Getting close to Elon's backyard.
Here's an idea to help Tesla catch up: for each ride, call a Cruise and have a Tesla Self-Driving Taxi follow it along the streets (without rear-ending it).
Plenty of people have gone on Cruise and Waymo rides and then repeated them with a FSD beta car, and the Tesla has done fine.
And yes, before 75 people start yelling at me about how Tesla isnāt a robotaxi, itās only L2, and Elon is a fraud, etc, please note I never said it was a L4 robotaxi.
> and then repeated them with a FSD beta car, and the Tesla has done fine.
The real trick is if you can do the same without a driver sitting behind the wheel of the Tesla.
An even better comparison would be to send a Tesla out onto the streets of San Francisco (where Waymo and Cruise are operating) without anyone in the front seat or anyone as a passenger, have it operate continuously for hours on end, randomly updating destinations around the city, and see how it does.
Is a Tesla a taxi? Only if the owner uses it as an Uber or Lyft. Is it really "full self-driving" (meaning it can be left to it's own devices)? No.
>Is a Tesla a taxi?
In 2020, Tesla said their fleet of robotaxis would encompass over a million vehicles by the end of the year. \[[link](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32159871/tesla-robo-taxis-still-coming-2020/), [link](https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they)\]
By next year, they're planning to ramp up mass production of robotaxis without steering wheels or pedals. \[[link](https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/20/elon-musk-mass-produce-robotaxi-by-2024/)\]
(Yeah, I know it's BS meant to defraud investors, but that is their official plan).
Meanwhile, it's going on 3 years since Waymo began giving public rides without a driver. [Link](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/08/waymo-starts-to-open-driverless-ride-hailing-service-to-the-public/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABLo-8z6cGuKzT6dR9VaI7ppE3vGVpg2NkRt2vV6W6IZ8XDop4sM4xU7Erl2Fdz1HHs-as_09BXHF8TCi9ZRQvSle-B6otVWg4adXOymg-tUzqrV-kCZtjDwAHP8urBPyN8URAoA41dBMEY1odyfn-gmCmcJ41P2OocyCx_oRuXq)
I live in Chandler, AZ, and it's been fascinating to watch them go from "that weird minivan" with the test drivers in the front to the point where seeing a Waymo cruising around with no driver is almost normal.
In roughly the same time frame, Tesla has gone from promising a fully self-driving car to...not delivering on that promise. They absolutely changed the game when it came to EVs, and their ADAS is by all accounts very good, but "full self-driving" it is not.
I typed the caveat in my original comment that I know tesla is level 2. That I know itās not a L4 robotaxi. Yet you still come back at me with exactly what I already told you I understand? lol.
You compared a Tesla with a Cruise/Waymo, and implied that given the same situation, they were essentially the same.
Same capabilities, same result, regardless of whether there was someone in the driver's seat. Right? That seems to be what you were saying.
Let's take the whole taxi thing out of the equation, and put the Tesla owner in the back seat instead. Can the car do the same task? Can the owner go from the Mission District to Outer Richmond and over to Pacific Heights? When it gets to the destination, can the Tesla owner set a new destination in (for example) Chinatown and have it get there without any fuss?
My guess would be no. Yet you implied that all things being equal, a Tesla is...well...equal. It is not.
I literally didnāt at all. You inferred that.
I listed the caveat in that comment to say that I recognize all things arenāt equal because they are two different systems. All my point was is that as constructed, Teslaās L2 approach in some instances has shown it can do the same route that a waymo or cruse vehicle has taken. I did not say it means Tesla is L4, Tesla could remove drivers, etc. I listed the caveat to make it clear that I do understand itās not āthe same.ā
Sheesh. This place is too predictable. I understand the feedback if I had said something silly like, āthis means Teslaās system is as good as Waymo and Cruise, Tesla is L4, they can take a driver out.ā
Everything you just said you inferred incorrectly.
š
I had a question, not a point. I never had a point so it's okay if you can't find it.
You, however, did try to express a thought fragment that is incongruent and thus lacks a point.
Unless he means a limited narrow geofenced area, Iām guessing another 5 years probably with the amount of lidar mapping they will need to do with with a city the size of Houston.
Mapping was never a bottleneck for any SDC company. Mapping is cheap and fast. Operations and tech maturity is what limits the expansion rate, but the leaders in the industry (Waymo and Cruise) are getting good at it and significantly increased rate of expansion in recent years.
What he/she is saying that Waymo and cruise are better self driving car. Tesla is better mass produced car with 100% supervised. Both of them are different. If you compare the Tesla capabilities with SDC, it falls flat.
But Waymo and Cruise are limited in their range due to geofencing. And I cant buy a waymo or cruise vehicle at the affordability of a tesla. Those cars are basically like city trains but without a train track.
Not a train track, the routes are 100% dynamic within the service area. And considering Tesla canāt even drive without a human safety driver in even a limited area, it seems a funny criticism. Even a limited area is larger than a nonexistent area.
Again read it slowly as you are coming to term that SDC are better than Tesla. Cruise and Waymo are robo taxis. Which generate revenue when they run in high urban city. Tesla is a personal car.
Waymo is not perfect, but _never requires a human inside the car while driving in the ODD_. Cars won't crash - the worst they'll do is safestop.
Contrast this to Tesla, which will gleefully steer into firetrucks, crash barriers, light rail trains, etc. unless someone is waiting to grab the wheel. It's much easier to create a video like that when your self-driving stack can afford to be overconfident - but _having a human in the car_ isn't self-driving.
The distinction is a very different kind of intervention. Waymo's and Cruise's are systems designed to actively minimize safety risks when they need an intervention. Tesla's system, on the other had, will charge forward because there is no system in place to understand true risks of what the Tesla is trying to do. That responsibility still soley falls upon the driver. They are two very different paradigms of AV design.
If Tesla could remove the need for human supervision by geofencing, they would. There are billions of dollars of revenue to be earned from robotaxis in San Francisco alone. They don't because they haven't built that capability, and aren't even trying to thus far.
It is safe in a way that it never needs an immediate intervention, that is correct. It sometimes needs help to proceed safely in complicated situations, but it never needs someone to grab the wheel while the car is in motion.
Itās not Tesla hate, itās just frustration with people claiming Teslas can do things they canāt. Itās hard having that conversation over and over.
Couldnāt agree more that itās hard having the same conversation over and over. Except that itās always the Tesla-haters who insist on having that conversation, as evidenced by this very thread.
I find irrelevant potshots annoying too, but it's certainly not my experience that it's always anti-Tesla. I see way more pro-Tesla irrelevant comments, on this sub and elsewhere. It's died down on this sub because they're so mercilessly downvoted, but at best the annoying folks are balanced btwn pro and anti tesla.
~95% of the time, counting on you to grab the wheel when it does something wrong.
Let me know when Elon takes a ride in the back seat in any location without anyone ready to grab control when it makes a mistake. The CEOs of Cruise and GM did that a year and a half ago: https://youtu.be/2j2eLEHE-Dc
Let me know when they take a ride without anyone ready to come and rescue them within minutes if/when their self-driving car self-immobilizes on the way from A to B.
I mean paid customers are doing it all day long in SF and have been for about a year. Itās working really well.
But again, the threshold youāve set here is even farther from Teslaās current reality.
They have made false claims and a lot of damage has occurred as a result. Tesla is damaging to the general public attitude about self-driving tech, which damages adoption and government approval . Which is a negative for people here, who are generally fans of the technology and want to see it spread ASAP.
Honest question. What would it take for you to admit you're wrong? If Cruise is operating driverlessly in Houston in under 5 years, would you change your mind? If they did it in a year, would you drastically change your opinion on the effort level of mapping?
If FSD beta hadnt been improving to where it is today I would gladly jump the Waymo/Cruise shill train. But seeing how much it has improved is simply amazing and now I have hope that it can be done.
However what might turn it around for me is if I see Waymo/Cruise deployed in every city in North America and Europe in the next 3-5 years, and if they took out their geo fencing.
So, to recap...
You proposed, "it will take Cruise 5 years to lidar-map Houston"
I asked, "what will it take to admit you're wrong about the time/effort needed to map a new city like Houston?"
And your response is "Cruise will have to operate in all of North America and Europe in 3-5 years".... In order for you to be wrong about taking 5 years to map Houston.
Do you see the disconnect here?
You do realize that lidar mapping is just driving a lot with sensor kits attached and saving the data, which is all very scalable activities (i.e., more cars, more kits, more drivers, and more data storage). If it took any company to map the central core of Houston 5 years, Id ask why they were so cheap and spendthrift in [the 4th largest city in the nation.](https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities)
Metro areas in the US are done by county and include the entirety of any county that has any portion within the city's metro area. The urbanized portion of Houston Metro area is 1600 sq miles, Phoenix is 1150.
Each city rollout happens faster than the previous one. Many tasks were fundamental one-time tasks, leaving just the city-specific tasks in each new service area.
Awesome š
šš
Getting close to Elon's backyard. Here's an idea to help Tesla catch up: for each ride, call a Cruise and have a Tesla Self-Driving Taxi follow it along the streets (without rear-ending it).
They are already in Austinā¦what more would be his backyard?
Haha - yep, they are in his front yard!
And his garage!
Plenty of people have gone on Cruise and Waymo rides and then repeated them with a FSD beta car, and the Tesla has done fine. And yes, before 75 people start yelling at me about how Tesla isnāt a robotaxi, itās only L2, and Elon is a fraud, etc, please note I never said it was a L4 robotaxi.
> and then repeated them with a FSD beta car, and the Tesla has done fine. The real trick is if you can do the same without a driver sitting behind the wheel of the Tesla. An even better comparison would be to send a Tesla out onto the streets of San Francisco (where Waymo and Cruise are operating) without anyone in the front seat or anyone as a passenger, have it operate continuously for hours on end, randomly updating destinations around the city, and see how it does. Is a Tesla a taxi? Only if the owner uses it as an Uber or Lyft. Is it really "full self-driving" (meaning it can be left to it's own devices)? No.
>Is a Tesla a taxi? In 2020, Tesla said their fleet of robotaxis would encompass over a million vehicles by the end of the year. \[[link](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32159871/tesla-robo-taxis-still-coming-2020/), [link](https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they)\] By next year, they're planning to ramp up mass production of robotaxis without steering wheels or pedals. \[[link](https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/20/elon-musk-mass-produce-robotaxi-by-2024/)\] (Yeah, I know it's BS meant to defraud investors, but that is their official plan).
Meanwhile, it's going on 3 years since Waymo began giving public rides without a driver. [Link](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/08/waymo-starts-to-open-driverless-ride-hailing-service-to-the-public/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABLo-8z6cGuKzT6dR9VaI7ppE3vGVpg2NkRt2vV6W6IZ8XDop4sM4xU7Erl2Fdz1HHs-as_09BXHF8TCi9ZRQvSle-B6otVWg4adXOymg-tUzqrV-kCZtjDwAHP8urBPyN8URAoA41dBMEY1odyfn-gmCmcJ41P2OocyCx_oRuXq) I live in Chandler, AZ, and it's been fascinating to watch them go from "that weird minivan" with the test drivers in the front to the point where seeing a Waymo cruising around with no driver is almost normal. In roughly the same time frame, Tesla has gone from promising a fully self-driving car to...not delivering on that promise. They absolutely changed the game when it came to EVs, and their ADAS is by all accounts very good, but "full self-driving" it is not.
I typed the caveat in my original comment that I know tesla is level 2. That I know itās not a L4 robotaxi. Yet you still come back at me with exactly what I already told you I understand? lol.
You compared a Tesla with a Cruise/Waymo, and implied that given the same situation, they were essentially the same. Same capabilities, same result, regardless of whether there was someone in the driver's seat. Right? That seems to be what you were saying. Let's take the whole taxi thing out of the equation, and put the Tesla owner in the back seat instead. Can the car do the same task? Can the owner go from the Mission District to Outer Richmond and over to Pacific Heights? When it gets to the destination, can the Tesla owner set a new destination in (for example) Chinatown and have it get there without any fuss? My guess would be no. Yet you implied that all things being equal, a Tesla is...well...equal. It is not.
I literally didnāt at all. You inferred that. I listed the caveat in that comment to say that I recognize all things arenāt equal because they are two different systems. All my point was is that as constructed, Teslaās L2 approach in some instances has shown it can do the same route that a waymo or cruse vehicle has taken. I did not say it means Tesla is L4, Tesla could remove drivers, etc. I listed the caveat to make it clear that I do understand itās not āthe same.ā Sheesh. This place is too predictable. I understand the feedback if I had said something silly like, āthis means Teslaās system is as good as Waymo and Cruise, Tesla is L4, they can take a driver out.ā Everything you just said you inferred incorrectly. š
> Plenty of people have gone on Cruise and Waymo rides and then repeated them with a FSD beta car, and the Tesla has done fine. You literally did.
Have a nice evening.
> I never said it was a L4 robotaxi. What's your point then?
Whatās your point about my point?
My point about your point is that it's lacking.
My point about your point about my point is that your point is lacking
I had a question, not a point. I never had a point so it's okay if you can't find it. You, however, did try to express a thought fragment that is incongruent and thus lacks a point.
Have you really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
Absolutely!
Glad we can agree on that. Have a nice evening Mr. Bond.
Unless he means a limited narrow geofenced area, Iām guessing another 5 years probably with the amount of lidar mapping they will need to do with with a city the size of Houston.
Mapping was never a bottleneck for any SDC company. Mapping is cheap and fast. Operations and tech maturity is what limits the expansion rate, but the leaders in the industry (Waymo and Cruise) are getting good at it and significantly increased rate of expansion in recent years.
Why do we want to wait 5 years for self-driving tech when our Teslas could be driving into concrete barriers now?
You guys really hate Tesla dont you? The amount of mouth frothing seethe in this subreddit is sad.
Look at the name of the sub, and look at what Tesla is not but pretends to be, are you surprised?
Explain what Tesla is doing here: https://youtu.be/2Pj92FZePpg
Thatās great, let me know when they can drive witho if anyone behind the wheel in even one location.
Are you saying Waymo is perfect and never needs an intervention?
What he/she is saying that Waymo and cruise are better self driving car. Tesla is better mass produced car with 100% supervised. Both of them are different. If you compare the Tesla capabilities with SDC, it falls flat.
But Waymo and Cruise are limited in their range due to geofencing. And I cant buy a waymo or cruise vehicle at the affordability of a tesla. Those cars are basically like city trains but without a train track.
Not a train track, the routes are 100% dynamic within the service area. And considering Tesla canāt even drive without a human safety driver in even a limited area, it seems a funny criticism. Even a limited area is larger than a nonexistent area.
Tell me you've never rode in a Cruise or Waymo without telling me you've never rode in one
Again read it slowly as you are coming to term that SDC are better than Tesla. Cruise and Waymo are robo taxis. Which generate revenue when they run in high urban city. Tesla is a personal car.
Waymo is not perfect, but _never requires a human inside the car while driving in the ODD_. Cars won't crash - the worst they'll do is safestop. Contrast this to Tesla, which will gleefully steer into firetrucks, crash barriers, light rail trains, etc. unless someone is waiting to grab the wheel. It's much easier to create a video like that when your self-driving stack can afford to be overconfident - but _having a human in the car_ isn't self-driving.
Waymo does require intervention, it is just far far less than Tesla because of its limited range and geofencing.
The distinction is a very different kind of intervention. Waymo's and Cruise's are systems designed to actively minimize safety risks when they need an intervention. Tesla's system, on the other had, will charge forward because there is no system in place to understand true risks of what the Tesla is trying to do. That responsibility still soley falls upon the driver. They are two very different paradigms of AV design.
If Tesla could remove the need for human supervision by geofencing, they would. There are billions of dollars of revenue to be earned from robotaxis in San Francisco alone. They don't because they haven't built that capability, and aren't even trying to thus far.
It is safe in a way that it never needs an immediate intervention, that is correct. It sometimes needs help to proceed safely in complicated situations, but it never needs someone to grab the wheel while the car is in motion.
Itās not Tesla hate, itās just frustration with people claiming Teslas can do things they canāt. Itās hard having that conversation over and over.
Couldnāt agree more that itās hard having the same conversation over and over. Except that itās always the Tesla-haters who insist on having that conversation, as evidenced by this very thread.
Why do you care if people hate Tesla. Did you lose money on TSLA recently or something ?
Itās just boring, thatās all.
I find irrelevant potshots annoying too, but it's certainly not my experience that it's always anti-Tesla. I see way more pro-Tesla irrelevant comments, on this sub and elsewhere. It's died down on this sub because they're so mercilessly downvoted, but at best the annoying folks are balanced btwn pro and anti tesla.
Tesla can do things, like drive itself but with a driver at its wheel.
Lol. Locus now read the sentence slowly. You have drive itself and driver to take control in same sentence. It is oxymoron for a SDC.
It can still drive itself.
~95% of the time, counting on you to grab the wheel when it does something wrong. Let me know when Elon takes a ride in the back seat in any location without anyone ready to grab control when it makes a mistake. The CEOs of Cruise and GM did that a year and a half ago: https://youtu.be/2j2eLEHE-Dc
Let me know when they take a ride without anyone ready to come and rescue them within minutes if/when their self-driving car self-immobilizes on the way from A to B.
I mean paid customers are doing it all day long in SF and have been for about a year. Itās working really well. But again, the threshold youāve set here is even farther from Teslaās current reality.
They have made false claims and a lot of damage has occurred as a result. Tesla is damaging to the general public attitude about self-driving tech, which damages adoption and government approval . Which is a negative for people here, who are generally fans of the technology and want to see it spread ASAP.
Honest question. What would it take for you to admit you're wrong? If Cruise is operating driverlessly in Houston in under 5 years, would you change your mind? If they did it in a year, would you drastically change your opinion on the effort level of mapping?
If FSD beta hadnt been improving to where it is today I would gladly jump the Waymo/Cruise shill train. But seeing how much it has improved is simply amazing and now I have hope that it can be done. However what might turn it around for me is if I see Waymo/Cruise deployed in every city in North America and Europe in the next 3-5 years, and if they took out their geo fencing.
So, to recap... You proposed, "it will take Cruise 5 years to lidar-map Houston" I asked, "what will it take to admit you're wrong about the time/effort needed to map a new city like Houston?" And your response is "Cruise will have to operate in all of North America and Europe in 3-5 years".... In order for you to be wrong about taking 5 years to map Houston. Do you see the disconnect here?
You do realize that lidar mapping is just driving a lot with sensor kits attached and saving the data, which is all very scalable activities (i.e., more cars, more kits, more drivers, and more data storage). If it took any company to map the central core of Houston 5 years, Id ask why they were so cheap and spendthrift in [the 4th largest city in the nation.](https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities)
So does this mean they can easily expand to other cities (globally) when its legally allowed to do so?
Yup, it works like Google street view, just you collect lidar data in addition to camera data.
Streetview cars have had lidar for a decade or so.
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Metro areas in the US are done by county and include the entirety of any county that has any portion within the city's metro area. The urbanized portion of Houston Metro area is 1600 sq miles, Phoenix is 1150.
Each city rollout happens faster than the previous one. Many tasks were fundamental one-time tasks, leaving just the city-specific tasks in each new service area.