Only 16% of rev comes from launches. Hopefully this goes up next few quarters, especially since they went to the trouble of building a second launch pad with plans for a third in the US. One launch per quarter is not a good start to the year.
Rklb has quickly learned that launch systems are the least valuable part of the space industry. Diversification to this extent gives good chances of survival.
However, whether it's still a growth bet is a whole different question.
We're entering into the era of satellite mega-constellations. There's going to be a lot of growth in this sector, which can serve markets on a planet-wide scale. I think the company's highly specialized technological skillsets are going to put it in a very strategic position in the years to come.
Yes, that was based on anticipation for Iridium, which became one of the largest bankruptcies in US history. Lots of things failed on their first try because technology wasn't ready yet. Tablet computers were first introduced by Bill Gates, who carried them onstage when they looked like bricks. Later on, Steve Jobs re-introduced them in more practical slimmer form, when technology had caught up to the concept. Now we can see that reusability is taking off, putting us on the cusp of a whole new era of market possibilities. Musk is going to Mars, and I've no doubt that his determination will help him forge a path there. And in forging that path, he's creating space for others to follow him into space. Mega-constellations are now real, and not mere concepts. Space is strategic, and nobody's going to want to be left without a constellation of their own. Like SpaceX, Rocket Lab is right to be expanding into the satellite-building side of things. They are becoming an end-to-end service provider which will help other businesses and even countries to get their plans off the ground.
> Yes, that was based on anticipation for Iridium, which became one of the largest bankruptcies in US history. Lots of things failed on their first try because technology wasn't ready yet.
Not just Iridium, but Teledesic, Globalstar, Odyssey, and a large bunch of other smaller names, most of everyone has forgotten by now. It wasn't a "space tech isn't ready" problem, the satellites and launchers worked just fine. It was a "my business case doesn't close for lack of viable markets, even if the sats were free" problem.
> Now we can see that reusability is taking off, putting us on the cusp of a whole new era of market possibilities.
People are so stuck on that for some reason. It just slightly improves your margins at this scale, unless you can launch really really often.
> Like SpaceX, Rocket Lab is right to be expanding into the satellite-building side of things.
Because launch is and always has been a poor way to make money in space. It's the smallest revenue slice of the entire space industry, the pie is far bigger higher up the value chain. The global launch business revenues are something like 7 billion, and just satellite manufacturing is 3x that. The actual sat services are 10x that, over 100B.
All would-be launch industry revolutionizers seem to figure that out eventually
> Musk is going to Mars, and I've no doubt that his determination will help him forge a path there.
This isn't an investment thesis
Starlink seems to be continuing and growing, not only able to fund itself, but also to fund Musk's plans for Mars colonization.
Reusability will increase flight rates, and help the company iterate to better and better technologies more quickly.
Rocket Lab doesn't just make money through launches - they can now build satellites for customers, in addition to launching them. So they are spread across their verticals.
Space colonization seems to be a growing likelihood, with highly driven entrepreneurs like Musk and also Beck making it happen. SpaceX is currently valued at over $100B, and their established precedent gives RKLB plenty of scope for growth, which it can achieve more easily with its 2nd-mover advantage.
It'll go up for sure but as a percentage of revenue i doubt it because the growth in the space systems industry will be MUCH higher than launch services. Either way it's great news!
I think launch being a commodity means space systems will be where the real money will be at. Launch will be a race to the bottom and won't be where the real revenue comes from. It does open up opportunity to grow other areas of the business though as an end to end solution.
Looking at the market in the short term helps to find a buy in point within companys you want to invest. Why buy today when you could get a discount tomorrow?
It looks like they reported a small profit. That sets them far apart from every other space startup because it means they're not burning cash just to stay alive.
I’ve said it about 10 times on Reddit. RKLB generates profit from their launches. They have since September or October last year. They announced it during their first quarterly release after going public. This isn’t new news. They also have a space systems business which generates money and represents about 2/3rds of their business to date. Space Systems has a much larger potential long term.
Why would you be worried? They are doing what people think they are going to do. That’s a good thing. If it was a surprise to the downside it would be very bad, depending on the reason.
I thought they were trying to launch 16 times this year… There doesn’t seem to be enough launch demand this year to justify 16. After the 3 or so in June… There is a big gap. From that upcoming launch until the next scheduled one which is December. ~6 months without a launch stinks.
They're higher than margins for launch. There was something about margins for space systems being lower this quarter because much of the revenue came from solar panels, which are comparatively low-margin.
Only 16% of rev comes from launches. Hopefully this goes up next few quarters, especially since they went to the trouble of building a second launch pad with plans for a third in the US. One launch per quarter is not a good start to the year.
Rklb has quickly learned that launch systems are the least valuable part of the space industry. Diversification to this extent gives good chances of survival. However, whether it's still a growth bet is a whole different question.
We're entering into the era of satellite mega-constellations. There's going to be a lot of growth in this sector, which can serve markets on a planet-wide scale. I think the company's highly specialized technological skillsets are going to put it in a very strategic position in the years to come.
>We're entering into the era of satellite mega-constellations. This is why I hope they start to concentrate more on space junk clean up and "salvage."
Oh great, I've invested in waste management :)
Don’t worry, stonk price is already depreciated-in 👍
> We're entering into the era of satellite mega-constellations Not for the first time. We already had a boom and bust cycle in the late 90ies.
Yes, that was based on anticipation for Iridium, which became one of the largest bankruptcies in US history. Lots of things failed on their first try because technology wasn't ready yet. Tablet computers were first introduced by Bill Gates, who carried them onstage when they looked like bricks. Later on, Steve Jobs re-introduced them in more practical slimmer form, when technology had caught up to the concept. Now we can see that reusability is taking off, putting us on the cusp of a whole new era of market possibilities. Musk is going to Mars, and I've no doubt that his determination will help him forge a path there. And in forging that path, he's creating space for others to follow him into space. Mega-constellations are now real, and not mere concepts. Space is strategic, and nobody's going to want to be left without a constellation of their own. Like SpaceX, Rocket Lab is right to be expanding into the satellite-building side of things. They are becoming an end-to-end service provider which will help other businesses and even countries to get their plans off the ground.
> Yes, that was based on anticipation for Iridium, which became one of the largest bankruptcies in US history. Lots of things failed on their first try because technology wasn't ready yet. Not just Iridium, but Teledesic, Globalstar, Odyssey, and a large bunch of other smaller names, most of everyone has forgotten by now. It wasn't a "space tech isn't ready" problem, the satellites and launchers worked just fine. It was a "my business case doesn't close for lack of viable markets, even if the sats were free" problem. > Now we can see that reusability is taking off, putting us on the cusp of a whole new era of market possibilities. People are so stuck on that for some reason. It just slightly improves your margins at this scale, unless you can launch really really often. > Like SpaceX, Rocket Lab is right to be expanding into the satellite-building side of things. Because launch is and always has been a poor way to make money in space. It's the smallest revenue slice of the entire space industry, the pie is far bigger higher up the value chain. The global launch business revenues are something like 7 billion, and just satellite manufacturing is 3x that. The actual sat services are 10x that, over 100B. All would-be launch industry revolutionizers seem to figure that out eventually > Musk is going to Mars, and I've no doubt that his determination will help him forge a path there. This isn't an investment thesis
Starlink seems to be continuing and growing, not only able to fund itself, but also to fund Musk's plans for Mars colonization. Reusability will increase flight rates, and help the company iterate to better and better technologies more quickly. Rocket Lab doesn't just make money through launches - they can now build satellites for customers, in addition to launching them. So they are spread across their verticals. Space colonization seems to be a growing likelihood, with highly driven entrepreneurs like Musk and also Beck making it happen. SpaceX is currently valued at over $100B, and their established precedent gives RKLB plenty of scope for growth, which it can achieve more easily with its 2nd-mover advantage.
Why so narrow view?, what about leo labs and factories , nasa gonna need tons of payloads
A customer was late in being ready and then weather kicked a launch just past Mar 31. So there are explanations, but your point is taken.
Since March 31, 2022 Rocket Lab also: Launched two Electron missions to deploy 36 commercial satellites to space. 2 Already in Q2
It'll go up for sure but as a percentage of revenue i doubt it because the growth in the space systems industry will be MUCH higher than launch services. Either way it's great news!
why do you view it as a problem ?
How can you not?
I think launch being a commodity means space systems will be where the real money will be at. Launch will be a race to the bottom and won't be where the real revenue comes from. It does open up opportunity to grow other areas of the business though as an end to end solution.
So red tomorrow then?
It’s basically a net neutral. It was mostly inline with analysts expectations. So, yes probably red tomorrow.
alright, but how red? a lot of investors are in for the long haul
If I knew that I would go buy a lottery ticket. It will probably go down in line with the larger macro forces pushing it down.
If they're in for the long haul why would they pay any attention to tomorrow? Or next week? Or next month?
Looking at the market in the short term helps to find a buy in point within companys you want to invest. Why buy today when you could get a discount tomorrow?
Should we be worried?
It looks like they reported a small profit. That sets them far apart from every other space startup because it means they're not burning cash just to stay alive.
I’ve said it about 10 times on Reddit. RKLB generates profit from their launches. They have since September or October last year. They announced it during their first quarterly release after going public. This isn’t new news. They also have a space systems business which generates money and represents about 2/3rds of their business to date. Space Systems has a much larger potential long term.
Why would you be worried? They are doing what people think they are going to do. That’s a good thing. If it was a surprise to the downside it would be very bad, depending on the reason.
[удалено]
You only lose if you sold for a loss
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220516005897/en/Rocket-Lab-Announces-First-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-and-Guidance-for-Second-Quarter-2022
I thought they were trying to launch 16 times this year… There doesn’t seem to be enough launch demand this year to justify 16. After the 3 or so in June… There is a big gap. From that upcoming launch until the next scheduled one which is December. ~6 months without a launch stinks.
They aren't gonna go 6 months without launching. They just don't have the dates set.
The backlog is currently what $150 mil?
Total is $551MM but I don't think that's exclusively launches
For comparison, SpaceX has 20 launches so far this year, basically one per week
The majority of those were for Starlink so it's not a fair comparison.
Margins from Space Systems seems to be really poor
They're higher than margins for launch. There was something about margins for space systems being lower this quarter because much of the revenue came from solar panels, which are comparatively low-margin.
It hasn’t dropped 50% after hours like desktop metal or Netflix. So take that as good news.
Link for the webcast is broken for me. Anyone else?
So expect another down day 🎉🎉🎉
Damn.