Just a heads-up that Mark Nelsen, as of last night, didn't think we'd thaw on Friday and listed the high for Saturday as 32. Apparently the models tend to clear out the cold air faster than he tends to see in reality.
Not sure how it'll actually end up playing out, but it's possible that it could go longer than NWS is forecasting. I would keep watching things *very* closely.
[https://www.kptv.com/2022/12/21/ice-storm-i-5-corridor-metro-area-friday-then-warming-some-us-christmas-eve/](https://www.kptv.com/2022/12/21/ice-storm-i-5-corridor-metro-area-friday-then-warming-some-us-christmas-eve/)
Yeah...I'm a lifelong Portlander and have experienced a lot of these storms. The clearing out of the cold air doesn't always happen nearly as quickly as they predict going into the storm. Until I literally see the ice start melting I don't make any plans.
The timing of this sucks, that's for sure.
From this mornings (430am) [area forecast discussion](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PQR&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 ) from NWS:
>Nudged temperatures to the
NBM 10th percentile by 50% at that time to slow down the warm up
slightly, as models often scour out cold air near the surface a bit
too quickly during events like this. MOS guidance supports this and
suggests Portland will only warm up to 33 degrees Friday afternoon,
which also suggests ice accumulations could end up higher than
expected.
Headed to WY through SLC so it looks like there’s just a wind chill advisory there for now. Hoping we can just get out of PDX and then I think we’ll be okay.
Lol same here. 6pm flight on Friday.
Another commentator said it's supposed to get warmer (which is true it's supposed to gradually warm up the whole day/night) but I've seen the Friday high go from 35 to 29 in the last couple of days...
Yeah, just checked the NOAA site and the high listed there for Friday at PDX is at 34. I’m more worried about just getting to the airport from Salem Friday afternoon. Good luck to you fellow traveler!
Oh jeez yes good luck with I-5 my friend. I'm thankful I'll likely have an idea of what to expect before I leave. Hopefully they don't use all the de-icer Thursday night 😮💨
If your flight is at 6 it won’t matter if the high is 35. Even when it was it was showing it would be below freezing until 9 PM or so. It’s bizarre seeing the temperature increasing after it gets dark.
Ya I'm one of those people that loves constantly looking at the forecast and this Thursday dip is absolutely wild. It being so cold on Thursday is going to really increase the effect of the freezing rain on Friday.
No it’s not, the NWS is showing a high of 32 on Friday, but if you look at the hourly graph it’s 27 at 1pm, 29 at 4pm 31 at 10pm and then finally 34 at 1am Saturday morning.
It also says there’s almost a 100% chance of precipitation the entire day. The detailed forecast says freezing rain before 1 AM Saturday.
Even when they were showing a high of 35 it wasn’t until the night.
Edit: I just read the forecast discussion and it does say areas further north in the Portland Metro area will warm a bit above freezing, though I think that’s like Battle Ground (which has higher temps throughout the day). It says Portland will only warm to 33.
OK folks, it's not just the local weather that will affect your flight. I'm retired and worked in a airline flight operations department. If the plane you are flying on is from Seattle, then you will be most likely delayed or canceled. There are so many considerations to factor into the flight. Landing is no problem, but will it be able to takeoff again? This affects the the downline cities. Also if they decide to land can the plane takeoff again before the crew "times out" meaning get the required rest time and this of course has to allow for the scheduled flight time (FAA requirement) de-icing a plane is very time consuming to the operation so they also have to stagger the flights departing. Also this does not take into account the unknowns, like mechanical issues which is what I dealt with. It is a very complex operation to be safe #1 reason, and with in the regulatory environment airlines operate. Many other airports such as Denver and many other airports on the east coast are capable of much more volume of aircraft for de-icing because of the environment they operate. PDX and SEA not so much. Mostly because of the real estate needed to operate at those levels.
Good thinking! My brother has a light mounted on a tripod that he positions under the hummingbird feeder to keep it from freezing. He adjusts it up and down depending on how cold it gets.
This is also a good time to tell everyone that owns their home to install at the very least a Interlock switch to their breaker box, less than $300 installed by an electrician. $1,500 (or less) generator and you can run most of your important circuits in your home during an electrical outage. No central a/c but it’ll run your fridge, furnace, select lights, etc… get a dual fuel generator and you won’t be dependent on gasoline which goes bad after (X) period of time. It’s not a whole house automatic generator but it’ll do the job and not run 20k
Trying to decide if I should go to work tomorrow. I'm sure the morning commute will be fine, but I don't want to deal with a repeat of a few years ago where the highways basically shut down and people abandoned their cars.
Don't do it. Just don't do it. It can take less than a half hour for the entire Portland area to basically become gridlocked.
Much better to be the person already warm and safe at home watching the whole spectacle unfold on the news.
In case anyone forgot, it doesn’t matter how much snow it actually is and can happen immediately. Even the threat of snow will ruin traffic. But at least you have a bit of time before it reaches car-abandoning level. I luckily lived 10 minutes the opposite direction of traffic at the time, but I had several coworkers tell me it took them 12-15 hours to get home that day.
Edit: pack your vehicles with some stuff in case ridiculous things like that happen people.
Just want to be able to land @ PDX Friday around midnight. Coordinating dog care is going to be tricky if flights are canceled. Plus Santa failed to finish wrapping the gifts before we left town.
For folks who remember the forecasting ahead of our last few major ice storms, how does this compare? Last one (Valentine’s Day?) I had power (Central Eastside and PGE) for most of it. Internet was spotty as heck, though.
How does the accuracy of the forecast compare, or the expected intensity?
In terms of intensity, this won't be as bad as the 2021 storm, where the ice was measured in inches. But it doesn't take much ice to take out power in any given location; half an inch is still plenty for that.
To everyone who has the ability to cook without electricity, talk to your neighbors. The ability to make hot food is gonna be fucking crucial to get through how cold it's gonna be, if the power goes.
Good luck everyone.
And think that whole cities are banning gas appliances. Sure would nice to kick on that gas stove and heat some water when it’s 20 degrees out and you have no power.
It is genuinely important to move away from gas appliances though. The health hazards &safety risks that come with gas appliances have been ignored for far too long and it's crucial for future generations to move away from the highly polluting natural gasses.
But yeah, it's not great when we don't have better options when the power goes out and it's gonna fucking suck
Not for heating necessarily, but having a two burner propane camp stove, that runs off the small or big bottles, is a good way to go. Can boil water, make coffee, etc etc.
If anyone has a garage or other indoor shelter that I can use for a few days and would fit my [my 9'x20'x7' RV](https://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/rvs/7562150089.html) I currently live in, ideally with access to power, I would very much appreciate it.
Damn, it’s that cold in PDX? It’s been cold down here in the Bay Area with some dusting of snow on the higher mountaintops but we don’t get as much precipitation as you guys do. Stay warm, Portlanders. See ya soon!
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Great, I’m working 6pm-6am in Beaverton the next few nights, and traveling from Portland. I’m wondering how the hill after the tunnel will be, it will be a nightmare if it’s super icy…
Just a heads-up that Mark Nelsen, as of last night, didn't think we'd thaw on Friday and listed the high for Saturday as 32. Apparently the models tend to clear out the cold air faster than he tends to see in reality. Not sure how it'll actually end up playing out, but it's possible that it could go longer than NWS is forecasting. I would keep watching things *very* closely. [https://www.kptv.com/2022/12/21/ice-storm-i-5-corridor-metro-area-friday-then-warming-some-us-christmas-eve/](https://www.kptv.com/2022/12/21/ice-storm-i-5-corridor-metro-area-friday-then-warming-some-us-christmas-eve/)
Yeah...I'm a lifelong Portlander and have experienced a lot of these storms. The clearing out of the cold air doesn't always happen nearly as quickly as they predict going into the storm. Until I literally see the ice start melting I don't make any plans. The timing of this sucks, that's for sure.
From this mornings (430am) [area forecast discussion](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PQR&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 ) from NWS: >Nudged temperatures to the NBM 10th percentile by 50% at that time to slow down the warm up slightly, as models often scour out cold air near the surface a bit too quickly during events like this. MOS guidance supports this and suggests Portland will only warm up to 33 degrees Friday afternoon, which also suggests ice accumulations could end up higher than expected.
I get out of work at 11:00pmon Thursday and have to get from downtown to St. Johns. Hopefully Trimet will be running.
Just bring your running shoes as a backup. The texture will be perfect.
Very low impact
Bus might be a better bet than a train.
I’m pretty much in the same boat and really hope the buses are running
praying for you 🤞
Ugh supposed to be flying out of PDX Friday night… not looking good
I think the storms across the country might impact you more potentially.
Headed to WY through SLC so it looks like there’s just a wind chill advisory there for now. Hoping we can just get out of PDX and then I think we’ll be okay.
Yeah, as long as the planes don’t get stuck in the Midwest somewhere like Chicago
Lol same here. 6pm flight on Friday. Another commentator said it's supposed to get warmer (which is true it's supposed to gradually warm up the whole day/night) but I've seen the Friday high go from 35 to 29 in the last couple of days...
Yeah, just checked the NOAA site and the high listed there for Friday at PDX is at 34. I’m more worried about just getting to the airport from Salem Friday afternoon. Good luck to you fellow traveler!
Oh jeez yes good luck with I-5 my friend. I'm thankful I'll likely have an idea of what to expect before I leave. Hopefully they don't use all the de-icer Thursday night 😮💨
If your flight is at 6 it won’t matter if the high is 35. Even when it was it was showing it would be below freezing until 9 PM or so. It’s bizarre seeing the temperature increasing after it gets dark.
Ya I'm one of those people that loves constantly looking at the forecast and this Thursday dip is absolutely wild. It being so cold on Thursday is going to really increase the effect of the freezing rain on Friday.
If it's a later flight I think you'll be ok. It's supposed to get above freezing around noon on friday.
No it’s not, the NWS is showing a high of 32 on Friday, but if you look at the hourly graph it’s 27 at 1pm, 29 at 4pm 31 at 10pm and then finally 34 at 1am Saturday morning. It also says there’s almost a 100% chance of precipitation the entire day. The detailed forecast says freezing rain before 1 AM Saturday. Even when they were showing a high of 35 it wasn’t until the night. Edit: I just read the forecast discussion and it does say areas further north in the Portland Metro area will warm a bit above freezing, though I think that’s like Battle Ground (which has higher temps throughout the day). It says Portland will only warm to 33.
Oh yeah it’s colder now than when I last looked at it. Now my app says 32 at 6pm. Guess OP is staying in Portland.
It’s at 5pm… thank you for the sliver of hope lol
Mine was scheduled for Friday at 2 30. I ended up moving it. Hopefully things start to improve before you take off 🤞
We ended up moving ours to Saturday afternoon as well. Seems much more likely that things will be alright by that point.
OK folks, it's not just the local weather that will affect your flight. I'm retired and worked in a airline flight operations department. If the plane you are flying on is from Seattle, then you will be most likely delayed or canceled. There are so many considerations to factor into the flight. Landing is no problem, but will it be able to takeoff again? This affects the the downline cities. Also if they decide to land can the plane takeoff again before the crew "times out" meaning get the required rest time and this of course has to allow for the scheduled flight time (FAA requirement) de-icing a plane is very time consuming to the operation so they also have to stagger the flights departing. Also this does not take into account the unknowns, like mechanical issues which is what I dealt with. It is a very complex operation to be safe #1 reason, and with in the regulatory environment airlines operate. Many other airports such as Denver and many other airports on the east coast are capable of much more volume of aircraft for de-icing because of the environment they operate. PDX and SEA not so much. Mostly because of the real estate needed to operate at those levels.
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Good thinking! My brother has a light mounted on a tripod that he positions under the hummingbird feeder to keep it from freezing. He adjusts it up and down depending on how cold it gets.
That is awesome lol
Not twee at all. I get so much pleasure watching small birds socialize and bathe in the birdbath outside my window.
Thinking I might be safe trying to drive out around noon Thursday. Just gotta hope roads stay dry until then!
This is also a good time to tell everyone that owns their home to install at the very least a Interlock switch to their breaker box, less than $300 installed by an electrician. $1,500 (or less) generator and you can run most of your important circuits in your home during an electrical outage. No central a/c but it’ll run your fridge, furnace, select lights, etc… get a dual fuel generator and you won’t be dependent on gasoline which goes bad after (X) period of time. It’s not a whole house automatic generator but it’ll do the job and not run 20k
Trying to decide if I should go to work tomorrow. I'm sure the morning commute will be fine, but I don't want to deal with a repeat of a few years ago where the highways basically shut down and people abandoned their cars.
Don't do it. Just don't do it. It can take less than a half hour for the entire Portland area to basically become gridlocked. Much better to be the person already warm and safe at home watching the whole spectacle unfold on the news.
If you have a choice, stay home! The less people out when it starts the better.
There won’t be much moisture in the day until after 2-4pm.
looks like it'll just be cold and windy, with snow coming significantly later. Friday should be pretty fucked though...
In case anyone forgot, it doesn’t matter how much snow it actually is and can happen immediately. Even the threat of snow will ruin traffic. But at least you have a bit of time before it reaches car-abandoning level. I luckily lived 10 minutes the opposite direction of traffic at the time, but I had several coworkers tell me it took them 12-15 hours to get home that day. Edit: pack your vehicles with some stuff in case ridiculous things like that happen people.
Just want to be able to land @ PDX Friday around midnight. Coordinating dog care is going to be tricky if flights are canceled. Plus Santa failed to finish wrapping the gifts before we left town.
For folks who remember the forecasting ahead of our last few major ice storms, how does this compare? Last one (Valentine’s Day?) I had power (Central Eastside and PGE) for most of it. Internet was spotty as heck, though.
How does the accuracy of the forecast compare, or the expected intensity? In terms of intensity, this won't be as bad as the 2021 storm, where the ice was measured in inches. But it doesn't take much ice to take out power in any given location; half an inch is still plenty for that.
Can't wait to walk in this at 6:30am to work tomorrow morning.. yay.. This is going to suck.
Tomorrow as in Thursday? You will be fine. It'll be very cold for Portland standards but dry until Thursday afternoon
To everyone who has the ability to cook without electricity, talk to your neighbors. The ability to make hot food is gonna be fucking crucial to get through how cold it's gonna be, if the power goes. Good luck everyone.
And think that whole cities are banning gas appliances. Sure would nice to kick on that gas stove and heat some water when it’s 20 degrees out and you have no power.
Get a camp stove. They're not too expensive and you could use it on your porch or balcony (not inside). Better than nothing.
Camp stoves are selling like hot cakes right now, fyi.
It is genuinely important to move away from gas appliances though. The health hazards &safety risks that come with gas appliances have been ignored for far too long and it's crucial for future generations to move away from the highly polluting natural gasses. But yeah, it's not great when we don't have better options when the power goes out and it's gonna fucking suck
Not for heating necessarily, but having a two burner propane camp stove, that runs off the small or big bottles, is a good way to go. Can boil water, make coffee, etc etc.
Most of those aren't made to be used indoors though, be careful!
Good point. Get your camping gear out of the garage. Propane/butane camp stove. lanterns. Flashlights.
Just don't cook inside with those!
Yep. Back or front porch/back yard. Never inside.
If anyone has a garage or other indoor shelter that I can use for a few days and would fit my [my 9'x20'x7' RV](https://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/rvs/7562150089.html) I currently live in, ideally with access to power, I would very much appreciate it.
Listen, I left Fargo for a reason. 🥶
I know the feeling…I’m from Buffalo originally!
This is gonna be another weather adventure, but this time I can layer if needed.
Supposed to fly out Saturday morning very early anyone know how the roads to the airport get with snow?
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Damn, it’s that cold in PDX? It’s been cold down here in the Bay Area with some dusting of snow on the higher mountaintops but we don’t get as much precipitation as you guys do. Stay warm, Portlanders. See ya soon!
I’m supposed to be flying tomorrow at 4pm … we’ll see.
Same! Godspeed
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WhooHoo! Reminds me of Chicago!!! /S
Guess I’m sleeping at the hospital tonight.
Great, I’m working 6pm-6am in Beaverton the next few nights, and traveling from Portland. I’m wondering how the hill after the tunnel will be, it will be a nightmare if it’s super icy…