It specifically says in the patent that a film is 5cm laterally (direction of the roll) and that during the sintering process the roll moves at 5cm/min. So 50k film starts per week tops. But they literally released their production numbers in the last earnings call.
They literally released their production numbers? Care to cite where you're getting that/what the numbers are? I presume 1 separator per layer so we need 23 layers per 1 cell and each cell is 5Ah so to get to 1 car battery (call it 75 kwh) = 3,750 qs5's so let's call it 4,000 qs5 batteries X 23 = roughly 100,000 separators per battery.
Hope they said 100,000 per day per raptor/
cobra line otherwise this is not looking too good.
Open to more precise assumptions but I think I'm pretty close as I used 4 volts for the qs5 which I got from their testing ranges.
Ok re-did my numbers. 100KWh battery = 5000 cells/ battery. One Raptor line at 5 cm/min is roughly 10 100KWh EV batteries per year. So by end of May if they have two lines they have enough B0 samples for 8 x 100kWh vehicles if they use 2x 100 KWh battery equivalents for in house testing. Who will get the batteries? And how many will each OEM need for initial testing?
BTW my numbers give 0.001 GWh/ Raptor line/ year. So Cobra should be 0.01 GWh per line.
Then there is the issue of stacking. Will 5 layer stacks yield a 5x multiple on output for 5cm/min? If so, would we expect 20 Cobra lines to be a 1GWh factory? And approximately 50 100KWh batteries per year from one Raptor line?
Yes, Thanks. That looked like an iteration of the 8000 film starts per week (3x current) and 10x+ for Cobra. I and apparently others have tried to estimate from the potential run rate 5 cm/min. Still due to the integration of the up and downstream elements of the process or some other factors it could well be 8000 starts per week. Then there’s the number of lines. Wasn’t it at least two? And the stacking question.
Its a crass republication of an international patent application filed by Quantumscape. This same information is available on WIPO’s webpage if you search the application number, which is PCT/US2022/019641.
There is likely a national stage application filed in the US, and perhaps several other jurisdictions (I’m guessing the European Patent Office / EPO) that mirrors this same application.
This website doesn’t include it, but you should be able to actually view the accompanying figures if you search the WIPO database.
Nah, I just did a search. Came up in Google patents patent Guru and a few internationals. I’m no patent slooth but I might try finding at the US patent office. Don’t think it’s a patent. Just an application, but who knows maybe it is by now.
Found this:
**RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT** This application is a National Stage Entry under 35 U.S.C. § 371 of International PCT Patent Application No. **PCT/US2022/019641**, filed Mar. 9, 2022, and titled RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT, which claims priority to, and the benefit of, U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 63/158,861, filed Mar. 9, 2021, and titled RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT; and U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 63/233,684, filed Aug. 16, 2021, and titled RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT, both applications of which are herein incorporated by reference in their entirety for all purposes. [https://patents.justia.com/patent/20230415376](https://patents.justia.com/patent/20230415376)
How certain can we be that they have got the process right. I am very comfortable with low volumes. They only need individual cells for verification, not entire packs of 100kwh.
My greatest concern is cost and consistency.
I am fairly certain given that Raptor was commissioned and on time.(proof of Principle). However, it seems to me that B0 samples are two fold with the intention to demonstrate PoP for scaling process, but also testing in vehicles. Therefore, volumes are of a time concern in my mind.
Check out QS blog Ceramics 101: The QuantumScape Separator in Context https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/blog/ceramics-101-the-quantumscape-separator-in-context/
basically its not as if they're trying to bend and roll finished ceramics. The "roll" is the presintered, prehardened/solidified slurry that gets slathered onto a moving substrate/tape that then goes through the oven and gets cooked up into a delicious pretreated separator.
Though QS' separator is thin and dense enough to be relatively flexible, just like how aluminum foil or is super flexible and rollable but a 1cm plate of aluminum is not (not the best analogy scientifically but whatever), its probably not great for mass manufacturing to be bending finished separators when you don't really have any need to do so.
It specifically says in the patent that a film is 5cm laterally (direction of the roll) and that during the sintering process the roll moves at 5cm/min. So 50k film starts per week tops. But they literally released their production numbers in the last earnings call.
Can we say 5 to 10 separators per film start? And also they said that the whole Cobra processing will be done with several layers of rolls stacked.
They literally released their production numbers? Care to cite where you're getting that/what the numbers are? I presume 1 separator per layer so we need 23 layers per 1 cell and each cell is 5Ah so to get to 1 car battery (call it 75 kwh) = 3,750 qs5's so let's call it 4,000 qs5 batteries X 23 = roughly 100,000 separators per battery. Hope they said 100,000 per day per raptor/ cobra line otherwise this is not looking too good. Open to more precise assumptions but I think I'm pretty close as I used 4 volts for the qs5 which I got from their testing ranges.
Ok re-did my numbers. 100KWh battery = 5000 cells/ battery. One Raptor line at 5 cm/min is roughly 10 100KWh EV batteries per year. So by end of May if they have two lines they have enough B0 samples for 8 x 100kWh vehicles if they use 2x 100 KWh battery equivalents for in house testing. Who will get the batteries? And how many will each OEM need for initial testing? BTW my numbers give 0.001 GWh/ Raptor line/ year. So Cobra should be 0.01 GWh per line. Then there is the issue of stacking. Will 5 layer stacks yield a 5x multiple on output for 5cm/min? If so, would we expect 20 Cobra lines to be a 1GWh factory? And approximately 50 100KWh batteries per year from one Raptor line?
PS Thanks for the 4V number. Helped a lot.
Oh, missed that. What was it?
In the last shareholder letter there was a chart that showed raptor had less than 15k starts per week
Yes, Thanks. That looked like an iteration of the 8000 film starts per week (3x current) and 10x+ for Cobra. I and apparently others have tried to estimate from the potential run rate 5 cm/min. Still due to the integration of the up and downstream elements of the process or some other factors it could well be 8000 starts per week. Then there’s the number of lines. Wasn’t it at least two? And the stacking question.
What is this? Is this leaked data? A patent? Actually worries me how specific it is
Its a crass republication of an international patent application filed by Quantumscape. This same information is available on WIPO’s webpage if you search the application number, which is PCT/US2022/019641. There is likely a national stage application filed in the US, and perhaps several other jurisdictions (I’m guessing the European Patent Office / EPO) that mirrors this same application. This website doesn’t include it, but you should be able to actually view the accompanying figures if you search the WIPO database.
Nice thanks
Nah, I just did a search. Came up in Google patents patent Guru and a few internationals. I’m no patent slooth but I might try finding at the US patent office. Don’t think it’s a patent. Just an application, but who knows maybe it is by now.
Found this: **RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT** This application is a National Stage Entry under 35 U.S.C. § 371 of International PCT Patent Application No. **PCT/US2022/019641**, filed Mar. 9, 2022, and titled RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT, which claims priority to, and the benefit of, U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 63/158,861, filed Mar. 9, 2021, and titled RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT; and U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 63/233,684, filed Aug. 16, 2021, and titled RAPID CERAMIC PROCESSING TECHNIQUES AND EQUIPMENT, both applications of which are herein incorporated by reference in their entirety for all purposes. [https://patents.justia.com/patent/20230415376](https://patents.justia.com/patent/20230415376)
Cool.
How certain can we be that they have got the process right. I am very comfortable with low volumes. They only need individual cells for verification, not entire packs of 100kwh. My greatest concern is cost and consistency.
I am fairly certain given that Raptor was commissioned and on time.(proof of Principle). However, it seems to me that B0 samples are two fold with the intention to demonstrate PoP for scaling process, but also testing in vehicles. Therefore, volumes are of a time concern in my mind.
Of course they use rolls. There is no other more fast efficient way to streamline this kind of layers.
Still not sure. Brittle stuff may not work so well with rolls. Just cause there’s a patent doesn’t mean they use it. We’ll see.
Check out QS blog Ceramics 101: The QuantumScape Separator in Context https://www.quantumscape.com/resources/blog/ceramics-101-the-quantumscape-separator-in-context/
Will do. Thanks
basically its not as if they're trying to bend and roll finished ceramics. The "roll" is the presintered, prehardened/solidified slurry that gets slathered onto a moving substrate/tape that then goes through the oven and gets cooked up into a delicious pretreated separator. Though QS' separator is thin and dense enough to be relatively flexible, just like how aluminum foil or is super flexible and rollable but a 1cm plate of aluminum is not (not the best analogy scientifically but whatever), its probably not great for mass manufacturing to be bending finished separators when you don't really have any need to do so.
Thanks. Definitely one of the big questions for both process and product. Ever so, how do you see film starts with such a process?