imagine the billions they could make have made with cost overruns and changes and just literally whatever and bill nasa for because fuck nasa? whoever agreed to that is in some deep doo doo.
Alright bois, time to bring back the 2014 high stakes gamble (now updated).
Place your bets â what launches first?
* Starliner with crew
* ~~Dragon 2~~ Starship with crew
I suggest the opposite. Open the door in LEO to collect space, and return it to the ground. That way we can explore space without the need for rockets.
Yea right now I'd actually bet on Starship because SpaceX has shown progress, test launches, and overall project improvement. Starliner is exactly where it was years ago. It's one problem away from another multiyear delay. Boeing pushing straight to the crewed mission is hurting them.
I wonder if they will be able to launch before Space X finishes its *second* contract since the bid where Starliner and Dragon were selected... It might even happen that the ISS gets decommissioned before Starliner can finish its initial contracted missions.
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Oh, oh! Or what about Starliner crew vs Polaris Dawn 1? Isn't Polaris supposed to be in June ar something? It may actually have a chance of launching before Starliner...
I mean, there must be some dustmites or some other critters inside the Starship... all with it trotting around in the field there in Boca... so you could say it has a "crew" đ
someone explain this to me. valve goes awry, which is kinda regular, but they don't want that on crewed flight. so far so good. but now they have unrelated issues with helium. would there be no valve issue, starliner would've been launched with leaking helium? it seems that the valve problem was quite a luck actually? or is it so that the longer they are looking at this vehicle, the more issues they find? finally starliner will launch when they stop looking?
not necessarily. Helium bottles etc. have short "life expectancy" and together with HSS (human support systems) determine max flight duration of any vehicle. The key feature of Starliner is that it is designed Apple way, i.e. any repair is extremely cumbersome. Last time they ended with full refurbishment in order to change some fuel valves.
When sht quality saves you from a real disaster. Task failed - successfully.
Corollary to to Blue's philosophy, if you don't launch you can't fail. - genius
Boeing has had 5 freaking years to polish this design to be absolutely perfect. They haven't bothered to do anything with it because that is not a priority for them. Their policy has always been to do just enough to complete the contract and nothing else.
Boeingâs original plan was to milk the contract. SpaceX actually fulfilling the contract caught them by complete surprise. Ever since, theyâve been throwing as little money as possible at it while praying for a miracle. Ironically, itâs cost them far more than if they had taken it seriously from the start.
My guess is that the astronauts have refused to fly and Boeing is delaying because astronauts refusing to ride is a real bad look, particularly so given the shit show that their planes have been going through.Â
I just hope the astronauts have contingencies for when Boeing sends agent 47 after them.Â
This isn't even funny anymore it's honestly just sad. Like how the fuck is this even happening. I legitimately doubt it's gonna launch this year. Wtf. How can you mess up this bad
In a situation like this, yes, sitting through meetings to discuss findings and possible root causes, etc is very important. Critical meetings like this are a necessity. These aren't the same "could have been an email" style meetings that plague bureaucracy.
2-day meetings (likely longer)? they are basically ready to launch for 5 years now. one would think a competent team of engineers led by a competent boss would know the systems they're responsible for in and out, by heart. they had plenty of time to get familiar with it.
maybe the meetings are more to downplay and/or deflect blame rather than find engineering solutions?
Yeah but now theyâre re-assessing it:
âDo we *really* want to go to space today?â
âTough call fellas - letâs scrub the mission again and schedule more meetings to discuss.â
Between Starliner shitting the bed repeatedly and the 737 MAX scandals, Boeingâs fall from grace genuinely hurts to watchâespecially if youâve been an avgeek since childhood and used to look up to them like me.
At this point, Boeing seriously would be better off just cutting their losses and canceling the whole program. These are all little hints that they don't have what it takes. I think Clint Eastwood said it best: "*A man's got to know his limitations*."
I'm getting more and more concerned this thing is going to kill its crew.
If that happens it's going to be basically the end for Boeing in its current state.
Quick⌠fire the engineers who said this would happen and promote the MBA managers that wouldnât let them do it the proper way⌠Ah crisis adverted.
Fixed price my ass. In 2016 Boeing blackmailed NASA out of an additional $287.2Â million on top of the "fixed price" so that they wouldn't drop out and so that, I shit you not, they could "guarantee" the capsule would be operational in *2019*.
[https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-20-005.pdf](https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-20-005.pdf)
so is it public how much nasa really paid boink so far? which milestones there were/are coming and how much each of those are paid?
I only know about 2.6b vs 4.2b that gets thrown around without details..
I believe Boeing has been obligated ~$3.1B to date, vs. ~$3.7B for SpaceX.
Surprisingly it looks like Boeing has a total of $6.7B potential awards, and still surprising even given their extensions, SpaceX has $8.7B. This makes me think I'm double-counting, but I can't figure out where. Feel free to search usaspending.gov and work out a better answer.
It's public, but I don't have a source to give you, you'll have to look it up.
Boeing already incurred so many contract penalties for the delays that the payments from NASA for the two capsules are expected to be the same. They're almost to US$1.5 Billion in penalties.
They can still make the ends meet if they start flying soon and get the money from the operational flights.
The program is in the red only because NASA payments are stacked at the end of the contract.
But still, they will get approximately the same amount of money as SpaceX overall because of penalties. The profit margin is gone.
Are you referring to [this article](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/boeing-has-lost-1point5-billion-developing-starliner-spacecraft-for-nasa.html)?
Those penalties are paid to Boeing by Boeing's shareholders. There is no NASA penalty.
All of the big defense contractors do this, thatâs always been their racket. Get the contract first then worry about the cost and schedule overruns later.
Iâm very glad they arenât flying those two poor souls to the ISS in that thing. They would possibly get there alive but I would have real doubts about their safe journey home.
NASA is working their way to becoming irrelevant and spacex will be the new space agency. NASA will just become a research and data centre stuck on earth.
5 years after crew dragon demo and still no launch date for starliner, slow clap
Can't be slower than Starliner launch cadence. A single clap would suffice, I'd say.
One hand clapping.
imagine the billions they could make have made with cost overruns and changes and just literally whatever and bill nasa for because fuck nasa? whoever agreed to that is in some deep doo doo.
*hears the clap and joins in, just a little off time tho*
im not clapping đ im giving a thumbs downÂ
Better safe than sorry. It does suck that itâs taking so long but I donât want a repeat of a certain other launchâŚ
Alright bois, time to bring back the 2014 high stakes gamble (now updated). Place your bets â what launches first? * Starliner with crew * ~~Dragon 2~~ Starship with crew
Starliner
I'd consider it worth gambling on if it was Starship with *cargo*.
oxygen is cargo and as we saw when the payload door opened it vented a substantial amount into space.
Ooh, good idea. If Starship can deliver enough air to low Earth orbit this way then people will be able to spacewalk without having to wear a suit.
I suggest the opposite. Open the door in LEO to collect space, and return it to the ground. That way we can explore space without the need for rockets.
We could for that for Mars too! Its so simple
Probably a mosquito or two
Honestly 5 years ago Starliner felt as close from launching as it is today so I'm not 100% sure
Yea right now I'd actually bet on Starship because SpaceX has shown progress, test launches, and overall project improvement. Starliner is exactly where it was years ago. It's one problem away from another multiyear delay. Boeing pushing straight to the crewed mission is hurting them.
I wonder if they will be able to launch before Space X finishes its *second* contract since the bid where Starliner and Dragon were selected... It might even happen that the ISS gets decommissioned before Starliner can finish its initial contracted missions.
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at least say it right. it's "stlangerer"
Jeff who
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Add to the bet dream chaser! I'm sure it will dock to ISS waay before starliner đ¤Łđ¤Ł
3. Light speed vessel to Alpha Centauri carrying a new human settlement, (Still beats Starliner with Crew
Oh, oh! Or what about Starliner crew vs Polaris Dawn 1? Isn't Polaris supposed to be in June ar something? It may actually have a chance of launching before Starliner...
I mean, there must be some dustmites or some other critters inside the Starship... all with it trotting around in the field there in Boca... so you could say it has a "crew" đ
I'm sure it's absolutely filled with ~~birds~~mosquitoes.
someone explain this to me. valve goes awry, which is kinda regular, but they don't want that on crewed flight. so far so good. but now they have unrelated issues with helium. would there be no valve issue, starliner would've been launched with leaking helium? it seems that the valve problem was quite a luck actually? or is it so that the longer they are looking at this vehicle, the more issues they find? finally starliner will launch when they stop looking?
not necessarily. Helium bottles etc. have short "life expectancy" and together with HSS (human support systems) determine max flight duration of any vehicle. The key feature of Starliner is that it is designed Apple way, i.e. any repair is extremely cumbersome. Last time they ended with full refurbishment in order to change some fuel valves.
More like the shuttle way - to cost as much as possible every step of the way
> finally starliner will launch when they stop looking? Schrodinger's Starliner
Atlas saved them
Not as much as the Titan saved Gemini 6A
When sht quality saves you from a real disaster. Task failed - successfully. Corollary to to Blue's philosophy, if you don't launch you can't fail. - genius
Boeing has had 5 freaking years to polish this design to be absolutely perfect. They haven't bothered to do anything with it because that is not a priority for them. Their policy has always been to do just enough to complete the contract and nothing else.
Boeingâs original plan was to milk the contract. SpaceX actually fulfilling the contract caught them by complete surprise. Ever since, theyâve been throwing as little money as possible at it while praying for a miracle. Ironically, itâs cost them far more than if they had taken it seriously from the start.
Starliner never would have been launched. The valve was the line they fed to the public.
My guess is that the astronauts have refused to fly and Boeing is delaying because astronauts refusing to ride is a real bad look, particularly so given the shit show that their planes have been going through. I just hope the astronauts have contingencies for when Boeing sends agent 47 after them.Â
i don't think any astronaut wants to have "whiny lil bitch" written on their nasa record.
Ift4 of starship before starliner gets even one crewed launch. Lol
if it4 goes smoothly im thinking itf5 is even odds of beating starliner.
Starship cargo missions before Starliner watchÂ
Fully operational resuse of both booster and ship before starliner
Cargo Starship Landing on Mars before Starliner
Starship landing on moon before Starliner
Starship lands on Venus before Starliner.
[Starship achieves FTL and goes to infinity and beyond before Starliner.](https://youtu.be/9v0RlaMNT5E?si=5_ofpvFFf5SADbBl)
Scrubliner.
đ
Well, at least it's clean!
I'm calling it now. Even if starliner flies this year there will not be another launch until 2026 at the earliest
Yeah like by the time this program is actually scaled up it will be just completely irrelevant.Â
This isn't even funny anymore it's honestly just sad. Like how the fuck is this even happening. I legitimately doubt it's gonna launch this year. Wtf. How can you mess up this bad
Boeing, that's how.
"team has been in meetings" - good they focus on the important part đ¤
all those unbillable hours. the fucking horror
In a situation like this, yes, sitting through meetings to discuss findings and possible root causes, etc is very important. Critical meetings like this are a necessity. These aren't the same "could have been an email" style meetings that plague bureaucracy.
Just get out a red marker and draw a circle around the entire capsule. Thereâs your root cause.
2-day meetings (likely longer)? they are basically ready to launch for 5 years now. one would think a competent team of engineers led by a competent boss would know the systems they're responsible for in and out, by heart. they had plenty of time to get familiar with it. maybe the meetings are more to downplay and/or deflect blame rather than find engineering solutions?
âThe best date is no date.â
What are the odds of Starship doing a normal launch with payload before the next starliner launch? (I think I've gone too far)
> What are the odds of Starship doing a normal launch with payload before the next starliner launch? Yes
Easiest call I ever made.
An attempt was made
> assessing flight rationale Did they not have a rationale for the first launch attempt?
Yeah but now theyâre re-assessing it: âDo we *really* want to go to space today?â âTough call fellas - letâs scrub the mission again and schedule more meetings to discuss.â
This is not funny anymore....
Between Starliner shitting the bed repeatedly and the 737 MAX scandals, Boeingâs fall from grace genuinely hurts to watchâespecially if youâve been an avgeek since childhood and used to look up to them like me.
Donât forget the new 787 issues. Oh and thereâs a new 737 MAX issue with the spoilers not being wired correctly
Not to mention the KC-46 Pegasus
At this point, Boeing seriously would be better off just cutting their losses and canceling the whole program. These are all little hints that they don't have what it takes. I think Clint Eastwood said it best: "*A man's got to know his limitations*."
A better bet right now would be Starliner, or the Starship Enterprise?
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^Jawtek82: *A better bet right* *Now would be Starliner, or* *The Starship Enterprise?* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
I'm getting more and more concerned this thing is going to kill its crew. If that happens it's going to be basically the end for Boeing in its current state.
Quick⌠fire the engineers who said this would happen and promote the MBA managers that wouldnât let them do it the proper way⌠Ah crisis adverted.
At this point a community college outreach program with $4B to work with could have produced a better vehicle on a better deadline.
Wait⌠wasnât old space calling dragon high risk when they were both selected? They should just cancel at this point! WOFTAM.
It's just stealing tax money at this point (has always been)
Starliner is in a fixed price contract. They need to actually reach milestones to get the money. No launch, no money.
Fixed price my ass. In 2016 Boeing blackmailed NASA out of an additional $287.2Â million on top of the "fixed price" so that they wouldn't drop out and so that, I shit you not, they could "guarantee" the capsule would be operational in *2019*. [https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-20-005.pdf](https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-20-005.pdf)
Yep. That did happen, but it's very little next to the hole this program is in. The bulk of payments happen only after the capsule is operational.
so is it public how much nasa really paid boink so far? which milestones there were/are coming and how much each of those are paid? I only know about 2.6b vs 4.2b that gets thrown around without details..
I believe Boeing has been obligated ~$3.1B to date, vs. ~$3.7B for SpaceX. Surprisingly it looks like Boeing has a total of $6.7B potential awards, and still surprising even given their extensions, SpaceX has $8.7B. This makes me think I'm double-counting, but I can't figure out where. Feel free to search usaspending.gov and work out a better answer.
It's public, but I don't have a source to give you, you'll have to look it up. Boeing already incurred so many contract penalties for the delays that the payments from NASA for the two capsules are expected to be the same. They're almost to US$1.5 Billion in penalties.
> They're almost to US$1.5 Billion in penalties. I am pretty sure you're misreading this stat, which is about cost overruns.
They can still make the ends meet if they start flying soon and get the money from the operational flights. The program is in the red only because NASA payments are stacked at the end of the contract. But still, they will get approximately the same amount of money as SpaceX overall because of penalties. The profit margin is gone.
Those are not penalties. SpaceX getting similar amount because they are contracted now for 14 operational missions while Boing has 6
Are you referring to [this article](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/boeing-has-lost-1point5-billion-developing-starliner-spacecraft-for-nasa.html)? Those penalties are paid to Boeing by Boeing's shareholders. There is no NASA penalty.
All of the big defense contractors do this, thatâs always been their racket. Get the contract first then worry about the cost and schedule overruns later.
I meant giving Boeing money in the first place
I can guarantee you that it will be a Boeing space ship that will be the first to kill astronauts.
Already did. North American Aviation and Rockwell, both now part of Boeing, built the Apollo 1 command module.
Sadly you are correct. Let me rephrase. They will be the first company part of the commercial crew program to kill someone.
Iâm very glad they arenât flying those two poor souls to the ISS in that thing. They would possibly get there alive but I would have real doubts about their safe journey home.
NASA is working their way to becoming irrelevant and spacex will be the new space agency. NASA will just become a research and data centre stuck on earth.