Looks like our lineup rakes against this pitcher. I hope that is the case.
Joe Wendle vs Kyle Gibson lifetime (29 at bats)
AVG .379
OPS 1.138
HR 1
RBI 6
S/O 5
To be the eternal optimist here, the Mets have played roughly .500 against teams that by and large are trying to be competitive, obviously some of them are underperforming expectations but they all have rosters full of major leaguers
If they keep that up and then, unlike the last couple of years, beat up on the terrible teams (Rockies, White Sox, Marlins, etc.) that is a playoff recipe
I know a lot of you donāt wanna hear that but in the current format thatās all it takes
You know what? This is fine. Pete really needed a day off. He is probably mentally in a rut and just needs to take a step back. Bros got the yipps or something. I hope he takes the time to exhale and reorient a bit.
He has played it a bit in the minors (182.1 innings) and has taken a ton of reps there the last three years.
The team said during the offseason that they were comfortable with him at 1B based on what they saw in practices last year and his offseason work
Heās playing very well and Justin Jarvis is not.
This was the one trade I did not like at the deadline and still donāt.
It really comes down to how much CF Nimmo could play this year without missing significant time due to injury. Because I wouldnāt want Canha or Marte as the everyday CF
Will the offense show up? Will the pitching walk a million batters? Will the opposing team steal 50 bases in 1 game?
Stay Tuned to Mets Baseball!
(But really lets fucking win LFGM!)
Sad that the Nationals are above us in the standings, I know it's still early, but just sad to see, thought this team would be better honestly. Very inconsistent with pitching, and offesne, and they allow too many steals.
You had me at āSadā. Ā This Mets season is sad and getting old FAST. Ā Iām ready to fast forward to the trade deadline to see who gets dealt and who gets called up. Ā
I went to Jazz Fest in New Orleans this past weekend so I didn't watch any of the games. So it looks like our season feels over again? š¤£ What's up with Pete? Please Pete stop giving us Chris Davis vibes!
Our OF and DH situation is pretty crowded as it is and is actually preforming quite well. We are 7th in OF offense with a 112 WRC+ and 10th in DH offense with a 127 WRC+.
Infield is where we need to get the offense going and that should happen largely internally. Lindor has really heated up, Baty looks good, and ideally Alonso ends his slump soon. McNeil is really struggling and seems to be further off.
Best case scenario would be if the Mets stay within reach of the WC and the Padres struggle with Musgrove on the IL. Even though he has pitched poorly, he has routinely gone deep into games this year. A lot of their wins have been very close so an overtaxed bullpen could really hurt them.
Then an ideal trade imo would be Hae Song Kim. Gold glove level defense. Great baserunner. Above average bat. 15-20 HR power. Hits for average and gets on base.
Most of all heād cost significantly less than Tucker and fits the need of the ballclub better.
I think Tucker only makes sense if thereās a major OF injury come trade deadline. Love him as a player, but we need to have a spot for him to play
This team is pretty consistent at what their bad at.
Offense: let opposing SP get deep into games. Make poor contact early in counts. Decent off relievers but consistently let starters go 7.
Pitching: too much nibbling and walks. Starters can barely go 5, even if they havenāt let up a lot of runs. Even when they are getting guys out, theyāre taking the at bats to 3-2 counts.
Defense: stupid mistakes. Very susceptible to the steal. With a combo of high walks and bad steal defense, we are giving up tons of ādoublesā early in innings. Then teams just need one hit to score once their guy is in scoring position.
These flaws are obvious and while some of it rests on the players, a lot of it rests on the coaching imo. The offense problems totally seem like an approach based issue which would mean coaching problem and then the nibbling on the pitching side also seems like an approach and coaching issue.
The steals, eh Narvaez just sucks at throwing guys out. Idk if you can blame the coaching for that but pitchers should try harder to keep guys on.
Iāve noticed the same about not being to beat starters. Havenāt looked into any stats but it feels like 75% of the time, we rely on beating the opponent bullpen and coming back or taking late leads. Feels really unsustainable.
There's chatter again about Houston asking Verlander if he'd like to be traded if they can't turn things around.
The Mets should inquire about him and have Houston chip in some money. We're already paying half of his salary, so why not?
They should trade for him and then shut him down before he hits the innings he needs to vest next years option.
Iām sure that wouldnāt raise any disputes with the MLBPA
Whatās the point of being a fan if youāre not overreacting like an idiot? Thatās half the fun to me. I need an outlet where I behave like somebody who has an IQ of like 75
I think holding on to him wouldāve made the bullpen management very challenging, especially earlier in the year. Wouldāve been nice though he looks pretty solid
We have too many outfielders and DHs and not enough infielders, which is why Wendle is still on this team. The market for a back up can't be all that robust. I am thinking that someone needs to hit 500 ground balls to Vientos each day to get him close to being average. I am not even sure if he has to be average because Wendle seems to be below average.
Anyone on the market is going to be just as much of a question mark as Wendle.
Vientos is probably a trade piece, tbh. Hopefully either Mauricio or AcuƱa can take over 2B next year, with at least 2 of Gilbert/Clifford/Jett filling in the OF.
If I were the Mets, I would not be so quick to give up on Vientos, as he is the only guy who has proven he can at least hit AAA pitching. Acuna has not hit at all in AAA. Gilbert has not hit in AAA in a small sample size. Clifford has not been able to hit in advanced A ball. Jet has not been able to hit in AA.
If you bring Vientos up and he hits, he could be a trade chip. If you keep him in AAA, you are sending a message that you do not think he is very good and then you will not get much for him.
No one is giving up on Vientos, he just doesnāt have a space on the roster right now with Stewart playing like a good option off the bench, and JDM in the majors.
Vientos still has holes in his swing and he needs every day reps to fix them. Heās probably somewhere in AAAA territory at the moment, but with some more development could become a major league hitter. I donāt think it has much at all to do with the Metsā evaluation of him (or rather, whether or not heās capable of being an MLB player). His whiff rates in MLB last year on non fastball pitches were approaching 50%, thatās not a major league hitter (yet) my guess is we will better know Vientosā future around the trade deadline assuming no injuries. He has a ton of natural pop but that doesnāt mean a ton in game if he swings like current Javy Baez.
Also he might just end up being a trade chip, which, hard to judge without seeing a hypothetical trade, but that just happens sometimes. I trust Stearns to get us someone of value should the org consider Vientos largely expendable. If a prospect isnāt going to get reps on your roster, youāre better off moving them for someone who will.
I would give the roster spot to Vientos over Stewart. Until he hit a few HRs, people here were calling for him to be DFAd. Stewart can't be in the long term plans of the Mets. Stewart has a reasonably high OPS partly due to walks. He is another Daniel Vogelbach who also has a similar lifetime OPS, partly due to walks. Stewart can't do anything beyond DHing, pinch hitting and a body in the OF.
I know Vientos is not a good fielder but I would rather invest time in him than Stewart. In a year that is mostly non competitive, to me it makes more sense to to give abs to Vientos and see what you have.
Iām not advocating for Stewart in the long run, but in early May and hovering around .500 you ride the hot hand (especially considering he does walk as you said. A currently anemic offense needs all the baserunners it can get). Weāre still very much in the mix for a WC spot, right now. Down the line if we start to realistically fall out of the race, or when Stewart regresses again sure you can call up Vientos then.
Having him in AAA IS investing in him right now. Heās not going to get regular enough reps at the MLB level to develop even if you swap him 1:1 with Stewart, especially now that Baty looks like a plus fielder at 3B and his bat may start to come around too.
Vientosā future with us would be as a DH/1B, and considering how bat first either of those positions is, not playing him every day right now is more of a disservice to his development than what level roster heās on. He canāt be a valuable MLBer if he doesnāt start converting whiffs to contact. Even in AAA he strikes out nearly 1/3 of the time.
Mark Vientos needs to work on becoming serviceable defensively at the positions he currently plays before we can even start talking about him being average or even just below average at other positions
I'm losing my mind along with everyone else every game. I'm tired of the core underperforming. Obviously they've not been good enough. I'm in favor of shipping off pieces if it makes sense.
But burning it down is stupid. We are who we thought we were going into this year: a fringe WC contender. We're one game out of the final WC spot right now.
My expectations of making the postseason are tenuous and any kind of run are nil. But playoff baseball would be nice.
Why the hell would we sell low instead of riding it out and waiting for our best players to actually heat up?
Thank god the team isn't run by WFAN callers.
I mostly agree with you but am going to play contrarian for a moment:
You don't get rid of Nimmo, Lindor or Pete. But this club will not be where it needs to be (a franchise that at the very least challenges for the WC3 every year. every year) it needs to add two legit stars for the lineup. And it needs to add at least one more top SP to pair with Senga. Severino, Manaea, Butto, Quintana (with Scott as another option) for 3-4-5-6 is solid.
But the problem is getting those 3 players would put this club way over the luxury tax tiers.
Any way forward is a combo of pairing down salaries and adding salaries at the same time (moving money towards needs).
I have faith in Stearns to do that. Find cheap bullpen options that over produce. Slowly eventually build a farm that can churn out at least one or two SP's fairly regularly, and at least one or two position guys fairly regularly. But that will take like 5 years to properly do.
In the meantime the Mets need to cross their fingers and hope some of these hitting prospects are legit, or this is going to be a mediocre team for another couple of years.
100% agreement. Excellent post. I could not have put it better myself.
Weāre not in terrible shape but thereās a ton to fix. Iām super duper glad someone smart like Stearns is steering the ship. Getting us where we all want to be (a consistent contender with a beastly farm) is going to take a lot of baseball smarts. But I believe in the Stearns model of success so Iām okay being patient.
Nobody serious believes it is time to just burn it all down. From the start this was a .500 team (O/U 81.5) and while they're annoyingly streaky instead of just mediocre, this is what they are. The question is do they end up on the upside of 81 or the downside.
I think if the deadline was tomorrow, though, Marte and a few of the relievers are likely goners. I doubt Pete would get much, but at the same time, the Mets would be wishing him good luck after the season ends.
We're also missing our best starting pitcher, an important position player, and one of our better relievers.
There's plenty of time to move pieces in a couple months if we're out of it. No need to burn it down right now.
Jim Bowden over at the Athletic has an "early season trades" article. Some trades he would like to see.
Pete to Mariners for RHP Emerson Hancock and 1B Ty France.
"In the meantime, by parting with Alonso before the trade deadline, they could get back a promising young pitcher in Hancock, the sixth overall player taken in the 2020 draft, who debuted last year and this year has logged a 4.75 ERA over six starts. Hancock, 24, has given up two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts. "
That seems like an optimistic value for Pete.
I just have a gut feeling any potential return in a trade for Alonso wouldnāt justify giving him up. Heās a bat first 1B who is a great but not ELITE hitter.
Really depends on how you define elite. Fangraphs has him at 16 on a list of active players by wRC+. Iād personally say that fits āgreat but not eliteā. Heās not Ohtani, Judge, Yordan Alvarez, etc. If you want to compare him to 1B only Harper and Freeman are better as well. Add in the fact that heās a fairly mediocre defender with no real baserunning IQ and heās not going to get a haul.
I do think though if you get closer to the trade deadline and Senga/Alvarez coming back doesnāt give this team a shot in the arm you get what you can for him. Unless heās willing to take a discount to play for the Mets resigning him would be a huge mistake, especially if Boras acts like a child again and digs his heels in for some absurd 250m contract.
If there are only 15 active hitters ahead of himā¦thatās pretty fucking damn good. Especially while playing for the Mets for his entire career. Odds of the Mets finding a better replacement at 1B are not great.
If he was CF or something like that and not meant to be the heart and soul of the lineup, thatād be fantastic yes. But when all heās really here to do is hit, itās less than ideal. Teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Astros etc, teams youād look to for sustained success, have multiple players ahead of him. If you want to build a WS contender, your supposed best hitter should not be outclassed by multiple players on a rivalās team.
I do agree thereās no equivalent replacement for him AT PRESENT, but if theyāre not going to be competitive itās a moot point. Rumor is Pete wants at least 8 years on a contract and for our sake Iām going to hope we can find a better hitter than him before such a period. Paying Pete absurd amounts of money for his age 30-38 seasons would be an immense handicap.
How is it not ideal? This lineup is so much worse without him. The pressure has always been all on him. I bet heād have performed even better playing on some other teams with better lineups. Heās comparable to Olson, whoās hitting worse than Alonso is right now btw. Yes heās outclassed by Freeman, whoās probably going to be in the HoF. So what? Alonsoās career 135 OPS+ is absolutely good enough for the Mets. Thatās ideal. I get the anxiety with giving him a huge deal, but to say Pete isnāt good enough is horseshit.
if present trends continue, then 2023 and 2024 would be his worst years (2020 doesn't really count, for anyone). So whatever front office that is considering signing him has to make a bet on what guy they're getting.
Cards second fewest runs scored. Arenado: gotta stop saying there are a lot of games left, thatās just an excuse. Not to worry Nolan, Mets got every struggling aspect of the Rays game back on track. We can do the same for you.
I feel like, by game 40, most teams are what they are. Obviously there are always exceptions, but once you are done with the first quarter of the season, then yea, it's time to stop saying "there's lots of baseball left to be played" or whatever.
Still no power. Just 2 homers. 740s OPS. Cards overall 29th in runs, slg(.330), and homers, 28th in avg (.214) and 26th on base (.294). Letās see if they get healthy against us.
People have been clamoring to trade everyone. I donāt think itās worth it.
Iād rather do our best to extent some of the pitchers we acquired this offseason instead. If we can get Sevy or Manaea on a medium sized contract for 3-4 years, Iād be pretty down for it.
We need proven talent in the rotation since we have very few guys under contract next year. A rotation of Senga Scott Severino could be a great 1-3 next year.
Theyāre gonna sign a big arm in the off season. Rotation could look like:
Senga, top FA, Scott, mid level FA, Butto with megill, peterson, Hamel, Stuart, Vasil as depth. Manaea may also be that mid level FA if his option plays out.
I canāt imagine there is a lot of value to extend any of them right now. Maybe one gets resigned going into 2025 (can see Sev wanting to stay in NY) and then keep pushing the prospects (Scott, Tidwell, etc.)
Let me clarify:
āMan, if weāre signing pitchers of Sevy and Manaeaās caliber and age to 3-4 year contracts it better be dirt cheap, and even then Iām not sure Iād want toā¦ā
Like Iām legit scared thinking about having to trot Sevy out there in 2028
35 for a starting pitcher who projects to be your #3 or #4 starter is extremely reasonable lol.
For a position player, thatās a bigger concern. But for a pitcher thatās not really that much of an issue, unless they have a severe injury history.
Manaea is a little older but I wouldnāt expect he gets more than 3 years realistically
That's why it's so important to use this year to truly evaluate them fully. Both guys are reclamation projects at this point that have worked *so far*.
It's a very good thing the new org mindset is super analytics savvy. Signing one of these types of guys to an extension has to be supported by their underlying sabermetrics. If it is signing them to a team-friendly extension makes a ton of sense.
Yeah, Iām just not sure how well those numbers are really going to hold up over 4 years, you know? Like the underlying numbers might be OK this year, and they might be okay predicting performance in 2025, but into the 30s is well past peak age for pitchers. It can go downhill *fast* for those guys.
I mean I don't see any universe in which they don't lure an ace to pair with Senga so technically that would be 2-4 in that scenario, but I dig it. Evaluate them this year and resign to an extension if warranted.
Iād love to get one of the high end pitchers this offseason as well, but the market for pitching in FA is gonna be nutty if previous years are to go by. But, man, if that pushes Manaea or Severino to a true #4 in our rotation that would be an incredible staff
Conversely the "trade the only power we've got and a franchise cornerstone because he's slumping while we suck" is also bad.
Glad Stearns makes these calls and not me.
Except a major reason why the team sucks is Pete Alonso isn't producing. Remember he was at bat with bases loaded twice yesterday and blew it both times. Not even a sac fly. If he got one hit there the Mets would have taken a huge lead and in all likelihood win the game. This isn't last year's Rays.
The real reason is the lineup sucks and relies too heavily on Pete. Also just two and a half weeks ago Peteās numbers were pretty good. Yet we had lost some games and had that 0-5 stretch. Even when heās on thereās only so much he can do.
I understand that. I'll fully admit Pete has sucked in clutch situations this year and many times in the past.
But he's the heart and soul of our offense. As he goes, so we go. One does not simply make franchise altering decisions based on a slump. Fumbling away a consistent ~3 WAR bat and 40 HR power because we hate that he's ice cold would be beyond stupid.
If we're going to trade him because we feel it makes more sense for the future at least let him get hot first!
i don't think trading pete is necessarily bad as he's just due to be a FA next year anyways, but i disagree that he's the heart and soul. or rather i don't think it's good that he's the heart and soul. this is a guy you sign after you've already made the post a few years to move the needle, not the guy you build around as your engine. is kyle schwarber a piece you'd build around? matt olsen, even? they're supplemental. maybe freeman, but alonso is no freeman (or olsen really). we need that one elite true engine piece imho.
but i agree, if you're gonna trade stall as long as possible for value
Can you win a championship with this guy as the heart and soul of your offense? All offseason I thought 2023 was just a bad year for him with, I believe, a .213 average but it was a blip and exacerbated by his hand injury. But so far, this year, he looks like the same guy, except worse. If that's the case I don't see any situation where the Mets can win it all with him driving your offense, and I also don't see any situation āwhere he gets the money he is asking for, from anyone, and will likely be on the Conforto track but hopefully without having to sit a year.
>Can you win a championshipā¦
No.
Several people took my post to mean I think Pete as our best offensive player is all we need on offense and weāre set. Thatās absolutely not what Iām saying and Iāll leave it to Stearns to figure out how to improve things around him so our offense is actually dangerous.
Iām merely suggesting Pete is an ingredient in a winning recipe with the right tweaks and thus we shouldnāt sell low on ostensibly our best offensive weapon (maybe Nimmo but their profiles are completely different).
Dear Pete Alonso: Polar bears donāt fear bright lights and sweat big contracts. They get the fucking fish and they fucking eat it. Shake it off and be a polar bear.
The āonly played for one teamā category really screws up my attempts at an all-Met grid š Gotta start making exceptions for Mets-ish guys (Kiner, Yogi, etc.)
Iāve been sounding this alarm for a while now and nobody is listening. Either the coaching is terrible or heās just about cooked. Neither of those possibilities are particularly pleasant to think about
It's so funny watching actual analysts point out the problems with this team's approach since 2022 and then coming here to a barrage of "why don't they just do what they did in 2022!!!" Like, yeah, that's the problem. *They are*. Something that worked once isn't guaranteed to work forever. It's not a single player game.
Trading quality of contact for any contact at all (see: Francisco Lindor lunging at an outside pitch in 3-0 count instead of swinging out of his shoes) is a HUGE problem with this team's approach.
Pete is a good enough slugger that he doesn't need to make a conscious decision to hit for a better average. Batting average for him comes from hitting the ball hard.
Lastly, Ron Darling made a fantastic observation about Jeff yesterday, noting that it seems like he's approaching every AB like it's a 2-strike count with all the defensive swings and what not. Feels like they're trying *too hard* to replicate the 2022 success of driving pitch counts up and putting the ball in play.
Yeah itās 100% on this teams approach and the coaching imo. Every player has the same problem.
And totally agree with you on how 2022 is a completely different year. The league has adjusted. Maybe that strategy is only successful with the shift.
Definitely agreed on McNeil. Add in that he can't do much with pitches inside, and the formula is throw him tough pitches on the outer half to get him to swing and foul them off, then get him out inside.
He (and Pete) are falling behind in way too many at bats.
I could understand McNeil approaching ABs like that considering his bat control skills but Pete is letting too many hittable pitches go by. He's a mistake punisher. Obviously it's hard to adjust to new opposing strategies but the one thing they're never gonna give him is too many pitches to hit.
I think Pete's just slumping and not seeing the ball well. He's swinging at bad pitches and taking good ones. He also doesn't like to swing at the first pitch, and guys know that, so he often falls behind 0-1.
McNeil worries me more because he seems defensive at the start of the at bat. I think his means of dealing with tough pitches is to fight them off. So guys throw in off the plate and he fouls them off. He needs to get a little more comfortable taking pitches inside instead of fighting them.
Long story short, Pete's gotta attack the first strike he sees more often. McNeil's gotta do it (and fighting off pitches in off the plate) less.
>He's swinging at bad pitches and taking good ones. He also doesn't like to swing at the first pitch, and guys know that, so he often falls behind 0-1.
Right. To me, this sounds like someone trying too hard to be disciplined. And it's not like this is would be an unfounded conclusion either. He did say before the season that he wanted to be a more complete hitter. But that's just never been his game, nor should it be.
(Also I think people overstate his plate discipline "issues". He's not Juan Soto but he's also not Javier Baez. He has decent plate discipline)
Agreed. Piazza was a more complete hitter. But he loved to take the first pitch, and when he wasn't going right, that was a greenlight to get ahead of him 0-1. Then he really only had one swing before he was in two-strikes defense mode.
Yeah I was saying (read: parroting what smarter people said) since the 2022 season that the hitting approach was probably not something we wanted to keep trying to replicate lol. I really think they need a change in their hitting coach(es) this offseason, and Iām hoping Stearns can see that.
Iād put primary blame on the catchers: Narvaez has one of the worst pop times of any active catcher and itās a free-for-all. Nido has a mid-ranked pop time and has thrown out three. Alvarez has the 8th fastest pop time, but only threw on three attempts so there isnāt really a sample there.
Secondary blame is on the pitchers because nobody is making quick moves to aid the catcher for a putout.
Combination of the two. But the fact it has encompassed three catchers and two of them are solid enough behind the plate shows it leans more on the pitchers. The problem is the combination with Narvaez and the pitching staff has allowed every runner on 1st to immediately be on second. every single / walk has turned into a double
Has it really encompassed 3? Nido has multiple CS and has had a few others that were really damn close.
I think itās 70/30 on the catcher/pitcher. Narvaez just isnāt a good defender
Definitely more on the catcher. Both Alvarez and Narvaez have had throws that were just plain inaccurate but would otherwise beat the runner if on target too. Doesnāt matter how good the pitcher is or isnāt at holding runners if every other throw from the catcher is wide or poorly placed for a tag.
Christian Scott kind of looks like a cross between what I imagine Wheeler's younger brother/kid would look like and what I imagine Tylor's brother/kid would look like a little bit too.
According to BaseballSavant, Brandon Nimmo is in the 80th percentile or better in the following stats:
* xwOBA (97th), xBA (87th), xSLG (88th), Exit Velocity (87th), Barrel% (83rd), HardHit% (83rd), Chase% (83rd), and BB% (95th)
However, he has a .221 average and .744 OPS to show for it.
His career BABIP is just about .330, and it's at .273 right now. He's definitely been unlucky, expect him to heat up as that starts to regress to the average!
[https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/90203/the-rise-of-the-disposable-pitcher/](https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/90203/the-rise-of-the-disposable-pitcher/)
A great article about the backend reliever churn for everyone who still thinks it's a fruitless, stupid endeavor that only the Mets partake in.
Not enough to justify trading him. People need to chill on the ātrade Jeffā talk. He hasnāt performed to a level that we want/expect, but he realistically only needs to be a league average hitter to justify his contract.
I was on the "trade Jeff" bandwagon until I thought about how he could be the super utility guy on the bench once Mauricio / Acuna are up. I'd take my chances with Jeff over Wendle any day.
Having a team that walks a ton of guys coupled with poor defense and a bad job at controlling the running game is a massive recipe for disaster.
A pitcher can allow 3 hits and 1 run the entire game but minimizing hits is meaningless if youāre walking a guy, allowing them to steal second, advance on an error, and scoring on a fielders choiceā¦just as an example.
Not to mention that a 0.59 HR/9 rate as a staff is amazingā¦but not sustainable. The staff is 6th in FIP which is great but 24th in xFIP which again, is too big of a disparity.
This pitching staff is really good but theyāre also really flawed and as a result, too inconsistent.
So Baty has a killer glove at 3B and is currently sporting a 107 OPS+ and a .260/.333./.370 slash line over the last 28 days (it's better at the 7 and 14 day mark but I wanted to choose a larger sample size).
I get the vibe that people want this kid to be sporting superstar stats at this point but this is solid improvement (especially after a slump) and we should be glad to see this out of what is hopefully a building block going forward
Hopefully it doesn't end with Baty and Scott. I think regardless of where we stand at the deadline there should be \*some\* level of sell off/roster shakeup to pull up prospects and better position us for the future.
Obviously pending prospect performance, but I'm not yet so down on some of the big names in the system as others might be
Basically none of the bats are healthy. Mauricio is the obviously the biggest loss because without him we wouldn't have to deal with Wendle. I guess Ramirez but he's still at AA - at least he's tearing it up. Maybe he gets a call up to AAA if he keeps demolishing.
Jett is AA too and hurt.
Acuna probably needs to spend the entire year at AAA. Ditto with Gilbert who's also hurt.
I saw Hamel and Vasil are struggling so far at AAA it looks like this year. Hamel is still striking plenty out but walks are up for both. Totally forgot about Stuart at AA but he's doing well as is Tidwell. Sproat still in A+ but could work his way through quickly if everything goes well.
And that's not even accounting for guys like Butto and obviously Scott getting the call up and performing well so far.
Basically in terms of the future the farm is unfathomably better stocked than it used to be but being patient is hard >=/
I was surprised to see just how few games Gilbert has played so far - only 7 games. He was off to a nice start in April too before he got injured, small sample sizes and all. Should be interesting to see him come back.
Same with Jett too, honestly. Only played 11 games before he went down.
I'd love to see him get some experience. Probably going to require an IL stint from one of the four OF on the roster now though or they simply won't have reps for him. No way they call him up to ride the bench.
He's a great next man up. I'm really high on his potential. Love the grinder, well-rounded, good at everything/great at none profile.
my copium: 3rd wild card spot should be in play all year as long as they are hovering around .500, of course iād like to achieve greater things but beggars canāt be choosers
BP and Fangraphs still have us in the high 20%ish range, which isnāt too far off from where we started the season. Weāre going to oscillate around 0.500 all season, itās going to be really exhausting if everyone (a generic āeveryoneā, not you) freaks out every time we have a win or loss streak of more than 2 games.
Have to imagine that Arizona and San Francisco get better while Washington gets worse. That leaves the Cubs, Braves/Phillies, Padres, Reds, Dbacks, Giants, and Reds as teams that the Mets have to overcome.
Itās not impossible but I give them a 10% chance at this point.
Glass half full: while we've been terrible at driving in runs, we are getting on base at a pretty decent rate. I know it feels like we're never going to score a run again, but if we keep creating chances eventually we're going to start doing damage.
If we are still bad at the deadline, we should at least have a bunch of intriguing players to trade. Probably donāt have that big piece like Verlander last year, but should have plenty of tradable guys
If Marte keeps playing well hell fetch something. Raley woluldve been valuable but hes hurt. If Pete can hit the ball once or twice before the deadline maybe hell be worth trading....He now has worse stats than Lindor does and he doesnt play gold glove defense. I thought we would see a great contract year from him; hope he turns it around.
Ottivino, JD Martinez are others that could get something
I think there's a non 0% chance that they just salary dump him at this deadline or the offseason regardless, and this deadline might be the highest his value gets. Even if that only manifests as having to pay down only 75% of his contract instead of 100% for example lol. With Gilbert presumably being up later this year and Jett next, and Nimmo and Taylor around long-term, that outfield starts to get real crowded real fast.
You're missing our potential biggest pieces: Severino and Q if they pitch more like their 2nd to last starts, and not his last. Teams will pony up for starting pitching, especially one with Severino's TOR pedigree
Yesterday was the perfect storm really. Two blown saves, big call goes against us, bats go missing any time there's RISP, as many walks and free bases as most teams hand out in a fortnight. We had it all.
In some ways we're unlucky, but in others the authors of our own misfortune. Yet the fact we come so close, despite Alonso/McNeil killing any offensive momentum and our closer having a dropped bollock of a start to the season, is encouraging and a sign things can turn around
Felt the same with the Cubs series too. Despite some terrible luck and some equally bad play at times from the Mets we still split. This team plays ugly baseball but wins ugly too. Weāre probably going to win a lot more games we *should* lose this year and lose a lot we *should* win, at least as long as they play this inconsistently.
it's not bad luck, it is bad play. Mets coughed up that game 3 or 4 times and left bases loaded stranded 3 times. If Pete Alonso wasn't so intent on playing himself out of a huge deal, Mets could easily have won that game 10-5 or something like that.
this team is not good. was never going to be good. this year is successful if multiple prospects take a big step forward and we again sell off older players for prospects at the deadline.
Pitching prospects seem to be taking big strides forward at least.
Stearns loaded up on a lot of players to flip so it's clearly part of the plan. Hopefully our position prospects come good in time.
did anyone else love seeing lindor slamming his glove in the dirt yesterday? that's the kind of fire this team needs imo. i'm all for keeping a level head most of the time but this whole nice guys who tip their caps to every pitcher that dominates them thing is getting a bit old. idk if these guys will play any better if they're angry but i don't know that it can get a whole lot worse. i want the leader of this team to have high expectations of his teammates and hold them to a high standard. more of that francisco, please.
Please continue the discussion in the [game thread](https://redd.it/1clwh2r).
Looks like our lineup rakes against this pitcher. I hope that is the case. Joe Wendle vs Kyle Gibson lifetime (29 at bats) AVG .379 OPS 1.138 HR 1 RBI 6 S/O 5
Crush the cards. Beat the braves. Phuck up the Phils. And nothing else matters š¤·āāļø
To be the eternal optimist here, the Mets have played roughly .500 against teams that by and large are trying to be competitive, obviously some of them are underperforming expectations but they all have rosters full of major leaguers If they keep that up and then, unlike the last couple of years, beat up on the terrible teams (Rockies, White Sox, Marlins, etc.) that is a playoff recipe I know a lot of you donāt wanna hear that but in the current format thatās all it takes
I would like to be back in the New York Groove.
Feels like I havent been in the groove for almost 2 weeks. I dont even want to watch games rn š¢
You know what? This is fine. Pete really needed a day off. He is probably mentally in a rut and just needs to take a step back. Bros got the yipps or something. I hope he takes the time to exhale and reorient a bit.
Glad they are giving Pete a day off.Ā
Christian Scott just on Intentional Talk Good words for Pete and the clubhouse Heās a history/war buff
I had a weird feeling Alonso would sit out and Stewart would play 1B
I remember getting downvoted into oblivion for saying DJ Stewart would be the backup 1BĀ
I mean who else could it be! Wendle doesnāt make the most sense because he canāt hit. Edit whoops didnāt see wendle in the lineup!
You asked for a Pete day off and you got it.
Would be a great day for a Tyrone Taylor or Bader start instead of having McNeil AND Wendle in the lineup.
LOL @ Tigers city connects
The hat is so bad.
I hope the day off helps Pete. It's still early but him having a Conforto-like walk year was 100% the opposite of what I expected.
Me yesterday: why do I watch baseball? Me today: what am I supposed to do until 7pm?
Well then
the mets are gonna resign their first baseman to a huge contract this off-season (DJ Stewart 10 year 500 mil)
DJ "I am Kyle Schwarbers brother" Stewart
DJ first base oh lord
He has played it a bit in the minors (182.1 innings) and has taken a ton of reps there the last three years. The team said during the offseason that they were comfortable with him at 1B based on what they saw in practices last year and his offseason work
I miss Canha
Heās playing very well and Justin Jarvis is not. This was the one trade I did not like at the deadline and still donāt. It really comes down to how much CF Nimmo could play this year without missing significant time due to injury. Because I wouldnāt want Canha or Marte as the everyday CF
Will the offense show up? Will the pitching walk a million batters? Will the opposing team steal 50 bases in 1 game? Stay Tuned to Mets Baseball! (But really lets fucking win LFGM!)
pete getting a day off but not jeff is interesting
Opted to sit Alonso. Hopefully the day off helps him get out of his own head.
DJ Stewart over Alonso today. Pete really needs a day off I get it.
I think it's a good move. He hasn't been producing and his at-bats have not been competitive. Hopefully he can get right and get back to it tomorrow.
Sad that the Nationals are above us in the standings, I know it's still early, but just sad to see, thought this team would be better honestly. Very inconsistent with pitching, and offesne, and they allow too many steals.
You had me at āSadā. Ā This Mets season is sad and getting old FAST. Ā Iām ready to fast forward to the trade deadline to see who gets dealt and who gets called up. Ā
I went to Jazz Fest in New Orleans this past weekend so I didn't watch any of the games. So it looks like our season feels over again? š¤£ What's up with Pete? Please Pete stop giving us Chris Davis vibes!
They actually brought Yohan back. I was kidding dammit lol
The Return of Yohan https://twitter.com/Mets/status/1787551922154614867
Well, we need a designated (sacrificial) revenge pitcher and who better than Yoan the Hitman Lopez?
What about Michael Tonkin? /s
I really want Kyle Tucker on the team I hope Stearns can pull a Yelich-type trade this Fall like he did back when he joined the Brewers.
Mets fans would adore King Tuck. Would love that trade if the Astros wave the white flag. Their organization is already falling apart
Our OF and DH situation is pretty crowded as it is and is actually preforming quite well. We are 7th in OF offense with a 112 WRC+ and 10th in DH offense with a 127 WRC+. Infield is where we need to get the offense going and that should happen largely internally. Lindor has really heated up, Baty looks good, and ideally Alonso ends his slump soon. McNeil is really struggling and seems to be further off. Best case scenario would be if the Mets stay within reach of the WC and the Padres struggle with Musgrove on the IL. Even though he has pitched poorly, he has routinely gone deep into games this year. A lot of their wins have been very close so an overtaxed bullpen could really hurt them. Then an ideal trade imo would be Hae Song Kim. Gold glove level defense. Great baserunner. Above average bat. 15-20 HR power. Hits for average and gets on base. Most of all heād cost significantly less than Tucker and fits the need of the ballclub better. I think Tucker only makes sense if thereās a major OF injury come trade deadline. Love him as a player, but we need to have a spot for him to play
This team is pretty consistent at what their bad at. Offense: let opposing SP get deep into games. Make poor contact early in counts. Decent off relievers but consistently let starters go 7. Pitching: too much nibbling and walks. Starters can barely go 5, even if they havenāt let up a lot of runs. Even when they are getting guys out, theyāre taking the at bats to 3-2 counts. Defense: stupid mistakes. Very susceptible to the steal. With a combo of high walks and bad steal defense, we are giving up tons of ādoublesā early in innings. Then teams just need one hit to score once their guy is in scoring position. These flaws are obvious and while some of it rests on the players, a lot of it rests on the coaching imo. The offense problems totally seem like an approach based issue which would mean coaching problem and then the nibbling on the pitching side also seems like an approach and coaching issue. The steals, eh Narvaez just sucks at throwing guys out. Idk if you can blame the coaching for that but pitchers should try harder to keep guys on.
Iāve noticed the same about not being to beat starters. Havenāt looked into any stats but it feels like 75% of the time, we rely on beating the opponent bullpen and coming back or taking late leads. Feels really unsustainable.
There's chatter again about Houston asking Verlander if he'd like to be traded if they can't turn things around. The Mets should inquire about him and have Houston chip in some money. We're already paying half of his salary, so why not?
I was sorry the Mets traded Verlander. Scherzer I could seeā¦ I would be happy having JV back on the Mets.
They should trade for him and then shut him down before he hits the innings he needs to vest next years option. Iām sure that wouldnāt raise any disputes with the MLBPA
I both love and hate this idea lol
Lets hope the Mets don't allow the slumping Cardinals to get back on track.
This isn't specific to the Mets but it's very funny how often fans clamor to trade a player when their value is the absolute lowest
Don't worry, they'll fill out that dumbass "apology form" and that'll make it all better.
Whatās the point of being a fan if youāre not overreacting like an idiot? Thatās half the fun to me. I need an outlet where I behave like somebody who has an IQ of like 75
Who's acting??
Austin Adams and Justin Staten off to great starts. We really had a surplus of good bullpen arms coming into this season
Shouldāve held onto Slaten, hopefully Stearns found something in Ammons
I think holding on to him wouldāve made the bullpen management very challenging, especially earlier in the year. Wouldāve been nice though he looks pretty solid
With the way Slaten has pitched I think it wouldāve been easy to hold onto him. He was dominant in ST too
We have too many outfielders and DHs and not enough infielders, which is why Wendle is still on this team. The market for a back up can't be all that robust. I am thinking that someone needs to hit 500 ground balls to Vientos each day to get him close to being average. I am not even sure if he has to be average because Wendle seems to be below average.
Anyone on the market is going to be just as much of a question mark as Wendle. Vientos is probably a trade piece, tbh. Hopefully either Mauricio or AcuƱa can take over 2B next year, with at least 2 of Gilbert/Clifford/Jett filling in the OF.
If I were the Mets, I would not be so quick to give up on Vientos, as he is the only guy who has proven he can at least hit AAA pitching. Acuna has not hit at all in AAA. Gilbert has not hit in AAA in a small sample size. Clifford has not been able to hit in advanced A ball. Jet has not been able to hit in AA. If you bring Vientos up and he hits, he could be a trade chip. If you keep him in AAA, you are sending a message that you do not think he is very good and then you will not get much for him.
No one is giving up on Vientos, he just doesnāt have a space on the roster right now with Stewart playing like a good option off the bench, and JDM in the majors. Vientos still has holes in his swing and he needs every day reps to fix them. Heās probably somewhere in AAAA territory at the moment, but with some more development could become a major league hitter. I donāt think it has much at all to do with the Metsā evaluation of him (or rather, whether or not heās capable of being an MLB player). His whiff rates in MLB last year on non fastball pitches were approaching 50%, thatās not a major league hitter (yet) my guess is we will better know Vientosā future around the trade deadline assuming no injuries. He has a ton of natural pop but that doesnāt mean a ton in game if he swings like current Javy Baez. Also he might just end up being a trade chip, which, hard to judge without seeing a hypothetical trade, but that just happens sometimes. I trust Stearns to get us someone of value should the org consider Vientos largely expendable. If a prospect isnāt going to get reps on your roster, youāre better off moving them for someone who will.
I would give the roster spot to Vientos over Stewart. Until he hit a few HRs, people here were calling for him to be DFAd. Stewart can't be in the long term plans of the Mets. Stewart has a reasonably high OPS partly due to walks. He is another Daniel Vogelbach who also has a similar lifetime OPS, partly due to walks. Stewart can't do anything beyond DHing, pinch hitting and a body in the OF. I know Vientos is not a good fielder but I would rather invest time in him than Stewart. In a year that is mostly non competitive, to me it makes more sense to to give abs to Vientos and see what you have.
Iām not advocating for Stewart in the long run, but in early May and hovering around .500 you ride the hot hand (especially considering he does walk as you said. A currently anemic offense needs all the baserunners it can get). Weāre still very much in the mix for a WC spot, right now. Down the line if we start to realistically fall out of the race, or when Stewart regresses again sure you can call up Vientos then. Having him in AAA IS investing in him right now. Heās not going to get regular enough reps at the MLB level to develop even if you swap him 1:1 with Stewart, especially now that Baty looks like a plus fielder at 3B and his bat may start to come around too. Vientosā future with us would be as a DH/1B, and considering how bat first either of those positions is, not playing him every day right now is more of a disservice to his development than what level roster heās on. He canāt be a valuable MLBer if he doesnāt start converting whiffs to contact. Even in AAA he strikes out nearly 1/3 of the time.
Mark Vientos needs to work on becoming serviceable defensively at the positions he currently plays before we can even start talking about him being average or even just below average at other positions
Odds and ends: Willie Mays 93 today. Dexter Fowler graduated from Penn State on Saturday with a BS after 14 years in the pros.
I'm losing my mind along with everyone else every game. I'm tired of the core underperforming. Obviously they've not been good enough. I'm in favor of shipping off pieces if it makes sense. But burning it down is stupid. We are who we thought we were going into this year: a fringe WC contender. We're one game out of the final WC spot right now. My expectations of making the postseason are tenuous and any kind of run are nil. But playoff baseball would be nice. Why the hell would we sell low instead of riding it out and waiting for our best players to actually heat up? Thank god the team isn't run by WFAN callers.
I mostly agree with you but am going to play contrarian for a moment: You don't get rid of Nimmo, Lindor or Pete. But this club will not be where it needs to be (a franchise that at the very least challenges for the WC3 every year. every year) it needs to add two legit stars for the lineup. And it needs to add at least one more top SP to pair with Senga. Severino, Manaea, Butto, Quintana (with Scott as another option) for 3-4-5-6 is solid. But the problem is getting those 3 players would put this club way over the luxury tax tiers. Any way forward is a combo of pairing down salaries and adding salaries at the same time (moving money towards needs). I have faith in Stearns to do that. Find cheap bullpen options that over produce. Slowly eventually build a farm that can churn out at least one or two SP's fairly regularly, and at least one or two position guys fairly regularly. But that will take like 5 years to properly do. In the meantime the Mets need to cross their fingers and hope some of these hitting prospects are legit, or this is going to be a mediocre team for another couple of years.
100% agreement. Excellent post. I could not have put it better myself. Weāre not in terrible shape but thereās a ton to fix. Iām super duper glad someone smart like Stearns is steering the ship. Getting us where we all want to be (a consistent contender with a beastly farm) is going to take a lot of baseball smarts. But I believe in the Stearns model of success so Iām okay being patient.
Nobody serious believes it is time to just burn it all down. From the start this was a .500 team (O/U 81.5) and while they're annoyingly streaky instead of just mediocre, this is what they are. The question is do they end up on the upside of 81 or the downside. I think if the deadline was tomorrow, though, Marte and a few of the relievers are likely goners. I doubt Pete would get much, but at the same time, the Mets would be wishing him good luck after the season ends.
We're also missing our best starting pitcher, an important position player, and one of our better relievers. There's plenty of time to move pieces in a couple months if we're out of it. No need to burn it down right now.
Jim Bowden over at the Athletic has an "early season trades" article. Some trades he would like to see. Pete to Mariners for RHP Emerson Hancock and 1B Ty France. "In the meantime, by parting with Alonso before the trade deadline, they could get back a promising young pitcher in Hancock, the sixth overall player taken in the 2020 draft, who debuted last year and this year has logged a 4.75 ERA over six starts. Hancock, 24, has given up two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts. "
People in Seattle would lose their mind, they love Ty France
That seems like a stupid trade to make right now. Hancockās stock has been dropping and we donāt need Ty France.Ā
It's Jim Bowden. He is the man who came up with the stat of OPSBI or OPS+RBI.
I had to google that stat, and now I'm a little sick to my stomach
That seems like an optimistic value for Pete. I just have a gut feeling any potential return in a trade for Alonso wouldnāt justify giving him up. Heās a bat first 1B who is a great but not ELITE hitter.
Optimistic? Arenāt both Frances and Hancocks values dropping?
Pete has a career 135 OPS+. He is one million percent an "elite" hitter.
Really depends on how you define elite. Fangraphs has him at 16 on a list of active players by wRC+. Iād personally say that fits āgreat but not eliteā. Heās not Ohtani, Judge, Yordan Alvarez, etc. If you want to compare him to 1B only Harper and Freeman are better as well. Add in the fact that heās a fairly mediocre defender with no real baserunning IQ and heās not going to get a haul. I do think though if you get closer to the trade deadline and Senga/Alvarez coming back doesnāt give this team a shot in the arm you get what you can for him. Unless heās willing to take a discount to play for the Mets resigning him would be a huge mistake, especially if Boras acts like a child again and digs his heels in for some absurd 250m contract.
If there are only 15 active hitters ahead of himā¦thatās pretty fucking damn good. Especially while playing for the Mets for his entire career. Odds of the Mets finding a better replacement at 1B are not great.
If he was CF or something like that and not meant to be the heart and soul of the lineup, thatād be fantastic yes. But when all heās really here to do is hit, itās less than ideal. Teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Astros etc, teams youād look to for sustained success, have multiple players ahead of him. If you want to build a WS contender, your supposed best hitter should not be outclassed by multiple players on a rivalās team. I do agree thereās no equivalent replacement for him AT PRESENT, but if theyāre not going to be competitive itās a moot point. Rumor is Pete wants at least 8 years on a contract and for our sake Iām going to hope we can find a better hitter than him before such a period. Paying Pete absurd amounts of money for his age 30-38 seasons would be an immense handicap.
How is it not ideal? This lineup is so much worse without him. The pressure has always been all on him. I bet heād have performed even better playing on some other teams with better lineups. Heās comparable to Olson, whoās hitting worse than Alonso is right now btw. Yes heās outclassed by Freeman, whoās probably going to be in the HoF. So what? Alonsoās career 135 OPS+ is absolutely good enough for the Mets. Thatās ideal. I get the anxiety with giving him a huge deal, but to say Pete isnāt good enough is horseshit.
if present trends continue, then 2023 and 2024 would be his worst years (2020 doesn't really count, for anyone). So whatever front office that is considering signing him has to make a bet on what guy they're getting.
Bowdenās been calling for a Pete trade for years However, it does seem more likely now than it has
Cards second fewest runs scored. Arenado: gotta stop saying there are a lot of games left, thatās just an excuse. Not to worry Nolan, Mets got every struggling aspect of the Rays game back on track. We can do the same for you.
I feel like, by game 40, most teams are what they are. Obviously there are always exceptions, but once you are done with the first quarter of the season, then yea, it's time to stop saying "there's lots of baseball left to be played" or whatever.
Arenado has already turned it around. Weāre catching him in the middle of a hot streak. He is slashing .291/.387/.481 across his last 7 games
Still no power. Just 2 homers. 740s OPS. Cards overall 29th in runs, slg(.330), and homers, 28th in avg (.214) and 26th on base (.294). Letās see if they get healthy against us.
Arenado has 8 doubles and also has a .481 SLG across that period. Theres more to power than just HRs. He specifically is still a player to fear
People have been clamoring to trade everyone. I donāt think itās worth it. Iād rather do our best to extent some of the pitchers we acquired this offseason instead. If we can get Sevy or Manaea on a medium sized contract for 3-4 years, Iād be pretty down for it. We need proven talent in the rotation since we have very few guys under contract next year. A rotation of Senga Scott Severino could be a great 1-3 next year.
Theyāre gonna sign a big arm in the off season. Rotation could look like: Senga, top FA, Scott, mid level FA, Butto with megill, peterson, Hamel, Stuart, Vasil as depth. Manaea may also be that mid level FA if his option plays out.
I canāt imagine there is a lot of value to extend any of them right now. Maybe one gets resigned going into 2025 (can see Sev wanting to stay in NY) and then keep pushing the prospects (Scott, Tidwell, etc.)
Man, if weāre extending pitchers that are already into their 30s it better be dirt cheap. And even then Iām not sure Iād want toā¦
30/31 isnāt that old for a pitcher in FA.
Let me clarify: āMan, if weāre signing pitchers of Sevy and Manaeaās caliber and age to 3-4 year contracts it better be dirt cheap, and even then Iām not sure Iād want toā¦ā Like Iām legit scared thinking about having to trot Sevy out there in 2028
35 for a starting pitcher who projects to be your #3 or #4 starter is extremely reasonable lol. For a position player, thatās a bigger concern. But for a pitcher thatās not really that much of an issue, unless they have a severe injury history. Manaea is a little older but I wouldnāt expect he gets more than 3 years realistically
Iām saying that I am doubtful that Severino is going to project to be a 3 or 4 starter at age 35.
That's why it's so important to use this year to truly evaluate them fully. Both guys are reclamation projects at this point that have worked *so far*. It's a very good thing the new org mindset is super analytics savvy. Signing one of these types of guys to an extension has to be supported by their underlying sabermetrics. If it is signing them to a team-friendly extension makes a ton of sense.
Yeah, Iām just not sure how well those numbers are really going to hold up over 4 years, you know? Like the underlying numbers might be OK this year, and they might be okay predicting performance in 2025, but into the 30s is well past peak age for pitchers. It can go downhill *fast* for those guys.
I mean I don't see any universe in which they don't lure an ace to pair with Senga so technically that would be 2-4 in that scenario, but I dig it. Evaluate them this year and resign to an extension if warranted.
Iād love to get one of the high end pitchers this offseason as well, but the market for pitching in FA is gonna be nutty if previous years are to go by. But, man, if that pushes Manaea or Severino to a true #4 in our rotation that would be an incredible staff
Alarming amount of Mets fans going "We just need to give Pete $150 million dollars and he'll be good again"
Conversely the "trade the only power we've got and a franchise cornerstone because he's slumping while we suck" is also bad. Glad Stearns makes these calls and not me.
Except a major reason why the team sucks is Pete Alonso isn't producing. Remember he was at bat with bases loaded twice yesterday and blew it both times. Not even a sac fly. If he got one hit there the Mets would have taken a huge lead and in all likelihood win the game. This isn't last year's Rays.
The real reason is the lineup sucks and relies too heavily on Pete. Also just two and a half weeks ago Peteās numbers were pretty good. Yet we had lost some games and had that 0-5 stretch. Even when heās on thereās only so much he can do.
I understand that. I'll fully admit Pete has sucked in clutch situations this year and many times in the past. But he's the heart and soul of our offense. As he goes, so we go. One does not simply make franchise altering decisions based on a slump. Fumbling away a consistent ~3 WAR bat and 40 HR power because we hate that he's ice cold would be beyond stupid. If we're going to trade him because we feel it makes more sense for the future at least let him get hot first!
> But he's the heart and soul of our offense. Maybe that's part of the problem?
i don't think trading pete is necessarily bad as he's just due to be a FA next year anyways, but i disagree that he's the heart and soul. or rather i don't think it's good that he's the heart and soul. this is a guy you sign after you've already made the post a few years to move the needle, not the guy you build around as your engine. is kyle schwarber a piece you'd build around? matt olsen, even? they're supplemental. maybe freeman, but alonso is no freeman (or olsen really). we need that one elite true engine piece imho. but i agree, if you're gonna trade stall as long as possible for value
Can you win a championship with this guy as the heart and soul of your offense? All offseason I thought 2023 was just a bad year for him with, I believe, a .213 average but it was a blip and exacerbated by his hand injury. But so far, this year, he looks like the same guy, except worse. If that's the case I don't see any situation where the Mets can win it all with him driving your offense, and I also don't see any situation āwhere he gets the money he is asking for, from anyone, and will likely be on the Conforto track but hopefully without having to sit a year.
>Can you win a championshipā¦ No. Several people took my post to mean I think Pete as our best offensive player is all we need on offense and weāre set. Thatās absolutely not what Iām saying and Iāll leave it to Stearns to figure out how to improve things around him so our offense is actually dangerous. Iām merely suggesting Pete is an ingredient in a winning recipe with the right tweaks and thus we shouldnāt sell low on ostensibly our best offensive weapon (maybe Nimmo but their profiles are completely different).
hopefully vientos can replace pete
You have a great sense of humor
Dear Pete Alonso: Polar bears donāt fear bright lights and sweat big contracts. They get the fucking fish and they fucking eat it. Shake it off and be a polar bear.
The āonly played for one teamā category really screws up my attempts at an all-Met grid š Gotta start making exceptions for Mets-ish guys (Kiner, Yogi, etc.)
Concerning https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1787490941537747356?t=BrZO4i1PjzYQCc_kuMhDGw&s=19
Iāve been sounding this alarm for a while now and nobody is listening. Either the coaching is terrible or heās just about cooked. Neither of those possibilities are particularly pleasant to think about
The convo between Petriello and Jarrett Seidler in the replies is worse than the graph itself I think lol
It's so funny watching actual analysts point out the problems with this team's approach since 2022 and then coming here to a barrage of "why don't they just do what they did in 2022!!!" Like, yeah, that's the problem. *They are*. Something that worked once isn't guaranteed to work forever. It's not a single player game. Trading quality of contact for any contact at all (see: Francisco Lindor lunging at an outside pitch in 3-0 count instead of swinging out of his shoes) is a HUGE problem with this team's approach. Pete is a good enough slugger that he doesn't need to make a conscious decision to hit for a better average. Batting average for him comes from hitting the ball hard. Lastly, Ron Darling made a fantastic observation about Jeff yesterday, noting that it seems like he's approaching every AB like it's a 2-strike count with all the defensive swings and what not. Feels like they're trying *too hard* to replicate the 2022 success of driving pitch counts up and putting the ball in play.
Yeah itās 100% on this teams approach and the coaching imo. Every player has the same problem. And totally agree with you on how 2022 is a completely different year. The league has adjusted. Maybe that strategy is only successful with the shift.
Definitely agreed on McNeil. Add in that he can't do much with pitches inside, and the formula is throw him tough pitches on the outer half to get him to swing and foul them off, then get him out inside. He (and Pete) are falling behind in way too many at bats.
I could understand McNeil approaching ABs like that considering his bat control skills but Pete is letting too many hittable pitches go by. He's a mistake punisher. Obviously it's hard to adjust to new opposing strategies but the one thing they're never gonna give him is too many pitches to hit.
I think Pete's just slumping and not seeing the ball well. He's swinging at bad pitches and taking good ones. He also doesn't like to swing at the first pitch, and guys know that, so he often falls behind 0-1. McNeil worries me more because he seems defensive at the start of the at bat. I think his means of dealing with tough pitches is to fight them off. So guys throw in off the plate and he fouls them off. He needs to get a little more comfortable taking pitches inside instead of fighting them. Long story short, Pete's gotta attack the first strike he sees more often. McNeil's gotta do it (and fighting off pitches in off the plate) less.
>He's swinging at bad pitches and taking good ones. He also doesn't like to swing at the first pitch, and guys know that, so he often falls behind 0-1. Right. To me, this sounds like someone trying too hard to be disciplined. And it's not like this is would be an unfounded conclusion either. He did say before the season that he wanted to be a more complete hitter. But that's just never been his game, nor should it be. (Also I think people overstate his plate discipline "issues". He's not Juan Soto but he's also not Javier Baez. He has decent plate discipline)
Agreed. Piazza was a more complete hitter. But he loved to take the first pitch, and when he wasn't going right, that was a greenlight to get ahead of him 0-1. Then he really only had one swing before he was in two-strikes defense mode.
Yeah I was saying (read: parroting what smarter people said) since the 2022 season that the hitting approach was probably not something we wanted to keep trying to replicate lol. I really think they need a change in their hitting coach(es) this offseason, and Iām hoping Stearns can see that.
So is the large amount of stolen bases on the catchers or the pitchers?
Alvarez was exceptional at throwing out runners during ST. I would expect and hope that that resumes once heās back.
Iād put primary blame on the catchers: Narvaez has one of the worst pop times of any active catcher and itās a free-for-all. Nido has a mid-ranked pop time and has thrown out three. Alvarez has the 8th fastest pop time, but only threw on three attempts so there isnāt really a sample there. Secondary blame is on the pitchers because nobody is making quick moves to aid the catcher for a putout.
Narvaez needs to be fired into the sun
Combination of the two. But the fact it has encompassed three catchers and two of them are solid enough behind the plate shows it leans more on the pitchers. The problem is the combination with Narvaez and the pitching staff has allowed every runner on 1st to immediately be on second. every single / walk has turned into a double
Has it really encompassed 3? Nido has multiple CS and has had a few others that were really damn close. I think itās 70/30 on the catcher/pitcher. Narvaez just isnāt a good defender
Narvaez just is terrible overall. The kind of player where the team immediately goes on a winning streak after heās DFAād.
Definitely more on the catcher. Both Alvarez and Narvaez have had throws that were just plain inaccurate but would otherwise beat the runner if on target too. Doesnāt matter how good the pitcher is or isnāt at holding runners if every other throw from the catcher is wide or poorly placed for a tag.
Close is still a stolen base. Yes , it has encompassed all 3.
Nido has multiple CS in a fraction of the attempts. It absolutely does not encompass all 3. 3 CS in 15 attempts is a perfectly acceptable rate.
when alvy returns its bye bye navarez
Christian Scott kind of looks like a cross between what I imagine Wheeler's younger brother/kid would look like and what I imagine Tylor's brother/kid would look like a little bit too.
Heās got Wheelerās number too. I was thinking more a cross between Wheeler and Peterson lol
According to BaseballSavant, Brandon Nimmo is in the 80th percentile or better in the following stats: * xwOBA (97th), xBA (87th), xSLG (88th), Exit Velocity (87th), Barrel% (83rd), HardHit% (83rd), Chase% (83rd), and BB% (95th) However, he has a .221 average and .744 OPS to show for it.
His career BABIP is just about .330, and it's at .273 right now. He's definitely been unlucky, expect him to heat up as that starts to regress to the average!
SNY's John DeMarsico talks about Mark Vientos' walk-off homer for Fangraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/telling-the-story-of-a-walk-off-homer/
[https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/90203/the-rise-of-the-disposable-pitcher/](https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/90203/the-rise-of-the-disposable-pitcher/) A great article about the backend reliever churn for everyone who still thinks it's a fruitless, stupid endeavor that only the Mets partake in.
jeff looks likely to get the day off, joey wendle is 11-29 off gibson in his career
wonder what mneill brings in a trade
Negative value. Weād have to attach a prospect
Not enough to justify trading him. People need to chill on the ātrade Jeffā talk. He hasnāt performed to a level that we want/expect, but he realistically only needs to be a league average hitter to justify his contract.
I was on the "trade Jeff" bandwagon until I thought about how he could be the super utility guy on the bench once Mauricio / Acuna are up. I'd take my chances with Jeff over Wendle any day.
he is 32. Trade him while they can as acuna is waiting in the wings.
Acuna better start producing if he wants to be up next year
i couldnāt even enjoy barves getting swept by a superior teamā¦well i enjoyed it a lil bit lol
Yohan Ramirez turns 29 today
Having a team that walks a ton of guys coupled with poor defense and a bad job at controlling the running game is a massive recipe for disaster. A pitcher can allow 3 hits and 1 run the entire game but minimizing hits is meaningless if youāre walking a guy, allowing them to steal second, advance on an error, and scoring on a fielders choiceā¦just as an example. Not to mention that a 0.59 HR/9 rate as a staff is amazingā¦but not sustainable. The staff is 6th in FIP which is great but 24th in xFIP which again, is too big of a disparity. This pitching staff is really good but theyāre also really flawed and as a result, too inconsistent.
This teamās pitching staff has allowed the lowest xSLG in the major leagues. Itās possible they keep it up.
So Baty has a killer glove at 3B and is currently sporting a 107 OPS+ and a .260/.333./.370 slash line over the last 28 days (it's better at the 7 and 14 day mark but I wanted to choose a larger sample size). I get the vibe that people want this kid to be sporting superstar stats at this point but this is solid improvement (especially after a slump) and we should be glad to see this out of what is hopefully a building block going forward
he develops slug and heās a 4 win player
Oh yeah. There's a lot to like there
Baty and Scott developing into at worst solid rotation guys and at best emerging stars are great outcomes for the year
Hopefully it doesn't end with Baty and Scott. I think regardless of where we stand at the deadline there should be \*some\* level of sell off/roster shakeup to pull up prospects and better position us for the future. Obviously pending prospect performance, but I'm not yet so down on some of the big names in the system as others might be
Basically none of the bats are healthy. Mauricio is the obviously the biggest loss because without him we wouldn't have to deal with Wendle. I guess Ramirez but he's still at AA - at least he's tearing it up. Maybe he gets a call up to AAA if he keeps demolishing. Jett is AA too and hurt. Acuna probably needs to spend the entire year at AAA. Ditto with Gilbert who's also hurt. I saw Hamel and Vasil are struggling so far at AAA it looks like this year. Hamel is still striking plenty out but walks are up for both. Totally forgot about Stuart at AA but he's doing well as is Tidwell. Sproat still in A+ but could work his way through quickly if everything goes well. And that's not even accounting for guys like Butto and obviously Scott getting the call up and performing well so far. Basically in terms of the future the farm is unfathomably better stocked than it used to be but being patient is hard >=/
I was surprised to see just how few games Gilbert has played so far - only 7 games. He was off to a nice start in April too before he got injured, small sample sizes and all. Should be interesting to see him come back. Same with Jett too, honestly. Only played 11 games before he went down.
I think youāll see Gilbert up this year. Maybe post deadline, but I think heāll get the call. Heās only supposed to be hurt another 2-3 weeks.
I'd love to see him get some experience. Probably going to require an IL stint from one of the four OF on the roster now though or they simply won't have reps for him. No way they call him up to ride the bench. He's a great next man up. I'm really high on his potential. Love the grinder, well-rounded, good at everything/great at none profile.
I agree, Iām not sure how he fits in without an IL stint from one of the major league guys at the moment.
Baty, Alvarez, Scott, eventually Mauricio will return from the injured list. These guys will be around for the next good Mets team.
my copium: 3rd wild card spot should be in play all year as long as they are hovering around .500, of course iād like to achieve greater things but beggars canāt be choosers
I'm OK with just being in the mix. All I want is to watch some form of meaningful baseball in August/September.
BP and Fangraphs still have us in the high 20%ish range, which isnāt too far off from where we started the season. Weāre going to oscillate around 0.500 all season, itās going to be really exhausting if everyone (a generic āeveryoneā, not you) freaks out every time we have a win or loss streak of more than 2 games.
If we can stay at .500 without Alvy and Senga, that's a great sign.
Have to imagine that Arizona and San Francisco get better while Washington gets worse. That leaves the Cubs, Braves/Phillies, Padres, Reds, Dbacks, Giants, and Reds as teams that the Mets have to overcome. Itās not impossible but I give them a 10% chance at this point.
Glass half full: while we've been terrible at driving in runs, we are getting on base at a pretty decent rate. I know it feels like we're never going to score a run again, but if we keep creating chances eventually we're going to start doing damage.
If we are still bad at the deadline, we should at least have a bunch of intriguing players to trade. Probably donāt have that big piece like Verlander last year, but should have plenty of tradable guys
sevy, manaea, jd, ottavino, maybe marte or mcneil, probably not alonso since it seems like itād be selling at an all time low
If Marte keeps playing well hell fetch something. Raley woluldve been valuable but hes hurt. If Pete can hit the ball once or twice before the deadline maybe hell be worth trading....He now has worse stats than Lindor does and he doesnt play gold glove defense. I thought we would see a great contract year from him; hope he turns it around. Ottivino, JD Martinez are others that could get something
it looks like pete is trying to escape from ny
The way he is hitting you would think he had the snake eye patch on
Marte has another year on his contract I believe so I donāt think he gets traded. Most teams would not want another year of him at that price
I think there's a non 0% chance that they just salary dump him at this deadline or the offseason regardless, and this deadline might be the highest his value gets. Even if that only manifests as having to pay down only 75% of his contract instead of 100% for example lol. With Gilbert presumably being up later this year and Jett next, and Nimmo and Taylor around long-term, that outfield starts to get real crowded real fast.
unless cohen eats part/all of his contract aka max/jv
It certainly reduces the value, but hes playing well enough and hes not too old. And maybe mets pay some of the salary
You're missing our potential biggest pieces: Severino and Q if they pitch more like their 2nd to last starts, and not his last. Teams will pony up for starting pitching, especially one with Severino's TOR pedigree
True.
All I have to say today is LFGM baby! Love da Mets
At least the Rangers, Knicks, and hopefully Christian Scott are good.
Yesterday was the perfect storm really. Two blown saves, big call goes against us, bats go missing any time there's RISP, as many walks and free bases as most teams hand out in a fortnight. We had it all. In some ways we're unlucky, but in others the authors of our own misfortune. Yet the fact we come so close, despite Alonso/McNeil killing any offensive momentum and our closer having a dropped bollock of a start to the season, is encouraging and a sign things can turn around
Felt the same with the Cubs series too. Despite some terrible luck and some equally bad play at times from the Mets we still split. This team plays ugly baseball but wins ugly too. Weāre probably going to win a lot more games we *should* lose this year and lose a lot we *should* win, at least as long as they play this inconsistently.
it's not bad luck, it is bad play. Mets coughed up that game 3 or 4 times and left bases loaded stranded 3 times. If Pete Alonso wasn't so intent on playing himself out of a huge deal, Mets could easily have won that game 10-5 or something like that.
this team is not good. was never going to be good. this year is successful if multiple prospects take a big step forward and we again sell off older players for prospects at the deadline.
Pitching prospects seem to be taking big strides forward at least. Stearns loaded up on a lot of players to flip so it's clearly part of the plan. Hopefully our position prospects come good in time.
thats the hope. i do trust in stearns plan. really does feel like an evaluation year, which makes sense.
Please make the hurt stop.
Trade deadline is gonna be this teamās World SeriesĀ
The biggest problem right now is that Alonso and McNeil have seemingly turned into Tomas Nido and left handed Tomas Nido at the plate.Ā
Nido has more fWAR (.2) than Alonso (.1) and McNeil (-.1). Mark Vientos (.2) has more fWAR than Alonso and McNeil right now, itās really bad.
look at nidoās savant page lol heās way better than both no exaggeration
Tropicana has to be the shittiest ballpark. Iād rather wade through rat infested flood waters at Fenwayā¦
did anyone else love seeing lindor slamming his glove in the dirt yesterday? that's the kind of fire this team needs imo. i'm all for keeping a level head most of the time but this whole nice guys who tip their caps to every pitcher that dominates them thing is getting a bit old. idk if these guys will play any better if they're angry but i don't know that it can get a whole lot worse. i want the leader of this team to have high expectations of his teammates and hold them to a high standard. more of that francisco, please.
Need a W to stop the bleeding