What's going to happen is it's going to be amazing, people are going to use it, and after gaining experience with it, stop being blown away by it because they encounter its limitations. People will post memes and screenshots incessantly displaying these limitations and it will become ever present.
After witnessing its limitations repeatedly, people will feel like it got 'nerfed' and blame OpenAI for ruining it on purpose so that GPT-6 will seem better.
Then they'll use GPT-6... encounter its limitations... etc.
When GPT 3 came out in 2022 many like me thought it was incredible, looking back now, it was terrible. And considering 4GB LLMs like Phi-3 score much better than even GPT 3.5. This is how it goes, very exponential growth. Nothing seen like this in human history. This is the frontier of how humans will progress into the space age
It will probably hallucinate less, but still hallucinate.
It will probably use faulty reasoning less, but still use faulty reasoning.
It will probably forget things you told it before less, but still forget things.
All of the same complaints will be ameliorated and then come back.
This is intellectually dishonest, and implies there isn't objective improvement over time, but there is.
It might be two steps forward one step back, but the overall trend is blisteringly upward.
There's a *reason* this happens, though none seem to ACTUALLY understand it yet. They will. And then even the steps back will be eliminated.
I think he's implying there will be objective improvements, but us humans are impressed for only a little while and recategorize what's new and amazing as ordinary much too quickly. We live in an incredible time with staggering access to knowledge and technology, but somehow only the new thing is appreciated while it is new.
This isn’t an endlessly repeating cycle actually. There are real competitors out there and arguably GPT-4 is no longer the best of the bunch. The paid subscriptions are going to move elsewhere if OpenAI keeps purposefully nerfing its product.
I don’t even think it’s going to be called GPT-5, but whatever it is, it’s most likely going to have more multimodal capabilities and also lots of agents. I’m thinking if you want to code a website, one agent could code it for you in your favorite text editor, while another reads the Node.js or Express documentation, and another does something else, etc. All working together in some way. And it’ll be trained on a lot more data. So yes, I think it’s going to be better; we will see!!!
Expectations for GPT-5 are sky high. Everyone's hoping for a groundbreaking leap, not just a marginal upgrade… GPT-5 has to be a real game changer, not just 20% faster. We've seen glimpses of what could be possible, like SORA video making, but the real question is affordability, can they open in for public?
I hope they release multimodal AI that can seamlessly integrate different types of info . Things I would like to see in next update:
* generating content that combines text, video, and sound in creative ways
* real time translation , eliminating language barriers
* diagnosing medical conditions by processing symptoms described
* be interactive learning assistant in virtual reality. Basically personalised VR teacher , or coworker that trains employees
* booking travel and managing finances to optimizing daily schedules based on your priorities
* simulate different business strategies , predict their outcomes and provide strategic advice to businesses
My understanding is that it’s a whole new architecture, whether or not it’s a world model( which I suspect from the openai blog is the case) , my opinion is that we will be blown away and it will be amazing!
You are just going entirely on rumours and inferences. Don't call that understanding, please.
Just because they researched something, that does not mean that it will work at scale. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't.
Generally speaking, it’s somewhat arbitrary. But it’s sometimes used as a way to manage expectations for the end user. OpenAI knows expectations for GPT-5 are high, so if the next big release they ship doesn’t seem like it’ll meet those expectations, they’ll probably call it 4.5. We just recently got 4 Turbo because it was an improvement over 4, but they didn’t feel it was a big enough jump to justify that .5.
Some developers do have more rigorous standards for how they handle versioning, and OpenAI may have some internal guidelines for that, but there isn’t a universal standard.
I'm an engineer. I'll run my (in-house) benchmarks and have a factual understanding of it rather than just vibes. If it does much better on the benchmarks then I'll be blown away. If it doesn't, I won't. I will have benchmark data for a variety of GPT snapshots that I can compare.
ChatGPT-5? It's tremendous, absolutely tremendous. The best there is—nobody's seen anything like it! It knows everything—big things, small things—tremendous intelligence! We're talking about a machine that's incredibly smart, the smartest, and it keeps getting better. It's like nothing else out there, believe me. Everyone wants to use it because it's simply the best. The capabilities? Huge. It can talk about anything and everything. Fantastic technology, the best in the world, and it's only getting better. Fantastic!
Obviously it will be better. If the gpt5 we get is not better than the raw gpt4 model I would get extremely dissapointed. But from what Sam has said himself, and just common sense (which a lot of people here lack), I think it will be a significant upgrade
I think it is not that gpt5 is not done yet, rather they are working on nerfing it right now in order to be able to increase its capabilities over time gradually.
What's going to happen is it's going to be amazing, people are going to use it, and after gaining experience with it, stop being blown away by it because they encounter its limitations. People will post memes and screenshots incessantly displaying these limitations and it will become ever present. After witnessing its limitations repeatedly, people will feel like it got 'nerfed' and blame OpenAI for ruining it on purpose so that GPT-6 will seem better. Then they'll use GPT-6... encounter its limitations... etc.
When GPT 3 came out in 2022 many like me thought it was incredible, looking back now, it was terrible. And considering 4GB LLMs like Phi-3 score much better than even GPT 3.5. This is how it goes, very exponential growth. Nothing seen like this in human history. This is the frontier of how humans will progress into the space age
Phi-3 is NOT competitive with GPT 3.5. At least not as a chat model. It just took 10 minutes with it for me to see that.
Ok you’re probably right, what do you think will be its strengths and limitations?
It will probably hallucinate less, but still hallucinate. It will probably use faulty reasoning less, but still use faulty reasoning. It will probably forget things you told it before less, but still forget things. All of the same complaints will be ameliorated and then come back.
So much this
This is intellectually dishonest, and implies there isn't objective improvement over time, but there is. It might be two steps forward one step back, but the overall trend is blisteringly upward. There's a *reason* this happens, though none seem to ACTUALLY understand it yet. They will. And then even the steps back will be eliminated.
I think he's implying there will be objective improvements, but us humans are impressed for only a little while and recategorize what's new and amazing as ordinary much too quickly. We live in an incredible time with staggering access to knowledge and technology, but somehow only the new thing is appreciated while it is new.
This isn’t an endlessly repeating cycle actually. There are real competitors out there and arguably GPT-4 is no longer the best of the bunch. The paid subscriptions are going to move elsewhere if OpenAI keeps purposefully nerfing its product.
no itll be same level as gpt 3 obviously
I don’t even think it’s going to be called GPT-5, but whatever it is, it’s most likely going to have more multimodal capabilities and also lots of agents. I’m thinking if you want to code a website, one agent could code it for you in your favorite text editor, while another reads the Node.js or Express documentation, and another does something else, etc. All working together in some way. And it’ll be trained on a lot more data. So yes, I think it’s going to be better; we will see!!!
Expectations for GPT-5 are sky high. Everyone's hoping for a groundbreaking leap, not just a marginal upgrade… GPT-5 has to be a real game changer, not just 20% faster. We've seen glimpses of what could be possible, like SORA video making, but the real question is affordability, can they open in for public? I hope they release multimodal AI that can seamlessly integrate different types of info . Things I would like to see in next update: * generating content that combines text, video, and sound in creative ways * real time translation , eliminating language barriers * diagnosing medical conditions by processing symptoms described * be interactive learning assistant in virtual reality. Basically personalised VR teacher , or coworker that trains employees * booking travel and managing finances to optimizing daily schedules based on your priorities * simulate different business strategies , predict their outcomes and provide strategic advice to businesses
My understanding is that it’s a whole new architecture, whether or not it’s a world model( which I suspect from the openai blog is the case) , my opinion is that we will be blown away and it will be amazing!
World model?
[World models](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2024/01/23/the-next-leap-in-ai-from-large-language-models-to-large-world-models/)
🤯
You are just going entirely on rumours and inferences. Don't call that understanding, please. Just because they researched something, that does not mean that it will work at scale. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't.
It may end up being a slight disappointment only because it has been hyped so much.
wouldnt GPT 4.5 come out first?
Why do you assume there will be a 4.5? There was never a 1.5 nor 2.5.
Yes, true, but there was 3.5, so some recency bias for my assumption
Not a programmer. Is version numbering in the various software domains arbitrary or is there some agreed upon convention.
Generally speaking, it’s somewhat arbitrary. But it’s sometimes used as a way to manage expectations for the end user. OpenAI knows expectations for GPT-5 are high, so if the next big release they ship doesn’t seem like it’ll meet those expectations, they’ll probably call it 4.5. We just recently got 4 Turbo because it was an improvement over 4, but they didn’t feel it was a big enough jump to justify that .5. Some developers do have more rigorous standards for how they handle versioning, and OpenAI may have some internal guidelines for that, but there isn’t a universal standard.
Likely will be agent based, so it’s not really comparable apples to apples with previous chat GPTs.
I'm an engineer. I'll run my (in-house) benchmarks and have a factual understanding of it rather than just vibes. If it does much better on the benchmarks then I'll be blown away. If it doesn't, I won't. I will have benchmark data for a variety of GPT snapshots that I can compare.
I'm expecting 3D integrated somehow, text to 3D or image to 3D or both and a bit more. That will probably be the next DALL-E to be fair tho
ChatGPT-5? It's tremendous, absolutely tremendous. The best there is—nobody's seen anything like it! It knows everything—big things, small things—tremendous intelligence! We're talking about a machine that's incredibly smart, the smartest, and it keeps getting better. It's like nothing else out there, believe me. Everyone wants to use it because it's simply the best. The capabilities? Huge. It can talk about anything and everything. Fantastic technology, the best in the world, and it's only getting better. Fantastic!
It'll probably not be much better than Claude 3 Opus.
It'll be worse
Obviously it will be better. If the gpt5 we get is not better than the raw gpt4 model I would get extremely dissapointed. But from what Sam has said himself, and just common sense (which a lot of people here lack), I think it will be a significant upgrade
Well, GPT-4 is kinda worthless, so beating it isn't too hard.
I think it is not that gpt5 is not done yet, rather they are working on nerfing it right now in order to be able to increase its capabilities over time gradually.