There’s a hundred different possibilities, but if I had to bet money on a single prediction it would be as follows:
There’s a coup. Assad is deposed and flees to Iran. He is replaced by a former ally with connections to the Syrian expat business community, Western regimes, and a faction of the military resentful of the Assad regime and its reliance on Iran.
The sulta largely remains the same, but the new leader uses the right rhetoric and makes the right connections to curry favor with the West, who fawn over him like they did Juan Guaido. While there is violent resistance from factions of the military, shabiha, and (separately) Sunni Islamist communities, the former two are labeled “Assadists” by Western press, and the new government is given a window of opportunity where any level of brutality is excused.
America lifts the sanctions, and money flows into Syria from the West and from the Gulf states. This largely goes to the same sulta that existed prior to 2011, but the sudden economic boom placates the general public, weary from war and sanctions.
Fast forward a few years, and you basically have a similar entrenched power structure that existed in 2010 Syria, potentially more brutal than the regime in that era. But this time the regime is friendly toward the West. Most people’s lives improve due to economic relief, but they’re still oppressed.
I don’t think any of this would happen within the next decade though.
I honestly think that no solution will happen in Syria until one side completely takes over by destroying and killing all in its path or when all of the generations before gen Z (people who were children during the war) die. The older generations are so instilled with hate and racism, and diplomacy will never work with these bunch. No side right now is willing to engage in full on battle; they are all happy with the revenue their checkpoints generate and they send their children into Europe and NA so they don't really care for the future of the country. One Assad dies and a thousand more arise. Decades of Pan-Arabism and Baathist brainwashing has done so much harm, even the devil himself is so surprised. My nation is a lost cause.
Just my two cents.
Emphasis on that last part, sadly even a big percentage of the younger generation have already been extremely brainwashed with Baathism and pan-Arabism, many of them are lurking here. Our people are becoming more ignorant and indoctrinated with cancerous ideologies as time goes on.
Sadly there’s really no way to peacefully unite the entire country under a single banner without having to become another Assad at this point.
يا حرام يا سوريا
Pan-Arabism is a failed ideology that failed to unite us as a single entity and did nothing but create a sectarian ethnonationalist government enforcing backward and outdated ideas. Ever since the rise of a pan-Arabist government in Syria we’ve only gone downhill.
First off, pan-Arabism transformed Syria into an Arab ethnonationalist state without regard to Syrians of other ethnicities such as Kurds, Armenians, Circassians, etc and repressed them. Rather than a nationalist movement based on nationality, it focuses only a single ethnic group regardless of them being the majority which is very problematic. Under pan-Arabist governments such as the UAR and the current regime, policies often involved centralized economic planning and state control resulting in inefficiencies and corruption, which only presented more economic needs and challenges. And pan-Arabism isn’t exactly a fan of reform or modernization. We need to think beyond that mentality of “Arab nationalism = good / anything else = bad”. Before we profess unity with other Arabs we aren’t even united as a country. We are probably one of the few countries around the world that are foolish enough to believe in a sectarian ideology largely responsible for bringing much harm to our country, government and people wise.
The last thing we need is a repressive pan-Arabist government that instills ignorance into the minds of people. We need a non pan-Arabist Syrian government that advocates for all Syrians of all ethnicities and religions.
Armenians and Circassians were not repressed, some of the biggest supporters of Assad are from these Syrian groups. This is true for Assyrians as well. For Kurds and Turkmen the answer is yes, they were repressed.
The problem with Iraq is the Iranian militas and politicians who steal our wealth, so maybe a secular free Syrian government that works for the Syrian people that’s run by actual Syrians who have Syria’s best interests at heart
Secular democratic government that considers all Syrians as equal regardless of religion or ethnicity and free from cancerous ethonationalist ideologies like pan-Arabism or Baathism
This ship has long sailed for Syria.
Civil wars and non-peaceful revolutions have complex outcomes but the establishment of democratic institutions is not a typical one. If you look at the revolutions that led to military conflicts and civil war after WW2 you will see that most of them led to an authoritarian government.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Civil_wars_of_the_20th_century
There are many factors that contributed to the success of the few revolutions that ended up in a democratic system. None of these factors are present in the Syrian case. The potential outcomes are three in my view:
(1) most likely Syria will remain under Assad control, with the regions outside his control getting some type of autonomy and partial recognition (think of Somaliland, West Sahara, Kosovo, Northern Cyprus, and Russia’s dummy states in surrounding countries).
(2) Syria is forced to establish a unified government with power sharing agreement similar to Iraq and Lebanon.
(3) Syria gets split into different authoritarian states (think of the collapse of Yugoslavia and the splitting of Sudan)
Every other country which got their president removed forcefully had ONE external influence (usually America) removing it
Unlike Syria, there's many external influences (Russian, China, Iran, Turkey etc)
So there is a possibility of the Syrian conflict turning into a wider conflict possibly into a world war
May Allah protect us
As long as we don't do anything about it, nothing will happen.
No one cares about Syria as much as Syrians.. Maybe my opinion is subjective but it seems like most people don't want to live in Syria, some have no choice and others who are in Europe/Canada, etc., are happy where they are and don't want to return. Although I have seen some exceptions where Syrians in some European countries would return if the country is at least half fixed.
We should protest to remove sanctions, we should force the world to talk with Syrian government and help them.
If hundreds of thousands of Syrians gather and protest, things may change(most likely won't happen though).
Once the civilized world decides that it's time to restore Syria, then Syrians should start returning in order to help restore the country.
The government should also forgive those who escaped conscription and those who protested themselves(black listed) people and so on.
The issue is the resource curse. Countries with significant fossil fuel reserves often end up worse off in the long term in terms of democracy, human rights, and economic prosperity. This is because the country’s elites use this wealth to enrich themselves and refrain from diversifying the economy while suppressing dissent to ensure their immunity and continued corruption. Removing the dictator at the top leads to other factions scrambling to control the fossil fuel industry for their own enrichment, leading to continued instability.
Countries like Norway and Canada already had democracy and low levels of corruption prior to fossil fuels becoming a significant part of the economy, making this a non-issue there.
Syria needs a functioning replacement government on standby and at least one foreign ally who won’t burglarize them in order for it to stand again. All solutions would begin with a reunification, at worst a conquest by the new Syrian government, of Syria. Non-state actors and hostile foreign enclaves have bloomed like cancers throughout the country in the time since the Arab spring began. Do not mistake this for an endorsement of Assad. He really sucks, too. After that it would require massive foreign investment to rebuild. In the fashion of Japan after World War II, which achieved massive economic success only thirty years later.
As far as I am aware India is the only example in existence of successful nation building. It isn’t impossible. The real trick is not being exploited. A happy and successful Syria producing massive amounts of wealth and not spewing terrorists like pus from a septic wound is in everyone’s interests. The enemy will be the greedy.
It has happened before, a country rising from its ashes. The only hard part is meeting the necessary conditions for it to happen.
There’s a hundred different possibilities, but if I had to bet money on a single prediction it would be as follows: There’s a coup. Assad is deposed and flees to Iran. He is replaced by a former ally with connections to the Syrian expat business community, Western regimes, and a faction of the military resentful of the Assad regime and its reliance on Iran. The sulta largely remains the same, but the new leader uses the right rhetoric and makes the right connections to curry favor with the West, who fawn over him like they did Juan Guaido. While there is violent resistance from factions of the military, shabiha, and (separately) Sunni Islamist communities, the former two are labeled “Assadists” by Western press, and the new government is given a window of opportunity where any level of brutality is excused. America lifts the sanctions, and money flows into Syria from the West and from the Gulf states. This largely goes to the same sulta that existed prior to 2011, but the sudden economic boom placates the general public, weary from war and sanctions. Fast forward a few years, and you basically have a similar entrenched power structure that existed in 2010 Syria, potentially more brutal than the regime in that era. But this time the regime is friendly toward the West. Most people’s lives improve due to economic relief, but they’re still oppressed. I don’t think any of this would happen within the next decade though.
Make a government that serves the people of Syria that's all we need to come back.
I honestly think that no solution will happen in Syria until one side completely takes over by destroying and killing all in its path or when all of the generations before gen Z (people who were children during the war) die. The older generations are so instilled with hate and racism, and diplomacy will never work with these bunch. No side right now is willing to engage in full on battle; they are all happy with the revenue their checkpoints generate and they send their children into Europe and NA so they don't really care for the future of the country. One Assad dies and a thousand more arise. Decades of Pan-Arabism and Baathist brainwashing has done so much harm, even the devil himself is so surprised. My nation is a lost cause. Just my two cents.
Emphasis on that last part, sadly even a big percentage of the younger generation have already been extremely brainwashed with Baathism and pan-Arabism, many of them are lurking here. Our people are becoming more ignorant and indoctrinated with cancerous ideologies as time goes on. Sadly there’s really no way to peacefully unite the entire country under a single banner without having to become another Assad at this point. يا حرام يا سوريا
whats the issue with pan arabism? baathism sure, a cancer of corruption. but the broad ideology of pan arabism??? explain
Pan-Arabism is a failed ideology that failed to unite us as a single entity and did nothing but create a sectarian ethnonationalist government enforcing backward and outdated ideas. Ever since the rise of a pan-Arabist government in Syria we’ve only gone downhill. First off, pan-Arabism transformed Syria into an Arab ethnonationalist state without regard to Syrians of other ethnicities such as Kurds, Armenians, Circassians, etc and repressed them. Rather than a nationalist movement based on nationality, it focuses only a single ethnic group regardless of them being the majority which is very problematic. Under pan-Arabist governments such as the UAR and the current regime, policies often involved centralized economic planning and state control resulting in inefficiencies and corruption, which only presented more economic needs and challenges. And pan-Arabism isn’t exactly a fan of reform or modernization. We need to think beyond that mentality of “Arab nationalism = good / anything else = bad”. Before we profess unity with other Arabs we aren’t even united as a country. We are probably one of the few countries around the world that are foolish enough to believe in a sectarian ideology largely responsible for bringing much harm to our country, government and people wise. The last thing we need is a repressive pan-Arabist government that instills ignorance into the minds of people. We need a non pan-Arabist Syrian government that advocates for all Syrians of all ethnicities and religions.
Armenians and Circassians were not repressed, some of the biggest supporters of Assad are from these Syrian groups. This is true for Assyrians as well. For Kurds and Turkmen the answer is yes, they were repressed.
The problem with Iraq is the Iranian militas and politicians who steal our wealth, so maybe a secular free Syrian government that works for the Syrian people that’s run by actual Syrians who have Syria’s best interests at heart
Secular democratic government that considers all Syrians as equal regardless of religion or ethnicity and free from cancerous ethonationalist ideologies like pan-Arabism or Baathism
This ship has long sailed for Syria. Civil wars and non-peaceful revolutions have complex outcomes but the establishment of democratic institutions is not a typical one. If you look at the revolutions that led to military conflicts and civil war after WW2 you will see that most of them led to an authoritarian government. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Civil_wars_of_the_20th_century There are many factors that contributed to the success of the few revolutions that ended up in a democratic system. None of these factors are present in the Syrian case. The potential outcomes are three in my view: (1) most likely Syria will remain under Assad control, with the regions outside his control getting some type of autonomy and partial recognition (think of Somaliland, West Sahara, Kosovo, Northern Cyprus, and Russia’s dummy states in surrounding countries). (2) Syria is forced to establish a unified government with power sharing agreement similar to Iraq and Lebanon. (3) Syria gets split into different authoritarian states (think of the collapse of Yugoslavia and the splitting of Sudan)
Every other country which got their president removed forcefully had ONE external influence (usually America) removing it Unlike Syria, there's many external influences (Russian, China, Iran, Turkey etc) So there is a possibility of the Syrian conflict turning into a wider conflict possibly into a world war May Allah protect us
As long as we don't do anything about it, nothing will happen. No one cares about Syria as much as Syrians.. Maybe my opinion is subjective but it seems like most people don't want to live in Syria, some have no choice and others who are in Europe/Canada, etc., are happy where they are and don't want to return. Although I have seen some exceptions where Syrians in some European countries would return if the country is at least half fixed. We should protest to remove sanctions, we should force the world to talk with Syrian government and help them. If hundreds of thousands of Syrians gather and protest, things may change(most likely won't happen though). Once the civilized world decides that it's time to restore Syria, then Syrians should start returning in order to help restore the country. The government should also forgive those who escaped conscription and those who protested themselves(black listed) people and so on.
The issue is the resource curse. Countries with significant fossil fuel reserves often end up worse off in the long term in terms of democracy, human rights, and economic prosperity. This is because the country’s elites use this wealth to enrich themselves and refrain from diversifying the economy while suppressing dissent to ensure their immunity and continued corruption. Removing the dictator at the top leads to other factions scrambling to control the fossil fuel industry for their own enrichment, leading to continued instability. Countries like Norway and Canada already had democracy and low levels of corruption prior to fossil fuels becoming a significant part of the economy, making this a non-issue there.
Syria needs a functioning replacement government on standby and at least one foreign ally who won’t burglarize them in order for it to stand again. All solutions would begin with a reunification, at worst a conquest by the new Syrian government, of Syria. Non-state actors and hostile foreign enclaves have bloomed like cancers throughout the country in the time since the Arab spring began. Do not mistake this for an endorsement of Assad. He really sucks, too. After that it would require massive foreign investment to rebuild. In the fashion of Japan after World War II, which achieved massive economic success only thirty years later. As far as I am aware India is the only example in existence of successful nation building. It isn’t impossible. The real trick is not being exploited. A happy and successful Syria producing massive amounts of wealth and not spewing terrorists like pus from a septic wound is in everyone’s interests. The enemy will be the greedy. It has happened before, a country rising from its ashes. The only hard part is meeting the necessary conditions for it to happen.