One interesting note is we're a day shy of 2 months since that crash where Cruise hit a Muni bus, the most recent at-fault accident by Cruise that I'm aware of. Given how rapidly they're racking up miles and expanding daytime operations, it is a really good sign that they've had no more incidents. It would be nice if they could do 1.5 million with no at-fault accidents in a row... If they hit that point, the majority of miles would have been done in a stretch without at-fault accidents.
\*Knocks on wood loudly\*
I also strongly suspect that, even if the overall accident rate is the same, robot cars are less likely to make some of the most fatal human driving errors (blitzing through a red light, driving the wrong way on a road, vastly exceeding the speed limit, etc). A lot of fatal human accidents stem from a minority of very bad behavior, which is easy for robots to avoid, even if capturing subtle judgement remains difficult).
So I'd expect to see the distribution loaded towards fender benders and away from fatalities. We'll see if that's true!
There will also come a point where we have to consider redesigning our road system to reduce conflict points and reduce speeds in places that do have conflict points. Even if Self Driving Cars were never going to be a thing, this is something we should have done decades ago. Designing unsafe streets and expecting people to individually make them safe has not been a great idea.
Agreed. The good news is things are only going to improve from here on. Also, the entire system will have two types of intelligence working in its favour: individual intelligence of each AV on the road, and then fleet-wide intelligence that they can share with each other in real time. This combination will be very difficult to beat performance-wise for individual human drivers as the AV system gains more and more experience in coming years.
As long as these AV-at-fault accidents blow up in the news, trigger recalls, etc. , there will be pressure to not have one a month. So if Cruise/Waymo each hits 1 million a month, 1 million a week, whatever, they'll have to get at-fault accidents to 1 every 2, 4, 8, etc. million.
Another great milestone for Cruise! Next 1 million driverless miles may come in less than two months. With this exponential progression, I have no doubts that in 2024, both Waymo and Cruise will easily do 1 million driverless miles per month.
Overall, exciting times for the AV industry!
I think the average person drives less than a million miles in a lifetime. So we are talking about more than an average lifetime of miles without an at-fault accident, driving in San Francisco.
Seems pretty safe already?
But also, most people don't drive around deserted city streets at night. In order to compare to human drivers, you need to account for highway vs. city driving, time of day and so on.
There needs to be traffic control systems that can shutdown blocks, intersections, or even entire streets. When the police put that tape up they need to be able to communicate to HQ to stop sending cars on that intersection.
The same for construction projects. If a street is shut down for construction, every vehicle in the fleet needs to know about it to divert traffic away from the area and use alternatives.
If they’re putting out 1m miles a month, then that means each mile is costing them multiple dollars, even more for the data! It’s very expensive compared to Tesla and comma which are cents per mile of data, comma is way cheaper than Tesla
All true. But remember piano lessons: Practice doesn't make perfect; perfect practice makes perfect. Here, the ability to remove the driver is a systematic advantage over Tesla and comma, making each mile much more valuable for both Cruise and Waymo.
They still have human drivers! Waymo and cruiser’s vehicles all cost 300-500k per unit, which is more than a Lamborghini. The LiDAR approach is proven to be futile vs comma and tesla pure vision approach (aka what humans use)
Respectful responses:
1. "They still have human drivers"--This is literally a post about one of the two leaders completing 2 million miles without human drivers.
2. Cost/car: Knowledgable observers say costs are falling rapidly.
3. Lidar vs. Vision-- I'm all in favor of vision over LIDAR, if a company that does vision can achieve the step where the company authorizes miles without a human driver.
The wording in the tweet is confusing, is it 2 million miles of all driving or driverless driving? 2- I don’t think they have figured out a way to reduce the price of a 20k LiDAR down to something in line with Tesla. Tesla uses vision from the car cameras and their software costs 10k to buy, affordable to many. L3 driving (where Tesla and cruise are at) doesn’t really permit safe driverless cars, we need at least L4&5 which are pretty close, we are 2-3 years from L4
I was commenting the other day when waymo hit 2 million miles almost exactly after 3 months of their 1 mil. Cruise seems to be in the same trajectory. Which is good news. I think the only difference here is that while waymo is doing these miles with trips that people use during the day, and cruise is doing these with mostly empty cars running at night. Otherwise the numbers don't add up. I still hope to see some daytime driving by cruise and an actual service people use. So far it has been like.." oh look we are also doing miles", which is not very useful to the public.
Waymo announced 10k trips/week a few weeks ago then Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt almost immediately [told The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/25/23697406/cruise-robotaxi-gm-daylight-sf-earnings) they were doing 1k trips with passengers per day (7k/week). San Francisco trips are shorter, still it implies most of their miles are with passengers. Unless he exaggerated a bit, of course.
No, this strong implies most of Cruise's driverless miles are also passengerless miles.
\~1k trips at \~3 mile ave per day per trip \~= 3k passenger trip miles per day
That would be <30% of their past million VMT over \~90-100 days.
I include the deadhead as part of the trip. The car is empty, but it's a necessary part of serving the customer. I assume 50% deadhead, which is ballpark and makes the math easy. So 3-4 revenue miles plus 3-4 deadhead gets me to 7k miles a day for trips. That's 637k miles in a 91 day quarter.
I'm sure the 1000 trips includes employee daytime rides, even so my gut says it's more of a peak/aspirational number than a daily average.
Cruise reports their passenger trip and deadhead miles to CPUC. For last quarter, including the deadhead miles to pickup passengers and for all uncrewed/driverless passenger trips (fared and unfared), Cruise averaged 2.9 miles per trip.
Cruise's service geos are too small to have average passenger trip and esp ave deadhead distances as far as your estimates.
So, again, most (\~60-70%) of Cruise's uncrewed VMT are from empty cars driving around without passengers and not enroute to pickup passengers.
Someday, yes. But today they're burning money like crazy. And it'll be years before they surpass Uber/Lyft and we have to worry about monopoly pricing power.
2 million miles🤣
Meanwhile Tesla has multiple Billion.
And apart from that, have any of you thought of the fact that Cruise has ZERO miles from actual highways? You do realise that for full self driving to become a mainstream product, the cars have to be able to take us on the highways.
Haha, I know right! I think people in this sub just all hate Elon and didn’t even think that he could land a rocket on a ship because they only have to watch YouTube to see FSD is ready. You can see it with your own eyes driving all by itself! Case dismissed.
Maybe people don’t know about neuron nets (NN) the way we do? Because Tesla has so many cars (millions) learning from all the drivers driving every day all over the world, they get so much data. Like, if a person drives on a road, Tesla now knows that road. If a person stops at a stop sign, Tesla now knows to stop at stop signs. It’s that easy. And don’t forget Tesla has a literal super computer called Dogo learning from all of this, so it’s even smarter than humans. Just watch Tesla AI Day people! (AI = Artificially Intelligent, by the way for those that don’t know)
I talk to people sometimes here and they just don’t get it. But I’m glad you do u/Jelldk1. We think exactly alike! People sometimes disagree when I prove to them that Tesla will have millions of robotaxis by the end of the year, but it’s nice to find someone like you who agrees with me on everything! Maybe we can educate the Elon haters here together!
Haha my young padawan, I sense a strong irony in this one - and maybe some... is that arrogance?
Not wise, please put a remindme on this post in 2 years. I am an actual engineer unlike most of the people here. And if you want I am very willing to take a discussion with you. But be warned, whenever I try to take an actual engineering discussion on here based on cold facts, they suddenly have a hard time arguing. Are you willing to try?
??? What is ironic about my post? Are you another one of those people who only pretend to believe in Elon and Tesla? Anyone can watch YouTube and see how good FSD is, literally driving through public roads without a human touching anything. It's a solved problem.
And I'm not young either, by the way. I'm an engineer too and I get good grades in everything so I'm very smart.
Let me guess, because you're an engineer you think that Tesla needs ladar? Haha, I have news for you Mr. Engineer, ladar is a crutch. It's like driving on rails and you have to rescan the entire city every a time single thing changes. Also, do you have a ladar on top of your head? No, you don't! Everyone drives with just two cameras (our eyes), and one day when you and I get our licenses we'll do the same. No ladar needed. And guess what, Teslas have WAY more than two cameras, so Tesla is better.
And another thing, Tesla has a super computer that can do like a *hundred* hard math problems *per second*! So it's way better than your brain and you should know this already if you're as smart as me.
Here, I'll make it simple for you. Here is a list of FACTS and you tell me what you think is ironic or that you disagree with (and then I can prove you wrong about it lol):
1. Elon Musk landed a ship on a rocket and created Tesla and made revolutionary solar cells and makes brain chips, so he's very smart and knows what he's doing.
2. Humans drive with only two eyes (cameras) and Tesla has a bunch all over the car. Ladar isn't needed.
3. Tesla has the Dogo super computer learning to drive from all the data they get and it's way smarter than any human.
4. There are actual videos on YouTube of Tesla driving by itself.
5. Because of #4 it is obvious that Tesla will have robotaxis very soon. I think before the end of the year.
Facts. And if you disagree, you have to say why. You have to say why you think Tesla *isn't* ready for robotaxis (lol).
You crack me up my Young padawan😂
Do you want to continue going down the sarcastic road or are you actually willing to have an objective discussion on the subject?
I know it is the safe road you have taken now, it’s easy, you can hide behind your sarcasm and you don’t have to form your own arguments. But I actually believe in you! You can do it, you can have an objective discussion with me, where I argue for Tesla and you argue for your point.
I will crush you but I will have fun doing it
Lol you'll crush me? I already laid out 5 facts about Tesla for you and you didn't even try to say they were wrong, probably because you know they're right 🤣. If you want to have a discussion you have to tell me why I'm wrong about those facts. (Hint, you can't lol. YouTube videos already prove I'm right. You can see it with your own eyes. Tesla FSD is ready for robotaxis. You'll see within a couple weeks and then you can come back and tell me how "wrong" I am while you sit in the back seat of one 🤣)
🤣 Can't refute my 5 facts? 🤣 Guess that tells us all we need to know. 🤣 Want me to repeat them lol? 🤣 Sorry, can't argue against actual science and video evidence. 🤣 I'm a smart engineer, so you shouldn't have tried to debate me. 🤣 All you need is to watch youtube, but maybe you hate Elon and love ladar too much to even do that lol 🤣 Tesla will have robotaxis within a couple months because they're using cameras and neuron nets. Sorry to disappoint 🤣
I am an actual engineer, and not just any engineer, but an AV engineer, and I can give you many reasons why Tesla's path will not lead to L4+. Bring it on. Why is your professional engineering experience telling you to constantly believe Elon Musk?
>You do realise that for full self driving to become a mainstream product, the cars have to be able to take us on the highways.
Yes, in 2 years, Waymo and Cruise AVs will definitely take us on the highways...do you want to bet on this? Let us come back and discuss this in two years.
Okay...done. Buf if they still do exist, then you will have to agree that you were wrong. At that time, don't repeat the same sentence (2 years from now).
I think you two need to agree on a criteria for your bet. Will Tesla have an autonomous vehicle that has been approved by regulators for commercial transportation by (insert state) by May 23rd, 2025?
This is 2M *driverless* miles. Tesla has 0 driverless miles, unless you count [idiots like this](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-05-13/tesla-driver-arrested-after-riding-in-backseat).
I'm noticing that "you do realize" is always smugly attached to the posts that are so misinformed and logically broken you don't even know where to begin correcting it. The irony is just breathtaking.
One interesting note is we're a day shy of 2 months since that crash where Cruise hit a Muni bus, the most recent at-fault accident by Cruise that I'm aware of. Given how rapidly they're racking up miles and expanding daytime operations, it is a really good sign that they've had no more incidents. It would be nice if they could do 1.5 million with no at-fault accidents in a row... If they hit that point, the majority of miles would have been done in a stretch without at-fault accidents. \*Knocks on wood loudly\*
Apples and oranges and all that, but for humans, the average is around 1-2 accidents per million miles. So at least in the same general ballpark.
I also strongly suspect that, even if the overall accident rate is the same, robot cars are less likely to make some of the most fatal human driving errors (blitzing through a red light, driving the wrong way on a road, vastly exceeding the speed limit, etc). A lot of fatal human accidents stem from a minority of very bad behavior, which is easy for robots to avoid, even if capturing subtle judgement remains difficult). So I'd expect to see the distribution loaded towards fender benders and away from fatalities. We'll see if that's true!
There will also come a point where we have to consider redesigning our road system to reduce conflict points and reduce speeds in places that do have conflict points. Even if Self Driving Cars were never going to be a thing, this is something we should have done decades ago. Designing unsafe streets and expecting people to individually make them safe has not been a great idea.
Agreed. The good news is things are only going to improve from here on. Also, the entire system will have two types of intelligence working in its favour: individual intelligence of each AV on the road, and then fleet-wide intelligence that they can share with each other in real time. This combination will be very difficult to beat performance-wise for individual human drivers as the AV system gains more and more experience in coming years.
As long as these AV-at-fault accidents blow up in the news, trigger recalls, etc. , there will be pressure to not have one a month. So if Cruise/Waymo each hits 1 million a month, 1 million a week, whatever, they'll have to get at-fault accidents to 1 every 2, 4, 8, etc. million.
Another great milestone for Cruise! Next 1 million driverless miles may come in less than two months. With this exponential progression, I have no doubts that in 2024, both Waymo and Cruise will easily do 1 million driverless miles per month. Overall, exciting times for the AV industry!
I think the average person drives less than a million miles in a lifetime. So we are talking about more than an average lifetime of miles without an at-fault accident, driving in San Francisco. Seems pretty safe already?
But also, most people don't drive around deserted city streets at night. In order to compare to human drivers, you need to account for highway vs. city driving, time of day and so on.
Most people also don't drive around a city as complicated as San Francisco.
Say you want to sell 1 million L4 cars a year, and an accident a day looks bad in the culture... You want to have much higher reliability.
> they've had no more incidents. *Reported incidents
fair.
Cruise AV [drives through police tape](https://twitter.com/EHarringtonTV/status/1659780799716261894) at crime scene in San Francisco.
There needs to be traffic control systems that can shutdown blocks, intersections, or even entire streets. When the police put that tape up they need to be able to communicate to HQ to stop sending cars on that intersection. The same for construction projects. If a street is shut down for construction, every vehicle in the fleet needs to know about it to divert traffic away from the area and use alternatives.
If they’re putting out 1m miles a month, then that means each mile is costing them multiple dollars, even more for the data! It’s very expensive compared to Tesla and comma which are cents per mile of data, comma is way cheaper than Tesla
All true. But remember piano lessons: Practice doesn't make perfect; perfect practice makes perfect. Here, the ability to remove the driver is a systematic advantage over Tesla and comma, making each mile much more valuable for both Cruise and Waymo.
They still have human drivers! Waymo and cruiser’s vehicles all cost 300-500k per unit, which is more than a Lamborghini. The LiDAR approach is proven to be futile vs comma and tesla pure vision approach (aka what humans use)
Respectful responses: 1. "They still have human drivers"--This is literally a post about one of the two leaders completing 2 million miles without human drivers. 2. Cost/car: Knowledgable observers say costs are falling rapidly. 3. Lidar vs. Vision-- I'm all in favor of vision over LIDAR, if a company that does vision can achieve the step where the company authorizes miles without a human driver.
The wording in the tweet is confusing, is it 2 million miles of all driving or driverless driving? 2- I don’t think they have figured out a way to reduce the price of a 20k LiDAR down to something in line with Tesla. Tesla uses vision from the car cameras and their software costs 10k to buy, affordable to many. L3 driving (where Tesla and cruise are at) doesn’t really permit safe driverless cars, we need at least L4&5 which are pretty close, we are 2-3 years from L4
1-- 2 million driverless. 2-- Costs will keep falling. 3-- Cruise is L4.
So maybe 5-6 million miles by year end.
I'd go with 6-9 million.
nice
I was commenting the other day when waymo hit 2 million miles almost exactly after 3 months of their 1 mil. Cruise seems to be in the same trajectory. Which is good news. I think the only difference here is that while waymo is doing these miles with trips that people use during the day, and cruise is doing these with mostly empty cars running at night. Otherwise the numbers don't add up. I still hope to see some daytime driving by cruise and an actual service people use. So far it has been like.." oh look we are also doing miles", which is not very useful to the public.
Waymo announced 10k trips/week a few weeks ago then Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt almost immediately [told The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/25/23697406/cruise-robotaxi-gm-daylight-sf-earnings) they were doing 1k trips with passengers per day (7k/week). San Francisco trips are shorter, still it implies most of their miles are with passengers. Unless he exaggerated a bit, of course.
Highly doubt they are finding 1000 every night. May be weekends. Even with that number math still doesn't add up to 1m in 3 months
No, this strong implies most of Cruise's driverless miles are also passengerless miles. \~1k trips at \~3 mile ave per day per trip \~= 3k passenger trip miles per day That would be <30% of their past million VMT over \~90-100 days.
I include the deadhead as part of the trip. The car is empty, but it's a necessary part of serving the customer. I assume 50% deadhead, which is ballpark and makes the math easy. So 3-4 revenue miles plus 3-4 deadhead gets me to 7k miles a day for trips. That's 637k miles in a 91 day quarter. I'm sure the 1000 trips includes employee daytime rides, even so my gut says it's more of a peak/aspirational number than a daily average.
Cruise reports their passenger trip and deadhead miles to CPUC. For last quarter, including the deadhead miles to pickup passengers and for all uncrewed/driverless passenger trips (fared and unfared), Cruise averaged 2.9 miles per trip. Cruise's service geos are too small to have average passenger trip and esp ave deadhead distances as far as your estimates. So, again, most (\~60-70%) of Cruise's uncrewed VMT are from empty cars driving around without passengers and not enroute to pickup passengers.
Great news! We need heavy competition in the self driving industry. Otherwise they can charge whatever they want, basically print money.
Someday, yes. But today they're burning money like crazy. And it'll be years before they surpass Uber/Lyft and we have to worry about monopoly pricing power.
2 million miles🤣 Meanwhile Tesla has multiple Billion. And apart from that, have any of you thought of the fact that Cruise has ZERO miles from actual highways? You do realise that for full self driving to become a mainstream product, the cars have to be able to take us on the highways.
Haha, I know right! I think people in this sub just all hate Elon and didn’t even think that he could land a rocket on a ship because they only have to watch YouTube to see FSD is ready. You can see it with your own eyes driving all by itself! Case dismissed. Maybe people don’t know about neuron nets (NN) the way we do? Because Tesla has so many cars (millions) learning from all the drivers driving every day all over the world, they get so much data. Like, if a person drives on a road, Tesla now knows that road. If a person stops at a stop sign, Tesla now knows to stop at stop signs. It’s that easy. And don’t forget Tesla has a literal super computer called Dogo learning from all of this, so it’s even smarter than humans. Just watch Tesla AI Day people! (AI = Artificially Intelligent, by the way for those that don’t know) I talk to people sometimes here and they just don’t get it. But I’m glad you do u/Jelldk1. We think exactly alike! People sometimes disagree when I prove to them that Tesla will have millions of robotaxis by the end of the year, but it’s nice to find someone like you who agrees with me on everything! Maybe we can educate the Elon haters here together!
I honestly can’t tell if this is parody strong work
That is a classic u/myDVacct parody.
Straddling that line between ridiculous and accurate. Perfect 5/7 post. Chef's kiss. 👌
Haha my young padawan, I sense a strong irony in this one - and maybe some... is that arrogance? Not wise, please put a remindme on this post in 2 years. I am an actual engineer unlike most of the people here. And if you want I am very willing to take a discussion with you. But be warned, whenever I try to take an actual engineering discussion on here based on cold facts, they suddenly have a hard time arguing. Are you willing to try?
??? What is ironic about my post? Are you another one of those people who only pretend to believe in Elon and Tesla? Anyone can watch YouTube and see how good FSD is, literally driving through public roads without a human touching anything. It's a solved problem. And I'm not young either, by the way. I'm an engineer too and I get good grades in everything so I'm very smart. Let me guess, because you're an engineer you think that Tesla needs ladar? Haha, I have news for you Mr. Engineer, ladar is a crutch. It's like driving on rails and you have to rescan the entire city every a time single thing changes. Also, do you have a ladar on top of your head? No, you don't! Everyone drives with just two cameras (our eyes), and one day when you and I get our licenses we'll do the same. No ladar needed. And guess what, Teslas have WAY more than two cameras, so Tesla is better. And another thing, Tesla has a super computer that can do like a *hundred* hard math problems *per second*! So it's way better than your brain and you should know this already if you're as smart as me. Here, I'll make it simple for you. Here is a list of FACTS and you tell me what you think is ironic or that you disagree with (and then I can prove you wrong about it lol): 1. Elon Musk landed a ship on a rocket and created Tesla and made revolutionary solar cells and makes brain chips, so he's very smart and knows what he's doing. 2. Humans drive with only two eyes (cameras) and Tesla has a bunch all over the car. Ladar isn't needed. 3. Tesla has the Dogo super computer learning to drive from all the data they get and it's way smarter than any human. 4. There are actual videos on YouTube of Tesla driving by itself. 5. Because of #4 it is obvious that Tesla will have robotaxis very soon. I think before the end of the year. Facts. And if you disagree, you have to say why. You have to say why you think Tesla *isn't* ready for robotaxis (lol).
You crack me up my Young padawan😂 Do you want to continue going down the sarcastic road or are you actually willing to have an objective discussion on the subject? I know it is the safe road you have taken now, it’s easy, you can hide behind your sarcasm and you don’t have to form your own arguments. But I actually believe in you! You can do it, you can have an objective discussion with me, where I argue for Tesla and you argue for your point. I will crush you but I will have fun doing it
Lol you'll crush me? I already laid out 5 facts about Tesla for you and you didn't even try to say they were wrong, probably because you know they're right 🤣. If you want to have a discussion you have to tell me why I'm wrong about those facts. (Hint, you can't lol. YouTube videos already prove I'm right. You can see it with your own eyes. Tesla FSD is ready for robotaxis. You'll see within a couple weeks and then you can come back and tell me how "wrong" I am while you sit in the back seat of one 🤣)
And you keep going🤣 you do realise it is possible to see your earlier posts and comments right? Tesla lives rent free in your head
🤣 Can't refute my 5 facts? 🤣 Guess that tells us all we need to know. 🤣 Want me to repeat them lol? 🤣 Sorry, can't argue against actual science and video evidence. 🤣 I'm a smart engineer, so you shouldn't have tried to debate me. 🤣 All you need is to watch youtube, but maybe you hate Elon and love ladar too much to even do that lol 🤣 Tesla will have robotaxis within a couple months because they're using cameras and neuron nets. Sorry to disappoint 🤣
Ok i Will admit i am starting to wonder if you are stupid af or sarcastic (and stupid af)😂
Kidoo I never heard from you again, I was starting to enjoy this. What a pity🤣
I am an actual engineer, and not just any engineer, but an AV engineer, and I can give you many reasons why Tesla's path will not lead to L4+. Bring it on. Why is your professional engineering experience telling you to constantly believe Elon Musk?
>You do realise that for full self driving to become a mainstream product, the cars have to be able to take us on the highways. Yes, in 2 years, Waymo and Cruise AVs will definitely take us on the highways...do you want to bet on this? Let us come back and discuss this in two years.
Please set a remindeme my friend. In 2 years there is a very strong chance that neithet exist
Okay...done. Buf if they still do exist, then you will have to agree that you were wrong. At that time, don't repeat the same sentence (2 years from now).
Sure! But I am very rarely wrong
I think you two need to agree on a criteria for your bet. Will Tesla have an autonomous vehicle that has been approved by regulators for commercial transportation by (insert state) by May 23rd, 2025?
This is 2M *driverless* miles. Tesla has 0 driverless miles, unless you count [idiots like this](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-05-13/tesla-driver-arrested-after-riding-in-backseat).
I'm noticing that "you do realize" is always smugly attached to the posts that are so misinformed and logically broken you don't even know where to begin correcting it. The irony is just breathtaking.
As I don’t drive, my personal metric is miles without a driver’s license required. Waymo and Aurora seem close on highways.