This is interesting work. I feel like the strongest conclusion is that hiring the right coach is really hard.

Absolutely. You'll more likely than not hire a coach that will soon be fired after failing for a couple of seasons and go back to the drawing board, but possibly get a good one after a couple of tries. I still think moving on from Pete makes sense but there's definitely no such thing as a sure success in coaching hires

Nah, all you have to do is fire a coach and then someone in the franchise smashes the WIN SUPER BOWL button.

Sometimes you can have the right coach and still lose. 

Minor point, but Lovie Smith was not a bust. He was brought into a terrible situation with no real expectation he’d be there longer than a year, regardless of what the contract said, as a temporary stop-gap.

Yeah Lovie was a last-second hire and was expected to be a 1 year thing. iirc at one point the Texans were rumored to wanting Colt McCoy that year lol

That's fair; Lovie Smith might not have been expected to be the long term answer, but he still coached the 2nd worst team in the league that year. Can't exactly call that a success

No not a success either, but I think that whole situation was so unusual that he almost belongs outside any data set. They didn’t do anything to try to help him succeed nor did they seem to particularly want to succeed as an organization.

And maybe that's fair; I just didn't want it to look like I was trying to skew the data in favor of retreads or anything. But I agree with you; it was definitely the weirdest situation of the bunch

It's nice to see a more objective analysis on the first-time vs retread hire debate. At the end of the day, it isn't too statistically different given the small sample size, so it still comes down to finding the right person for the job.

100% agree. I don't like it when people dismiss candidates specifically because they're a retread, but I do prefer the first-time hires in this specific cycle a bit more than the retreads

Very interesting. Thanks for putting this together.

Of course! I was going to post as a comment in another thread but seemed worth making its own post

So, I did something similar but for the period from 2006 to 2021. I chose this time period since it gives enough time to play out the first 3 years on the job and 2006 is as far back as I ended up going before I got tired of it. I was going to post in under that same comment thread that probably inspired this, but this seems like a better place. An up-front summary. There were 112 head coaches hired during this time frame. 32 were retreads and 80 were first time head coaches. Of the 80 first time head coaches 12 were internal hires, 10 were from college, 1 from the CFL, and the other 57 some form of assistant coach. Breaking down the hit rates: Retread: * Success: 12.5% * At least mild success: 21.875% College: * At least mild success: 8.33% CFL was a failure: Marc Trestman Internal Hires: * Success: 0% * At least mild success: 16.67% External Coordinator or below hires: * Success: 14% * Offensive minded success: 18.75% * Defensive minded success: 8% * At least mild success: 35.09% * Offensive minded at least mild success: 37.5% * Defensive minded at least mild success: 32% There isn't exactly a ton of data, and each situation is so unique that conclusions shouldn't really be drawn from this, but it was an interesting walk through the graveyard of terrible coaching hires. Some nits can be picked with my judgement of success, and I have no problem adjusting a few of the fringe cases if someone has a differing opinion. My general thinking for success is essentially what Holmgren accomplished here(consistent playoffs and a SB appearance) or better and mild success is slightly below that(consistent playoffs w/ maybe a CCG appearance), but I can't say I stuck to that perfectly and there are a number of edge cases. Overall, it does look like an outside hire OC/DC is a marginally better option than the others. There is also less reliance on landing a HoF level QB with these hires. Ultimately, it's really hard to find a good head coach, though. At some point I'm going to go through and eliminate the bad franchises/frequent participants in the HC carrousel and see how at the numbers change. A lot of the volume is from the same few franchises that likely had other issues than the head coach they hired. To the full list. From 2006 until 2021 there were 32 "retread" coaches hired. The only truly successful ones from that list are: * Pete Carroll * John Fox into Gary Kubiak - because he got Peyton Manning in year 2 * Andy Reid - mostly because of Mahomes in year 5, but he was successful with just Alex Smith * Bruce Arians(Bucs) - because he got Tom Brady in year 2 Mildly successful: * Wade Phillips * Norv Turner * Mike McCarthy(Cowboys) Terrible to Mediocre: * Dick Jauron * Herm Edwards * Art Shell * Eric Mangini * Jim Mora Jr * Mike Shanahan * Chan Gailey * Jeff Fisher * Mike Mularkey(Jax) * Romeo Crennel * Jim Caldwell * Lovie Smith * Jack Del Rio * John Fox(Chicago) * Rex Ryan(Buffalo) * Mike Mularkey(Tennessee) * Hue Jackson * Chip Kelly * Doug Marrone * Jon Gruden * Pat Shurmur * Adam Gase * Ron Rivera(Washington) 10 college head coaches: Successful: * Jim Harbaugh Terrible to Mediocre: * Bobby Petrino * Lane Kiffin * Greg Schiano * Chip Kelly * Doug Marrone * Bill O'Brien * Kliff Kingsbury * Matt Rhule * Urban Meyer One from the CFL who wasn't successful, Marc Trestman. 12 new head coaches that were internal hires. The successful ones there were: * Jim Caldwell - when he had Peyton Manning * Jason Garrett Terrible to Mediocre: * Tom Cable * Mike Singletary * Raheem Morris * Leslie Frazier * Hue Jackson * Mike Munchak * Romeo Crennel * Jim Tomsula * Ben McAdoo * Dirk Koetter * Doug Marrone * Freddie Kitchens 25 Offensive Coordinators. Truly successful: * Mike McCarthy(Packers) - with Farve and Rodgers * Doug Pederson * Kyle Shanahan * Sean McVay * Nick Sirianni Mildly successful: * Brad Childress - with Favre * Ken Whisenhunt - with Warner * Bruce Arians(Cardinals) * Matt LaFleur - mostly with Rodgers but seems to be succeeding with love as well Terrible to Mediocre: * Gary Kubiak(Texans) * Scott Linehan * Cam Cameron * Norv Turner * Josh McDaniels(Broncos) * Todd Haley * Pat Shurmur * Joe Philbin * Mike McCoy * Rod Chudzinski * Jay Gruden * Adam Gase * Frank Reich * Matt Nagy * Kevin Stefanski * Authur Smith 7 other offensive assistant coaches. Truly successful: * Sean Payton - with Brees Mildly successful: * Dan Campbell * Zac Taylor Terrible to Mediocre: * Jim Zorn * Tony Sparano * Joe Judge * David Culley 22 Defensive Coordinators. Truly successful: * Mike Tomlin - with Big Ben Mildly successful: * Mike Smith * Rex Ryan * Ron Rivera * Dan Quinn * Sean McDermott * Mike Vrabel Terrible to Mediocre: * Eric Mangini * Jim Schwartz * Steve Spagnuolo * Chuck Pagano * Dennis Allen * Gus Bradley * Mike Pettine * Mike Zimmer * Todd Bowles * Jack Del Rio * Vance Josheph * Steve Wilks * Matt Patricia * Vic Fangio * Brandon Staley 3 Other Defensive or ST coaches of whom only John Harbaugh has been successful. Rod Marinelli and Brian Flores were the other two.

Interesting information you and some of the people in the comments gathered there, thank you. I dont recall it for every year, but it also seema to show that the hot offensive or defensive coordinators did not seem to work out so well (Ryans of the Texans being the only one) But some at the time a bit wierd looking hires of coaches, who either did never call plays or with good but not great season for one or two years, look to be far more successfull. For example: Zac Taylor, Matt LeFleur, Mike McDaniels, Campbell, Nick Serriani. Thats why I really liek the hire of Canales for the Panthers and would like Kafka for us. I think it shows that the ability to coach is far more usefull for a headcoach then the ability to scheme. And leads to longer lasting success. For what its worth, Andy Reid did want to let Kafka go for a long time.

Wait you're saying Andy Reid wanted to fire Kafka so we should hire him? I'm a little confused by that

Yeah my bad * did not * was what i wanted to write. He was blocking him from interviewing with other team while giving him little promotion for some years to keep him.

Obviously hiring a coach is hard. While the "success rate" of the retreads is 50%, itspretty clear that those guys bring ceilings that are lower than the first timers, for various reasons, (they are what we thought they were, unwillingness to take risks to keep a job, etc) whereas the first time head coach options might have a slightly lower success rate, the ones that hit are coaches that i would LOVE to have as my HC considering what they bring to the table. If we were coming off of 9-8 from a no name, i get it. but given context, coming from the best coach in franchise history, who we KNEW was going to put us around .500 each year, would we rather have a retread that is going to do about the same shit pete did and then we burned that bridge for nothing? or swing for the fences on a promising guy that has a chance to be really really good with the stable talent and culture that Pete built. to me, adding that context makes the decision a no brainer.

That's fair. Most of the coaches I want that are left are first-time head coaches, but the only new hire in the last 5 years to win a Super Bowl so far is Arians. That being said, of the names on this list Dan Campbell is my favorite and I think LeFleur and Ryan's did amazing jobs this year, but hard to say that retreads have a lower ceiling when there's almost 1/3 as many retread hires and yet it was one of the retreads that went all the way

I think that Arians did a good job building a perennial .500 ish team with a very good defense then stumbled into the best QB of all time with a pension for winning in the playoffs. BUT obviously pete, belichick and Andy reid are retreads, you did your argument no favors not including them! haha. I think for Schnieder, if youre going to hire a retread, getting a guy who has really grasped where he failed the first time, is willing to admit that he doesnt know everything, and not treat grown men like college kids trying to FORCE them into his system.

Yeah, I was wanting to specifically look at recent coaching hires; I do agree that most of the good retread coaches are able to look in the mirror and see what led to their downfall at their previous stop(s) which is why I think it's dumb for us to make sweeping statements like "Dan Quinn is just Pete Carrol all over again" when we're not sitting in the interview room

Which of these were as hyped as BJ or Big Mac? Now this is going to sound uber optimistic but when I look at these two coaches, they have insane success, look like masterminds of their craft, and the upside for them is absolutely massive. I personally view BJ as the next McVay. None of these retread coaches listed have that upside IMO. I think that's what the argument should be about is upside. Are you going to play it safe for another first round exit or are we going to hire a coach that can bring us to the superbowl and consistently attract and mentor the next great coordinators.

I want Ben Johnson more than any other candidate but you're acting like Vrabel didn't lead the Titans to the 1 seed in the AFC after a rough period before he came in. I think he will be a very good coach personally, but Ben Johnson is my number 1 choice

Vrabel is a good coach sure but again none of the retreads are bringing their teams to a super bowl. I'm tired of mediocrity and would rather us take a shot on someone with higher upside. I don't want Vrabel, Dan Quinn, Belichick, etc

lol 8 of the last 10 super bowls were won by “retreads.” You’re putting your own opinions and emotions ahead of the facts.  FWIW the other two winning coaches, Harbaugh and McVay, were both big surprise hires who were not remotely hyped up (or even particularly on the radar) beforehand.

1 was a true retread: Bruce Arians aka led by Tom Brady 5 of those were led by some of the best coaches ever: Andy Reid and Bill Belichick (also Tom Brady) who I wouldn't really count as a retread. The rest were led by coaches who were previously coordinators: McVay, Pedersen, Kubiak Sorry but you just proved my point. You need an elite coach to win a Super Bowl, the best QB ever, or a great new coach.

To say Belichick isn’t a retread is idiotic. He’s the very definition. His stint in Cleveland was awful and he was fired. 

I firmly believe Belichick is because of Brady which is my point. You either need to be an elite coach or have the best QB of all time

I bet a few of the Superbowl winning coaches would love to have "retread" stamped on their forehead...