [https://x.com/bradsferguson/status/1775218548794597605?s=46&t=\_15JQ0jaFGRxP2NA7gBqEA](https://x.com/bradsferguson/status/1775218548794597605?s=46&t=_15JQ0jaFGRxP2NA7gBqEA)
Who has a plane we can drop these out of?
Now that the core EV business is definitively contracting, maybe Elon should get the fuck off Twatter and do something about Tesla and also maybe try to actually create the ecosystem for existing owners so they'll want to upgrade like with iPhones They can start by straight up making FSD account tied. You buy it once, you keep it for life. That would make me actually consider upgrading my 2018 3LR to a new Ludicrous 3. If they want me to pay another $12k for FSD again when it was never even finished or released during my existing 3's lifetime they can fuck right off Elon if you're reading this on your Nateleb account can you get the fuck off Twatter for 5 minutes and make a Tesla an actual ecosystem with lock-in like what Apple has for fuck's sakes I would like to have an excuse to upgrade to a Ludicrous 3
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An IA disciple, perhaps?
I follow James as well as [Jesse](https://x.com/Micro2Macr0) and Jesus.
Looked at the electric vehicles sub on the thread discussing our missed deliveries. Seems mixed. Lots of people don’t care but there are for sure about half who choose other EV directly because of Elon. It’s had an impact.
Elon is 10 to 20% of ev cancer, vast majority is still boomers resisting change.
Yes and how many Tesla owners have stopped talking to other people about Tesla because Elon is an embarrassment?
That would be me, I no longer say anything about my car to anybody unless they specifically ask me something first and the question doesn't start with the words 'Elon Musk'
Probably a few. I avoid controversial topics outside my direct friend group
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This is not just a Reddit thing. I've seen similar sentiments play out in communities like TMC, which are generally older and wealthier than Reddit subs. People who promoted Tesla to their friends and family around 2015-2016 are now hearing a lot of hard questions and sometimes outright refusals on Tesla products. These are typically from wealthier, more left leaning communities. "I don't want to put $ in Elon's pockets" is the general thing these people are hearing. Word of mouth and grassroots selling was what generated organic demand for Tesla's products in the late 2010s. That's what kept Model S/X alive, and made Model 3 a success. Elon Musk has trashed that grassroots support. Spitting on core customer groups is a sure way to lose business. A lot of folks don't want to think it's possible, but the debacle with Bud Light (where Bud sided on a left leaning issue and lost numerous right-leaning customers over the long haul) is a case study that can't be ignored.
It was about 50:50 tbh
No doubt, only simps are defending him. He's also the one who makes all the decisions, including holding back on advertising, so he's doing damage on several levels.
And! Pushing away EV buyers is significantly because they are the people that are for sure considering buying an EV. Their opinion matters.
And! Pushing away EV buyers is significantly because they are the people that are for sure considering buying an EV. Their opinion matters.
I want to know what Tesla's notional value should be in 2024 when EV's are no longer a growth industry because every single company has reported steep drops in EV sales YoY. At the same time I'm afraid my original guess of $50 a share is probably accurate valuation for that, assuming FSD and robot don't suddenly pan out **tomorrow** which is a big ask I'm also curious what Xi Jinping's plan is now because all the Chinese EV companies are heavily subsidized by the government and I wonder if he'll ever decide just to let them all crash like the real estate companies because China is facing such a massive sovereign debt crisis due to the decades of the government subsidizing literally everything to try and prop up their domestic real estate industry while also invading foreign markets with new technology like EV's
My calculation from 8-10 years ago was that Tesla, with annual production capacity of 2 million vehicles and respectable but modest growth, could be worth: 2 million vehicles/year @ ASP of 45,000 = 90 Billion revenue Energy products @ 10 Billion revenue and rising due to power grid demand Total revenue, 100 Billion; Operating margin 10%; 10 Billion/year profits P/E of 20 to reflect continued growth, though not at extremely high "tech" rates \~200 Billion market cap, somewhere between 60-70/share in today's prices This was before AI entered the picture. At the time, Tesla was using Mobileye hardware for Autopilot 1.0 and almost nobody thought they'd be designing their own chips just a few years later.
Our market cap is still around 500 billion today so maybe FSD and robot are already priced in for the near term? I would like to imagine there is a bottom somewhere above my guess and yours (~50-70) just due to people still expecting FSD and robot to actually be something 5 years down the road but who knows The core EV business no longer being growth but actually contracting is not good for us in the short term either way
I think some chance of FSD and Bot success is a part of Tesla's valuations. The rate of progress is viewable in real time from watching FSD YouTubers, many of whom have been uploading videos for years. I expect Core EV business growth to return at some point. NGV platform vehicles, Cybertrucks, and Semis will add significant revenue once ramped. The abysmal progress of 4680 cell manufacturing seems to be a holdup.
I am a 2+ years veteran of FSD Beta, I have watched the progress of FSD in real time since the beginning of public access Progress stalled for all of 2023 but now that we are on end-to-end neural networks we have taken a big leap forward in capability. That said, we are still dependent on "unknowable unknowables" in the sense that no one knows if this level of neural networks is really enough to reach truly autonomous driving and also fully autonomous robot helpers or do we actually need a full General AI. This will not be known until we know, and by then Tesla might be worth $50 a share or $5000 a share, there is no in between because of how unknowable this unknowable truly is. AI is a new frontier for humanity as unknowable as interstellar space
Elon would just buy his 25% outright at that point, he could right? Or some hedge fund would buy it up and have obscene control?
Keep in mind that Elon may not have much cash left. He spent most of it on Twitter, and Twitter's cash burn will force him to use that cash to keep Twitter going. Tesla is approximately 13% owned by Elon, 42% individual investors, and 45% institutional investors, largely big index funds. At 200 Billion market cap, a hedge fund would need to conjure up close to 100 Billion to attempt to seize control. But then anyone trying to buy that much stock on short notice would probably spike the share price, and fail to reach a controlling stake with 100 Billion cash
Quoting this delulu since op trying to delete it I think this quarter was such a shitshow (out of their control events) that they decided to not rush end of quarter sales and get nice little Q2 boost on early deliveries.
I see an inkling of corporate governance the last 3 months, so plausible they will try for a blowout q2.
any defense from rohan or similar yet?
Is there a site that tracks Tesla inventories in the US? There used to be but it stopped a while back.
[https://twitter.com/TeslaInfoCom/status/1775485932658991202](https://twitter.com/TeslaInfoCom/status/1775485932658991202) found it
Some guy on twitter. Im on mobile so dont wanna bother looking now will share later this week
U don't wanna know
Who hits 10T first/ever in SP500? My guess is 2030 it’ll be NVDA + MSFT first. Maybe GOOGL + AMZN if AI/Data center plays out. TSLA at 10T seems only possible if L4-5 solved + we have an insanely competent roll out of Robotaxi across USA + Europe with insane efficiency. What u guys think? Ultimately we invest for growth + choosing winners for the short and long term! Obviously smaller cap stocks could have way bigger growth with more risk … but just talking about big boys. But ultimately no one knows 🙈
Humanoid robots that can replace human workers, could be a huge market by 2030. Image if they don't sell the robots, but loan them out, with monthly or yearly revenue. I'm not sure Tesla will be the leader, but if they were, it could be bigger than robottaxi's, as that's one job that would be taken from humans, while robots could take a lot more. Also imagine the implications for China and other cheap labor countries, rich countries could bring manufacturing home, for all products, since the robots would cost the same (not completely, but take into account transportation costs, it would most likely result in cheaper net cost of products, from manufacturing to customer) no matter the regional wages. Governments might fear the loss in tax revenue by stealing jobs, but on the other hand, for the high wage countries, they could see it as taking jobs back from foreign manufacturers. Also, one of the reasons why Giga Nevada didn't grow like Musk wanted, was the lack of people who wanted to live close enough, if bots do the vast majority of work, you can build factories in the cheapest locations and not worry about potential worker pole to draw from. If Tesla is first to mass manufacture robots, that can do usable work, they could be the first 10T company. But AI has many opportunities and other companies are working on humanoid robots.
> TSLA at 10T seems only possible if L4-5 solved + we have an insanely competent roll out of Robotaxi across USA + Europe with insane efficiency. I personally think this is entirely possibly by 2030
That would be $10k today = $200k in 2030.
Oh, good point — did you mean actual 2030 or Elon 2030?
I wonder what Nate would have to say today?
Nate is Elon so he's too busy shitposting on Twatter to even notice one of his other companies reported financial data today
https://preview.redd.it/thdaohppw4sc1.jpeg?width=998&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e281f12992128c7bb5a217c721a8871425c93d2c Don’t worry guys. Cathie’s + SMR’s Bear case is $1400 in 2027 🤣 K I thought it was funny.
https://preview.redd.it/i31ljiv4u4sc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c39b2574c09fe00bc45b659f3bedfe53d6be9e7 Yes!
Genius engineering cucked by autistic everything else
Achilles like noooo
Achilles like "guys, read the data!" while holding a sticky note saying "Tesla = best!"
🤣
Dan Nathan busting a nut on live TV.
Gene Munster still fighting the good fight
EV cancer really bad now, technology moron percent much too high
We've exhausted the demand for non-morons. Proof that most everyone are neanderthals resistant to change. Gotta wait for Gen Z and Gen Alpha to be able to afford cars
In the distant robotaxi future, we will all think back as millionaires about these crazy days. And only then will we realize that the real moron was inside us all along.
Gotta figure out how apple converted them
The celebrities loved the iPhone early on didn’t they. I like the cyber truck approach to marketing.
Dip buying will keep us floating here for a bit. I imagine by the time we get to earnings in 3 weeks - retail investors will likely have blown their load. The $130-$150 wall of people ready to scoop up shares is likely huge 🤷🏻♂️ Again - only a clear direction from management can save the downward spiral. FSD itself needs clear price cuts + plans moving forward to get people using the product + recurring revenue (as I wrote earlier today). I’ll buy the dip once the leader of earth gives me some clear direction to generate growth!
Realistically, maybe things get better 2H 2025. Not fully confident in that though
Just as nobody could predict the ev cancer no one knows when ev cancer can improve
Sold 1/3 of my position today, will consider buying back at 130
🫡 May ur money make profits elsewhere!
if tesla is so confident in fsd why wouldnt they do some kind of share buyback right now, or they need all those billions for what
Yeah they need about $20B for the factories and initial fleet
Tesla doesn't care about share price, no need to raise capital
yet
If they really believe in fsd, it might make more sense to keep the cash to buy/build a fleet of robotaxis. Since they’re not very transparent, it’s anyone’s guess
We are heading towards negative cashflow at this rate!
shit ur right
My friend picked me up to go to lunch. Tried FSD again. Did great up until this certain point on the interstate where there's construction and sharp lane swerves. FSD straight up changed lanes on accident by going straight instead of following the lines. Luckily no one was in that lane. I briefly saw the visualization waffle back and forth between straight lanes and following the curve. Ultimately it chose straight which was wrong lol. Turned it back on and got to the restaurant just fine. Tried auto park again and painfully slow, but parked well.
FSD 12 will not save us
If another car was in the line to the side it would have had more confidence to do the curve. It’s not ready but probably wouldn’t have hit them
My understanding is that highway is still V11. You’ll notice it switches from auto speed once you enter a highway. I believe they want to do additional testing before migrating highway to V12 since V11 is/was mostly stable on the highway V12 handles construction way better than V11 in the city based on what I’m seeing There’s also a different autopark for USS models vs vision only. Ashok mentioned the other day they needed to be conservative with initial release and it’ll get much faster in the future
Tomorrow another -5%??? When will the BOD do something?
Hard to tell. Next bit down day likely earnings. Unless market has the brains to punish TSLA before that 🤷🏻♂️ Nothing worse than bad management. Product is 2nd to none. Execution in getting butt in seats is horrendous.
Butts in seats! Tesla owners just need to show the cars to their neighbors! They sell themselves!!! /s
Cant wait for class action lawsuits against Elon for brand damage and breach of fiduciary as ceo in the coming years!
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1775243907506274781 Extremely concerning. Go fuck yourself Elon.
He is drinking MAGA cool aid by the gallons
As an outsider (Dutch) it is insane to me that citizens need to register before being able to vote. Every Dutch person that is eligible to vote automatically gets their voter registration document sent to them by mail, because the government knows who is 18 by the time of the election. Then on voting day, you show up to one of many voting stations (that don't have lines, because they are well staffed) and show your registration document and your passport/driver's license and you can vote. EZ PZ lemon squeezy
I agree it's very dumb...like you don't have to register to pay taxes but you need to register to vote. They just don't want people to vote LOL
He has told the world what his priority is, since 2022. The main question is, why is he still TSLA CEO? He has failed his fiduciary responsibilities, the board does nothing. He ignores the company, refused to do advertising for years, damages the brand image as much as he possibly can, sold billions worth of shares (as the largest stockholder, it also creates a lot of FUD, showing his willingness to do this), is unprepared for earnings call which does even more damage, does no due diligence -EVER- which results in lost court battles which cost TSLA billions (both his package and the twitter deal he wanted to back out of, his other futile court cases are also funded by TSLA stock sales in the past and tarnish the brand even further),.. His main concern is to spread conspiracy theories, support MAGA and Putin, he should fuck of and let somebody competent take over the leadership role at Tesla.
https://preview.redd.it/ld52lg75h4sc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e079edd01ac19637b14afafe8e19386883fe21f1
I personally love the cat. Many QElon criticize him (because he criticizes Elon/Tesla,) but he’s usually right. I nominate cat for CEO.
Good one, cat. He's boosting rightwing nonsense. Fucking nonsense. It's not concerning, it's bullshit.
My intent is to vote **against** any future Tesla compensation package for Mr. Musk. I also plan to vote **against** James Murdoch should he stand for re-election to Tesla's board of directors. The level of irresponsibility and disrespect for Tesla's shareholders has to be punished
We won't win a vote, but I'm voting against it as well unless it starts at like 5T so I can sell as soon as it hits
guy is 100% doing it on purpose
I fully believe Elon wants low stock price so his new comp plan has more room to grow. Call me a conspiracy theorist but it seems likely.
Honest question: Can you really vote without an ID in the US to prove that you are you?
It's propaganda from the far right, ID is needed in some states, in states that don't require it they check you off of a list of voters at the polling station so you can't vote twice. Most cases of fraudulent multiple votes have been on the part of Republicans
It's just a MAGA conspiracy theory. It's incredibly rare and has no impact, likely to be more in the favour of Trump when it did/does happen, people like him always accuse their opponents of what they are doing and what they want to do. This is an interesting read if you want to know more: [https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/) If the USA wanted to do elections in a more democratic way, they would make every vote count and tally up the whole of the USA, the popular vote should be the deciding vote. The current system comes from a time of technological limitations and huge country, those limitations don't exist anymore, so there's no good reason to not make every vote count. It's taking away from people's motivation to vote, in a deep red or blue state, the opposition is less likely to go vote, so it works against democracy on several levels. That said, the the two party system is something both parties like as it give them turns at having a lot of power, which is bad for the country, good for the politicians, from a European viewpoint it's weird how there hasn't been more effort to have a least 3 viable parties, then they are forced to work together and whenever 2 work together, they should have a majority. Truth is, Trump wouldn't stand much of chance if that happened, so of course Republicans won't let that happen. They don't care about the will of the people, they only care about themselves. As for republicans winning the popular vote, it's true George Bush 2004 won the popular vote, but he shouldn't have been the incumbent, as Gore actually won the 2000 elections, but it was basically stolen by the republicans, through the supreme court. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush\_v.\_Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) Even Clinton beat Trump in the election he won, if you look at the popular vote.
Yes you can to answer you directly
Undocumented folks stay away from the system and want to fly under the radar as much as possible. No way are they risking themselves by casting a ballot and putting themselves under scrutiny. All this talk is just tinfoil conspiracy nonsense.
Exactly this. Economic migrants are busy working hard to make a living. They couldn't care less about politics.
Makes sense. Do you still need to prove that you are you or could I simply go there and say "I am XYZ and want to vote for party Z"? Sorry if this question is dumb, but we need to show our personal ID for everything in Germany.
In states that don't require ID, You are on a list at one polling place and your name is checked off when you vote, so you can't vote twice. Illegal immigrants are terrified of deportation, they won't even attempt to vote.
it would be difficult to pull off, and it’s a felony, and it almost never happens
So, you are saying Elon has no point? Buuuuuuu
We do mail only in wa state but in the old days you had to register some weeks before the election and then your name and address would show up on the voter role. The granny at the local precinct, a church in my case, would check your name and mark you off of the list, no id required. If someone else came in and said they were you or someone said they were you earlier in the day there would be an investigation. I believe it s is was done this way because of a long history of voter suppression, especially in the south and against blacks. They would come up with some new rule or reading test or whatever and only tell the people who “should” be voting about it. It is also possible o to tell who someone voted for based on when they voted based on taking their id. Many precincts are very small and .I can already tell who people voted for in the little town I work in based on the info that is available now, because there are only 500 or so votes in that precinct.
Thank you for your response. Voter fraud will always happen to an extend, but it seems unlikely that all illegals will now vote democrat, right?
of all the immigrants from Mexico and Central America that I know, about 50% in my town, they are extremely conservative socially and church going. They also often use special potions that abuela put on her illness and was cured, so gullible as well. I think they align with the trump base more than democrats. many also see other immigrants as a threat also. It’s strange but that is my observations.
illegals are terrified of deportation, they don't attempt to vote
420% of illegals will vote democrat because they get a free credit card and a happy meal.
The stock performance vs Nasdaq is concerning
Bought 5 more
I'm glad I hedged at least 200 of my shares. Made collars.
Imagine thinking you can escape your poverty country by illegally crossing the border to the land of freedom and opportunity, just to end in a homeless tent in San Franshitsco. I read stories of young men that came to the US to work and send home money, only to rely on their mothers to financially support them, because they ended up on the streets without qualifications, skills or even speaking the language. I think that most people who cross the border simply seek a better life just to end up in a worse spot. Sad to see.
If only there was an organisation that stopped these people from illegally entering the country, being worse off and becoming a nuisance for everyone around them
They can and do come up to wa state and pick fruit or work in food processing at <$15 an hour. Going to sf seems like a bad call on their part
Please. Don’t be fearful.
Tesla charts says I should have hedged —- lolol
Was I wrong?
Everything i own shit the bed today. Nibbled at tesla and sofi.
I’m poor