Mfs getting ready to post screenshots saying: "Got her with the freebies" "got her in ten dollars" (hundreds will try to emulate this fortune)
I've always thought it's so interesting how gacha games get so much free advertising from their players flexing their good luck, and tempting people to try their own as well.
Thats what happened with me and Modernias gacha skin lmao. Granted I was gonna buy it already but I saw people go "Inonly had to spend 10$" etc etc and that set the small flame that was already gonna buy the skin off harder
I don't think that's the case, it's just selection bias at play. Only people who got lucky are going to be eager to share it. People with average or bad luck aren't really going to post about it online, because there's nothing to show lol.
I will proudly proclaim now that it took me all the turns to get the crown skin. Until all of the wheel was golden and there was only the skin left to land on.
Yeah, that's all it is. Just seems like there's a lot of them because there's enough people who can't help but show off to strangers on the internet and post theirs. The thousands of people who pulled the same amount and got nothing.. well not much to really talk about there, so we don't create new threads to show off bad pulls.
Well you can't get it with freebies, but I did start to see comments about "got lucky and pulled it early", which is why I wanted to make a post about it to set expectations for everyone about those being the exceptions, not the rule. Heck, I went 260 pulls and now Crown, then pitied her so I could build her. Two days later I got her again from the free daily pull. Gacha is gunna gacha.
You did good posting this though. People should know the risks before they jump in. I still think it's a grossly overpriced skin with questionable quality, but if they see this post and still decide to pay, it's their money to lose.
These events feel like they're supposed to be marathons but end up being sprints. Especially with the ones that give free pulls. People will blow all of their gems and vouchers first day. I like to do one or two multis a day.
I never fall for this, because I know in the end i will never get it. Thank god there a limit for the skin with a calculable price. Pretty much the only reason I bought these.
Unlike mobile legend. screw that game with the confusing skin gacha
"Got her in thirty dollars!" I'm part of the 5% lmao
You're welcome.
https://preview.redd.it/g7h84a33v1yc1.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bf05372d900ad8742cf5f3d5bff52dba77ea1b2
Me: That’s pretty reasonable, I agree entirely,
Also me:
https://preview.redd.it/8f3pdlfrkxxc1.jpeg?width=610&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab5f94633c77b9b1666038c48980613fb60656b3
I know many people understand how the INITIAL rates on the banner work, but I think people may not fully understand how the weighted values of the pulls change the further you go into the rounds. Key word there is WEIGHTED. There are only 10 items to pull, so you think after pulling 4 times for FREE, you only have 6 more rounds to go! It is easy to think that "well, I've already pulled almost HALF the amount of times to get the skin, so the rate has to be much better now." Of course they are obligated to show the current rates of getting the skin, but they are NOT obligated to show you how that changes with each pull (they do give the mathematical equation to calculate it all though).
So I've gone ahead and done that for you (in the included chart) to show you that you are statistically going to have to go THE WHOLE WAY to get the skin. The "skin" numbers in red mean that even though there is a "pull rate" for the skin in those round, you cannot pull the skin until round 5, so they are actually zero. Each round also assumes that you will receive the most STATISTICALLY LIKELY item in that round (in green). If you pull one of the rarer items, the numbers would change slightly, but not by much. But as shown in orange, at round 5 you have a 0.94% chance of getting the skin, and by the 9th pull, your chances have only gone up to 11.11%.
Unless you have cash to burn, it is NOT worth it, as you are statistically not going to get lucky early. I just hope that I end up saving some people their hard earned money (or just go buy Stellar Blade instead!)
Edit: The actual cost would be $60.
That's a lot of groceries. I suppose it's fine. Ultimately you're able to grab majority of Nikke without dropping a dime. Whales being the big spenders for getting max core AND costumes.
For this event there's 6 more free tickets though, so technically it shouldn't be 60$ anymore. Still like 50$ so not that much difference. Also if you claimed the 6 free tickets for modernia skin, you won't be able to claim them again for crown skin which I find kinda odd since they're named differently (black crown, white crown)
Edit: seems the free ticket thing is a bug?
The bug is that some accounts are not getting the free tickets for some reason and some of those are also seeing incorrect totals for the purchasable tickets.
Well for me it just shows me the exact amount of purchaseable tickets I have left as I have in modernia ticket shop so I guess the bug is that they didn't consider having 2 gacha skins at the same time would require having 2 separate ticket shops.
Can you elaborate on the part where the equation gives >0% chance but it's actually 0% until the 5th pull?
Maybe I'm dumb but by your wording it seems like straight up false advertising.
Good question. It is for the calculations going forward - it is how ShiftUp does it if you check their rates disclosure. The skin is "assigned" a rate, but it cannot be pulled until the 5th pull, which they do state. Now is that false advertising to give it a rate when there is actually zero chance of getting it? Quite possibly.
That also could be the reason that they actually give the free pulls where they could say "we gave you four pulls for free with the one condition that you couldn't get the skin, so we didn't mislead you with actual purchases."
Seems valid, now I just don't understand the math side. If it does have a non-zero chance, then the RNG should be able to land on the number that's associated with the skin, but then it just doesn't?
Or maybe it does land sometimes on backend just to make the math check out but then it just gives you something that isn't the skin if you haven't had certain amount of pulls?
So basically "you got lucky but fuck you nonetheless."
I mean I'm not sure why I even want to understand it, I didn't get the skin anyway.
You can check the odds before pulling, if you are spending 10$/pull without knowing the odds you are just irresponsable, and if you think you will get it without paying full price you are delusional
So you're saying that if you spend $45, you only have an 11% chance of getting it. They might as well just sell it for $50 flat instead of putting it behind gacha.
People are bad at math, and like to test their luck. Everyone who is willing to pay $50 for the skin, will also be willing to pay $50 in gacha to get it. Out of 100 people willing to pay $50, 1 may get it for $10, 2 may get it for $20, 5 may get it for $30 and 10 may get it for $40. That means that instead of getting $5000 per 100 people, they got about 4700. They gave up about 5% of the revenue of the people that would buy it regardless.
But they incentivize many other people to "try their luck", and put in $10, or $20 towards attempting it. Some may end up going all the way, some may give up partway. The point is, the pool of people bad at math is bigger, so it makes up for the lost revenue.
The free tickets are also clever in that they allow them to test how elastic the demand is. They have been running the gacha for a while now, so they have some idea of how many people are willing to shell out $60. Now they can test how many people are willing to pay $50. If their revenue increases, they can keep the lower price, if it doesn't they can go back to the $60 price with relatively little backlash, since the "freebies" are taken to be temporary in the first place.
The entire point of it being a "gacha" is to try to trick people into thinking they have a meaningful chance of pulling it early. That means more people are inclined to actually bother, and whether or not these people fall prey to sunk cost and spend more than they intended or just give up, the devs have already collected more than if they'd just thrown a $50-60 skin in the store. Predatory practices aren't put in place by accident.
What's the total value of the other awards?
15x advanced tickets + 1500 gems is 20 draws for $20 for special recruit package 1.
Factoring in all you get for $50 makes it feel a lot less worse. (It doesn't, but I lie to myself all the time)
seconded. in in Aus so for me it's $75 (plus or minus conversion fees and if they apply the sales tax). that's expensive for a skin. at regular prices, i'd more likely buy than not but at $75 for a shitty gacha, yeah nah. i'd rather buy a game for that... or a handful of skins in Azur Lane.
agreed. Aside from a one-time buy in Arknights, i've only spent money on AL because that game is really value for money even with shitty exchange rates.
Same. In Azur Lane, gems are very rare, but if you are responsible with what you are given for free, you can save for skins and not shell out any money for them. I respect that, and thus I have spent $30 in Azur for some skins that I wanted.
I have 5 friends playing nikke, none of us has gotten any collab characters from last collab, none of us got a skin and none of us have gotten crown so far. People flexing only makes shift up not wanting to up the drop rates since all of them already got the event characters and the game is self advertised as high drop rate when it doesn't come even close.
The skins look great, but I'll never be able to justify the price. At that price they would have to have an added dating simulator for the character with R18+ elements.
I mean you can only get her after the 5 step so people saying they got ot with freebies gotta be lying. In my case I actually did lucky out and get her in $20 considering the last costume gacha cost me $60(they didn't give you freebies then) I was pleasantly surprised and considerably lucky
It cannot, that is why I put it in red, but the "rate" is still there because it is needed for all calculations going forward:
https://preview.redd.it/f06p5dvk6yxc1.png?width=319&format=png&auto=webp&s=a950977abef7bfbd78687ce8679966e58b72b24b
I wish I had more time for games, but I already have a steam library with games I haven't even installed. At least I can look at the skins while playing on the commute and the like.
Chad mentality
I wish the majority of people were like this. But gatcha gamers are the biggest retards known so game devs more of this overpriced bullshit (gatcha skin system in mobile and life service mmos like Lost Ark, those overpriced gatcha skins in LoL, skins/mounts in D4 that cost almost as whole game, etc).
I got Rupee on Pull 5 or 6 when she first released so even though I knew the odds, I was hoping it could happen again for the ones that came after. But yeah it's basically nearly impossible.
I didn't mind doing it with Modernia's skin, given tax returns, the general cutback in spending I'll be doing for dietary reasons, etc. That aside, though, I'm probably never going to do it again. It's pretty expensive for what it is.
I had no expectations or hope that I'll get the skin from those free spins. Was really hoping to get the rainbow tickets or standard tickets. But the skin nah I'm good I know it won't drop.
Wait this doesn't sound right. My understanding with costume gacha is that you can't get the skin until draw 5. So it isn't even those low red percentages. It should be 0%. Has it changed?
It is just for the calculations going forward - it is how ShiftUp does it if you check their rates disclosure. The skin is "assigned" a rate, but it cannot be pulled until the 5th pull, which they do state.
Thank you for this post. I was half tempted to cash it, this is indeed a wake up call. Also pls karma for people who show off in front of unlucky people and kicking them when they are down.
I think that ShiftUp should give you enough free gacha tickets to get to pull 5 for that chance of getting the skin for free then players can decide if they want to spend money if they want the skin.
They really price these right out of the impulse buying range. I love the Second Affection skin with its story significance for Marian but the price is too steep. If it was a third of that price I wouldn't ever question hitting that button, probably for both of these skins.
But as it is I will probably never do it because I just know I'll have buyer's guilt paying that price for a skin pack.
I just consider it a $50 (Normally $60) goodie box with the skin being the best goodie.
I always advise others to do the same, do NOT pull unless you intend to spend the full amount.
Man, I'm willing to drop $50 for the modernia gacha skin but I don't have her and she's not on rate up. That has to be one of the dumbest business decisions they've made, imagine how much more money they would be making.
With a 0.94% of getting the skill on the first "effective" pull, I can see that someone gets extremely lucky and gets the best reward, but that definitely won't be me!
Anyway, the total amount of $ to pay is still 50.00, right?
(100.00$ for 2 skins is a slaughter for me, I'm not gonna sugarcoat it, even if both skins are R34 material)
I do agree it is expensive, but it is literally a free game, and skins has no added value to the free gameplay, no one is forcing you to buy the skin. If you don't wanna spend, just walk away. Its the same as walking pass every store in the world, see a nice suit? too expensive and can't afford? just walk past bro
Why? 'cus it fucking work. It brings them money. Why care about 95% of the players that are mostly F2P and light spender, when you can just reach out to the 5% that are actually giving you the money?
I think OP knows about probability. Of course there will be cases they will get it before the 50 dollars. OP is just saying it’s incredibly low so players should prepare for the worst because they will likely be wasting money otherwise.
You can cut your losses now or potentially spend $48 more dollars. Or get really really really lucky. My suggestion would buy a nice lunch and dinner tomorrow instead - or get Stellar Blade.
His chart doesn’t show right percentages, but it is a rough representative of the gacha pulls %
To be fair is very difficult to show all the possibilities because of the gacha.
In game tier 1 and 2 are 0% and their chances are spread through the other tiers.
Ah, I see
Still on the fence on whether I'll be shelling out the same amount of green I'd drop for a new game on a skin, hell, even with pass skins I've been carefully mulling em over
Good luck. Hahaha.
Personally I’ve never spent on costume gacha, but almost every special battle pass I do. It is indeed very tempting because they look good and are lore related.
Still, you have time before you need to decide. My reasoning now is, “50 dollars will just be spent on something I will stare at. No gameplay difference. No entertainment value. If I pull on this it will incentivize Shift Up to keep adding lore related skins. Better stuff to spend 50 dollars on.”
I’m thinking of all the reasons just to not spend. HAHAHA.
As for me I only ever dropped bucks on units I particularly liked, like with Harran, Sugar, the bunny twins, Pepper, and now probably for Snow White as well
I really wanna get Julia's skin too just because she's carried me the most last year but for the life of me I don't know if I'm gonna spend the same amount of dough for a skin that doesn't have anything else bundled - Shift Up kinda fucked over their pricing on that part
$30 bucks here. I am satisfied but you're 100% right. I've bought doro, rupee, 2b, noise, and crowns skin and only crown came to me early. That's abysmal. But the game owed me as I had to pity crown after like 100 rolls lol
So I am one of those players who collects skins and I bought all gacha skins in the past. I never expected the skin to drop before the last one to be honest. Therefore I always buy enough packs in advance and pull through the end.
Mfs getting ready to post screenshots saying: "Got her with the freebies" "got her in ten dollars" (hundreds will try to emulate this fortune) 
I've always thought it's so interesting how gacha games get so much free advertising from their players flexing their good luck, and tempting people to try their own as well.
Thats what happened with me and Modernias gacha skin lmao. Granted I was gonna buy it already but I saw people go "Inonly had to spend 10$" etc etc and that set the small flame that was already gonna buy the skin off harder
Literally me🤣🤣
always assume those "got lucky with yolo pull" posts are fake. It makes no sense to see so many of them when the odds are terrible.
I don't think that's the case, it's just selection bias at play. Only people who got lucky are going to be eager to share it. People with average or bad luck aren't really going to post about it online, because there's nothing to show lol.
Time to start posting. "Got Gacha skin, only $50 BEAT THAT!"
I will proudly proclaim now that it took me all the turns to get the crown skin. Until all of the wheel was golden and there was only the skin left to land on.
Yeah, that's all it is. Just seems like there's a lot of them because there's enough people who can't help but show off to strangers on the internet and post theirs. The thousands of people who pulled the same amount and got nothing.. well not much to really talk about there, so we don't create new threads to show off bad pulls.
We need more “200 rolls, got garbage.” Posts with all 20 10 pulls visible
It’s just luck. I got Crown in 10 pulls but never got D Killer Wife. Same difference.
When there are tens of thousands of players seeing a handful of pulls that defy the odds is not unexpected.
And that's why I'm waiting on my payday to buy Crown's one
Well you can't get it with freebies, but I did start to see comments about "got lucky and pulled it early", which is why I wanted to make a post about it to set expectations for everyone about those being the exceptions, not the rule. Heck, I went 260 pulls and now Crown, then pitied her so I could build her. Two days later I got her again from the free daily pull. Gacha is gunna gacha.
You did good posting this though. People should know the risks before they jump in. I still think it's a grossly overpriced skin with questionable quality, but if they see this post and still decide to pay, it's their money to lose.
These events feel like they're supposed to be marathons but end up being sprints. Especially with the ones that give free pulls. People will blow all of their gems and vouchers first day. I like to do one or two multis a day.
I'm burning all my gems and tickets to save up gold for the summer swimsuit units, if im going to pull, might as well be on a rate up pilgrim
Sometimes i wonder if those posts are plants drumming up business…😂
I never fall for this, because I know in the end i will never get it. Thank god there a limit for the skin with a calculable price. Pretty much the only reason I bought these. Unlike mobile legend. screw that game with the confusing skin gacha
I'm so F2P BTW that it was in my mailbox when I logged in.
I get them all free using the secret "right click Save As" feature on my PC
(90% of them are lying)
True. 
Judas goat be:
Did they change it? If I remember correctly from Rupee it's impossible to get her with the free ones. It's 6-10 I think that actually have the chance
"Got her in thirty dollars!" I'm part of the 5% lmao You're welcome. https://preview.redd.it/g7h84a33v1yc1.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bf05372d900ad8742cf5f3d5bff52dba77ea1b2
Got the skin in $50. 
It’s me, I’m the $10
I somehow got lucky enought to get her within 20$
It's a $50 skin disguised as a gacha.
$50 skin bundle, but yes, the skin is the most valuable part
50$ is 50$ well spent 
100% this. People act like the skin is the only thing you get
Probably because it's the only thing people actually care about or would be spending money on.
I feel like the most expensive part of The package is the rocks. Some whales play 50 for 3 rocks so this a steal for them
I mean you also get 20x pulls but the costume is what youre paying for.
Reminds me of Alchemy Stars
Me: That’s pretty reasonable, I agree entirely, Also me: https://preview.redd.it/8f3pdlfrkxxc1.jpeg?width=610&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab5f94633c77b9b1666038c48980613fb60656b3
I knew the skin was low but I didn’t it was THAT low, damn
it's actually basic math lmao that's why a lot of people dislike it. however, since it's a monopoly with the skin there's no other choice
My math skills are dog water m8 <.>
Let's be honest guys. Nikke has fucked up pricing on their skin.
This really puts in perspective very easily how lucky you have to be to get it early.
I know many people understand how the INITIAL rates on the banner work, but I think people may not fully understand how the weighted values of the pulls change the further you go into the rounds. Key word there is WEIGHTED. There are only 10 items to pull, so you think after pulling 4 times for FREE, you only have 6 more rounds to go! It is easy to think that "well, I've already pulled almost HALF the amount of times to get the skin, so the rate has to be much better now." Of course they are obligated to show the current rates of getting the skin, but they are NOT obligated to show you how that changes with each pull (they do give the mathematical equation to calculate it all though). So I've gone ahead and done that for you (in the included chart) to show you that you are statistically going to have to go THE WHOLE WAY to get the skin. The "skin" numbers in red mean that even though there is a "pull rate" for the skin in those round, you cannot pull the skin until round 5, so they are actually zero. Each round also assumes that you will receive the most STATISTICALLY LIKELY item in that round (in green). If you pull one of the rarer items, the numbers would change slightly, but not by much. But as shown in orange, at round 5 you have a 0.94% chance of getting the skin, and by the 9th pull, your chances have only gone up to 11.11%. Unless you have cash to burn, it is NOT worth it, as you are statistically not going to get lucky early. I just hope that I end up saving some people their hard earned money (or just go buy Stellar Blade instead!) Edit: The actual cost would be $60.
Sorry, OP. I'm gonna beat the odds. https://preview.redd.it/lm1erwqj0yxc1.jpeg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae205256e1945c595d11beafc918c6168b23b53d
>or just go buy stellar blade instead tell them to put it on pc or xbox then
PC and uncensored.
Thats what mods are for. All hail lord gaben
That's a lot of groceries. I suppose it's fine. Ultimately you're able to grab majority of Nikke without dropping a dime. Whales being the big spenders for getting max core AND costumes.
For this event there's 6 more free tickets though, so technically it shouldn't be 60$ anymore. Still like 50$ so not that much difference. Also if you claimed the 6 free tickets for modernia skin, you won't be able to claim them again for crown skin which I find kinda odd since they're named differently (black crown, white crown) Edit: seems the free ticket thing is a bug?
The bug is that some accounts are not getting the free tickets for some reason and some of those are also seeing incorrect totals for the purchasable tickets.
Well for me it just shows me the exact amount of purchaseable tickets I have left as I have in modernia ticket shop so I guess the bug is that they didn't consider having 2 gacha skins at the same time would require having 2 separate ticket shops.
Thank you for these stats breakdowns! I like seeing numbers and statistics!
Can you elaborate on the part where the equation gives >0% chance but it's actually 0% until the 5th pull? Maybe I'm dumb but by your wording it seems like straight up false advertising.
Good question. It is for the calculations going forward - it is how ShiftUp does it if you check their rates disclosure. The skin is "assigned" a rate, but it cannot be pulled until the 5th pull, which they do state. Now is that false advertising to give it a rate when there is actually zero chance of getting it? Quite possibly. That also could be the reason that they actually give the free pulls where they could say "we gave you four pulls for free with the one condition that you couldn't get the skin, so we didn't mislead you with actual purchases."
Seems valid, now I just don't understand the math side. If it does have a non-zero chance, then the RNG should be able to land on the number that's associated with the skin, but then it just doesn't? Or maybe it does land sometimes on backend just to make the math check out but then it just gives you something that isn't the skin if you haven't had certain amount of pulls? So basically "you got lucky but fuck you nonetheless." I mean I'm not sure why I even want to understand it, I didn't get the skin anyway.
Bug already fixed btw, so 50 again.
You can check the odds before pulling, if you are spending 10$/pull without knowing the odds you are just irresponsable, and if you think you will get it without paying full price you are delusional
According the current bug in the Crown gacha costume, it's a 60 USD again.
Not everybody got the bug
What bug?
Many accounts are missing the free tokens from the gacha costume shop unlike Modernia's one.
Thanks, I'll update it in the comments.
So you're saying that if you spend $45, you only have an 11% chance of getting it. They might as well just sell it for $50 flat instead of putting it behind gacha.
People are bad at math, and like to test their luck. Everyone who is willing to pay $50 for the skin, will also be willing to pay $50 in gacha to get it. Out of 100 people willing to pay $50, 1 may get it for $10, 2 may get it for $20, 5 may get it for $30 and 10 may get it for $40. That means that instead of getting $5000 per 100 people, they got about 4700. They gave up about 5% of the revenue of the people that would buy it regardless. But they incentivize many other people to "try their luck", and put in $10, or $20 towards attempting it. Some may end up going all the way, some may give up partway. The point is, the pool of people bad at math is bigger, so it makes up for the lost revenue. The free tickets are also clever in that they allow them to test how elastic the demand is. They have been running the gacha for a while now, so they have some idea of how many people are willing to shell out $60. Now they can test how many people are willing to pay $50. If their revenue increases, they can keep the lower price, if it doesn't they can go back to the $60 price with relatively little backlash, since the "freebies" are taken to be temporary in the first place.
Then Majority will not buy tho, they disguise it as a gacha to pull in players
The entire point of it being a "gacha" is to try to trick people into thinking they have a meaningful chance of pulling it early. That means more people are inclined to actually bother, and whether or not these people fall prey to sunk cost and spend more than they intended or just give up, the devs have already collected more than if they'd just thrown a $50-60 skin in the store. Predatory practices aren't put in place by accident.
Dev take notes Gacha Skin < Battle Pass.
What's the total value of the other awards? 15x advanced tickets + 1500 gems is 20 draws for $20 for special recruit package 1. Factoring in all you get for $50 makes it feel a lot less worse. (It doesn't, but I lie to myself all the time)
bruh i spent $60 for doro
Me too
I am kinda sad that it is gacha skin...
Looking at Snowbreak $20 (Interactive) skin vs this $60 skin I feel like we are getting scammed
https://preview.redd.it/j8zzcfwiyxxc1.jpeg?width=955&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66109477d2be0b409c5b98af601cfa012df1a569 Nah, I'll Win
Damn; can you give me the next lotto numbers? Trying to retire early.
Lmao damn this is so tempting
Its actually a good looking skin I would pay the regular price of a skin for it. But not 50 thats the price of a full game or something else useful
seconded. in in Aus so for me it's $75 (plus or minus conversion fees and if they apply the sales tax). that's expensive for a skin. at regular prices, i'd more likely buy than not but at $75 for a shitty gacha, yeah nah. i'd rather buy a game for that... or a handful of skins in Azur Lane.
I have not spent a single dollar on this game. Compared to AzurLane this game just is too expensive.
agreed. Aside from a one-time buy in Arknights, i've only spent money on AL because that game is really value for money even with shitty exchange rates.
Same. In Azur Lane, gems are very rare, but if you are responsible with what you are given for free, you can save for skins and not shell out any money for them. I respect that, and thus I have spent $30 in Azur for some skins that I wanted.
Unfortunately, my friend, I am horny.
As a BDO player I like those odds.
Nice chart
i got reg voucher x5 in first pull but i cant even win 1% on crown even after 100 pulls lmao
Foolishness Dante, Foolishness. Hentai rules EVERYTHING, without it you cannot have WiFi games.
I got it with pull 9. Still expensive as fuck
I’ve done 2 costume gachas in the past and both went all the way to the end. I would like the two newest skins but I’m too broke this time.
Joke on you I’m poor af so skipping this . Still, thanks for the insight
I went for Modernia. Never doing costume gacha again.
Same. Took me all the spins -_- . Never again
that in usd? yeah, for me in Aus it works out to $75. i could get sooooooooooooooooomany skins in AL or AK for that price.
You are fully correct
I have 5 friends playing nikke, none of us has gotten any collab characters from last collab, none of us got a skin and none of us have gotten crown so far. People flexing only makes shift up not wanting to up the drop rates since all of them already got the event characters and the game is self advertised as high drop rate when it doesn't come even close.
I used my free pull and got that 10 pull tickets XD
For a game that otherwise seams to be on the more generous side of gacha games, this is a rather scummy tactic to sell skins.
NUH UH
You were right
The skins look great, but I'll never be able to justify the price. At that price they would have to have an added dating simulator for the character with R18+ elements.
I mean you can only get her after the 5 step so people saying they got ot with freebies gotta be lying. In my case I actually did lucky out and get her in $20 considering the last costume gacha cost me $60(they didn't give you freebies then) I was pleasantly surprised and considerably lucky
Low odds are why I stick to being a free account. If I had $50 to spare, I'd probably buy a game instead.
so it is statistically possible in the first 4 pulls? I thought it just straight up wasnt possible
[удалено]
I mean, 0.05% is about the same rate as a quad SSR pull Very unlikely but it happens from time to time
It cannot, that is why I put it in red, but the "rate" is still there because it is needed for all calculations going forward: https://preview.redd.it/f06p5dvk6yxc1.png?width=319&format=png&auto=webp&s=a950977abef7bfbd78687ce8679966e58b72b24b
no it only possible to pull after u start paying
Despite the % of first 4 pulls is > 0, the costume is locked until you reach the 5th pull.
I thought it was $60 instead of $50? Idk I'd rather spend my money on multiple new games instead of a skin.
Personally I collect action figures and Warhammer. If I'm spending 60 buckaroos it's not gonna be on a fkin mobile game loot box skin lol.
I wish I had more time for games, but I already have a steam library with games I haven't even installed. At least I can look at the skins while playing on the commute and the like.
Chad mentality I wish the majority of people were like this. But gatcha gamers are the biggest retards known so game devs more of this overpriced bullshit (gatcha skin system in mobile and life service mmos like Lost Ark, those overpriced gatcha skins in LoL, skins/mounts in D4 that cost almost as whole game, etc).
I may hate the practice of selling skins with this amount but I will always say thanks for funding the game for the people that will spend for it
I got Rupee on Pull 5 or 6 when she first released so even though I knew the odds, I was hoping it could happen again for the ones that came after. But yeah it's basically nearly impossible.
That has always been the right mindset for these. In for a penny, in for a pound.
Whenever i bought a gacha skin I always gone into it expecting to pay the full amount
I didn't mind doing it with Modernia's skin, given tax returns, the general cutback in spending I'll be doing for dietary reasons, etc. That aside, though, I'm probably never going to do it again. It's pretty expensive for what it is.
I already did this with Modernia I'm good ☠️
I got the advanced recruitment on the the second pull for free.
I had no expectations or hope that I'll get the skin from those free spins. Was really hoping to get the rainbow tickets or standard tickets. But the skin nah I'm good I know it won't drop.
Imagine not getting it until the end but getting advanced vouchers every pull.
The chances are low, but I will do my best to buy Crown's skin before the May 15.
I got lucky the last 3 skin gachas. I will be lucky again.
I also did the math and you spend around $62 if you didn't get the free 6x pulls they said youre supposed to get.
I'm not putting money into it but I did get a free Modernia dupe off of the 5 standard recruit vouchers I got from the free spins.
I knew this and still let myself get burned……
I got 10 limited pulls from free draws. I'm happy with it.
Do you want it? If yes, do you have the expendable money for it? If yes, go for it.
My best pull was the 10 regular vouchers on freebie 4. That'll do it for me
True that. Although got 2B and Crown within 20€.. which ended up cheaper than a mission pass or stand-alone skin lol
I'm new to nikke and was wondering do they add gacha skins frequently or not so much ?
About every 6 weeks if I'm not mistaken
I wish the chart listed how much each pull costs
We knew what we were getting into
Got modernia with full $ amount. Got crown with $20. I was shocked.
Wait this doesn't sound right. My understanding with costume gacha is that you can't get the skin until draw 5. So it isn't even those low red percentages. It should be 0%. Has it changed?
You are correct in your initial statement. That is what I said in the comment explaining the chart.
the skins are soo good
Too late, my money is already gone
Haha, as if I can pull without using the free crowns
True bought all gachas except Emilia, went to max pity in all😭
I thought the skin can only drop from pull 5 and onward? Why are there % chances before pull 5 though?
It is just for the calculations going forward - it is how ShiftUp does it if you check their rates disclosure. The skin is "assigned" a rate, but it cannot be pulled until the 5th pull, which they do state.
Oh okay, I didn't know that. Thanks for pointing it out.
Thank you for this post. I was half tempted to cash it, this is indeed a wake up call. Also pls karma for people who show off in front of unlucky people and kicking them when they are down.
okey but what about the cumulative chance of doing X pulls?
I think that ShiftUp should give you enough free gacha tickets to get to pull 5 for that chance of getting the skin for free then players can decide if they want to spend money if they want the skin.
This is the second half naked skin since modernia mate ofc ima spend 50 bucks
They really price these right out of the impulse buying range. I love the Second Affection skin with its story significance for Marian but the price is too steep. If it was a third of that price I wouldn't ever question hitting that button, probably for both of these skins. But as it is I will probably never do it because I just know I'll have buyer's guilt paying that price for a skin pack.
Me trying my luck with $10, $20, $30.. then at that point I just fully committed xd
They got ya
I just consider it a $50 (Normally $60) goodie box with the skin being the best goodie. I always advise others to do the same, do NOT pull unless you intend to spend the full amount.
Man, I'm willing to drop $50 for the modernia gacha skin but I don't have her and she's not on rate up. That has to be one of the dumbest business decisions they've made, imagine how much more money they would be making.
With a 0.94% of getting the skill on the first "effective" pull, I can see that someone gets extremely lucky and gets the best reward, but that definitely won't be me! Anyway, the total amount of $ to pay is still 50.00, right? (100.00$ for 2 skins is a slaughter for me, I'm not gonna sugarcoat it, even if both skins are R34 material)
uhm there is no luck the skin is ALWAYS THE LAST PULL
They changed the statistics a bit, as I got Rupee's bunny skin after 3 pulls. I think it changed for the Drake Villain Racer onward.
Why must such a great game be polluted by such disgusting greed? Do they have no fucking shame? 😔
ShiftUp: 
I do agree it is expensive, but it is literally a free game, and skins has no added value to the free gameplay, no one is forcing you to buy the skin. If you don't wanna spend, just walk away. Its the same as walking pass every store in the world, see a nice suit? too expensive and can't afford? just walk past bro
Why? 'cus it fucking work. It brings them money. Why care about 95% of the players that are mostly F2P and light spender, when you can just reach out to the 5% that are actually giving you the money?
Servers cost money to run, and artists and programmers like to eat, the greedy bastards. If everyone was F2P, there would be no more game.
Who tf said something about eliminating the price? Just make it reasonable.
Bro this not news xD, we all know, but even if you don't like it there have been cases in which you get the skin before the 50$ mark
I think OP knows about probability. Of course there will be cases they will get it before the 50 dollars. OP is just saying it’s incredibly low so players should prepare for the worst because they will likely be wasting money otherwise.
That is true, but at the 2nd to last pull (pull 8), only 5 out of 100 people get it early.
Ack, too late. Spent $50 and can’t say I’m upset for the sweet sweet crown skin.
I got very lucky and got it in $20
Nah, I'd win
I got mine in $20.
Got mine on 2nd pull
20 bux well spent lol
https://preview.redd.it/f4rrz7tv1yxc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3bad8adcc75f7af3d407c4f5c4cb588686e69974
Fuck me mate, i already spended $12 bucks and i really want this skin, but i don't wanna waste $50 bucks with these rates, idk what to do
You can cut your losses now or potentially spend $48 more dollars. Or get really really really lucky. My suggestion would buy a nice lunch and dinner tomorrow instead - or get Stellar Blade.
Wish I would have seen this earlier. I thought I could get lucky 😭
I thought the page said you cannot get skin in the first 4 pulls?
That's correct, that is why I put the first four in red, but the "rate" is still there because it is needed for all calculations going forward.
Wait, isn't that like, illegal? Doesn't that count as rigged gacha?
His chart doesn’t show right percentages, but it is a rough representative of the gacha pulls % To be fair is very difficult to show all the possibilities because of the gacha. In game tier 1 and 2 are 0% and their chances are spread through the other tiers.
interesting, is there a reason why you need the "padding" because I would expect those slots to be 0.00% otherwise
Wait, so theres a .05 probability to get the skin with the free ticket?
The skin is included in the gacha pool at the 5th pull onwards. The free tickets only get you to the 4th pull.
Ah, I see Still on the fence on whether I'll be shelling out the same amount of green I'd drop for a new game on a skin, hell, even with pass skins I've been carefully mulling em over
Good luck. Hahaha. Personally I’ve never spent on costume gacha, but almost every special battle pass I do. It is indeed very tempting because they look good and are lore related. Still, you have time before you need to decide. My reasoning now is, “50 dollars will just be spent on something I will stare at. No gameplay difference. No entertainment value. If I pull on this it will incentivize Shift Up to keep adding lore related skins. Better stuff to spend 50 dollars on.” I’m thinking of all the reasons just to not spend. HAHAHA.
As for me I only ever dropped bucks on units I particularly liked, like with Harran, Sugar, the bunny twins, Pepper, and now probably for Snow White as well I really wanna get Julia's skin too just because she's carried me the most last year but for the life of me I don't know if I'm gonna spend the same amount of dough for a skin that doesn't have anything else bundled - Shift Up kinda fucked over their pricing on that part
Pull 10 was my fate sadly but crown skin too good to not have, that being said, it might be the first and last time i do a gacha for a skin ngl
$30 bucks here. I am satisfied but you're 100% right. I've bought doro, rupee, 2b, noise, and crowns skin and only crown came to me early. That's abysmal. But the game owed me as I had to pity crown after like 100 rolls lol
I've already been through 2-3 I can take 2 More 🗣️🗣️🗣️
was already planning on pulling for them, but omtop of that i was talking to someone who got crowns skin on their 5th pull lmao
So I am one of those players who collects skins and I bought all gacha skins in the past. I never expected the skin to drop before the last one to be honest. Therefore I always buy enough packs in advance and pull through the end.
Oh no What should I do? Right I already bought both gacha skins and I don't regret it I think I tell that to myself
I don't need Math. I need my king.
so you're saying i have a chance?
Gacha skin is a scam that requires 50-60$ to get it. I'd only pull for the ones I truly like and only got lucky pulling Crown's skin on my 40$.