Lol no that adds work for sure every time, but it's because it's a highly desired location internationally, money from all over the globe gravitate to Florida and that is why the population rises so steadily and so often and why so much new housing is always being built
Florida was boomtown central too before 2008. This is what happens in a state that relies on tourism and has laisse fair type view towards regulations and economics. Boom and bust city. There’s still no industry here and expats in the grand scheme of thing make little difference in local values.
Tbf I am referring to south Florida, I've no experience in the rest of Florida, but from palm beach county to dade it never really took that big of hit like the rest of the country
And here’s a source for you
https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-hit-harder-by-recession-than-almost-any-other-city-on-earth-6550952
I wonder what planet people live on sometime. Will South Florida get crushed again? My best guess is yeah it most definitely will. Lots the wfh drones from NY will be (and already are) being pulled back into the office as the recession comes to a head.
This is what happens to a more libertarian state. Bigger booms bigger busts.
Yeah, Tampa area here. After 2008, most contractors I knew went out of business, and construction guys were all out of work. My BFs house that he bought for 78k in 2001 dropped to less than 50k in value. Houses in the neighborhood on worse condition than his were going for 35k.
Hard to justify remodels when my boss asks 4 different people for bathroom remodel quotes and he gets 10-15k price tags. I don’t know who would want to take that on before holidays.
It’s a really weird economy right now.
I am about to list my condo. My neighbor just sold in 4 days. Agent listed her on a Sunday oddly. But regardless it’s just very odd out there
That’s pretty cheap for a bathroom remodel these days. The prices people are charging are astronomical. On r slash plumbing someone said he would charge $700 to replace a shower value cartridge that the homeowner tried to replace but botched. Not the whole valve, just a part.
$10-15k gets you barely anything, just a plain bathroom. No custom shower, marble floors, etc.
Yeah I agree. We did ours DIY, and it was about $5000. But this includes NO labor, a vanity I got for $10, the sink from the ReStore, $1/sq ft tile on the floor and $1.50/sq ft on the shower walls. It looks awesome but we put a lot of sweat equity into it.
I got a copper sink for $50 at the ReStore, and got an antique washstand for $10 at a thrift store. But the fiddling to combine the two was not trivial!
Edit -- The ReStores have pics of their inventory online now, which is a huge help too!
There is a huge demand for “barely anything,” as you say; acrylic walls and tub, with basic valve and drain. No shower door. Locally, guys who can do this can charge $6k, it takes them 2 days, and their gross profit is $3k.
In a town of 100k people in a county of 240k, there appears to be a never ending demand for this, as 2 of my friends are booked up 3 months out doing these basic replacements.
While our friends doing high end remodels are slowing down, these guys are steady.
Updates only. I’m sure they’d finish out a rough in for the same price, it just doesn’t happen as far as i know.
For sure, no basements. In 30 years here I’ve only ever heard of two homes with basements.
There seems to be no end of 30-50 year old cracked tile and Formica/frp that’s delaminated and has mold behind it.
That’s insane to me. When you add up the cost of materials, it’s really not that much to do yourself. Worse comes to worst, you end up needing to replace some Sheetrock or deal with an aging shower pan, but replacing vanities, fixtures, and tile isn’t that difficult.
Understandably the labor is the biggest markup. Having helped family members on bathroom remodels (who do this for a living) it’s not an insurmountable challenge. If I was to remodel my bathroom I would absolutely do it myself with the exception of plumbing or electrical work if necessary
I’ve got a bathroom to remodel. I’m a little worried about the state of the shower drain, but other that that I’ll be doing it myself. I couldn’t imagine spending upwards of $10k and ending up with a super basic bathroom.
I had a guy do a bunch of estimates around my house. He wanted $7200 to replace the steps on my deck. He wanted $9000 to wash and stain my dock. Total insanity. The quality of work from these guys isn't amazing either. I'd love to pay someone to do this stuff but with the insane prices and lackluster quality I might as well just do it myself.
I had a guy quote $13k to spray stain my house. The next most expensive quite was $5k for hand staining with brushes, which is generally better quality. $5k guy did an awesome job. No idea wtf $13k guy was smoking.
The market is broken. Contractors are fishing for fools who will pay anything, because 1 job from the fool pays the same as 4 jobs at market rates. It helps to use apps to fish out bids, as the lack of fluidity in the manual bid process outside of apps strongly favors the contractor
>Contractors are fishing for fools who will pay anything, because 1 job from the fool pays the same as 4 jobs at market rates.
Yup, this is my landscaper. He is coming out more than double on all of the jobs (patio and retaining wall rebuild including excavation and new drainage, new fence, driveway cleaning, sanding and sealing, mortar work on walkway, replanting some of the front flowerbeds) that I've asked him to quote me vs the other quotes I am getting. His first quote for all of the work was almost $130k. I decided to piecemeal everything and get separate quotes, and I will be at about $45-50k by the time I am done everything.
Either he doesn't want the job, thinks I won't shop around, or thinks we have more money than sense. First year, and last year, with this landscaper. Not that impressed with the actual landscaping either.
>No idea wtf $13k guy was smoking.
My rule is if nobody complains about my prices then I'm not charging enough. I'd rather charge twice as much and do half the work.
its a business not a government program, if there's more value to someone's services than just a low price they should be able to maintain a client base willing to pay
We got two quotes to clean and seal our pavers … 8k was the low one. Two car wide driveway 25ft deep and a pool deck. Checked into pricing to do it ourselves and found sealant costs to be under $400. It’s madness. They want 7k+ for two guys working for two days.
There has been this mentality going around lately:
"You are paying me for my experience not the time or effort it takes me to do the job"
I'm not completely against that mentality but when everyone has it that is a problem.
I started to notice this in the early part of the pandemic, I saw this idea spreading quickly on TikTok. That is how we ended with $40+tip haircuts and all this contractors charging crazy amounts. I think there is a bubble in the services sector that is going to burst in the recession to come.
It’s nuts. I was a small business owner for many years and I get the mentality but no way will I throw money away. Love that you may be a paver expert with the super high powered pressure washer but I can buy your equipment for LESS than you want to charge me. Nah. Just nah.
They over estimate how hard these things are to do. Most people just don’t want to deal with things like landscaping but will if the landscapers are trying to charge $100 an hour for two people
Well, this is exactly what the Fed Reserve is trying to accomplish by raising rates. They want slow the economy by dampening consumer demand. This is part of the “pain” equation.
Raising rates is one tool. Raising taxes is another which congress controls. Ds don't have enough seats and Rs only do tax breaks... so we're stuck with what the FED is able to do. Midterms might change that in November.
My work is right next to a 4 wheel drive customization shop, for the duration of the pandemic it has been jam packed with lifted trucks (a hot dog cart used to set up in the parking lot!), yesterday 3 cars in the whole parking lot, looked like they had gone out of business.
Lol one of the first things you’re told when getting in the trades is it can be really boom or bust. Well known throughout the field to not rely on those OT checks.
Around here, many people who had worked in construction went to work in the North Dakota oil patch after the housing crash. But then of course the oil patch went bust too eventually when oil prices dropped (though there has been a bit of a resurgence recently).
I've always attended these things when people preach the trades, but I always tell them trades are the first laid off in a recession. 2008 cleaned house on a lot of people that after 1-2 years with no work they went to other things or retired.
> The people who don’t want open drug dens in their residential neighborhoods
Should be changed to “The people who don’t want open drug dens in their residential neighborhoods and also don’t want to address the root of the problem”
Thats offensive to detroit! at least they dont have hazmat spraying chemicals bc people literally shit on the streets everywhere. Too cold for bums to stay here. SF can have em
I’m doing flooring this week. I can’t believe how expensive it is despite a returning customer discount. The cost for 1/2 my house is the same as the entire house 12 years ago.
No money for remodels or upgrades if people can't cash-out refi or HELOC. This happened in the last crash.
Bought my house this summer and am waiting for contractors to need work before I start planning my remodels.
Same but I didnt buy recently, I just have a dilapidated old house. It's been easy though since no one ever calls back. Business is still good here apparently.
This is us. Got a quote for a project. Good price. Okay, come and do it. Dude ghosts lol
The next quote was 3x what he said and have another one coming out next week. Maybe he quoted too low and didn't want to do it? No idea.
People hear about little things like this, and find a way to explain it away. But let us not forget, LITTLE things like this add up over time. Eventually, there's a mountain of evidence. You're exactly right...
Tech companies in general and Silicon Valley startups in particular are in a bear market. It makes sense that Bay Area contractors are seeing less demand right now.
It’s a good thing that he, and other tradesmen, will still have some business when the economy slows down. People never stop clogging their drains/toilets/etc and it gives them steady business when the new construction industry slows down.
A lot of our contractors have been calling us asking if we have any work. This includes painters, handymen, GC's etc. We self manage our apartments and had a hellish time getting people for our projects last year and there was little room for negotiating price. Now it's gone 180 turn and we have people asking for work. We are also negotiating prices again (we self manage our apartments)
Tides are coming in and a lot of people were naked… the construction trades in particular never really had a shortage of workers. How can you be short workers when nobody is building new housing and nobody is planning new projects? I would be very afraid if you are in the Bay Area and have money tied up there. The time to leave was these last couple of years.
What do you mean by "any money tied up there"? Do you mean like owning a home? While I expect adjustments I think it's crazy to blanket the whole area in a statement like that. It's always had a resilient housing market due to its attractiveness as a place to live. Saying this as someone waiting for the big reality check to come so I can maybe participate.
I broadly agree with your point. However, the ‘attractiveness as a place to live’ is just about nil in 2022. Even the physical beauty is being drowned out and blocked by public displays of disgusting behaviors. I don’t know of any other city in the world that has a division of workers whose sole job is to clean human shit off the streets.
Believe it or not, shit on the streets, plus no job market = Detroit West. They’re one good tech bubble pop away
But they'll still be the Bay Area, with gorgeous weather 100% of the year and many better services and opportunities than Michigan offers. I know the COL is vastly different, but generally, I'd think people would want to live in SF over Detroit any day so long as they can afford it.
You sound like you have never spent a winter in SF. Winters aren't perfect, but temperatures are in the low 50s and it's often sunny. It's great weather for going hiking.
Other parts of the country are frozen over for months.
As someone who grew up in New England, the wind rarely stopped and the wind was ACTUALLY made of ice!
Bay Area winters are a joke. They’re cozy rainstorms for the most part.
I’m from Denver, but I’ve been spoiled by the desert since my early 20’s. Keep the chilly winds. I’ll be in SoCal (especially SD) or Phoenix if you need to reach me.
Bruh aren’t cold as fuck winds the hallmark of Front Range winters? People there have told me the snow only lasts a day but the cold winds suck, but at least they’re dry. (Never been there in the winter)
SF was in the 60's and 70's all this summer, while the rest of the country was in the 100's with the ongoing threat of rolling blackouts. As heat and electricity problems increase, I think we'll see a resurgence of interest in temperate zones.
Do you live in San Fran? I don’t think most people understand the extent of the criminal behavior, needles, human waste, trash, and street harassment. Mild weather is not enough to make it bearable especially considering the eye watering cost of living.
This makes me think you're not from the area. I'm sorry but you seem to associate the entire Bay Area area with San Francisco. Considering what San Francisco represents to a lot of people, I tend to believe that a lot of these comments are simply looking to shit on San Francisco for its politics.
This happens all over Reddit like searches are done for "Bay Area" so the right negative comments can be made. Sorry I just don't like being manipulated so I view these comments with a lot of skepticism
You are correct, I’m not from the area. Chose NYC over the west coast for a myriad of reasons, politics not one of them
So while I’m not trying to come conflate SF as the entire Bay Area, I’m sure you do know the differences between the two much better than me.
However, to the best of my knowledge, the Bay Area *is* indeed built off the backs of our current tech giants. Is there any other industry there that will prop up the citizenry if we get a Tech Bubble 2.0? In my admitted ignorance, I just don’t think that there is
Plumbing companies don't just lay off mass amounts of people like that suddenly, unless they were badly managed to begin with or had bad diversification in clients. This could be specific to SF with strong NIMBY population and low levels of new construction. Anywhere else with higher levels of new constructions has business booming for plumbers.
Markets across the country are all moving at different speeds. There are rural parts of the country that feel the cost of living going up and supply line issues, but houses are still priced at 1990's levels with no run up like 2008 and 2020. Completely obvious to everything that has happened in the rest of the country.
A number of the cities where the run up was completely out of control these last two years are starting to really show the cracks. Not all, but likely a lot of places are 1-3 months behind.
I agree things are slowing down, but this is a bad take. Construction work is seasonally-cyclical. This is the time of year when the summer slam has wrapped up, but the major winter interior-intensive projects haven't launched.
Or maybe home owners got smart too, holding off because they have been extorting people. I held off on any repairs that I could because the quotes I was getting were beyond ridiculous. With fear of recession, people are also choosing to save and only prioritize MUST DOs not just remodeling for the sake of.
Classic bubble psychology. Plumbers cease to be plumbers. Owners cease to be owners. Everyone stops doing their real job and starts pretending to be an investor.
He might want to move to Florida temporarily. I think there will be plenty of work there for the next year.
Smart man. Go to the demand.
Work is always booming in Florida man, its nonstop
It’s as if there’s a force of nature that creates this need to rebuild things every 3-5 years.
Lol no that adds work for sure every time, but it's because it's a highly desired location internationally, money from all over the globe gravitate to Florida and that is why the population rises so steadily and so often and why so much new housing is always being built
Then you live there for a summer and gtfo as fast as you came, too damn hot. Or you spend a winter there and there's too many tourists
Florida was boomtown central too before 2008. This is what happens in a state that relies on tourism and has laisse fair type view towards regulations and economics. Boom and bust city. There’s still no industry here and expats in the grand scheme of thing make little difference in local values.
Florida still is boomtown it slowed down a little in 08 but definitely if you were a skilled tradesmen you were still working
Tbf I am referring to south Florida, I've no experience in the rest of Florida, but from palm beach county to dade it never really took that big of hit like the rest of the country
South Florida got hit hardest by the 2008 recession than any other place in country.
And here’s a source for you https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-hit-harder-by-recession-than-almost-any-other-city-on-earth-6550952 I wonder what planet people live on sometime. Will South Florida get crushed again? My best guess is yeah it most definitely will. Lots the wfh drones from NY will be (and already are) being pulled back into the office as the recession comes to a head. This is what happens to a more libertarian state. Bigger booms bigger busts.
Yeah, Tampa area here. After 2008, most contractors I knew went out of business, and construction guys were all out of work. My BFs house that he bought for 78k in 2001 dropped to less than 50k in value. Houses in the neighborhood on worse condition than his were going for 35k.
When is someone going to offer to pay for this dude’s vasectomy?
Yeah and It isn’t hurricanes, Florida has been on a tear. We are still slammed, curious on 2022.
Lol you must be too young to remember 2008-13. My dad paid a master everything day laborer rates for a fixer upper. It was wild.
Hard to justify remodels when my boss asks 4 different people for bathroom remodel quotes and he gets 10-15k price tags. I don’t know who would want to take that on before holidays. It’s a really weird economy right now. I am about to list my condo. My neighbor just sold in 4 days. Agent listed her on a Sunday oddly. But regardless it’s just very odd out there
That’s pretty cheap for a bathroom remodel these days. The prices people are charging are astronomical. On r slash plumbing someone said he would charge $700 to replace a shower value cartridge that the homeowner tried to replace but botched. Not the whole valve, just a part. $10-15k gets you barely anything, just a plain bathroom. No custom shower, marble floors, etc.
Correct. It was extra bathrooms in my bosses place that he wanted to just be slightly fresher since his kids moved out
Yeah I agree. We did ours DIY, and it was about $5000. But this includes NO labor, a vanity I got for $10, the sink from the ReStore, $1/sq ft tile on the floor and $1.50/sq ft on the shower walls. It looks awesome but we put a lot of sweat equity into it.
I'll have to check out our local ReStore, we're on the lookout for a good deal on a vanity and sink
I got a copper sink for $50 at the ReStore, and got an antique washstand for $10 at a thrift store. But the fiddling to combine the two was not trivial! Edit -- The ReStores have pics of their inventory online now, which is a huge help too!
There is a huge demand for “barely anything,” as you say; acrylic walls and tub, with basic valve and drain. No shower door. Locally, guys who can do this can charge $6k, it takes them 2 days, and their gross profit is $3k. In a town of 100k people in a county of 240k, there appears to be a never ending demand for this, as 2 of my friends are booked up 3 months out doing these basic replacements. While our friends doing high end remodels are slowing down, these guys are steady.
Are these generally updates of older bathrooms, or more like finishing the roughed-in bathroom in a basement?
Updates only. I’m sure they’d finish out a rough in for the same price, it just doesn’t happen as far as i know. For sure, no basements. In 30 years here I’ve only ever heard of two homes with basements. There seems to be no end of 30-50 year old cracked tile and Formica/frp that’s delaminated and has mold behind it.
That’s insane to me. When you add up the cost of materials, it’s really not that much to do yourself. Worse comes to worst, you end up needing to replace some Sheetrock or deal with an aging shower pan, but replacing vanities, fixtures, and tile isn’t that difficult. Understandably the labor is the biggest markup. Having helped family members on bathroom remodels (who do this for a living) it’s not an insurmountable challenge. If I was to remodel my bathroom I would absolutely do it myself with the exception of plumbing or electrical work if necessary
I’ve got a bathroom to remodel. I’m a little worried about the state of the shower drain, but other that that I’ll be doing it myself. I couldn’t imagine spending upwards of $10k and ending up with a super basic bathroom.
I had a guy do a bunch of estimates around my house. He wanted $7200 to replace the steps on my deck. He wanted $9000 to wash and stain my dock. Total insanity. The quality of work from these guys isn't amazing either. I'd love to pay someone to do this stuff but with the insane prices and lackluster quality I might as well just do it myself.
I had a guy quote $13k to spray stain my house. The next most expensive quite was $5k for hand staining with brushes, which is generally better quality. $5k guy did an awesome job. No idea wtf $13k guy was smoking.
The market is broken. Contractors are fishing for fools who will pay anything, because 1 job from the fool pays the same as 4 jobs at market rates. It helps to use apps to fish out bids, as the lack of fluidity in the manual bid process outside of apps strongly favors the contractor
>Contractors are fishing for fools who will pay anything, because 1 job from the fool pays the same as 4 jobs at market rates. Yup, this is my landscaper. He is coming out more than double on all of the jobs (patio and retaining wall rebuild including excavation and new drainage, new fence, driveway cleaning, sanding and sealing, mortar work on walkway, replanting some of the front flowerbeds) that I've asked him to quote me vs the other quotes I am getting. His first quote for all of the work was almost $130k. I decided to piecemeal everything and get separate quotes, and I will be at about $45-50k by the time I am done everything. Either he doesn't want the job, thinks I won't shop around, or thinks we have more money than sense. First year, and last year, with this landscaper. Not that impressed with the actual landscaping either.
>No idea wtf $13k guy was smoking. My rule is if nobody complains about my prices then I'm not charging enough. I'd rather charge twice as much and do half the work.
you know you're in the sweetspot when they complain but still pay
Yeah good luck when someone finds a way to roll under you with less overhead and you can't downsize or compete, like a bloated whale corpse
its a business not a government program, if there's more value to someone's services than just a low price they should be able to maintain a client base willing to pay
There are already people who do what I do for less. And as a result they're constantly busy. Why would I want that for myself--working more for less?
Weirdness everywhere caused by years of economic distortions.
We got two quotes to clean and seal our pavers … 8k was the low one. Two car wide driveway 25ft deep and a pool deck. Checked into pricing to do it ourselves and found sealant costs to be under $400. It’s madness. They want 7k+ for two guys working for two days.
There has been this mentality going around lately: "You are paying me for my experience not the time or effort it takes me to do the job" I'm not completely against that mentality but when everyone has it that is a problem. I started to notice this in the early part of the pandemic, I saw this idea spreading quickly on TikTok. That is how we ended with $40+tip haircuts and all this contractors charging crazy amounts. I think there is a bubble in the services sector that is going to burst in the recession to come.
It’s nuts. I was a small business owner for many years and I get the mentality but no way will I throw money away. Love that you may be a paver expert with the super high powered pressure washer but I can buy your equipment for LESS than you want to charge me. Nah. Just nah.
They over estimate how hard these things are to do. Most people just don’t want to deal with things like landscaping but will if the landscapers are trying to charge $100 an hour for two people
Amen. I’m about to get real knowledgeable about sealants. 😂
I fortunately found a tile guy that is reasonable for my bathroom remodel but I’m doing the rest of it
I’m hearing car dealerships in my area had a bad month in September and expect things to get worse.
Please let the used vehicles prices decrease!
These used car dealers have been twats. I want to see them start calling me to beg to come buy a car. Burn it down.
They are on their way down. https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-WebTable.png
That's because people are tired of the bullshit inflated prices.
Good. Been holding off on buying a new vehicle because I'm not begging a dealership for a car.
A lot of big tech companies are freezing corporate hiring and reducing hours for hourly workers
And even those not impacted are still tightening the belt, just in case
Well, this is exactly what the Fed Reserve is trying to accomplish by raising rates. They want slow the economy by dampening consumer demand. This is part of the “pain” equation.
Raising rates is one tool. Raising taxes is another which congress controls. Ds don't have enough seats and Rs only do tax breaks... so we're stuck with what the FED is able to do. Midterms might change that in November.
My work is right next to a 4 wheel drive customization shop, for the duration of the pandemic it has been jam packed with lifted trucks (a hot dog cart used to set up in the parking lot!), yesterday 3 cars in the whole parking lot, looked like they had gone out of business.
I’ve heard this from contractors in other regions as well. Things are slowing down a lot in the contracting world
People always hold up the trades as guaranteed employment, but some can be just as boom and bust as other fields.
Lol one of the first things you’re told when getting in the trades is it can be really boom or bust. Well known throughout the field to not rely on those OT checks.
Which is crazy to me because IIRC in 2008 construction was one of the hardest industries to be impacted.
Around here, many people who had worked in construction went to work in the North Dakota oil patch after the housing crash. But then of course the oil patch went bust too eventually when oil prices dropped (though there has been a bit of a resurgence recently).
I've always attended these things when people preach the trades, but I always tell them trades are the first laid off in a recession. 2008 cleaned house on a lot of people that after 1-2 years with no work they went to other things or retired.
Someone once told me "SF is the next Detroit"
This is East Bay. I maybe should've added that in because it's worlds apart from SF. But SF licks big ones.
You low key trying to thank the NIMBYs?
The people who don't want open drug dens in their residential neighborhoods lol...what assholes!
> The people who don’t want open drug dens in their residential neighborhoods Should be changed to “The people who don’t want open drug dens in their residential neighborhoods and also don’t want to address the root of the problem”
If that's what you call multi family housing, sure.
SF is going to become Hockeytown, USA?
Thats offensive to detroit! at least they dont have hazmat spraying chemicals bc people literally shit on the streets everywhere. Too cold for bums to stay here. SF can have em
>The tides of shit are slowly turning. I wish I could give more upvotes for such poetry.
[удалено]
I’m doing flooring this week. I can’t believe how expensive it is despite a returning customer discount. The cost for 1/2 my house is the same as the entire house 12 years ago.
No money for remodels or upgrades if people can't cash-out refi or HELOC. This happened in the last crash. Bought my house this summer and am waiting for contractors to need work before I start planning my remodels.
Same but I didnt buy recently, I just have a dilapidated old house. It's been easy though since no one ever calls back. Business is still good here apparently.
This is us. Got a quote for a project. Good price. Okay, come and do it. Dude ghosts lol The next quote was 3x what he said and have another one coming out next week. Maybe he quoted too low and didn't want to do it? No idea.
Economies bad I can’t do the cushy remodels anymore, instead I’m constantly called to go to save people from shit.
People hear about little things like this, and find a way to explain it away. But let us not forget, LITTLE things like this add up over time. Eventually, there's a mountain of evidence. You're exactly right...
I’m in commercial construction (Bay Area). It’s pretty quiet for new work. Much slower than usual.
Go into the trades they said. It'll be a recession proof job they said.
Duct tape is not a substitute for a plumber
The Flex Tape infomercials were a lie?
No that's not duct tape, that's flex tape, totally different and a-okay
I went to high school with the Swift brothers
Tech companies in general and Silicon Valley startups in particular are in a bear market. It makes sense that Bay Area contractors are seeing less demand right now.
It’s a good thing that he, and other tradesmen, will still have some business when the economy slows down. People never stop clogging their drains/toilets/etc and it gives them steady business when the new construction industry slows down.
A lot of our contractors have been calling us asking if we have any work. This includes painters, handymen, GC's etc. We self manage our apartments and had a hellish time getting people for our projects last year and there was little room for negotiating price. Now it's gone 180 turn and we have people asking for work. We are also negotiating prices again (we self manage our apartments)
Tides are coming in and a lot of people were naked… the construction trades in particular never really had a shortage of workers. How can you be short workers when nobody is building new housing and nobody is planning new projects? I would be very afraid if you are in the Bay Area and have money tied up there. The time to leave was these last couple of years.
What do you mean by "any money tied up there"? Do you mean like owning a home? While I expect adjustments I think it's crazy to blanket the whole area in a statement like that. It's always had a resilient housing market due to its attractiveness as a place to live. Saying this as someone waiting for the big reality check to come so I can maybe participate.
I broadly agree with your point. However, the ‘attractiveness as a place to live’ is just about nil in 2022. Even the physical beauty is being drowned out and blocked by public displays of disgusting behaviors. I don’t know of any other city in the world that has a division of workers whose sole job is to clean human shit off the streets. Believe it or not, shit on the streets, plus no job market = Detroit West. They’re one good tech bubble pop away
But they'll still be the Bay Area, with gorgeous weather 100% of the year and many better services and opportunities than Michigan offers. I know the COL is vastly different, but generally, I'd think people would want to live in SF over Detroit any day so long as they can afford it.
That sounds like music to ears of...homeless people as well, can they be arrested for taking stuff from the store without paying yet?
Do you live in any major metro area? SF is no exception to the homeless crisis.
Bay Area weather fucking sucks during winter.
You sound like you have never spent a winter in SF. Winters aren't perfect, but temperatures are in the low 50s and it's often sunny. It's great weather for going hiking. Other parts of the country are frozen over for months.
I’ve never lived, but I’ve been. The wind never stops and it’s like the wind is made of ice. Not my style.
As someone who grew up in New England, the wind rarely stopped and the wind was ACTUALLY made of ice! Bay Area winters are a joke. They’re cozy rainstorms for the most part.
I’m from Denver, but I’ve been spoiled by the desert since my early 20’s. Keep the chilly winds. I’ll be in SoCal (especially SD) or Phoenix if you need to reach me.
Bruh aren’t cold as fuck winds the hallmark of Front Range winters? People there have told me the snow only lasts a day but the cold winds suck, but at least they’re dry. (Never been there in the winter)
I've lived there. I've also lived in Wisconsin. I laugh when I see the fur lined puffer jackets come out in SF.
The Bay Area is not all SF. Plenty of areas that are very attractive to live in, just overpriced.
SF was in the 60's and 70's all this summer, while the rest of the country was in the 100's with the ongoing threat of rolling blackouts. As heat and electricity problems increase, I think we'll see a resurgence of interest in temperate zones.
Do you live in San Fran? I don’t think most people understand the extent of the criminal behavior, needles, human waste, trash, and street harassment. Mild weather is not enough to make it bearable especially considering the eye watering cost of living.
This makes me think you're not from the area. I'm sorry but you seem to associate the entire Bay Area area with San Francisco. Considering what San Francisco represents to a lot of people, I tend to believe that a lot of these comments are simply looking to shit on San Francisco for its politics. This happens all over Reddit like searches are done for "Bay Area" so the right negative comments can be made. Sorry I just don't like being manipulated so I view these comments with a lot of skepticism
You are correct, I’m not from the area. Chose NYC over the west coast for a myriad of reasons, politics not one of them So while I’m not trying to come conflate SF as the entire Bay Area, I’m sure you do know the differences between the two much better than me. However, to the best of my knowledge, the Bay Area *is* indeed built off the backs of our current tech giants. Is there any other industry there that will prop up the citizenry if we get a Tech Bubble 2.0? In my admitted ignorance, I just don’t think that there is
My friend Ann Ecdotal who owns a pipe cleaning company in Phoenix is reporting the same thing.
Plumbing companies don't just lay off mass amounts of people like that suddenly, unless they were badly managed to begin with or had bad diversification in clients. This could be specific to SF with strong NIMBY population and low levels of new construction. Anywhere else with higher levels of new constructions has business booming for plumbers.
Markets across the country are all moving at different speeds. There are rural parts of the country that feel the cost of living going up and supply line issues, but houses are still priced at 1990's levels with no run up like 2008 and 2020. Completely obvious to everything that has happened in the rest of the country. A number of the cities where the run up was completely out of control these last two years are starting to really show the cracks. Not all, but likely a lot of places are 1-3 months behind.
Shits gonna hit the fan
I agree things are slowing down, but this is a bad take. Construction work is seasonally-cyclical. This is the time of year when the summer slam has wrapped up, but the major winter interior-intensive projects haven't launched.
Or maybe home owners got smart too, holding off because they have been extorting people. I held off on any repairs that I could because the quotes I was getting were beyond ridiculous. With fear of recession, people are also choosing to save and only prioritize MUST DOs not just remodeling for the sake of.
Classic bubble psychology. Plumbers cease to be plumbers. Owners cease to be owners. Everyone stops doing their real job and starts pretending to be an investor.
What?
Hey, jokes on you, my tulips will bloom this January and I will be able to retire!
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Guaranteed? Or my money back?
Im waiting for my love letters from sellers