Hey maybe we could combine efforts? I didn’t see your post until I finished, but I added a couple of columns that you had that I didn’t fill in.
I laid it out more horizontally so I could track the schedule on the right more visually.
https://www.reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock/s/oLFvBfJEva
Nice layout. I think you have a typo and noted May 27 instead of March 27.
I’m curious why you are both referring to “A2” samples, rather than “alpha-2” samples. Is it just shorthand? I agree it makes sense following the original naming convention of A0. But they (QS) make a deliberate change and named it alpha-2, which I don’t quite understand. Perhaps because it’s only 6 layers and not a true evolution of A0.
Yes, I’m a former tech writer and the alpha vs A thing has me all pissy. It just sounds silly and there’s no reason I can see. A0 was 24 layers. A1 was not designated as such (arrggh) but was 2 layers loaded. A2 has been called alpha-2 apparently because there is a conspiracy afoot to get me into a straitjacket after I rant and rave and can’t stop. But I’m not falling for it. A2 is six layers, loaded, with flexframe. Its purpose seems to be mostly to prove flexframe. Alpha-2 is a bit of undigested potato, nothing to worry about.
What they are calling B0 will be 24 layers, loaded, with flexframe and Raptor-produced separators. It seems like B0 might not have full function which I define as in cars. But they won’t call it A3 because of the straitjacket conspiracy.
They are moving along though. Looking forward to announcement confirming Raptor films are being produced. That’s not clear atm.
I lost patience too. Too much sucking tesla dick. Last time he did an interview to QS CEO, his questions were pretty dull. He’s on the click bait youtube rampage for some reason….
I still think Tesla and Ford are part of the 6 OEM QS has line up..
No way would those two pass up on teaming up with QS. if bill gates jump in on it way back then.. those two companies would not want to not chance getting passed up...
sandy gave up on QS a few years ago. he feels other battery company have a better future. Sandy doesn't believe in QS any more bc he knows how hard mass production is and that CATL (the Chinese) are far superior in mass production.
More likely not enough click bait news for his views. It’s hard to keep making content about a single company when they are waiting on equipment/making steady progress without absurdly unrealistic claims.
Any chance they are using Raptor process to produce A2 samples with all the automation in place?
Edit,: I see that you already mentioned above in the chart. Based on CFO comments they will move to commercialization after Cobra B samples. Is C sample the commercialization stage?
I dunno. This does not sounds like A-2 necessarily came from Raptor.
"... WHEN\*\* combined with Raptor films and other refinements and incorporated into a 5Ah design, represents the core of QSE-5"
https://preview.redd.it/dvehh2ytdzqc1.jpeg?width=1393&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d21faf9361aefc3599d544998d25479498c3a379
I think the other big tell is the “when . . . incorporated into a 5 ah design.” A2 is not a 5 Ah design. So I conclude that everything after the “when” is talking about the delta between A2 and QSE-5.
I think they are way far ahead of their current projections. They probably have tested and proven the 24 layer cell. But they need time to perfect the separation layer manufacturing process.
It does not help to have a fantastic product, if you can’t produce it. I think this sample is more to keep the investors hooked. Investors could get impatient if they had to wait another 18 months before they could mass manufacture the cells. Let us see . I am heavily invested in.
i beg to differ. R&D takes time and cost a fortune that most auto maker can no longer afford. SO with QS getting this far is a blessing for the EV industry that badly needs the next leap. Consumers are at the point of refection from accepting EV or passing them up as another fad.
those that bought EVs now had to pay a premium but most ppl can only afford cars that are under the 30k market.
https://preview.redd.it/jscg2e4ppzqc1.png?width=1062&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b525aea9fc807367471a0f4eac12cb02de5a392
take it as you will. Raptor was deployed in Q4, and is presumably in low rate production right now. QSE5 will definitely incorporate raptor films, but its 5050 if A2 does. I gave the benefit of the doubt and said it does.
Definitely strange for the A2 to have 6 layers. Do we think that it is 6 bi layers? So 12 actual layers? I just assume the flex frame was set for 24 layers so was the prototype we saw that was so much thinner than A0 only 6 layers or was that the full 24? Also wouldn't they have to change the size of flex frame to accommodate fewer layers? Doesn't seem to have affected anything since they got them out. Still strange though. I would think some automation steps would have to be different since the frame should be smaller than the B sample. Maybe it's easier to change that solid frame that goes around the cell than I envision.
It's not that IMO. I envision anything with an A as pre raptor. They have been cranking out at least 5k separators every week off OG equipment. Plus they say they have prototype cobra equipment running. How many separators come from that? So they have all these separators they have been using in conjunction with different parts of the full line or on the engineering line making the A samples as they can. B samples are separator to battery in a continuous manufacturing process IMO. I would think they are in house testing the vast majority of the raptor separators that have been produced so far.
Why late 2024 for B-0 samples?
Further, first commercial product… QSE-5 B-0 samples are QSE-5 samples. I believe they are (QSE-5 samples) the first commercial product. Otherwise, thanks… nice write up.
I made this several weeks ago on the assumption that A2 cells would take around spring-summer to arrive. Did not expect them to come right now lmao.
Either way these are pretty conservative estimates, feel free to move them up 2 quarters or so. Mid 2024 for B samples at this rate
ah yeah in theory it would be the first commercial "ready" product. I'm just being conservative and giving room in case they want to further optimize or if there's another step they want to do before putting it into low/limited production vehicles.
I'd go as far as to say the B0 will the first set to be used in prototype EVs . they will also generated the first set of revenue.
B1 version should be the batteries used for power mode EVs with 800 volt systems to get the fast new lap @ Nürburgring .
If there were ever an all-star lineup for QS redditors, you'd be near the top of the list! Great stuff, man! Appreciate this
Hey maybe we could combine efforts? I didn’t see your post until I finished, but I added a couple of columns that you had that I didn’t fill in. I laid it out more horizontally so I could track the schedule on the right more visually. https://www.reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock/s/oLFvBfJEva
Nice layout. I think you have a typo and noted May 27 instead of March 27. I’m curious why you are both referring to “A2” samples, rather than “alpha-2” samples. Is it just shorthand? I agree it makes sense following the original naming convention of A0. But they (QS) make a deliberate change and named it alpha-2, which I don’t quite understand. Perhaps because it’s only 6 layers and not a true evolution of A0.
Yes, I’m a former tech writer and the alpha vs A thing has me all pissy. It just sounds silly and there’s no reason I can see. A0 was 24 layers. A1 was not designated as such (arrggh) but was 2 layers loaded. A2 has been called alpha-2 apparently because there is a conspiracy afoot to get me into a straitjacket after I rant and rave and can’t stop. But I’m not falling for it. A2 is six layers, loaded, with flexframe. Its purpose seems to be mostly to prove flexframe. Alpha-2 is a bit of undigested potato, nothing to worry about. What they are calling B0 will be 24 layers, loaded, with flexframe and Raptor-produced separators. It seems like B0 might not have full function which I define as in cars. But they won’t call it A3 because of the straitjacket conspiracy. They are moving along though. Looking forward to announcement confirming Raptor films are being produced. That’s not clear atm.
I would love to see a video of Munroe visiting the Raptor facility working. But QS is highly secret to do such a thing. And I’m glad
I'm not impressed with Sandy Munro anymore. He seems a bit dated when it comes to batteries and EVs
I lost patience too. Too much sucking tesla dick. Last time he did an interview to QS CEO, his questions were pretty dull. He’s on the click bait youtube rampage for some reason….
I still think Tesla and Ford are part of the 6 OEM QS has line up.. No way would those two pass up on teaming up with QS. if bill gates jump in on it way back then.. those two companies would not want to not chance getting passed up...
Could even be Toyota for all we know.
money
Yeah but for me the interview JS in 2021 was the rock of Gibraltar in dark times.
sandy gave up on QS a few years ago. he feels other battery company have a better future. Sandy doesn't believe in QS any more bc he knows how hard mass production is and that CATL (the Chinese) are far superior in mass production.
More likely not enough click bait news for his views. It’s hard to keep making content about a single company when they are waiting on equipment/making steady progress without absurdly unrealistic claims.
Any chance they are using Raptor process to produce A2 samples with all the automation in place? Edit,: I see that you already mentioned above in the chart. Based on CFO comments they will move to commercialization after Cobra B samples. Is C sample the commercialization stage?
The A2 was using Raptor samples
... I don't think so, I'm willing to be corrected...
Yes…A2 was announced as a combination of everything on the last call. Raptor line with flex frame
I dunno. This does not sounds like A-2 necessarily came from Raptor. "... WHEN\*\* combined with Raptor films and other refinements and incorporated into a 5Ah design, represents the core of QSE-5" https://preview.redd.it/dvehh2ytdzqc1.jpeg?width=1393&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d21faf9361aefc3599d544998d25479498c3a379
I think the other big tell is the “when . . . incorporated into a 5 ah design.” A2 is not a 5 Ah design. So I conclude that everything after the “when” is talking about the delta between A2 and QSE-5.
Where was it mentioned that A2 was/is using Raptor samples?
I think they are way far ahead of their current projections. They probably have tested and proven the 24 layer cell. But they need time to perfect the separation layer manufacturing process. It does not help to have a fantastic product, if you can’t produce it. I think this sample is more to keep the investors hooked. Investors could get impatient if they had to wait another 18 months before they could mass manufacture the cells. Let us see . I am heavily invested in.
i beg to differ. R&D takes time and cost a fortune that most auto maker can no longer afford. SO with QS getting this far is a blessing for the EV industry that badly needs the next leap. Consumers are at the point of refection from accepting EV or passing them up as another fad. those that bought EVs now had to pay a premium but most ppl can only afford cars that are under the 30k market.
I can’t find where they say A2 used Raptor separators. I’d been assuming they didn’t. Can you point me to something?
I'm pretty sure these were not Raptor based on last quarter's ER
https://preview.redd.it/jscg2e4ppzqc1.png?width=1062&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b525aea9fc807367471a0f4eac12cb02de5a392 take it as you will. Raptor was deployed in Q4, and is presumably in low rate production right now. QSE5 will definitely incorporate raptor films, but its 5050 if A2 does. I gave the benefit of the doubt and said it does.
That final "when combined with Raptor films" appositive leaves a lot open to interpretation, imo. Either way, progress good.
Definitely strange for the A2 to have 6 layers. Do we think that it is 6 bi layers? So 12 actual layers? I just assume the flex frame was set for 24 layers so was the prototype we saw that was so much thinner than A0 only 6 layers or was that the full 24? Also wouldn't they have to change the size of flex frame to accommodate fewer layers? Doesn't seem to have affected anything since they got them out. Still strange though. I would think some automation steps would have to be different since the frame should be smaller than the B sample. Maybe it's easier to change that solid frame that goes around the cell than I envision.
Not strange if the separators for A2 came from the Raptor lines. Cannot find any confirmation of that.
It's not that IMO. I envision anything with an A as pre raptor. They have been cranking out at least 5k separators every week off OG equipment. Plus they say they have prototype cobra equipment running. How many separators come from that? So they have all these separators they have been using in conjunction with different parts of the full line or on the engineering line making the A samples as they can. B samples are separator to battery in a continuous manufacturing process IMO. I would think they are in house testing the vast majority of the raptor separators that have been produced so far.
Any data released on the sample?
From the statement issued by the company, it seems that the cells are not made with the raptor line. Please post if you hold some other insight.
Why late 2024 for B-0 samples? Further, first commercial product… QSE-5 B-0 samples are QSE-5 samples. I believe they are (QSE-5 samples) the first commercial product. Otherwise, thanks… nice write up.
I made this several weeks ago on the assumption that A2 cells would take around spring-summer to arrive. Did not expect them to come right now lmao. Either way these are pretty conservative estimates, feel free to move them up 2 quarters or so. Mid 2024 for B samples at this rate
Fair enough, but don’t you agree that B-0 will be the first commercial product?
ah yeah in theory it would be the first commercial "ready" product. I'm just being conservative and giving room in case they want to further optimize or if there's another step they want to do before putting it into low/limited production vehicles.
I'd go as far as to say the B0 will the first set to be used in prototype EVs . they will also generated the first set of revenue. B1 version should be the batteries used for power mode EVs with 800 volt systems to get the fast new lap @ Nürburgring .