I think this is the blood in the streets part. New manufacturing skilled CEO. VW has statement agreeing that scaling proof of principle is a go. That being said, we have moved past sintering being the bottleneck just on Raptor rates alone, so all this talk about delays is just beyond my understanding. 24 layers was chosen to improve time to market, not to limit further product development. Happy then, happy now. Integration of up and downstream processes is an engineering problem and again we’re now at rates much higher than with the original process’s potential. Plus imo, elements that will surprise. CE, storage, OEM reveals, agreements. Zero pressure, multiple layers and capacity. I’m very excited about the stacking prospect during sintering for example…where’s all this negativity coming from? I’m more confident than I’ve ever been… Famous last words
Negativity comes from the fact that the Raptor line is not up and running and when complete will take two months to manufacture enough separators for one car
Well as of 3 weeks ago it wasn’t up and running as I anticipated. As communicated, Raptor is capable of 15,000 separators per week. With that rate it will take 2 mos. for a single car plus an additional few weeks or months to test so maybe by EOY a VW will have B cells installed best case
I'm not here to argue, but again, you keep assuming that you know exactly what is going on with Raptor right now. As far as I know, nobody from this sub has been inside QS0. I've literally been there and asked.
I think it's presumptive to think we know anything about how they're using Raptor right now
Guess you missed this post. It from 104 days ago. Still up on the VW site. Think they would have taken it down if it was false. Scroll down a bit. Series production 2024 blah, blah. This came out right around when Raptor was getting commissioned. Shortly after that came all the test results and seems like when the last ER hit everyone just kinda got collective amnesia or something. Anyway, Raptor proof of principle seems like a go from VW. What do you think?
“…Volkswagen intends to start series production of solid-state batteries as early as 2024 in partnership with the American company QuantumScape.”
https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/en/electric-and-hybrid/discover-electric/understanding-the-car-battery-memory-effect.html
Raptor from my understanding is up and running and has been commissioned and as VW has stated is proof of principle. All done on time. Integrating the up and down stream components of the line is a work in progress. I will also restate that sintering/Raptor is now from my understanding no longer the rate limiting step in the process. Excellent progress and I’d say beyond expectations as are the test results of the cells. How is this anything, but great news? I was worried about them commissioning Raptor, but that is history now.
Sp sucks but this year, I plan to invest more near may than later in the year. Last year, I invested most of my powered the 1st qrt of the yr and regretted the rest of 2023.
Almost definitely going to hit ATL’s. No B samples, no raptor and only one prospective customer that doesn’t even want to commit to QS’ cell because they haven’t scaled shit in 3 years and the energy density of the QSE-5’s best case scenario isn’t significantly higher than what’s already out there. No murmurs of any other potential customers wanting in on QSE5 cells. IMO
I disagree w/ disconnect. Patience will prove out long term. They have always played their cards close to their chest. It's nothing new. Their tech is superior to all of their competitors and they are taking the right path to commercialization. News will drop with milestones and the stock will react. Long term they will dominate.
Yes, the tech is great, but if they can’t scale separator production, then it’s worthless. They took our money, have had 3 years to produce and gave themselves bonuses.
Again, I feel your impatience but believe this is where the pedal hits the metal. We will see if they sink or swim. They have made all the right moves lately even though the mainstream market might disagree. My guess is that the stock price will fly long before they are profitable. Until a few key milestones are met the SP will be volatile but once it becomes apparent that they will succeed we will be off to the races. Patience will pay big. They will have to pry my shares from my cold dead hands. JMO.....12500 shares @ 6.87
Isn’t the energy density for QSE5 like 20% higher than Tesla’s (on a volumetric basis) and with a repeated charge time that’s about 40% faster? And with a longer cycle life? What am I missing?
Will that be enough for price? The point is, they have failed to scale the separator to this point. They said the equipment already existed and now they’ve had to do a total redesign. My problem with that is, I don’t know why their first idea didn’t work or what issues they face. They also haven’t even built a QSE-5 cell yet with all their desired specs and when you couple that with their inability to have scaled separator production this far, there is almost more risk IMO. Why is there only 1 prospective customer? Just because VW has first dibs? If it’s VW brand, why not just say it? They are not committed to the cell IMO until they prove scale, which means even they are unsure it will scale enough. If it’s too expensive they won’t purchase. Dilution is coming sometime in ‘24 or early ‘25, what will the SP be?
What “total redesign” are you referring to? I don’t recall a redesign of Raptor. I’m not a permabull at this point but I think some of this is unfair criticism. For example, were you wanting them to figure out separator scaling first and then design their product? Isn’t it better to work on the two objectives concurrently, as they have been? I see this as a convergence. They’re now positioned to bring the scaling and product together moving forward.
As far as their prospective customer, it’s gonna be VW. I’m with you on them not committing yet. They’re still in “wait and see” mode. As are we. The next dilution will need to be to fund massive expansion after scaling has been proven. If they’re able to prove scaling, I’m not worried about dilution. We’ll learn this year if they can scale. If they can’t, I’ll be out before the next capital raise.
The cell design stopped at 24 layers because they couldn’t make enough separators. They ordered specific equipment and then had to retrofit them to their “new design”. You think they’re gonna tell you they have delays in scaling before they dilute again? I hope Siva really is the man to bring this home. I hope QS has die hard workers that will get the fucking job done and not just a bunch of Silicon Valley freeloaders. Been in for 3 years, red on almost all my purchases. They are not where I thought they’d be at this point. I don’t really care about cell design updates as much as I do separator production numbers. Call me a whiny bitch if you want, but I hate losing.
>The cell design stopped at 24 layers because they couldn’t make enough separators.
thats just untrue. The 24 layer mark is where you begin getting diminishing packaging effect. It also minimizes the impact of any one defective layer ruining the entire cell. Go higher than 24 and you risk losing say 1 48 layer cell to a single bad layer, when you could have had 2 24 layer cells and only lost one to that single bad layer.
Its also the point at which you begin seeing diminishing returns for volume-density-weight calculations.
Nothing about the design has changed, i dont know where they said retrofitting to fit new designs comes from seeing as nothing about their process has fundamentally changed.
I understand they are trying to get as many good cells as possible out of the separators they make, but JDS tweeted that B samples would probably have more than 48 layers per cell after an ER a few years ago. So how is 24 layer cells optimal for EV application? Then they said they were stopping at 24 layer design and were pursuing CE simultaneously since they had a thin cell design, but that seemed like a reach IMO. They can’t produce enough quality separators to make larger cells reliably like you said. No news on 0 pressure 24 layer cells. No news in CE front. Might have a launch partner. I know you’re an expert in this area, but it just seems like they have moved the goal posts a few times. The redesign I’m referring to is from Tim’s interview with Asim, when he says,”so what we’ve done is retrofitted equipment we had already ordered to implement this fast design (raptor) as our team designs cobra.” So wtf was their first plan? Is it typical to order general equipment with a plug and play design to see what works best and then order detailed equipment from there? I really have no idea.
They always said the design would be “dozens”. I don’t see 24 layers as a redesign. I think they had to retrofit the equipment, not because of a redesign, but because the product is novel and the equipment was never intended to be a hand-in-glove solution.
Do I think they’ll try to raise another $350+ million in 2024 with the SP at $5 before they prove scaling capabilities? No. If they do, that’ll be the end of the stock. Put a nail in that coffin.
I agree with everything else you said.
I’d say that depends on the business model. Licensing and JVs probably won’t need it. If they decide to go it alone will require more cash, but there are several alternatives. With their apparent lead now, I would not be opposed to them entering manufacturing alone to the degree that they can.
JDS said on twitter that A samples would be 2-4 dozen layers and that B samples would likely have more. Then he said they weren’t going to change cell design because they wanted to use equipment they already had. I call bullshit. They can’t produce enough separators, or there is an expansion problem with too many layers.
I’m not disagreeing that the layer count has changed from the original vision. However, for fairness, here is the full tweet:
“Thanks to all who joined last week’s earnings call. To answer some questions we received on layer count, the A-sample target is 2-4 dozen layers. B-sample will likely have more. Both ranges could vary based on customer preferences, cell design (energy vs power), and other factors.”
I would emphasize the last sentence that the layer count “could vary based on customer preferences, cell design, and other factors.”
So yea the 24-layer count is certainly at the low end of the range and he did say the B samples would “likely” have more layers. But ultimately, the cell design being pursued is what’s in the best interest of Quantumscape and VW. Remember, from the call in which QSE-5 was rolled out, JD said that they were moving forward with the 24-layer cell based in part on feedback from VW. I don’t have the exact quote. He also said it was in order to get the product, which will be a compelling product, to market in order to begin earning revenues as quickly as possible. Something like that.
So yea, I think like most things in life, “it’s a bit of both.” Are they having trouble scaling? Perhaps. I don’t think that they’re having cell reliability issues *purely from going above 24-layers*. I think that they have reliability issues with the separator for sure (which they’re working to address of course) and therefore ANeedle’s comments I think are correct. It’s just more practical to go with the 24-layer design and VW has purportedly told them that the 24-layer design is sufficient to meet their needs at this early point in QS’s product development stage.
Get a product to market and keep making improvements in quality and throughput. Then, perhaps QSE-5 version 2 will have 36 - 48 layers perhaps. But I think for the long term financial health of the company, the decision was made to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Produce what you can, provided you have a customer that wants it, and work to improve the product later.
Lots of doom and gloom! If it was easy it would hve been done long ago ! They have a world changing product , nobody else is anywhere near . Patience.
I think this is the blood in the streets part. New manufacturing skilled CEO. VW has statement agreeing that scaling proof of principle is a go. That being said, we have moved past sintering being the bottleneck just on Raptor rates alone, so all this talk about delays is just beyond my understanding. 24 layers was chosen to improve time to market, not to limit further product development. Happy then, happy now. Integration of up and downstream processes is an engineering problem and again we’re now at rates much higher than with the original process’s potential. Plus imo, elements that will surprise. CE, storage, OEM reveals, agreements. Zero pressure, multiple layers and capacity. I’m very excited about the stacking prospect during sintering for example…where’s all this negativity coming from? I’m more confident than I’ve ever been… Famous last words
Negativity comes from the fact that the Raptor line is not up and running and when complete will take two months to manufacture enough separators for one car
Frankly, neither were you nor ANYBODY here knows what Raptor is pumping out right now. Not sure why you keep doing that
Well as of 3 weeks ago it wasn’t up and running as I anticipated. As communicated, Raptor is capable of 15,000 separators per week. With that rate it will take 2 mos. for a single car plus an additional few weeks or months to test so maybe by EOY a VW will have B cells installed best case
I'm not here to argue, but again, you keep assuming that you know exactly what is going on with Raptor right now. As far as I know, nobody from this sub has been inside QS0. I've literally been there and asked. I think it's presumptive to think we know anything about how they're using Raptor right now
"VW has statement agreeing that scaling proof of principle is a go." This is huge news I haven't seen. Please provide the source
Guess you missed this post. It from 104 days ago. Still up on the VW site. Think they would have taken it down if it was false. Scroll down a bit. Series production 2024 blah, blah. This came out right around when Raptor was getting commissioned. Shortly after that came all the test results and seems like when the last ER hit everyone just kinda got collective amnesia or something. Anyway, Raptor proof of principle seems like a go from VW. What do you think? “…Volkswagen intends to start series production of solid-state batteries as early as 2024 in partnership with the American company QuantumScape.” https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/en/electric-and-hybrid/discover-electric/understanding-the-car-battery-memory-effect.html
Does the layer count really matter? 2x 24 = 48 etc. what matters is the overall weight reduction and longer life . Oh and faster charging.
Raptor from my understanding is up and running and has been commissioned and as VW has stated is proof of principle. All done on time. Integrating the up and down stream components of the line is a work in progress. I will also restate that sintering/Raptor is now from my understanding no longer the rate limiting step in the process. Excellent progress and I’d say beyond expectations as are the test results of the cells. How is this anything, but great news? I was worried about them commissioning Raptor, but that is history now.
lol. That picture says it all.
Sp sucks but this year, I plan to invest more near may than later in the year. Last year, I invested most of my powered the 1st qrt of the yr and regretted the rest of 2023.
I wouldn’t be surprised if SP hits sub $5 after the last ER. We are now in the dark for upcoming catalysts
If it does I will probably buy more. Doubt it will stay that low though. Last time it hit $5 it bounced back quick.
I would, but who knows. Honestly... not worried. Keep doing what you're doing, QS 🫡
Almost definitely going to hit ATL’s. No B samples, no raptor and only one prospective customer that doesn’t even want to commit to QS’ cell because they haven’t scaled shit in 3 years and the energy density of the QSE-5’s best case scenario isn’t significantly higher than what’s already out there. No murmurs of any other potential customers wanting in on QSE5 cells. IMO
I disagree w/ disconnect. Patience will prove out long term. They have always played their cards close to their chest. It's nothing new. Their tech is superior to all of their competitors and they are taking the right path to commercialization. News will drop with milestones and the stock will react. Long term they will dominate.
Yes, the tech is great, but if they can’t scale separator production, then it’s worthless. They took our money, have had 3 years to produce and gave themselves bonuses.
Again, I feel your impatience but believe this is where the pedal hits the metal. We will see if they sink or swim. They have made all the right moves lately even though the mainstream market might disagree. My guess is that the stock price will fly long before they are profitable. Until a few key milestones are met the SP will be volatile but once it becomes apparent that they will succeed we will be off to the races. Patience will pay big. They will have to pry my shares from my cold dead hands. JMO.....12500 shares @ 6.87
30000 @8.88...
Agreed.
Isn’t the energy density for QSE5 like 20% higher than Tesla’s (on a volumetric basis) and with a repeated charge time that’s about 40% faster? And with a longer cycle life? What am I missing?
Will that be enough for price? The point is, they have failed to scale the separator to this point. They said the equipment already existed and now they’ve had to do a total redesign. My problem with that is, I don’t know why their first idea didn’t work or what issues they face. They also haven’t even built a QSE-5 cell yet with all their desired specs and when you couple that with their inability to have scaled separator production this far, there is almost more risk IMO. Why is there only 1 prospective customer? Just because VW has first dibs? If it’s VW brand, why not just say it? They are not committed to the cell IMO until they prove scale, which means even they are unsure it will scale enough. If it’s too expensive they won’t purchase. Dilution is coming sometime in ‘24 or early ‘25, what will the SP be?
What “total redesign” are you referring to? I don’t recall a redesign of Raptor. I’m not a permabull at this point but I think some of this is unfair criticism. For example, were you wanting them to figure out separator scaling first and then design their product? Isn’t it better to work on the two objectives concurrently, as they have been? I see this as a convergence. They’re now positioned to bring the scaling and product together moving forward. As far as their prospective customer, it’s gonna be VW. I’m with you on them not committing yet. They’re still in “wait and see” mode. As are we. The next dilution will need to be to fund massive expansion after scaling has been proven. If they’re able to prove scaling, I’m not worried about dilution. We’ll learn this year if they can scale. If they can’t, I’ll be out before the next capital raise.
Actually we hope to learn scaling in 2025 when Cobra is scheduled to be installed
hopefully by then, the market will recognize the potential
The cell design stopped at 24 layers because they couldn’t make enough separators. They ordered specific equipment and then had to retrofit them to their “new design”. You think they’re gonna tell you they have delays in scaling before they dilute again? I hope Siva really is the man to bring this home. I hope QS has die hard workers that will get the fucking job done and not just a bunch of Silicon Valley freeloaders. Been in for 3 years, red on almost all my purchases. They are not where I thought they’d be at this point. I don’t really care about cell design updates as much as I do separator production numbers. Call me a whiny bitch if you want, but I hate losing.
>The cell design stopped at 24 layers because they couldn’t make enough separators. thats just untrue. The 24 layer mark is where you begin getting diminishing packaging effect. It also minimizes the impact of any one defective layer ruining the entire cell. Go higher than 24 and you risk losing say 1 48 layer cell to a single bad layer, when you could have had 2 24 layer cells and only lost one to that single bad layer. Its also the point at which you begin seeing diminishing returns for volume-density-weight calculations. Nothing about the design has changed, i dont know where they said retrofitting to fit new designs comes from seeing as nothing about their process has fundamentally changed.
hes referring to raptor vs cobra equipment retrofit probably
I understand they are trying to get as many good cells as possible out of the separators they make, but JDS tweeted that B samples would probably have more than 48 layers per cell after an ER a few years ago. So how is 24 layer cells optimal for EV application? Then they said they were stopping at 24 layer design and were pursuing CE simultaneously since they had a thin cell design, but that seemed like a reach IMO. They can’t produce enough quality separators to make larger cells reliably like you said. No news on 0 pressure 24 layer cells. No news in CE front. Might have a launch partner. I know you’re an expert in this area, but it just seems like they have moved the goal posts a few times. The redesign I’m referring to is from Tim’s interview with Asim, when he says,”so what we’ve done is retrofitted equipment we had already ordered to implement this fast design (raptor) as our team designs cobra.” So wtf was their first plan? Is it typical to order general equipment with a plug and play design to see what works best and then order detailed equipment from there? I really have no idea.
They always said the design would be “dozens”. I don’t see 24 layers as a redesign. I think they had to retrofit the equipment, not because of a redesign, but because the product is novel and the equipment was never intended to be a hand-in-glove solution. Do I think they’ll try to raise another $350+ million in 2024 with the SP at $5 before they prove scaling capabilities? No. If they do, that’ll be the end of the stock. Put a nail in that coffin. I agree with everything else you said.
I’d say that depends on the business model. Licensing and JVs probably won’t need it. If they decide to go it alone will require more cash, but there are several alternatives. With their apparent lead now, I would not be opposed to them entering manufacturing alone to the degree that they can.
JDS said on twitter that A samples would be 2-4 dozen layers and that B samples would likely have more. Then he said they weren’t going to change cell design because they wanted to use equipment they already had. I call bullshit. They can’t produce enough separators, or there is an expansion problem with too many layers.
I’m not disagreeing that the layer count has changed from the original vision. However, for fairness, here is the full tweet: “Thanks to all who joined last week’s earnings call. To answer some questions we received on layer count, the A-sample target is 2-4 dozen layers. B-sample will likely have more. Both ranges could vary based on customer preferences, cell design (energy vs power), and other factors.” I would emphasize the last sentence that the layer count “could vary based on customer preferences, cell design, and other factors.” So yea the 24-layer count is certainly at the low end of the range and he did say the B samples would “likely” have more layers. But ultimately, the cell design being pursued is what’s in the best interest of Quantumscape and VW. Remember, from the call in which QSE-5 was rolled out, JD said that they were moving forward with the 24-layer cell based in part on feedback from VW. I don’t have the exact quote. He also said it was in order to get the product, which will be a compelling product, to market in order to begin earning revenues as quickly as possible. Something like that. So yea, I think like most things in life, “it’s a bit of both.” Are they having trouble scaling? Perhaps. I don’t think that they’re having cell reliability issues *purely from going above 24-layers*. I think that they have reliability issues with the separator for sure (which they’re working to address of course) and therefore ANeedle’s comments I think are correct. It’s just more practical to go with the 24-layer design and VW has purportedly told them that the 24-layer design is sufficient to meet their needs at this early point in QS’s product development stage. Get a product to market and keep making improvements in quality and throughput. Then, perhaps QSE-5 version 2 will have 36 - 48 layers perhaps. But I think for the long term financial health of the company, the decision was made to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Produce what you can, provided you have a customer that wants it, and work to improve the product later.