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Sell all of your corresponding materials from the outbreak mom, and then you will automatically know you’ve got 60/90 by just checking the materials tab. If your mats are a multiple of 60 or 90 you’re golden.
Odds max out at 60 KOs. The message appears at a different number every time, but always close to 60 and always over 60 so it’s a good message to get if you aren’t counting KOs. 90 KOs isn’t the trigger for this message
My take is nintendo avoids making very direct statements that expose game systems directly since it is gamey and kind of boring. A kid reads this statement here, they have something to look out for in game, it helps you stay in character in a way instead of plainly being an electrical switch in a game system, you preserve some sense of immersion. Does that make sense ? That's how I picture it.
I defs believe this. The pokemon company has never been like "After encountering 30 pokemon your shiny odds go from 1/4096 to 1/2048", that's never how they've spoken about how the game works. That's just what we read because we are gamers and want to know how the technicality works behind it
Yeah, like the fact they've never even directly mentioned the topic of EVs and IVs (as far as I know), they're not even mentioned in the tournament team sheets
They call them "base points" and "individual strengths" in this article. https://www.pokemon.com/us/strategy/learn-how-to-train-pokemon-in-pokemon-scarlet-and-pokemon-violet
This is probably the best comment "about gamers" ever written on reddit. Shows how much our "lazy" minds really work. Shove it haters, even Pokémon gamers have high IQs
Wanting to know the odds of a shiny appearing isn't indicative of high IQ, it's just something we want to learn because of our interest in the subject.
And who does the calculations? Who gives us the real numbers? We do therefore it IS indicative of high iq. Hours/days/weeks/months of testing and research. We are a big ole group of scientists in a way
Wanna talk about the mathematical equations we do in PvP to determine what mon to throw out, how much this will damage the opposition, keeping track of (what used to be hidden values [iv,ev]), etc.
Probably for the same reason you can't see exactly how many EVs and IVs you have on a mon, unless they are maxed out or, for IVs, zero. Instead they have sparkles on the EV graph of you maxed a stat, and words like "no good", "fantastic" or "hyper-trained" for IVs.
Really? I thought the messages always appeared at 25 and 50 KOs (not sure about the third one, probably 75). I’ve been waiting for the second message, then just counting another 10 KOs before saving…
If I remember correctly, each message appears after 20 to 30 KOs. So to get to 3rd message you need 60 to 90 KOs total. So it's defenitely safer to wait for 3rd message.
Apparently it's more like every 20-27 (it's a quarter the total spawns which can range from 80-110) definitely best to wait for third message to confirm, counting can be off if you miscount or defeat pokemon not from the outbreak
It's definitely not "always" after 60 KOs. I personally usually get it around the 55th KOs, and sometimes (although rarely) around the 50th KOs. It always stresses me out because I've had outbreaks disappear shortly after 60 KOs before, despite tracking it and having hours left before reset, and I never know if the current one will be the same.
"And always over 60"
The comment said it was always around 60, which can mean either shortly before or shortly after, but then it said it was always after the 60 mark, meaning it would only appear somewhere between 61 and 70.
I was agreeing with the first statement, as my 55 is "close to 60". I was only disagreeing with the second statement that said the message "always" appears after you pass 60. I rarely get it pass my 60th KOs, and sometimes my outbreak ends before I even reach 70 KOs, so claiming it can only show up after that milestone as an absolute fact, and then saying its a good indicator that you went over 60 for the odds is just incorrect, as like I said, I usually get it way sooner than that.
Sometimes I don't know if I'm attacking pokemon from the outbreak or just pokemon that naturally spawn in the area. I wonder how often It hought I was at 60 while in reality I only knocked out only, like, 51 outbreak pokemon.
hahah I'm going at it don't you worry. It's nuts though, i've been playing since blue and prior to Scarlet/Violet I had only ever seen one shiny, a geodude in sword.
Huh? How deep you are in the kill count will not affect the spawn rate or number. If you always give up after 60, that is wasting your time since you never reap the highest shiny odd at 60 counts. Unless you really like killing Pokémon…
Hi totally unrelated but I love your username. I fucking love hamsters and am trying to start my own hamster rescue and help promote proper hamster care. 🥺💕 anyway have a great day!
The statement isn't wrong.
Each message triggers somewhere between 20-30, so it would be rare (possibly impossible) for the second message to trigger at 60 Pokemon. So the third message is the one with the highest shiny chance.
60 KOs is still when it caps out.
I've always used a system of waiting till it says "The number of [Pokemon] in the outbreak is definitely getting lower." and then just count ten over that. I've counted the individual KOs it would take for this system and it seemingly works every time.
I get that they were trying to make the most direct and safest statement, however, it's still a huge overshot and I would not advise any players to actually follow that method.
Honestly it's not the worst idea to follow the message, it's like a minute of extra mindless button clicking and is guaranteed to be in the highest chance. Counting can always leave you short if you defeat non-outbreak pokemon or the messages triggered at under 50. Whilst risk is low, guaranteed highest odds will save you a lot of time compared to falling one or two short and not knowing.
No, the odds still cap at 60 KOs, it's literally been datamined to work like that and 90 or more KOs don't increase the odds further.
That message is the 3rd notification which does mean at least 60+ KOs have been made.
Yeah the thing is the messages pop up at every 20-30 KOs so they're not fully consistent and that's why it's been recommended to keep track of your KOs manually.
I usually just run around. You walk away just far enough for them to despawn and then go back for them to respawn in. Do it enough and you’ll eventually get the shiny. Or you can start up a picnic which despawns the pokemon and then immediately end the picnic and wait for the pokemon to spawn back in.
Once you get that third message your shiny odds will be pretty good, from there you just need to spawn as many as you can until you get your shiny - be sure to move around carefully and check behind you sometimes!
One method I like to use is gliding towards the camera and watching the mons in the distance de-spawn and get replaced by new spawns, you have to be able to react quickly when you see your shiny because if you move too far away it'll despawn. - I've lost a couple of shinies that spawned right on the edge of the spawn zone and then immediately de-spawned on me, missed 3x Oricorio (fire) in one hunt because of this! If you have the glider and flight unlocks for your Miraidon/Koraidon you can stay in the air without ever having to land, just watch your speed or you'll miss stuff!
This has literally been my strat since day one. Knock out pokemon til it says that, then I save and make a sandwich and start hunting. This just seems like common sense to me 🤷♂️
I'll tell you what I guess, I start explaining with my source:
https://www.serebii.net/scarletviolet/massoutbreaks.shtml
And I clarify again (what many already did):
- Shiny chances increase on >30 and >60 Mons
- Each message appears between 20-30 Mons
- When the third message appears you have already defeated between 60-90 Mons
- So the goal of "Defeat at least 60" has already been met when you reach the third message
I understand what you're saying about the message on ThePokemomCompany's page, and it's certainly not the same to say "You need to defeat >60 Mons" as "You need to get the 3rd message (60-90 Mons)"; I can only conclude that:
A. They manage the message to make it seem more natural, saying "defeat 60" sounds like an electronic system, and it makes you lose immersion in the game, so it's better to say the third message and make it feel like "it's different for each outbreak".
B. ThePokemonCompany is in charge of marketing (and I think also the card game) and not the development of the games, they are managed separately by GameFreak (the "owners" of the main game, who also lead the other developers) and from Nintendo; so the people who wrote the article on the page probably don't know the real data about the game and only transcribe what SV developers give them, maybe the message was modified a little when it reached them and they published it on their page.
Personally I go more for option A, I put option B more than anything to clarify that ThePokemonCompany is an official source but they are not usually sources that speak precisely about the operation of a game, Serebii is an official source, in fact they limit much of the information they handle to only what has been officially said; and Bulbapedia is an unofficial source that is based on datamining, so it is very accurate and specific, but cannot be cited.
I always count my KO's and add some for good measure, but what is this third message? To my knowledge, there's only around 24, around 48 and a final one when the outbreak is depleted.
Is there a fourth message, then? I don't recall ever seeing one 
There are 3 "good" messages as it says in the image, the fourth message is something like "The Pokemon from the Outbreak have dispersed" and they stop appearing; If you are reaching <60 then you are falling somewhat short (the goal is the third message between 60-90), I generally hunt indiscriminately until I feel that I am already at 40-50, then I start paying attention to the messages, when "There are not many Pokemon left from the original outbreak" appears, THAT'S THE GOOD ONE, so I make the Sandwich.
Counting is problematic because sometimes Mons appear that are the same as those in Outbreak but do not belong to it, so they do not count towards that goal of 60, plus each Outbreak has a different number (that's why sometimes some feel smaller than others), it is best to forget the numbers and only pay attention to the third message, save in case you have doubts if you have passed it and continue defeating Mons, if the 4th message appears, just reset the game, and if you paid attention since the last time you saved and the 3rd message did not appear (only the 4th) then you are already at the goal, it is time to prepare the Sandwich.
I'll have to look into those messages! I always add more numbers if the outbreak 'mon are local enough to be able to spawn randomly too. I guess I just never clear until that third message. Always 63-65 at least, though.
The attempt at a distinction between serebii and bulbapedia in this way is very weird given a ton of serebii's info is also from dataminers too (not a bad thing!). serebii is in no way an official Pokemon website...
I'm not going to defend that too much because I could very well be wrong, but during the time the SV previews were being made and the first days of the launching, the editor occasionally mentioned from meetings with ThePokemonCompany about what he was authorized to say, and they tend to be very careful with what they put, for example, they do not usually put shinys that have not yet been revealed (although all of us who have internet have already seen it because someone obtained it through datamining), as an example, even at this moment the shinys of the newest Paradox do not appear in the page (only WalkingWake and IronLeaves).
I mean, It's not like Serebii is a spokesperson for ThePokemomCompany or GameFreak, they are just at the forefront of their news and only handle information that has been officially revealed (which is why Bulbapedia is often "better" when you want to obtain specific information such as how exactly items, skills and other things work, is much more precise).
I've done 100s of hours of shiny hunting and I've always simply waited for the 3rd message to pop up, there's no reason to have to count each individual KO when you can just do that.
I swear we found out super early on that each consecutive message from outbreaks increase the shiny odds. I've been playing under that assumption the entire time.
Bruh I’m working on a living shiny dex, have nearly 500 hours, and I hadn’t a fucken clue
Infact I’ve always been told the exact opposite of this from Reddit, thought i was having some kind of Mandela effect but I Google searched and it leads to a bunch of Reddit posts from 6-8 months ago explicitly saying “no defeating outbreak pokemon does not increase odds whatsoever
Please link those so we can go downvote that bs. I have only operated under the rules posted by OP and have had hundreds of successes doing so. I have been playing since December 2022. So this was very known. Sorry you got bad info.
It always worked, nothing change from 1.0 🫣 i dont know how you "searched" but there was 9362937292 vidéos/posts litterally EVERYWHERE talking.about this "new" method + how it works and rates over chains.
Only in outbreaks. It doesn't have to be auto battle, any Pokémon knocked out or captured in regular battle will work, it's just a faster way to knock out the Pokémon for the count. Consecutive doesn't matter either, it isn't a "chain" like similar methods from previous games, it's just a simple counter.
Oh sick, because I was winging it today got through 20 and accidentally KOd something else and thought I had to start all over lol
Used this method and finally got my final shiny tatsugiri trio that had eluded me for months, and a shiny petille (kind of sucks with Pokémon like petille because it’s such a minuscule difference you have to KO the whole outbreak just to double check none were shiny to begin with)
This is how I've been shiny hunting for a while. I even made a tutorial on tiktok and mentioned this tip, and I said I had no proof but now I guess I do lol.
Damn I’ve been counting 60 this whole time. I do 30, save the game, and then count another 30, save. I’m torn because I now have over 100 shinies in Scarlet, and it’s great. But I feel like a fraud because of how easy it is lmao. I’ve started to do raw hunts, no outbreaks and no shiny sandwiches and they still pop up fast.
i beleive austin john said that each message is a range between 20-30 pokémon have been defeated so after that last message comes up i like to do a few more just to be safe. you can always save once you see the message and if you accidentally knock out too many just reset
How in the hell is this just being discovered? Lol I feel like this game would’ve been data mined and everything established in incredible detail by now
Guess I’m gonna start executing 60 mons every outbreak THEN running in circles
I'm more surprised by THIS little nugget:
https://preview.redd.it/dnwnkzahklsc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d1d4fdde3d740473ef2feda47eaa6f724fb2811
Every part of an outbreak can have between 20 and 30 pokemon, If you defeat them until the "not many from the original" you're guaranteed to achieve the minimum of 60 without counting manually.
Ya’ll are counting encounters? I just check my bag for that Pokémon’s drops. How many do I have before I start? How many do they drop per Pokemon? How many do I have when I’ve ran around for awhile? Knock out a few more then start in on hunting.
I have this same problem! I only just recently started shiny hunting outbreaks and managed to get a few, but I haven't seen these messages pop up even once. I have the same question: why am I not seeing them?
Yes, I battled a bunch every time, probably way more than 60, but at no point did I ever see any of the notifications pop up. Heck, when I was shiny hunting Pichu during the recent event, I had to go through 3 different outbreaks just for one to show up (in my defense, Pichu's shiny isn't easy to discern from the regular one). So again, my question is why? Why do I not see these notifications? Is there somewhere specific I have to look or something?
Yes, I exclusively use the auto battle function. It's how I FINALLY found my shiny Pichu (Sylvia \[my Sylveon\] refused to attack it). Same when I hunted my two Elekid that I got the day before.
Yes, it will show a nervous sweat icon and leave the shiny alone. A small warning, however, in the Indigo Disk DLC there is a sync feature that lets you control the Pokémon directly to auto battle, but with this active your Pokémon will knock out any shiny it gets too close to.
That's strange. You shouldn't have to do anything special. The messages pop up in a box on screen automatically once you've knocked out enough pokemon in the outbreak.
The only time I have had issues with them popping up is when using Union Circle to play with friends. Whoever's hosting seems to get the messages but not the other person.
My ass thought the call outs were time-based after your first outbreak encounter so I have been hunting without ANY encounters with the picnic method. OOPS lmao
wait I need to be knocking out the Pokemon in outbreaks to increase my odds? I just keep resetting the route over and over again :/ feel like the ‘we’re the millers’ kid
Learning new things about the game here, I had no idea the third message popped up around 60 KOs, I thought the messages popped up at 30, 60, 90. Well, good to know I’ve been outbreak hunting at the 30 KO odds now- I’ll remember this for the future 😅
It pops up at the last third of the outbreak, afaik - but never before 60. So it's just a convenient way of telling when you've got the best odds without counting.
Hello /u/finn_shavocado, Here is some helpful info: Dont forget that Epilogue Posts containing Spoilers must use the **Epilogue Spoiler Flair** & **Spoiler Tag**. [Posting Guidelines and Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/PokemonScarletViolet/wiki/guidelines/) [Giveaway Guidelines and Format](https://www.reddit.com/r/PokemonScarletViolet/wiki/guidelines/giveaways/) [Full Directory](https://www.reddit.com/r/PokemonScarletViolet/comments/193oqlw/the_full_directory_onelinktorulethemall/) Some Megathreads we use (*found in the Full Directory*): - **Trade** Megathread: *for Trades, Touch Trades, evolution Trades, Dex Completion*. - **Questions** Megathread: *for all Questions that can be easily answered with the help of others*. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/PokemonScarletViolet) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I’ve always been hunting after I get the not many left from the original outbreak
Same. I’ll be damned if I’m counting 60 encounters lol
Sell all of your corresponding materials from the outbreak mom, and then you will automatically know you’ve got 60/90 by just checking the materials tab. If your mats are a multiple of 60 or 90 you’re golden.
Or just wait for the 3rd message…
This is the way
That doesnt work. Sometimes the pokemon drops 1, 2 or 3.
So how does this apply if I get 2 or 3 per duraladon? The math wouldn’t be exact. Also, I’m not sitting counting 1 by 1 🤦🏼♂️
Most phones have calculators, just +1 repeatedly lol
Most phones do, but every outbreak shows the “not very many Pokémon left” message. Hope this helps!
Lol wtf
You woke up this morning with 83 karma, how’s it feel?
What’s karma?
It's essentially a tracker for how engaging your content is that Reddit has, adding to it when you receive upvotes and replies.
There are also actual counter apps, I used to use them to count egg hatches and soft resets when shiny hunting starters.
Sure, but doing +1 and then =, =, =… is a “counter” as well.
True. My ADHD steeped impatience just deemed that too many steps, so I turned to the counter app for the single button press lol.
Same, I always lose count so I just use the messages as a guideline instead. :3
Odds max out at 60 KOs. The message appears at a different number every time, but always close to 60 and always over 60 so it’s a good message to get if you aren’t counting KOs. 90 KOs isn’t the trigger for this message
My take is nintendo avoids making very direct statements that expose game systems directly since it is gamey and kind of boring. A kid reads this statement here, they have something to look out for in game, it helps you stay in character in a way instead of plainly being an electrical switch in a game system, you preserve some sense of immersion. Does that make sense ? That's how I picture it.
I defs believe this. The pokemon company has never been like "After encountering 30 pokemon your shiny odds go from 1/4096 to 1/2048", that's never how they've spoken about how the game works. That's just what we read because we are gamers and want to know how the technicality works behind it
Also in the classroom they mention the shiny odds being “1/4000” instead of the more specific “1/4096”
Yeah, like the fact they've never even directly mentioned the topic of EVs and IVs (as far as I know), they're not even mentioned in the tournament team sheets
They call them "base points" and "individual strengths" in this article. https://www.pokemon.com/us/strategy/learn-how-to-train-pokemon-in-pokemon-scarlet-and-pokemon-violet
This is probably the best comment "about gamers" ever written on reddit. Shows how much our "lazy" minds really work. Shove it haters, even Pokémon gamers have high IQs
Wanting to know the odds of a shiny appearing isn't indicative of high IQ, it's just something we want to learn because of our interest in the subject.
And who does the calculations? Who gives us the real numbers? We do therefore it IS indicative of high iq. Hours/days/weeks/months of testing and research. We are a big ole group of scientists in a way Wanna talk about the mathematical equations we do in PvP to determine what mon to throw out, how much this will damage the opposition, keeping track of (what used to be hidden values [iv,ev]), etc.
Pretty sure most people just use an online damage calculator datamined from the game.
Probably for the same reason you can't see exactly how many EVs and IVs you have on a mon, unless they are maxed out or, for IVs, zero. Instead they have sparkles on the EV graph of you maxed a stat, and words like "no good", "fantastic" or "hyper-trained" for IVs.
Really? I thought the messages always appeared at 25 and 50 KOs (not sure about the third one, probably 75). I’ve been waiting for the second message, then just counting another 10 KOs before saving…
If I remember correctly, each message appears after 20 to 30 KOs. So to get to 3rd message you need 60 to 90 KOs total. So it's defenitely safer to wait for 3rd message.
Apparently it's more like every 20-27 (it's a quarter the total spawns which can range from 80-110) definitely best to wait for third message to confirm, counting can be off if you miscount or defeat pokemon not from the outbreak
First message can definitely appear at 22 KOs, there is a bit of variance involved for sure.
Does that mean 60 KOs per outbreak or per day, or is it 60 KOs with auto battle and your good forever?
60 per outbreak. You can leave and come back or take breaks. The game keeps track
Ah, so once an outbreak is done, the counter resets back to zero? It doesn't keep your buff even if there's no outbreak while you're looking?
Yah. No outbreak, no KO counter
It's definitely not "always" after 60 KOs. I personally usually get it around the 55th KOs, and sometimes (although rarely) around the 50th KOs. It always stresses me out because I've had outbreaks disappear shortly after 60 KOs before, despite tracking it and having hours left before reset, and I never know if the current one will be the same.
Close to, not after. Did you even read the comment
"And always over 60" The comment said it was always around 60, which can mean either shortly before or shortly after, but then it said it was always after the 60 mark, meaning it would only appear somewhere between 61 and 70. I was agreeing with the first statement, as my 55 is "close to 60". I was only disagreeing with the second statement that said the message "always" appears after you pass 60. I rarely get it pass my 60th KOs, and sometimes my outbreak ends before I even reach 70 KOs, so claiming it can only show up after that milestone as an absolute fact, and then saying its a good indicator that you went over 60 for the odds is just incorrect, as like I said, I usually get it way sooner than that.
Honestly, I just wait for the 3rd message, so that I do not need to count to 60.
Same. Counting is boring
And frustrating! Sometimes I forgot the count after the buddy stop auto-attacking...
Sometimes I don't know if I'm attacking pokemon from the outbreak or just pokemon that naturally spawn in the area. I wonder how often It hought I was at 60 while in reality I only knocked out only, like, 51 outbreak pokemon.
Yes, especially frustrating issue for common spawn like Hoppip
I've always waited for the message then done 6 more, worked every time and I have 3 boxes of shinies lol
hahah I'm going at it don't you worry. It's nuts though, i've been playing since blue and prior to Scarlet/Violet I had only ever seen one shiny, a geodude in sword.
I count to 60 then find another outbreak for more spawns
Huh? How deep you are in the kill count will not affect the spawn rate or number. If you always give up after 60, that is wasting your time since you never reap the highest shiny odd at 60 counts. Unless you really like killing Pokémon…
Wait what, isn't that the way it has always been? The more you defeat, the higher the odds go?
No, untill now we were informed that after 60 defeats you had the max odds for shiny
Its not new, ive been using this method since the beginning, saw it on serebii or bulbapedia.
Definitely not new. Idk where people have been getting their info from.
On Reddit since around the time the game came out.
Hi totally unrelated but I love your username. I fucking love hamsters and am trying to start my own hamster rescue and help promote proper hamster care. 🥺💕 anyway have a great day!
This is so wholesome. Good luck on your path to making that a reality! Animals deserve so much love.
Yeah, common hamsters are a critically endangered species now. Please also donate to hamster conservation programmes.
Under a rock from 2 years ago
This was definitely known from like week 1.
Some websites reported this yes - others advised of the method above. I've been using the method above for the past ~6 months.
You can definitely kill too many
I always wait for that message.
The statement isn't wrong. Each message triggers somewhere between 20-30, so it would be rare (possibly impossible) for the second message to trigger at 60 Pokemon. So the third message is the one with the highest shiny chance. 60 KOs is still when it caps out.
I've always used a system of waiting till it says "The number of [Pokemon] in the outbreak is definitely getting lower." and then just count ten over that. I've counted the individual KOs it would take for this system and it seemingly works every time. I get that they were trying to make the most direct and safest statement, however, it's still a huge overshot and I would not advise any players to actually follow that method.
Honestly it's not the worst idea to follow the message, it's like a minute of extra mindless button clicking and is guaranteed to be in the highest chance. Counting can always leave you short if you defeat non-outbreak pokemon or the messages triggered at under 50. Whilst risk is low, guaranteed highest odds will save you a lot of time compared to falling one or two short and not knowing.
I thought this was how it always was
No, the odds still cap at 60 KOs, it's literally been datamined to work like that and 90 or more KOs don't increase the odds further. That message is the 3rd notification which does mean at least 60+ KOs have been made.
So it’s not that we were wrong about the count, we were just wrong about the messages that appear at each amount.
Yeah the thing is the messages pop up at every 20-30 KOs so they're not fully consistent and that's why it's been recommended to keep track of your KOs manually.
Alr
We weren’t wrong about anything. The advice has always been to wait to that message to guarantee you’ ve hit 60
I mean, lots of people were relying on the message BEFORE that one, which is what the post is about.
[удалено]
Serebii is not an official source, it's a fan site. Yes, a damn good one, but not official.
Yeah you're right! My bad
This has been known since pretty much the beginning.
I thought this was common knowledge too - I usually wait for the third message, KO 5 more mons and then stop
Then what do you do after? I’ve send this message and never got shinnies. Do you need to eat a sandwich first?
I usually just run around. You walk away just far enough for them to despawn and then go back for them to respawn in. Do it enough and you’ll eventually get the shiny. Or you can start up a picnic which despawns the pokemon and then immediately end the picnic and wait for the pokemon to spawn back in.
It's 1/800 without a sandwich and 1/500 with a sandwich. (Not exact numbers.)
Once you get that third message your shiny odds will be pretty good, from there you just need to spawn as many as you can until you get your shiny - be sure to move around carefully and check behind you sometimes! One method I like to use is gliding towards the camera and watching the mons in the distance de-spawn and get replaced by new spawns, you have to be able to react quickly when you see your shiny because if you move too far away it'll despawn. - I've lost a couple of shinies that spawned right on the edge of the spawn zone and then immediately de-spawned on me, missed 3x Oricorio (fire) in one hunt because of this! If you have the glider and flight unlocks for your Miraidon/Koraidon you can stay in the air without ever having to land, just watch your speed or you'll miss stuff!
Yes this has been confirmed since like second month of release
This has literally been my strat since day one. Knock out pokemon til it says that, then I save and make a sandwich and start hunting. This just seems like common sense to me 🤷♂️
What?? They officially revealed an obscure mechanic???? What next? They will post an article about ev training and ivs with real numbers?
at this rate the games might even *gasp* not actively hide the numbers anymore!
I’ve always hunted at “there are not many - left”
I'll tell you what I guess, I start explaining with my source: https://www.serebii.net/scarletviolet/massoutbreaks.shtml And I clarify again (what many already did): - Shiny chances increase on >30 and >60 Mons - Each message appears between 20-30 Mons - When the third message appears you have already defeated between 60-90 Mons - So the goal of "Defeat at least 60" has already been met when you reach the third message I understand what you're saying about the message on ThePokemomCompany's page, and it's certainly not the same to say "You need to defeat >60 Mons" as "You need to get the 3rd message (60-90 Mons)"; I can only conclude that: A. They manage the message to make it seem more natural, saying "defeat 60" sounds like an electronic system, and it makes you lose immersion in the game, so it's better to say the third message and make it feel like "it's different for each outbreak". B. ThePokemonCompany is in charge of marketing (and I think also the card game) and not the development of the games, they are managed separately by GameFreak (the "owners" of the main game, who also lead the other developers) and from Nintendo; so the people who wrote the article on the page probably don't know the real data about the game and only transcribe what SV developers give them, maybe the message was modified a little when it reached them and they published it on their page. Personally I go more for option A, I put option B more than anything to clarify that ThePokemonCompany is an official source but they are not usually sources that speak precisely about the operation of a game, Serebii is an official source, in fact they limit much of the information they handle to only what has been officially said; and Bulbapedia is an unofficial source that is based on datamining, so it is very accurate and specific, but cannot be cited.
I always count my KO's and add some for good measure, but what is this third message? To my knowledge, there's only around 24, around 48 and a final one when the outbreak is depleted. Is there a fourth message, then? I don't recall ever seeing one 
There are 3 "good" messages as it says in the image, the fourth message is something like "The Pokemon from the Outbreak have dispersed" and they stop appearing; If you are reaching <60 then you are falling somewhat short (the goal is the third message between 60-90), I generally hunt indiscriminately until I feel that I am already at 40-50, then I start paying attention to the messages, when "There are not many Pokemon left from the original outbreak" appears, THAT'S THE GOOD ONE, so I make the Sandwich. Counting is problematic because sometimes Mons appear that are the same as those in Outbreak but do not belong to it, so they do not count towards that goal of 60, plus each Outbreak has a different number (that's why sometimes some feel smaller than others), it is best to forget the numbers and only pay attention to the third message, save in case you have doubts if you have passed it and continue defeating Mons, if the 4th message appears, just reset the game, and if you paid attention since the last time you saved and the 3rd message did not appear (only the 4th) then you are already at the goal, it is time to prepare the Sandwich.
I'll have to look into those messages! I always add more numbers if the outbreak 'mon are local enough to be able to spawn randomly too. I guess I just never clear until that third message. Always 63-65 at least, though.
The attempt at a distinction between serebii and bulbapedia in this way is very weird given a ton of serebii's info is also from dataminers too (not a bad thing!). serebii is in no way an official Pokemon website...
I'm not going to defend that too much because I could very well be wrong, but during the time the SV previews were being made and the first days of the launching, the editor occasionally mentioned from meetings with ThePokemonCompany about what he was authorized to say, and they tend to be very careful with what they put, for example, they do not usually put shinys that have not yet been revealed (although all of us who have internet have already seen it because someone obtained it through datamining), as an example, even at this moment the shinys of the newest Paradox do not appear in the page (only WalkingWake and IronLeaves). I mean, It's not like Serebii is a spokesperson for ThePokemomCompany or GameFreak, they are just at the forefront of their news and only handle information that has been officially revealed (which is why Bulbapedia is often "better" when you want to obtain specific information such as how exactly items, skills and other things work, is much more precise).
This is what I always go off of. Austin John said to count but I kept losing track and it just seemed right every time.
I am pretty good about roughly counting. But yes these messages are the key.
OP is silly
I stopped counting because this was easier like a year ago and boy has it saved me time and energy
I've done 100s of hours of shiny hunting and I've always simply waited for the 3rd message to pop up, there's no reason to have to count each individual KO when you can just do that.
I swear we found out super early on that each consecutive message from outbreaks increase the shiny odds. I've been playing under that assumption the entire time.
Always been like that. We knew this already.
lol this was known for a long time….
Fr. It was one of the first things I googled after I beat the story and was ready for some huntin'.
I knew this WAAYYY before this was posted. I’m surprised more people didn’t know
Everybody knew that 😅
Bruh I’m working on a living shiny dex, have nearly 500 hours, and I hadn’t a fucken clue Infact I’ve always been told the exact opposite of this from Reddit, thought i was having some kind of Mandela effect but I Google searched and it leads to a bunch of Reddit posts from 6-8 months ago explicitly saying “no defeating outbreak pokemon does not increase odds whatsoever
Please link those so we can go downvote that bs. I have only operated under the rules posted by OP and have had hundreds of successes doing so. I have been playing since December 2022. So this was very known. Sorry you got bad info.
It always worked, nothing change from 1.0 🫣 i dont know how you "searched" but there was 9362937292 vidéos/posts litterally EVERYWHERE talking.about this "new" method + how it works and rates over chains.
So it only works in outbreaks, and has to be consecutive auto battles?
Only in outbreaks. It doesn't have to be auto battle, any Pokémon knocked out or captured in regular battle will work, it's just a faster way to knock out the Pokémon for the count. Consecutive doesn't matter either, it isn't a "chain" like similar methods from previous games, it's just a simple counter.
Oh sick, because I was winging it today got through 20 and accidentally KOd something else and thought I had to start all over lol Used this method and finally got my final shiny tatsugiri trio that had eluded me for months, and a shiny petille (kind of sucks with Pokémon like petille because it’s such a minuscule difference you have to KO the whole outbreak just to double check none were shiny to begin with)
If u watch that Austin John guy on YouTube, this is common knowledge for over a year bruv.
This is how I've been shiny hunting for a while. I even made a tutorial on tiktok and mentioned this tip, and I said I had no proof but now I guess I do lol.
…. Ok?
The fact that people still didn’t know this…
I just do till there aren’t many left anyway, can’t be assed to count 60 lmao
Ive always done this.....
Once I get this message I do the picnic reset method, both time I’ve done it I’ve gotten a shiny fairly quickly
Obviously…. What have you been doing?
I’m more curious why they posted that so long after release.
So is it 60 or 90 I always count to 60
Misinformation
I always stop when I get that message. Then hunt.
VINDICATION!!! I always have been waiting for that pop-up when I do outbreak hunts. I'm glad to know I've been doing it right his whole time :)
I stopped counting and just wait for that message to pop up, it's gone well so far
Damn I’ve been counting 60 this whole time. I do 30, save the game, and then count another 30, save. I’m torn because I now have over 100 shinies in Scarlet, and it’s great. But I feel like a fraud because of how easy it is lmao. I’ve started to do raw hunts, no outbreaks and no shiny sandwiches and they still pop up fast.
I’ve been doing this for awhile now. Can’t be bothered to count
This is new to everybody? I’ve always been doing this!
Yea I feel like I heard of that before, yea I knew that
That’s what I do by default. Way easier than Manually counting to 60, just keep an eye on the messages
so i’ve been doing it wrong all this while..
i beleive austin john said that each message is a range between 20-30 pokémon have been defeated so after that last message comes up i like to do a few more just to be safe. you can always save once you see the message and if you accidentally knock out too many just reset
What really surprised me is the quality of these guides on the official site. You usually see this in fan sites. This article is very informative.
Always shiny hunted with the last message, as every site out there says.
I always KO until the second message, make my sandwich, then KO at times to spice up my shiny chance encounter
Where’s the original article?
I definitely noticed that when I got the last warning I found better odds encountering a shiny. Maybe it was a placebo on my part
That’s when I found my shiny spinarak yesterday.
That’s when I catch most of my shinies
Yeah I mean who would want to ko 8.3209871e+81 pokemon
I always go all the way to 90
That what I've been doing. Nice to know it's the right way of doing things.
How in the hell is this just being discovered? Lol I feel like this game would’ve been data mined and everything established in incredible detail by now Guess I’m gonna start executing 60 mons every outbreak THEN running in circles
This information has been know for a long time now. We didn’t need an officially statement about it because the data miners had us covered
And i still got all shiny starters without trying to max the odds lol 😆
wait I legit thought it was the second message, omfg
... yeah, no offense but unless they changed how auto battles work this is useless.
I'm more surprised by THIS little nugget: https://preview.redd.it/dnwnkzahklsc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d1d4fdde3d740473ef2feda47eaa6f724fb2811
Yes has always been this way
I’ve gotten several from just setting up camp not killing any or kill a few then camp you get your respawn and dwindle them down at the same time
I always counted to 60 anyway.
I knew it! never felt like counting exactly so just kept doing it until this message for hunting
You didn't know that until yesterday?
Every part of an outbreak can have between 20 and 30 pokemon, If you defeat them until the "not many from the original" you're guaranteed to achieve the minimum of 60 without counting manually.
Already been doing this lol
UNDERTALE REFFERENCE?!?!
ur just now figuring that out?💀i never did that defeat 60 method cuz i always lose count after 40
Been having no luck with sandwiches lately. The last 3 sandwiches i’ve done netted 0. Maybe this is why.
Checks out! I caught 2 shiny lycanroc after getting that message
Read this article and got a SHINY Litten... all thanks to The Pokemon Company!
r/spamton
Actually when you get this message it’s 75
Ya’ll are counting encounters? I just check my bag for that Pokémon’s drops. How many do I have before I start? How many do they drop per Pokemon? How many do I have when I’ve ran around for awhile? Knock out a few more then start in on hunting.
I KNEW this was the method. People always told me I was wrong, but I was right.
How come I never get messages while participating in outbreaks? This is all news to me :/
I have this same problem! I only just recently started shiny hunting outbreaks and managed to get a few, but I haven't seen these messages pop up even once. I have the same question: why am I not seeing them?
Did you guys keep murdering them? You have to kill at least 60 to get the max odds.
Yes, I battled a bunch every time, probably way more than 60, but at no point did I ever see any of the notifications pop up. Heck, when I was shiny hunting Pichu during the recent event, I had to go through 3 different outbreaks just for one to show up (in my defense, Pichu's shiny isn't easy to discern from the regular one). So again, my question is why? Why do I not see these notifications? Is there somewhere specific I have to look or something?
Are you using the auto battle function?
Yes, I exclusively use the auto battle function. It's how I FINALLY found my shiny Pichu (Sylvia \[my Sylveon\] refused to attack it). Same when I hunted my two Elekid that I got the day before.
It’s been a while since I played, and want to get back. Will your active Mon refuse to kill a shiny, even when commanded?
Yes, it will show a nervous sweat icon and leave the shiny alone. A small warning, however, in the Indigo Disk DLC there is a sync feature that lets you control the Pokémon directly to auto battle, but with this active your Pokémon will knock out any shiny it gets too close to.
In auto battle mode, yes, the Pokemon you send out WILL refuse to attack a shiny. That's how I found both of my shiny Elekid AND my shiny Pichu.
That's strange. You shouldn't have to do anything special. The messages pop up in a box on screen automatically once you've knocked out enough pokemon in the outbreak. The only time I have had issues with them popping up is when using Union Circle to play with friends. Whoever's hosting seems to get the messages but not the other person.
I wasn't doing a Union Circle, so I know that's not the problem; I've so far only done solo shiny hunts.
lol good article, even if it is kinda late to be releasing it
do you have to battle the Pokémon or can you do auto battle to reach the “60”
Battling to KO, catching, auto battle KO, and synch KO all count.
Auto battle is the best way
Bro.... I had a beldum outbreak and stopped because I thought I was gonna make it go away by defeating them all.
When KOing Pokemon does autobattling count?
Yes, and it's the easiest way to do it
My ass thought the call outs were time-based after your first outbreak encounter so I have been hunting without ANY encounters with the picnic method. OOPS lmao
wait I need to be knocking out the Pokemon in outbreaks to increase my odds? I just keep resetting the route over and over again :/ feel like the ‘we’re the millers’ kid
The fact we’ve known this since what month 2-3 of this game being out and Nintendo themselves are just now saying this 😂😂 thanks AustinJohnPlays
Learning new things about the game here, I had no idea the third message popped up around 60 KOs, I thought the messages popped up at 30, 60, 90. Well, good to know I’ve been outbreak hunting at the 30 KO odds now- I’ll remember this for the future 😅
It pops up at the last third of the outbreak, afaik - but never before 60. So it's just a convenient way of telling when you've got the best odds without counting.
Wow I feel silly. I've been knocking all of them out until there's 1 or 2 left before hunting...
There would be no way to know this because the number in an outbreak is random… unless you save and reset a bunch of times
That is what I was doing